- The document analyzes how COVID-19 containment measures disrupted millet markets in Senegal by restricting movement. It tracks millet prices in major production and consumption areas from March to June 2020. - Containment measures led to a general upward trend in millet prices as supply was reduced. Prices increased more sharply in June when measures were lifted. Deficit areas saw sustained higher prices throughout. - The author recommends the government improve food distribution programs to mitigate impacts on vulnerable households, and better plan restrictions to minimize market disruptions and ensure staple food flows between surplus and deficit regions.

1. Food Staple Market Dynamics
Tracking local millet prices in Senegal during the pandemic
Sunday Odjo
Deputy Director, Knowledge Systems
AKADEMIYA2063
Cotonou - August 27, 2020

2. PRESENTATION STRUCTURE
• Introduction
• Millet deficit and surplus areas in Senegal
• Typology and distribution and local food markets
• Interconnectedness of millet markets
• COVID-19-related market disruptions and millet price behavior
• Conclusions and recommendations

3. INTRODUCTION
• Mars 2020: COVID 19 apparition in Senegal and West Africa
• Control measures to curb the spread of the pandemic : restrictions
of the movement of people, Market bans, border crossing
restrictions, curfews, etc.
• Market disruptions
• A case study of Millet market in Senegal

4. Major Millet Production and Consumption Areas
• Most of millet supply is locally produced
• Major production regions are Fatick, Kaffrine et Kaolack. Almost
60% of millet harvest.
• Major consumption regions are Dakar (16%), Diourbel (14%), Thiès
(13%) et Kaolack (10%).

5. DISTRIBUTION OF MILLET SURPLUS AND DEFICIT AREAS IN SENEGAL

6. GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL FOOD MARKETS IN SENEGAL

7. INTERCONNECTEDNESS OF LOCAL FOOD MARKETS IN SENEGAL
A MILLET PRICE CORRELATION ANALYSIS

8. NOT ALL MILLET MARKETS ARE WELL CONNECTED, BUT MOST OF THEM ARE.
0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
2.9%
9.4%
25.2%
29.2%
24.0%
6.4%
2.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100
Percentageofmarketpairs
Range of price correlation values (%)
38% of millet market pairs are poorly connected
62% of millet
market pairs are
well connected

9. A GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN THE PRICE OF MILLET IN SURPLUS AREA MARKETS
Millet prices increased moderately in April and May but started to increase more
sharply with the lifting of confinement measures in June

10. MILLET PRICES HAVE REMAINED HIGHER THAN PREDICTED LEVELS OVER THE
ENTIRE CONFINEMENT PERIOD IN DEFICIT AREA MARKETS.
Better networked markets have experienced moderate to negligible price increases, even
during the confinement period

11. RAPID INCREASE IN THE SHARE OF MARKETS WITH HIGHER-THAN-PREDICTED PRICES

12. SURGING PRICE SPIKES AMONG RURAL MARKETS
Most millet markets (67%) showed modest
price deviations (-5 to 5%) in March
High price deviations (>15%) spread
to almost half (46%) of millet markets
in June

13. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
 COVID-19 pandemic has justified some governments measures
to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting the
movement of goods and impacting on the cost of food
consumed by vulnerable segments of the population.
 Confinement and other containment measures have led to a
general upward trend in prices, an erosion of purchasing power
and pressure to adjust food staples demand and consumption.

14. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)
 Government food distribution program is a good initiative that
could be improved to mitigate the likely impact on these
households.
 In particular:
 Better plan confinements and other restrictions so as to minimize market disruptions
and ensure continuity of flows of food staples between surplus and deficit areas.
 Better targeting and early identification and isolation of affected areas to avoid large
scale disruptions.

15. Thank
You