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Advice for the Wise October 2016

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Advice for the Wise October 2016

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Advice for the Wise October 2016

  1. 1. ADVICE FOR THE WISE October 2016
  2. 2. CONTENTS • From The CEO’s Desk • Did You Know? • Domestic Equity Outlook • Domestic Debt Outlook • Domestic Debt Strategy • Global Equity Outlook • Global Economy Update • Global Debt Outlook • Sector Outlook • Real Estate Outlook • Commodities • Foreign Exchange • What’s Trending. • Disclaimer
  3. 3. FROM THE CEO’s DESK Dear Investors, Geo-political tensions have overshadowed all other headlines the last few days. The Indian Government’s strategy has been lauded by many though the event triggered a minor correction in the Indian equity markets, bringing the indices down by 1.6%. Stock markets will be watchful this month for any follow-up political developments. In case of an adverse political event, markets would react negatively. However, these corrections provide investors a good opportunity to buy for the long term. On the global economic front, both the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged during their respective policy meets. In her policy statement, US Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that while the case for a rate hike had increased, she was not expecting it to happen before December this year. Back home, the formation of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was completed with the government appointing three independent members to it. All three members - Pammi Dua, Ravindra Dholakia and Chetan Ghate, come with excellent credentials and have vast experience in their respective fields. From the RBI’s side, the MPC will feature the Governor, the Deputy Governor and the Executive Director in charge of monetary policy. The creation of the MPC lays the foundation for a collaborative Government-RBI approach towards tackling inflation and the panel is expected to bring value and transparency to future rate-setting decisions. The MPC will deliver its first policy review on 4th Oct, and going by the pro-growth statements made by Governor Urjit Patel, the likelihood of a rate cut appears to be high.
  4. 4. The government’s decision to double the Provident Fund investment in equities from 5% to 10% of incremental flows in FY17 bodes well for the Indian equity markets. Encouraged by the returns it has made from ETFs in the previous year, and considering the downward trend in bond yields, the EPFO is seriously looking at equities to maintain the high returns that it provides to its subscribers. The decision translates into an investment of Rs.13,000 crores in equity markets in FY17. Added to this, we continue to receive foreign flows from global investors, who see value and believe in the India growth story. While valuations may appear to be stretched in certain stocks and sectors, the overall YTD Sensex returns have been in the range of 8.5%. This is a fairly modest figure when compared to other emerging markets like Brazil and Russia which have given YTD returns in excess of 30%. Being majorly commodity driven economies, these markets have seen a sharp pullback from the lows of last year, corresponding with the recovery in oil prices and other commodities. Corporates will start coming out with their second quarter results in a few days; we expect the results to be better than previous quarters and this should give markets reason to move further upwards. I hope you enjoy the Navratri festival and wish you and your families a Happy Dassera in advance!
  5. 5. DID YOU KNOW Hong Kong leads world’s IPO market in first nine month. Germany is largest automobile exporting country in the world followed By japan. The bond market has largely been dominated by the United States, which accounts for about 44% of the market.
  6. 6. DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK
  7. 7. As on 23rd September 2016 1 Month Change 1 Year Change Equity Markets BSE Sensex 28,668 2.42% 11.02% CNX Nifty 8831 2.30% 12.56% BSE Mid Cap 13331 2.99% 26.08% BSE Small Cap 12,958 4.22% 19.11% Equity markets continue to exhibit strength; building up on positives and swiftly discounting negative news flows. However, profit booking was witnessed at higher levels. The fall got extended due to surgical strikes by the Indian Army across the LoC. A knee jerk reaction was quickly negated as markets realized that it was an Anti-Terror operations and not a military one. Global scene too has slightly turned sober with ECB and Fed officials showing their reluctance to extend stimulus. Larger macro trend is also expected to be positive on back of increased consumer spend that should happen with the disbursements of 7th Pay Commission. Festive season in coming months should also drive spending and overall growth, benefiting sectors like consumer durables, fmcg, financials and automobiles. Domestic driven earnings and superior growth is likely to keep Indian markets in a stronger position vis-à-vis global markets 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
  8. 8. DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK GOVERNMENT POLICY • The much awaited GST bill has been finally passed by both houses of Parliament and is likely to be ratified by half the Indian state legislatures paving the way for its rollout for FY17-18. Railway budget is likely to be subsumed in the Union budget for FY17-18 marking a historic departure from convention.
  9. 9. WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX • India's wholesale prices index continued in positive territory at 3.74% for August, 2016 as compared to 3.55% for the month of July. • Food articles inflation increased in the month of August by 8.23%. Vegetables decreased by 0.17%. Inflation in the fuel and power segment was 1.62%, while that of manufactured products it was 2.42% in August. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX • CPI for the month of August eased at 5.05% as compared to 6.07% in July. • Year-on-year, cost of food and beverages decreased 5.83 percent (7.96 percent in July). • The food prices slowed by 5.91% compared to downwardly revised 8.35% in the previous month. Source – Tradingeconomics -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 WPI CPI
  10. 10. IIP • Industrial output in India contracted by 2.4 percent year-on-year in July of 2016, against upwardly revised 2.1% in June 2016. • Manufacturing decline 3.04%, as against increase 0.9% in June. Meanwhile, the mining sector output increased by 0.8% in July 2016. GDP • India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of the current financial year slowed down to 7.1% versus 7.9% for the previous quarter. • Private consumption growth eased to 6.7 percent from 8.3 percent in the previous quarter while government spending jumped 18.8 percent, accelerating from a 2.9 percent growth in Q1. Gross fixed capital formation shrank at a faster 3.1 percent, following a 1.9 percent contraction in the previous period. Source – Tradingeconomics 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 GDP -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 IIP
  11. 11. DOMESTIC DEBT OUTLOOK  The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 6.96% which is 16 bps lower than the last months close of 7.12%  About half of the 113-billion rupee ($1.7 billion) inflow that Indian bonds have garnered this quarter followed Patel’s promotion. The 52-year old former RBI deputy governor had established his inflation-fighting credentials by spearheading a report that led the government to adopt the nation’s first formal consumer-price target last month. As on 23rd September 2016 1 Month Change 1 Year Change Debt Markets 10-Yr G-Sec- Yield 6.96 (13bps) (67bps) Fixed Deposit 7.25 0bps (75bps) Source – Reuters 6.80 7.00 7.20 7.40 7.60 7.80 8.00 8.20 8.40 8.60 8.80 G-Sec 10 YR Gsec Yield 5 YR Gsec Yield 15 YR Gsec Yield 0 50 100 150 200 250 AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ Corporate Bond Spreads 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years
  12. 12. DOMESTIC DEBT STRATEGY SHORT TERM DEBT Investors who have a low appetite for interest rate volatility and seeking accrual returns with moderate duration can look at short term debt funds with the time horizon of 1 year to 2 years. Even though, most of the short term fund’s YTMs have fallen to sub-8%, our recommended short term debt funds still have high YTMs (8%-10%) providing interesting investment opportunities. CORPORATE BOND FUNDS The macro economic outlook along with corporate profitability seems to be improving. We remain positive on the credit outlook and look for opportunities in the credit space. The corporate bond market segment continues to be attractive over the medium to long term. The yields are at elevated levels and interest rate outlook seems favorable. The current scenario offers the potential opportunity to lock in higher accruals, with the expectation that these levels of yields may not sustain over the short to medium term. With credit easing, there are chances that the companies’ rating will be upgraded that would further cause a rally in bonds, which in turn will benefit corporate bond funds. DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS As RBI has reduced the key policy rates, dynamic bond funds have benefited a lot as most of them have a mix of gilt and long term bonds in their portfolio. Going ahead, we expect RBI to further reduce key policy rates only after studying the macro-economic data such as inflation, movement in crude oil prices and so on. Investors who don’t want to time the market and who can depend on fund managers to take view on interest rates can look at dynamic bond funds. LONG TERM DEBT FUNDS As RBI has little room left for further rate cuts, we expect Indian Debt Market to factor the same. Since the US Fed rate hike is expected in the medium term, we expect there will be very little juice left in staying invested in long term debt funds. Investors should start exiting their investments in Gilt Funds and Long Term Income Funds and go for accrual based short to medium term debt funds.
  13. 13. GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK
  14. 14. As on 23rd September2016 1 Month Change 1 Year Change Equity Markets MSCI World 1729 -0.08% 8.97% Hang Seng 23686 3.82% 12.28% S&P 500 2173 -0.10% 12.48% Nikkei 16754 1.20% -4.65% GLOBAL INDICES 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 MSCI World Hang Seng S&P 500 Nikkei
  15. 15. GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK US Fed once again kept the key interest rates on hold at its latest policy meeting. However, improving macros and support from key members indicate a rate hike by December. Recent comments from the Fed and ECB officials indicate that global central banks would be less accommodative compared to earlier times.
  16. 16. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE UNITED STATES  U.S. factories ramped up activity in September, shaking off a one-month contraction in a sign America was resisting the downward pull of the sluggish global economy, national factory activity rose to 51.5 from 49.4 the prior month  U.S. job market firming; tight inventories constraining housing.The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to a two-month low, pointing to labor market strength that could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by December. JAPAN  Japan's core consumer prices fell in the year to August, a sixth straight month of declines and a daunting challenge for the Bank of Japan's relaunched stimulus campaign. Household spending fell 4.6 percent year-on-year in the month, considerably exceeding the 2.5 percent drop expected by economists, and highlighting the weakness in private consumption which makes up roughly two-thirds of the economy.  Fed, BOJ add shine to risk-parity strategy The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan's actions have given a second wind to an alternative investment strategy that relies on cheap money and low market volatility to produce outsized returns. Source – Reuters
  17. 17. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE EUROPE  European Central Bank interest rates are probably close to the bottom, even though the bank had hoped the euro zone economy would respond better to its stimulus measures, With ECB rates now well into negative territory, the potential for detrimental side effects are increasing as they cut into banking profitability and raise the risk of asset bubbles and market distortions two top policymakers said.  This month as growth paths diverged and firms stopped discounting for the first time in a year, Markit's composite survey showed a big split between buoyant manufacturers and a struggling service sector, and a similar divide in growth rates among members of the currency union: French business activity hit a 15- month high, while Germany's private sector growth slowed to a 16-month low. EMERGING ECONOMIES  China's business people reported better operational conditions for the third quarter of 2016 and were more confident with the broader economy, According to the central bank. The business index grew to 50.3 percent from 48.3 percent in the second quarter and the profitability index rose to 54.7 percent from 52.7 percent, according to a survey by the People's Bank of China.  Indian factory activity cooled in September on slowing growth in new orders and production and as manufacturers charged slightly higher prices, although muted inflation should give the central bank room to ease policy further, a survey showed.. Source – Reuters
  18. 18. GLOBAL DEBT OUTLOOK • China’s September foreign exchange reserve data will be scrutinized for signs of a significant uptick in capital outflow and insights into the central bank’s strategy. Expectations are that forex reserves won’t change much after a larger-than-expected but still modest $15.9 billion drop in August, the second consecutive monthly decline. • India’s foreign exchange reserves increased $1.17 billion to reach $370.8 billion in September 23 on account of rise in foreign currency assets, according to Reserve Bank of India data. • China’s Yuan Just Joined An Elite Club Of International Monetary Fund Reserve Currencies, milestone for the government’s campaign for recognition as a global economic power. Ratings Country 10 Yr G-Sec Yield 1 Month Change AAA Germany -0.10% (4 bps) Hong Kong 1.01% 4 bps Sweden 0.18% 9 bps Switzerland -0.55% (8 bps) AA+ USA 1.62% 3 bps AA- China 2.74% (8 bps) Japan -0.07% (2 bps) Source – Reuters
  19. 19. SECTOR OUTLOOK
  20. 20. SECTOR OUTLOOK SECTOR STANCE REMARKS Automobiles Passenger vehicles and CVs will continue to outperform two-wheeler segment. Tractors to benefit on account of base effect and expected normal monsoons. Auto-ancillaries expected to do well due to revival of demand and stable global markets. BFSI Private sector banks continue to deliver earnings in line with expectations. However, PSBs delivering poor numbers on higher slippages and lower credit growth. We expect this trend to continue for next few quarters. FMCG We prefer “discretionary consumption” theme within FMCG. Key beneficiaries such as durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. A bounce in raw materials could put pressure on margins. Expect uptick in volumes post monsoons. E&C Order inflows expected to improve as spending and capital expenditure likely to move up on economic recovery. Moreover, sluggish execution and weak macros create a challenging environment.
  21. 21. SECTOR OUTLOOK SECTOR STANCE REMARKS Cement Cement volumes and realizations saw uptick in South region. Early signs of recovery, specifically hopes of bounce back in North and West region due to pick up in infrastructure. Cost benefits would continue to drive earnings. IT/ITES Positive impact would be due to currency volatility which would be offset by the Negative impact from the slower volume growth in the EU regions Power Utilities Lack of fuel linkages , poor SEB health, adverse CERC guidelines have compromised the ROE’s leading to de-rating in near term. Reform initiatives through UDAY can improve sector prospects in long run. Healthcare Regulatory risks have become more evident and frequent with FDA inspections for Pharma companies. US growth continues to be muted for large caps due to lower approvals and regulatory issues.
  22. 22. SECTOR OUTLOOK SECTOR STANCE REMARKS Energy Crude prices at 6 month high though at substantially lower on annual basis. Nil subsidy in FY16 for OMC’s is a positive. Trend expected to continue. Telecom Regulatory uncertainties have come down. However, aggressive bids for spectrum has revived fears of sub-optimal returns on capital. Further launch of R-Jio would lead to price disruption thereby impacting the entire sector Metals Lower global growth and Chinese slowdown has kept the growth subdued. Some recovery seen over past few months with Chinese economy stabilizing. Long term prospects continue to remain weak.
  23. 23. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
  24. 24. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK The Central Government has eased FDI norms and lifted restrictions on ticket size, Project size and stage of entry of capital thus, paving way for virtually any project to receive Foreign equity funds. Residential Prices have remained stagnant across Tier I markets. All Tier I markets have continued to witness moderate decrease in demand with sluggish market sentiments. With improvements in infrastructure across cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Nagpur, Patna and Cochin and quality products being offered the end users /investors are being spoilt for choice. The Demand drivers have increased nuclearization, rising disposable incomes and easier availability of credit. RESIDENTIAL Tier I Tier II
  25. 25. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Bangalore NCR and Hyderabad have seen strong demand in the commercial segment and even Mumbai has picked up in the later half of the year. The capital values have also been on rise in major markets except in NCR where values have remained stable. Absorption volumes have been surpassing new completions consistently, since H1 2014, as a result of which, the vacancy levels in India have been dwindling. Low unit sizes have played an important role in maintaining the absorption levels in these markets. Lease rentals as well as capital values continue to be stable at their current levels in the commercial asset class. COMMERCIAL Tier I Tier II
  26. 26. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK In Mumbai demand for space in successful malls continued to be on the rise and categories such as F&B, premium apparel and entertainment dominated leasing activity. International brands were seen increasing their footprints . Hyderabad has seen a steady growth in demand while markets like NCR, Bangalore and Chennai remained stagnant. The Mall concept is new to Tier II cities and High Street retail is still popular. Anecdotal evidence suggests that rentals have remained stagnant in this space. RETAIL Tier I Tier II
  27. 27. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Fringe areas with improving connectivity to Metro cities and other top 8 to 10 cities in India have seen interest in purchase of Plotted / Villa developments due to lower ticket size and better marketing by developers /aggregators. There is an uptick in demand for warehousing with the growth of E commerce. Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation due to low investment base in such areas. LAND Tier I Tier II
  28. 28. COMMODITIES GOLD Gold has seen a smart appreciation in this calendar year. Global uncertainties have pushed international gold prices beyond $1300. Any risk aversion due to macro or geo-political news flows could strengthen its prices. Near term range remains $1300-1400. • As on 23rd September, 2016 : 31,316 per 10gm • 1 month change : 0.80% • 1 year change : 18.51% 24000 26000 28000 30000 32000 Gold
  29. 29. COMMODITIES CRUDE OIL Crude prices have stabilized between $40- $50 per barrel. Crude along with Gold continues be the prime indicator of global risk appetite. A breakout from current range is expected soon. • As on 23rd September, 2016 : $46.71 per bbl • 1 month change : -1.80% • 1 year change : -1.20% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Crude
  30. 30. Currency As on 23rd September 2015 1 Month Change 1 Year Change USD/INR 66.65 -0.72% -0.83% GBP/INR 86.92 -1.66% 16.07% Euro/INR 74.67 -1.50% -0.95% Yen/INR 66.08 -1.23% -16.65% USD/Euro 0.89 0.61% -0.61% FOREIGN EXCHANGE • The World Bank issued 500 million SDR units ($698 million) of three-year notes in China’s interbank market this week, the first sale of debt in the International Monetary Fund’s alternative reserve assets since the 1980s. • The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) bragged the Lion City remains the largest foreign exchange centre in the Asia-Pacific region and the third largest globally after London and New York. MAS revealed that the average daily trading volume of Singapore’s forex market swelled 35% to US$517 billion in April 2016 from US$383 billion in the same month three years ago. • The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.3 billion to $367.2 billion in the week to August 26 on account of increase in foreign currency assets. -0.72% -1.66% -1.50% -1.23% -2.00% -1.60% -1.20% -0.80% -0.40% 0.00% USD GBP EURO YEN
  31. 31. WHAT’S TRENDING “Telecom Revolution ?” Profile • Reliance Industries is launching its fourth generation wireless broadband service under the brand name, Jio. The service is not just about offering wireless telephony service. This fourth generation (4G) LTE service will offer significantly faster data speeds. • Fourth generation technology standards allow to take advantage of more bandwidth and better output. So what has been done traditionally through wired applications can be now done on wireless devices at an equal speed. So consumers with 4G devices can access high-speed data, high- definition voice and do real-time video conferencing. The network also offers superior latency for gaming. • Reliance Jio launch At one point, it seemed to be the only thing Indians were talking about. The promise of fast, affordable Internet access really seems to have struck a chord with the average citizen. Of course, a lot of this has to do with the fact that broadband speeds and tariffs in India remain amongst the worst in the APAC region, and any improvement would be welcome, but you cannot deny that a lot of the excitement is also due to how better access to high-speed mobile data services could revolutionise how we live and work. • In 2015, a study conducted by the Boston Consulting Group threw up some interesting perspectives on how mobile technologies have an impact on our economy. Conducted in six countries, including India, the study found a quarter of SMEs that use mobile tech in a big way can expect double the revenue growth and job creation at 8 times the rate of their peers. • Jio's network and strategy revolves around data consumption, and that's what makes this exciting for the SME sector. As faster, cheaper data connections become available, common sense suggests we can expect every sector of the economy to take advantage of this. • Benefit we can expect to see is that of greater operational efficiency. Faster speeds and cheaper devices will enable a shift towards new tools and services tailor-made for SMEs. Source – www.rbi.org.in, www.wikipedia.com, www.businessstandard.com
  32. 32. WHAT’S TRENDING Jio’s Impact • Reliance Jio's aggressive pricing could force other telecom firms to cut voice and data tariffs. The price war may strain finances of most telecom operators, who are already laden with high debt. • As access improves, as lower prices allow greater adoption, and as faster speeds allow for usage in ways we wouldn't have imagined till now, our love affair with the Internet is bound to grow. The Problems With Reliance’s Jio • The Reliance Jio launch has aroused huge interest among subscribers. However, after the launch, a number of issues related to the new services have surfaced which could pose a challenge. • Reliance Jio has been stuck in a dispute with incumbent operators over points of interconnectivity. Jio has accused Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular of providing insufficient points of interconnectivity leading to call drop. • With addition of users to the Jio network, the speed of Jio's 4G data services has come down drastically after September 5. Now, the internet speed has come down to 6-10 Mbps from 50Mbps during the launch stage. • The Jio TV app is subjected to frequent crashes and has a long boot-time, which is also the case with most apps released by Jio. • All those who don't have VOLTE technology-supported phones cannot make voice calls without the use of Jio4G Voice app. This one drawback makes the lucrative free voice-calling feature obsolete for most new consumers. Source – www.Businesstoday.com
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