Konkraftrapport_eng_fullversjon

North and the Norwegian Continental Shelf
-Introduction, Summary and Recommendations
KonKraft report no. 2016 – 1

KonKraft in brief
KonKraft is a collaboration arena for the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association, the Federation of Norwegian Industries,
the Norwegian Shipowners Association and the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO), with LO members
Fellesforbundet og Industri Energi. It serves as an agenda-setter for national strategies in the petroleum sector, and
works to maintain the competitiveness of the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS), so that Norway remains an attractive
area for investment by the Norwegian and international oil and gas industry – including suppliers and the maritime
sector. The council is KonKraft’s supreme body. In addition comes an executive committee and a secretariat responsible
for ongoing activities and day-to-day operations.
Council members
∎∎ Gerd Kristiansen, President of the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO)
∎∎ Karl Eirik Schjøtt-Pedersen, Director General of the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
∎∎ Stein Lier-Hansen, Director General of the Federation of Norwegian Industries
∎∎ Sturla Henriksen, CEO of the Norwegian Shipowners Association
∎∎ Jørn Eggum, President, Fellesforbundet
∎∎ Frode Alfheim, Vice President, Industri Energi
∎∎ Arne Sigve Nylund, Executive Vice President Development and production Norway, Statoil
∎∎ Tor Arnesen, Managing Director, Norske Shell
∎∎ Jan Arve Haugan, President & CEO Kværner
∎∎ Jan Skogseth, President & CEO Aibel
∎∎ Jakob Korsgaard, Managing Director, Mærsk
∎∎ Odd Strømsnes, Managing Director, Technip
Executive committee members
∎∎ Erling Kvadsheim, Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
∎∎ Turid Øygard, Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
∎∎ Torbjørn Giæver Eriksen, Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
∎∎ Hans Petter Bøe Rebo, Federation of Norwegian Industries
∎∎ Runar Rugtvedt, Federation of Norwegian Industries
∎∎ Thomas Saxegaard, Norwegian Shipowners Association
∎∎ Georg Oftedal, Norwegian Shipowners Association
∎∎ Olav Lie, Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO)
∎∎ Jørn Prangerød, Fellesforbundet
∎∎ Johnny Håvik, Industri Energi
KonKraft’s secretariat
∎∎ Roger Pedersen, Head of secretariat, KonKraft
∎∎ Inger Hoff, adviser, KonKraft

Published by KonKraft, May 2016
Layout: HK Reklamebyrå, Tromsø
Print: Lundblad, Tromsø
Photos front side: Rino Engdahl

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
1.1. The area covered by the report: “northern NCS” ........................................................................................................................ 4
1.2. The NCS and its northern part in a climate perspective ............................................................................................................. 6
1.2.1. Road map for the NCS and the KonKraft climate report ............................................................................................................ 7
1.2.2. Northern NCS and profitability .................................................................................................................................................... 8
1.3. A changing NCS – from south to north ......................................................................................................................................... 8
1.4. Northern Norway is important for the national supplies sector .............................................................................................. 10
1.5. Is the far northern environment more vulnerable to petroleum operations? .......................................................................... 12
1.6. Environmental risk: facts, fears and precautions ..................................................................................................................... 12
1.7. Contents of the report ................................................................................................................................................................ 13
2. Summary and recommendations ........................................................................................................................................ 14
2.1. Recommendations ..................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Index

North and the Norwegian Continental Shelf4 1. Introduction4
1.1.
THE AREA COVERED BY THE REPORT: «NORTHERN
NCS»
The southern geographical boundary of this report is
65°30’ N. This marks the boundary between Nordland
and Nord-Trøndelag counties. The continental shelf
above that latitude will be termed the northern NCS in
this report, and will be the basis for the discussions and
figures presented. The 65°30’ N parallel is defined as a
block boundary in the Norwegian Sea. It also serves as a
boundary between licences with the exception of produ-
ction licences (PLs) 837, 798 and 211 (B). These lie in an
area which straddles the 65°30’ N parallel, but the bulk of
each licence lies above the boundary.
This delineation puts the oil field Skarv on the northern
NCS while excluding Heidrun. That also corresponds with
which of these fields has their supply based in Nordland.
The Norwegian petroleum sector has developed over 50
years into the country’s most important industry. This
has laid the basis for Norway’s current position as one
of the world’s wealthiest nations. KonKraft published
its report on Oil and gas welfare activities in northern
Norway in 2009. Over the seven years which have passed
since then, the opportunity space for far-northern
petroleum operations has expanded. The most important
event was the 2010 boundary treaty in the Barents Sea
between Norway and Russia, which makes oil and gas
activities possible on both sides of the dividing line in an
area regarded as promising in resource terms.
Some significant regional, national and international
trends can be identified from an overarching perspective.
The climate challenge is the biggest of these. It calls for a
massive energy transformation to reduce global carbon
emissions. Three important development trends on the
Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) are that gas produ-
ction has outstripped oil output, greater use is being
made of subsea technology and activities are shifting
gradually from south to north.
The background for this report is the KonKraft organi-
sation’s common view that it is now important to take
advantage of the expanded opportunity space in the far
north in order to secure value creation, robust centres of
expertise and jobs. Although attention in these pages is
concentrated primarily on the northern NCS, the oil and
gas sector will always be a nationwide industry.
The purpose of this report is to make a fact-based contri-
bution in discussions on the opportunities and challenges
presented by oil and gas operations on the northern NCS.
One of its basic assumptions is that increased activity in
the far north is desirable, providing climatic, company
and socioeconomic conditions can be met. Petroleum
operations require a long-term perspective because the
industry itself is a long-term business. KonKraft wants to
identify the conditions which must be in place in order to
realise increased oil and gas production in the far north
towards 2030.
1. Introduction

North and the Norwegian Continental Shelf 51. Introduction 5
Figure 1.1.
A map of the northern NCS covered by this report, with its southern limit of 65°30’ N. (Source: KonKraft)
65°30’ N
Open for petroleum activity
Open, special schemes, see WP no 28
(2010-2011)
Announced blocks in 23rd licensing round
Awards in predefined areas (APA)
Assumed maximum extent of sedimentary
rocks which may contain petroleum
Limits of the NCS according to the
UN Convention on the Law of the Sea
65°30’ N-border

Fossil fuels currently account for 81 per cent of world
energy consumption, and a very high proportion of global
greenhouse emissions. According to the 2°C (450 ppm)
scenario from the International Energy Agency (IEA),
these sources will account for an estimated 60 per cent of
global energy consumption in 2040. Demand will rise by
15 per cent for natural gas and fall by 21 and 36 per cent
for oil and coal respectively. The Paris agreement thereby
also builds on an understanding that the world economy
for a long time will depend on supplies of fossil fuels.
Minimising greenhouse gas emissions from production,
transport and use of these energy sources is therefore
important. Renewable sources will significantly increase
their share of energy consumption in the time to come.
The IEA assumes a growth of almost 2 000 per cent
for other renewable sources up to 2050,1
and assumes
an annual rise of almost 10 per cent. However, earlier
forecasts have underestimated the expansion for renewa-
bles. Despite this growth, and even if it proves higher still
for such renewables as solar and wind, oil and gas will
continue to account for a large share of the energy mix
in 2050. An important change which will be required is a
reduction in the share of coal in both power generation
and as an industrial input. Coal is the most carbon-inten-
sive fossil fuel,2
and emits twice as much CO₂ as natural
gas.
1 Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2015
2 In other words, has the highest greenhouse gas emissions per unit of
energy produced.
Figure 1.2.
Coal, oil and gas consumption in the IEA’s 450 ppm/2°C scenario.
(Source: IEA, WEO 2015, World primary energy demand by fuel and scenario (Mtoe))
1.2
THE NCS AND ITS NORTHERN PART IN A CLIMATE
PERSPECTIVE
World energy markets face big changes in upcoming
years. This restructuring will be essential if global
warming is to be limited to 2°C. At the 2015 UN climate
summit in Paris, the world leaders reached agreement
that global emissions had to be cut as quickly as possible.
The overall goal is to limit global warming to “well below
2°C”, and the countries will work to prevent the rise exce-
eding 1.5°C compared with the pre-industrial level.
These energy-market measures and reorganisations coin-
cide with other major changes in the world. Forecasts
indicate that global population will rise by 2.5 billion
people up to 2050, with prosperity also set to rise. The
world leaders reached an agreement in 2015 on the UN
sustainable development goals – a common action plan
with 17 targets for ending poverty, combating inequality
and halting climate change by 2030. Energy supplies
at affordable prices are an important precondition for
value creation, growth and prosperity. Healthy economic
development is also necessary if the world is to achieve
the transition demanded by the dual climate and energy
challenge.
OILCOAL
36%
2013 2040
3929
2495
21%
2013 2040
4219
3351
GAS
2901
3335
15%
2013 2040

1.2.1.
Road map for the NCS and the KonKraft climate report
Global climate targets and the Paris agreement will result
in more stringent regulation of future greenhouse gas
emissions. Expectations are high that the petroleum
sector will reduce emissions, enhance energy efficiency
and utilise low-emission technology. The long-term value
creation potential on the NCS must be realised while
helping the world to reach its climate goals.
It has been decided to draw up a road map for the
Norwegian oil and gas industry. 4
The ambitions are two
folded. First to draw the ambitions for reducing greenho-
use gas emissions from the NCS by 2030 and 2050. And
define the industry’s ambition for long-term production
and value creation on the NCS over the same periods.
Work on the road map is being coordinated with an
updating of KonKraft’s climate report. 5
This work will
also be significant for conditions relating to the northern
NCS. The NCS is included in the EU-ETS, where goals
have been set for 2030. These are expected to be carried
forward, with emissions having to be further reduced up
to 2050. The EU’s objective is an 80 per cent cut in green-
house gas emissions by 2050. That means a substantial
reduction must also be achieved on the NCS in the same
time frame. In future, this will have a particular effect on
the choice of power supply solutions, requirements for
technology advances to reduce emissions, and the choice
of development solutions. At the same time, emissions
from the use of oil and gas must be cut substantially.
Work on the road map and the climate report will be
completed during 2016.
3 Norwegian oil and gas production leads the world for low emissions per
unit produced. The amount of CO₂ per unit produced released on the NCS
is about half the world average, and emissions of other greenhouse gases
are even lower..
4 KonKraft’s council gave its support to work on a road map for the pe-
troleum sector, which will be led by the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
and the Federation of Norwegian Industries. Work on the road map will
be carried out by a work group drawn from Norwegian Oil and Gas, the
Federation of Norwegian Industries, the Norwegian Confederation of Trade
Unions (LO), the Norwegian Shipowners Association and the KonKraft
secretariat.
5 KonKraft published The petroleum industry and climate issues (report
no 5) in 2009. Its council decided to update this document in the autumn of
2014.
Gas has an important role in reducing greenhouse gas
emissions. Norwegian natural gas, for example, is crucial
for Europe’s ability to reach its climate goals, and Norway
currently accounts for about a fifth of total European
gas supplies. Every third French meal is cooked on
Norwegian gas, and likewise every fifth British cup of tea.
The EU has large coal reserves, while its gas production
is in decline. If Norway’s petroleum sector was to cease
delivering gas to Europe, the chances are that this energy
would be replaced by coal with higher emissions. Coal
currently accounts for no less than 17 per cent of electri-
city generation in Europe and 25 per cent in Germany
– despite its major commitment to renewables. Domestic
EU gas production is expected to decline by about 50 per
cent up to 2030, and thereby the requirements for import
will increase. The UK government decided in the autumn
of 2015 to phase out coal-fired power by 2025, and aims
to replace this generating capacity with natural gas and
nuclear energy.
Europe is the largest market for Norwegian petro-
leum, more than 90 per cent of the Norwegian oil and
gas output are transported to, and sold there. Norway
ranks as a strategic energy partner for the EU, and the
European Commission wants to integrate the Norwegian
electricity and petroleum sectors even more closely with
the EU’s single market. Norway’s short-distance oil and
gas deliveries are important for European security of
energy supply, and have a low carbon footprint compared
with petroleum from alternative suppliers.3
Moreover,
the Norwegian petroleum sector is an integrated part of
the EU’s emission trading system (ETS). Norway’s oil and
gas industry believes that the ETS should remain the EU’s
most important climate-policy instrument. A well-functi-
oning ETS with sufficiently high emission prices will
contribute to replace coal with gas, and thereby reduce
global emissions. Increased ETS rates would provide
additional incentives for developing low-emission techn-
ologies, while giving Norwegian natural gas a competitive
edge in Europe. That is because gas pollutes less than
coal and because Norway produces it with lower emissi-
ons than other countries.
One of the biggest challenges for conducing an ambiti-
ous climate policy in Norway and the EU is to limit the
scope of carbon leakage – whereby global greenhouse gas
emissions increase because companies move production
outside the European Economic Agreement (EEA) area
because the ETS increase their costs and makes them less
competitive. Norway’s power-intensive sector, for exam-
ple, receives a carbon compensation from the govern-
ment because the ETS has boosted electricity prices in
Norway even though the industry uses hydropower.

developed and brought on stream. Production will
decline from the late 2020s, and a number of the large
fields on the NCS – particularly in the North Sea – are
likely to be approaching the end of their producing lives
or shut down after 2030.
A failure by Norway to maintain output will mean a
decline in revenues, value creation, expertise and jobs in
the industry, which would in turn affect opportunities to
maintain Norwegian prosperity. In addition, oil and gas
would be delivered from other parts of the world with
higher emissions of greenhouse gas than the NCS. This
makes it crucial for the industry to obtain new, attractive
exploration acreage and to find additional resources
which can be developed through to production. As figure
1.4 shows, production in recent years has been much
higher than resource growth from new discoveries. Over
the past 20 years, discoveries have only exceeded the
quantity produced and sold in 1997 and 2010. It was in
these years that Ormen Lange and Johan Sverdrup
respectively were discovered.
Ormen Lange came on stream in 2007, while Johan
Sverdrup is expected to do so in late 2019. Fields on the
NCS require an average of 10 years to move from disco-
very and production.
6 The extraordinary profitability of producing petroleum resources (eco-
nomic rent) means the oil companies are subject to a special tax of 53 per
cent in addition to Norway’s standard corporation tax rate of 25 per cent.
7 See section 3c of the Petroleum Tax Act.
1.2.2.
Northern NCS and profitability
The oil and gas companies in Norway currently pay a
marginal tax rate of 78 per cent 6
on production from the
NCS, making this one of the world’s most heavily taxed
petroleum provinces. To encourage a greater diversity of
small and medium-sized companies, and to boost explo-
ration on the NCS, the government refunds the tax value
of losses incurred from exploration.7
With a marginal
tax rate of 78 per cent, companies can request that the
tax value of these expenses be refunded. This puts new
players without taxable earnings on a par with establis-
hed participants who can offset their exploration costs
against taxable income.
Questions are sometimes raised over whether this tax
system provides incentives for socioeconomic unprofita-
ble investment relating to fields due to be on stream after
2050. Where developments in the Barents sea and other
northern parts of the NCS are concerned, expected pro-
duction life extends not only to but well beyond 2050. By
then, demands for much lower carbon emissions from oil
and gas production will be very noticeable. The profitabi-
lity of fields which fail to reach such targets will thereby
be low. It is important to appreciate in this context that
no investment in new production capacity – whether in
established areas for petroleum output or in new areas
– will be made unless such spending is expected to yield
the return required by the companies. If investment is
commercially profitable, it will also be socioeconomically
profitable for the government. An illustration of expecta-
tions for future profitability is provided by the interest
shown in applying for acreage in new areas, such as in
the 23rd licensing round.
1.3.
A CHANGING NCS – FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
Oil and gas production on the NCS peaked in 2004, and
oil output has more than halved since its own peak
in 2001. The substantial expansion in gas production
during recent years has stabilised overall petroleum
output on the NCS. Substantial gas volumes remain in
existing Norwegian fields, which also offer a big potential
for improved recovery and exploration close to them. But
new commercial discoveries are required if Norway is
to be a long-term gas supplier at its current level and to
exploit its existing gas infrastructure.
Looking further ahead, production on the NCS can
be maintained at a relatively high and stable level up
to 2025-30. That requires existing discoveries, such
as Johan Castberg in the Barents Sea, to be actually

Figure 1.3:
Historical production of oil, gas, natural gas liquids and condensate in Norway, 1971-2015, and a forecast for
future production by resource class, 2016-30 (in million scm oe). (Source: NPD )
Figure 1.4.
Resource growth and overall petroleum production on the NCS in million scm oe, 1995-2015. (Source: NPD )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Overall petroleum production on the NCSResource growth on the NCS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Oil Condensate NGL Gas Reserves Resources in fields Resources in discoveries

1.4.
NORTHERN NORWAY IS IMPORTANT FOR THE
NATIONAL SUPPLIES SECTOR
Supplying oil and gas operations is Norway’s second lar-
gest industry by turnover.9
This supplies sector compri-
ses more than 1 250 companies involved in seismic
surveying, engineering design, fabrication and drilling
equipment, which deliver everything from valves, bolts
and hoses to fabrication yards, advanced offshore supply
and service vessels, and subsea technology. The industry
has developed over 50 years of petroleum operations
in Norway, and ranks today as a highly competent and
internationally competitive sector spread over the whole
country. Some 140 000 people were directly employed by
the supplies industry in 2014.10
The Norwegian supplies industry had a turnover of NOK
524 billion in 2013, with about 60 per cent deriving
from the domestic market. Deliveries are made to many
countries worldwide, with South Korea, Brazil, the UK,
the USA, Angola, Australia and Singapore as the largest
recipients.
Norway’s oil and gas industry must secure new attractive
exploration acreage in the time to come if a competitive
supplies industry is to be maintained nationwide which
is far ahead in developing technology and new soluti-
ons. That will make it possible to safeguard Norwegian
employment, centres of expertise and tax revenues
even when petroleum production from the NCS declines
towards 2050.
8 The NPD expects 202 million scm oe to be present in Norwegian Sea
North-East.
9 The oil and gas sector is Norway’s largest industry by value creation,
government revenues, investment and export value. It accounted in 2015
for 15 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), 20 per cent of government
revenues, 26 per cent of total investment and 39 per cent of total exports.
(Source: national budget 2016)
10 Industry builders 2015, Iris report 2015/031.
The North Sea is the most mature area of the NCS, where
most producing fields (61) and the bulk of the largest
ones are to be found. With 16 fields on stream, parts of
the Norwegian Sea also rank to a great extent as a mature
area. The exception is the northernmost section. The
North Sea will remain important on the NCS, with the
Johan Sverdrup discovery in 2010 not least contributing
to renewed confidence that big new resources could be
found in this area.
Nevertheless, the far north is where the largest remai-
ning undiscovered resources are expected to lie. The
Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) estimates
undiscovered resources on the NCS to be 2.8 billion stan-
dard cubic metres of oil equivalent (scm oe) or roughly
17.5 million barrels of oe. After almost 50 years of oil
and gas production on the NCS, just under 50 per cent of
the resources have been produced and sold. The NPD’s
resource estimate also shows that the big undiscovered
resources on the NCS are probably in the far north. As
figure 1.5 shows, the Barents Sea is the part of the NCS
where the largest total future resources are expected to
be found. Including Norwegian Sea North-East, with the
Nordland VI and VII plus Troms II areas,8
more than half
the estimated undiscovered resources lie on the nort-
hern NCS. The big gas resources for the future are also
expected to be located in the Barents Sea. Only a third of
the gas resources on the NCS have been produced, and
the Barents Sea is also expected to contain two-thirds of
those which remain.
Figure 1.5:
Total undiscovered resources broken down by oil, gas
and condensate for the North, Norwegian and Barents
Sea (in million scm oe). (Source: NPD)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
North Sea Norwegian Sea Barents Sea
Oil Gas Condensate

Figure 1.6.
Norway’s supplies industry is very diverse. (Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Energy)
Figure 1.7.
Total turnover (in billion NOK) from Norwegian suppliers to the petroleum sector, including shipping companies,
etc, in Norway and internationally. (Sources: Federation of Norwegian Industries business trend report for 2015
and Rystad Energy)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Norway International turnover Norway (projections) International (projections)

1.6.
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK: FACTS, FEARS AND
PRECAUTIONS
Like all other forms of administration, the management
of sea areas, natural resources and the environment is
risk-based. Very little of what humans do is risk-free, and
people take conscious or unconscious account of risk in
most of their undertakings. A best possible grasp of risk
is the basis for good management. This is a matter of
understanding the picture of possible consequences and
having a reasoned view of the probability that these con-
sequences could occur. Management is not only knowled-
ge-based, but must also accord a significant place to the
precautionary principle.
The latter will be applied to environmental manage-
ment where scientific documentation is inadequate,
non-existent or uncertain, and where relevant scientific
assessments indicate reasonable grounds for concern
that substantial harmful effects for the environment
will occur which conflict with the protection needed or
determined by political decision. People must not wait to
act until incontrovertible evidence is available. The Rio
declaration 11
defines the principle as follows: 12
“In order to protect the environment, the precautionary
approach shall be widely applied by States according to
their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall
not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective
measures to prevent environmental degradation.”
Norwegian legislation (the Nature Diversity Act) also
emphasises that indications of significant or irreversible
damage should be present before the principle is invoked
as a basis for decisions.
Building on a knowledge-based management of resour-
ces and the environment is fundamental for the oil and
gas industry. It wants to learn more about and achieve an
ever-better basis for understanding actual risk related to
its present and future operations.
11 The Rio declaration, adopted at the UN conference on environment
and development held at Rio de Janeiro in 1992, contains 27 principles for
achieving sustainable development.
12 Principle 15 of the Rio declaration.
1.5.
IS THE FAR NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT MORE
VULNERABLE TO PETROLEUM OPERATIONS?
The waters off Lofoten and northwards in the Barents
Sea are among the most productive in the world, and
contain a significant share of the marine resources in the
north-eastern Atlantic. They contain substantial resour-
ces of fish, seabirds and marine mammals. The regional
and local significance of fishing increases northwards in
Norway, and this industry is particularly important north
from Lofoten. High productivity of plankton and fish
creates the basis for a large variety of seabird species and
marine mammals. A significant proportion of the world
stocks of some seabird species are found in this area,
even outside the breeding season. These waters accor-
dingly have substantial economic and ecological value.
However, it is important to understand the distinction
between valuable and vulnerable. The substantial
economic and natural value in the far north is used as a
justification for regarding the area as more sensitive than
the southern parts of the NCS. This provides a basis for
warning against oil and gas operations in the far north.
But a valuable resource is not necessarily vulnerable to
every form of stress.
Vulnerability is often defined as “the ability of a species
or a habitat to maintain its natural condition in relation
to external, often human-induced, stress”. The vulnerabi-
lity of a species, a stock or an ecosystem cannot be valued
without also specifying the stresses involved and their
potential effects on the relevant resource. Deepwater
coral banks on the northern NCS are very vulnerable to
physical damage, but not necessarily to the discharge of
drill cuttings. When assessing vulnerability, the robust-
ness, resistance and adaptability of the resource must be
taken into account. Robustness says something about the
ability of the resource to return to its normal condition
after an impact, while resistance deals with the way it
withstands change through its general condition.
The northern NCS is characterised by great variations in
climate and other environmental factors. While condi-
tions in the southern part of this region are comparable
in terms of variability with the North Sea, seasonal
contrasts become greater when moving northwards.
Generally speaking, species are adapted to the great
variations found in the Barents Sea, with life strategies
which make stocks robust in relation to natural changes
in temperature, variable food supplies and other external
stresses.

An overview is provided in chapter 9 of the work being
pursued continuously in the oil and gas industry to
ensure good safety and emergency preparedness in the
far north. Addressing the need for a high level of atten-
tion to the far northern environment, chapter 10 discus-
ses both acute and regular discharges – particularly in
relation to possible consequences for the environment.
Environmental risk is often defined as the probability
of a discharge and the scope of the associated environ-
mental damage. This definition also takes account of the
uncertainty in both the probability of an incident and the
assessment of the scope of its damaging effects.
Offshore oil and gas operations in high latitudes are not a
new phenomenon, and the industry has developed equip-
ment and methods for oil spill response under conditions
far more challenging than would be encountered on the
northern NCS. Chapter 11 describes the present posi-
tion for oil spill preparedness and dimensioning, as well
current development activities.
Attention in this report is primarily concentrated on the
oil and gas industry and its present and future significa-
nce for northern Norway. This region of the country has
a diversified economy and a broad range of industries
which are important contributors to value creation and
employment there. The fishing and tourism sectors
occupy a special place in relation to the oil and gas indus-
try, and chapter 12 takes a closer look at the interface
between these three activities.
1.7.
CONTENTS OF THE REPORT
Chapter 2 summarises the main points in the report and
KonKraft’s recommendations to the government and
the industry. Chapter 3 provides a description of the
processes involved in opening new areas and awarding
production licences. It also identifies opened areas on the
northern NCS, the status of resources, reserves, discove-
ries and fields in these waters, and the player picture.
Chapter 4 presents the industry’s view of those parts
of the northern NCS which are not open to oil and gas
activities. It also shows how such operations could be
conducted in Nordland VI and VII plus Troms II if these
areas were opened.
In order to assess future spin-offs, expertise gaps and
infrastructure requirements for operation and explora-
tion, this report presents a vision of the way the northern
NCS might look in 2030. This future picture is outlined
in chapter 5, which also presents options for tomorrow’s
gas infrastructure and for transporting oil from the nort-
hern NCS.
Under the title “spin-offs from the oil and gas industry
in northern Norway”, chapter 6 presents the revenues
generated for the nation from the northern NCS, spin-offs
from development projects and the oil and gas industry
in Norway’s three northernmost counties. It also descri-
bes how the industry has contributed to expertise enhan-
cement and innovation in north Norwegian companies.
A status report on the way educational institutions
in northern Norway facilitate learning directed at the
petroleum sector is provided in chapter 7. Furthermore,
collaboration between the petroleum industry and the
educational sector in the region is described – including
requirements for courses directed at oil and gas ope-
rations. The measures which must be implemented to
highlight career opportunities in the petroleum industry
for today’s young people are also outlined.
Chapter 8 describes the status of the logistical infrastru-
cture required for operating the field centres currently
on stream, and the exploration-related facilities which
must be in place. The chapter starts with a description of
the base structure in northern Norway. These facilities
are an activity directly related to petroleum operations,
and activate in turn a broad range of indirect enterprises.
Thereafter, the transport infrastructure and communica-
tion solutions are discussed.

North and the Norwegian Continental Shelf14 2. Summary and recommendations14
2. Summary and
Recommendations
This makes it crucial for the industry to obtain new,
attractive exploration acreage and to find additional
resources which can be brought on stream. Providing
more acreage is also a precondition for maintaining a
competitive supplies industry throughout Norway, which
is still among the front runners in developing technology
and new solutions.
The most attractive unopened areas on the NCS are
Nordland VI and VII plus Troms II. They have known
geology and a big resource potential, and are regarded
as technically uncomplicated for exploration and for
development solutions. Oil and gas activity in these areas
has long been under discussion, and much data and
knowledge have been acquired. An impact assessment of
these areas must be conducted as quickly as possible.
Impact assessments are intended to identify the possible
effects of opening an area to petroleum operations on
commercial and environmental conditions, including
possible pollution threats, and the expected economic
and social consequences. They also ensures the involve-
ment of local and regional government and organisations
with a special interest in the issue. The government can
then submit a recommendation to the Storting (parlia-
ment) on opening the area to petroleum operations if the
assessment and resource mapping provide a basis for
doing so. An impact assessment does not automatically
mean an area is opened for petroleum operations. That
has not been the case on several occasions in the past.
1 KonKraft’s council gave its support to work on a road map for the
petroleum sector, which will be led by the Norwegian Oil and Gas Associati-
on and the Federation of Norwegian Industries.
2 From the International Energy Agency (IEA).
This chapter summarises the report’s main points and
presents KonKraft’s recommendations to the government
and the industry.
Oil and gas operations have developed over the past 50
years into Norway’s most important industry. This has
laid the basis for making the country one of the world’s
wealthiest nations. The world’s energy markets face
major changes in coming years, and the climate challenge
must be overcome. The Norwegian oil and gas industry
plays an important role here. It has been decided to
develop a road map for the petroleum sector which will
define ambitions for reduced greenhouse gas emissions
from the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) up to 2030
and 2050, and for the industry’s long-term production
and value creation.1
Only about half the areas which may contain oil and gas
on the NCS are open for petroleum activity today. Half
the estimated undiscovered resources are expected to
lie on the northern NCS. Oil and gas production above
65° 30’ N currently takes place from four field centres:
Goliat, Skarv, Norne and Snøhvit. Aasta Hansteen is
under development. Work is also now under way to find
development solutions for Johan Castberg, Alta/Gohta
and Wisting.
Oil and gas production from the NCS peaked in 2004.
Gas accounted for more than half the total output in
2015, while oil production has fallen by over 50 per
cent from 2001. Petroleum output is set to decline from
the late 2020s, and a number of the large fields on the
NCS – particularly in the North Sea – are likely to be
approaching the end of their producing lives after 2030.
A failure by Norway to maintain output will mean a
decline in revenues, value creation, expertise and jobs in
the industry. That would make it demanding to maintain
Norwegian prosperity. Since forecasts indicate 2
that the
world will continue to need petroleum, that would then
be delivered from other parts of the world with higher
greenhouse gas emissions than the NCS.

North and the Norwegian Continental Shelf 152. Summary and recommendations 15
solutions, a “giant” discovery in the Barents Sea with a
new Barentsrør pipeline, infrastructure with new finan-
cing solutions, and increased LNG capacity.
Oil produced in the Barents Sea must be shipped to
market by tanker. One option for storage and export is
an FPSO 3
with the capacity to store oil and transfer it
to a shuttle tanker. A fleet of “winterised” tankers would
transport the oil to terminals and refineries around the
world. A second option is a production facility with
capacity for storage and transfer to a shuttle tankers,
where winterised tankers take the oil to a transhipment
terminal on land. Conventional tankers would then distri-
bute the oil to refineries. The third option is a production
facility combined with a pipeline to land for oil storage
and transhipment.
Water depths in the Barents Sea mean that the combi-
nation of production and storage offered by an FPSO is
often the preferred solution in financial terms. In addi-
tion, great distances between fields and the coast would
impose additional costs for installing oil pipelines.
Spin-offs from the oil and gas industry in northern
Norway
Oil and gas operations on the northern NCS have had
spin-offs for other industries through exploration acti-
vity, developments and the operation of fields on stream.
A number of the north Norwegian companies which
currently deliver goods and services to the oil and gas
industry do so both locally and nationally, and some also
internationally. Over time, operators and supplier compa-
nies have established a presence in the region and repre-
sent an important part of north Norwegian industry. It
must nevertheless be admitted that developments are
concentrated on a few towns and regions – the concept
of the “three Hs” (Hammerfest, Harstad and Helgeland)
is used as an illustration, for example. North Norwegian
suppliers have improved their competitiveness over time,
but still have a big development potential.
Norway’s oil and gas industry currently faces a deman-
ding time. High costs combined with low oil prices have
called for measures to reduce expenses and enhance
efficiency. The same conditions apply globally, and have
led to lower activity. As this report shows, the supplies
industry in northern Norway also expects a decline in
turnover and employees. Examples of this have already
emerged throughout the region. Looking rather further
ahead, the signs are that turnover will pick up again.
3 Floating production, storage and offloading unit used in the oil and gas
industry.
Should Nordland VI and VII plus Troms II be opened for
oil and gas operations, it is very important that possible
seismic surveys in these areas are conducted to minimise
the impact on fishing and to limit the environmental foot-
print. That makes it important to establish a “Nordland
group shoot project” for such surveys, which ensures
that all conditions and requirements are fulfilled in a safe
and effective manner. In that way, relevant stakeholders
can achieve the same benefits and incentives as those
secured by the Barents Sea South-East group shoot pro-
ject. The area covered by new seismic data from a group
survey must be large enough to cover several production
licences.
Exploration drilling is necessary to prove oil and gas
deposits. Major efficiency gains have been achieved in
recent years by drilling wells faster and more efficiently.
Exploration drilling in Nordland VI and VII plus Troms
II is regarded as technically uncomplicated, the geology
is familiar, and the risk of incidents causing delays to
operations is small. Cost-efficient operation is impor-
tant for the industry, since the operational window will
probably be relatively short in order to minimise the risk
of potential conflicts over space with other stakeholders
in the area.
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) must inten-
sify efforts to map the resource base in Barents Sea North
– including Barents Sea North-East – and data already
acquired must be made available to the industry. Once
the results of the NPD’s mapping are available, an impact
assessment must also be initiated for Barents Sea North
and North-East.
Northern NCS in 2030
The report presents a future picture for the northern
NCS. Should this come to pass, the level of activity will
rise substantially and boost demand for goods and ser-
vices regionally and nationally. That means the northern
NCS will become more important for both Norwegian
suppliers in general and north Norwegian ones in par-
ticular. Requirements for expertise and a modern infra-
structure are also expected to become more stringent.
Infrastructure for gas transport has gradually been
expanded in connection with the development of new
fields. The gas infrastructure which will emerge in the
northern Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea is directly
related to the provision of new acreage, and will also
depend on additional gas discoveries and their size,
coordination between licences, and the financing model.
Oil developments could also be dependent on transport
solutions for associated gas. Both pipelines and LNG are
possible solutions for the Barents Sea. Future transport
requirements and market prospects will ultimately lay
the basis for the choice of solution. This report presents
four options: step-by-step development of pipeline

this region.
High level of safety in the far north
Good safety and emergency preparedness are crucial
preconditions for continued value creation on the
northern NCS. However, oil and gas operations in high
latitudes are not a new phenomenon. The petroleum
sector has pursued prudent operations in these regions
for many decades, both on the NCS and not least
internationally. Year-round production is currently being
pursued in such areas as the Canadian Arctic, Alaska
and off Sakhalin in Russia under conditions far more
challenging than on the northern NCS.
Norway’s oil and gas industry is continuously
improving. A collaboration between companies,
unions and government has identified challenges and
possible measures on the northern NCS. Tripartite
agreement exists on this work, which forms the basis
for further efforts. The report presents a number of the
collaborations currently under way.
Great attention paid to far northern environment
Requirements for safe operation and a minimum impact
on the natural environment have been fundamental
for the Norwegian oil and gas industry. Over more
than 50 years of oil and gas activity on the NCS, no
acute discharges causing substantial damage to the
environment have occurred from offshore operations,
related transport or associated land facilities. Several
decades of environmental monitoring and available
statistics from the Petroleum Safety Authority Norway
show that the trend for actual discharges is declining
and that identifiable discharges to the sea are becoming
smaller and more local. Building further on this operating
experience is important as the scope of far northern
activity grows.
The waters off Lofoten and northwards in the Barents
Sea are among the most productive in the world, and
contain a significant share of the marine resources in the
north-eastern Atlantic. But the environment in the far
north is no more sensitive to oil and gas operations than
in other parts of the NCS. The far north is characterised
by great variations in climate and other environmental
factors. While conditions in the southern part of this
region are comparable in terms of variability with the
North Sea, seasonal contrasts become greater when
moving northwards. Generally speaking, species are
adapted to the great variations found in the Barents Sea,
with life strategies which make stocks robust in relation
to natural changes in temperature, variable food supplies
and other external stresses. As a number of studies have
also noted, conditions on the northern NCS do not vary
significantly from those found in the Norwegian and
North Seas with regard to weather and wave heights.
Direct revenues from oil and gas sales in northern
Norway began when Norne came on stream in 1997.
Petroleum worth more than NOK 396 billion has been
produced since then. Oil and gas output from Norne,
Skarv and Snøhvit was worth NOK 44 billion in 2015,
down from NOK 58 billion the year before. In other
words, the industry in the region makes a substantial
contribution to Norway’s tax revenues, value creation
and jobs.
Expertise boost in the north
A fundamental precondition for continued development
of petroleum operations in northern Norway is the
availability of competent personnel. This was also noted
in KonKraft’s 2009 report, which found that oil-rela-
ted education in Norway was heavily concentrated in
the south-west and in Trondheim. The present report
records great progress with the interaction between
the petroleum industry and the technical colleges and
university sector as well as other research institutions in
northern Norway. This is because the oil and gas indus-
try, the government and R&D institutions have all, from
their various perspectives, identified and initiated good
measures in new priority areas. The result has been
new courses, improved equipment, and new institutes
and centres, highlighted by the establishment of courses
relevant to the oil and gas sector at several places in the
three northern counties.
Experience shows that the simplest approach is to
recruit north Norwegians for jobs in northern Norway.
That makes it important for the county councils there
to develop an educational provision which gives young
people who want to work in the petroleum sector the
opportunity to do so. According to the report’s future
picture, more people with an education at upper secon-
dary level will be needed along the whole value chain in
the petroleum sector. It will therefore be necessary to
maintain the level of education in relevant subjects, and
if possible to increase it somewhat. Enhanced expertise
will still be needed in north Norwegian companies which
want to qualify as suppliers to the oil and gas industry.
Good infrastructure important
Freight shipments for oil and gas operations on the
northern NCS go largely to the bases at Hammerfest and
Sandnessjøen, while passenger transport takes place to a
great extent from Hammerfest and Brønnøysund. Current
and probable developments over the next few years
will largely be covered by the existing bases. Growing
activity in Barents Sea South-East will create a need for
increased supply-base and heliport capacity further to
the east in Finnmark. It is important to note that this
activity should be close to industrial hubs and resources
on land. A substantial strengthening and improvement of
communication solutions in the far north are crucial for
safe and efficient operation by all the industries active in

The most important competitive advantage for northern
Norway’s tourist industry is its spectacular nature and
the cultural history related to human life in this setting.
All market surveys show that Norway is associated with
clean and beautiful scenery, and that northern Norway’s
uniqueness lies in its Arctic environment and animal life,
and not least such natural phenomena as the Northern
Lights, the Midnight Sun and the North Cape.
No detailed studies have been conducted in Norway on
visitor satisfaction with a region before and after petro-
leum operations have begun, but some of the country’s
biggest nature-related tourist attractions lie in its
western counties. Møre og Romsdal, Sogn og Fjordane,
Hordaland and Rogaland offer magnificent scenic expe-
riences for tourists. At the same time, this region has
several decades of experience with petroleum operations
off its shores. This demonstrates that “nature tourism”
and the petroleum industry are able to co-exist. Good
opportunities are available for constructive interaction
between the tourist industry and the oil and gas sector.
The latter is an important player in business travel and
makes extensive use of the services offered by the north
Norwegian tourist industry, which is thereby able to offer
a larger number of year-round jobs.
The recommendations made by KonKraft to the govern-
ment and to the industry itself are summarised below.
Many of the tasks and challenges identified here must be
dealt with through a collaboration between government
and industry.
2.1.
RECOMMENDATIONS
KonKraft makes the following recommendations.
∎∎ The Norwegian government must ensure stable
and predictable frame conditions for the oil and gas
industry. This helps the NCS to remain attractive and
competitive, and will permit a high level of activity,
with high employment and value creation, for a long
time to come. It is important that petroleum policy
rests on a broad foundation of political support.
∎∎ Licensing policy must remain unchanged , with
ordinary rounds every other year and annual
APA rounds.4
This provides a good framework for
meeting the industry’s need for new exploration
acreage, not least in the far north.
4 Awards in predefined areas.

Oil spill preparedness strengthened
The oil and gas industry internationally has developed
equipment and methods for oil spill response under far
more challenging conditions, particularly in terms of low
temperatures and ice, than will be experienced on the
northern NCS. Most of this region will pose no new chal-
lenges for such response compared with the NCS further
to the south. Wind and wave conditions, for example, are
more challenging in the Norwegian Sea than those expe-
rienced in the Barents Sea.
Responsibility for oil spill preparedness rests with the
companies in the areas where they operate. This duty
is primarily handled through the Norwegian Clean Seas
Association for Operating Companies (Nofo), to which
all operators on the NCS belong. Oil spill response has
been substantially expanded in line with the rising level
of activity in the far north. As chapter 11 reports, capa-
city for coastal and shoreline response has doubled over
the past seven-eight years. To strengthen near-coast oil
spill response, both Nofo and the Norwegian Coastal
Administration (NCA) have entered into agreements with
fishing-boat owners along Norway’s entire coast. The
number of vessels varies, but around 100 fishing boats
are normally affiliated to these arrangements. Nofo has
the largest number of agreements, covering about 65
vessels. Two-thirds of all the ships are based in northern
Norway.
Strengthening oil spill preparedness also reinforces
general preparedness in the far north for other incidents
– including those related to maritime traffic, including
oil shipments, already taking place along the Norwegian
coast.
Interface with other industries
The fishing and petroleum industries are important for
value creation and employment nationally and for many
regions and local communities nationwide. They are par-
ticularly significant for coastal societies. These sectors
have developed side-by-side for more than 50 years.
Both are heavily regulated, and great responsibility and
willingness has been shown by both sides in finding good
solutions which emphasise the interests of the whole
community.
Drilling, development and production by the oil and gas
industry generate few conflicts, but acquiring seismic
data poses a number of challenges. Such information is
crucial for pursuing petroleum operations in all phases
of the business. To ensure that both fishing and petro-
leum activities can develop and operate as effectively as
possible, purposeful efforts must by pursued by all sides
to strengthen the basis for co-existence and to reduce the
potential for conflict between them.

operations as the foundation of the industry’s
operations, and thereby give emphasis to utilising
the experience capital built up over more than 50
years of activity on the NCS.
∎∎ The government and the industry must maintain the
good collaboration of recent years, which has led to
a substantial expansion in educational courses and
centres of expertise in the far north. A need exists
to strengthen collaboration between academia and
the petroleum industry even further, boost interest
in science studies, and ensure that petroleum-related
research maintains a high standard.
∎∎ Providing arenas where centres of expertise and the
industry can come together is important.
∎∎ The oil and gas industry’s need for communication
services and technology must be related to
society’s general requirements, and infrastructure
development must be planned in an overall context.
Norway should exploit the strong position occupied
by its research bodies and industries with regard
to the use of broadband, fibreoptics and satellite
communication in Arctic regions.
∎∎ The petroleum sector is an important player in
developing industrial clusters, including centres of
expertise at the north Norwegian supply bases. This
work must continue.
∎∎ When developing contract structures, frame
agreements and tender packages, the operators
must take account of the fact that north Norwegian
industry consists to a great extent of small and
medium-sized companies.
∎∎ The oil and gas industry will remain the world leader
for HSE. Future efforts to identify possible HSE
challenges and measures for the northern NCS must
be based on tripartite agreement. Solid work on
which all parties are agreed has already been done
here.
∎∎ Priority will continue to be given to the development
of oil spill preparedness in the far north, with
appropriate technology and methods, as activity
moves northwards.
∎∎ Particular attention must be paid to helicopter
emergency preparedness, given the distances from
land and bases involved with operations in the north-
eastern Barents Sea.
∎∎ APA coverage in the Norwegian and Barents Seas
must be expanded in step with the need for access to
new time-critical acreage. This is necessary to ensure
increased production through existing fields and
infrastructure, and to prove new resources which can
secure field developments. Maintaining the interest
of the international oil companies in the NCS is also
important, so that they invest there in competition
with petroleum provinces in other parts of the world.
∎∎ An impact assessment pursuant to section 3 of the
Petroleum Act must be carried out for Nordland VI
and VII plus Troms II.
∎∎ Conclusions related to opening these areas can
be reached when all the conditions have been
illuminated through this impact assessment.
∎∎ Should Nordland VI and VII plus Troms II be opened
for oil and gas operations, it is very important
that possible seismic surveys in these areas are
conducted to minimise the impact on fishing and
to limit the environmental footprint. That makes
it important to establish a Nordland group shoot
project for such surveys, which ensures that all
conditions and requirements are fulfilled in a safe
and effective manner.
∎∎ The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) must
intensify efforts to map the resource base in Barents
Sea North – including Barents Sea North-East. Data
already acquired must be made available to the
industry. Once the results of the NPD’s mapping
are available, an impact assessment must also be
initiated for Barents Sea North.
∎∎ The petroleum and fishing sectors, together with the
government, must continue their efforts to ensure
that both industries can contribute to value creation
along the coast.
∎∎ The integrated management plans are intended
to provide fact-based assessments which can
serve as the basis for developing regulations and
parameters for activities in the various parts
of the NCS. KonKraft wants to help ensure that
continued development of the far north builds on a
good balance between concern for nature and the
environment and the ambition to exploit Norwegian
natural resources to create value and jobs. The
industry should be involved to a greater extent in
the preparation of the management plans, in part
by utilising the extensive factual material acquired
through preliminary investigations, environmental
monitoring and research. The Symbioses calculation
model, for example, could be an important tool in the
administrative work of assessing risk and potential
damage.
∎∎ All players in the far north must pay close attention
to safety and to minimising discharges from
KonKraft in brief
KonKraft is a collaboration arena for the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association, the Federation of Norwegian Industries,
the Norwegian Shipowners Association and the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO), with LO members
Fellesforbundet og Industri Energi. It serves as an agenda-setter for national strategies in the petroleum sector, and
works to maintain the competitiveness of the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS), so that Norway remains an attractive
area for investment by the Norwegian and international oil and gas industry – including suppliers and the maritime
sector. The council is KonKraft’s supreme body. In addition comes an executive committee and a secretariat responsible
for ongoing activities and day-to-day operations.
Council members
∎∎ Gerd Kristiansen, President of the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO)
∎∎ Karl Eirik Schjøtt-Pedersen, Director General of the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
∎∎ Stein Lier-Hansen, Director General of the Federation of Norwegian Industries
∎∎ Sturla Henriksen, CEO of the Norwegian Shipowners Association
∎∎ Jørn Eggum, President, Fellesforbundet
∎∎ Frode Alfheim, Vice President, Industri Energi
∎∎ Arne Sigve Nylund, Executive Vice President Development and production Norway, Statoil
∎∎ Tor Arnesen, Managing Director, Norske Shell
∎∎ Jan Arve Haugan, President & CEO Kværner
∎∎ Jan Skogseth, President & CEO Aibel
∎∎ Jakob Korsgaard, Managing Director, Mærsk
∎∎ Odd Strømsnes, Managing Director, Technip
Executive committee members
∎∎ Erling Kvadsheim, Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
∎∎ Torbjørn Giæver Eriksen, Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
∎∎ Olav Lie, Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO)
∎∎ Jørn Prangerød, Fellesforbundet
∎∎ Johnny Håvik, Industri Energi
KonKraft’s secretariat

Published, May 2016 by KonKraft:
Working group for the report:
∎∎ Frode Alfheim, Industri Energi (leader)
∎∎ Knut Harald Nygård, Statoil
∎∎ Inger Aase, Transocean
∎∎ Thomas K. Føre, Aker Solutions
∎∎ Kjell- Are Vassmyr, Aker Solutions
∎∎ Finn Roar Aamodt, Statoil
∎∎ Svein Ole Strømme, Kværner
∎∎ Jørgens Bratting, Kunnskapsparken Nord
∎∎ Kjell Givær, Petroarctic
∎∎ Bjørn Johansen, Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions
∎∎ Inger Hoff, Industri Energi (to 1.1.2016)
∎∎ Geir Seljeseth, Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
∎∎ Egil Dragsund, Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
∎∎ Kevin Thomassen, Norwegian Shipowners Association
∎∎ Øyvind Johannesen, Norwegian Shipowners Association
Secretariat:
∎∎ Gunnar Myrvang, Konkraft (Head of secretariat to 31.12.2015)
∎∎ Knut Weum, KonKraft (adviser to 1.8.2015)

INDUSTRI
ENERGI
KonKraft is a collaboration arena for:

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