October turned out to be a rather positive and optimism inducing month - with most positive global news coming in along with the adaptation of dovish stance by RBI.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for September 2012. It discusses that September will be influential due to monetary policy announcements from the RBI, US Fed, and ECB. The RBI announcement is expected to have the least impact as no rate cut is anticipated. The ECB meeting may have a mildly positive impact on Indian equity markets. A QE3 announcement from the Fed could significantly boost risk asset prices including Indian equities. Domestically, growth is slowing across sectors but construction is growing strongly. Inflation is expected to remain around 7%, allowing for RBI rate cuts. The equity market outlook is cautiously positive with valuations attractive and the worst likely behind us.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for April 2012. It notes that recent market performance did not match improving macroeconomic factors. It recommends that now is a good time to invest in equities and long-term debt given fairly priced markets. Cost-effective portfolio design with a low-cost core and specialized satellites is also advised. The global, domestic, and sector-specific economic outlooks suggest recovery is underway in India and developed markets while inflation remains high. The equity outlook is positive given signs of recovery and expectations of continued monetary easing.
The document provides an economic and market outlook update for June 2012, noting recent declines in global equity markets due to concerns about Greece exiting the eurozone and slowing growth in the US and Europe. It reviews domestic and international economic indicators and inflation trends, and provides an outlook on the equity market and different sectors, identifying sectors like automobiles, banking, and infrastructure as overweight given expectations for monetary easing and declining oil prices.
This newsletter provides an economic update and outlook for various markets in March 2012. Global equity markets rose over the last month but volatility increased due to comments from the US Fed Chairman regarding no further quantitative easing. Investors fled risky emerging market assets. Bond yields fell slightly while gold and oil prices increased. The US economy added jobs but unemployment remained high. The European Central Bank provided banks with over 500 billion euros in 3-year loans to address the debt crisis. Inflation in the eurozone slowed.
The document provides an economic and market outlook update for May 2012. It notes that while short term triggers were confusing, the medium term outlook has predictably improved in India and globally. It expects the recent interest rate cut by the RBI to eventually reduce lending rates and boost growth. The document recommends a combination of strategic long term investing and tactical shifts between broad market and stock specific investments. It provides sector views, noting positives for banking, autos, and metals while remaining neutral on telecom, IT and cement.
Indian equity markets performed strongly over the last month and year, with the Sensex and Nifty rising 4.9% and 5% respectively over the last month and 19.9% and 21.7% over the last year. Global equity markets also saw gains. Indian debt markets remained volatile, with yields on the 10-year G-sec falling 56 basis points over the last year. Gold and oil prices rose over the last year, but gains were modest over the last month. The rupee depreciated slightly against the dollar. Overall, most markets saw gains in the last year but momentum slowed in the last month.
The document provides an economic and market update for investors in July 2012. It discusses positive developments in global markets that led to gains in Indian equity markets in June. While short-term sentiment has improved, continued weakness is expected in the real economy. The outlook is cautiously optimistic, expecting further RBI rate cuts and gains for select mid-cap stocks, but near-term volatility remains a risk.
The document provides an economic and market update for October 2012 and advice on asset allocation. It discusses positive developments in the US, Europe, and India that are supporting global equity markets. The RBI took steps to increase liquidity through a CRR cut. Inflation remains the near-term focus for RBI but commentary suggests room for future rate cuts. Recent government actions on fiscal reforms are expected to aid growth. The outlook is to increase equity allocation, with select banking, auto and infrastructure stocks seen as opportunities.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for September 2012. It discusses that September will be influential due to monetary policy announcements from the RBI, US Fed, and ECB. The RBI announcement is expected to have the least impact as no rate cut is anticipated. The ECB meeting may have a mildly positive impact on Indian equity markets. A QE3 announcement from the Fed could significantly boost risk asset prices including Indian equities. Domestically, growth is slowing across sectors but construction is growing strongly. Inflation is expected to remain around 7%, allowing for RBI rate cuts. The equity market outlook is cautiously positive with valuations attractive and the worst likely behind us.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for April 2012. It notes that recent market performance did not match improving macroeconomic factors. It recommends that now is a good time to invest in equities and long-term debt given fairly priced markets. Cost-effective portfolio design with a low-cost core and specialized satellites is also advised. The global, domestic, and sector-specific economic outlooks suggest recovery is underway in India and developed markets while inflation remains high. The equity outlook is positive given signs of recovery and expectations of continued monetary easing.
The document provides an economic and market outlook update for June 2012, noting recent declines in global equity markets due to concerns about Greece exiting the eurozone and slowing growth in the US and Europe. It reviews domestic and international economic indicators and inflation trends, and provides an outlook on the equity market and different sectors, identifying sectors like automobiles, banking, and infrastructure as overweight given expectations for monetary easing and declining oil prices.
This newsletter provides an economic update and outlook for various markets in March 2012. Global equity markets rose over the last month but volatility increased due to comments from the US Fed Chairman regarding no further quantitative easing. Investors fled risky emerging market assets. Bond yields fell slightly while gold and oil prices increased. The US economy added jobs but unemployment remained high. The European Central Bank provided banks with over 500 billion euros in 3-year loans to address the debt crisis. Inflation in the eurozone slowed.
The document provides an economic and market outlook update for May 2012. It notes that while short term triggers were confusing, the medium term outlook has predictably improved in India and globally. It expects the recent interest rate cut by the RBI to eventually reduce lending rates and boost growth. The document recommends a combination of strategic long term investing and tactical shifts between broad market and stock specific investments. It provides sector views, noting positives for banking, autos, and metals while remaining neutral on telecom, IT and cement.
Indian equity markets performed strongly over the last month and year, with the Sensex and Nifty rising 4.9% and 5% respectively over the last month and 19.9% and 21.7% over the last year. Global equity markets also saw gains. Indian debt markets remained volatile, with yields on the 10-year G-sec falling 56 basis points over the last year. Gold and oil prices rose over the last year, but gains were modest over the last month. The rupee depreciated slightly against the dollar. Overall, most markets saw gains in the last year but momentum slowed in the last month.
The document provides an economic and market update for investors in July 2012. It discusses positive developments in global markets that led to gains in Indian equity markets in June. While short-term sentiment has improved, continued weakness is expected in the real economy. The outlook is cautiously optimistic, expecting further RBI rate cuts and gains for select mid-cap stocks, but near-term volatility remains a risk.
The document provides an economic and market update for October 2012 and advice on asset allocation. It discusses positive developments in the US, Europe, and India that are supporting global equity markets. The RBI took steps to increase liquidity through a CRR cut. Inflation remains the near-term focus for RBI but commentary suggests room for future rate cuts. Recent government actions on fiscal reforms are expected to aid growth. The outlook is to increase equity allocation, with select banking, auto and infrastructure stocks seen as opportunities.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for February 2012. It notes that while recent increases in risk asset prices globally may be due to a turnaround in sentiment rather than fundamentals, several domestic avenues like long term debt, mid cap equities and infrastructure companies could provide returns with a genuine long term investment horizon. India's GDP growth slowed in the second quarter of FY12, but industrial output grew 5.9% in November. Inflation declined to 7.47% in December raising hopes that interest rates may start to fall. The equity market rallied in January led by banking, metals and capital goods sectors.
A welcome respite in softening of commodity prices provided some much- needed positive sentiment to the Indian equity markets last month.Most benchmarks recovered quite well from their early lows and are showing definite signs of positive near term movement.
Global economic developments remained in a sort of suspended animation through last month–especially coming on the back of the recent months of significant turbulence.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for April 2013. It discusses political uncertainty in India with the withdrawal of support for the ruling coalition. While inflation remains elevated, wholesale prices and core inflation are softening. The RBI cut interest rates slightly but emphasized fiscal consolidation is needed to revive growth. Global conditions remain supportive for equities though Indian markets have underperformed due to domestic challenges around inflation and reforms.
Our ‘Advice for the Wise’ monthly newsletter gives you an outlook across sectors along with economic updates both from a global and domestic perspective.
February was a significant and on the balance positive month for all Indian markets as well as the Indian economy. Here's a sneak peek at the markets and other facts required for the upcoming month.
There have been several important developments in the recent weeks. Sustained high inflation and RBI’s hawkish stance in light of it has fundamentally shifted the growth expectations downwards.
The document discusses the stock market and factors that influence stock prices. It provides information on:
1) How companies issue stock to raise funds and people buy shares to be part owners and receive dividends.
2) Long-term stock market behavior follows bull and bear markets and stock returns generally outpace other assets over the long run.
3) Stock prices serve as a barometer of economic sentiment and expectations for an economy's performance can become detached from reality in speculative bubbles.
The turm oil in financial markets across the globe caused by the rating downgrade of US Government debt by S&P will continue to haunt the Indian markets also for quite sometime to come.
1) The document discusses forward-looking statements and risks associated with mineral exploration and development projects.
2) Key terms like measured, indicated, and inferred resources are defined, though their economic potential is uncertain.
3) Primero had a solid financial position as of September 30, 2011 with $107 million in cash and $50 million in promissory notes receivable.
The Indian residential market continues to see substantial levels of new projects entering into the market, which is creating more ‘Investor friendly’ environment, with increase in choice of quality product. Consistent demand for prime residential properties is putting a upward pressure on rentals as well as capital values in almost all the micro markets. As the government is taking initiatives to boost long term demand, transaction volumes are likely to see revival in the coming festive seasons.
Dividend yield category - the consistent performer among diversified equity c...Dhuraivel Gunasekaran
The Dividend Yield category of mutual funds has consistently outperformed other equity categories over the long term thanks to generating regular income and lower volatility. These funds invest in stocks that pay high dividends relative to their price, such as large, stable companies. While the category sees less growth during market rallies, it provides downside protection in downturns. Several top-performing dividend yield funds are highlighted.
The document discusses investing with American Express' AXP Portfolio Builder funds. It recommends speaking with an American Express financial advisor to review your financial situation, goals, and risks before selecting the fund best suited for you. The advisor can then help establish an investment blueprint to achieve your goals through a single decision and purchase. International investing carries additional risks related to market, currency, economic, political, and other factors. Small company stocks and higher yield bonds also involve greater risks than larger, higher quality bonds.
This document summarizes the key points from a speech given by Erdem Başçı, the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings in April 2012. The summary discusses rebalancing of the domestic and external demand in Turkey, moderate economic growth expected in 2012, inflation peaking in April 2012 and falling for the rest of the year, and the Central Bank's focus on using policy tools to achieve its 5% inflation target by mid-2013.
Managed accounts can provide demonstrable value according to the document. The document discusses how an investment manager, Empire Builder, aims to scale investments to new levels and create lasting value for families over time through a risk-appropriate approach. It also notes that the current environment requires a dynamic portfolio management style due to increased market volatility and complexity. The document promotes several investment strategies and products from Auroch that are aimed at achieving clients' goals through a structured approach focused on research, advice, process, people, and portfolio structure.
Colliers International is pleased to release the latest quarterly report: RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET OVERVIEW, INDIA - FEB 2012.
During 4Q 2011, the rental pegged up in almost all the major markets across India except Bengaluru and Chennai, this could attributed to the demand supply gap. Looking forward, demand is likely to witness moderate growth amid a weaker global economic outlook.
For feedback on this report please contact:
Surabhi Arora MRICS
Associate Director, Research
surabhi.arora@colliers.com
Sachin Sharma
Assistant Manager, Research
Sachin.sharma@colliers.com
This document summarizes a presentation by Phil Mackintosh of Credit Suisse on issues facing the US equity markets. It addresses concerns about high frequency trading (HFT) and declining liquidity hurting institutional investors. While HFT is blamed for faster markets that disadvantage long-term investors, it also benefits the markets by providing tighter spreads, particularly for large ETF trades. However, costs have risen for smaller investors and market fragmentation is a problem. Overall the markets may need reforms to restore balance for different types of participants.
The failure of researchers to link evidence to policy and practice produces evidence that no one uses, impedes innovation, and leads to mediocre or even detrimental development policies. To help improve the definition, design, and implementation of policy research, researchers should adopt a strategic outcome-oriented approach.
This presentation was put together by CommsConsult for the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) biannual research workshop on Policy Engagement held in Mombasa, Kenya, November 2010.
Bridgingg the research policy gap influencing policy change-nairobiThe Scinnovent Centre
Presentation by Dr. Maurice Bolo, during the Scinnovent Centre' training on The Art of Influencing policy Change: tools and strategies for researchers, held on 12th -14th February 2013 at The African Academy of Sciences Campus Nairobi
The document provides an economic and market outlook for February 2012. It notes that while recent increases in risk asset prices globally may be due to a turnaround in sentiment rather than fundamentals, several domestic avenues like long term debt, mid cap equities and infrastructure companies could provide returns with a genuine long term investment horizon. India's GDP growth slowed in the second quarter of FY12, but industrial output grew 5.9% in November. Inflation declined to 7.47% in December raising hopes that interest rates may start to fall. The equity market rallied in January led by banking, metals and capital goods sectors.
A welcome respite in softening of commodity prices provided some much- needed positive sentiment to the Indian equity markets last month.Most benchmarks recovered quite well from their early lows and are showing definite signs of positive near term movement.
Global economic developments remained in a sort of suspended animation through last month–especially coming on the back of the recent months of significant turbulence.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for April 2013. It discusses political uncertainty in India with the withdrawal of support for the ruling coalition. While inflation remains elevated, wholesale prices and core inflation are softening. The RBI cut interest rates slightly but emphasized fiscal consolidation is needed to revive growth. Global conditions remain supportive for equities though Indian markets have underperformed due to domestic challenges around inflation and reforms.
Our ‘Advice for the Wise’ monthly newsletter gives you an outlook across sectors along with economic updates both from a global and domestic perspective.
February was a significant and on the balance positive month for all Indian markets as well as the Indian economy. Here's a sneak peek at the markets and other facts required for the upcoming month.
There have been several important developments in the recent weeks. Sustained high inflation and RBI’s hawkish stance in light of it has fundamentally shifted the growth expectations downwards.
The document discusses the stock market and factors that influence stock prices. It provides information on:
1) How companies issue stock to raise funds and people buy shares to be part owners and receive dividends.
2) Long-term stock market behavior follows bull and bear markets and stock returns generally outpace other assets over the long run.
3) Stock prices serve as a barometer of economic sentiment and expectations for an economy's performance can become detached from reality in speculative bubbles.
The turm oil in financial markets across the globe caused by the rating downgrade of US Government debt by S&P will continue to haunt the Indian markets also for quite sometime to come.
1) The document discusses forward-looking statements and risks associated with mineral exploration and development projects.
2) Key terms like measured, indicated, and inferred resources are defined, though their economic potential is uncertain.
3) Primero had a solid financial position as of September 30, 2011 with $107 million in cash and $50 million in promissory notes receivable.
The Indian residential market continues to see substantial levels of new projects entering into the market, which is creating more ‘Investor friendly’ environment, with increase in choice of quality product. Consistent demand for prime residential properties is putting a upward pressure on rentals as well as capital values in almost all the micro markets. As the government is taking initiatives to boost long term demand, transaction volumes are likely to see revival in the coming festive seasons.
Dividend yield category - the consistent performer among diversified equity c...Dhuraivel Gunasekaran
The Dividend Yield category of mutual funds has consistently outperformed other equity categories over the long term thanks to generating regular income and lower volatility. These funds invest in stocks that pay high dividends relative to their price, such as large, stable companies. While the category sees less growth during market rallies, it provides downside protection in downturns. Several top-performing dividend yield funds are highlighted.
The document discusses investing with American Express' AXP Portfolio Builder funds. It recommends speaking with an American Express financial advisor to review your financial situation, goals, and risks before selecting the fund best suited for you. The advisor can then help establish an investment blueprint to achieve your goals through a single decision and purchase. International investing carries additional risks related to market, currency, economic, political, and other factors. Small company stocks and higher yield bonds also involve greater risks than larger, higher quality bonds.
This document summarizes the key points from a speech given by Erdem Başçı, the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings in April 2012. The summary discusses rebalancing of the domestic and external demand in Turkey, moderate economic growth expected in 2012, inflation peaking in April 2012 and falling for the rest of the year, and the Central Bank's focus on using policy tools to achieve its 5% inflation target by mid-2013.
Managed accounts can provide demonstrable value according to the document. The document discusses how an investment manager, Empire Builder, aims to scale investments to new levels and create lasting value for families over time through a risk-appropriate approach. It also notes that the current environment requires a dynamic portfolio management style due to increased market volatility and complexity. The document promotes several investment strategies and products from Auroch that are aimed at achieving clients' goals through a structured approach focused on research, advice, process, people, and portfolio structure.
Colliers International is pleased to release the latest quarterly report: RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET OVERVIEW, INDIA - FEB 2012.
During 4Q 2011, the rental pegged up in almost all the major markets across India except Bengaluru and Chennai, this could attributed to the demand supply gap. Looking forward, demand is likely to witness moderate growth amid a weaker global economic outlook.
For feedback on this report please contact:
Surabhi Arora MRICS
Associate Director, Research
surabhi.arora@colliers.com
Sachin Sharma
Assistant Manager, Research
Sachin.sharma@colliers.com
This document summarizes a presentation by Phil Mackintosh of Credit Suisse on issues facing the US equity markets. It addresses concerns about high frequency trading (HFT) and declining liquidity hurting institutional investors. While HFT is blamed for faster markets that disadvantage long-term investors, it also benefits the markets by providing tighter spreads, particularly for large ETF trades. However, costs have risen for smaller investors and market fragmentation is a problem. Overall the markets may need reforms to restore balance for different types of participants.
The failure of researchers to link evidence to policy and practice produces evidence that no one uses, impedes innovation, and leads to mediocre or even detrimental development policies. To help improve the definition, design, and implementation of policy research, researchers should adopt a strategic outcome-oriented approach.
This presentation was put together by CommsConsult for the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) biannual research workshop on Policy Engagement held in Mombasa, Kenya, November 2010.
Bridgingg the research policy gap influencing policy change-nairobiThe Scinnovent Centre
Presentation by Dr. Maurice Bolo, during the Scinnovent Centre' training on The Art of Influencing policy Change: tools and strategies for researchers, held on 12th -14th February 2013 at The African Academy of Sciences Campus Nairobi
Untangling some challenges and opportunities in water research on the African continent today – with focus on domestic and agricultural use
Presentation: Stella Williams,
Agricultural Economist, Professor
Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife, Osun State, Nigeria
The International Forum on Water and Food (IFWF) is the premier gathering of water and food scientists working on improving water management for agricultural production in developing countries.
The CGIAR Challenge Program for Water and Food (CPWF) represents one of the most comprehensive investments in the world on water, food and environment research.The Forum explores how the CPWF research-for-development (R4D) approach can address water and food challenges through a combination of process, institutional and technical innovations.
Strategies to enhance research impact: Six lessonsODI_Webmaster
John Young's presentation at the GDN workshop on 'Maximizing the Impact of Agricultural Research in Africa' held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in October 2008. In his talk, he reviews and expands upon the six lessons that ODI's RAPID programme has learned about helping research inform policy and practice.
1) The document summarizes a study that examined how policymakers access scientific knowledge through a literature review, expert interviews, and case studies and surveys.
2) The study found limited integration of scientific knowledge into policy, with competing sources of evidence and tensions between researcher and policymaker interests being common challenges.
3) Surveys of researchers, intermediaries, and policymakers found most were dissatisfied with access to scientific knowledge and identified major obstacles like lack of relevant scientific information and limited communication and interaction between scientists and policymakers.
The document provides an economic update and investment outlook for February 2012. It notes that while the recent rise in global risk asset prices in January was a welcome change from late 2011, fundamentals have not significantly improved. Hence, the rally may be subject to reversal on any macroeconomic issues. The newsletter recommends long term debt, mid cap equities, and infrastructure companies as attractive investment avenues given their valuations and expected growth, with horizons of 1 to 2 years. It provides a snapshot of key economic indicators and markets.
The document provides an economic and market update for August 2012, analyzing factors such as global economic conditions, domestic economic growth and inflation trends, performance of key equity and debt markets, and providing an outlook on various sectors and the overall market. It notes recent monetary policy actions by central banks and analyzes their likely impact, while also offering recommendations to investors on portfolio rebalancing and positioning across different asset classes.
The document provides an economic and market update and outlook for November 2012. It discusses recent performance and trends in global equity markets, the Indian economy and key sectors. The overall outlook is cautiously positive. The Indian economy is seen to have bottomed out, and further monetary easing and fiscal policy actions are expected to revive growth going forward. Private sector banks are favored over public sector banks based on better Q2 results.
The document provides an economic update for key global markets as of February 28, 2013. It notes that equity markets in India, the US, and Japan saw gains over the last year, while commodities declined. Indian debt markets saw yields stabilize while the rupee depreciated against the dollar. Overall, the global economic environment remains cautiously optimistic but risks like the Italian election warrant monitoring.
The document provides an economic update and outlook on various markets such as equity, debt, forex, and commodities. It recommends staying invested in equity markets while using put options to hedge against volatility, and advises that gold continues to be an effective hedge. The outlook expects ongoing volatility in Indian asset markets due to global liquidity and potential asset bubbles.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for 2012, predicting that growth will bottom out in the first quarter of 2012 at 6% for India while inflation averages around 7%, and that monetary policy in India will start easing on the back of slowing growth and easing inflation. Globally, the outlook expects no recession in the US with growth around 2% and a tricky situation in Europe, while select emerging markets and exposure to crude oil, the US dollar, and select equities are recommended for investment.
Advise for the wise is monthly journal which gives you a highlight of the current market analysis in terms of gold, equity, debt and forex market. Get the overview of the entire financial market in dew slides.
‘Advice for the Wise’ newsletter for the month of October is out; it would give you a detailed outlook across sectors along with economic updates both from a global and domestic perspective, do take a look.
Roland berger investment_banking_20120710shaikhsalman
The document discusses the outlook for the global investment banking industry in summer 2012. It makes the following key points:
1) Global investment banking revenues are projected to be in the range of EUR 200-260 billion for 2012, depending on how the European sovereign debt crisis unfolds. This represents only a small increase or potential decrease from 2011 levels.
2) Performance in investment banking strongly differed between peer groups in 2011-2012. Emerging markets players grew while many mid-sized developed markets players came under pressure.
3) Unless major changes are made to business models, return on equity for most investment banks is expected to remain in the single digits. Significant restructuring and job cuts may be needed for the
Top Debt fund schemes to participate in falling interest rates environmentDhuraivel Gunasekaran
1) The document discusses how different categories of debt mutual funds could be impacted as interest rates are expected to fall over the next 6-12 months.
2) It recommends short-term funds for the next 2-3 months and longer duration funds like gilt funds and income funds for investors with higher risk appetite who can stay invested for 9-15 months.
3) The top performing long duration debt funds that could benefit from falling rates are identified as Kotak Gilt - Invest, Birla Sunlife G Sec – LT, Kotak Bond - Plan A, and SBI Magnum Income.
We initiate coverage of Exista with a Buy rating and a target price of ISK 38.1 per share, implying upside potential of 25% from the current share price. We believe Exista has positioned itself well through its strategic holdings in Sampo and Kaupthing, which provide opportunities for expansion into the Nordic financial market. The operational arm gives Exista steady cash flow and reserves to support its investment activities. While market risk and concentration risk are concerns, we are optimistic about recovery in financial markets and opportunities for Exista.
Remarks by Robert L. Reynolds, President and Chief Executive Officer, Putnam InvestmentsFinancial Advisor/Private Wealth Innovative Retirement SymposiumOrlando, Florida, March 12, 2013
One reason I was pleased to be invited is that Financial Advisor’s slogan, “Knowledge for the Sophisticated Investor,” echoes the core themes I want to talk with you about today. I believe that there is a crying need — among asset managers, advisors, and investors — for new thinking and new solutions.
Abraham Lincoln’s great adage “As our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew” has never been more relevant. Five years after the worst economic crisis to hit global capitalism in our lifetimes, we are still feeling the aftershocks. We find ourselves moving ever so tentatively into a financial future about which the only thing we seem sure of is that it will likely be very different than the investment world we all grew up with.
Core topics
To me, this suggests that the conventional wisdoms shaped by decades of high-return investing — first in equities from 1982 to 2000, then in fixed-income markets over most of this young century — need to be re-examined, revised, or even scrapped.
And while I certainly don’t claim to have all the answers, I do want to sketch some of the new solution-oriented approaches that Putnam sees emerging, such as innovative investment strategies, changed views on portfolio construction, greater risk-awareness, and advances in practice management, including new technologies to enable advisors to reach and influence clients.
I would also like to suggest three retirement policy innovations that the financial services industry should take the lead on — now.
This document provides an overview of Centurion Apartment REIT, which invests in income-producing apartment properties in Canada. Some key points:
- Centurion Apartment REIT aims to provide steady monthly income distributions of 8% annually and potential capital growth by investing in rental apartments.
- Investing in apartment REITs offers advantages like reliable income, investment growth, lower volatility compared to stocks, and inflation protection.
- Private REITs like Centurion Apartment REIT may exhibit more stable pricing with lower volatility than publicly-traded REITs which can experience stock market fluctuations.
- Historical data shows the ICREIM/IPD Canada Residential "Apartment" Property
Lessons for 2010: Yields, Breakdown historical yields – compare indirect dividend yields from REITs with direct-yields from property funds. Market Backdrop, Discuss long-term trends, contrast recent recover with 2008 performance, total return composition and lessons learned. Position, Explore the prevailing opportunities in REITs and suggest best practices for investing REIT Funds in the future..
The key points from the document are:
1) In the past week, Indian markets gained over 2% despite consolidating in the last 3 sessions, buoyed by hopes that major central banks will enact stimulus measures.
2) The BSE Sensex surged 2.13% for the week while the Nifty gained 2.27%.
3) The RBI maintained its status quo on interest rates, dashing hopes of a stimulus, but markets recovered and moved higher later in the week on global optimism.
K bank fx & rates strategies views on thailand’s bond market in q3KBank Fx Dealing Room
- The document summarizes views on Thailand's bond market in Q3, expecting about THB100 billion in government bond issuance, excluding THB40 billion in inflation-linked bonds. Fiscal conditions remain strong with revenue exceeding forecasts.
- It discusses details of the bond issuance schedule, and notes the introduction of Thailand's first inflation-linked bonds in July. Savings bonds will be issued in September.
- Monetary Policy Committee minutes reaffirmed inflation as a near-term concern over slowing global growth, though risks remain including energy prices and interest rate normalization. The policy rate forecast of 3.50% by year-end remains intact.
- The Concentrated Growth strategy had strong returns in Q1 2011, with the portfolio rising 11.7% compared to a 9.8% rise in the benchmark index. Since inception in August 2007, the strategy has earned an annualized return of 10.0% versus 5.3% for the benchmark.
- Top contributors included stocks like Monotype Imaging Holdings and Chart Industries, while detractors included stocks like Bridgepoint Education and Primo Water Corp, which was sold during the quarter.
- The portfolio manager remains optimistic due to holdings in well-positioned secular growth companies, though acknowledges economic headwinds like inflation could lead to short-term volatility.
Similar to Advice For The Wise - November'2011 (20)
The document provides a weekly summary of key economic indicators and financial market performance in India for the period of 1st-8th June 2018. Some of the key highlights included:
- The Indian equity market ended the week flat with the Sensex gaining 0.61% supported by expectations of a normal monsoon, rupee strengthening, and falling crude prices.
- Bond yields rose as RBI raised repo and reverse repo rates by 25 bps while maintaining a neutral liquidity stance, suggesting this may be the only rate hike this fiscal year.
- FII investments were positive at Rs. 1,164 crore while DII investments were higher at Rs. 2,470 crore for the week.
- The Indian equity market rose slightly over the week, aided by falling crude oil prices and recovery in the rupee. Volatility increased due to political issues in Italy and trade war fears. Telecom and oil & gas sectors saw gains while infrastructure, realty, and pharma declined.
- The 10-year Indian government bond yield increased sharply by 11 basis points to 7.84% due to higher than expected GDP growth and inflation numbers.
- Key economic indicators included 7.7% GDP growth in Q4, 4.58% CPI inflation in April, and 12.65% growth in credit in May. The RBI's monetary policy meeting on June 6th is expected to take a h
- The key Indian equity indices Sensex closed the week with marginal gains of 0.5% despite volatility in the market from events like US Fed rate hikes and the de-nuclearization of North Korea. Pharma stocks gained the most while metals and oil & gas dragged.
- Yields on the 10-year Indian government bond eased initially but rose later in the week due to higher inflation numbers. The RBI kept policy rates unchanged.
- Internationally, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected while China's industrial production growth slowed slightly. The Trump-Kim summit led to agreements on denuclearization.
The document provides an outlook on global debt markets in November 2016. It notes that global bond yields are rising rapidly as central banks move away from easy monetary policies. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 5-month high near 1.87% on expectations of a December rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. German and UK bond yields also increased. Global bond markets experienced a significant selloff due to expectations of higher US rates and uncertainty around the ECB's bond purchase program.
The document provides an overview and outlook across various asset classes and sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- Domestic equity markets have seen modest gains of around 8.5% year-to-date despite recent volatility due to political tensions. Bond yields have fallen in India on expectations of further rate cuts.
- Global central banks like the Fed and ECB appear less accommodative but the US economy remains resilient. Growth has slowed in Japan and parts of Europe.
- Automobiles, banks, FMCG and infrastructure sectors are expected to perform well in India, while cement may see a recovery. Select domestic sectors and stocks still appear attractive relative to other emerging markets.
- The document provides an economic and market summary for the week of November 14-18, 2016. It discusses developments in global markets, the Indian economy and stock market, and provides commentary on sectors and asset classes.
- Key points include the expectation of US Federal rate hikes in December, the impact of India's demonetization on various industries, and an outlook that Indian stock markets will see further declines in the short-term but provide buying opportunities. Debt markets are also seen as favorable due to expected interest rate cuts.
The document provides an analysis of recent events affecting global markets. It discusses two major events: 1) US presidential elections resulting in a victory for Donald Trump and 2) India's demonetization of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 currency notes. It summarizes the short-term negative impacts these events will have on certain sectors in India as well as longer-term positive impacts expected, especially in banking, infrastructure, and rate-sensitive sectors. Market indices are expected to remain cautious in the near-term but the analysis maintains a long-term bullish outlook for Indian markets.
The document summarizes recent news and developments in global markets and the Indian economy from October 31 - November 4, 2016. It discusses the impact of the FBI announcement regarding Hillary Clinton's emails on US and global markets. It also covers the upcoming US presidential election and its potential effects. Domestically, it discusses recent inflation data, bank earnings, and the progress of GST implementation in India. Globally, it mentions recent economic data and central bank decisions in the US, UK, Eurozone, and China.
The document provides an equity market outlook and analysis for the period of Diwali to Diwali (October 2016 to October 2017). It notes that large caps underperformed with returns of 5-6% last year while midcaps saw stronger returns of 19-20%. For the current year, it expects lower double digit returns for large caps and 15-20% returns for mid and small caps. It recommends focusing on sectors with good private demand like financials, automobiles, and consumer durables. Large caps are seen as providing stability but lower returns compared to midcaps where returns of 15% are expected over the next year for those with a higher risk appetite and 2-3 year investment horizon.
- Markets have shown a flattish trend for the past few weeks due to mixed global news and lack of interesting domestic news. Quarterly earnings will be a key focus.
- The US Fed minutes showed many members supported a rate hike while others wanted rates kept steady. Globally, some nations want softer rates while developed nations prefer harder rates.
- In India, quarterly earnings just began and will be important, with IT companies continuing to disappoint so far. Regional cement players may report better numbers than large caps with nationwide reach. Private banks are expected to report strong results.
- Last week, global equity markets declined sharply due to one bad trading day that rattled investors who had become complacent about continuously rising prices. However, market corrections of 6-8% are normal and investors should focus on investing in good quality stocks during declines rather than withdrawing.
- Concerns remain about instability in Europe's banking system, uncertainty around US interest rates after the election, and potential for Chinese currency devaluation. Wholesale inflation slowed in India while the government may increase public spending to spur growth.
- Key stock indices declined over the past week with the Sensex falling 1.46% while most sectors also ended lower with metals and power dropping the most.
- The monetary policy committee unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by 0.25 basis points, though some banks have passed on lower rates between 0.10-0.15%. Rate cuts are hoped to boost consumption.
- Early indicators show strong consumer durable and auto sales during the Ganpati and upcoming festivals, suggesting good consumption for the next few months.
- Earnings growth of 17-18% is expected this fiscal year, with most growth occurring in the third and fourth quarters.
- Upcoming global events like the US elections and potential interest rate hikes could increase volatility.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic markets and economic indicators for the week of September 5-9, 2016. Key points include:
- There was a global market correction on Friday due to falling bond prices, though this does not necessarily mean the dislocation in markets has been corrected.
- Indian consumer inflation is expected to have eased in August but may still be too high for an interest rate cut in September. Tax receipts rose robustly in August.
- Economic data from major economies like Germany, the US, and China suggests slowing growth, while long-term debt issuance in Europe may increase risks.
- Indian indices fell for the week while commodities like crude oil rose and the rupee
The document provides a weekly summary of domestic and global economic news from August 29th to September 2nd, 2016.
Domestically, Indian factory activity expanded at its fastest pace since mid-2015 in August. However, India's annual economic growth slowed to 7.1% in the second quarter, below expectations. Globally, British manufacturing rebounded in August after Brexit. US job growth slowed in August, likely putting off a Federal Reserve rate hike. China and the US committed to refrain from competitive currency devaluations. Major stock indices rose around 1-3% over the week.
This document provides an overview and outlook across various sectors in India and globally. It discusses domestic and global economic factors, equity and debt market performance, sector-specific views, and other relevant topics. Key points include a positive outlook for domestic consumption sectors due to the festive season, signs of recovery in the Indian manufacturing sector, and expectations that global central banks will continue accommodative monetary policies.
- The equity markets in India traded in a narrow range over the past week and are expected to remain range-bound in the coming weeks. Key economic data like GDP and core sector growth were in line with expectations.
- In the US, recent data points to continued moderate economic growth and makes the case for an interest rate hike in September. The impact of rate hikes is expected to be greater on developed markets than emerging markets like India.
- Macroeconomic indicators from China suggested efforts to reduce corporate financing costs and tax burdens to boost the economy, while the central bank took measures to inject liquidity into markets.
This document provides a weekly summary of economic, market, and other news from August 16-19, 2016. Some key points:
- India's CPI inflation rose above 6% in July, exceeding the central bank's tolerance limit and raising expectations of further rate hikes.
- Global government bond yields increased modestly, with the US 10-year yield rising to 1.6%, while oil prices fell on doubts that upcoming producer talks would reduce oversupply.
- Domestically, strong monsoon rains are expected to boost agricultural growth and the overall economy. Internationally, China's exports declined in 2016 and are projected to fall further due to economic pressures.
This document provides a weekly summary of global and domestic economic news and market performance for the week of August 8-12, 2016. Some key points:
- India's wholesale and consumer price inflation increased in July driven by higher food prices. Industrial production growth slowed in the Eurozone and China.
- US retail sales were flat in July and the budget deficit declined, while China's economic growth slowed with the weakest investment growth in over 15 years.
- The Indian stock market ended the week slightly lower, with the Sensex falling 0.11%. Most sectoral indices also declined over the week except for banking. Commodity prices were mixed with gold falling slightly while crude oil rose.
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Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
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BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdfcoingabbar
Introducing BONKMILLON - The Most Bonkers Meme Coin Yet
Let's be real for a second – the world of meme coins can feel like a bit of a circus at times. Every other day, there's a new token promising to take you "to the moon" or offering some groundbreaking utility that'll change the game forever. But how many of them actually deliver on that hype?
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
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1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 11
Forex 13
Commodities 14
Real Estate 17
2
3. From the Desk of the CIO…
Dear Investor,
October turned out to be a rather positive and optimism Debt markets have regained some of their shine with the
inducing month - with most positive global news coming in end in sight for the monetary policy tightening. In light of
along with the adaptation of dovish stance by RBI. The festive the RBI statement on the eve of policy announcement, we
season helped maintain a positive sentiment. While the results believe that long term corporate and quasi-government
of several listed companies disappointed investors, especially debt has now become attractive to invest in. While the
in the infrastructure space, the beginning of the end of interest rates may yet go up slightly after a brief pause,
monetary policy tightening has rekindled investor's hopes. they are near their peak and investors can start to buy
long tenor bonds and long term debt mutual funds.
European governments (especially French and German) have
continued to test the limits of global financial system as they Looking back at the year gone by so far, one would notice
dither, argue about and re-re-redraft the comprehensive the large movements in gold, US Dollar in the positive
rescue plan for the troubled governments of Greece, Portugal, direction while equities in the negative direction. That got
Spain and the pre-emptive action to avoid larger ones like Italy us thinking about whether these assets can be combined
from losing market access. With their self imposed deadline of into a portfolio which is optimized dynamically - with the
the November 3rd G20 summit for reaching a consensus on intention of minimizing risks for a good return. We have
the rescue plan drawing near, there are positive signs of action designed just the right portfolio for this. This month we
in the major European capitals. We continue to believe that are launching Pi - our multi asset quant fund. The simple
Euro as a currency will survive, Greece may default (though idea of Pi is to make sure that investors' wealth grows
indirectly and partially) while Portugal et al will not. Due to a year on year on the back of appreciation of one or more
disorderly default in a Greece or a failure to reach any decisive of its constituent asset classes i.e. equities, commodities,
plan for rescue of others there might be significant downside gold and currencies.
in equity markets; however the likelihood of this happening is
lower than 10%.
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.20” 3
5. Economy Update - Global
• An annual expansion of 2.5% in the third quarter of 2011 has pushed American GDP back
to pre-recession levels after 15 quarters, according to figures released last week.
US • United States’ Consumer Confidence for the month Oct 2011 is at 39.80, which has
dipped from 46.40 in September 2011.
• Greece’s debt will be reduced, private banks and insurer are asked to accept 50 percent
losses on the Greek bond holdings, and the rescue fund EFSF will be strengthened,
supported also by non-European investors
Europe • The CPI rose 0.6% in September increasing the inflation for the year to 5.2% higher from
an expected estimate of 4.9%. The inflation number is the highest since Sept 2008
• The seasonally adjusted Markit /JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 50.6 in
October, up from 49.3 in September, signalling a marginal improvement in manufacturing
Japan sector operating conditions. A level over 50 also signifies growth while a level below 50
indicates contraction.
• The jobless rate slid to 4.1% from 4.3% in Sept’11, and the core food inflation was steady
at 0.2%.
Emerging • China’s HSBC PMI Index came in at 51.0(Oct’11), a solid rebound from the 49.9 recorded in
economies September to mark the first rise above the 50 level that demarcates contraction from
expansion since June’11.
5
6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
16.0% IIP monthly data • The GDP growth rate for Q1 FY12 came in at 7.7%, the
14.0% weakest in last 6 quarters. The growth was seen at 7.8% in
12.0%
10.0%
the last quarter. The economic growth for FY11 was 8.5%
8.0% backed by improved farm output and growth in the
6.0% services sector.
4.0%
2.0% • "While the manufacturing sector grew 7.2 percent in April-
0.0% June from a year earlier, construction was a dark spot in
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
the data, rising just 1.2 percent annually, down from 7.7
percent a year earlier, as higher interest rates dampened
• IIP figure came in at 4% which was lower than the the housing market and big-ticket projects were plagued by
consensus of 4.4%. A look at the subsectors clearly points delays in approvals. Mining output grew 1.8 percent,
to a broad-based slowdown of sub-4% YoY growth across
sectors. Apart from electricity which continues to grow at compared with 7.4 percent a year ago while Financing,
close to double digits (9.5% YoY), manufacturing (4.5% insurance, real estate and business service grew 9.1 percent
YoY) and mining (-3.4% YoY) continued to disappoint. On versus 9.8 percent a year ago.
the user side, capital goods remained volatile growing at • A steady rise in interest rates combined with stubbornly
3.9% YoY in Aug-11. high inflation would impact demand and credit sensitive
sectors making a growth target of 8% difficult to achieve.
• Revisions for July are significant in mining, manufacturing
and consumer goods sectors. Overall IIP growth was
revised upwards from 3.3% YoY to 3.8% YoY. 10.0 GDP growth
9.0
• The IIP figures have been very volatile in the last year and
8.0
especially after the introduction of the new series. We
believe that monthly indicators and IIP in isolation may 7.0
not a very efficient way of indicating long term growth. 6.0
We expect the growth to eventually moderate out though
5.0
high input costs may be a dampener for the
manufacturing sector. 4.0
FY10(Q2) FY10(Q3) FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1)
6
7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs • The inflation rate in India was reported at 10.1
Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
percent in Sept’2011 vis-à-vis 9.78% in
30.0%
August‘11. Food inflation, as measured by the
25.0%
Wholesale Price Index (WPI), stood at 12.21%
20.0%
15.0%
on the week ending 22nd Oct’11 vis-à-vis at
10.0%
13.55% in the corresponding week of the
5.0%
previous year.
• With the monetary tightening stance by RBI, we
do expect WPI inflation numbers to moderate
• The credit grew 23% on a y-o-y basis while deposits out eventually.
grew at ~21% in September. Even though RBI has
been raising interest rates, an increase was seen in
personal loans.
10.0% Wholesale Price Index
• Due to the successive increase in the cost of 9.5%
borrowing, a moderation has been seen in the credit 9.0%
growth and the current estimate for the Fiscal is ~ 8.5%
17-19%.
8.0%
• On account of the slowing growth in the economy 7.5%
and the expected decrease in inflation, a pause is
expected in the interest rate hikes.
* End of period figures
7
8. Equity Outlook
The last of October saw a sharp rally in risky assets across the world on statement by the Governor remains has changed from hawkish to dovish
the back of the three –pronged agreement reached by European Union with growth continuing to remain under pressure. The governor talked
political leadership to stem the contagion from the soverign-debt crisis: A about ‘De-sesonalized quarter-on-quarter headline and core inflation
voluntary 50% hair cut for private investors in Greek debt which would measures showing moderation’. According to RBI, inflation will start
help reduce soverign debt in greece, Recapitalizing seventy European falling in December and will moderate to about 7% by March 2012. The
banks to the extent of 108 billion dollars and increasing the size of Governor also said that ‘likelihood of a rate action in December mid-
European Union Financial Stabilty Fund (EFSF) to 1.4 trillion dollars which quarter policy review is relatively low’. RBI has cut the FY12 growth
would provide support to other peripheral Euro area countries.. All the forecast from 8% to 7.6%. RBI has effectively hiked rates by 525 bps in
three measures combined with further fiscal austerity measures were last sixteen months and this could result in demand destruction leading
supposed to stem the contagion in European markets. to price moderation. Our own sense is that considering the significant
slowdown in growth expectation, Rbi will definitely pause if not end the
The Greek Prime minister announced that he will put the bailout package
rate tightening cycle now.
given to Greece through a referendum due to lack of political consensus
in Greece. The referendum is expected to happen in the month of FII’s put in 2500 of fresh money into Indian equity markets which
December and will decide if Greece will accept the terms of the bailout resulted in markets rallying almost 7%.The rupee after depreciating
package. It is our view that for Euro area to sustain, sooner or later, almost 13% to 50 levels has bounced slightly and stabilized around 49
European governments will have to move towards some kind of fiscal mark. We believe this provides a very exciting entry opportunity in equity
union to prevent a full-blown crisis. A move in the opposite direction markets for dollar investors. The second quarter earnings have come in
could have huge economic and political costs. on expected lines. The earning season has been led by private sector
banks, FMCG and automobiles. ITC and HUL came in with excellent
Third quarter GDP data in US came in at 2.5%, above consensus
results and both are trading at life time highs. We continue to remain
expectations which eased concerns about US economy moving towards a
positive on FMCG names as consumption demand remains quite strong.
double-dip. The dollar Index fell 5% resulting in sharp bounces in equity,
PSU banks continue to face pressure on the asset quality with power
commodities and crude oil. In this month’s US Fed meeting, the markets
books coming under great pressure. Also, Infra companies continue to
will look for any indication of further quantitative easing although Fed
face pressure due to high interest rates and lack of new orders.
Chairman continues to mention that Fed has several tools available at
their disposal to spur growth and they will use it as and when required. With interest rates peaking out and inflation also expected to start
US consumer demand has been holding up so far and the Thanksgiving coming down in next few months, we expect that the coming months
holiday buying will give a good indicator of how that demand will move should see improvement in equity market sentiment. We advise
from here onwards. investors to stay invested and build a longer term equity portfolio.
RBI hiked repo rates by 25bps on 25th October. The tone of the policy
8
9. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare Over weight developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
CRAMS space
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
FMCG Over weight
growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. We believe Power sector to be a better play over
other sub sectors such as ports, roads and telecom infrastructure, because of favorable economics
E&C Neutral
under PPP model. Within power, we like the engineering companies and utilities over T&D and other
infrastructure owners because of their superior profitability and better competitive dynamics.
Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has
BFSI Neutral
good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe banks
will be able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels
Telecom Neutral in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we
believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
9
9
10. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth. Raw material prices have started
Automobiles Neutral coming down which would boost margins. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural
vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about
Metals Neutral growth in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices will bounce back once
growth recovers and hence would be positive on industrial metals space.
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Under weight
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply side.
Cement Under weight
We do see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters.
IT space might come under pressure due to continued concerns about growth in developed parts of
IT/ITES Under weight the world. While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order
inflows might slow down in near term
We like the growth prospects of power sector but believe that value will be created by engineering
Power Utilities Under weight services providers. Merchant power rates have been sliding downwards and coal prices have been
on the way up putting pressure on return ratios.
11. Debt Outlook
9.1 Yield curve 9.30 10-yr G-sec yield
9.0
8.80
8.9
8.8 8.30
8.7
7.80
8.6
8.5
(%)
7.30
8.4
8.3 6.80
7.1
0.0
0.9
1.8
2.7
3.5
4.4
5.3
6.2
8.0
8.8
9.7
10.6
11.5
12.4
13.3
14.1
15.0
15.9
16.8
17.7
18.5
19.4
• The 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield increased by 44 bps in October to close at 8.88%. This was after
an increase of 25 bps in the interest rates by RBI.
• The medium term papers rallied the most in the month and rose 52 bps to close at 8.83%. While the
G-sec yields increased, the 10 year AAA corporate paper yields remained constant at 9.84%.
• Though no easing has been seen in the inflation figures, a pause is expected by the RBI and no hike
may be seen in the immediate future though the central bank would monitor the inflation closely.
11
12. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
We recommend investment into short term bond funds with
a 6-12 month investment horizon as we expect them to
Short Tenure deliver superior returns due to high YTM. We have seen the
Debt short term yields harden due to reduced liquidity and
consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary pressures. Till
these factors do not stabilize, we see Short term bond funds
and FMPs as an interesting investment option.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at
the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed
Credit Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also
contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at
current levels attractive.
RBI hiked the interest rates for the 13th time since march 2010 by
25 Bps, the repo rate now stands at 8.5% and reverse repo at
Long Tenure 7.5%. RBI has shown an intention to pause further rate hikes.
Our stance on long term debt remains neutral believe that it may
Debt
be a good time to start looking for interesting investment
opportunities in the medium term.
12
13. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
100 0
-2000
5.00% 80 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
-4000
4.00% 60 -6000
3.00% 40 -8000
-10000
20
2.00% -12000
0 -14000
1.00%
-20 -16000
0.00%
-1.00% USD GBP EURO YEN • India’s merchandise exports grew 36.4 per cent in September,
-2.00% reaching $24.8 billion from $18.2 bn a year before. However,
-3.00% this is a much lower rise than the previous two months. In July,
-4.00% exports grew 81.8 per cent; in August, these rose 44.2 per cent
-5.00% 140000
Capital Account Balance
• INR appreciated by about 1% during the month. Also, 90000
during the month it did witness a low of 50.07, but
recovered after some stability was sensed in the 40000
International markets. It closed at 48.87 at the end of
the month. -10000
FY 10 (Q2) FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1)
• The Eurozone currencies strengthened in the month as a • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and
decision was taken to write of 50% of the debts and to stood at `273133 Cr. at the end of the year. For FY 12, the
capital account is at `93,621Cr. for Q1.
strengthen the EFSF bringing some sense of containment
• We expect factors as higher interest rates to attract more
of the Eurozone crisis. investments to India. Increased limits for investment by
FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though
uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a
dampener.
13
14. Commodities
30000
The problems in the Euro Zone is far from over as concerns Gold
28000
were raised on the implementation of proposed Greece
26000
bailout package. Further, concerns were raised on Chinese 24000
Precious Shadow lending and possible slowing or the hard landing in 22000
China. The fundamental factors largely remained
Metals unchanged and Indian market has seen fresh buying
20000
18000
demand during the festive Diwali Season despite prices
staying higher. Expect gold prices to remain firm as any
correction shall be supported by physical purchases.
Crude
The recent bout of global uncertainty have pressurized 130.0
120.0
crude oil amid concern of double dip recession in the US 110.0
and global economy slipping into red. We expect crude oil 100.0
Oil & Gas prices have topped out in the interim and can only move 90.0
80.0
down from here on. We have seen some firmness in the 70.0
prices post the announcement of Greece bailout package, 60.0
31-May-2011
30-Sep-2010
31-Jan-2011
28-Feb-2011
31-Mar-2011
30-Jun-2011
30-Aug-2010
31-Dec-2010
30-Apr-2011
31-Aug-2011
31-Oct-2010
30-Nov-2010
31-Jul-2011
nevertheless, any such temporary uptick shall not be
sustained. Expect crude oil prices to be steady.
14
15. Product in Focus
Orion 4
Objective:
– To generate superior fixed income payoff (return) while preserving the capital.
– To generate appreciation even if the reference index is at (or above) 105% of its initial level.
Payoff Scenario:
– If final level is greater than or equal to strike level, then the structure pays an absolute coupon of 21% (annualized return of
13.56%).
– In case, if the final level is below the strike level, no coupon is paid out, but structure remains capital protected.
Nifty Digital Growth Product Specifications Payoff At Maturity
Reference Index S&P CNX Nifty Index If Final Level >= Strike Level Principal * (1 + Coupon)
Tenor 15 / 18 Months If Final Level < Strike Level Principal * (1 + 0%)
Coupon 21%
Strike Level 105% of Initial Level
Initial Level Reference Index as on Trade Date
(1/3)* Σ Reference Index(i); where
Final Level i=13M to 15M
15
16. Product in Focus
Pi - Multi Asset Quant Portfolio
• Pi is a multi-asset quantitative portfolio investing in Nifty, Gold, Crude oil and USDINR through liquid futures contracts in NSE and
MCX and other major exchanges
• Pi is managed using a well defined quantitative strategy with no human intervention in the execution of the strategy
• Pi is aimed at generating positive and consistent absolute returns through investing into assets with low correlations
• Investment horizon for investing in Pi is 24 months and above
Nifty Crude Oil Gold USD Pi
Average annual rolling returns 14% 19% 25% 2% 38%
Worst annual rolling returns -58% -54% 5% -13% 9%
Worst calendar quarterreturns -23% -61% -8% -2% -2%
• The average annual rolling returns of Pi are higher than its constituents –driven largely by the dynamic quantitative approach
• While most asset classes have significantly large negative annual rolling returns; Pi has minimum annual rolling return of 9%
(positive)
• The worst calendar quarter for most Nifty and crude oil have been as low as -23% and -61% respectively. For Pi the worst quarter
has been -2%
16
17. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
Strong pre-launch sales still keeps the developers far from The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the
any correction, though sales are down to alsmost 35% infrastructure development in these cities have made the
since last quarter, there is no correction visible. The over- residential development spread across the city limits. On
supplied locations are stagnant and would be similar for an average price is still affordable. Key development
the coming 2 quaters. Entry points anywhere from Rs. developer are seeing demand of 3BHK and luxury
3000 - Rs. 6000 per sqft in cities like Pune, NCR, development but are only doing well if the project size is
Residential Hyderabad, Chennai and Bangalore are still considred limited to 100-150 units. The trend seems to be favorable
lucarative by first time home -buyers depending on their since there is lot of Investor demand comes from smaller
usage. The retail investors (2nd home buyers) and HNI cities closer to these Tier-II & III cities. Excellent time to
investors vary or delaying their decision with expectation buy anything between Rs. 3000-3500 sqft with known
of correction. Mumbai stands still tall with prices on their developers.
peak in over-supplied market also. Correction again are
reported only on media and not on ground level.
Advice Price point entry is the key. Good time to sell. Time right to buy, look at 3-8 acre developments only
Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious expansion Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike Tier-I
approach by corporate, this segment has gone through the price differentiation is double favoring commercial
correction. Rates per sqft have seen almost 30% down- since most of them are in CBD areas.
trend and will be stagnant for the coming 2-3 quarters.
Commercial/IT
Surely, the segment is at the down-tip of the cycle, and is
the best opportunity for companies looking for long term
holding of real estate office space.
Advice Excellent time to buy smaller office spaces at CBD areas Space not defined well, depends on independent needs.
17
18. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets
sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are
seen a major transformation on all its business expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and
aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would
consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety, always have capital protected due to dearth of
Retail less innovation, existence with competition, available space..
maximizing bottom line than top-line approach have
been making the retailers smarter. Revenue share
model with a built in MG is how the deals are done
Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit
commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity
Land since it can be used as tangible and most credible
pledge against business
Advice Hold Land, if Owned Hold Land, if Owned
1. Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
2. Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
3. The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
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19. Why Karvy Private Wealth?
Open Architecture – Widest array of products
We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level :
• Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
• Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class
Intensive Research
We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines
truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio
Honest, unbiased advise
Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or
broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like
all banks do.
The KPW 3-S Service promise:
When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-
S Service Promise” :
• Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience
• Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking
• Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products
Pedigreed Senior Management Team
A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.
19
20. Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained
herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness
thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions
based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting
upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated
companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.
The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from
time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades,
if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of
shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All
employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.
The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult
their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once
the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments
Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited): Operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations.
Mumbai office Address: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051
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