This document discusses agile estimating and planning. It explains that estimating is difficult but necessary to satisfy managers, customers, and other stakeholders. However, estimates are often too optimistic. The document recommends counting or measuring work instead of guessing whenever possible. It also advocates for ongoing planning and re-planning in agile instead of one-time upfront planning. Techniques like story points, user story splitting, planning poker, and historical velocity data can help create estimates and plans with good accuracy using minimal effort and information.

1. Exploring Agile
Estimating & Planning
@NickOostvogels

2. WHY estimating
& planning?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/

3. It’s HARD !
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jypsygen/3732589905/

4. Why do we keep playing this
game?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/12203106@N05/1259607301/

5. The 5 wives
1. WHY? Because my manager keeps
asking for them!
2. WHY? Because he needs to give estimates
to his boss
3. WHY? Because the management team needs
to update the release planning
4. WHY? Because our customers want to know
when they get their new features
5. WHY? Because they are relying on our solution
for their own business
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jypsygen/3732589905/

6. Giving accurate estimates
is commercially interesting and
brings value to our customers!

7. Other reasons
To keep the pressure on
http://www.flickr.com/photos/wwarby/3016549999/

8. Other reasons
For political reasons
http://www.flickr.com/photos/polandmfa/5537238802/

9. One month ago in Poland
NO Belgian government for 291 days!

10. Now
NO Belgian government for 422 days!

11. Other reasons
Not having to work together
http://www.flickr.com/photos/nanophoto69/5294068212/

12. Other reasons
Yearly budgetting
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bcgovphotos/5449582500/

13. Other reasons
Cost optimizing

14. Other reasons
Personnel
planning
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sponng/32380259/

15. These are all REASONS
that can be dealt with
in another way!

16. but still...
Number 1 reason:
Customers!

17. HOW Estimating
& Planning?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/

18. 3 types of estimating
1. Guessing
http://www.flickr.com/photos/photojonny/2268845904/

19. 3 types of estimating
2. Counting
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ruiguerra/215254507/

20. 3 types of estimating
3. Measuring
http://www.flickr.com/photos/luis_is_rubbish_at_photography/5357065651/

21. Conclusion
Count or measure if you can, only
use guessing or judgement as
your last option.

22. Especially
when estimating
duration of tasks!

23. We ALL tend to be too OPTIMISTIC
Developers:
• 20% - 30% too optimistic²
Managers :
• We’ll be more productive
• Won’t make the same mistakes
• Catch up with extra effort

24. Guessing in ranges
When you can’t count or measure
1 2 3 4 5
Task 1
1 2 3 4 5
Task 2

25. Guessing in ranges
Reveals information:
• How clear is the tasks
• A best and worst case scenario

26. Counting
What can you count?

27. Nr of interfaces
Function points Lines of code
Nr of rules
Nr of roles
Database tables Web pages

28. Planning by counting
1. Find something to count closely
related to size of the software
2. Find something that’s
available now
3. Must be statistically meaningful
4. Convert count to estimate

29. Measuring

30. WHY
does Agile need a
different type of
planning?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/

31. Responding to change
http://www.flickr.com/photos/driotinto/2878033778/

32. Customer collaboration
What’s the point in getting
feedback if you can’t do anything
with it?

33. Quest for value
What
should we
build?

34. Planning never ends
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michpics17/3476946665/

35. Comparison
Up-front planning Agile planning
• At the start • Ongoing
• Stick to the plan • Re-plan
• Changes avoided • Changes weighed

36. • Ongoing
• Re-planning
• Changes weighed
We need to plan FAST,
with good ACCURACY
and LITTLE DETAILED information

37. HOW can we plan
‘Agile’?
• Plan and re-plan
• The right thing at the right time
• With minimal effort
• With good accuracy
• And little detailed information
• Creating a shared framework of understanding
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/

38. Guessing?
NOT Accurate
Too little requirements
are detailed
(only next sprint)

39. Counting & Measuring?
YES !
FAST
ACCURATE
Don’t need all details

40. Agile counting &
measuring
COUNT pieces of functionality (ex.
user stories)
MEASURE team velocity or feature
cycle time

41. Issue : size & complexity vary
Solution : use a scale
Story points
T-shirt sizes
Fruit, ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jaydedman/2593673396/

42. Issue : size & complexity vary
Solution : SPLIT them to approx.
the same size and benefit from
the statistical average
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jaydedman/2593673396/

43. Issue : size & complexity vary
Solution : SPLIT them to approx.
the same size and benefit from
the statistical average
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jaydedman/2593673396/

44. Issue : lot’s of discussions
Solution : Poker planning
http://www.flickr.com/photos/smannion/3385144016/

45. Issue : lot’s of discussions
Solution : Good Facilitation
http://www.flickr.com/photos/smannion/3385144016/

46. Issue : we never deliver what
we estimated
Solution : Reduce variation between
input & output
• Dedicated team! (or time)
• Compute velocity according to capacity
• Strive for Zero defects
• Increase input quality (story preparation)
• Retrospectives !

47. Agile Release Planning
How the h*ll ?
can you make a release plan without
detailed up-front analysis?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tripphotogallery/4059486159/

48. Count & Measure
Relative estimates or dividing into
equal parts
TIP: Silent Grouping
Image by Ken Power

49. Count & Measure
Use historical data to
project into the
future
http://www.flickr.com/photos/hdrphotographyblog/4498443106/

50. Count & Measure
Estimate in ranges
Scope
• Low
• Medium
• High
Time

51. Re-plan
Measure velocity
Scope
Adjust release plan
Time

52. Agile release planning
But answer this question first:
“What is most imporant?
• Delivering the FULL SCOPE
OR
• Delivering a useful product at a FIXED DATE

53. Count & Measure
Prioritize
• Business value
• Story mapping
• Dimensional planning
• Kano
• Bang for the buck

54. A plan loses its value right after it
is created
Because it’s part of history and did
not know about the present!²
The only way
it makes sense to use a plan,
is when you continuously re-plan!

55. Thanks!
@NickOostvogels
noostvog.wordpress.com
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