Presented by Maureen Arguedas at the ISPC Science Forum 2016, Addis Ababa, 12-14 April 2016

1. Maureen Arguedas
Prepare by: B.M. Campbell (CIAT), M.Arguedas (CATIE), P.K. Aggarwal (CIMMYT), K. Deering (CARE), J. Gonsalves (IIRR), A.M. Loboguerrero (CIAT), S. Nielsen
(Univ Copenhagen), S. Partey (ICRISAT), M. Radeny (ILRI), L. Sebastian (IRRI), P. Thornton (ILRI), R. Zougmoré (ICRISAT)
Climate change and poverty: Regional
perspectives
For the climate change breakout session

2. Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
Methodology
• Evidence of the relationship climate change-
poverty
• Structured literature review was undertaken
• 112 papers were reviewed

3. Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
General Results
• Climate change (CC) and poverty is very linked but there is
a limited evidence
• Impacts of CC in terms of
– Production and productivity
– Climate-crop relationship
– Income effects (in a few cases)
• Often the papers focuses in resilience, adaptability and
vulnerability components
– Vulnerability= f (Exposure, Sensitivy and Adaptive
Capacity)

4. Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
General Results
• Most studies focus on extreme events related
to temperature and rainfall
• Less attention to: flooding, sea-level rise,
storm, salt water intrusion, coastal erosion,
cyclones and glacial melt

5. Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
Poverty and climate change relationship
• Generalisations are difficult to make due to
the complexity of the relationship and the
locally-specific impacts
• CC is often not the main driver of vulnerability
or change in poverty but in general may
increase poverty (or keep people in poverty)

6. Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.orgPovertyandclimatechange
Production and food
security
Income diversifications
and migrations
Income and prices
Consumption
Nutrition
Late onset of rains reduce options for planting dates (Andes)
Diversification increased as a result of reduction in rainfalls and
some households or members migrate (Senegal)
10% increase in temperature caused a 6% decrease in rural income
and 10% increased in cropland value (Brazil)
Consumption increased in some cases and decline in others,
depending on the nature of the shocks (México)
Diversification of livestock species was associated with shorter
periods of food deficit, better dietary intake and lower magnitude
of household food insecurity (East Africa)

7. Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
Adaptation options
• Adaptation options will be dependent on agro-
ecological zone, farming systems and resource
endowment
• Actions to promote adaptation can sometimes
lead to maladaptation and inequity
• Building adaptive capacity – social and human
capacity – is a no-regret strategy

8. Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
Gaps
• CC and poverty linkages are under-researched
• Gender and social differentiation are poorly covered
• Few studies assess diversification strategies
• Little consideration of how differential vulnerability and
/or resilience mediates the impact on poverty
• Little attention to post production and social issues

9. Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
What research is needed?
• CC and poverty (e.g. income, prices,
diversification)
• CC and social differentation
• CC and post-production
• CC-adaptive capacity, mal-adaptation
• CC and transformation (e.g. migration)
?

10. Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
Breakout groups
1. Is the published literature really so poor, in terms of our understanding of the
climate change-poverty relationship in different places and circumstances?
• What are some key methods and approaches to improve our understanding of climate change
as a driver of poverty?
2. How can poverty alleviation programs be designed to counteract climate change
impact?
• What are the scientific community role in the designing of this kind of programs?
3. How do we identify adaptations pathways and processes and prevent
maladaptation in order to reduce poverty?
• What are some of the key research questions in this regard?
4. How do we balance the production focus with a broader food system focus?
• What other aspects of the food system (e.g nutrition) should be investigated to understand the
climate change-poverty relationship?