Better preparedness through early identification and targeting of the most exposed communities

1. COVID-19 Vulnerability Hot Spots:
Better preparedness through early identification and targeting
of the most exposed communities
John Ulimwengu, Léa Magne Domgho, Julie Collins
John Ulimwengu, PhD
Senior Research Fellow (IFPRI)
ReSAKSS Africawide Coordinator
West Africa Regional Learning Event
February 11, 2021
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2. MOTIVATION
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• Effects of crises are not geographically uniform
• Both the spread of COVID-19 and the ability to
respond to its effects vary between and within
countries
• The severity of impacts on people’s livelihoods and
food security depends in part on existing patterns of
vulnerability

3. OBJECTIVE
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o Identify areas within countries and regions that show
the highest levels of vulnerability to negative impacts
of COVID
o Describe the status of micronutrient intake and
analyze the impact of COVID-19 related food price
changes on consumer demand for micronutrients.

4. METHODOLOGY (1): VULNERABILITY MAPPING
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Vulnerability:
• Propensity to be exposed to spread of COVID 19;
• Limited capacity to control the pandemic and care for patients;
• Households’ exposure to negative food security impacts
1) Consider various factors shaping vulnerability
 Food security and nutrition status
 Access to health services
 Overcrowding
2) Build composite indicator to create a typology of vulnerability

5. METHODOLOGY (2): MICRONUTRIENT ADEQUACY
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1) Estimate the difference between micronutrient
intake and their recommended levels
2) Estimate micronutrient price elasticities of demand
3) Use COVID-19-era price data and elasticities to
estimate the impacts of price changes on demand
for micronutrients

6. 6
Food expenditure
Harmonized
Framework
Prevalence of stunting

7. 7
Assistance by health
professionals
Distance to health
facilities

8. 8

9. 9
Overall vulnerability index: West Africa

10. CHANGES IN CEREAL PRICES BETWEEN APRIL AND
SEPTEMBER 2019 AND 2020, NIGERIA (%)
10
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Price
change
(%)
Rural
2019 2020
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Price
change
(%)
Urban
2019 2020

11. CALORIE AND MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES, Nigeria
 The average micronutrient intake is far below
recommended benchmarks for calcium and
folate.
 Nutrient adequacy for rural households is
more than 80% of the recommended intake
for vitamins A, B12, calories, proteins, iron,
and zinc.
 Vitamin A adequacy for urban families is
much higher, with levels close to 96.7%.
 Rural families perform better than urban
households for most nutrients, except for
vitamin B12, vitamin A, and folate.
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Total consumption (per day, AME) Consumption adequacy (%)
Urban Rural
Recommended
intake
Urban Rural
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Kilocalories (kcal) 2634.9 3237.0 2750 80.1 86.9
Proteins (g.) 69.5 81.7 50 91.3 94.1
Calcium (mg.) 510.2 541.0 1000 48.5 50.6
Iron (mg.) 22.1 32.6 27.4 70.1 82.2
Zinc (mg.) 11.9 16.8 14 71.9 81.7
Folate (mcg.) 19.0 5.7 400 4.6 1.4
Vitamin B12 (mcg.) 8.3 6.2 2.4 93.0 80.0
Vitamin A (mcg.) 1660.8 1513.1 600 96.7 96.3

12. IMPACT OF CHANGES IN PRICES OF CEREALS IN THE SECOND
QUARTER OF 2020 ON FOOD NUTRIENT DEMAND, NIGERIA
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 Increases in prices of cereals are expected to significantly decrease demand for
key micronutrients as well as calories.
 Especially large decreases in demand are expected in rural areas.

13. CONCLUSIONS
• Responses to COVID-19 need to prioritize most severely affected
areas
• Areas with high levels of chronic vulnerability may be hardest hit
• In West Africa, northern Mali, northern Nigeria, southern Niger
and Burkina Faso are particularly vulnerable
• Food price changes during the lockdown period could significantly
decrease consumption of key nutrients
• Better planning of restrictions to minimize market disruption could
reduce effects on prices and consumption
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14.  Compute three types of adequacy measures corresponding to
nutrient production, markets and consumption.
 Explore potential to bridge nutrient gaps through domestic market
linkages and crossborder trade.
Identify opportunities to facilitate movement of nutrients from
surplus to deficit areas at local and regional levels
 Align countries’ NAIP targets to nutrient gaps.
 Develop a nutrition smart trade matrix for the region.
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
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15. THANK YOU
AKADEMIYA2063 – Kicukiro / Niboye KK 341 St 22 I P.O. Box 1855 Kigali-Rwanda 15