Analytics Industry Overview:
 To Big Data and Beyond !
        Gregory Piatetsky
   www.KDnuggets.com/gps.html


             (c) KDnuggets 2011   1
My Data Path
• PhD in applying Machine Learning to databases
• Researcher at GTE Labs – started first project
  on Knowledge Discovery in Databases in 1989
• Organized first 3 KDD workshops (1989-93),
  cofounded KDD conferences and ACM SIGKDD
• Chief Scientist at analytics startup 1998-2001
• Chair, SIGKDD, 2005-2009
• Analytics/Data Mining Consultant, 2001-
                    (c) KDnuggets 2011        2
KDnuggets
• Stands for Knowledge Discovery
                           Nuggets
• 1993 - started KDnuggets News email newsletter (~
  12,000 email subscribers now)
• early website in 1994, www.KDnuggets.com in 1997
    – 2011 best year, 45-50,000 unique visitors/month
•      twitter.com/kdnuggets ~3,000 followers
•     facebook.com/kdnuggets page
•      group: KDnuggets Analytics & Data Mining

• Recently featured on CNN

                             (c) KDnuggets 2011         3
KDnuggets mission
Cover Analytics and Data Mining field :
• News, Jobs, Software, Data (most popular)
• Also Academic positions, CFP, Companies,
  Consulting, Courses, Meetings, Polls,
  Publications, Solutions, Webcasts

• Subscribe to bi-weekly KDnuggets News at
  www.kdnuggets.com/subscribe.html
                    (c) KDnuggets 2011        4
Analyzing Data or …
•   Statistics
•   Data mining                           Core:
•   Knowledge Discovery in Data           Finding
•   KDD                                   Useful
•   Analytics                             Patterns
•   Data Science                          in Data
•   …?

                     (c) KDnuggets 2011              5
History
• Statistics: 1800 -
• Data dredging, data “fishing” : 1960s
• Data Mining: 1980 –
• Database Mining ~ 1985 (was HNC trademark, not used)
• Knowledge Discovery in Data: 1989 –
   – KDD workshop in 1989
• Analytics : 2006 –
   – Google Analytics, “Competing on Analytics” book
• Data Science: 2010 –

                         (c) KDnuggets 2011              6
Pre-history




Statistics is the biggest term in 20th century, but
data mining           and analytics        appears in late 1990s
From Google Ngram viewer – English language books
Note: Our analysis uses only English language data.
Other languages, especially Chinese , need to be considered for full picture
                                   (c) KDnuggets 2011                          7
Recent History:
Analytics, Data Mining, Knowledge Discovery




  Analytics has been used since 1800, but started to rise in 2005
  Data Mining jumps around 1996 (soon after first KDD conference) but declines after
  2003 (TIA controversy, associated with gov. invasion of privacy).
  Knowledge Discovery appears in 1989, jumps in 1996, and plateaus after 2000
                              (c) KDnuggets 2011                              8
Google N-gram Results case sensitive




 Different capitalizations changes counts, but using lowercase is probably
 appropriate to measure general popularity.

                               (c) KDnuggets 2011                            9
Earliest use of “data mining” 1962?
       After eliminating many “following data. Mining cost is ” examples
       which refer to Mining of minerals,
       and books from “1958” that have a CD attached (errors in book year)

       The earliest “data mining” reference I found is




  Source: Google Books

                                (c) KDnuggets 2011                           10
Google Trends:
After 2006, Data Mining < Analytics




              (c) KDnuggets 2011      11
Google Trends:
               Analytics observations




                                Competing on Analytics
Google Analytics introduced,    book, Apr 2007           December vacation drop
Dec 2005                       (c) KDnuggets 2011
Half of “Analytics” searches are for
         “Google Analytics”




              (c) KDnuggets 2011       13
Excluding Google Analytics




          (c) KDnuggets 2011   14
Google Insights: searches for
data mining, analytics -google
 are most popular in India, US




            (c) KDnuggets 2011   15
Data Mining >> Predictive Analytics




              (c) KDnuggets 2011   16
Business, Predictive, Text Analytics




               (c) KDnuggets 2011   17
Analytics > Data Mining > Data Science




                (c) KDnuggets 2011   18
Data Science, Big Data




        (c) KDnuggets 2011   19
Analytics Today

KDnuggets Polls Findings
  www.KDnuggets.com/polls/




          (c) KDnuggets 2011   20
Where did you apply analytics/data mining?
                               0.0%   5.0%   10.0%   15.0%   20.0%   25.0%   30.0%

    CRM/ consumer analytics
                        Banking
               Health care/ HR
               Fraud Detection
Direct Marketing/ Fundraising
                        Finance
               Telecom / Cable
                        Science
                      Insurance
                    Advertising
                     Education
                                                                                       avg 2.4
             Web usage mining
                 Credit Scoring
                          Retail
                                                                                     industries
              Medical/ Pharma
                Manufacturing
                  e-Commerce
               Social Networks
 Search / Web content mining
          Government/Military
             Biotech/Genomics
           Investment / Stocks
         Entertainment/ Music
      Security / Anti-terrorism
            Travel / Hospitality
  Social Policy/Survey analysis
       Junk email / Anti-spam
                           Other




   www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2010/analytics-data-mining-industries-applications.html
                                                        (c) KDnuggets 2011                        21
Data Types Analyzed/Mined




www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/data-types-analyzed-mined.html
                            (c) KDnuggets 2011                22
Data Types w. Most Growth in 2011
• location/geo/mobile data

• music / audio

• time series

• Genomics, according to John Mattison

                   (c) KDnuggets 2011    23
Largest Dataset Analyzed?
                                                    2011 median dataset size
                                                    ~10-20 GB,
                                                    vs 8-10 GB in 2010.

                                                    Increase in
                                                    10 GB to 1 PB range




www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/largest-dataset-analyzed-data-mined.html
                             (c) KDnuggets 2011                           24
Largest Dataset Analyzed by Region




              (c) KDnuggets 2011   25
Which methods/algorithms did you
  use for data analysis in 2011
                                       % analysts who used it
                                  0%     10%   20%      30%         40%   50%   60%   70%

                Decision Trees
                    Regression
                    Clustering
                     Statistics
                 Visualization
 Time series/Sequence analysis
         Support Vector (SVM)
             Association rules
           Ensemble methods
                  Text Mining
                  Neural Nets
                     Boosting
                     Bayesian
                      Bagging
               Factor Analysis
 Anomaly/Deviation detection
       Social Network Analysis
              Survival Analysis
           Genetic algorithms
               Uplift modeling



www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/algorithms-analytics-data-mining.html
                                               (c) KDnuggets 2011                           26
Algorithms with highest
              Industry Affinity




www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/algorithms-analytics-data-mining.html
                            (c) KDnuggets 2011                       27
“Academic” algorithms
           lowest Industry affinity




www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/algorithms-analytics-data-mining.html
                            (c) KDnuggets 2011                       28
Cloud Analytics is not common (yet)




 www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/algorithms-analytics-data-mining.html
                             (c) KDnuggets 2011                       29
JOBS AND SKILLS




   (c) KDnuggets 2011   30
Shortage of Skills
• McKinsey: shortage by 2018 in the US of
  – 140-190,000 people with deep analytical skills

  – 1.5 M managers/analysts with the know-how to
    use the analysis of big data to make effective
    decisions.

  Source:
    www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/big_data/

                      (c) KDnuggets 2011             31
Job data: Data Scientist




         (c) KDnuggets 2011   32
Jobs: Data Mining >> Data Scientist




              (c) KDnuggets 2011   33
“Ground” Analytics (LinkedIn Skills)

                                    ~ 75,000 with Data Mining skill

                                    ~ 7,000 with Predictive Modeling



                                    Also
                                    ~ 20,000 with Predictive Analytics
                                    (not related with Predictive
                                    Modeling ??




               (c) KDnuggets 2011                                     34
Cloud (Big Data) Analytics Skills




             (c) KDnuggets 2011     35
Analytics LinkedIn Skills




 Predictive Analytics      Machine Learning



Text
Mining                                        MapReduce




                        (c) KDnuggets 2011                36
Data Tsunami
• In 2010 enterprises
  stored 7 exabytes
  =7,000,000,000 GB
of new data (McKinsey)
• 90 percent of the
  world's data has been
                                        Image with apologies to KDD-2011
  generated in the past
  two years (IBM)

                   (c) KDnuggets 2011                                      37
Big Data Aspects?
• Volume
  – Terabytes to Petabytes …
• Velocity
  – online streaming
• Variety
  – numbers, text, links, images, audio, video, …




                       (c) KDnuggets 2011           38
Volume + Velocity => No consistency
• CAP Theorem (Eric Brewer, 2000)
  For highly scalable distributed systems, you can only
    have two of following:
  – 1) consistency,
  – 2) high availability, and
  – 3) (network) partition tolerance (network failure tolerance)
   http://www.julianbrowne.com/article/viewer/brewers-cap-
     theorem

  Implication: Big data solutions must stop worrying
    about consistency if they want high availability

                           (c) KDnuggets 2011                      39
Big Data
• 2nd Industrial Revolution

• Do old activities better

• Create new activities/businesses




                     (c) KDnuggets 2011   40
Application areas
• Doing old things better
  – Churn prediction
  – Direct marketing/Customer modeling
  – Recommendations
  – Fraud detection
  – Security/Intelligence
  –…
• Competition will level companies

                    (c) KDnuggets 2011   41
Limit to Predicting Customer Behavior?
• There is fundamental randomness in human
  behavior and once we find 1-level
  effects, more data or better algorithms will
  give diminishing returns in most cases
• Example: Netflix Prize: the most advanced
  algorithms were only a few percentages better
  than basic algorithms


                    (c) KDnuggets 2011        42
Direct Marketing:
                                Random and Model-sorted Lists
                                 100
     CPH: Cumulative Pct Hits



                                  90
                                  80
                                  70
                                  60                                                       Random
                                  50                                                       Model
                                  40
                                  30
                                  20
                                  10
                                   0
                                       5

                                           15

                                                25

                                                     35

                                                          45

                                                               55

                                                                    65

                                                                         75

                                                                              85

                                                                                   95
                                                                                        Pct list
5% of random list have 5% of hits
5% of model-score ranked list have 21% of hits.
Lift(5%) = 21%/5% = 4.2
Most lift curves are surprising similar
Study of lift curves in banking,
   telecom                                                      Actual lift(T)    Est. lift(T)
                                                 14
Best lift curves are similar                     12
Special point T=Target                           10
   percentage                                     8




                                          Lift
                                                  6

Lift(T) ~          sqrt (1/T)                     4
                                                  2
                                                  0
                                                      0     5       10           15         20   25
G. Piatetsky-Shapiro, B. Masand,
Estimating Campaign Benefits and                                      100*T%
    Modeling Lift, in Proceedings of
    KDD-99 Conference, ACM
    Press, 1999.




                                       (c) KDnuggets 2011                                        44
Big Data Enables New Things !
– Google – first big success of big data
– Social networks (facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, …)
  success depends on network size, i.e. big data

– Location analytics
– Health-care
   • Personalized medicine
– Semantics and AI ?
   • Imagine IBM Watson, Siri in 2020 ?

                       (c) KDnuggets 2011            45
Big Data Growth By Industry




  Source: http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/big_data/
                      (c) KDnuggets 2011                       46
Research and Industry Disconnect?
• Uplift modeling – needs more research
• Association rules need less papers
• Data Mining with Privacy research – industry
  use?

• KDD conference aims to bring researchers and
  industry people together


                    (c) KDnuggets 2011           47
Hot Growth Areas
• Social Analytics
  – Klout
  – many twitter micro-analytics
    (twitalyzer, TweetEffect, TweetStats)


• Mobile Analytics
  – Privacy and data tracks (KDD Lab, Pisa)



                       (c) KDnuggets 2011     48
Big Data Bubble?

Big Data




           Gartner Hype Cycle

                                                 49
                    Copyright © 2011 KDnuggets

Analytics and Data Mining Industry Overview

  • 1.
    Analytics Industry Overview: To Big Data and Beyond ! Gregory Piatetsky www.KDnuggets.com/gps.html (c) KDnuggets 2011 1
  • 2.
    My Data Path •PhD in applying Machine Learning to databases • Researcher at GTE Labs – started first project on Knowledge Discovery in Databases in 1989 • Organized first 3 KDD workshops (1989-93), cofounded KDD conferences and ACM SIGKDD • Chief Scientist at analytics startup 1998-2001 • Chair, SIGKDD, 2005-2009 • Analytics/Data Mining Consultant, 2001- (c) KDnuggets 2011 2
  • 3.
    KDnuggets • Stands forKnowledge Discovery Nuggets • 1993 - started KDnuggets News email newsletter (~ 12,000 email subscribers now) • early website in 1994, www.KDnuggets.com in 1997 – 2011 best year, 45-50,000 unique visitors/month • twitter.com/kdnuggets ~3,000 followers • facebook.com/kdnuggets page • group: KDnuggets Analytics & Data Mining • Recently featured on CNN (c) KDnuggets 2011 3
  • 4.
    KDnuggets mission Cover Analyticsand Data Mining field : • News, Jobs, Software, Data (most popular) • Also Academic positions, CFP, Companies, Consulting, Courses, Meetings, Polls, Publications, Solutions, Webcasts • Subscribe to bi-weekly KDnuggets News at www.kdnuggets.com/subscribe.html (c) KDnuggets 2011 4
  • 5.
    Analyzing Data or… • Statistics • Data mining Core: • Knowledge Discovery in Data Finding • KDD Useful • Analytics Patterns • Data Science in Data • …? (c) KDnuggets 2011 5
  • 6.
    History • Statistics: 1800- • Data dredging, data “fishing” : 1960s • Data Mining: 1980 – • Database Mining ~ 1985 (was HNC trademark, not used) • Knowledge Discovery in Data: 1989 – – KDD workshop in 1989 • Analytics : 2006 – – Google Analytics, “Competing on Analytics” book • Data Science: 2010 – (c) KDnuggets 2011 6
  • 7.
    Pre-history Statistics is thebiggest term in 20th century, but data mining and analytics appears in late 1990s From Google Ngram viewer – English language books Note: Our analysis uses only English language data. Other languages, especially Chinese , need to be considered for full picture (c) KDnuggets 2011 7
  • 8.
    Recent History: Analytics, DataMining, Knowledge Discovery Analytics has been used since 1800, but started to rise in 2005 Data Mining jumps around 1996 (soon after first KDD conference) but declines after 2003 (TIA controversy, associated with gov. invasion of privacy). Knowledge Discovery appears in 1989, jumps in 1996, and plateaus after 2000 (c) KDnuggets 2011 8
  • 9.
    Google N-gram Resultscase sensitive Different capitalizations changes counts, but using lowercase is probably appropriate to measure general popularity. (c) KDnuggets 2011 9
  • 10.
    Earliest use of“data mining” 1962? After eliminating many “following data. Mining cost is ” examples which refer to Mining of minerals, and books from “1958” that have a CD attached (errors in book year) The earliest “data mining” reference I found is Source: Google Books (c) KDnuggets 2011 10
  • 11.
    Google Trends: After 2006,Data Mining < Analytics (c) KDnuggets 2011 11
  • 12.
    Google Trends: Analytics observations Competing on Analytics Google Analytics introduced, book, Apr 2007 December vacation drop Dec 2005 (c) KDnuggets 2011
  • 13.
    Half of “Analytics”searches are for “Google Analytics” (c) KDnuggets 2011 13
  • 14.
    Excluding Google Analytics (c) KDnuggets 2011 14
  • 15.
    Google Insights: searchesfor data mining, analytics -google are most popular in India, US (c) KDnuggets 2011 15
  • 16.
    Data Mining >>Predictive Analytics (c) KDnuggets 2011 16
  • 17.
    Business, Predictive, TextAnalytics (c) KDnuggets 2011 17
  • 18.
    Analytics > DataMining > Data Science (c) KDnuggets 2011 18
  • 19.
    Data Science, BigData (c) KDnuggets 2011 19
  • 20.
    Analytics Today KDnuggets PollsFindings www.KDnuggets.com/polls/ (c) KDnuggets 2011 20
  • 21.
    Where did youapply analytics/data mining? 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% CRM/ consumer analytics Banking Health care/ HR Fraud Detection Direct Marketing/ Fundraising Finance Telecom / Cable Science Insurance Advertising Education avg 2.4 Web usage mining Credit Scoring Retail industries Medical/ Pharma Manufacturing e-Commerce Social Networks Search / Web content mining Government/Military Biotech/Genomics Investment / Stocks Entertainment/ Music Security / Anti-terrorism Travel / Hospitality Social Policy/Survey analysis Junk email / Anti-spam Other www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2010/analytics-data-mining-industries-applications.html (c) KDnuggets 2011 21
  • 22.
  • 23.
    Data Types w.Most Growth in 2011 • location/geo/mobile data • music / audio • time series • Genomics, according to John Mattison (c) KDnuggets 2011 23
  • 24.
    Largest Dataset Analyzed? 2011 median dataset size ~10-20 GB, vs 8-10 GB in 2010. Increase in 10 GB to 1 PB range www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/largest-dataset-analyzed-data-mined.html (c) KDnuggets 2011 24
  • 25.
    Largest Dataset Analyzedby Region (c) KDnuggets 2011 25
  • 26.
    Which methods/algorithms didyou use for data analysis in 2011 % analysts who used it 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Decision Trees Regression Clustering Statistics Visualization Time series/Sequence analysis Support Vector (SVM) Association rules Ensemble methods Text Mining Neural Nets Boosting Bayesian Bagging Factor Analysis Anomaly/Deviation detection Social Network Analysis Survival Analysis Genetic algorithms Uplift modeling www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/algorithms-analytics-data-mining.html (c) KDnuggets 2011 26
  • 27.
    Algorithms with highest Industry Affinity www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/algorithms-analytics-data-mining.html (c) KDnuggets 2011 27
  • 28.
    “Academic” algorithms lowest Industry affinity www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/algorithms-analytics-data-mining.html (c) KDnuggets 2011 28
  • 29.
    Cloud Analytics isnot common (yet) www.KDnuggets.com/polls/2011/algorithms-analytics-data-mining.html (c) KDnuggets 2011 29
  • 30.
    JOBS AND SKILLS (c) KDnuggets 2011 30
  • 31.
    Shortage of Skills •McKinsey: shortage by 2018 in the US of – 140-190,000 people with deep analytical skills – 1.5 M managers/analysts with the know-how to use the analysis of big data to make effective decisions. Source: www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/big_data/ (c) KDnuggets 2011 31
  • 32.
    Job data: DataScientist (c) KDnuggets 2011 32
  • 33.
    Jobs: Data Mining>> Data Scientist (c) KDnuggets 2011 33
  • 34.
    “Ground” Analytics (LinkedInSkills) ~ 75,000 with Data Mining skill ~ 7,000 with Predictive Modeling Also ~ 20,000 with Predictive Analytics (not related with Predictive Modeling ?? (c) KDnuggets 2011 34
  • 35.
    Cloud (Big Data)Analytics Skills (c) KDnuggets 2011 35
  • 36.
    Analytics LinkedIn Skills Predictive Analytics Machine Learning Text Mining MapReduce (c) KDnuggets 2011 36
  • 37.
    Data Tsunami • In2010 enterprises stored 7 exabytes =7,000,000,000 GB of new data (McKinsey) • 90 percent of the world's data has been Image with apologies to KDD-2011 generated in the past two years (IBM) (c) KDnuggets 2011 37
  • 38.
    Big Data Aspects? •Volume – Terabytes to Petabytes … • Velocity – online streaming • Variety – numbers, text, links, images, audio, video, … (c) KDnuggets 2011 38
  • 39.
    Volume + Velocity=> No consistency • CAP Theorem (Eric Brewer, 2000) For highly scalable distributed systems, you can only have two of following: – 1) consistency, – 2) high availability, and – 3) (network) partition tolerance (network failure tolerance) http://www.julianbrowne.com/article/viewer/brewers-cap- theorem Implication: Big data solutions must stop worrying about consistency if they want high availability (c) KDnuggets 2011 39
  • 40.
    Big Data • 2ndIndustrial Revolution • Do old activities better • Create new activities/businesses (c) KDnuggets 2011 40
  • 41.
    Application areas • Doingold things better – Churn prediction – Direct marketing/Customer modeling – Recommendations – Fraud detection – Security/Intelligence –… • Competition will level companies (c) KDnuggets 2011 41
  • 42.
    Limit to PredictingCustomer Behavior? • There is fundamental randomness in human behavior and once we find 1-level effects, more data or better algorithms will give diminishing returns in most cases • Example: Netflix Prize: the most advanced algorithms were only a few percentages better than basic algorithms (c) KDnuggets 2011 42
  • 43.
    Direct Marketing: Random and Model-sorted Lists 100 CPH: Cumulative Pct Hits 90 80 70 60 Random 50 Model 40 30 20 10 0 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 Pct list 5% of random list have 5% of hits 5% of model-score ranked list have 21% of hits. Lift(5%) = 21%/5% = 4.2
  • 44.
    Most lift curvesare surprising similar Study of lift curves in banking, telecom Actual lift(T) Est. lift(T) 14 Best lift curves are similar 12 Special point T=Target 10 percentage 8 Lift 6 Lift(T) ~ sqrt (1/T) 4 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 G. Piatetsky-Shapiro, B. Masand, Estimating Campaign Benefits and 100*T% Modeling Lift, in Proceedings of KDD-99 Conference, ACM Press, 1999. (c) KDnuggets 2011 44
  • 45.
    Big Data EnablesNew Things ! – Google – first big success of big data – Social networks (facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, …) success depends on network size, i.e. big data – Location analytics – Health-care • Personalized medicine – Semantics and AI ? • Imagine IBM Watson, Siri in 2020 ? (c) KDnuggets 2011 45
  • 46.
    Big Data GrowthBy Industry Source: http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/big_data/ (c) KDnuggets 2011 46
  • 47.
    Research and IndustryDisconnect? • Uplift modeling – needs more research • Association rules need less papers • Data Mining with Privacy research – industry use? • KDD conference aims to bring researchers and industry people together (c) KDnuggets 2011 47
  • 48.
    Hot Growth Areas •Social Analytics – Klout – many twitter micro-analytics (twitalyzer, TweetEffect, TweetStats) • Mobile Analytics – Privacy and data tracks (KDD Lab, Pisa) (c) KDnuggets 2011 48
  • 49.
    Big Data Bubble? BigData Gartner Hype Cycle 49 Copyright © 2011 KDnuggets

Editor's Notes

  • #39 Boris Evelson, Forrester also adds 4th V – Variability (meaning not constant)