Presented by Pratap Birthal at the ISPC Science Forum 2016, Addis Ababa, 12-14 April 2016

1. Pratap Birthal
Institute of Development Studies,
Jaipur, India
Agricultural research for
prosperity in South Asia:
Rethinking pathways
For the Asia breakout session

2. Importance of agriculture
% share of
agriculture
Povert
y
(US$1.
9) %
Under-
nourish
ed
populati
on (%)
Ag GDP
growth
2005-
2014
(%)
GDP Labou
r
B’ desh 16 48 44 17 4.5
India 18 50 21 15 3.7
Nepal 34 67 15 13 3.3
Pak 25 44 8 22 2.6
S Lanka 8 30 2 25 4.5
Enhancing
agricultural
growth
Improving
labor-
absorption
capacity of
agriculture
Reducing
poverty
Improving
nutrition
security

3. Dominance of Smallholders
0
1
2
3
4
0.8 0.8
0.9
1.23
3.11
Holding size(ha) Tiny size of holdings
Majority are < 1 ha
Bangladesh 87%
India 67%
Nepal 90%
Pakistan
36%
Major objective
Food self-sufficiency
Farmer income

4. What are the concerns?
 Are these such tiny pieces of land adequate to provide a
decent livelihood, and how far?
 Should some of smallholders exit agriculture?
 Are opportunities for them in non-farm sector?
 Or Should they continue in agriculture?
 If they remain in agriculture, what could be the possible
pathways to enhance farm incomes?
 Technology
 Diversification
 Prices and incentives
 Area expansion

5. Rethinking sources of growth for
prosperity
Sources of growth
16.5
8.7
21.2
51.5
32.3
39.4
5.2
24.3
7.2
26.3 33.3 31.2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980s 1990s 2000s
Area Yield
% Share of crops in
growth
1980s 1990s 2000s
33.9 44.6
60.0
30.7
43
6.9
Horticulture Cereals
Pulses Oilseeds

6. ??Area expansion and price
increases
Area expansion
 Limited scope; land, water and energy are limited and
have reached their extensive margin of utilization;
 Intensification
Price increases : (Price support, input subsidies)
A short-term measure (volatility)
 Inflation, dampen demand, and slow down growth
 Degrade natural resources; distort cropping pattern
 Inter-personal and inter-regional disparities

7. Technology and Extension
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Agricultural research
spending as % of AgGDP
Bangladesh India
Nepal Pakistan
Sri Lanka
 Bridge yield gap:
 Credit, Inputs, Information, Skills
 Increase R&D spending
 Revisit research agenda consumer
preferences, climate change;
Breeding for stress tolerant, bio-
fortification, natural resource
management;
 Regulatory framework
 Extension system
In India 40 % households have
access to information. Government
extension to 7%
Extension for livestock is poor
Returns to information are high
ICT-3/4 persons has mobile

8. DIVERSIFICATION TOWARDS HIGH VALUE CROPS
AND LIVESTOCK
Opportunity:
 Generate higher and continuous returns; labour-intensive
 Growing demand for high-value commodities; expected to grow faster
with rise in per capita incomes and urban populations, and reduction in
poverty
 Emergence of organized retail chains, linking farmers to markets; FDI
 Smallholders have sufficient labour of their own, and diversification is a
perfect opportunity for them to utilize their labour, and enhance income
Constrains:
 Small landholding and household food security.
 High-value agriculture is capital-, input and information-intensive,
 Higher production and market risks, farmers are risk averse.
 Small marketable surplus, higher marketing costs

9. Diversification: evidence and pathway
Smallholders are more efficient; allocate larger area to
high-value crops; larger share in livestock.
Diversification reduces poverty (3-7%), improves food
and nutrition security
Driver???
Access to credit, insurance, inputs and technologies
Investment in public infrastructure that induces private
investment in processing, cold storage, refrigerated transport,
etc.)
Policies and institutions that improve farmers’ linkages with
markets, and reduce marketing and transaction costs

10. Volatile and Decelerating Cereal Yield
Growth
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
India Bangladesh
Nepal Pakistan
•Waning effect of
Green Revolution
• Second Generation
problems: land and
water degradation
Increased
frequency of extreme
climatic events:
droughts, heat waves
and floods

11. change
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No irrigation 50%
irrigation
90%
irrigation
predicted rice yield loss
(%) at same level of
drought intensity
1969 1974 1979 1984
1989 1994 1999 2004
Farm level : Crop and varietal
adjustment-Crop management
practices - changes in inputs, timings,
tillage, Intercropping and mixed
cropping, Irrigation practices,
Community level: Social networks,
information dissemination,
community projects,
Technological: Micro-irrigation,
conservation agriculture, in-situ, ex-
situ, water harvesting
Policy: Agro and weather advisory –
Information access; Convergence of
policies and program