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ADVICE for the WISE


     Newsletter – APRIL 2013




                               1
Contents


Index                        Page No.

Economic Update                   4

Equity Outlook                    8

Debt Outlook                     11

Forex                             13

Commodities                       14

Real Estate                      15




                                        2
From the Desk of the CIO…
         Dear Investors,
         The Cypriot hiccup caused a lot of anxiety to investors around the world                          health of their banks. The issue of a bailout and a subsequent bank-run in
         through March. While the scale of the problem in Cyprus is quite small                            anticipation of losses to depositors then is not quite pressing. However, if
         vis-à-vis the Euro-zone economy, the spirit of the deal made investors                            some concerns were to emerge in the short term in one of the larger
         wonder if something similar might happen in the bigger economies in the                           Euro-zone countries, the current climate is quite explosive and conducive
         troubled periphery. The depositors taking a hit of the bank failure was                           for a messy round of bank failures. ECB has taken note of that and has
         indeed a first. Part of the reason ECB proposed the deal in its original form                     postured adequately to ward off such self-fulfilling prophecies.
         was political. With the well-known Russian links Cyprus in not quite a                            Domestically, RBI obliged the investors and borrowers alike by reducing
         poster-boy for good governance. The idea of bailing out Cypriot banks for                         the repo rate by 25 bps. However, what it gave in rate cut, it took away in
         most Euro area common people (especially German) simply translates                                the hawkish tone of the policy. In a country full of edgy investors, this
         into spending their honest money to make good the losses of the Russian                           hawkishness was enough to make them push up bond yields. We continue
         black-money hoarders. The bailout then understandably required a                                  to believe that with decelerating inflation RBI will have sufficient room for
         suitable indicator of the sternness of the saviors. As things evolved, the                        further rate cuts this year.
         deal was later ‘sweetened’ to avoid losses for the small depositors.                              The most important domestic development was DMK walking out of the
         However, the damage to the perception of Euro-zone fire-fighting efforts                          government thus making the latter fully dependent on outside support for
         was already done by then.                                                                         survival. The political uncertainty went up sharply with this development.
         It is not hard to understand the corollary some experts are drawing from                          There is relative calm for now on this front. However, the guessing games
         this. If Cypriot bank bailout requires the depositors to take part of the hit,                    have begun regarding election timing, prime ministerial candidates, third
         a similar principle might apply in future to a bailout in say Portugal or                         front and so on. The environment of uncertainty has made many wonder
         Italy. If the Portuguese or Italian savers also think similarly now, they                         if the government will have the flexibility or even the willingness to push
         would be inclined to take money out of the banks in their respective                              the much-needed reforms. The actual reforms might not amount to
         countries and move it to north Europe before trouble begins. That would                           much. The pessimism amongst corporate captains owing to this however
         then make the financial health of the southern banks worse – thus                                 is real and the effect of that on the continued lack of investments is quite
         precipitating the very crisis they feared. We believe this fear is overblown.                     corrosive for growth. The prime minister and the finance minister have
         The Euro area banks have been strengthened through repeated rounds of                             tried to talk up the sentiments. The jury is still out though on whether the
         capitalization, stress tests and active government support. It is not hard to                     pessimism has deepened or reduced.
         imagine that Euro area depositors are not worried about the financial
                                                                                                                                                                                                     3
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 18”
Economic Update - Snapshot of
                                    Key Markets
                                                                                                                135             Sensex   Nifty         S&P 500   Nikkei 225

                                                   As on   28th      Change over          Change over           125
                                                                                                                115
                                                   Mar 2013           last month            last year           105
                                                                                                                 95
                         BSE Sensex                   18836             (0.14%)               8.23%              85
                                                                                                                 75

       Equity            S&P Nifty                     5683             (0.18%)               7.31%
       Markets           S&P 500                       1569              3.60%                11.41%
                                                                                                              9.30
                         Nikkei 225                   12398              7.25%                22.95%          8.80
                                                                                                              8.30
                                                                                                              7.80                               10 yr Gsec
                                                                                                              7.30
                                                                                                              6.80

                         10-yr G-Sec Yield            7.95%               8 Bps              (64 bps)
   Debt Markets          Call Markets                14.66%             681 Bps              523 Bps
                                                                                                                     33000   Gold
                                                                                                                     32000
                         Fixed Deposit*               8.75%               0 Bps              (50 bps)                31000
                                                                                                                     30000
                                                                                                                     29000
                                                                                                                     28000
                                                                                                                     27000
                         RICI Index                    3707              (0.4%)               (2.8%)                 26000


     Commodity           Gold (`/10gm)                29426              (0.3%)                4.8%
      Markets                                                                                                         60
                                                                                                                                                 `/$
                         Crude Oil ($/bbl)           108.45              (3.3%)              (12.1%)                  58
                                                                                                                      56
                                                                                                                      54
                                                                                                                      52
                                                                                                                      50
                                                                                                                      48
                                                                                                                      46

         Forex           Rupee/Dollar                  54.4             (1.13%)              (6.15%)                  44
                                                                                                                      42
                                                                                                                      40

       Markets           Yen/Dollar                   94.16              (2.5%)              (12.6%)
• Indicates SBI one-year FD                                                                                                                              4
•New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)
Economy Update - Global
            • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved in February, declined in March.
              The Index now stands at 59.7 (1985=100), down from 68.0 in February.
   US       • the Department of Commerce announced that the US economy grew at a faster than expected 0.4% in
              the fourth quarter of 2012,. The annualized figure was better than an earlier estimate of 0.1% growth,
              reflecting increased investments in plant and equipment.


            • The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped in March 2013 to 46.8 from 47.9
              witnessed in February 2013. The Eurozone manufacturing sector is fallen in the first quarter, with an
              acceleration in the rate of decline in March raising the risk that the downturn may also intensify in the
 Europe       second quarter also.
            • Cyprus reached a deal with international lenders for a 10bn euro bailout under which the country’s
              second-largest bank, Laiki, will be restructured and holders of bank deposits of more than 1 lakh euros
              will have to take losses.


            • Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 50.4 in March 2013 up from 48.5 in February 2013. This
              was the first reading above the critic al 50.0 no-change mark since May 2012. A rebound in output and
  Japan       new orders exerted the main positive influence on the latest PMI reading.
            • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came at 4.3% in February 2013, up from 4.2% in January
              2013.

            • China’s HSBC PMI posted a reading of 51.6 in March 2013, up from 50.4 in February 2013., signaling a
              modest improvement in the Chinese manufacturing sector.
            • Consumer prices in China rose to 3.2% in February 2013 from a year earlier and much higher from
 Emerging     January's 2.0%.
economies   • India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) posted 52.0 in March 2013 down from 54.2 in February
              2013, signaling a slowdown in output growth on the back of a deceleration in new orders and power
              outages.
                                                                                                                          5
Economy Outlook - Domestic
10.0%
 8.0%                                                                                       • The country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 10-year
 6.0%                                  IIP                                                    low of 4.5% during the third quarter of the current financial
 4.0%                                                                                         year, hurt by a slowdown in agriculture, mining and
 2.0%                                                                                         manufacturing, pushing the projected annual growth rate down
 0.0%                                                                                         further. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 6%
-2.0%                                                                                         in the same period of last fiscal.
-4.0%
-6.0%                                                                                       • The economic growth in the first nine months of this fiscal
        Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar Apr 12 May Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov Dec 12 Jan 13
                      12         12                                     12                    (April-December) stood at 5%. The manufacturing sector grew
                                                                                              an annual 2.5% during the quarter while farm output rose just
                                                                                              1.1% & mining fell by 1.4%.
• Industrial production inched up 2.4% mainly on account of good
  show by manufacturing and power sectors. However, during this
                                                                                            • The Industrial sector slightly rebounded to 3.3% during the
  fiscal so far it has contracted in six out of ten months. As a
                                                                                              quarter from 2.7% y-o-y in the June quarter and 2.6% in the
  consequence the cumulative industrial output growth for the April-
                                                                                              corresponding quarter of the previous year. India’s GDP growth
  Jan period is a paltry 0.9%, down from 3.4% in the same period of
                                                                                              pegged at 6.1%-6.7% for FY14; FY13 growth seen 5.0%. India's
  2011-12.
                                                                                              key eight core sector growth expands 3.9% in January following
                                                                                              2.5% growth in December.
• Manufacturing sector grew at 2.7% in January 2013 after
  contracting for the previous two months. Weak consumption and
                                                                                            8.0     7.8      7.7
  investment demand on the domestic front and sluggish exports on
                                                                                            7.5
  the external front has hit the manufacturing sector hard. Output of                                                 6.9                         GDP growth
                                                                                            7.0
  11 out of 22 manufacturing industry groups at a 2-digit
                                                                                            6.5                                6.1
  classification contracted in January 2013.
                                                                                            6.0
                                                                                                                                                 5.5
                                                                                            5.5                                         5.3               5.3
• Output of the eight core infra industries having nearly 38% weight
                                                                                            5.0
  in IIP, grew by 3.9% in January 2013 as compared to 2.5% a month                                                                                                 4.5
                                                                                            4.5
  ago. The infra industries that witnessed negative growth in January
                                                                                            4.0
  2013 were crude oil, natural gas, fertilizers and cement.                                       FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3)
                                                                                                                                                                            6
Economic Outlook - Domestic
21.0%
            Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs                            The headline inflation picked up in February on higher fuel costs
                                                                            but another measure of price pressures cooled, WPI, the main
19.0%                        Bank Credit       Aggregate Deposits
                                                                            inflation indicator, rose an annual 6.84% in February. The annual
17.0%
                                                                            reading for December was revised up to 7.31% from 7.18%. The
15.0%

13.0%
                                                                            non-food manufacturing inflation, which the central bank uses to
11.0%
                                                                            gauge demand-driven price pressures, slowed to 3.8% in February
 9.0%
                                                                            from 4.1% a month ago.
 7.0%
                                                                           The CPI data tracks retail prices in five major food groups -fuel and
 5.0%
                                                                            light, housing, clothing and miscellaneous - across rural and urban
                                                                            India, providing a comprehensive reference point for the Reserve
                                                                            Bank of India (RBI) to take effective monetary policy measures to
                                                                            deal with inflation.
   As on Feb 2013 Bank credits grew by 16.3% on a Y-o-Y basis
    which is about 0.6% higher than the growth witnessed in Feb            India's annual inflation rate, based on all India general Consumer
    2012. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 12.8%, viz-a          Price Index, or CPI, as per base year 2010, for February 2013 came
    viz a growth of 14.4% in Feb 2012.                                      in at 10.91%, higher than the preceding month's 10.79%. The retail
                                                                            inflation for the month under review remained in the double-digit
   In keeping with the guidance and an increasingly benign stance,         territory for third month in a row, due to higher prices of
    RBI reduced the repo rate by 25 bps to 7.50% in its monetary            vegetables, cereals, edible oil, and protein-based items.
    policy as of 19th March 2013. While doing so, it also emphasized            Wholesale Price Index
                                                                         8.0%
    that supporting growth is going to be a priority in days ahead. It   7.8%
                                                                         7.6%
    kept the others rates viz CRR and SLR unchanged.                     7.4%
                                                                         7.2%
                                                                         7.0%
   The key triggers favoring the rate cut seem to be lower              6.8%
    trajectory of WPI and core inflation, lower GDP data than            6.6%
                                                                         6.4%
    anticipated and of course the government’s intent to rein in the     6.2%
                                                                         6.0%
    fiscal deficit.


                                                                                                                                                    7
   * End of period figures
Equity Outlook
The month of March saw political uncertainty with DMK withdrawing support from the UPA government. The government survives with
outside support from UP based regional parties SP and BSP. While the government remains stable for now, it is difficult to predict the political
events in the next few months. Equity markets have turned volatile with concerns about the recently unveiled reform measures. However,
the government has continued with the monthly hike in diesel prices. If price hikes continue for auto fuels, it will lead to easing of pressure on
fiscal deficit front.

RBI has taken cognizance of these fiscal consolidation measures and continued with monetary easing with 25bps cut in repo rates in the
march review. RBI has maintained its focus on reviving growth while highlighting that ‘even as the policy stance emphasizes addressing the
growth risks, the headroom for further monetary easing remains quite limited.’ While headline wholesale price inflation and its core
component, non-food manufactured products inflation have softened, the consumer price inflation continues to be at elevated levels. RBI
believes that the onus of reviving the investment cycle lies with the government stating that the ’government has a critical role to play in this
regard by remaining committed to fiscal consolidation, easing the supply bottlenecks and improving governance surrounding project
implementation.’

The key risk factor for Indian markets in FY14 remains the political stability and the government’s ability to push through fiscal consolidation.
It is important that some of the key reform measures like Goods and Services Tax (GST) and diesel & kerosene price deregulation are pushed
through by the government. RBI might also find it difficult to carry out the necessary rate cuts if inflationary pressures don’t abate.

We witnessed one of the best quarters for FII inflows in Q1 of 2013 with total inflows crossing 10 billion dollars. While Indian markets
corrected, developed markets rallied sharply on hopes of economic revival this year. With US economy bouncing back and improvement in
unemployment number, Global situation remains benign and conducive to equity markets in 2013. Indian equity markets have significantly
underperformed global equity this quarter. Several high quality stocks have corrected sharply. With macros on the mend, we believe that the
correct correction is overdone and should be used to build a long term equity portfolio.
                                                                                                                                                     8
Sector View
  Sector       Stance                                                   Remarks


                          The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to
   BFSI      Overweight   increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to
                          better management quality and higher balance sheet discipline


                          We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such
  FMCG       Overweight   as Cigarettes, IT hardware, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be
                          disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.


                          Demand seems to be coming back in Europe. US volume growth has also remained resilient. With
 IT/ITES     Overweight
                          pricing already bottomed out, we have turned positive on the space.



                          We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
                          generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare   Overweight
                          developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
                          pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth.



                          The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the
   E&C        Neutral     sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive
                          on this space.

                                                                                                                                   9
Sector View
    Sector          Stance                                                 Remarks


                                The regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures seem to be reducing. Incumbents have started
   Telecom          Neutral
                                to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.



                                Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also
Automobiles         Neutral     getting cheaper. We are more bullish on SUV’s and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser
                                competition and higher pricing power.

                                With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSU’s
   Energy           Neutral     will come down during the course of the year. We are turning more constructive on the space
                                now.

                                We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in
Power Utilities     Neutral
                                earnings and decent return on capital.


                                Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about
   Metals         Underweight
                                growth in China and developed parts of the world.


                                Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a
   Cement         Underweight
                                strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.


                                                                                                                                  10
Debt Outlook
      8.4
                           Yield curve                                                            10-yr G-sec yield
                                                                                  9.30
      8.2
                                                                                  8.80
      8.0
(%)




                                                                            (%)
      7.8                                                                         8.30



      7.6                                                                         7.80



      7.4                                                                         7.30


      7.2                                                                         6.80
             3.2


             5.7
             0.0
             0.8
             1.6
             2.4

             4.0
             4.9

             6.5
             7.3
             8.1
             8.9
             9.7
            10.5
            11.3
            12.1
            12.9
            13.7
            14.5
            15.3
            16.1
            16.9
            17.7
            18.5
            19.4
  • The Gsec market started the last week of the fiscal on a bearish note on political uncertainties and 10 year benchmark yield
    touched 7.99%. But on 28th March, the G-Sec market closed better on value buying and on measures, such as additional and
    special LAF, by RBI to tackle current liquidity tightness. It was the last day of trading for this fiscal and bonds bid FY13 farewell on
    a positive note. The benchmark 10-year security 8.15% GOI 2022 closed the week at 7.95% with a 8 Bps rise during March 2013.

  • India's fiscal deficit in Apr-Feb, the first eleven months of the current financial year, rose 2.8% on year to Rs 5.074 lakh cr; fiscal
    deficit was Rs 41680 cr in February versus Rs 58600 cr a year ago.

  • The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond reduced to 89 Bps on 28TH March 2013 from 104 Bps(as on 28th Feb 2013).
    AAA Rated bond yields dipped by 6 bps to 8.85% as compared to the yields a month earlier at 8.91%.




                                                                                                                                               11
Debt Strategy
  Category     Outlook                                             Details
                         With the third policy rate cut that happened in Feb 2013, with a 25 Bps cut in
                         Repo rate and no CRR along with lesser probability of future cuts in the policy
                         rates in the coming quarter, but as there is influence of global factors in the
Short Tenure             market, a lot of uncertainty is coupled with it, hence, we would recommend
   Debt                  to invest in and hold on to current investments in short term debt Due to
                         liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan,
                         short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs
                         (9%–9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities.


                         Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current
                         yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity
   Credit                in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry
                         at current levels attractive.




                         Indian long term debt is likely to see capital appreciation owing to the expected
                         monetary easing. With the third policy rate cut happening in March 2013, with
                         a 25 Bps cut in Repo and no CRR along with lesser probability of future cuts in
                         the policy rates in the coming quarter, but along with this is a lot of uncertainty
Long Tenure
                         in the market and hence would recommend to hold on to the current
   Debt                  investments in the Longer term papers. These papers are suitable for both -
                         investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when
                         prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the
                         longer term.

                                                                                                               12
Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M)                                     Trade balance and export-import data
                                                                             30                                                                                       0
                                                                                                 Export           Import           Trade Balance (mn $)
 2.0%                                                                        20                                                                                       -5000
                                            1.6%
                                                                             10                                                                                       -10000
 1.5%
                                                                              0                                                                                       -15000

 1.0%                                                       0.8%            -10                                                                                       -20000
                                                                            -20                                                                                       -25000
 0.5%

 0.0%

-0.5%                                                                        Exports during Feb, 2013 were valued at US $ 26.26 bn which was
                                                                             4.23% higher than the level of US $ 25.19 bn during Feb, 2012.
-1.0%                                                                        Imports during Feb, 2013 were valued at US $ 41.18 Bn
                            -0.9%
-1.5%
             -1.1%                                                           representing a negative growth of 2.65% over the level of
             USD             GBP            EURO            YEN
                                                                             imports valued at US $ 40.12 Bn in Feb 2012 translating into a
                                                                             trade deficit of $14.92 Bn.
                                                                           140000
                                                                                                                   Capital Account Balance
• INR has appreciated against two major currencies other than USD
  & GBP. INR depreciated by 1.1% against the US Dollar. Rupee has           90000
  appreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year
  by 0.81%. The rupee started the year at 50.88 a dollar and ended
                                                                            40000
  at 54.28 a dollar. It touched its all-time low of 57.33 a dollar on 22
  June.
                                                                           -10000
                                                                                    FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
• The fall of the rupee in fiscal year 2013 created many trends in the
  market. For one, the rupee’s neo-normal exchange rate was                • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised
  established at above 50 a dollar. It also forced importers and             from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised
  borrowers of foreign currency loans to hedge their exposure                downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.
                                                                           • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more
• Volatility as last year is expected to continue as the rupee would         investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs
  track cues from the domestic markets as well as global shores. If          would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in
  US economy recovers, the dollar will rally, putting the rupee under        the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
  pressure
                                                                                                                                                                               13
Commodities
            Having risen consecutively for eleven years, dollar-gold price performance
            is one of the best among other asset classes, generating an annualized         33000

            return of 18%. The global financial system was flood with central banks
                                                                                           32000   Gold
            liquidity that had risen risk asset in the year 2012 and this is expected to
            further lift risk asset prices in the year 2013. Given this backdrop, one      31000
            could expect a decent profit booking on the precious metal counter as the
Precious    money flow shall now be diverted to equities that was under owned since        30000
            2008. We also expect liquidity to dry up significantly around end of 1QCY
 Metals     following the ECB’s LTROs amid a sharp pull back in dollar index -following    29000

            the Fed’s signal to wind down the stimulus program this year - could
                                                                                           28000
            rattle global commodity prices. The controlled measures by the central
            bankers to curb gold demand with a prime objective being to shore up
                                                                                           27000
            confidence in the monetary and banking system, bullion in all probability
            will not be a free market. As bullion derivatives market is far larger than    26000
            the size of physical metal, a small trigger is sufficient enough to create a
            big impact. Domestically, it now seems that gold has formed an
            intermediate top and one could see consider price pull back going ahead
            in the year 2013.


                                                                                           130

            The expectation of steadier global growth is a good news for the               120            Crude
            oil counter given the excess liquidity available. There is no
                                                                                           110
            evidence of oil shortage and given the ample supply coupled with
            the decent growth prospects, we expect oil to remain firmer.                   100

Oil & Gas   While China is expected to stage a good performance this year is               90

            positive for the oil market, the signal coming from the Fed on                 80
            unwinding of the stimulus program this year, keep a lid on the
                                                                                           70
            prices. As the risk of oil spike has subsided considerably, the
            upside on this counter looks capped.                                           60




                                                                                                                  14
Real Estate Outlook

 Asset Classes                                        Tier I                                                                     Tier II
                 A lot of new supply has been seen in the Tier I markets across all price
                 segments, especially in NCR-Delhi and Mumbai, owing to faster approvals and
                 expectations of a sales recovery due to the reduction in the home loan
                 interest rates.

                 While some of the new launches have selectively seen a good response,
                 overall sales have still been slow and prices continued to be stagnant in most      Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend towards
                 markets.                                                                            nuclear families, increasing disposable income, rising
                                                                                                     aspiration to own quality products and the growth in
Residential      Mid-income residential segment with Rs. 4,000 – 6,000 per sq. ft. entry             infrastructure facilities in these cities. Price appreciation is
                 pricing with good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and Mumbai suburbs             more concentrated to specific micro-markets in these cities.
                 are expected to see good percentage returns with relatively low risk.               Cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,
                                                                                                     Nagpur, Patna and Cochin are expected to perform well.
                 Implications of Budget 2013: The additional one-time tax exemption of Rs.
                 1,00,000 for home loans below Rs. 25 Lacs is expected to give a slight push in
                 the affordable housing segment. TDS of 1% on all properties above Rs. 50 lacs
                 after May 2013 and increase in service tax from 3.09% to 3.71% for flats above
                 2,000 sq. ft. in size or Rs. 1 Cr. in value may act as dampeners for sale of mid
                 to high end residential space.
                 Prices for the commercial asset class continue to be dampened due to the
                 historic oversupply. In terms of absorption, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune
                 markets are doing better than the national average.

                 Rentals in commercial asset class are seen to be rising slowly but they are still   Relatively low unsold inventory and smaller unit sizes have
                 below the peal values achieved in the past. In relative terms, Bangalore            led to stable lease rentals in Tier II cities. Not much
Commercial/IT
                 market has outperformed other markets owing primarily to the demand from            movement in the capital values has been seen in the Tier II
                 the IT industry.                                                                    cities.

                 Specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger lock-in
                 periods continue to be good investment opportunities over a long-term
                 horizon.                                                                                                                                               15
Real Estate Outlook

Asset Classes                               Tier I                                                           Tier II

                In HY2 2012, Government approved 51% foreign
                ownership in multi-brand retail and 100% in single-brand         Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared
                retail. While this move is expected to infuse new                to mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these
                enthusiasm in the sector, it will take a gestation period of     rentals gets reported, these are expected to have been
                at least an year for this to translate into actual off-take of   stagnant.
   Retail       space. In fact, completion of a number of malls has been
                                                                       The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past n the
                delayed to defer the construction costs and capitalize on
                                                                       Tier-2 cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change this
                the expected future demand from FDI.
                                                                       phenomenon can be known with more certainty once the
                Currently, unsold inventory levels continue to be high effect of FDI is more visible in Tier I cities.
                levels and lease rentals stagnant.


                Agricultural / non-agricultural lands with connectivity to
                Tier I cities and in proximity to upcoming industrial and
                                                                           Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established
                other infrastructure developments present good
    Land                                                                   growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation
                investment opportunities. Caution should however be
                                                                           due to low investment base in such areas.
                exercised due to the complexities typically involved in
                land investments.



Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
                                                                                                                                                   16
Why Karvy Private Wealth?


                                       Open Architecture – Widest array of products
   We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level :
     • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
     • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class
                                                       Intensive Research
 We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
 recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
 product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines
 truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

                                                   Honest, unbiased advise
Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or
broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like
all banks do.
                                               The KPW 3-S Service promise:
 When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-
 S Service Promise” :
         • Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience
         • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking
         • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products
                                            Pedigreed Senior Management Team

  A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
  private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.
                                                                                                                                       17
Disclaimer


The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group
companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on
their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any
information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of
Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to
time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that
they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other
securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further
restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their
respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new
Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments

Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations.
Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at:
702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 .
(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034)

SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236,
NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.:
INP000001512”                                                                                                                                 18
Contact Us



                                  Bangalore                080-26606126
                                  Chennai                  044-45925923
                                  Coimbatore               0422-4291018
                                  Delhi                    011-43533941
                                  Gurgaon                   0124-4780228
                                  Hyderabad                040-44507282
                                  Kochi                    0484-2321831

                                  Kolkata                  033-40515100
                                  Mumbai                   022-33055000
                                  Pune                      020-30116238

     Email: wealth@karvy.com              SMS: ‘HNI’ to 56767       Website: www.karvywealth.com


Corporate Office : 702, Hallmark Business Plaza, Off Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051   19

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Advice For The Wise April 2013

  • 1. ADVICE for the WISE Newsletter – APRIL 2013 1
  • 2. Contents Index Page No. Economic Update 4 Equity Outlook 8 Debt Outlook 11 Forex 13 Commodities 14 Real Estate 15 2
  • 3. From the Desk of the CIO… Dear Investors, The Cypriot hiccup caused a lot of anxiety to investors around the world health of their banks. The issue of a bailout and a subsequent bank-run in through March. While the scale of the problem in Cyprus is quite small anticipation of losses to depositors then is not quite pressing. However, if vis-à-vis the Euro-zone economy, the spirit of the deal made investors some concerns were to emerge in the short term in one of the larger wonder if something similar might happen in the bigger economies in the Euro-zone countries, the current climate is quite explosive and conducive troubled periphery. The depositors taking a hit of the bank failure was for a messy round of bank failures. ECB has taken note of that and has indeed a first. Part of the reason ECB proposed the deal in its original form postured adequately to ward off such self-fulfilling prophecies. was political. With the well-known Russian links Cyprus in not quite a Domestically, RBI obliged the investors and borrowers alike by reducing poster-boy for good governance. The idea of bailing out Cypriot banks for the repo rate by 25 bps. However, what it gave in rate cut, it took away in most Euro area common people (especially German) simply translates the hawkish tone of the policy. In a country full of edgy investors, this into spending their honest money to make good the losses of the Russian hawkishness was enough to make them push up bond yields. We continue black-money hoarders. The bailout then understandably required a to believe that with decelerating inflation RBI will have sufficient room for suitable indicator of the sternness of the saviors. As things evolved, the further rate cuts this year. deal was later ‘sweetened’ to avoid losses for the small depositors. The most important domestic development was DMK walking out of the However, the damage to the perception of Euro-zone fire-fighting efforts government thus making the latter fully dependent on outside support for was already done by then. survival. The political uncertainty went up sharply with this development. It is not hard to understand the corollary some experts are drawing from There is relative calm for now on this front. However, the guessing games this. If Cypriot bank bailout requires the depositors to take part of the hit, have begun regarding election timing, prime ministerial candidates, third a similar principle might apply in future to a bailout in say Portugal or front and so on. The environment of uncertainty has made many wonder Italy. If the Portuguese or Italian savers also think similarly now, they if the government will have the flexibility or even the willingness to push would be inclined to take money out of the banks in their respective the much-needed reforms. The actual reforms might not amount to countries and move it to north Europe before trouble begins. That would much. The pessimism amongst corporate captains owing to this however then make the financial health of the southern banks worse – thus is real and the effect of that on the continued lack of investments is quite precipitating the very crisis they feared. We believe this fear is overblown. corrosive for growth. The prime minister and the finance minister have The Euro area banks have been strengthened through repeated rounds of tried to talk up the sentiments. The jury is still out though on whether the capitalization, stress tests and active government support. It is not hard to pessimism has deepened or reduced. imagine that Euro area depositors are not worried about the financial 3 “Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 18”
  • 4. Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets 135 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225 As on 28th Change over Change over 125 115 Mar 2013 last month last year 105 95 BSE Sensex 18836 (0.14%) 8.23% 85 75 Equity S&P Nifty 5683 (0.18%) 7.31% Markets S&P 500 1569 3.60% 11.41% 9.30 Nikkei 225 12398 7.25% 22.95% 8.80 8.30 7.80 10 yr Gsec 7.30 6.80 10-yr G-Sec Yield 7.95% 8 Bps (64 bps) Debt Markets Call Markets 14.66% 681 Bps 523 Bps 33000 Gold 32000 Fixed Deposit* 8.75% 0 Bps (50 bps) 31000 30000 29000 28000 27000 RICI Index 3707 (0.4%) (2.8%) 26000 Commodity Gold (`/10gm) 29426 (0.3%) 4.8% Markets 60 `/$ Crude Oil ($/bbl) 108.45 (3.3%) (12.1%) 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 Forex Rupee/Dollar 54.4 (1.13%) (6.15%) 44 42 40 Markets Yen/Dollar 94.16 (2.5%) (12.6%) • Indicates SBI one-year FD 4 •New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)
  • 5. Economy Update - Global • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved in February, declined in March. The Index now stands at 59.7 (1985=100), down from 68.0 in February. US • the Department of Commerce announced that the US economy grew at a faster than expected 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2012,. The annualized figure was better than an earlier estimate of 0.1% growth, reflecting increased investments in plant and equipment. • The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped in March 2013 to 46.8 from 47.9 witnessed in February 2013. The Eurozone manufacturing sector is fallen in the first quarter, with an acceleration in the rate of decline in March raising the risk that the downturn may also intensify in the Europe second quarter also. • Cyprus reached a deal with international lenders for a 10bn euro bailout under which the country’s second-largest bank, Laiki, will be restructured and holders of bank deposits of more than 1 lakh euros will have to take losses. • Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 50.4 in March 2013 up from 48.5 in February 2013. This was the first reading above the critic al 50.0 no-change mark since May 2012. A rebound in output and Japan new orders exerted the main positive influence on the latest PMI reading. • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came at 4.3% in February 2013, up from 4.2% in January 2013. • China’s HSBC PMI posted a reading of 51.6 in March 2013, up from 50.4 in February 2013., signaling a modest improvement in the Chinese manufacturing sector. • Consumer prices in China rose to 3.2% in February 2013 from a year earlier and much higher from Emerging January's 2.0%. economies • India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) posted 52.0 in March 2013 down from 54.2 in February 2013, signaling a slowdown in output growth on the back of a deceleration in new orders and power outages. 5
  • 6. Economy Outlook - Domestic 10.0% 8.0% • The country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 10-year 6.0% IIP low of 4.5% during the third quarter of the current financial 4.0% year, hurt by a slowdown in agriculture, mining and 2.0% manufacturing, pushing the projected annual growth rate down 0.0% further. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 6% -2.0% in the same period of last fiscal. -4.0% -6.0% • The economic growth in the first nine months of this fiscal Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar Apr 12 May Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov Dec 12 Jan 13 12 12 12 (April-December) stood at 5%. The manufacturing sector grew an annual 2.5% during the quarter while farm output rose just 1.1% & mining fell by 1.4%. • Industrial production inched up 2.4% mainly on account of good show by manufacturing and power sectors. However, during this • The Industrial sector slightly rebounded to 3.3% during the fiscal so far it has contracted in six out of ten months. As a quarter from 2.7% y-o-y in the June quarter and 2.6% in the consequence the cumulative industrial output growth for the April- corresponding quarter of the previous year. India’s GDP growth Jan period is a paltry 0.9%, down from 3.4% in the same period of pegged at 6.1%-6.7% for FY14; FY13 growth seen 5.0%. India's 2011-12. key eight core sector growth expands 3.9% in January following 2.5% growth in December. • Manufacturing sector grew at 2.7% in January 2013 after contracting for the previous two months. Weak consumption and 8.0 7.8 7.7 investment demand on the domestic front and sluggish exports on 7.5 the external front has hit the manufacturing sector hard. Output of 6.9 GDP growth 7.0 11 out of 22 manufacturing industry groups at a 2-digit 6.5 6.1 classification contracted in January 2013. 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 • Output of the eight core infra industries having nearly 38% weight 5.0 in IIP, grew by 3.9% in January 2013 as compared to 2.5% a month 4.5 4.5 ago. The infra industries that witnessed negative growth in January 4.0 2013 were crude oil, natural gas, fertilizers and cement. FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3) 6
  • 7. Economic Outlook - Domestic 21.0% Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs  The headline inflation picked up in February on higher fuel costs but another measure of price pressures cooled, WPI, the main 19.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits inflation indicator, rose an annual 6.84% in February. The annual 17.0% reading for December was revised up to 7.31% from 7.18%. The 15.0% 13.0% non-food manufacturing inflation, which the central bank uses to 11.0% gauge demand-driven price pressures, slowed to 3.8% in February 9.0% from 4.1% a month ago. 7.0%  The CPI data tracks retail prices in five major food groups -fuel and 5.0% light, housing, clothing and miscellaneous - across rural and urban India, providing a comprehensive reference point for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to take effective monetary policy measures to deal with inflation.  As on Feb 2013 Bank credits grew by 16.3% on a Y-o-Y basis which is about 0.6% higher than the growth witnessed in Feb  India's annual inflation rate, based on all India general Consumer 2012. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 12.8%, viz-a Price Index, or CPI, as per base year 2010, for February 2013 came viz a growth of 14.4% in Feb 2012. in at 10.91%, higher than the preceding month's 10.79%. The retail inflation for the month under review remained in the double-digit  In keeping with the guidance and an increasingly benign stance, territory for third month in a row, due to higher prices of RBI reduced the repo rate by 25 bps to 7.50% in its monetary vegetables, cereals, edible oil, and protein-based items. policy as of 19th March 2013. While doing so, it also emphasized Wholesale Price Index 8.0% that supporting growth is going to be a priority in days ahead. It 7.8% 7.6% kept the others rates viz CRR and SLR unchanged. 7.4% 7.2% 7.0%  The key triggers favoring the rate cut seem to be lower 6.8% trajectory of WPI and core inflation, lower GDP data than 6.6% 6.4% anticipated and of course the government’s intent to rein in the 6.2% 6.0% fiscal deficit. 7 * End of period figures
  • 8. Equity Outlook The month of March saw political uncertainty with DMK withdrawing support from the UPA government. The government survives with outside support from UP based regional parties SP and BSP. While the government remains stable for now, it is difficult to predict the political events in the next few months. Equity markets have turned volatile with concerns about the recently unveiled reform measures. However, the government has continued with the monthly hike in diesel prices. If price hikes continue for auto fuels, it will lead to easing of pressure on fiscal deficit front. RBI has taken cognizance of these fiscal consolidation measures and continued with monetary easing with 25bps cut in repo rates in the march review. RBI has maintained its focus on reviving growth while highlighting that ‘even as the policy stance emphasizes addressing the growth risks, the headroom for further monetary easing remains quite limited.’ While headline wholesale price inflation and its core component, non-food manufactured products inflation have softened, the consumer price inflation continues to be at elevated levels. RBI believes that the onus of reviving the investment cycle lies with the government stating that the ’government has a critical role to play in this regard by remaining committed to fiscal consolidation, easing the supply bottlenecks and improving governance surrounding project implementation.’ The key risk factor for Indian markets in FY14 remains the political stability and the government’s ability to push through fiscal consolidation. It is important that some of the key reform measures like Goods and Services Tax (GST) and diesel & kerosene price deregulation are pushed through by the government. RBI might also find it difficult to carry out the necessary rate cuts if inflationary pressures don’t abate. We witnessed one of the best quarters for FII inflows in Q1 of 2013 with total inflows crossing 10 billion dollars. While Indian markets corrected, developed markets rallied sharply on hopes of economic revival this year. With US economy bouncing back and improvement in unemployment number, Global situation remains benign and conducive to equity markets in 2013. Indian equity markets have significantly underperformed global equity this quarter. Several high quality stocks have corrected sharply. With macros on the mend, we believe that the correct correction is overdone and should be used to build a long term equity portfolio. 8
  • 9. Sector View Sector Stance Remarks The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to BFSI Overweight increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better management quality and higher balance sheet discipline We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such FMCG Overweight as Cigarettes, IT hardware, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. Demand seems to be coming back in Europe. US volume growth has also remained resilient. With IT/ITES Overweight pricing already bottomed out, we have turned positive on the space. We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the Healthcare Overweight developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the E&C Neutral sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this space. 9
  • 10. Sector View Sector Stance Remarks The regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures seem to be reducing. Incumbents have started Telecom Neutral to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected. Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also Automobiles Neutral getting cheaper. We are more bullish on SUV’s and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power. With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSU’s Energy Neutral will come down during the course of the year. We are turning more constructive on the space now. We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in Power Utilities Neutral earnings and decent return on capital. Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about Metals Underweight growth in China and developed parts of the world. Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a Cement Underweight strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted. 10
  • 11. Debt Outlook 8.4 Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield 9.30 8.2 8.80 8.0 (%) (%) 7.8 8.30 7.6 7.80 7.4 7.30 7.2 6.80 3.2 5.7 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 4.0 4.9 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.9 9.7 10.5 11.3 12.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.4 • The Gsec market started the last week of the fiscal on a bearish note on political uncertainties and 10 year benchmark yield touched 7.99%. But on 28th March, the G-Sec market closed better on value buying and on measures, such as additional and special LAF, by RBI to tackle current liquidity tightness. It was the last day of trading for this fiscal and bonds bid FY13 farewell on a positive note. The benchmark 10-year security 8.15% GOI 2022 closed the week at 7.95% with a 8 Bps rise during March 2013. • India's fiscal deficit in Apr-Feb, the first eleven months of the current financial year, rose 2.8% on year to Rs 5.074 lakh cr; fiscal deficit was Rs 41680 cr in February versus Rs 58600 cr a year ago. • The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond reduced to 89 Bps on 28TH March 2013 from 104 Bps(as on 28th Feb 2013). AAA Rated bond yields dipped by 6 bps to 8.85% as compared to the yields a month earlier at 8.91%. 11
  • 12. Debt Strategy Category Outlook Details With the third policy rate cut that happened in Feb 2013, with a 25 Bps cut in Repo rate and no CRR along with lesser probability of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, but as there is influence of global factors in the Short Tenure market, a lot of uncertainty is coupled with it, hence, we would recommend Debt to invest in and hold on to current investments in short term debt Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9%–9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities. Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity Credit in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive. Indian long term debt is likely to see capital appreciation owing to the expected monetary easing. With the third policy rate cut happening in March 2013, with a 25 Bps cut in Repo and no CRR along with lesser probability of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, but along with this is a lot of uncertainty Long Tenure in the market and hence would recommend to hold on to the current Debt investments in the Longer term papers. These papers are suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term. 12
  • 13. Forex Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data 30 0 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $) 2.0% 20 -5000 1.6% 10 -10000 1.5% 0 -15000 1.0% 0.8% -10 -20000 -20 -25000 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Exports during Feb, 2013 were valued at US $ 26.26 bn which was 4.23% higher than the level of US $ 25.19 bn during Feb, 2012. -1.0% Imports during Feb, 2013 were valued at US $ 41.18 Bn -0.9% -1.5% -1.1% representing a negative growth of 2.65% over the level of USD GBP EURO YEN imports valued at US $ 40.12 Bn in Feb 2012 translating into a trade deficit of $14.92 Bn. 140000 Capital Account Balance • INR has appreciated against two major currencies other than USD & GBP. INR depreciated by 1.1% against the US Dollar. Rupee has 90000 appreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year by 0.81%. The rupee started the year at 50.88 a dollar and ended 40000 at 54.28 a dollar. It touched its all-time low of 57.33 a dollar on 22 June. -10000 FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2) • The fall of the rupee in fiscal year 2013 created many trends in the market. For one, the rupee’s neo-normal exchange rate was • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised established at above 50 a dollar. It also forced importers and from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised borrowers of foreign currency loans to hedge their exposure downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores. • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more • Volatility as last year is expected to continue as the rupee would investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs track cues from the domestic markets as well as global shores. If would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in US economy recovers, the dollar will rally, putting the rupee under the global markets could prove to be a dampener. pressure 13
  • 14. Commodities Having risen consecutively for eleven years, dollar-gold price performance is one of the best among other asset classes, generating an annualized 33000 return of 18%. The global financial system was flood with central banks 32000 Gold liquidity that had risen risk asset in the year 2012 and this is expected to further lift risk asset prices in the year 2013. Given this backdrop, one 31000 could expect a decent profit booking on the precious metal counter as the Precious money flow shall now be diverted to equities that was under owned since 30000 2008. We also expect liquidity to dry up significantly around end of 1QCY Metals following the ECB’s LTROs amid a sharp pull back in dollar index -following 29000 the Fed’s signal to wind down the stimulus program this year - could 28000 rattle global commodity prices. The controlled measures by the central bankers to curb gold demand with a prime objective being to shore up 27000 confidence in the monetary and banking system, bullion in all probability will not be a free market. As bullion derivatives market is far larger than 26000 the size of physical metal, a small trigger is sufficient enough to create a big impact. Domestically, it now seems that gold has formed an intermediate top and one could see consider price pull back going ahead in the year 2013. 130 The expectation of steadier global growth is a good news for the 120 Crude oil counter given the excess liquidity available. There is no 110 evidence of oil shortage and given the ample supply coupled with the decent growth prospects, we expect oil to remain firmer. 100 Oil & Gas While China is expected to stage a good performance this year is 90 positive for the oil market, the signal coming from the Fed on 80 unwinding of the stimulus program this year, keep a lid on the 70 prices. As the risk of oil spike has subsided considerably, the upside on this counter looks capped. 60 14
  • 15. Real Estate Outlook Asset Classes Tier I Tier II A lot of new supply has been seen in the Tier I markets across all price segments, especially in NCR-Delhi and Mumbai, owing to faster approvals and expectations of a sales recovery due to the reduction in the home loan interest rates. While some of the new launches have selectively seen a good response, overall sales have still been slow and prices continued to be stagnant in most Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend towards markets. nuclear families, increasing disposable income, rising aspiration to own quality products and the growth in Residential Mid-income residential segment with Rs. 4,000 – 6,000 per sq. ft. entry infrastructure facilities in these cities. Price appreciation is pricing with good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and Mumbai suburbs more concentrated to specific micro-markets in these cities. are expected to see good percentage returns with relatively low risk. Cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Nagpur, Patna and Cochin are expected to perform well. Implications of Budget 2013: The additional one-time tax exemption of Rs. 1,00,000 for home loans below Rs. 25 Lacs is expected to give a slight push in the affordable housing segment. TDS of 1% on all properties above Rs. 50 lacs after May 2013 and increase in service tax from 3.09% to 3.71% for flats above 2,000 sq. ft. in size or Rs. 1 Cr. in value may act as dampeners for sale of mid to high end residential space. Prices for the commercial asset class continue to be dampened due to the historic oversupply. In terms of absorption, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune markets are doing better than the national average. Rentals in commercial asset class are seen to be rising slowly but they are still Relatively low unsold inventory and smaller unit sizes have below the peal values achieved in the past. In relative terms, Bangalore led to stable lease rentals in Tier II cities. Not much Commercial/IT market has outperformed other markets owing primarily to the demand from movement in the capital values has been seen in the Tier II the IT industry. cities. Specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger lock-in periods continue to be good investment opportunities over a long-term horizon. 15
  • 16. Real Estate Outlook Asset Classes Tier I Tier II In HY2 2012, Government approved 51% foreign ownership in multi-brand retail and 100% in single-brand Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared retail. While this move is expected to infuse new to mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these enthusiasm in the sector, it will take a gestation period of rentals gets reported, these are expected to have been at least an year for this to translate into actual off-take of stagnant. Retail space. In fact, completion of a number of malls has been The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past n the delayed to defer the construction costs and capitalize on Tier-2 cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change this the expected future demand from FDI. phenomenon can be known with more certainty once the Currently, unsold inventory levels continue to be high effect of FDI is more visible in Tier I cities. levels and lease rentals stagnant. Agricultural / non-agricultural lands with connectivity to Tier I cities and in proximity to upcoming industrial and Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established other infrastructure developments present good Land growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation investment opportunities. Caution should however be due to low investment base in such areas. exercised due to the complexities typically involved in land investments. Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter 16
  • 17. Why Karvy Private Wealth? Open Architecture – Widest array of products We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level : • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class Intensive Research We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio Honest, unbiased advise Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like all banks do. The KPW 3-S Service promise: When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3- S Service Promise” : • Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products Pedigreed Senior Management Team A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations. 17
  • 18. Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512” 18
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