The decline in global oil prices that began in the summer of 2014 carries with it a number of risks in assembling a whole range of major oil and gas projects, including shale gas extraction projects, deep-water offshore projects and projects in the Arctic shelf.
In these conditions, despite the ongoing surplus of global oil production in relation to consumption, the question nevertheless arises: how can we maintain current production levels in the medium and long term and ensure growth in order to meet world demand?
According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, by 2040 energy demand will be 40–60 per cent greater than in 2010. Oil will continue to play a leading role in the global energy balance, accounting for 25–27 per cent of the total supply, with gas making up 24–26 per cent (compared to 35 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively, today).1 A large proportion of oil and gas production by 2040 will take place at deposits that have not yet been explored.
Under these circumstances, taking the projected volume of the Arctic shelf’s undiscovered oil and gas reserves into account, the estimated 90 billion barrels of oil and 47 trillion cubic metres of natural gas,2 offshore oil and gas resources in the Arctic could, in the medium and long term, play significant role both in maintaining current oil and gas production levels and in ensuring growth in the future.
Is Deep Water Oil Drilling a National Security IssueZiad K Abdelnour
Why are oil companies like British Petroleum being allowed to drill so deeply in hazardous conditions under the Gulf? In other words, why has the government been so supportive of deep water drilling in the Gulf?
Is Deep Water Oil Drilling a National Security IssueZiad K Abdelnour
Why are oil companies like British Petroleum being allowed to drill so deeply in hazardous conditions under the Gulf? In other words, why has the government been so supportive of deep water drilling in the Gulf?
Microsoft word new base 672 special 25 august 2015Khaled Al Awadi
ttached FYI ( NewBase Special 25 August 2015 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• New Gas Reserves Discovered in Turkmenistan
• UAE Mubadala in talks with Russia's Rosneft on east Siberian fields
• Libya oil production at 350,000 to 400,000 bpd
• Xcite looking to cut price for Bentley development
• Angola: Cobalt International sells offshore Angola blocks to Sonangol
• Philippines’ coal-power plans unsettle investors
• Growing global liquids inventories reflect lower crude oil prices
• Oil rebounds after sharp losses, but China worries weigh
• Refiners face decade long global gasoline glut
• Water management key to achieving sustainable development goals
• UK economy vulnerable to China market fallout, Osborne says
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
LNG Supply System for Nuclear Plant- Cunico CorpCunico Corp
Within 10 years the majority of shipping vessels will run on LNG...a cleaner, alternative fuel source. The newest innovation in LNG carrier engine design, M-type, electronically controlled, gas injection (ME-GI) engines, optimize the capability of slow speed engines by running directly off BOG (removing the need to reliquefy the gas) or utilizing fuel oil, and ME-GI propulsion results in less fuel consumption.
Environmental legislation is currently impacting the marine market segment. Ships were traditionally powered by Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), which produces high levels of harmful pollutants. LNG is one of the only fuel source able to comply with the environmental legislation.
2019 Election| LNG| Natural Resources| Canada| August 2019paul young cpa, cga
Canada is one of the top exporters of Natural Gas
Canada lacks the LNG capacity to expand LNG exports
United States continues to expand its export market for its LNG - https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2018/08/05/despite-trade-war-u-s-natural-gas-exports-booming-to-record-highs/#173faff614ea
Canada regulatory process will get messier if bill C-69 becomes law - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/what-bill-c-69-means-for-industry~1483271
The first quarter 2013 report for Norse Energy, an exploration and production company with 130,000 acres of oil and gas leases in New York State. Because of NY's now nearly 5-year moratorium on fracking and horizontal drilling, Norse is in bankruptcy and very close to closing their doors. Can you say "I Love NY?" How about "NY is Open for Business?" Norse may not concur.
Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology
Dept. of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering
MSc in Oil & Gas Technology
“Oil Trading”
“Cyprus: An update on gas exploration and reserves”
Supervisor: N. Kontinakis
January 2014
Lyes Boudiaf. Founder & President of Isly Holdings. Algeria. Lyes Boudiaf has been decorated as knight of the honorary Order of Merit of the State of Portugal
Over the last years relations between Russia and the US have significantly deteriorated in the majority of cooperation areas. However, Russia-US interaction in the Arctic remains largely shielded from the general climate of mistrust.
Given the current strained relationship, it is realistic to expect that particularly in the short term Russia—US cooperation on Arctic issues is easier to improve, and thus more likely to be expected within multilateral frameworks, such as the Arctic Council, International Maritime Organization, or ad hoc forums, rather than through bilateral formats.
The Working Paper focuses on the US and Russia’s interests, challenges and opportunities for maintaining and consolidating a cooperative relationship in the Arctic and seeks to identify particular issues that could and should be pursued in the near-term (next three years) and mid-term (next five years) taking into account the results of the US Chairmanship of the Arctic Council.
Разработка морских нефтегазовых ресурсов Арктики: текущее состояние и перспек...Russian Council
Снижение мировых цен на нефть, начавшееся летом 2014 г., несет риски для реализации целого ряда крупных проектов в нефтегазовой сфере, включая проекты по добыче нефти и газа из сланцевых пород, глубоководных шельфовых проектов и проектов на арктическом шельфе.
В настоящее время уровень добычи нефти в мире по-прежнему превышает уровень ее потребления. Тем не менее актуальным остается вопрос об источниках поддержания в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе текущего уровня добычи нефти и газа и обеспечения его роста для удовлетворения потребностей мировой экономики.
По оценкам ОПЕК и Международного энергетического агентства, к 2040 г. потребление первичной энергии населением Земли вырастет по сравнению с 2010 г. на 40–60%. При этом нефть в мировом энергобалансе по-прежнему будет занимать ведущее место — на ее долю будет приходиться 25–27%, а на долю газа — 24–26% против нынешних 35% и 26% соответственно1.
В 2040 г. значительная доля потребления нефти и газа придется на месторождения, которые еще не разведаны. Прогнозируемый объем неразведанных запасов арктического континентального шельфа сегодня оценивается в 90 млрд баррелей нефти и 47 трлн м3 природного газа2. С учетом этих оценок морские нефтегазовые ресурсы Арктики в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе могут занять значительное место в поддержании как текущего уровня добычи нефти и газа, так и его роста.
Microsoft word new base 672 special 25 august 2015Khaled Al Awadi
ttached FYI ( NewBase Special 25 August 2015 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• New Gas Reserves Discovered in Turkmenistan
• UAE Mubadala in talks with Russia's Rosneft on east Siberian fields
• Libya oil production at 350,000 to 400,000 bpd
• Xcite looking to cut price for Bentley development
• Angola: Cobalt International sells offshore Angola blocks to Sonangol
• Philippines’ coal-power plans unsettle investors
• Growing global liquids inventories reflect lower crude oil prices
• Oil rebounds after sharp losses, but China worries weigh
• Refiners face decade long global gasoline glut
• Water management key to achieving sustainable development goals
• UK economy vulnerable to China market fallout, Osborne says
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
LNG Supply System for Nuclear Plant- Cunico CorpCunico Corp
Within 10 years the majority of shipping vessels will run on LNG...a cleaner, alternative fuel source. The newest innovation in LNG carrier engine design, M-type, electronically controlled, gas injection (ME-GI) engines, optimize the capability of slow speed engines by running directly off BOG (removing the need to reliquefy the gas) or utilizing fuel oil, and ME-GI propulsion results in less fuel consumption.
Environmental legislation is currently impacting the marine market segment. Ships were traditionally powered by Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), which produces high levels of harmful pollutants. LNG is one of the only fuel source able to comply with the environmental legislation.
2019 Election| LNG| Natural Resources| Canada| August 2019paul young cpa, cga
Canada is one of the top exporters of Natural Gas
Canada lacks the LNG capacity to expand LNG exports
United States continues to expand its export market for its LNG - https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2018/08/05/despite-trade-war-u-s-natural-gas-exports-booming-to-record-highs/#173faff614ea
Canada regulatory process will get messier if bill C-69 becomes law - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/what-bill-c-69-means-for-industry~1483271
The first quarter 2013 report for Norse Energy, an exploration and production company with 130,000 acres of oil and gas leases in New York State. Because of NY's now nearly 5-year moratorium on fracking and horizontal drilling, Norse is in bankruptcy and very close to closing their doors. Can you say "I Love NY?" How about "NY is Open for Business?" Norse may not concur.
Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology
Dept. of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering
MSc in Oil & Gas Technology
“Oil Trading”
“Cyprus: An update on gas exploration and reserves”
Supervisor: N. Kontinakis
January 2014
Lyes Boudiaf. Founder & President of Isly Holdings. Algeria. Lyes Boudiaf has been decorated as knight of the honorary Order of Merit of the State of Portugal
Over the last years relations between Russia and the US have significantly deteriorated in the majority of cooperation areas. However, Russia-US interaction in the Arctic remains largely shielded from the general climate of mistrust.
Given the current strained relationship, it is realistic to expect that particularly in the short term Russia—US cooperation on Arctic issues is easier to improve, and thus more likely to be expected within multilateral frameworks, such as the Arctic Council, International Maritime Organization, or ad hoc forums, rather than through bilateral formats.
The Working Paper focuses on the US and Russia’s interests, challenges and opportunities for maintaining and consolidating a cooperative relationship in the Arctic and seeks to identify particular issues that could and should be pursued in the near-term (next three years) and mid-term (next five years) taking into account the results of the US Chairmanship of the Arctic Council.
Разработка морских нефтегазовых ресурсов Арктики: текущее состояние и перспек...Russian Council
Снижение мировых цен на нефть, начавшееся летом 2014 г., несет риски для реализации целого ряда крупных проектов в нефтегазовой сфере, включая проекты по добыче нефти и газа из сланцевых пород, глубоководных шельфовых проектов и проектов на арктическом шельфе.
В настоящее время уровень добычи нефти в мире по-прежнему превышает уровень ее потребления. Тем не менее актуальным остается вопрос об источниках поддержания в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе текущего уровня добычи нефти и газа и обеспечения его роста для удовлетворения потребностей мировой экономики.
По оценкам ОПЕК и Международного энергетического агентства, к 2040 г. потребление первичной энергии населением Земли вырастет по сравнению с 2010 г. на 40–60%. При этом нефть в мировом энергобалансе по-прежнему будет занимать ведущее место — на ее долю будет приходиться 25–27%, а на долю газа — 24–26% против нынешних 35% и 26% соответственно1.
В 2040 г. значительная доля потребления нефти и газа придется на месторождения, которые еще не разведаны. Прогнозируемый объем неразведанных запасов арктического континентального шельфа сегодня оценивается в 90 млрд баррелей нефти и 47 трлн м3 природного газа2. С учетом этих оценок морские нефтегазовые ресурсы Арктики в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе могут занять значительное место в поддержании как текущего уровня добычи нефти и газа, так и его роста.
The Northern Sea Route: National Regime in the Changing International ContextRussian Council
Both the Arctic states and other members of the global community are becoming increasingly interested
in the Arctic. The issues of developing the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the legal regulation of navigation
in its waters are pending both for the Russian interests and in the international context, especially since the
International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) comes into force on 1 January 2017.
The NSR has a special role among the maritime shipping routes in the world (fig. 1). It is the shortest sea route
between the European part of Russia and the Far East. Its use has always been complicated.
Even in summer, the Arctic seas the NSR crosses are occasionnaly covered with ice. Travelling through the Arctic
ice requires icebreakers and Arctic ice class transportation vessels with a strong hull and powerful engines.
However, even such technically perfect Arctic fleet is not always capable of ensuring navigation in ice-covered
regions. Safe navigation in the NSR water area requires navigational, hydrographic, hydrometeorological,
and search and rescue systems that are constantly improved. Experts note that successful Arctic navigation,
proper management and appropriate legal governance of the route’s use require clear understanding of the
specifics of the Arctic region and of navigation therein.
The Russian Arctic: Potential for International CooperationRussian Council
The report continues work held in line with the “Roadmap for International Cooperation in the Arctic” project organized by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). The report looks into the network of circumpolar territories including new industrial regions on the Arctic continental shelf, analyses key goals of educational cooperation and identifies opportunities for international collaboration among small and medium-sized businesses in the Arctic. Authors present their vision for strategic governance in the Russian Arctic and inter-municipal cooperation in the coastal zone of the Russian Federation.
Asian Players in the Arctic: Interests, Opportunities, ProspectsRussian Council
The Arctic’s growing geopolitical and geoeconomic significance against the background of global climate change determines the interest of non-Arctic players to the region. In 2013 India, China, Republic of Korea, Japan and Singapore became observers to the Arctic Council.
The Report examines non-regional actors’ interests in the Arctic, their policy frameworks in the region and principal areas of Arctic studies. Authors also explore the Asian states’ positions on the international status of the Arctic. Specific attention is given to the prospects of cooperation between Russia and India, China, Republic of Korea, Japan, Singapore in developing the region.
Северный морской путь: национальный правовой режим в меняющемся международном...Russian Council
В настоящее время повышенный интерес к Арктическому региону проявляют не только арктические государства, но и другие страны мира. Вопросы развития Северного морского пути (СМП) и правового регулирования плавания в его акватории актуальны как в рамках интересов Российской Федерации, так и в международном контексте — особенно в свете вступления в силу 1 января 2017 г. Международного кодекса для судов, эксплуатируемых в полярных водах.
The Russian International Affairs Council has prepared the complete version of its annual report which contains a detailed description of program activities, results of implemented projects and contests, key events, publications and other achievements.
Россия и США в Арктике. Рабочая тетрадь № 30/2016Russian Council
В последние годы наблюдается существенное ухудшение отношений между Россией и США в большинстве сфер взаимодействия. Тем не менее сотрудничество в Арктике не подверглось значительному воздействию сложившейся атмосферы взаимного недоверия.
В рабочей тетради рассматриваются основные интересы России и США, а также трудности и возможности, связанные с поддержанием и укреплением отношений сотрудничества в Арктике. Кроме того, предпринята попытка выявить конкретные вопросы, которые можно и следует решить в краткосрочной (ближайшие три года) и среднесрочной перспективе (ближайшие пять лет).
Потенциал российской Арктики для международного сотрудничества: доклад № 17/2015Russian Council
Доклад продолжает серию аналитических материалов Российского совета по международным делам (РСМД) в рамках проекта «Дорожная карта международного сотрудничества в Арктике». В работе детально рассматривается система связей циркумполярных регионов, межрегиональное международное сотрудничество в новых промышленных районах на арктическом шельфе, задачи образовательного взаимодействия, а также возможности для сотрудничества малого и среднего бизнеса в регионе. Отдельное внимание уделяется вопросам стратегического управления российской Арктикой. Авторы предлагают своё видение задач межмуниципального сотрудничества в береговой зоне России, создания единого центра ответственности за реализацию арктической политики России, а также комплексного экосистемного управления арктическими территориями.
Авторский коллектив:
докт. геогр. наук А.Н. Пилясов (руководитель); канд. экон. наук А.В. Котов
ISBN 978-5-91891-434-2
Азиатские игроки в Арктике: интересы, возможности, перспективыRussian Council
В условиях глобального изменения климата возрастает геополитическое и геоэкономическое значение Арктики, интерес к региону проявляют неарктические государства. В 2013 г. статус наблюдателей в Арктическом совете получили Индия, Китай, Республика Корея, Япония и Сингапур. В докладе рассмотрены основные интересы нерегиональных акторов в Арктике, институциональные рамки их политики в регионе и базовые направления арктических научных исследований. В материале также исследованы позиции неарктических государств по международно-правовому статусу Арктики. Значительное внимание авторы уделяют перспективам сотрудничества России и Индии, Китая, Республики Корея, Японии, Сингапура в освоении региона.
Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker: Q2 2015Ipsos UK
Confidence in rising property prices reached its highest level in May 2015 since the inception of the Housing Market Confidence Tracker survey, before relaxing slightly in June (Q2) 2015. House price optimism (the proportion of Britons who expect the average UK property price to rise over the next 12 months, less the proportion who think it will fall) reached +68 around the time of the General Election in May 2015, and has since slipped back to +64 as measured in the June 2015 survey wave.
Brochure Leergang Commerciele Vaardigheden voor Advocaten, Notarissen en Fisc...ASEGA Legal
De Leergang Commerciele Vaardigheden voor Advocaten, Notarissen en Fiscalisten voorziet de juridisch professional in de persoonlijke en commerciële vorming en biedt
tools om duurzaam succesvol te werken met bestaande en
nieuwe cliënten.
New base energy news issue 854 dated 19 may 2016Khaled Al Awadi
Greetings,
Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 19 May 2016 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In today’s issue you will find news about:-
• UAE: Dubai Green Economy Partnership showcases efforts to enhance the level of low-carbon and sustainable development
• Norway: Lundin Petroleum awarded five licences in 23rd licensing round
• Thailand: Mubadala spuds exploration well in Gulf of Thailand
•
Vietnam: Gazprom, PetroVietnam to Launch New Oil, Gas Projects
• US: Texas Energy Regulator Faces Questions on Oil-linked Quakes
• Oil drops on surging dollar, rising U.S. crude stocks, jump in Iran export
• Oil outages speeding up new world energy order
• Why Iran can't rely on oil to rescue economy: IMF
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is rapidly changing the structure of the global gas industry.
Flexible in transportation, safe in use, and competitive in supply, LNG today has already won more than 40% of the physical volume of world gas exports and is expected to reach 60% by 2040. In 2020, the development of the LNG market underwent significant transformations, as the COVID-19 pandemic posed a challenge to the global economy.
Global LNG Navigating Risks in a Dynamic MarketCTRM Center
Liquified natural gas (LNG) has been a traded commodity for more than a century. But only in the last couple of decades has the market expanded to meet the ever-increasing demand for energy, through low carbon emissions energy sources. With the development of the massive Qatar LNG facilities in the mid-1990s and the increasing demand for imported gas, global LNG trading has grown from about 50 MTPA in 1990 to more than 350 MTPA in 2020.
Most energy commodities struggled with lower trade and consumption volumes under the pandemic-induced industrial shutdowns in 2020. LNG trade was, however, up slightly at 0.4% during the year, continuing its uninterrupted streak of year-over-year growth since 1996. However, that growth was far below rates in the preceding years which averaged 7% since 2004.
In order to tackle the accelerating growth in the demand for energy, and confront any obstacles which impede the implementation of prosperous energy projects, The Master Strategy of the Energy Sector in Jordan for the Period 2007 – 2020 (“Jordan’s Energy Strategy”) has been sanctioned by the Cabinet on 7/12/2004. In both the oil and the natural gas sectors, the principle recommendation and goal of the Jordan’s Energy Strategy is to attract foreign investment to explore, develop and produce resources in open areas.
In Jordan there is no specific legislation regulating oil and gas activities, yet, the legal framework is suitable for the current volume and condition of operations in the sector. This paper will outline such regime and the oil and gas market as a whole. It will look at the historic development of the market, the current market conditions and players and the legal framework governing oil and gas activities.
2016 Global economic outlook and socioeconomic imperatives For NigeriaOlayiwola Oladapo
Two Key issues will headline the global economic trajectory for 2016;
• Sky diving Oil Prices
• Growth Slowdown of the Chinese economy
These two broad based issues will affect the economic growth across all continents and nations. How do these two issues remotely affect Nigeria?
For more details see the attached presentation. And watch this space for more incisive insight into what the 2016 socioeconomic outlook is for Nigeria.
Similar to Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Development: Current Situation and Prospects (20)
Предложения по российско-американскому сотрудничеству в сфере кибербезопаснос...Russian Council
Текущее состояние российско-американских отношений отличается высоким уровнем недоверия. Напряженность нарастала в течение трех лет, государства наложили друг на друга санкции, активно распространяют пропаганду и обмениваются взаимными обвинениями. Ситуация в двусторонних отношениях непредсказуема: если эскалация продолжится, вся система международных отношений может быть дестабилизована. Текущее ухудшение отношений между двумя странами затронуло все сферы взаимодействия, включая кибербезопасность.
Взаимодействие в сфере кибербезопасности – достаточно новый аспект, который никогда не входил в число приоритетных направлений наравне с борьбой с терроризмом, украинским и сирийским кризисами, экономическими санкциями и др.
Несмотря на то, что государства по обе стороны Атлантического океана осознают необходимость решения ключевых вопросов кибербезопасности, мнения сторон относительно необходимых мер и применения норм международного права к вопросам киберпространства расходятся.
В этой связи требуется работа по двум направлениям. Первое – сотрудничество в предотвращении киберпреступлений и принятие мер по борьбе с кибертерроризмом. Россия и США не могут найти общий язык при обсуждении предотвращения киберпреступлений. Отчасти это вызвано отсутствием общепринятой терминологии применительно к киберпространству.
Кроме того, анонимность киберпреступлений не только затрудняет процесс атрибуции, но и зачастую подрывает статус-кво в двусторонних отношениях. Второе направление включает в себя разработку норм поведения, а также защиту объектов критической инфраструктуры от кибератак. Хотя группа правительственных экспертов ООН ведет активную работу над разработкой правил игры, государствам необходимо найти способы применения существующих и потенциальных норм на практике. Также необходимо дать четкие определения объектам критической инфраструктуры и киберпреступлений.
На данном этапе критически важно продолжение диалога и налаживание взаимопонимания при помощи экспертных встреч и публикаций, сотрудничества на техническом уровне и сбалансированного участия СМИ.
На протяжении 2016 г. российские и американские эксперты по вопросам кибербезопасности совместно работали над предложениями по решению проблем в двусторонних отношениях, связанных с этой сферой.
В результате двусторонних усилий Российский совет по международным делам (РСМД) и Институт Восток-Запад (ИВЗ) выделили ряд вызовов и проблем в сфере кибербезопасности, а также предложений по их решению для улучшения российско-американского сотрудничества в киберпространстве. Стороны выражают надежду, что изложенные ниже предложения смогут лечь в основу будущего сотрудничества.
A Report of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program and the Russian International Affairs Council
At a time when tension between the US and Russia is higher than it has been in decades, we cannot forget that the relationship between these two countries is among the most important for global security. On any number of issues, from arms control to the Middle East, failure of the U.S. and Russia to communicate will make things much, much worse, with repercussions that will last for generations and affect the entire world. For this reason, CSIS and RIAC convened some of Russia’s and America’s top experts to think through the future of the bilateral relationship. The result is a series of papers that identify both the spheres where coordination is crucial and those where it may be possible, responding to mutual interests and potentially helping to stabilize the relationship and buffer against conflict in the future. For both, they offer concrete recommendations and a clear-eyed take on what can, and what cannot be done.
The analyses that follow examine prospects for Russia-U.S. cooperation in several crucial regions and fields: economics, energy, the Arctic, Euro-Atlantic security, the Middle East, strategic stability, cybersecurity, and countering terrorism and extremism. They offer actionable recommendations in each area, some of which can, and should be undertaken today, and some of which should be considered by policymakers in Moscow and Washington as they chart a course through dangerous and uncertain times.
Презентация Лоуренса Макдоннелла. Дебаты «Fake News и мировая политика»Russian Council
18 июля 2017 г. в библиотеке им. Ф.М. Достоевского РСМД провел дебаты на тему «Fake News и мировая политика».
Лекторами на мероприятии выступили бывший корреспондент ВВС в Москве Лоуренс Макдоннелл и заместитель редактора международного отдела РБК, бывший главный редактор англоязычного аналитического ресурса Russia Direct Павел Кошкин. В роли модератора дискуссии выступал менеджер по связям со СМИ и правительственными структурами РСМД Николай Маркоткин.
Web Internationalization of Russian Universities (2016–2017). Report No. 31/2017Russian Council
This report is the result of a new stage in the research of the online English-language resources on the websites of Russian universities and is a follow-up to the initial report produced by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) entitled “Web Internationalization: Russian Universities” in 2015.
The authors developed a methodology for assessing the English-language websites of universities. The online resources of 47 universities were analysed and compared with those of 11 QS Top 100 World Universities.
The results of the study are presented in the form of a ranking of the English-language websites of Russian universities. An analysis of common problems and a list of recommendations have also been provided.
Россия и Запад: как управлять «холодным миром»?Russian Council
Пятый позиционный документ Рабочей группы проекта «Строительство Большой Европы: необходимые меры до 2030 г.».
Группа видных членов и сторонников Панъевропейской Рабочей группы по сотрудничеству в Большой Европе, в которую входят бывшие министры иностранных дел и обороны, а также высшие должностные лица России, Великобритании, Турции, Польши, Германии, Италии и Финляндии, призвала руководство стран евроатлантического региона остановить дальнейшее раскручивание нисходящей спирали в отношениях между Россией и Западом и эффективно управлять рисками путем повышения стабильности в сфере безопасности.
Отмечая серьезность ситуации, члены Рабочей группы предупреждают, что она чревата военной конфронтацией между Россией и Западом — как умышленной, так и ненамеренной. Отдавая себе отчет в том, что рассчитывать на скорое улучшение отношений не приходится, они считают, что стабилизация ситуации требует общей приверженности всех стран евроатлантического региона отказу от применения силы, более осторожного и сдержанного подхода к наращиванию военного потенциала и активного использования возможностей контроля над вооружениями и укрепления доверия.
Managing the Cold Peace between Russia and the West. Fifth Task Force Positio...Russian Council
A group of prominent Members and Supporters of the Pan-European Task Force on Cooperation in Greater Europe, including former foreign and defence ministers and senior officials from Russia, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Poland, Germany, Italy and Finland has joined forces to appeal to the leadership of the countries in the Euro-Atlantic area to halt the downward spiral in West-Russia relations and manage its risks better through developing a more stable and sustainable security relationship.
Theses on Russia’s Foreign Policy and Global Positioning (2017–2024)Russian Council
5 years ago, in 2012, Postulates on Russia's Foreign Policy (2012-2018) marked the beginning of RIAC’s project work. This report has become RIAC’s trademark for several years, its amendments being used in the updated Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation.
The world is now standing at a road fork, and Russia’s key task is to ensure no era of extremes, to promote comfortable and manageable international environment without limitations, conflicts, and splits.
Addressing the changed international situation, quantitative and qualitative growth of challenges for Russia’s foreign policy RIAC and Center for Strategic Research (CSR) presented Theses on Russia’s Foreign Policy and Global Positioning (2017–2024).
As part of the project, 30 interviews were conducted with RIAC members: prominent diplomats, major international relations experts, media executives and entrepreneurs. As a separate part of the project, a series of case studies were conducted with the participation of experts and RIAC members.
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The theses were based upon the results of a parallel study conducted by a team of researchers at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Text: Ivan Timofeev, RIAC Director of Programs.
Edited by Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General and Sergey Utkin, Head of Foreign and Security Policy Department of the Centre for Strategic Research.
Тезисы по внешней политике и позиционированию России в мире (2017–2024 гг.)Russian Council
5 лет назад, в 2012 г. РСМД открыл проектную деятельность изданием Тезисов о внешней политики России (2012–2018). Доклад стал визитной карточкой Совета на несколько лет, а предложения были использованы в новой редакции Концепции внешней политики РФ.
Сейчас мир стоит на развилке, перед Россией стоит задача не допустить новой эпохи крайностей, способствовать созданию комфортной, управляемой международной среды без ограничительных линий, конфликтов и расколов.
Отвечая на изменившуюся международную ситуацию, количественный и качественный рост вызовов для российской внешней политики, РСМД и Центр стратегических разработок (ЦСР) представили «Тезисы по внешней политике и позиционированию России в мире».
В рамках проекта было проведено 30 интервью с членами РСМД — известными дипломатами, крупными учеными-международниками, руководителями СМИ, представителями бизнеса.
Отдельной составляющей проекта стала серия ситуационных анализов с участием экспертов и сотрудников РСМД.
Подготовке тезисов помогли результаты работы группы ученых из Института мировой
экономики и международных отношений имени Е. М. Примакова (ИМЭМО РАН), которая велась параллельно с исследованием РСМД.
Автор текста: Иван Тимофеев, программный директор РСМД.
Под редакцией: Андрея Кортунова, генерального директора РСМД и Сергея Уткина, руководителя направления «Внешняя политика и безопасность» ЦСР.
70th Anniversary of Russia-India Relations: New Horizons of Privileged Partne...Russian Council
In 2017, Russia and India celebrate the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations. Over the years, the two states have steadily developed mutually beneficial ties. Their cooperation has achieved the level of special and privileged strategic partnership. Regular contacts between the two leaders have become an established practice. On June 1–2, 2017, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi is visiting Russia. On May 30, 2017, President of Russia Vladimir Putin’s article “Russia and India: 70 years together” was published in the Times of India. In the article the Russian President stated that the enormous potential of cooperation between the two great powers will be further explored for the benefit of the peoples of India and Russia and the international community in general.
However, in order to make full use of the collaboration potential, ties between Russia and India should be taken to a qualitatively new level. Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) have drafted a joint report in order to open up a new discussion on the prospects of Russia-India relations and the steps required to develop them further. The authors express hope that ideas and recommendations expressed in the paper will provide the necessary expert support for state level contacts and will be helpful in foreign policy decision-making by the two governments.
70-летие дипломатических отношений России и Индии: Новые горизонты привилегир...Russian Council
В 2017 г. Россия и Индия отмечают 70-летие дипломатических отношений. Россия и Индия последовательно формировали взаимовыгодные отношения; их взаимодействие достигло уровня особо привилегированного стратегического партнерства. Регулярные контакты лидеров двух стран вошли в практику российско-индийских отношений. 1–2 июня 2017 г. состоялся официальный визит премьер-министра Н. Моди в Россию. 30 мая 2017 г. в газете The Times of India опубликована статья президента РФ В. Путина «Россия и Индия: 70 лет вместе». В материале президент России выразил уверенность, что «колоссальный потенциал взаимодействия двух великих держав будет и впредь реализовываться на благо народов России и Индии, международного сообщества в целом».
Однако для полноценного использования потенциала сотрудничества необходимо вывести российско-индийские связи на качественно новый уровень. Российский совет по международным делам (РСМД) и Международный фонд им. Вивекананды (VIF) подготовили совместный доклад, призванный открыть широкую экспертную дискуссию о перспективах развития отношений между двумя странами, а также мерах, необходимых для дальнейшего совершенствования и повышения эффективности этих отношений.
Авторы выражают надежду, что идеи и рекомендации, изложенные в данном документе, окажутся востребованными на уровне межгосударственных контактов и будут полезны государственным органам обеих стран при принятии соответствующих внешнеполитических решений.
Дорожная карта российско-американских отношенийRussian Council
Доклад – результат работы ведущих российских и американских экспертов. Основная идея доклада состоит в том, что даже в обстановке геополитической напряженности и взаимного недоверия Россия и США должны сотрудничать. И не только в тех областях, где от их взаимодействия зависит глобальная безопасность, но и в более широком спектре направлений, в которых конкретные совместные действия не менее важны для нормализации отношений между двумя странами и для предотвращения конфликтов в будущем. В докладе анализируются перспективы российско-американского сотрудничества в таких важнейших регионах и сферах как Арктика, Ближний Восток, экономика, энергетика, евроатлантическая безопасность, стратегическая стабильность, кибербезопасность, борьба с терроризмом и экстремизмом. В докладе предлагаются практические рекомендации по налаживанию сотрудничества на каждом из направлений.
Lies, Spies and Big Data: How Fake News Is Rewriting Political LandscapesRussian Council
On November 7, 2016, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States after a bitterly-fought campaign against Hillary Clinton. The election was very closely-run, with Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote, but losing the presidency based on the U.S. electoral college structure. However, months after Donald Trump was declared President of the United States, questions remain about the legitimacy of the U.S. elections. The central issues are the emergence and use of so-called ‘Fake News’ and the accusation that Russia, through espionage and online hacking operations, sought to influence the presidential elections to promote Donald Trump and denigrate the reputation of Hillary Clinton.
The issues thrown up in the wake of the U.S. presidential election have fundamentally undermined trust in the workings of the international media and further damaged U.S.–Russia relations. A report by the U.S. intelligence services accusing Russia of attempting to influence the outcome of the election, prepared for President Obama and published in the election’s immediate aftermath, led to the expulsion1 of 35 Russian diplomats from Washington just days after the results were announced. President Putin, on the other hand, opted not to expel any U.S. diplomats from Russia. The investigation into Russia’s involvement and influence on the U.S. elections continues today.
This policy brief provides an overview of how the gathering and dissemination of news has changed in a globalized digital environment, how consumers digest and share news at an ever-increasing pace, and how the management of big data can influence electorates across borders. It will also define ‘fake news’ and the extent to which it might have influenced the results of the U.S. elections.
Damage Assessment: EU-Russia relations in crisisRussian Council
A new Special Report edited by Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and European Leadership Network (ELN) assesses the damage to EU-Russia relations after three years of crisis.
Featuring Russian and European experts, the report presents their analysis on fundamental aspects of deteriorating EU-Russia relations, including economic impact, political relations and people-to-people contact. For each of these areas the Russian experts present and assess developments inside their own country, while Western authors describe the situation at the EU level and in selected European Union countries.
Перспективы развития проекта ЕАЭС к 2025 годуRussian Council
Рабочая тетрадь подготовлена Российским советом по международным делам (РСМД) в рамках проекта «Евразийская экономическая интеграция: эффективные модели взаимодействия экспертов».
Цель издания — представить взгляды экспертов на развитие проекта ЕАЭС в перспективе до 2025 г. В издании рассмотрены некоторые перспективные направления интеграции: транспорт и логистика, агропромышленная политика, свобода перемещения товаров, трудовых ресурсов, образование на пространстве ЕАЭС, международные связи ЕАЭС в перспективе до 2025 г. Безусловно, этот перечень не является исчерпывающим с точки зрения перспективных направлений интеграции, однако он представляется реализуемым с учетом национальных приоритетов и ожиданий государств — членов Союза, анализу которых посвящен отдельный раздел тетради, и без понимания которых едва ли возможна проработка общих перспективных направлений интеграции.
Экономическое развитие стран ЕАЭС и перспективы экономической интеграции до 2...Russian Council
Евразийский экономический союз создавался для укрепления национальных экономик и возможностей государств–членов в мировой экономике при условии создания четырех свобод – передвижения товаров, услуг, финансов и рабочей силы. Его создание пришлось как на период мировой экономической нестабильности, так и геополитических изменений в Евразии, что повлияло на ситуацию внутри ЕАЭС. Сегодня актуален вопрос перспективности развития экономик государств–членов в формате их участия в евразийском интеграционном проекте.
В аналитической записке рассматриваются вопросы сочетаемости национальных и интеграционных интересов в программах развития как самих стран, так и в рамках ЕАЭС в перспективе до 2025 г.
Российско-британский диалог по проблемам безопасности: перспективы двусторонн...Russian Council
В настоящее время российско-британские отношения находятся в глубоком кризисе. Удастся ли странам восстановить регулярный и системный диалог на высшем уровне? Каковы перспективы сотрудничества России и Великобритании в сфере безопасности, борьбы с международным терроризмом и противодействия насильственному экстремизму, в том числе на Большом Ближнем Востоке? Какие механизмы необходимо выработать для укрепления мер доверия, предотвращения радикализации и развития сотрудничества в борьбе с киберпреступностью. Эти и другие вопросы, связанные с прошлым, настоящим и будущим российско-британских отношений в области безопасности рассматриваются в совместном докладе Российского совета по международным делам (РСМД) и Королевского объединенного института оборонных исследований (RUSI).
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Development: Current Situation and Prospects
1. 1
Arctic Oil and Gas
Resource Development:
Current Situation
and Prospects
POLICY BRIEF
Ivan Panichkin
Lecturer of International Institute of Energy Policy and Diplomacy at MGIMO University,
RIAC Expert
No. 8, October 2016
2. 2
Ivan Panichkin. Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Development: Current Situation and Prospects
BOARD OF TRUSTEES
Sergey Lavrov – Chairman
of the Board of Trustees
Herman Gref
Aleksandr Dzasokhov
Leonid Drachevsky
Aleksandr Dynkin
Mikhail Komissar
Konstantin Kosachev
Mikhail Margelov
Yury Osipov
Sergey Prikhodko
Anatoly Torkunov
Andrey Fursenko
Aleksandr Shokhin
Igor Yurgens
PRESIDIUM
Petr Aven
Igor Ivanov – President
Andrey Kortunov – Director General
Fyodor Lukyanov
Aleksey Meshkov
Dmitry Peskov
Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) is a membership-based non-profit Russian organization.
RIAC’sactivitiesareaimedatstrengtheningpeace,friendshipandsolidaritybetweenpeoples,preventing
international conflicts and promoting crisis resolution. The Council was founded in accordance with
Russian Presidential Order No. 59-rp ”On the Creation of the Russian International Affairs Council non-
profit partnership,” dated February 2, 2010.
FOUNDERS
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs
Interfax News Agency
RIAC MISSION
The mission of RIAC is to promote Russia’s prosperity by integrating it into the global world. RIAC operates as a
link between the state, scholarly community, business and civil society in an effort to find solutions to foreign
policy issues.
The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of RIAC.
Editors:
Ivan Timofeev, Ph.D. in Political Science
Timur Makhmutov, Ph.D. in Political Science
Liudmila Filippova
Ksenia Kuzmina
RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL
3. 3
Russian International Affairs Council
Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Development:
Current Situation and Prospects
The decline in global oil prices that began in the summer of 2014 carries with it a number of risks in
assembling a whole range of major oil and gas projects, including shale gas extraction projects, deep-
water offshore projects and projects in the Arctic shelf.
In these conditions, despite the ongoing surplus of global oil production in relation to consumption, the
question nevertheless arises: how can we maintain current production levels in the medium and long term
and ensure growth in order to meet world demand?
AccordingtotheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)andInternationalEnergyAgency
(IEA)estimates,by2040energydemandwillbe40–60percentgreaterthanin2010.Oil willcontinuetoplaya
leading role in the global energy balance, accounting for 25–27 per cent of the total supply, with gas making
up24–26percent(comparedto35percentand26percent,respectively,today).1
Alargeproportionofoiland
gas production by 2040 will take place at deposits that have not yet been explored.
Under these circumstances, taking the projected volume of the Arctic shelf’s undiscovered oil and gas
reserves into account, the estimated 90 billion barrels of oil and 47 trillion cubic metres of natural gas,2
offshore oil and gas resources in the Arctic could, in the medium and long term, play significant role both
in maintaining current oil and gas production levels and in ensuring growth in the future.
Greenland (Denmark)
Oil and gas resources have been developed on
the continental shelf of Greenland since the
1970s. In 1976 and 1977, US and European com-
panies drilled five exploratory wells that turned
out to be “dry”. Interest in continuing explora-
tion work also dried up as a result. A number
of attempts to find commercial oil and gas
reserves were made in the 1990s, but they were
unsuccessful.3
In 2006–2007, the Government of Greenland
issued eight licenses for the exploration of Baf-
fin Bay to companies: Dong Energy (Denmark),
Exxon (United States), Husky (Canada), PA
Resources (Sweden) and Cairn Energy (United
Kingdom). In 2010–2011 Cairn Energy (United
Kingdom) drilled 8 exploration wells. The com-
pany discovered some oil resources but they
were considered insufficient for development.
Cairn Energy spent $1.2 billion on exploration.4
In 2012, a consortium of oil and gas compa-
nies, including Conoco Phillips (United States),
GDF Suez (France), Nunaoil (Greenland), Maersk
(Denmark), Statoil (Norway), Cairn Energy и Shell
(Netherlands, as main operator) drilled 11 explor-
atory and prospecting wells in the shallow waters
of Baffin Bay. Сommercial oil and gas reserves
were not found.5
The decline in oil prices had a negative impact on
the plans of oil and gas companies to continue
searching for oil in Greenland. A number of com-
panies gave up exploration on the continental
shelf of Greenland where according to Denmark
and Greenland’s Geological Service the cost of oil
production is over $50 per barrel.6
Even though oil and gas companies have lost
their initial interest in the shelf of Greenland,
Greenland’s government plans to auction sev-
eral licensed sites on the island’s west coast in
2016—2018.7
In December 2016, it plans to auc-
AUTHOR:
Ivan Panichkin, Lecturer of International Institute of Energy Policy and Diplomacy at MGIMO University, RIAC Expert.
1
World Oil Outlook 2014 // Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
URL: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/WOO_2014.pdf
2
Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle. US Geological Survey. Fact Sheet 2008-3049; Assessment
of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic. Science. 29 May 2009: Vol. 324 no. 5931, pp. 1175-1179.
3
Gregersen U. A Summary of the Oil & Gas Exploration History of Greenland // Greenland Oil Industry Administration.
URL: http://www.goia.gl/OilGasinGreenland/History.aspx
4
Cairn Energy PLC. Arctic Exploration – Lessons from Cairn Energy’s Drilling in Greenland. June 2012. P. 15.
5
Uulex: Greenland Oil Exploration Newsletter // Greenland Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum. Uulex. 4. November 2012.
URL: http://www.govmin.gl/images/stories/petroleum/uulex/uulex_no4_november_2012.pdf
6
Oil Approaching $35 Final Blow to Greenland’s Exploration Dreams // Bloomberg. 14 December 2015.
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-14/oil-approaching-35-final-nail-in-greenland-s-exploration-dreams
7
Kurth A., Thorup S. Oil and Gas in Greenland – Still on Ice? // Andrews Kurth. November 2014.
URL: http://www.andrewskurth.com/pressroom-publications-1165.html?utm_source=Mondaq&utm_medium=syndication&utm_campaign=View-Original
4. 4
Ivan Panichkin. Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Development: Current Situation and Prospects
tion three sites on Disko Island in the Baffin Bay,
and in 2017–2018, it plans to auction sites in the
Baffin Bay itself.
At the same time, the government of Greenland
does not expect any significant budget revenues
from the oil and gas industry in the nearest 5–10
years.8
Norway
The falling production in major deposits in the
North and Norwegian seas has led the Gov-
ernment of the Kingdom of Norway to step up
its efforts to attract oil and gas companies to
develop resources in the Barents Sea.
At present, only one deposit in the Norwegian
continental shelf is in commercial operation – the
Snøhvit (“Snow White”) natural gas field, which
was opened back in 1984 and is located 150 kilo-
metres from the Norwegian coast. The deposit
has reserves of 193 billion cubic metres of gas and
113 million barrels of natural-gas condensate.9
Gas production at the site started in 2007. A full-
scale manufacturing complex has been built in
order to develop the field. It consists of 19 produc-
tion wells, CO2 injection wells, a 160-km subsea
pipeline and the Hammerfest LNG plant, which
produces 4.3 million tonnes of liquefied natural
gas per year. The project is being operated by
Statoil, which holds a 33.53 per cent stake.
The Goliat field discovered in 2000 is now in
the final stages of commissioning, with reserves
of 174 million barrels of oil and 8 billion cubic
metres of natural gas. The Sevan FPSO 1000
floating platform was delivered to the oil field in
spring 2015. It will double up as a storage facil-
ity for one million barrels of oil and a floating
terminal for its shipment.10
In March 2016, two
years behind schedule, the rig started industrial
oil production, yet already in August it stopped,
due to a blackout.11
Eni, the project operator,
estimates that it breaks even on its Goliat oil
field exploration with oil prices of about $50 per
barrel. Norwegian consulting company Rystad
Energy, however, estimates that investments into
the project can be recovered only with oil prices
of $100 per barrel.12
The Barents Sea has a number of other deposits
with commercial oil reserves: the Johan Castberg,
Gohta, Alta and Wisting Central fields. However,
investment decisions with regard to developing
these deposits have not yet been made. This is
due in part to falling oil prices around the world
and the subsequent need to review the financial,
economic and technical parameters of projects.
Russia’s Rosneft and LUKOIL are involved in sev-
eral projects in the region.
In 2014, after the 22nd
licensing round, Rosneft
acquired a 20% stake in the license PL713 on the
Norwegian shelf in the Barents Sea; Rosneft will
develop it jointly with Statoil.
LUKOIL acquired 20% in the license PL708. Swe-
den’s Lundin Petroleum is the project operator;
Italy’s Edison and Norway’s North Energy own
20% each.
In February 2014, the government of Norway
began to draft a list of licensed sites to be dis-
tributed during the next, 23rd
licensing round.
Admission of the applications closed on 6 Sep-
tember 2016 for 24 sites on the Norwegian
Sea shelf and 32 sites on the Barents Sea shelf.
8 sites are located to the north of the 75º north-
ern latitude (further up north than any of the
sites already distributed) and are within the polar
ice area.13
This decision of the Norwegian govern-
ment was sharply criticized by political parties
and public organizations insisting that licensing
out sites in the areas which are permanently or
temporarily covered with ice should be sus-
pended, since there are no tested and approved
technologies for tackling oil spills in the ice-
covered area.14
Besides, several sites are situated
on the border with Russia in the area previously
closed for oil and gas industry. Rosneft, LUKOIL,
8
Greenland’s Arctic Oil Exploration Unlikely to Bring Results in 5-10 Years // Sputnik News. 24 May 2016.
URL: https://sputniknews.com/world/20160524/1040180017/greenland-oil-exploration.html
9
Snøhvit Gas Field, Norway // Offshore Technology. URL: http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/snohvit-field
10
Goliat. The Development Concept // Eni Norge. URL: http://www.eninorge.com/en/Field-development/Goliat/Development-solution
11
Endless Accidents at Goliat Undermine Norway’s Exploration Plans. URL: http://teknoblog.ru/2016/09/08/68340 (in Russian)
12
Eni’s Norway Troubles Risk Fueling Fight Against Arctic Oil // Bloomberg. 8 September 2015.
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-08/eni-s-troubles-off-norway-risk-fueling-fight-against-arctic-oil
13
Nomination of Blocks for the 23rd Licensing Round // Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. URL: http://www.npd.no/en/Topics/Production-licences/Theme-
articles/Licensing-rounds/23rd-Licencing-round/Nomination-of-blocks-for-the-23rd-licencing-round
14
Norway Offers Northernmost Oil Blocks Amid Polar Ice Cap Row // Bloomberg. 20 January 2015.
URL: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-20/norway-offers-northernmost-blocks-for-oil-and-gas-exploration
5. 5
Russian International Affairs Council
and Dea Norge AS owned by the Russian entre-
preneur Mikhail Fridman, are among those who
applied for the licenses.15
The winners will be
announced in the first quarter of 2017.
Canada
The first offshore well on the Canadian conti-
nental shelf was drilled in the Beaufort Sea by
Imperial Oil in 1973. A total of 141 wells were
drilled between 1973 and 1989. This was fol-
lowed by a lengthy break before the most recent
well – the 142nd
– was drilled in 2005 by US com-
pany Devon.16
The Government of Canada boosted the devel-
opment of oil and gas activities on its continental
shelf by offering subsidies and grants to com-
panies willing to explore the area. But these
subsidies were discontinued in the mid-1980s
which, along with declining oil prices at the time,
led to drilling work on the Beaufort Sea to come
to a complete halt by 1989.
Despite extensive exploration work, large depos-
its of oil and gas were never uncovered in the
Canadian part of the Beaufort Sea.
In 1997, the Government of Canada started
issuing licences for carrying out geological
exploration in the Beaufort Sea. In the following
years, licenses were issued to such companies as
Encana (Canada), Burlington Resources (United
States, purchased by ConocoPhillips in 2006),
Shell, BP (United Kingdom), Petro-Canada (Can-
ada), Anadarko (United States), MGM Energy
(Canada), Chevron (United States), Imperial Oil,
ConocoPhillips (United States), Devon and Frank-
lin Petroleum (United Kingdom).17
Exploratory drilling carried out by Devon at the
Gulf of Beluga during the winter and spring of
2005-2006 revealed recoverable hydrocarbon
deposits, although not enough to start commer-
cial development of the area.
A report published by the National Energy Board
of Canada18
in November 2014 pointed out that,
at present, only one hydrocarbon deposit had
been discovered on the islands of the Canadian
Arctic Archipelago. The Hecla deposit is thought
to have reserves in the amount of 75 billion cubic
metres of gas and 31 million barrels of oil. Mean-
while, only 178 billion cubic metres of gas and
667 million barrels of oil have been explored in
the Beaufort Sea.19
ImperialOil,BPandExxonMobilehavesetupjoint
venture to carry out exploratory works. The com-
paniesarenotexpectedtostartdrillinguntil2020.
Chevron and Statoil were also planning to start
joint drilling in 2020. But in December 2014,
Chevron announced that it would be suspend-
ing preparatory work indefinitely due to falling
oil prices on the global markets and the resul-
tant desire to reduce the company’s operating
expenses.
In June 2016, Shell announced it had returend
its licenses for the sites in the Canadian waters
of the Beaufort Sea due to a long-standing con-
frontation with the local communities and the
Government of Canada, which both insist that
the licensed sites be recognized as natural mari-
time reserves.20
At the same time, some experts
believe that the reason for Shell’s decision was
its need to minimize spending on Arctic opera-
tions due to their unprofitability and the refusal
of the Government of Canada to loosen the legal
requirements for drilling in the Arctic while the
companies had been unable to comply with
them.
United States
At present, only oil is being produced on the
US continental shelf. And all the sites where it is
being produced are located in the Beaufort Sea.
Extraction operations are carried out either from
the mainland with the help of horizontal drills, or
from artificial islands that have been erected at
shallow depths (up to ten metres). There are cur-
rently no offshore platforms in operation on the
Beaufort Sea.
15
LUKOIL, Rosneft and Dea Are Willing to Receive Licensing Sites in Norway // Vedomosti. 6 December 2015.
URL: https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2015/12/07/619856-lukoil-rosneft-dea (in Russian).
16
Nattel M. Oil, Gas and Rights of Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic: Example of North Canada // Ethnographic Review. 3, 2008 (in Russian).
17
History of the Canadian Oil Industry (Key Dates) // GeoHelp. URL: http://www.geohelp.net/history.html
18
Assessment of Discovered Conventional Petroleum Resources in the Northwest Territories and Beaufort Sea // National Energy Board of Canada. November
2014. URL: https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrth/pblctn/2014ptrlmrsrc/2014ptrlmrsrc-eng.pdf
19
Reference Information: oil production in Canada reached 193 million tonnes (1.6 billion barrels), gas production – 154 billion cubic metres.
20
Shell Surrenders Canada Arctic Rights to Marine Park Plan. URL: http://phys.org/news/2016-06-shell-surrenders-canada-arctic-rights.html.
6. 6
Ivan Panichkin. Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Development: Current Situation and Prospects
Current production levels in the Beaufort Sea
remain rather low. For example, the Endicott Oil
Pool yields around 5,000 barrels of oil per day;
the Point McIntyre Oilfield 18,000 barrels per
day; and the Nikaitchuq Oilfield 25,000 barrels
per day.
All offshore oil projects in the Beaufort Sea are
located within 10 miles of the coast. All offshore
oil projects are connected to the Trans-Alaska
Pipeline System,21
which delivers oil to the oil ter-
minal in the port of Valdez in southern Alaska.
At present, Shell leases the majority of sites in the
Beaufort and Chukchi seas. But other companies
also lease sites in the region, including Statoil
(Norway), BP (United Kingdom), ConocoPhil-
lips (US), Eni (Italy), Murphy (United States), Iona
Energy (Canada), OOGC America (a subsidiary of
China National Petroleum Corporation) and Rep-
sol (Spain).
Shell carried out exploratory operations in the
Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea as early as the
1970s and 1980s, which resulted in the discovery
of a number of oil and gas deposits; developing
them, however, would have been unprofitable at
the time.22
The company returned to the Arctic in
2005, leasing a site in the Beaufort Sea. In 2008, it
leased another site in the Chukchi Sea. The areas
under development are located between 60 and
100 miles from shore.23
Despite Shell’s consider-
able efforts, significant reserves of oil have yet to
be discovered.
It should be noted that, since 2007, Shell’s Arctic
programme has been complicated by opposition
from environmental organizations in the United
States, triggering a series of lawsuits against the
company itself and against the Government, as
well as by stricter security requirements, which
were implemented following the explosion and
oil spill on the Deepwater Horizon platform in
the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.24
Since 2005, Shell drilled only two exploration
wells in 2012 in the Beaufort Sea and in the Chuk-
chi Sea. The drilling was accompanied by a series
of accidents on the Noble Discoverer25
drilling
vessel and the Kulluk oil rig.26
Shell also drilled
one well in 2015 in the Chukchi Sea.
Pursuant to the results of the drilling, the com-
panyannouncedithaddiscoveredsignsofoiland
gas deposits, but their amount was insufficient
for commercial development. Consequently, in
September 2015, Shell announced it pulled the
plug on its oil and gas development program on
the Alaska shelf, even though it had spent $7 bil-
lion on the program.27
In November 2015, Statoil announced it would not
further develop production on the Alaska shelf.
In 2016, ConocoPhillips, Eni, and Iona Energy also
abandoned their Alaska shelf projects.28
The companies’ decision to abandon their Alaska
projects stems from a range of factors. First, the
results of Shell’s work: having poured significant
investments into the project, it failed to discover
commercial hydrocarbon deposits. Second,
dropping oil prices and the need for oil and gas
companies to optimize their expenses. Third,
uncertainty stemming from the US Govern-
ment’s intentions to tighten Arctic shelf drilling
regulations.
The termination of Arctic shelf exploration did
not exactly come as a surprise for the US Govern-
ment. Back in 2014, the US Energy Information
Administration in its Annual Energy Outlook by
2040, projected a decline in oil production in
Alaska, including the offshore deposits, with gas
production showing insignificant growth.29
21
The throughput capacity of the oil pipeline is 2.1 million barrels per day. In 2013, the ongoing decline in oil production in Alaska meant that only 0.53 million
barrels were produced per day.
22
Shell – A Long Alaska History// Shell. URL: http://www.shell.us/content/dam/shell/static/usa/downloads/alaska/alaska-022510.pdf
23
Shell Alaska Readies Ice-Class Drilling Units For Beaufort Sea // Oil&Gas Journal. 10 January 2007.
URL: http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-105/issue-37/drilling-production/shell-alaska-readies-ice-class-drilling-units-for-beaufort-sea.html
24
Shell’s Lawsuit against Environmental Groups Declared Unconstitutional by Appeals Court // OCEANA. 2 December 2014.
URL: http://oceana.org/blog/2014/12/shell-s-lawsuit-against-environmental-groups-declared-unconstitutional-by-appeals-court
25
The Noble Discoverer was built in 1966 and was intended to transport timber. It was later turned into a drillship.
26
The Kulluk ice-resistant stationary platform was built in 1983 by the Japanese company Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding. Until 1993, it was operated by
the Canadian company Gulf Canada Resources in the country’s Arctic waters, before being decommissioned. Shell purchased the platform in 2005. The rig
was hauled to China to be recycled following an accident in December 2012.
27
Shell Abandons Contentious Arctic Exploration after Poor Results // Financial Times. 28 September 2015.
URL: https://www.ft.com/content/19de519e-65a8-11e5-a28b-50226830d644
28
Shell, ConocoPhillips Drop Arctic Drilling Plans // US News. 10 May 2016.
URL: http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-05-10/shell-conocophillips-drop-arctic-drilling-plans
29
Annual Energy Outlook 2014 with Projections to 2040 // US Energy Information Administration. April 2014.
URL: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf
7. 7
Russian International Affairs Council
Russia
The Soviet Union started actively developing its
Arctic shelf in the early 1980s. The most promis-
ing areas of the Arctic shelf were in the Pechora
and Kara seas, which are aquatic extensions of
the Timan-Pechora and Western Siberian oil and
gas provinces.30
Determined to develop oil fields at home and
abroad, the Soviet Union commissioned a num-
ber of drilling vessels. Investments in the creation
of a drilling fleet from 1983 to 1992 in the Barents,
Pechora and Kara seas led to the discovery of 10
large deposits.
In the period following the collapse of the Soviet
Union, from 1991 to 1998, Russia’s drilling fleet
operated almost exclusively on the shelf of West-
ern Europe, Asia, Africa and South America.
The termination of geological exploration work
in the Arctic after 1991, coupled with the loss of
the Arctic drilling fleet, mean that the Russian
Arctic shelf remains largely unexplored: only
20 per cent of the Barents Sea and 15 per cent of
the Kara Sea have been explored, while the East
Siberian, Laptev and Chukchi seas have not been
explored at all.
A total of 25 deposits have been discovered on
the Russian continental shelf, all of which are
located in the Barents and Kara seas (including
the Gulf of Ob and the Taz Estuary). Recoverable
commercial reserves in the deposits amount
to over 430 million tonnes of oil and 8.5 trillion
cubic metres of natural gas.
As a result of amendments made in 2008 to
Federal Law “On Mineral Wealth” dated 21 Febru-
ary 1992, which limited the range of companies
that can be issued licenses to carry out subsoil
work on the continental shelf of the Russian Fed-
eration, only Rosneft and Gazprom are currently
allowed to develop the area.
The first and thus far only oil and gas project to
be carried out on the Russian Arctic shelf is the
development of the Prirazlomnoye field, which
was discovered in the Pechora Sea in 1989. The
field has estimated reserves of 72 million tonnes
of oil. Gazprom Neft Shelf holds the license for its
development. In August 2011, the Prirazlomnaya
offshore ice-resistant stationary platform was
delivered to the oil field. It has a design capacity
of 6.5 million tonnes per year. Industrial develop-
ment of the field commenced in December 2013.
In 2014, the platform delivered 300,000 tonnes of
oil (around 2.2 million barrels) to the Port of Rot-
terdam. The oil produced at the deposit is called
Arctic Oil (ARCO). The area where the oil field is
located is noted for its complex natural and cli-
matic conditions – ice persists for seven months of
theyear,icehummockscanbeuptotwometresin
height, and the air temperature can drop to below
−45°С.31
Oil is taken off the rig by Mikhail Ulyanov
and Kirill Lavrov, two oil tankers of enhanced Arc-
tic 6 Ice Class (Arc6), owned by Sovkomflot.
In 2016, the company plans to produce 2.1 mil-
lion tonnes of oil. The project has not yet thus far
reached its design capacity. Nine oil-producing
wells are slated to be constructed and made
operational in 2016–2017; they will produce over
5 million tonnes of oil.
The Gazprom Group continues its preparations
to implement two projects in the Pechora Sea:
the Dolginskoye Oil Field and the North-Western
licensed site.
Four exploratory wells have already been drilled
at the Dolginskoye oil field. Recoverable reserves
are estimated to be more than 200 million tonnes
of oil equivalent (1.7 billion barrels)32
. Gazprom
wants to attract Vietnamese company PetroVi-
etnam to the project.33
Production is expected
to start in 2020, with peak levels of 4.8 million
tonnes of oil per year to be achieved by 2026.
Gazprom proposed China National Offshore
Oil Corporation participation in developing
the North-Western licensed site (estimated
deposits of 105 million tonnes of oil and
condensate, and 60 billion cubic meters of
gas).34
All in all, in accordance with its licensing
30
Novikov Y.N. Several Problems of Researching and Exploring Hydrocarbons’Potential of Russa’s Maritime Space // Oil and Gas Geology. Theory and Practice.
2012. V.7. № 4. P. 7. URL: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/5/68_2012.pdf (in Russian).
31
Savina A. Times of Arctic. Project for Development of Prirazlomnoye Field // Gazprom Neft.
URL: http://www.gazprom-neft.ru/press-center/sibneft-online/archive/2016-may/1113344
32
Gazprom Started Exploration Drilling on Dolginskoye Oil Field on the Arctic Shelf // Gazprom. 30 June 2014.
URL: http://www.gazprom-neft.ru/press-center/news/1102430/ (in Russian).
33
Gazprom and PetroVietnam Created a Joint Venture to Explore Dolginskoye Oil Field // Vedomosti. 25 November 2015.
URL: http://www.vedomosti.ru/companies/news/36446101/gazprom-neft-i-petrovietnam-sozdali-sp-dlya-razrabotki
34
Gazprom Offered CNООC Projects on Russian Shelf // Vesti Economy. 6 September 2016. URL: http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/74680 (in Russian).
8. 8
Ivan Panichkin. Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Development: Current Situation and Prospects
obligations, the Gazprom Group is mandated to
drill at least nine wells in the Arctic shelf prior to
2030.
As relevant as ever is the Shtokman field, which
was discovered in 1988 and is located in the
central part of the Barents Sea, 550 kilometres
northwest of Murmansk. The sea depth around
the oil field is between 320 and 340 metres.35
It
boasts reserves of 3.9 trillion cubic metres of gas
and 56.1 million tonnes of gas condensate.
In total, Gazprom owns seven licensed areas in
the Barents Sea, three in the Pechora Sea, thir-
teen in the Kara Sea, eight in the Gulf of Ob and
one in the East Siberian Sea.
The other Russian company, Rosneft, owns six
licensed areas in the Barents Sea, eight in the
Pechora Sea, four in the Kara Sea, four in the
Laptev Sea, one in the East Siberian Sea and
three in the Chukchi Sea. In order to fulfil its
existing license obligations, Rosneft signed stra-
tegic cooperation agreements in 2011 and 2012
with Exxon Mobil, Statoil and Eni that envisage,
among other things, joint geological exploration
and development of hydrocarbon deposits in the
Arctic shelf.
In August 2014, exploratory drilling work carried
out by the Rosneft–Exxon Mobile joint venture
Karmorneftegaz in the East-Prinovozemelsky-1
licensed area in the Kara Sea resulted in the dis-
covery of an oil field “Pobeda” with recoverable
reserves of 130 million tonnes of oil and 500 bil-
lion cubic metres of natural gas.36
It should be
noted that the region where the drilling is taking
place is marked by extremely difficult climatic
conditions: 1.2–1.6 metres of ice cover the sea for
270–300 days of the year, and temperatures rou-
tinely drop to as low as −46 ˚С in winter.
In order to fulfil its existing license obligations, in
2014 Rosneft signed a long-term agreement with
the Norwegian company North Atlantic Drilling
for the use of six offshore drilling rigs in its shelf
projects, including its Arctic shelf projects, until
2022.37
To increase access to its drilling fleet, in
2014 Rosneft also signed a framework agree-
ment with Seadrill Limited and North Atlantic
Drilling Limited on the exchange of assets and
investments.
The political tensions brought about by Russia’s
position on the Ukrainian crisis led to a number
of governments, including those of the United
States, the European Union and Norway, impo
sing sanctions against Russia in various sectors
of the economy during the second half of 2014.
These included embargoes on the supply of
equipment and technology, as well as bans
on companies providing services for projects
to develop offshore oil resources in the Arctic
implemented by Rosneft and Gazprom (includ-
ing Gazprom Neft). In addition, restrictions were
placed on the ability of Russian oil companies
and banks to attract financing from abroad.
These sanctions have already led to a number
of foreign oil companies, including Exxon Mobil,
suspending their participation in Russian Arctic
shelf projects.
Russian oil and gas sector is highly dependent
on equipment and services from states that
imposed these sanctions.
The level of dependence on “Western” equip-
ment and services to carry out projects on the
Arctic shelf – offshore drilling rigs, pump and
compressor equipment, downhole equipment,
electric power generation equipment and com-
puter software – is particularly high. At the same
time, import replacement is only possible in the
long term, that is, by 2020–2025 at the earliest.
Using equipment and services from third-party
countries, primarily China, carries greater risks
of accidents because the quality is noticeably
poorer.
As a consequence, there is a risk that Rosneft
and Gazprom could default on their license obli-
gations. Consequently, Rosneft and Gazprom
applied to the Federal Subsoil Resource Man-
agement Agency with a request to extend their
licensing obligations. 19 Rosneft sites in the Arc-
tic and 12 Gazprom sites had their schedules and
volumes of seismic exploration adjusted by 2—5
years on average, and their drilling schedules
adjusted by 3 years on average. These adjust-
ments applied, in particular, to two sites of the
Shtokman field, which Gazprom should make
operational no earlier than 2025 instead of 2016
as had been planned, and to the Dolginskoye
Field which is now to be made operational in
35
Shtokman Project // Gazprom. URL: http://www.gazprom.ru/about/production/projects/deposits/shp/ (in Russian).
36
Rosneft. URL: http://www.rosneft.ru/exxonmobil/09082014.html (in Russian)
37
Rosneft. URL: http://www.rosneft.ru/news/pressrelease/21082014.html (in Russian).
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Russian International Affairs Council
2031 instead of 2019. The largest number of sites
(nine) with adjusted schedule is in the Pechora
Sea, eight are in the Barents Sea, four are in the
Kara Sea, and one is in the East Siberian Sea38
.
Due to the exploration schedule adjustment, the
production on the Arctic shelf will yield only 13
million tonnes by 2030 instead of the previously
planned 18 million tonnes.
Rosneft, jointly with Rosneftegaz and Gazprom-
bank are constructing the Zvezda shipbuilding
complex at the Far Eastern Shipbuilding and
Ship Repair Center. Against the background of
the imposed sanctions, all Rosneft’s contracts
to build new maritime facilities and vessels, as
well as to design and build two multifunctional
enhanced ice-class support vessels will go to the
Zvezda complex.39
On the whole, despite the existing problems,
developing Arctic oil and gas deposits remains a
strategic priority for Russia, given that the shelf
deposits are estimated to have 106 billion tonnes
of oil equivalent, including 70 trillion cubic
meters of gas reserves.
At the same time, implementing the plans for the
Arctic shelf development (bringing Arctic shelf
production to 35 million tonnes of oil and to
10% of all Russian-produced natural gas by 2035)
might require investments of over $1 trillion40
and is largely hindered by the financial sanctions.
Conclusion
The continental shelf plays an important role in
sustaining global oil and gas production. Over
the past ten years, more than two-thirds of the
world’s hydrocarbon reserves have been dis-
covered on the continental shelf. All the Arctic
states have passed legislation stating the strate-
gic importance of the area, primarily in terms of
hydrocarbon reserves.41
That being said, the Arctic states have barely
even begun to explore and develop these
resources. At present, few projects are being car-
ried out on the continental shelf of the United
States, Norway and Russia. Experts predict that,
by 2030, geological exploration will primarily be
conducted in the Arctic shelf, and deposits in
the area will be prepared for further, large-scale
development.
The ability of the Arctic states and oil companies
to develop the Arctic’s offshore oil resources will
depend on the following factors:
1. Technological development
The oil and gas projects that are currently being
implemented on the Arctic shelf differ greatly
in terms of the technology they use. This is due
to the fact that climate conditions vary in these
areas. As a result, new technologies must be
developed and technological solutions found
for practically every single project. This increases
project timeframes and costs.
2. Infrastructure development
At present, the number of on-land infrastructure
facilities (repair stations, supply depots and res-
cue centres) for carrying out offshore oil and gas
operations is extremely limited.
What is more, the capacity and configuration of
existing pipeline systems and ports (terminals) in
the region limit the ability to deliver higher vol-
umes of hydrocarbon to consumers outside the
Arctic.
3. Climatic and natural conditions
Low temperatures, pack ice and icebergs are
distinctive features of the climatic and natu-
ral conditions in the region. They significantly
reduce the available time to perform drilling
and other offshore operations, and additional
requirements in terms of equipment and person-
nel thus need to be put in place.
4. Environmental safety
It is clear that any anthropogenic activity in
the Arctic should have a minimal effect on the
Arctic ecosystem, causing as little harm as pos-
sible. Sections of the Arctic Ocean are officially
protected, and any kind of mining activity is pro-
hibited there.
38
The Arctic without Wells // RBC. 9 June 2016. URL: http://www.rbc.ru/newspaper/2016/06/10/57593ed59a79476c142e7256 (in Russian).
39
Rosneft. 17 August 2016. URL: https://www.rosneft.ru/press/news/item/183325/ (in Russian).
40
Ministry of Energy of Russia will Need Around 1 trillion USD of Investment in Infrastructural Energy Projects Until 2020 // Pro Arctic. 21 June 2016.
URL:http://pro-arctic.ru/21/06/2012/news/377 (in Russian).
41
Russia adopted the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic for the Period until 2020 and a Further Perspective on 18 September 2008; the United
States passed the National Strategy for the Arctic Region on 10 May 2013; Canada put through Canada’s Northern Strategy: Our North, Our Heritage, Our Fu-
ture in 2009; Norway passed the Government’s High North Strategy in 2006 and published the report“A StrategicVision for the North”in 2011; and Denmark
adopted the Kingdom of Denmark’s Strategy for the Arctic 2011–2020 in 2011.
10. 10
Ivan Panichkin. Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Development: Current Situation and Prospects
The increased activity of environmental orga-
nizations that oppose resource development
activities in the Arctic could significantly compli-
cate the plans of oil and gas companies and Arctic
states to carry out their respective projects.
It is also necessary to take into account the risks
associated with the consequences of possible
offshore oil spills, which could not only lead to
the company responsible for the spillage going
bankrupt, but also to all offshore development
activities being halted as a response to pressure
from environmental organizations.
5. Financial and economic conditions
According to a number of experts, Arctic offshore
oil projects are only profitable if the price of oil is
between $40 and $90 per barrel, depending on
the region. As such, the decline in world oil prices
that began in 2014 forced many oil and gas com-
panies to announce that they were suspending
their operations in the Arctic because they were
not profitable. At the same time, several other oil
and gas companies that have already invested
significant resources in Arctic projects have con-
tinued their work in the region. They are waiting
for a favourable change in prices once commer-
cial operations start.
Tougher national and international regulations
on industrial and environmental safety may exert
an additional financial burden on Arctic projects,
particularly the requirements that state that com-
panies should have the necessary equipment to
drill relief wells quickly in the event of a spill.
6. Sanctions
Sanctions have been imposed against Russia by
a number of Western countries, including all the
Arctic states, with regard to supplying technolo-
gies and services to the Arctic shelf. This seriously
hamstrings Russia’s ability to carry out projects in
the region. At the same time, it should be noted
that restricting access to proven technologies
and solutions increases the risk of accidents.
It is clear that each of the factors described above
carries its own risks of uncertainty. For example,
it is difficult to predict what oil prices will be in
the long term, what breakthroughs will be made
in offshore drilling technology in the Arctic, and
whether the polar ice caps will increase in volume
by 2040, as some scientists have predicted.
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Russian International Affairs Council
1. It is necessary to start developing economically sound technologies and technical solu-
tions capable of ensuring safe and efficient oil and gas production, and to start building
the appropriate infrastructure, given that 5–10 or more years may elapse between making
the decision to start geological exploration and starting commercial oil production in the
Arctic. Given the scale of the task at hand, it is expedient to use private-public partnership
mechanisms in this area.
2. Arctic states should start developing unified rules and standards. It will allow oil and
gas companies to develop and use unified technical solutions in all the states of the
region without spending time and money on adapting to the requirements and rules of
each individual country. Some work in this area is currently being done, but it is largely
fragmented and non-systemic.
3. Enhancing cooperation between Arctic states and oil and gas companies concerned
becomesmoreandmorerelevantintheareaofcreatingcommonapproachestodeveloping
new technologies, unified standards and rules. It would be expedient to continue using
the Arctic Council, a greatly respected high-level intergovernmental forum, as a venue for
carrying out this work.
4. Enhancing international Arctic cooperation allowed to ensure top security and low level
of confrontation in the region. Arctic states need to further avoid politicizing Arctic
cooperation against the general geopolitical background. Otherwise, it will have a
significant impact on the prospects of conducting coordinated policies and implementing
joint projects. Transferring international tensions into the Arctic against the background
of sanctions may prompt Russia to consider involving non-regional actors, primarily Asian
states, in the Arctic cooperation. Under such circumstances, international cooperation in
the Arctic may undergo serious changes, and the volume of contracts for Western-made
shelf development equipment may decline significantly.
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