Presented by Louw Kannemeyer, engineering executive at SANRAL. Delivered during a Transport Forum Special Interest Group 'Roads and the Economy' event in Johannesburg, South Africa on 14 February 2019.

1. The Future of National Roads: The 2030 Roads Plan
and A sustainable Funding Model
Louw Kannemeyer
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2. Africa’s 5 Transport Challenges
According to the Africa Transport Policy Programme (SSATP):
1. High rate of road fatalities.
2. Increasingly congested cities with poor urban planning.
• Urbanisation rate, the highest in the world
• 60% of all Africans will live in cities in 2050 – RSA 65.8% in 2017 – +75% (2050)
• 4 billion Africans in 2100
3. Poor connectivity hampering regional trade.
4. Weak capacity and poor governance.
5. Climate change.

3. Where is the rest of the world?
Compact Cities:
High density, mixed land use spaces
Short distances, public transport core, low car use
Integrated Transport Systems:
Extensive rail and road based PT services
Reliable services, seamless inter-modal interfaces
Smart Roads:
Smart Cars, V2V, V2I, P2V, I2P, H2V
ATMS, Electric Vehicles, Solar Power Roads
Climate Change Resilience:
Carbon emissions – NO diesel cars from 2019
Infrastructure – Vulnerability Assessments, Spatial Plans,
Design Standards

4. World 64 285 009
1 United States 6 586 610
2 India 4 689 842
3 China 4 237 500
4 Brazil 1 751 868
5 Japan 1 210 251
6 Canada 1 042 300
7 Russia 982 000
8 France 951 200
9 Australia 823 217
10 South Africa 750 000
11 Spain 681 298
12 Germany 644 480
13 Sweden 572 900
14 Italy 487 700
15 Indonesia 437 759
16 Turkey 426 906
… … …
34 Dem Rep of Congo 153 497
45 Zimbabwe 97 267
54 Zambia 91 440
55 Tanzania 91 049
70 Madagascar 65 663
80 Angola 51 429
72 Namibia 64 189
98 Mozambique 30 331
104 Botswana 25 798
122 Malawi 15 451
148 Lesotho 7 438
161 Swaziland 3 594
173 Mauritius 2 066
193 Seychelles 508
1 449 720
Rank Country
Road
length
(km)
SADC Total
South Africa has the 10th
longest total and 18th longest
paved road network in the
world
The National Development Plan
states that roads represent one
of the largest public
infrastructure investments in
most countries.
RSA road
replacement cost
>R2 trillion
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5. Freight flow on road and rail (10th State of Logistics Survey 2014)
Also important to note that of the person trips recorded in National
Household Travel Survey, 2013, by transport modes are as follow:
 Minibus taxi’s (41.6%)
 Private Vehicles (23.4%)
 Walking (18.5%) – Along road corridors
 Busses (10.2%)
 Trains (4.4%)
 Other (1.9%)
Roads account for 87.9% of Freight and 93.7% of Person
Trips
Mode Choice Factor Percentage
Travel time 32.6
Travel Cost 26.1
Flexibility 9.2
Other 32.1
South Africa Road Use

6. 6
South Africa Road Congestion - 2017
Cape Town Most Congested – Congestion Increasing in All Cities

7. 7
TOMTOM Award Winner - Johannesburg

8. Road User Cost is up to 90% of Total Life Cycle Transportation Cost
Road User Cost – Fuel, Oil, Tyres, Maintenance, Depreciation, Accidents, Time, Cargo Damage
Distance Travel in 1 hour: Very Good = 100km vs Very Poor = 20 to 25 km
8
Road User Costs

9. Logistics costs – University of
Stellenbosch 2016

10. Cost contribution per transport mode
(2014)

11. 11

12. 12
Economic Development Follows Road Investment
Allandale 2018

13. 13
Menlyn 2007

14. 14
Menlyn 2018
Economic Development Follows Road Investment

15. 15
NATMAP 2050

16. SANRAL Key Projects
16

17. SANRAL Key Projects: Status
Project
Initial Capital Costs
(R’000 2018R)
Current Status
GFIP Phase 2 (New Routes) R 30 407 231 Nothing - Not declared national roads (Gauteng), cannot proceed
until ownership/funding is resolved
GFIP Phase 3 (Upgrades) R 20 833 089 Nothing - Not declared national roads (Gauteng), cannot proceed
until ownership/funding is resolved
N1/N2 Winelands R 10 992 998 Toll Declaration set aside, cannot proceed until funding is
resolved
N2 Botrivier to Port Elizabeth R 13 301 597 Basic Planning, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA
N2 Wild Coast (Ndwalane to Mtamvuna River) - SIP
3
R 9 942 814 Construction funded by Fiscus, 1 Bridge Awarded, 1 in Tender
Adjudication, Haul Road Construction 98% Completed, Road
Detail design in Progress, Awaiting approval to proceed with
Intent to Toll for Operations, as required by National Treasury
N2 Durban South to North - SIP 2 R 10 032 374 Detail design, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA
N2 Richards Bay to Ermelo R 8 595 285 Detail Design, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA
N3 Pietermaritzburg to Durban - SIP 2 R 22 140 161 Detail design, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA
N3 Van Reenen Pass (Government Contribution) -
SIP 2
R 5 300 000 N3 De Beers replaced with New Van Reenen Development,
cannot proceed until Government funding contribution required
to amend the concession agreement is resolved
N4/PWV3 extension Pampoen nek R 2 025 942 Pampoen Nek Construction Started, no funding for PW3 section
N12 Johannesburg to Klerksdorp R 3 223 406 Basic Planning, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA
N12 Benoni to Witbank R 957 971 Basic Planning, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA
R72/N2 Port Elizabeth to East London R 7 435 416 Detail Design, Phased Construction Started , progress subject to
budget availability
R300 Cape Town Ring Road R 5 736 688 Nothing - Extensions not declared national roads
R573 Moloto Road - SIP 1 R 3 902 176 Detail Design, Phased Construction Started in Limpopo and
Mpumalanga . Gauteng Part not declared national road, Province
indicating no funding available for construction
Note: Most of these key capacity expansion projects (R154 bn – 2018R) were previously planned to occur through toll
financing, if no longer possible, then SANRAL will require additional funding from other sources to enable

18. 18
76% of paved network older than original 20 year design life, resulting in a high risk for accelerated deterioration
under poor preventative maintenance regime as with most road authorities in South Africa. Major CAPEX
investment required in future to strengthen the network
National Road Pavement Age
2224 km
12964 km

19. Northern
Hemisphere
Waterproof
Layer
Local Street
R4m to R8m/km Farm To Market
R8m to R20/km
National Road
R20m to R140m/km
Increased Number of Heavy Axles
Repetitions over 20-30 year Design
Life
South Africa
SOUTH AFRICAN PAVEMENT DESIGN
(10 to 40 mm) (100 to 400 mm)
G1
Interstate Road
19
South African Pavement Design 40-60% cheaper by using natural gravels, but these natural gravels more
sensitive to moisture ingress - not zero maintenance design.
Very short path for crack to propagate through thin surfacing – making preventative maintenance strategy
crucial as at SANRAL.

20. SANRAL FUNDING
TOLL - 2,952 km (13%)
• SANRAL Toll
• Section 33(2) of SANRAL Act
• Not for profit
• Funded through bonds & loans –
capital market
• Government Guaranteed – SZ and
HWAY bonds
• Non-guarantee - NRA bonds, EIB loan,
ECA loan
• Borrowing limit set by Treasury
• Receive toll income (CPI Adjustment) TO
REPAY LOANS and Future Operational and
Maintenance Costs
• Concession Agreements (PPP)
• Off Balance Sheet (1,271 km)
• 30 Year Period
• Receive toll income (CPI Adjustment) TO
REPAY LOANS and Future Operational and
Maintenance Costs
NON-TOLL - 19,262 km (87%)
• Receive Government Grant
(Vote 35 - DOT)
• No borrowing allowed
• Co-funded projects where
appropriate
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One Company
Going Concern Measured
Toll + Non-Toll

21. Non Toll Budget Allocation
As noticed current budget kilometre levels are way below peak allocations during the 1970’s
and mid 1980’s when most national road network construction occurred.

23. R 0
R 5 000 000
R 10 000 000
R 15 000 000
R 20 000 000
R 25 000 000
R 30 000 000
R 35 000 000
R 40 000 000
Rand('000)
Financial Year
SANRAL Funding Trend
Toll Non Toll Total - Actual Total - Plan Note:4% Annual Non Toll Budget Increase
R13.8 bn

24. 24
Project
Initial Capital Costs
(R’000 2018R)
Project Length
(km)
Direct Job
Opportunities
Direct Jobs
Full Time
Equivalents
Direct SMME
Opportunities
GFIP Phase 2 (New Routes) R 30 407 231 158 79 728 34 664 3 439
GFIP Phase 3 (Upgrades) R 20 833 089
223 54 624 23 750 2 356
N1/N2 Winelands R 10 992 998
171 28 824 12 532 1 243
N2 Botrivier to Port Elizabeth R 13 301 597
492 34 877 15 164 1 504
N2 Wild Coast (Ndwalane to Mtamvuna River) - SIP 3 R 9 942 814
113 26 070 11 335 1 125
N2 Durban South to North - SIP 2 R 10 032 374
48.6 26 305 11 437 1 135
N2 Richards Bay to Ermelo R 8 595 285
421 22 537 9 799 972
N3 Pietermaritzburg to Durban - SIP 2 R 22 140 161
87 58 052 25 240 2 504
N3 Van Reenen Pass (Government Contribution) - SIP 2 R 5 300 000
110 13 897 6 042 599
N4/PWV3 extension Pampoen nek R 2 025 942
49 5 312 2 310 229
N12 Johannesburg to Klerksdorp R 3 223 406
136 8 452 3 675 365
N12 Benoni to Witbank R 957 971
92 2 512 1 092 108
R72/N2 Port Elizabeth to East London R 7 435 416
540 19 496 8 476 841
R300 Cape Town Ring Road R 5 736 688
80 15 042 6 540 649
R573 Moloto Road - SIP 1 R 3 902 176
87 10 232 4 448 441
TOTAL R 154 827 149 2 808 405 957 176 503 17 511
Direct Job Opportunities - Actual Individuals per ID No on site - Based on SANRAL average over time - 262 per R100 million project value
Direct Jobs Full Time Equivalents - Actual Hours Worked on site by Individuals divided by 1840 hours/year - Based on SANRAL average over
time - 114 per R100 million project value
Direct SMME Opportunities - Actual SMME working on Site - Based on SANRAL average over time - 11.3 per R100 million project value
SANRAL Key Projects: LOST Job/SMME Opportunities

25. Road Budget Requirement
Notes:
1. The estimated funding requirement to sustain the South African Road Network
is R65,8 bn (R2013) – R86 bn (R2018) per annum.
2. To address the identified backlogs as follow:
a) strengthening for paved roads over 5 year period,
b) re-gravel roads over 10 year period,
c) gravel road surfacing over 10 year period,
d) capacity expansion over 10 year period
3. Will require an additional R23.3 billion (R2013) per annum.
4. Total Budget Requirement = R89,1 billion (R2013) – R116.1bn (R2018)
5. Allocation for Roads in 2017/18 = R52 billion (44.5%)
6. WHAT CAN WE AFFORD AND HOW DO WE PRIORITISE ?
COTO 2013 Estimate (VCI)
Sustain Backlogs Total
SANRAL 21 403 R 12 189 580 000 R 12 877 984 000 R 25 067 564 000 R 11 916 947 000 47.54%
Provinces - 9 190 693 R 21 593 816 160 R 9 593 104 320 R 31 186 920 480 R 20 155 000 000 64.63%
Metros - 8 61 436 R 13 270 782 971 R 343 788 528 R 13 614 571 499 R 15 158 000 000 111.34%
Municipalities 344 556 R 18 779 265 100 R 480 374 700 R 19 259 639 800 R 2 533 000 000 13.15%
Totals km 618 088 R 65 833 444 231 R 23 295 251 548 R 89 128 695 779 R 49 762 947 000 55.83%
Maintenance Budget Per Year for 5 Years
2014/15Estimated Budget Requirement per Year
Authority
Total
Network
%Allocation
25

26. AVAILABLE ROAD BUDGET
Notes:
Current Fuel Levy R3.37/l for petrol (77.5%) and R3.22/l for diesel (22.5%)
* To be confirmed by treasury, no growth allowed due to vehicle technology impact.
** Income collected by provinces and not ring fenced for roads only.
*** Excludes indirect allocations made from DORA allocations by authorities or raised through rates and taxes at municipal level.
Currently no additional budget available from Fuel Levy – Are we spending available budgets efficiently
Sustain – R86 billion (2018) will require an additional R 1.51 per litre of fuel = R4.88
Total – R116.1 billion (2018) will require an additional R 2.84 per litre of fuel = R6.21
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Description
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Income R 50 862 R 55 816 R 64 492 R 70 986 R 79 547 R 79 547 R 79 547 R 79 547
Fuel Levy (Estimates)* R 43 685 R 48 467 R 56 700 R 62 779 R 71 340 R 71 340 R 71 340 R 71 340
Vehicle Licence Fees (Estimates)** R 7 177 R 7 349 R 7 792 R 8 207 R 8 207 R 8 207 R 8 207 R 8 207
Direct Allocations*** R 52 372 R 56 532 R 60 078 R 63 942 R 67 020 R 67 239 R 72 357 R 75 834
National - SANRAL Non Toll R 10 497 R 11 917 R 12 497 R 13 490 R 15 481 R 15 119 R 18 745 R 19 786
Provincial - Road Maintenance Grant R 9 126 R 9 361 R 9 952 R 10 203 R 10 754 R 11 036 R 11 482 R 12 113
Provincial - Public Transport Operations Grant R 4 783 R 4 832 R 5 052 R 5 400 R 5 723 R 5 990 R 6 326 R 6 750
Provincial - EPWP Integrated Grant for Provinces R 356 R 349 R 357 R 402 R 424 R 416 R 451 R 476
Local - General fuel levy sharing with metros R 9 613 R 10 190 R 10 659 R 11 224 R 11 785 R 12 469 R 13 167 R 14 027
Local - Municipal Infrastructure Grant (12.975% Roads) R 2 533 R 2 533 R 2 604 R 2 327 R 2 495 R 1 982 R 2 041 R 2 154
Local - Public transport infrastructure grant R 4 669 R 4 968 R 5 098 R 5 593 R 6 360 R 6 253 R 6 114 R 6 450
Local - Public Transport Network Grant R 745 R 903 R 1 043 R 1 362 R 0 R 0 R 0 R 0
Local - Rural roads asset management systems grant R 52 R 75 R 98 R 102 R 107 R 107 R 114 R 120
Local - EPWP Integrated Grant for Municipalities R 632 R 595 R 619 R 664 R 716 R 692 R 742 R 783
Provincial Roads - Equitable Share Allocation R 9 366 R 10 809 R 12 099 R 13 175 R 13 175 R 13 175 R 13 175 R 13 175
Surplus/Shortfall R -1 510 R -716 R 4 414 R 7 044 R 12 527 R 12 308 R 7 190 R 3 713
MTEF Period (Rm)
National Treasury Direct Allocations (Excludes Equitable Share Allocations)

27. Fuel Price Comparison (2018 Bloomberg)
Affordability - Percentage of a
day’s wages needed to buy a
litre of fuel.
Income Spent - Percentage of
personal income spent each year
filling up. Fuel consumption are
based on UN data for motor
gasoline by road in 2013
Just comparing the price of
fuel in South Africa to rest
of world, ranked 19th
highest, result in the view
that room to increase exist,
but when you consider the
affordability 56th and income
spent 60th ranking that view
changes !
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Country
Gasoline Price
(R/l) Dec 2016
Daily
Income
Annual
Litres/Driver
Affordability (% of
day wages)
Income Spent (%
Annual Salary)
Ranking
Price
Ranking
Affodability
Ranking
Income Spent
Venezuela R0.01 R62.95 417.52 0.00% 0.00% 1 1 1
Iran R2.03 R113.75 307.45 1.78% 1.50% 2 29 38
Kuwait R4.96 R1247.82 1003.10 0.40% 1.09% 3 2 25
Nigeria R5.84 R72.23 93.24 8.08% 2.06% 4 58 49
Egypt R6.20 R100.32 102.64 6.18% 1.73% 5 55 43
Malaysia R7.64 R417.28 548.42 1.83% 2.74% 6 30 58
Saudi Arabia R7.80 R911.04 1001.88 0.86% 2.34% 7 10 53
United Arab Emirates R8.40 R1630.18 1089.44 0.52% 1.53% 8 5 39
Russia R9.40 R387.30 321.72 2.43% 2.13% 9 35 51
Pakistan R9.83 R48.12 45.84 20.44% 2.56% 10 61 56
United States R9.84 R2457.32 1634.31 0.40% 1.79% 11 3 44
Colombia R10.64 R239.80 112.63 4.44% 1.36% 12 49 36
Indonesia R10.66 R152.14 52.49 7.01% 1.00% 13 57 23
Lesotho R10.82
Namibia R12.13
Botswana R12.18
Swaziland R12.88
Canada R12.98 R1738.73 1247.56 0.75% 2.55% 14 8 55
Australia R13.20 R2080.21 735.80 0.63% 1.28% 15 6 33
Philippines R13.69 R122.85 59.18 11.14% 1.80% 16 59 45
India R14.69 R79.36 24.25 18.51% 1.23% 17 60 31
Thailand R14.85 R287.64 130.97 5.16% 1.85% 18 54 46
South Africa R14.95 R234.32 211.04 6.38% 3.68% 19 56 60
Mexico R14.97 R376.24 364.07 3.98% 3.96% 20 47 61
China R14.98 R362.27 45.97 4.13% 0.52% 21 48 6
Argentina R15.43 R319.08 170.66 4.84% 2.25% 22 53 52
Turkey R16.00 R331.89 37.84 4.82% 0.50% 23 51 5
Brazil R16.08 R332.87 208.38 4.83% 2.75% 24 52 59
Switzerland R22.79 R3275.02 393.84 0.70% 0.75% 50 7 13
Portugal R23.14 R880.60 139.87 2.63% 1.00% 52 38 22
Sweden R23.21 R2068.64 327.57 1.12% 1.00% 53 15 21
Finland R23.32 R1902.42 340.25 1.23% 1.14% 54 20 27
Israel R23.87 R1548.29 464.41 1.54% 1.96% 55 26 48
Denmark R24.43 R2324.26 294.35 1.05% 0.85% 56 14 15
Netherlands R24.57 R2011.21 316.84 1.22% 1.06% 57 19 24
Greece R24.66 R768.61 302.65 3.21% 2.65% 58 44 57
Italy R25.00 R1305.16 163.05 1.92% 0.85% 59 31 16
Norway R26.10 R3028.62 181.70 0.86% 0.43% 60 11 4
Hong Kong R28.83 R1896.87 84.87 1.52% 0.36% 61 25 3
Zimbabwe R46.45

28. FUTURE - ROADS FUNDING
• Insufficient
• Current sources of funding – Fiscus (Fuel Levy/License) or Tolls
• Resistance to Tolls, what other option then for funding ?
• Old (11 L/100km), New (6 L/100km), Hybrid (2 L/100km), Electric (0 L/100km) ?
• Old (R37/100km), New (R20/100km), Hybrid (R6.7/100km), Electric (R0/100km)
• Despite vehicles occupying the same road space, the older vehicles (Poor) subsidising New
vehicles (Rich)
28
Need to Find Long Term Funding Solution – GPS Usage Based ?
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
14 000 000
16 000 000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
TotalRegisteredVehicles(eNATIS)
FuelSalesinYear('000)
Year
Petrol (77.5% of vehicles) (-3,32%) Diesel (22.5% of vehicles) Total Vehicles (+35,7%)

29. 29
1. What road network length can we sustain and at what
condition level ?
2. How do we balance mobility/access/development needs ?
3. Land Use Management - Densification
4. Private versus Public Transport – Provide Alternatives ?
5. Charging for road use in a manner that is equitable and
transparent ?
6. How do we incorporate impact of future technologies ?
7. Getting policies with buy-in from all that can be implemented ?
8. ???
Questions That Need to be Answered

30. THANK YOU
www.sanral.co.za
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