The document provides an economic and market update and outlook for November 2012. It discusses recent performance and trends in global equity markets, the Indian economy and key sectors. The overall outlook is cautiously positive. The Indian economy is seen to have bottomed out, and further monetary easing and fiscal policy actions are expected to revive growth going forward. Private sector banks are favored over public sector banks based on better Q2 results.

1. ADVICE for the WISE
Newsletter – NOVEMBER 2012

2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 11
Forex 13
Commodities 14
Real Estate 15
2

3. From the Desk of the CIO…
Dear Investor,
October was month of consolidation in the equity markets as well as debt We are also changing our stance on long term debt from cautious to
markets. The monetary policy announcement from RBI was an important positive. This is in light of the absence of repo cut in RBI’s announcement
cause of both. On the equity front however, part of the consolidation was last month as well as its relatively mild tone regarding the future monetary
also driven by aggressive profit booking by retail investors. A curious trend policy stance. The expectation setting done by RBI regarding a rate cut to
that has become prevalent in recent weeks amongst retail investors has be feasible not before January next year also augers well for medium term
continued. This is the classic case of “once-bitten-twice-shy”. Many investors of long term debt. We believe that the long term debt securities
investors saw a precipitous fall in the value of their equity portfolios are likely to be fairly or cheaply priced for now and are thus poised for a
through 2011 and were relieved to see some of that reverse in 2012. As good rally through calendar year 2013 as monetary policy either eases or
equity markets scaled higher levels most retail investors rushed to sell their shows signs of easing.
holdings as the portfolio values reached at least their starting levels. Much
A pivotal event to watch out for in the month of November is the US
of this was also caused by the memory of the panic of 2008 when falling
presidential election results. We expect that the re-election of President
markets left investors with limited opportunity to exit in time.
Obama would keep global investors in the current state of risk appetite –
The trend is curious since the underlying economic factors were probably cautiously positive. However, should Mr. Romney be elected, the effect on
at their worst in Indian economy a few months ago and have only improved risk assets globally is likely to be negative in the short run. This is because
since. Earlier this year, a combination of policy logjam, high commodities of the explicitly anti-loose-monetary-policy stand of the Republican
prices, persistent inflation, falling rupee, tight monetary policy and a candidate. Many experts expect him to reverse the loose monetary policy
constant barrage of scandals meant the growth expectations in Indian of the US Fed and also potentially end QE-III (which the reader might recall
economy were repeatedly revised downwards. Also all of this was is an ongoing $20bn-a-month mortgage—backed-securities purchase
happening against a fairly worrisome global context – with problems in program of US Fed). We are not sure if he would jump to do that
economies across Eurozone, China, US and Japan. A lot of positive changes immediately and hence the effects on markets might be short-term.
have happened since then – both within and outside India. This is aptly However, if he indeed takes these extreme steps, risk appetite might
reflected in the equity market valuations as well. However, this upward plunge globally. Also if this development has adverse effect on the US
revision of valuations and risk appetite seems limited to institutional economy in terms of slowdown of the already feeble growth, equity
investors. Retail investors seem to have ignored the change in markets in US and globally may face strong headwinds in the medium term
fundamentals and have focused merely on absolute market levels. We as well.
believe this would seriously limit the actual wealth building they can expect
to do from equity investing and thus advise strongly against it.
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.18”

4. Economic Update - Snapshot of
Key Markets
120 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225
As on 31st Change over Change over 115
110
Oct 2012 last month last year 105
100
95
BSE Sensex 18505 (1.4%) 4.5% 90
85
Equity S&P Nifty 5620 (1.5%) 5.5% 80
Markets S&P 500 1412 (2.0%) 12.7% 9.50
10 yr Gsec
9.00
Nikkei 225 8928 0.7% (0.7%) 8.50
8.00
7.50
10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.22% (7 bps) (66 bps)
Debt Markets Call Markets 8.04% 1 bps (50 bps) 33000 Gold
32000
Fixed Deposit* 8.50% 50 bps (75 bps) 31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
RICI Index 3666 (4.2%) (1.9%) 25000
Commodity
Gold (`/10gm) 30931 (1.0%) 13.7%
Markets 60
58 `/$
Crude Oil ($/bbl) 109.9 (1.3%) 1.3% 56
54
52
50
48
46
44
Forex Rupee/Dollar 54.12 (2.62%) (9.7%) 42
40
Markets Yen/Dollar 79.64 (2.2%) (4.9%)
• Indicates SBI one-year FD
4
•New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)

5. Economy Update - Global
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in September, improved again
in October. The Index now stands at 72.2, up from 68.4 in September.
US
• The U.S. unemployment report before the presidential election showed a jobless rate that rose to 7.9%
in October from 7.8% in September. The number of jobs in the economy rose by a healthy 171,000.
• The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.4 in October 2012, from 46.1 in
September. The manufacturing sector opened the final quarter of 2012 on a disappointing footing, as the
Europe downturn in the sector gathered pace.
• Eurozone’s unemployment rate for month of September came in at 11.6% slightly above 11.5% in August.
Euro zone unemployment has reached highest level since 1995.
• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 46.9 in October, down from 48.0 in September signaling
further deterioration in the performance of the Japanese manufacturing sector. The fall back in the
headline PMI to an 18-month low during October was disappointing in the context of last month’s slight
Japan rise.
• Japan's industrial output contracted by 4.1% in September from August and 8.1% from a year earlier as
automakers and steel mills cut production due to shrinking demand and antagonisms with China
• China’s HSBC PMI inched slightly higher to 49.5 in October from 47.9 in September signaling a full year of
monthly deteriorations in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions. However, with the PMI at
Emerging an eight-month high, the latest data indicated the rate of deterioration was marginal.
economies • India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 52.9 in October, broadly unchanged from the
reading of 52.8 in September, and signaling a further improvement in the health of the manufacturing
sector.
5

6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
10.0%
8.0% IIP
6.0% • India's economic growth languished near its slowest in three
4.0%
2.0% years in the quarter that ended in June but was slightly better
0.0% than expected. India's quarterly GDP grew 5.5 percent, driven
-2.0%
-4.0%
by a rebound in construction and financial services, just above
-6.0% the 5.3% posted in the three months ended in March. Also it is
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 much lower compared to 8% GPD growth in the same quarter
last financial year. This is the lowest Q1 performance in a
decade, because of falling activity in manufacturing, mining and
quarrying.
• The industrial output for August 2012 grew by 2.7% against drop of
(‐) 0.2% (revised figure) recorded in the month of July 2012, • Despite all this, there is a silver lining by way of a sequential
after several months of stagnant and even declining growth. It's a uptrend in the growth rate. After continuous reduction in the
modest figure alright but the biggest year-on-year rise this fiscal, growth rate in successive quarters beginning in the fourth
and seems to suggest a turnaround in growth. It is true that growth quarter of 2010-11, this is the first time when quarterly growth
of capital goods production remains negative year-on-year and very rate has exceeded the growth rate in the previous quarter.
much in the doldrums. Revised government revised the July output
9.0 8.4
and it fell by 0.2%. 8.3
8.0
7.8 7.7 GDP growth
• The better than expected IIP growth came due to better growth in
6.9
the manufacturing, mining and electricity posted growth of 2.9%, 7.0
2.0% and 1.9%, respectively. 6.1
6.0 5.5
5.3
• The August IIP figures show that manufacturing, with 75.5% weight
5.0
in the index, has grown a credible 2.9%. But note that for April-
August, the growth in manufactures is actually zero. 4.0
FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1)
6

7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
25.0%
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs  The government’s diesel price raise has pushed wholesale
23.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits price index-based inflation to its highest level this fiscal at
21.0% 7.81% in September as prices of wheat, cereals and diesel
19.0% soared. Inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index
17.0% (WPI), was 7.55% in August. In September last year,
15.0% however, it was 10%. Inflation for July was revised upwards
13.0%
to 7.52%, from 6.87% as per provisional estimates.
11.0%
9.0%
 The index for 'Food Articles' group rose by 0.6% & the index
7.0%
for 'Non-Food Articles' group declined by 2.1%. Inflation in
5.0%
manufactured items rose to 6.24% in September, the highest
in this financial year. Part of it came through higher
processed food prices, as inflation here rose to 9.76% in
 As on 31st September 2012, Bank credits grew by 13% on a Y-o-Y September from 9.01%, due to a spurt in the prices of sugar
basis which is 10% lower than the growth witnessed in and edible oils.
September 2011. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at
10.2%, viz-a viz a growth of 21.3% in September 2011.  India's annual consumer price inflation fell in September to
9.73 percent, driven by a marginal fall in fuel and food prices
 On 30th October 2012, Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate- from a 10.03% (final) for the month of August 2012.
the key policy rate-unchanged in its mid quarter monetary policy 10.0%
review, however it cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points 9.5% Wholesale Price Index
9.0%
to 4.25%. The 25-basis point cut in CRR is expected to release
8.5%
around Rs 17,500 crore into the system.
8.0%
7.5%
 The RBI explained the CRR reduction as a forward-looking
7.0%
measure to address the liquidity pressures expected to arise
6.5%
in the near term on account of the seasonal pickup in credit
6.0%
growth in the second half of the fiscal year; and increase in
currency demand related to the onset of the festive season in
India. 7
* End of period figures

8. Equity Outlook
Economy has Bottomed Out
Global equity markets consolidated in the month of October while waiting for the US residential election results. FII’s continued to prefer
India over other emerging markets with further investments of USD 2 billion in October taking the year till date number to USD 18 billion.
In India, RBI continued to ease monetary policy though the instrument chosen was CRR. RBI reduced CRR by 25bps in October review. This
will release 17,500 crores of additional liquidity in the system. The expected inflation number at end of FY13 has been raised to 7.5% from 7%
earlier. Economic growth continues to weaken globally. While acknowledging that ‘Indian economy continues to be sluggish held down by
stalled investments, weakening consumption and declining exports’, RBI wants to wait for recently announced government policy measures
to be implemented before it changes its stance on monetary policy. The full year GDP growth guidance has been lowered to 5.8% from 6.5%
earlier. We believe that the current steps taken by the Government on the fiscal front will give RBI the necessary cushion to carry out rate
cuts in the coming quarters. As interest rates come down, corporate investment cycle will revive leading to a bounce back in economic
growth. We expect a further 50 bps cut in repo rate this fiscal although it may happen only in January 2013 when core inflation is expected to
fall below 5%.
The IIP number of 2.7% for August was a positive surprise indicating an improvement in industrial activity. Manufacturing growth also inched
up in October from September’s 10-month low, supported by a pick-up in new orders and an easing of price pressures pointing to an
improvement in the key sector. This combined with a rebound in auto and cement sales numbers indicate that economy has bottomed out
and we would see a revival in GDP growth going forward.
Q2 result season has commenced. Healthcare, FMCG and private sector banks have reported results that are mostly better than market
expectations. Public sector banks continue to show stress on the asset quality front. We maintain our positive view on domestic consumption
theme and private sector banks on good Q2 results. In the next few months, we might several more actions on the fiscal policy side which will
help in reviving growth. Investors should increase allocation to equity at every-dip.
8

9. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to
increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better
BFSI Overweight management quality and higher balance sheet discipline.
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as
the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable
FMCG Overweight
incomes.
Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also
Automobiles Overweight getting cheaper. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to
lesser competition and higher pricing power.
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
Healthcare Neutral
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. However, the government policy of putting price
control on selected drugs might cause some short term pressure on stock prices.
The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the
sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive
E&C Neutral
on this space.
9

10. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability
levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and
Telecom Equalweight
we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a strong
view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.
Cement Equalweight
We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in earnings
Power Utilities Equalweight and decent return on capital.
With the US and European customers of Indian IT companies are struggling, Order inflows might slow
IT/ITES Underweight down in near term. Most companies are loosing pricing power due to high competitive intensity.
Rupee appreciation will put pressure on margins in the near term
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Underweight economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth
Metals Underweight in China and developed parts of the world.
10

11. Debt Outlook
8.5
Yield curve 9.10
10-yr G-sec yield
8.4 8.90
8.3 8.70
8.2
(%)
(%)
8.50
8.1 8.30
8.0 8.10
7.9 7.90
7.8 7.70
7.7 7.50
1.6
0.0
0.8
2.4
3.2
4.0
4.9
5.7
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.9
9.7
10.5
11.3
12.1
12.9
13.7
14.5
15.3
16.1
16.9
17.7
18.5
19.4
• The 10-year benchmark G-sec yield fell marginally by 7 bps to 8.22%, during the month October 2012.
• RBI has maintained its stance of focusing more on inflation in the Inflation growth trade-off stating that ‘Managing
inflationary expectations must remain the primary focus of monetary policy.’ The expected inflation number at end of
FY13 has been raised to 7.5% from 7% earlier.
• The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond decreased to 78 bps on 31st October 2012 from 82 Bps(as on 28th Sept 2012).
The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9% on 31st October 2012.
11

12. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with a 25 bps CRR
cut in October 2012 Monetary Policy and trend reversal of the interest rates
which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, we would recommend
Short Tenure investment in short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be
Debt aggressive and early too ( Next probable cut in the Quarter Jan-March 2013).
Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge
borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still
have high YTMs (9%–9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the
current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also.
Credit Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the
spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with a 25 bps CRR cut
in October 2012 Monetary Policy and trend reversal of the interest rates which
started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, and signals of future cuts in the policy
rates in the coming quarter, we would recommend to start investing in the
Long Tenure
Longer term papers and hold on to the current investments as well. These,
Debt while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital
appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable
for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting
when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the
longer term.
12

13. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) 60
Trade balance and export-import data 0
0.50% Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
0.01% 40 -5000
0.00% -10000
20
-15000
-0.50% 0 -20000
-1.00% -20 -25000
-1.50%
-1.57%
-2.00% Exports during September, 2012 were valued at US $ 23.69 bn
-2.50% which was 10.8% lower than the level of US $ 26.6 bn during
September, 2011. Imports during September, 2012 were valued
-3.00% -2.62%
-2.85% at US $ 41.78 Bn representing a negative growth of 5.09% over
USD GBP EURO YEN the level of imports valued at US $ 39.75 Bn in September, 2011
• INR has depreciated against three major currencies. INR translating into a trade deficit of $18.08 Bn.
depreciated by 2.6% against the US Dollar. Rupee has depreciated 140000
Capital Account Balance
against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year by 1.57%
90000
• Growth and inflation worries in India keeps Indian currency rate
under pressure. After starting July with strong gains, the rally 40000
started to fizzle out towards the second half but ended the month
with an appreciation.
-10000 FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
• INR has depreciated more than 9 percent in over 12 month's • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised
period on weak economic and fiscal conditions. The adverse from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised
balance of payments, in which capital flows have been insufficient downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.
to fund the current account deficit, remains the core reason for • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more
this sharp depreciation. investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs
would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in
the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
13

14. Commodities
33000 Gold
We continue to maintain our bullish stance on gold on a 32000
medium to longer time frame following the bond 31000
Precious purchase program of ECB and easy liquidity regime. While 30000
the gold in USD terms continue to move higher, rupee 29000
Metals denominated gold went into consolidation phase 28000
following a sharp rise in rupee, thereby keeping domestic 27000
prices under the lid. Having said that, gold is entering into
26000
its seasonally best quarter and one can expect only prices
25000
to go north. The current consolidation phase should be
used to accumulate for the long term.
140
Crude
130
120
As the central bankers across the world pumping liquidity 110
into the system, oil prices are unlikely to see any major 100
Oil & Gas fall. Combined. Oil prices are likely to be firmer after an
90
industry report showed stockpiles shrank to the lowest in
more than five months in the U.S., the world’s biggest 80
crude consumer. Expect prices to move higher. 70
60

15. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence
coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and
shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have
Prices surged since last quarter, factors being
seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user
largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring
transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore,
first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,
Residential Chennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2
Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh
quarters now. With new supply being announced every month,
highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft
the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these
range
markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a
good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well
under 1500 sqft)
Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends
Very less benchmarks available but the rents are
getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. Mumbai
Commercial/IT growing 8-10% every year for commercial
still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small
properties in Tier-II cities
office spaces from investors
15

16. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have
been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is well
Hi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated
awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in major
beaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing a
Retail cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupied
re-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial
and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment in
offices, call centers, super-market etc
prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up
of FDI.
Land has given better appreciation in these markets than
30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own land
Land expensive month on month. Interest from investors has property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming
drawn lot of attention in well connected areas. areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land
valuable
Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
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Open Architecture – Widest array of products
We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level :
• Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
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Intensive Research
We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines
truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio
Honest, unbiased advise
Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or
broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like
all banks do.
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When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-
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• Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience
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Pedigreed Senior Management Team
A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.
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18. Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group
companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on
their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any
information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of
Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.
The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to
time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that
they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other
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restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.
The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their
respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new
Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments
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