The document provides an economic and market outlook update for June 2012, noting recent declines in global equity markets due to concerns about Greece exiting the eurozone and slowing growth in the US and Europe. It reviews domestic and international economic indicators and inflation trends, and provides an outlook on the equity market and different sectors, identifying sectors like automobiles, banking, and infrastructure as overweight given expectations for monetary easing and declining oil prices.

1. ADVICE for the WISE
Newsletter – JUNE 2012

2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 11
Forex 13
Commodities 14
Real Estate 15
2

3. From the Desk of the CIO…
Dear Investor,
The domestic investors in Indian equities markets can use the approach positive news alike can be exploited rather systematically by having the
used by several companies in the developed markets when their stock gumption to buy into falling markets. The flipside is of course that
prices are unusually depressed for reasons beyond their control. Such attractive markets get even more attractive before they get fairly valued
companies routinely buy back their stock with spare cash. They believe again. One who has the patience to ignore the noise on the way will tend
that the stock prices do not reflect the fundamental value of their to make the most of the turbulence.
company and use the opportunity to buy back the cheaply available stock.
In the short term the events in Europe will dominate the investor
As global investors shun India with several doubts regarding the India
sentiment globally. We have seen mood swings of epic proportion in
growth story coupled with their own domestic fears of a financial
recent weeks. Eurobonds, political union, fiscal compact, Spanish banks on
meltdown, Indian investors would do well to use this opportunity to
the eastern side of Atlantic and a renewed talk of QE-III on the western
increase their holding of Indian equities. Just as the beaten down mid-cap
side of it have kept investors guessing regarding the present times are
stock recovers once normalcy returns, the equities valuations in a country
“risk-on” or “risk-off”. We continue to believe that Euro will continue to
such as India will tend to recover quite sharply once the sentiment
survive even if and when Greece exits it. The talk of Lehman-like meltdown
stabilizes globally.
underestimates the degree of preparedness around the world on another
This is not to trivialize the challenges facing the India growth story since Greek default (after the “voluntary” write-down last year). The battle of
there are quite a few. However we believe that in falling markets investors wits between the stronger Euro-area countries including Germany and the
often look for confirmatory negative evidence to their beliefs. Hence even weaker section (increasingly led by France) is more of a poker game than a
data of relatively limited relevance becomes suddenly the centre of shoot-out. The stronger countries will foot a large part of the bill for
attention if it happens to confirm the existing pessimistic beliefs. The price further fiscal integration (through Eurobonds, debt mutualization etc) and
volatility hence tends to be significantly higher than volatility of earnings, they want to extract a good price for it – potentially through a higher say
as everyone tries to makes sure that she is not without the chair when the in the future United States of Europe. As we maintained earlier, in absence
proverbial music stops. The mirror image of this behavior occurs in the of an unforeseen financial accident, Euro is unlikely to break up. The path
bullish markets when most analysts spend better part of their energy on to the crisis resolution is very bumpy however.
justifying already high valuations by projecting good recent past into an
Ignore all news (noise!) till it settles down or actively buy when others sell
infinite future.
are the only two sensible strategies through such turbulence.
We believe that this tendency of majority to over-react to negative and
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.18”

4. Economic Update - Snapshot of
Key Markets
110 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225
As on 31st Change over Change over 105
100
May 2012 last month last year 95
90
BSE Sensex 16219 (6.4%) (12.3%) 85
80
Equity S&P Nifty 4924 (6.2%) (11.4%) 75
Markets S&P 500 1310 (6.3%) (2.6%) 9.30
10 yr Gsec
Nikkei 225 8542 (10.3%) (11.9%) 8.80
8.30
7.80
7.30
10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.38% (30 bps) (3 bps) 6.80
Debt Markets Call Markets 8.09% (30 bps) 76 bps 31000
29000
Fixed Deposit* 9.00% 0 bps 75 bps 27000 Gold
25000
23000
21000
19000
RICI Index 3354 (11.5%) (19.7%) 17000
15000
Commodity
Gold (`/10gm) 29183 0.2% 29.7%
Markets
58
Crude Oil ($/bbl) 103.85 (12.5%) (11.4%) 56
54 `/$
52
50
48
46
Forex Rupee/Dollar 56.42 (6.9%) (20.2%) 44
42
40
Markets Yen/Dollar 79.25 1.2% 2.0%
* Indicates SBI one-year FD
4

5. Economy Update - Global
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined slightly in April, fell further in
May. The Index now stands at 64.9 (1985=100), down from 68.7 in April.
US
• The jobless rate rose to 8.2% in May from 8.1% in April, although the increase reflected more people
entering the labour force to look for work, a possible sign of growing confidence.
• The seasonally adjusted Markit Euro zone Manufacturing PMI fell to a near three-year low of 45.1 in May
2012, down from 45.9 in April 2012
Europe
• Unemployment in the euro zone rose to a 15-year high of 10.9% in March 2012, driven by lay-offs in Italy
and Spain, and economists said worse was to come as the impact of the debt crisis extracts an ever
greater toll.
• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 50.7 in May’12. The index remained above the 50
threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the sixth consecutive month, but output,
domestic new orders and export orders all slowed.
Japan
• Japan's economy grew an annualized 4.1% in the January-March 2012 quarter as resurgent domestic
demand and government spending helped fuel recovery from last year's natural disasters and supply
chain disruptions that suppressed growth.
• The seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for India, posted 55.3 in May 2012, up from
53.8 in April 2012. India's annual economic growth rate slumped in the January-March quarter to a nine-
Emerging year low of 5.3% dragged down by a moderation in services and consumption and contraction in the
economies manufacturing sector.
• China’s HSBC PMI registered 48.4 in May 2012, down slightly from 49.3 in April, signalling a seventh
successive month-on-month worsening of Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions.
5

6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
10.0%
8.0%
IIP
6.0% • India's economic growth fell below the psychologically
4.0% significant 6% level for the first time in last 3 years, signalling
2.0% that country’s slowdown is deepening and affecting all sectors
0.0% of the economy. Sharp falls in the manufacturing & Agriculture
-2.0%
sectors have led to India’s GDP growing only at 5.3% as
-4.0%
compared to 7.8% growth a year earlier.
-6.0%
Mar Apr May Jun Jul 11 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 • The economy has slowed in the face of weaker external
demand, rising global uncertainty, elevated interest rates, high
• India’s Industrial Production unexpectedly shrank 3.5% in March
inflation, a stagnant government and declining business
2012 against a robust growth of 9.4% in March 2011, as high
confidence. With the economy battling multiple
inflation and high interest rates pulled down manufacturing sector
macroeconomic problems, the Reserve Bank of India is under
while mining was mired in policy morass.
pressure to both curtail inflation and reduce key interest rates
• A sector-wise analysis of the IIP data shows that primarily to boost the investment climate in the economy.
responsible for the dismal performance was the capital goods
segment owing to a sharp drop in fresh investment. Output of this
segment contracted by a hefty 21.3% in March 2012 & as a result, 9.0 GDP growth
8.4 8.3
8.5 8.1
the manufacturing sector, as a whole, which has a share of nearly 8.0
7.8 7.7
75% in the IIP basket, also shrank by 4.4% during March 2012. 7.5
6.9
7.0
• IIP growth slowed in April-March (2011-12) period too, deepening 6.5 6.1
6.0
fears of an economic slowdown that could force the central bank 5.5 5.1
to ease monetary policy further despite inflation risks. Industrial 5.0
output growth for 2011-12 stood at 2.8% compared to 8.2% in the 4.5
4.0
previous year. FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4)
6

7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs  India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a faster-than-
25.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
23.0%
expected 7.23% in April 2012 from a year earlier, mainly
21.0% driven by higher food prices and manufactured items. It
19.0% was 6.89% for the previous month. The February Inflation
17.0% number was revised from 6.95% to 7.36%
15.0%
13.0%
 Food inflation, which makes up 14.33% of the wholesale
11.0%
9.0% price index, touched a 13-month high at 10.5% in April. It
7.0% was led by a 26.3% spurt in vegetable prices during the
5.0% month. Vegetable prices rose 61% in the month from a year
ago.
 India's new consumer inflation rate, based on the all-India
General Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) rose to
 As on 27th April 2012, Bank credits grew by 17.6% on a Y-o-Y 10.36% in April 2012 – the fourth month of such a measure
basis which is 410 Bps lower than the growth witnessed in April in the country of retail prices - against 9.38% in the previous
2011(i.e. 21.8%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at month due to a sharp increase in prices of vegetables,
13.7%, viz-a viz a growth of 16.6% in April 2011. edible oil and milk products.
 Normally, banks try to make their balance sheet stronger before
March 31, and meet their targets, and so there was a spurt in 10.0%
short-term deposits and advances. 9.0%
 On 17th April 2012, Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates for 8.0%
the first time in three years by reducing the repo rate by 50 bps
to 8%, to give boost to flagging economic growth but warned 7.0% Wholesale Price Index
that there is limited scope for further rate cuts.
6.0%
* End of period figures 7

8. Equity Outlook
The Month of May saw renewed volatility in Global Financial markets because of fresh concerns about Greek exit from the euro area.
Spanish bond yields have also spiked up. We would expect the monetary and fiscal authorities in Europe to address these issues in a
meaningful way this month. US growth has also slowed down resulting in renewed expectations about announcement of further
quantitative easing by US Federal Reserve. QE II announced in second half of 2010 resulted in significant upsides in risk assets like
equities and commodities.
With the crude oil prices falling more than 20% in last two months, we expect monetary easing cycle to accelerate in India. The
biggest concerns about India have been due to high fiscal and current account deficit both of which are a function of crude oil prices.
As crude oil prices come down, inflation and fiscal deficit numbers will look better giving RBI more leeway to cut rates. Q4FY12
earnings have been more or less in line with expectations with private banks and consumer companies recording impressive earnings
growth. The current valuations provide opportunity to pick several undervalued bottom up ideas, which have the potential to deliver
returns superior to broader markets in the next few years. 8

9. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
Demand outlook is subdued with weak earnings growth. However, raw material prices have started
coming down which would boost margins. The rate cuts have already started to trickle down which
Automobiles Overweight
will boost demand. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to
lesser competition and higher pricing power.
Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has
BFSI Overweight
good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in
managing asset quality better and would lead to increase in credit growth
While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order inflows might
IT/ITES Neutral slow down in near term. However, in the next few quarters big rupee depreciation will provide
cushion to IT companies earnings .
Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. With pricing power returning, e are
Cement Neutral
becoming constructive on this space.
We like the regulated return characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in
Power Utilities Neutral
earnings and decent return on capital.
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
FMCG Neutral
growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
9

10. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare Neutral developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
CRAMS space
The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. However, The significant slowdown in order
E&C Neutral inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector. Now since the interest rate
cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this space.
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability
Telecom Neutral levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly
and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Underweight
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about
Metals Underweight growth in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices might stay depressed as
growth slows down significantly in China and other emerging markets
10

11. Debt Outlook
9.0 9.30
Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield
8.8
8.80
8.6
8.30
(%)
(%)
8.4
8.2 7.80
8.0
7.30
7.8
7.6 6.80
7.9
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
4.7
5.5
6.3
7.1
8.7
9.5
10.2
11.0
11.8
12.6
13.4
14.2
15.0
15.7
16.5
17.3
18.1
18.9
19.7
• The 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield dipped by 30 bps in May to close at 8.38%.
• Bond yields have dropped 30 basis points in the month of may, after January-March economic growth data came in at a
much-lower-than-expected 5.3%, setting up expectations the central bank would be more open to monetary easing
despite its previous concerns about inflation along with the recent slump in oil prices, with both US crude and Brent
futures below $100 a barrel.
• The spread a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond spread has increased to 102 bps on 31st may 2012 from a 76 Bps spread
on 30th April 2012. On the contrary, The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9.4% on 31st May as compared to 9.44% on 30th
April 2012.
12

12. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
The much awaited and expected trend reversal of the interest rates
starting with a 50 Bps rate cut, we would recommend investment in
Short Tenure short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and
early too. Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI
Debt
has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher.
Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providing
interesting investment opportunities.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the
current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also.
Credit Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the
spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
With the much awaited trend reversal in the interest rates coming as a
50 Bps rate cut and signals of no more cuts in near future, we would
recommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24
Long Tenure months in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in the
Debt same. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide an
opportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates.
Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want to
stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and
those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.
13

13. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) 100
Trade balance and export-import data 0
USD GBP EURO YEN Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
80 -5000
0.00% 60
-10000
-1.00% 40
-15000
20
-2.00% (0.48%) -20000
-
-3.00% (20) -25000
(2.15%)
-4.00%
-5.00% • Exports during April, 2012 were valued at US$ 24.46 bn which
was 3.23% higher in Dollar terms than the level of US$ 23.69 bn
-6.00%
during April, 2011 while Imports during April, 2012 were valued
-7.00%
at US$ 37.94 bn representing a growth of 3.83% in Dollar terms
-8.00% (6.92%) over the level of imports valued at US$ 36.54 bn in April, 2011
-9.00% (8.43%) translating into a trade deficit of $13.49 bn.
140000
• INR has depreciated against all the major currencies. It Capital Account Balance
depreciated by 6.9%, in May ( 2.6% in April 2012) against the US
90000
Dollar. But, since the beginning of the calendar year it has
depreciated by 5.5%
40000
• However, surging crude oil prices and their cascading impact on
inflation and growth in India, which imports about 80 per cent -10000 FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
of its oil requirements, is expected to limit the rise in the rupee. • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised
from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was
• Rupee depreciated against Euro by 0.5%. The euro was seen revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100
recovering its losses on account of smooth Italian bond auction, Crores.
which tried to cool the European markets which were sparked • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more
by the downgrade of Spain. investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs
would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty
in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
14

14. Commodities
30000
Gold staged a strong come back at the start of this month in line 29000
Gold
with our. We expect gold prices to remain at an elevated levels 28000
for the rest of this calendar year. As a quasi currency, we see 27000
more safe haven purchases to happen going forward in the 26000
Precious yellow metal given restrictions in purchases of Swiss and other 25000
perceived safe haven currencies of the Euro zone. The recent fall 24000
Metals in rupee denominated gold prices amid some relaxation of the 23000
budgetary provision with respect to gold purchases further 22000
improved physical buying in India. With global markets at a key 21000
inflection points with the forth coming events ahead in the 20000
31-Jul-11
31-Jan-12
31-Aug-11
31-Oct-11
31-Mar-12
30-Jun-11
30-Apr-12
31-Dec-11
31-May-11
30-Nov-11
31-May-12
30-Sep-11
29-Feb-12
month of June, expect gold prices to remain at an elevated
levels.
140.0
Crude oil fell below $100 a mark in line with our expectation and
we continue to maintain that crude shall be under pressure for Crude
130.0
some time to come unless the liquidity glut arising out of QE
pushes prices up. The slew of fundamentals keep prices under 120.0
pressure. The US stockpiles are at multi-year high; the Saudi oil
production is at 23 years peak. On the flip side, the growing Euro 110.0
Oil & Gas zone concerns and drastic slow down in China dented oil demand
100.0
as global economies risk moving into recession. Expect oil to
remain stable and all eyes shall now be on Fed and Euro zone 90.0
members for more QE’s.
80.0
31-Oct-2011
31-Mar-2012
30-Jun-2011
30-Apr-2012
31-Dec-2011
31-May-2011
30-Nov-2011
31-May-2012
31-Jul-2011
30-Sep-2011
31-Jan-2012
29-Feb-2012
31-Aug-2011

15. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
The FY12 year ended in vain with lots of expectation of price correction. Not much change in prices, though the investors
Though, all prime pockets in Mumbai, Pune, Gurgaon and Bangalore demand in these sectors increased since prices being
have recorded 8-9% better sales in the last quarter of the FY12 still affordable. Also the infrastructure development in
compared to FY11, majorly due to new project launches. Markets like Tier II cities have been dramatic in last 2-3 years and
Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune and Bangalore to an extent remained opened the city wide on real estate developments with
stagnant due to bigger projects being launched by all major local high-rise buildings taking the glam quotient high with
Residential developers. Mumbai is majorly affected by the building plans not being the new generation or emergence of nuclear families
sanctioned from almost over a year. The new Development Control in last decade. With the new Finance Bill approving of
Rules (DCR) and have only indicated a rise in price and precisely due the ECB in Affordable Housing sector, lot of change is
same reasons Thane has gained enormously on appreciation and expected in demand since it targets houses in the
investment last year. Gurgon expansion in sectors like 114, 90 and 65 range of 15-20 lacs.
all far ends, have only taken the price of prime sectors 10-12% high.
The UP elections kept Noida unattractive for almost 3 quarter in FY12.
Though 30% better on lease transaction than last year, the capital High streets have seen appreciation, traditional
values have taken a major hit due to the rent being compressed. The commercial locations still preferred and are intact on
supply seems still a concern and will only even out in 2014-15. IT/ITES values. Cities like Lucknow, Indore, Jaipur, Ahmedabad,
Commercial/IT
and Services consuming over 70% of real estate in India is now seen Surat, Vishakatnam, Chandigarh, Madurai are thriving
governing the market dynamics. Average rentals other than Mumbai for on better consume aspirations.
warm shell remains still under Rs. 40 per sqft.
15

16. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Other than India’s top 10-15 malls, most have vacancy of
Nothing to beat local traditional markets. Malls are many and
minimum 30% and lately many have changed plans to suit
footfalls keep reducing year on year putting heavy conversion
commercial demand. Traditional investors exposure to the
Retail pressure on retailers to keep innovating lease as well as product
segment came down drastically making exits of developer
to achieve break-even. Many brands have increased their
difficult. The revenue share model with retailers remains a
presence in Hi-streets than malls.
concern to all mall developers.
Very attractive, still have scope of high appreciation. India’s
Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit since the
Land Infrastructure story will only keep demand high and the Real
trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
Estate Investors (small and big) are exploring the unexplored.
Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
16

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Open Architecture – Widest array of products
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Intensive Research
We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
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Honest, unbiased advise
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Pedigreed Senior Management Team
A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
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18. Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group
companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on
their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any
information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of
Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.
The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to
time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that
they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other
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The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their
respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new
Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments
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