The document discusses the outlook for the global investment banking industry in summer 2012. It makes the following key points:
1) Global investment banking revenues are projected to be in the range of EUR 200-260 billion for 2012, depending on how the European sovereign debt crisis unfolds. This represents only a small increase or potential decrease from 2011 levels.
2) Performance in investment banking strongly differed between peer groups in 2011-2012. Emerging markets players grew while many mid-sized developed markets players came under pressure.
3) Unless major changes are made to business models, return on equity for most investment banks is expected to remain in the single digits. Significant restructuring and job cuts may be needed for the
This document is a guide to the markets published by JPMorgan that provides data and analysis across various asset classes including equities, fixed income, international markets, and the economy. It includes sections on returns by investment style and sector for equities, economic indicators and drivers, interest rates and yields for fixed income, growth and valuation metrics for international markets, and historical returns for various asset classes. The guide contains over 60 charts and analyses to inform readers about the current state of the financial markets.
1) The recent correction in equity markets is typical of the second year of a bull market as growth momentum slows and liquidity dries up.
2) While concerns about European sovereign debt triggered the decline, underlying factors like peaking earnings growth and shrinking liquidity exacerbated the fall.
3) The correction looks normal rather than the start of a new bear market, though uncertainty may keep markets weak in the near term. Selective buying of oversold stocks and sectors presents opportunities.
The document provides economic highlights and figures for Israel for Q3 2011. It includes key indicators such as GDP growth, exports, unemployment, inflation rates, and Israel's main trading partners. GDP grew by 4.7% in Q3 2011, exports reached $23.1 billion, and unemployment fell to 5.5%. Israel's top trading partners are the US, China, UK, Germany, and Switzerland.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for 2012, predicting that growth will bottom out in the first quarter of 2012 at 6% for India while inflation averages around 7%, and that monetary policy in India will start easing on the back of slowing growth and easing inflation. Globally, the outlook expects no recession in the US with growth around 2% and a tricky situation in Europe, while select emerging markets and exposure to crude oil, the US dollar, and select equities are recommended for investment.
This document provides an overview and summary of Assicurazioni Generali Group's 2008 results. It discusses the company's strategic focus on core Western European markets, maintenance of a balanced investment portfolio despite financial market challenges, and execution of initiatives around distribution strategy, product mix, geographical growth, and efficiency. It also summarizes key financial metrics for 2008 such as gross written premiums, operating result by segment, and breakdown of results from operating to net.
The Lithuanian Economy, No.2, 9 March/2011Swedbank
The Lithuanian economic sentiment indicator reached its lowest point in the first half of 2009 but has been gradually improving since then, though it remains in negative territory, indicating continued pessimism. The recovery of sentiment across different sectors has been uneven - while services confidence has been positive since early 2010, construction confidence remains weak at -40 points. Consumer confidence increased in the first half of 2010 but has stalled more recently due to high inflation and slowing wage and jobs growth. Overall the economic sentiment recovery is noticeable but gradual as structural unemployment remains high and domestic demand is still subdued.
The weekly market outlook document provides the following information:
1) Indian stock markets declined for the second consecutive week, with the Sensex and Nifty falling 1.6% and 1.29% respectively, as bears took control of Dalal Street.
2) Volatility is expected to continue in the coming weeks due to upcoming state election results and the union budget.
3) The document provides technical analysis for 30 Sensex stocks and 50 Nifty midcap stocks, identifying support and resistance levels.
This document is a guide to the markets published by JPMorgan that provides data and analysis across various asset classes including equities, fixed income, international markets, and the economy. It includes sections on returns by investment style and sector for equities, economic indicators and drivers, interest rates and yields for fixed income, growth and valuation metrics for international markets, and historical returns for various asset classes. The guide contains over 60 charts and analyses to inform readers about the current state of the financial markets.
1) The recent correction in equity markets is typical of the second year of a bull market as growth momentum slows and liquidity dries up.
2) While concerns about European sovereign debt triggered the decline, underlying factors like peaking earnings growth and shrinking liquidity exacerbated the fall.
3) The correction looks normal rather than the start of a new bear market, though uncertainty may keep markets weak in the near term. Selective buying of oversold stocks and sectors presents opportunities.
The document provides economic highlights and figures for Israel for Q3 2011. It includes key indicators such as GDP growth, exports, unemployment, inflation rates, and Israel's main trading partners. GDP grew by 4.7% in Q3 2011, exports reached $23.1 billion, and unemployment fell to 5.5%. Israel's top trading partners are the US, China, UK, Germany, and Switzerland.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for 2012, predicting that growth will bottom out in the first quarter of 2012 at 6% for India while inflation averages around 7%, and that monetary policy in India will start easing on the back of slowing growth and easing inflation. Globally, the outlook expects no recession in the US with growth around 2% and a tricky situation in Europe, while select emerging markets and exposure to crude oil, the US dollar, and select equities are recommended for investment.
This document provides an overview and summary of Assicurazioni Generali Group's 2008 results. It discusses the company's strategic focus on core Western European markets, maintenance of a balanced investment portfolio despite financial market challenges, and execution of initiatives around distribution strategy, product mix, geographical growth, and efficiency. It also summarizes key financial metrics for 2008 such as gross written premiums, operating result by segment, and breakdown of results from operating to net.
The Lithuanian Economy, No.2, 9 March/2011Swedbank
The Lithuanian economic sentiment indicator reached its lowest point in the first half of 2009 but has been gradually improving since then, though it remains in negative territory, indicating continued pessimism. The recovery of sentiment across different sectors has been uneven - while services confidence has been positive since early 2010, construction confidence remains weak at -40 points. Consumer confidence increased in the first half of 2010 but has stalled more recently due to high inflation and slowing wage and jobs growth. Overall the economic sentiment recovery is noticeable but gradual as structural unemployment remains high and domestic demand is still subdued.
The weekly market outlook document provides the following information:
1) Indian stock markets declined for the second consecutive week, with the Sensex and Nifty falling 1.6% and 1.29% respectively, as bears took control of Dalal Street.
2) Volatility is expected to continue in the coming weeks due to upcoming state election results and the union budget.
3) The document provides technical analysis for 30 Sensex stocks and 50 Nifty midcap stocks, identifying support and resistance levels.
The document discusses strategies for private equity players to weather the current economic storm caused by the credit crisis. It provides the following key points:
1. The private equity industry experienced exceptional growth from 2004 to mid-2007 due to abundant liquidity and debt financing, however the credit crunch since late 2007 has significantly slowed deal activity and increased the cost of debt.
2. Recommendations for private equity players include keeping a long-term perspective despite short-term market volatility, identifying new opportunities such as smaller deals and minority investments that require less debt financing, and focusing on value creation through cost optimization and strategic changes within portfolio companies.
3. While economic downturns can challenge the industry, past crises
The document provides an outlook on global markets and asset classes for May 2012 from The Henley Group. Key points include:
- The period of calm in European markets following ECB intervention was short-lived as concerns over Spain's debt resurfaced.
- Problems facing the global economy like high debt levels remain systemic and structural.
- Spanish debt levels and unemployment are high while property markets and banks are struggling.
- Many banks remain highly leveraged which could lead to insolvency if losses are incurred.
- Political changes in Europe may undermine austerity efforts, adding further uncertainty.
- Precious metals and miners' shares are recommended as long term holdings.
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Wayne McCurrie on Fixed Income and Cash Investingmoneyweb
Fixed income and cash investing were to be discussed. The agenda included introductions to fixed income markets and cash investing, as well as broad asset allocations. Fixed income includes government, agency, corporate and municipal bonds. Cash investing provides capital preservation but returns are typically lower than inflation over time. Relative valuations of fixed income versus equities were to also be reviewed.
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Jones Lang LaSalle EMEA Corporate Occupier Conditions Industrial December 2011hoet
This document summarizes industrial occupier market conditions in EMEA in December 2011. It notes that while take-up has been ahead of last year so far, signs of slowing activity are emerging due to renewed economic uncertainty in the Eurozone. Limited development has led to tighter supply, and reduced developer confidence and financing constraints will further limit new speculative developments. Prime rents have increased in many markets but the rate of growth is starting to slow down.
BDO presentation HSM_Szakmai_Baráti_Kör_feb_19Juhász István
This document summarizes recent trends in the Hungarian hotel market. It notes that the 4-star and 5-star sectors in Budapest have seen the most growth, while 2-star and 3-star categories are shrinking. The provinces are also experiencing growth driven by EU funds, leisure travel, and facilities like wellness hotels. Overall demand for hotels has increased but prices have remained flat or declined since the financial crisis. The market remains fragile to global economic events. Future supply is limited but some new operators may enter the market if demand growth becomes more sustainable. Many existing hotels struggle with debt obligations, and banks have taken over troubled assets. Transaction volume remains low and values are difficult to determine. Strong cost management will be needed as
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic and market outlook for July 2012. It summarizes that European governments and banks are insolvent, US governments and banks also face challenges, and foreigners are abandoning the US dollar in favor of alternatives like gold. While central banks are providing liquidity, high debt levels, weak growth, and political uncertainties persist as major concerns. The outlook remains negative across many asset classes.
The Indian stock markets declined over the past week. The Sensex fell 1.38% and the Nifty fell 1.89% due to concerns over a potential downgrade of India's credit rating and slowing economic growth. Several sectors declined over 3%, with the technology sector outperforming. Looking ahead, the markets may remain lackluster as investors await key economic data releases from India and the US. Support levels of 5130-5150 could trigger further declines in the Nifty if broken.
This weekly newsletter provides an overview of economic and business news from countries in the Middle East and North Africa region for the week of July 3, 2009 to July 9, 2009. Top stories include Saudi Arabia seeking duties on Chinese petrochemical imports, Kuwait spending on new hospitals, Dubai recording a drop in inflation rate, and Oman's non-oil sectors driving economic growth in 2008. Market indexes and commodity prices for various MENA countries are also presented.
Lessons from Latvia’s internal adjustment strategyLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Ilmārs Rimšēvičs, Governor of the Bank of Latvia at International Conference: "Against the Odds: Lessons from the Recovery in the Baltics" organized by the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of Latvia.
Riga, June 5, 2012
The document discusses challenges facing Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in technology-based competition. It notes that CEE countries are moderate innovators or laggards that rely primarily on indirect R&D through imported equipment and inputs. There is a limited market for knowledge-based enterprises in CEE due to factors like a demand gap for research, technology, and development. The business enterprise sector plays a limited role in R&D in most CEE countries compared to governments and higher education. This signals a need for CEE countries to better integrate foreign direct investment and technology transfer into innovation policies to close indirect and direct R&D gaps.
Hotels showed signs of recovery after a very problematic 2010 with occupancy rates higher in Q1 2011 than the previous quarter. Rates in Q1 2011 are comparable to those registered in Q1 2010.
The trend is still for hotels, especially in Luxury segment, to drive rates down in order to compete and this looks set to continue. A "risk discount" seems to be being applied in the case of hotels in areas deemed prone to further political strife.
Middle Eastern, Indian and Chinese visitors continue to be a growing presence in the Bangkok tourism industry especially during the low season. However traditional tourist markets, the mainstay of the Upper/Luxury segment (ULS), have begun to return to the city. The effect of the reduction in long term bookings after events last April and May appears to be abating.
Future supply in 2011 and 2012 will further test hotels’ ability to fill their rooms. Only continued strong growth in tourism can mitigate this situation. There will be no respite for the industry for some time to come.
Currency wars triple dips and politics to dominate 2013Richard Ramsey
Currency wars, the risk of further economic downturns, and political challenges will dominate the global economic environment in 2013 according to the Year of the Snake outlook. The eurozone faces ongoing fiscal challenges as several major economies like France, Italy, and Spain continue to contract. Youth unemployment rates have reached crisis levels in many countries. Political leaders face difficulties enacting reforms needed to restore growth. Overall, the recovery remains fragile and further economic and political turbulence seem likely in the coming year.
Hussar & Co. is an investment banking firm focused on advising corporate clients in emerging Europe, including Eastern Europe, Russia, and CIS countries. It provides strategic advisory, mergers and acquisitions advisory, and capital formation services to empower its clients with access to global capital markets and support their growth, liquidity, and strategic transactional objectives. Hussar's team has decades of experience in the region and an extensive network of investors globally.
This issue of Redmayne-Bentley's Equity Insight publication focuses on seasonal stock market weakness that often occurs in September and October. It notes several major market declines that have happened during these months. With major stock market indexes close to historic highs, investors are bracing themselves for potential panic selling. However, some large companies are still reporting improved earnings despite cautious outlooks. It also discusses regions like Asia that may continue growing and offset weakness in Western economies. Overall the publication adopts a cautiously optimistic tone, noting defensive positions in bonds but also opportunities among quality companies.
Roland berger managing-the-it-cost-challenge_20090522Karthik Arumugham
This document discusses eleven levers that companies can use to significantly reduce IT costs within 12-18 months. These levers include eliminating redundant management functions, simplifying procedures, optimizing project management, capping budgets, standardizing products, industrializing operations, adjusting service levels, simplifying architecture, improving sourcing mixes, and leveraging sourcing power. Implementing cost reduction measures can be challenging due to impacts on headcount and business operations. Measures must focus on both reducing change costs and ensuring costs remain low to achieve sustainable savings. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants can help identify high-impact actions and implement a comprehensive cost reduction program.
Didier Tshidimba, Managing Partner, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants (Deman...Vlerick_Alumni
The document discusses trends driving increasing energy demand and how that demand will be met. Electricity demand is projected to grow to 100-125 terawatt hours by 2050, though less rapidly than GDP due to efficiency gains. Most new supply will come from decentralized low- and medium-voltage generation like solar, wind, and biomass. Transmission system operators face challenges from smart grids and metering, uncertain renewable production, and new technologies. Organizations need strategies around efficiency, understanding energy markets, and defining optimal sourcing mixes.
Estudio digitalizacion Espana 4.0 Siemens and Roland BergerXimo Salas
El estudio “España 4.0: el reto de la transformación digital de la economía”, recién publicado por Roland Berger y Siemens, aclara que, aunque la nuestra sea la economía número 14 del planeta, nos quedamos a la cola en lo que respecta el desarrollo de la digitalización.
20161213 Maintenance subsea power cables for offshore wind - summarytespanyo2
Offshore wind generation capacity is growing rapidly in Europe. Maintaining subsea export power cables for offshore wind farms is important to ensure availability and efficiency. This document analyzes maintenance policies for such cables in Europe. It finds that maintenance includes preventative and corrective actions. Preventative maintenance includes inspections and predictive activities. Corrective maintenance policies define roles for repair and aim to minimize losses from failures. Transmission system operators typically outsource corrective maintenance to contractors with specialized expertise like cable manufacturers or maintenance specialists. Industry best practices include contingency planning, frame agreements, and spare parts management.
Roland berger: fight_or_flight_shortversion_20101025Óscar Miranda
The pharmaceutical industry is facing a strategic crisis according to 65% of executives surveyed. Changing healthcare environments, budget pressures, and upcoming patent expiries are challenging the traditional business model focused on innovative drugs. Diversification is seen as a potential way out of the crisis by 67% of executives. The most common diversification areas pursued are generics, due to their proximity to existing businesses and high margins. Drivers of diversification include the R&D productivity crisis, emerging market opportunities, and the merging of medical disciplines. Executives believe diversification will help overcome challenges and sustain growth.
The document discusses strategies for private equity players to weather the current economic storm caused by the credit crisis. It provides the following key points:
1. The private equity industry experienced exceptional growth from 2004 to mid-2007 due to abundant liquidity and debt financing, however the credit crunch since late 2007 has significantly slowed deal activity and increased the cost of debt.
2. Recommendations for private equity players include keeping a long-term perspective despite short-term market volatility, identifying new opportunities such as smaller deals and minority investments that require less debt financing, and focusing on value creation through cost optimization and strategic changes within portfolio companies.
3. While economic downturns can challenge the industry, past crises
The document provides an outlook on global markets and asset classes for May 2012 from The Henley Group. Key points include:
- The period of calm in European markets following ECB intervention was short-lived as concerns over Spain's debt resurfaced.
- Problems facing the global economy like high debt levels remain systemic and structural.
- Spanish debt levels and unemployment are high while property markets and banks are struggling.
- Many banks remain highly leveraged which could lead to insolvency if losses are incurred.
- Political changes in Europe may undermine austerity efforts, adding further uncertainty.
- Precious metals and miners' shares are recommended as long term holdings.
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Wayne McCurrie on Fixed Income and Cash Investingmoneyweb
Fixed income and cash investing were to be discussed. The agenda included introductions to fixed income markets and cash investing, as well as broad asset allocations. Fixed income includes government, agency, corporate and municipal bonds. Cash investing provides capital preservation but returns are typically lower than inflation over time. Relative valuations of fixed income versus equities were to also be reviewed.
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Jones Lang LaSalle EMEA Corporate Occupier Conditions Industrial December 2011hoet
This document summarizes industrial occupier market conditions in EMEA in December 2011. It notes that while take-up has been ahead of last year so far, signs of slowing activity are emerging due to renewed economic uncertainty in the Eurozone. Limited development has led to tighter supply, and reduced developer confidence and financing constraints will further limit new speculative developments. Prime rents have increased in many markets but the rate of growth is starting to slow down.
BDO presentation HSM_Szakmai_Baráti_Kör_feb_19Juhász István
This document summarizes recent trends in the Hungarian hotel market. It notes that the 4-star and 5-star sectors in Budapest have seen the most growth, while 2-star and 3-star categories are shrinking. The provinces are also experiencing growth driven by EU funds, leisure travel, and facilities like wellness hotels. Overall demand for hotels has increased but prices have remained flat or declined since the financial crisis. The market remains fragile to global economic events. Future supply is limited but some new operators may enter the market if demand growth becomes more sustainable. Many existing hotels struggle with debt obligations, and banks have taken over troubled assets. Transaction volume remains low and values are difficult to determine. Strong cost management will be needed as
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic and market outlook for July 2012. It summarizes that European governments and banks are insolvent, US governments and banks also face challenges, and foreigners are abandoning the US dollar in favor of alternatives like gold. While central banks are providing liquidity, high debt levels, weak growth, and political uncertainties persist as major concerns. The outlook remains negative across many asset classes.
The Indian stock markets declined over the past week. The Sensex fell 1.38% and the Nifty fell 1.89% due to concerns over a potential downgrade of India's credit rating and slowing economic growth. Several sectors declined over 3%, with the technology sector outperforming. Looking ahead, the markets may remain lackluster as investors await key economic data releases from India and the US. Support levels of 5130-5150 could trigger further declines in the Nifty if broken.
This weekly newsletter provides an overview of economic and business news from countries in the Middle East and North Africa region for the week of July 3, 2009 to July 9, 2009. Top stories include Saudi Arabia seeking duties on Chinese petrochemical imports, Kuwait spending on new hospitals, Dubai recording a drop in inflation rate, and Oman's non-oil sectors driving economic growth in 2008. Market indexes and commodity prices for various MENA countries are also presented.
Lessons from Latvia’s internal adjustment strategyLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Ilmārs Rimšēvičs, Governor of the Bank of Latvia at International Conference: "Against the Odds: Lessons from the Recovery in the Baltics" organized by the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of Latvia.
Riga, June 5, 2012
The document discusses challenges facing Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in technology-based competition. It notes that CEE countries are moderate innovators or laggards that rely primarily on indirect R&D through imported equipment and inputs. There is a limited market for knowledge-based enterprises in CEE due to factors like a demand gap for research, technology, and development. The business enterprise sector plays a limited role in R&D in most CEE countries compared to governments and higher education. This signals a need for CEE countries to better integrate foreign direct investment and technology transfer into innovation policies to close indirect and direct R&D gaps.
Hotels showed signs of recovery after a very problematic 2010 with occupancy rates higher in Q1 2011 than the previous quarter. Rates in Q1 2011 are comparable to those registered in Q1 2010.
The trend is still for hotels, especially in Luxury segment, to drive rates down in order to compete and this looks set to continue. A "risk discount" seems to be being applied in the case of hotels in areas deemed prone to further political strife.
Middle Eastern, Indian and Chinese visitors continue to be a growing presence in the Bangkok tourism industry especially during the low season. However traditional tourist markets, the mainstay of the Upper/Luxury segment (ULS), have begun to return to the city. The effect of the reduction in long term bookings after events last April and May appears to be abating.
Future supply in 2011 and 2012 will further test hotels’ ability to fill their rooms. Only continued strong growth in tourism can mitigate this situation. There will be no respite for the industry for some time to come.
Currency wars triple dips and politics to dominate 2013Richard Ramsey
Currency wars, the risk of further economic downturns, and political challenges will dominate the global economic environment in 2013 according to the Year of the Snake outlook. The eurozone faces ongoing fiscal challenges as several major economies like France, Italy, and Spain continue to contract. Youth unemployment rates have reached crisis levels in many countries. Political leaders face difficulties enacting reforms needed to restore growth. Overall, the recovery remains fragile and further economic and political turbulence seem likely in the coming year.
Hussar & Co. is an investment banking firm focused on advising corporate clients in emerging Europe, including Eastern Europe, Russia, and CIS countries. It provides strategic advisory, mergers and acquisitions advisory, and capital formation services to empower its clients with access to global capital markets and support their growth, liquidity, and strategic transactional objectives. Hussar's team has decades of experience in the region and an extensive network of investors globally.
This issue of Redmayne-Bentley's Equity Insight publication focuses on seasonal stock market weakness that often occurs in September and October. It notes several major market declines that have happened during these months. With major stock market indexes close to historic highs, investors are bracing themselves for potential panic selling. However, some large companies are still reporting improved earnings despite cautious outlooks. It also discusses regions like Asia that may continue growing and offset weakness in Western economies. Overall the publication adopts a cautiously optimistic tone, noting defensive positions in bonds but also opportunities among quality companies.
Roland berger managing-the-it-cost-challenge_20090522Karthik Arumugham
This document discusses eleven levers that companies can use to significantly reduce IT costs within 12-18 months. These levers include eliminating redundant management functions, simplifying procedures, optimizing project management, capping budgets, standardizing products, industrializing operations, adjusting service levels, simplifying architecture, improving sourcing mixes, and leveraging sourcing power. Implementing cost reduction measures can be challenging due to impacts on headcount and business operations. Measures must focus on both reducing change costs and ensuring costs remain low to achieve sustainable savings. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants can help identify high-impact actions and implement a comprehensive cost reduction program.
Didier Tshidimba, Managing Partner, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants (Deman...Vlerick_Alumni
The document discusses trends driving increasing energy demand and how that demand will be met. Electricity demand is projected to grow to 100-125 terawatt hours by 2050, though less rapidly than GDP due to efficiency gains. Most new supply will come from decentralized low- and medium-voltage generation like solar, wind, and biomass. Transmission system operators face challenges from smart grids and metering, uncertain renewable production, and new technologies. Organizations need strategies around efficiency, understanding energy markets, and defining optimal sourcing mixes.
Estudio digitalizacion Espana 4.0 Siemens and Roland BergerXimo Salas
El estudio “España 4.0: el reto de la transformación digital de la economía”, recién publicado por Roland Berger y Siemens, aclara que, aunque la nuestra sea la economía número 14 del planeta, nos quedamos a la cola en lo que respecta el desarrollo de la digitalización.
20161213 Maintenance subsea power cables for offshore wind - summarytespanyo2
Offshore wind generation capacity is growing rapidly in Europe. Maintaining subsea export power cables for offshore wind farms is important to ensure availability and efficiency. This document analyzes maintenance policies for such cables in Europe. It finds that maintenance includes preventative and corrective actions. Preventative maintenance includes inspections and predictive activities. Corrective maintenance policies define roles for repair and aim to minimize losses from failures. Transmission system operators typically outsource corrective maintenance to contractors with specialized expertise like cable manufacturers or maintenance specialists. Industry best practices include contingency planning, frame agreements, and spare parts management.
Roland berger: fight_or_flight_shortversion_20101025Óscar Miranda
The pharmaceutical industry is facing a strategic crisis according to 65% of executives surveyed. Changing healthcare environments, budget pressures, and upcoming patent expiries are challenging the traditional business model focused on innovative drugs. Diversification is seen as a potential way out of the crisis by 67% of executives. The most common diversification areas pursued are generics, due to their proximity to existing businesses and high margins. Drivers of diversification include the R&D productivity crisis, emerging market opportunities, and the merging of medical disciplines. Executives believe diversification will help overcome challenges and sustain growth.
This document summarizes key findings from a survey of 12,000 Chinese consumers conducted by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. It provides 6 recommendations for businesses operating in China: 1) Don't disregard smaller cities. 2) Concentrate on consumers under age 40. 3) Strengthen your brand. 4) Channels are critical. 5) Consider environmental and social issues ("go green"). It also distinguishes between large "megacities" and smaller tier-1, tier-2, and tier-3 cities in terms of population and economic importance.
Manufacturers of Li-Ion batteries currently enjoy a business hype – but massive consolidation is expected in the next 5-7 years. Increased electrified powertrains will drive battery demand growth, but overcapacity from major investments could result in only 6-8 global battery manufacturers surviving due to the need for large scale and high R&D/manufacturing costs. Western governments may need to intervene to support development of future battery technologies locally.
The document discusses a "Light Footprint" approach to management in a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) world. It notes that traditional management methods are no longer effective given increased difficulties and widespread criticism companies now face. The Light Footprint approach is inspired by military strategy, which serves as a leading indicator of how competition will evolve. It focuses on winning with limited resources and no margin for error. The approach aims to help companies adapt to constant changes and disruptions in today's digital world.
The document summarizes a study on the global aerostructures tooling equipment market conducted by Roland Berger:
- The market is expected to peak at $1.4 billion in 2012 due to programs like A350 and B787, but then decline sharply to $400 million by 2020 due to a lack of new programs.
- There will be a shift towards optimizing and retrofitting existing equipment as installed capacity exceeds demand. The service market share is expected to reach 60% by 2020.
- Key trends include increasing industrialization, a push for more flexible and cost-efficient standardized/modularized equipment, and emerging markets demanding simpler turnkey solutions.
The document discusses the concept of VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) which was originally used by the US military to describe the complex modern world. It notes that business leaders now face a similarly dynamic landscape. Each element of VUCA poses unique challenges for leadership, such as the inability to predict events, insufficient information, and mixed or confusing messages. However, the document argues leaders can develop skills to better navigate uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. These include developing vision and strategic thinking, listening, empowering others, and continually innovating. Overall, the document analyzes how VUCA impacts the modern world and provides lessons for effective leadership in a complex, fast-changing environment.
The telecom industry faces significant challenges including decreasing revenues and EBITDA. CEO strategies show similarities around data monetization, partnerships, and vertical expansion. However, operators are constrained by their ability to invest and monetize networks. This has led to a fragmented value chain and the need to rethink business models through options like diversification, changing business models, cost cutting, consolidation, or shareholders stepping down. The online media industry winners have leveraged search, social networks, hardware/software integration, while losers faced challenges in business models and product dependence.
A.T. Kearney: Positioning for the Telematics Tipping PointbengillTU
Here is one of the keynote presentations from the hugely successful Insurance Telematics USA 2010.
During the presentation, two Vice Presidents from A.T. Kearney answer the following questions:
- How will the insurance telematics market evolve in the next 3-5 years?
- What are the implications for insurance companies?
- How should insurance companies position themselves for success in the face of uncertainty?
To view the presentation WITH AUDIO then click here:
http://www.telematicsupdate.com/insurance-telematics/presentations.shtml
Roland berger best_practices_in_new_product_development_20130419Alberto Garcia Romera
Successful companies focus on product value rather than merely product costs. They apply more new product development methods and use them more intensely, achieving 11% higher success rates. The right combination of methods from different functions, like purchasing and R&D, leads to 15% greater success. Establishing top management support and structuring the development process also helps maximize new product value and profitability.
Big data is getting bigger, creating more challenges and opening more opportunities for businesses. This McKinsey presentation argues that CMOs and sales leaders need to take 5 actions: harness their data, put data at the heart of the organization,
The document provides an economic and market update and outlook for November 2012. It discusses recent performance and trends in global equity markets, the Indian economy and key sectors. The overall outlook is cautiously positive. The Indian economy is seen to have bottomed out, and further monetary easing and fiscal policy actions are expected to revive growth going forward. Private sector banks are favored over public sector banks based on better Q2 results.
The document summarizes the performance of Global Banking and Markets in the first half of 2008. Key points include:
- Global Banking and Markets contributed 26% of the group's pre-tax profits despite challenging market conditions.
- Strength in emerging markets like Asia Pacific and Latin America helped offset losses elsewhere.
- Writedowns were taken on subprime, credit, and leveraged loan exposures totaling $3.9 billion.
- Two of the group's structured investment vehicles, Cullinan and Asscher, had their assets transferred or sold into three securities investment conduits to provide more stable funding.
The document discusses the economic outlook for Asia in light of the global financial crisis. It finds that while emerging Asia led global growth to date, the region is now more exposed and correlated to economic conditions in the US and advanced economies. A downturn in the US is estimated to slow growth in emerging Asia by 0.25-0.5 percentage points. However, country exposures vary widely within Asia. The outlook notes downside risks remain significant given increased trade and financial linkages with the US.
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1. Competence Center Financial Services 1
Markus Böhme, Kiarash Fatehi, Pierre Reboul
Investment Banking Outlook Summer 2012 –
At a turning point?
Competence Center Financial Services
2. Our theses in a nutshell
> lobal investment banking revenues continue their roller coaster ride. After a soft second
G
half of 2011, they strongly rebounded in the first quarter of 2012. We project a weaker
Q2 with full year revenues in the EUR 200-260 bn range, depending on how the sovereign
debt crisis in Europe unfolds.
erformance strongly differed both within and among peer groups: Global universal
P
players with a higher focus on the fixed income business on average outperformed
investment banks with a lower focus on fixed income. Many midsized and smaller players
in developed markets came under pressure. At the same time many peers in emerging
markets roared full steam ahead.
ven though these trends reflect structural changes such as revenue shifting to emerging
E
markets and new regulations such as Basel 2.5/3, they are also harbingers of the squeeze
that investment banks are going to face. Unless banks make major changes to their
business models, their Return on Equity is likely to remain in single digits and many
peers underperforming today may see their economic model even more challenged
over the next 3 to 5 years.
ixing individual and industry economics will not come easy. Even with rounds of
F
productivity measures, structural overcapacity still largely exists. We believe that around
75,000 jobs and one third of industry risk taking capability are still on the line. Value
chains, therefore, will undergo transformation and true exits – which we have hardly
seen so far – will be inevitable over the next 3 to 5 years.
e think that now is the time for banks to step decisively up to this challenge to reap
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early mover benefits by a bespoke mix of swiftly implementing sustainable models,
capturing growth opportunities mainly in emerging markets, and in some cases position
themselves as a solution provider for those players who need to consequently refocus
their value chains to survive.
3. Competence Center Financial Services 3
Looking Back
August 2007 marked a watershed event in global investment banking1). Liquidity began dry-
ing up in asset backed securities markets and events eventually unfolded into the subprime
crisis that claimed banks throughout the US and Europe. Almost five years later we are look-
ing at an industry that has gone through a roller coaster ride as global revenue pools tanked
in 2008, rose out of the ashes in 2009 and subsequently hovered back to approximately
pre crisis levels before further decreasing by more than 10% from 2010 to 2011 (exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1: To hell and back – After their post crisis peak global investment banking
revenues are coming in around 2006 levels
Investment banking revenues1), 2011 Revenue trend, 2006-2012e
[EUR bn] [EUR bn]
270 265 260
Emerging 240
~ 75 ~5 Markets
18%
23% 230
WE EE 200
~ 70 ~ 10 28%
North America Japan
~5 ~45
Emerging Asia Developed
MEA 82%
Markets 77%
72%
~ 10
Latin America ~10
A/NZ
2006 2011 Bear Base Opti-
Developed Emerging 2010 case case mistic
2012
1) Adjusted IBD, Equities, and FICC revenues (before loan loss provisions) calculated scenarios
at constant 2011 exchange rates
Source: Roland Berger; company disclosure and presentations
On the heels of this roller coaster ride Basel 2.5 and other new regulatory requirements are
starting to kick in and despite myriad rescue attempts, the European sovereign debt crisis
has heightened in intensity. With dark clouds continuing to cast a shadow over financial
markets and economic activity, where does investment banking go next?
1) e define global investment banking as the collective IBD (MA, ECM, DCM, structured origination), Equities, and
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FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities) businesses and revenue streams generated by global, regional,
and local players active in these lines of business.
4. 4 Investment Banking Outlook Summer 2012 – At a turning point?
We believe that the answer lies in first understanding the underlying structural changes
that the industry has experienced and thinking of scenarios in how the market will develop.
We see three main shifts that are transforming the industry:
ontinued shifts of revenue pools to emerging markets, first and foremost to Asia with
C
Brazil being a second hotspot.
hile the FICC roller coaster ride and DVA/CVA effects2) have been the key drivers behind
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ups and downs, they have also somewhat masked that Equities and IBD businesses are
stagnating and contracting in developed markets.
any players will continue to see their economic models challenged. The top 16 global
M
investment banks and universal players took a double hit when markets softened in
2011, just as new regulation such as Basel 2.5 kicked in boosting capital consumption
especially for European based players. In 2011 the game changed and many local players
in developed markets lost their edge as shrinking market shares and revenues propelled
cost-income-ratios into unsustainable territory. In addition regulatory headwind puts
further pressure on capital efficiency.
Exhibit 2: Despite a strong Q1 the full year 2012 revenue pool might only yield
a small uptick and substantial downside risk persists
JUNE 2012 PROJECTION
Quarterly IB revenues, Q1 2010 – Q1 20121) IB revenues by product groups, 2006-2012e
[EUR bn] [EUR bn]
88 270 265
85 260
80 FICC – roller coaster ride
240
230 Normalization vs. extra-
ordinary Q1 2009/10 levels
200
62 Weak flow and position losses
60 59 FICC
57 in Q3/4 2011
Once again subdued activity
? after Q1 2012 rebound
43
39 Equities – softening
Heavy dip in Q4 2011
Equities Softer activity with limited
Q1 pickup
IBD – softening
IBD Downhill from strong Q2 2011
Limited pipeline
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2006 2010 2011 Bear Base Opti-
2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 case case mistic
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
2012 scenarios
2010 2010 2011 2011 2012
1) Adjusted IBD, Equities, and FICC revenues (before loan loss provisions) calculated at constant 2011 exchange rates
Source: Roland Berger; company disclosure and presentations
2) ebt Value Adjustments and Credit Value Adjustments: Mark-to-market changes in the value of own debt issued
D
and counterparty exposure as mandated by IAS but often recorded in banks' IB and especially FICC divisions.
5. Competence Center Financial Services 5
The picture is not homogenous – for example, many German small- and midsized players
were among those hit hardest. In sharp contrast many – especially Asian and Latin American
– emerging market local players continued to grow profitably.
Exhibit 3: Not all players are born equal – At least five peer groups compete
with distinct business and economic models
Peer group IB economics (Basel 2.5)1), 2011 [%] Examples Business Ø EM rev. Ø IB/CIB
Note: Bubble size indicates peer group IB revenues2) of players model share3) share4)
Global IBs IBD, FICC, Equity ~20% ~100%
8 players Global
110
Global
100
Universals
90 Global IBD, FICC, ~30% ~60%
Global IBs Universals Equity
iency (CIR)
Developed 8 players Relatively
80
Markets Locals global
70
Advanced Emerging focus 90% ~35%
Cost effici
60 Advanced Internationals
15 players Mixed player ~35% ~45%
Internationals
50 Developed focus minimal ~30%
40 Developed FICC focus 0-5% ~10%
Emerging Markets Locals Markets Locals Limited
30 (Banks + Brokers) 50 players IBD/Equity
Country focus
20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Emerging Country focus 95-100% ~10%
Market Locals Mostly bifurcated:
Capital efficiency (Rev/RWA) 50 players Banks vs. brokers
1) Estimate, assuming 70% on disclosed B2.5/3 impact on CT1 ratio will come through CIB Markets' RWA uplift
2) Revenues calculated at constant 2011 exchange rates
3) Emerging market revenue share of total peer group revenue 4) Investment Banking revenue share of total CIB peer group revenues
Source: Roland Berger; company disclosure and presentations
What Lies Ahead
So far in 2012, these trends are continuing to affect the industry. First quarter results
strongly rebounded from the second half of 2011, which was characterized by higher risk,
drying up of client flows and position markdowns as the sovereign debt crisis unfolded
(exhibit 2).
However, not all ships were lifted equally by the tide. Once again emerging markets players
roared full steam ahead. Small and midsized locals in developed countries, meanwhile,
saw a mixed picture with many of them registering only a moderate recovery or even further
revenue contraction against the global trend. Among global players the field was split but
on average universal players, who enjoyed broader sources of flow such as FX and rates
businesses driven by transaction banking, seemed to fare better (exhibit 3 and 4).
6. 6 Investment Banking Outlook Summer 2012 – At a turning point?
Exhibit 4: Recent performance diverges both between as well as
within each peer group
Contracting Moderate recovery Rebounding Continued growth
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
2010 2011 2012e 2010 2011 2012e 2010 2011 2012e 2010 2011 2012e
Global
Universals Global Universals
Globals
rebound stronger
Global IBs than IBs
Developed market
players increasingly
Developed
Locals
Markets
under pressure
Advanced
EM franchises as
growth driver?
Advanced
Emerging
Markets
Continued growth?
Locals
Source: Roland Berger; company disclosure and presentations
However as banks close the books on the second quarter and will begin reporting results
in a few weeks, we expect to see a sharp drop off from the first quarter. Although this sort of
Q1 to Q2 drop has been more the rule than the exception over the last few years (exhibit 2),
the questions that persist are just how bad will the drop off be and where do we go from here?
Even assuming that the sovereign crisis slowly abates, we would expect the full year outlook to
be just around 2011 levels – a year that was rough, but not nearly as negative as 2008. Nobody
can and wants to project the impact of a euro meltdown. In this case all bets would be off. But
even if the sovereign debt crisis is still as intense by the end of the year as today, the downside
for investment banks for the rest of the year will be substantial. In this case the revenue pool
may shrink by another 15% to about EUR 200bn. Even under rosier scenarios, with a fairly
quick recovery and a much more favorable trading environment and deal pipeline, revenues
seem unlikely to revert to 2010 levels (exhibit 2).
As a result of this challenging environment one European and North American player after
another has already lowered their RoE targets: 12 to15% became the new standard down
from the earlier 25% targets. We believe however, that the industry's economic model is more
challenged than those lowered targets suggest. Even when factoring in the stream of restruc-
turings and lay offs already announced, the industry will only return to single digit post tax RoEs
on average. Our base case scenario envisions a 9% RoE and in our bear case, a mere 5% RoE
(exhibit 5).
7. Competence Center Financial Services 7
Exhibit 5: Unless markets revert to a bull trajectory it is bye-bye to double digit RoEs
for 2012 except for high growth pockets in emerging markets
Industry RoE1) – 2012 Base case scenario [%] Peer groups RoE range [%]
0% 20%
Ø 2010 RoE: 15%
11
9 Global IBs
Ø 2011 RoE: 7% 5
Global Universals
Bear Base Optimistic
Developed
Scenario Case Scenario
Markets Players
Cost-income Emerging Markets
ratio [%] 80 70 65
Players
1) After-tax, assuming an effective tax rate of 30% for all peer groups
Source: Roland Berger; company disclosure and presentations
Once again emerging markets focused players are poised to deliver higher returns – provided
there will not be a sharp reversal of fortunes, and confidence falters tanking emerging markets
growth.
However, for an average developed market focused player or even global players driven by their
European and US businesses, these single digit RoE's lead to an unsustainable trajectory. On
the other side IB players face even more headwind since they are less focused on FICC and
hence benefitted less from the Q1 revenue uptick. In addition they lack regular FICC flows from
transaction banking.
Over the next 3 to 5 years, European players will face further headwind as the full effect of
proposed regulations such as Basel 3 kick in, squeezing capital and economics. We do not
know when exactly this will happen and how long local regulators will allow for transition.
Despite that uncertainty we are sure that post tax industry RoEs might remain in single digits
therefore falling some 7% to 8% short of targets unless more drastic action is taken (exhibit 6).
8. 8 Investment Banking Outlook Summer 2012 – At a turning point?
Exhibit 6: What would it take to continue to sustainably earn positive
economic profits in the IB industry?
Mid-term perspective RoE [%] How could the profit gap be closed?
Capital reduction of ~30% of industry RWAs in
order to overcompensate Basel III uplift
Larger, consolidated books
7-8 Risk management activity transferred to
institutional investors ('shadowbanking 2.0'?)
4
12-15 Capacity
Cost reduction of industry cost base by around
9-11 one-third reduction
5-7 ~15% headcount reduction and exit
d it
Reduced compensation benefits of around 10%
pressure
15-20% decrease of non-compensation budget
Target Baseline Basel 3 Mid-term Profita-
RoE 2012 effect baseline bility gap
~10% Repricing
Limited roll over increased capital requirements
Baseline 2012 given by base
case and optimistic scenario Capacity and demand gap starts to close
Source: Roland Berger
Restoring growth
Such gloomy scenarios make it impossible for most European and US players to retain their
capital allocations. To close this RoE gap the industry would truly need to reduce capacity
to sustainable levels. Evidence suggests that this reduction has yet to occur:
ew players have truly exited full lines of business. For example RBS and UniCredit have
F
exited from parts of Cash Equities and Credit Agricole, Santander and BBVA have left
commodities, but none of them was a major player in these business lines anyway.
ostly, headcount reductions have increased individual players' productivity but did not re-
M
duce capacity in the overall industry. Furthermore, announced reductions take longer to work
their way through the system – of about 25,000 job cuts announced by the top 16 players
in mid 2011 only 15,000 were realized by year end because attrition came down sharply.
ome (especially large) players successfully mitigated large parts of the Basel 2.5 driven
S
RWA (Risk Weighted Assets) uplift through RWA reduction programs. These programs how-
ever, largely pertained to legacy asset sell offs and transfer of certain securitization tranches
and other assets whose capital consumption would have skyrocketed under Basel 2.5 to
hedge funds and other institutional investors – a space often coined as 'shadow banking'.
The industry's client focused trading and risk management capacity itself has hardly been
reduced.
9. Competence Center Financial Services 9
We feel that real capacity reduction is the only way to restore economics in the mid-term. A
shake out with real product line exits, capacity reducing and efficiency boosting mergers and
joint ventures as well as a fundamental reduction in vertical integration in particular for local
players will be required to achieve 12 to 15% RoE assuming a flat to moderate revenue pool
trajectory (exhibit 6).
One scenario to close the collective RoE gap would mean:
educing industry RWAs by about 30% or close to 2 trillion euros – this would mean we
R
are heading towards 'shadow banking 2.0' as hedge funds would have to pick up half of
this amount – with the other half requiring a real consolidation into fewer, more capital
efficient books.
epricing (and hence increasing the revenue pool at flatter volumes) by about 10%, which
R
would not seem realistic without reduction of overcapacity.
educing the industry cost base by around one third – even with sizable cuts on the non
R
compensation related cost, further structural compensation adjustments, including the effects
of guarantees and the effect of large albeit deferred bonuses, as well as sizable headcount
reductions would be required. We would estimate that about 15% of the 500,000 jobs
in the industry would have to be cut. Unprecedented rounds of layoffs – well beyond the
10,000 already announced but not executed – would become inevitable.
How can the industry and individual banks mend their economics – especially when the weight
of their portfolio is not geared towards emerging growth markets? We predict four key develop-
ments (exhibit 7):
Exhibit 7: Eventually, industry players will need to take radical action –
Four major areas for profitable change
Next wave of headcount reduction and Universals withdrawing capital
productivity based compensation Lower risk taking capacity for some players
Complexity reduction A real wave of (product line) exits
Process re-engineering and automation
Stepped-up efficiency
Reduced over-capacity
programs
Refocused + industrialized
Battle for (emerging)
( g g)
value chains
growth markets
Challenged local players truly refocus on
unique client value proposition and scale Global leaders 'localizing'
back trading platforms Local leaders professionalizing
Large platforms leveraged into true bank
for bank offerings
Industry utilities emerging
Source: Roland Berger
10. 10 Investment Banking Outlook Summer 2012 – At a turning point?
refocusing and industrialization of value chains is necessary. Winners will evade the
A
looming shake out by refocusing on their true edge and value proposition. For smaller players
this might mean concentrating on sales, basic structuring and counterparty risk absorption
with strict focus on their privileged corporate banking and other quasi-captive franchises.
Likewise industry utilities and true bank for bank leaders will emerge to fill this void while
other large players might choose to focus on certain products, client segments and regional
niches, in which critical mass can be reached independent of a full scale offering.
oving fast will be essential and earning the right to grow and consolidate will mean
M
stepping -up efficiency programs.
ooner or later the industry will tackle its over-capacity as mid-sized players that neither
S
managed to focus nor to catch up with volume leaders will need to exit some product lines.
ome capacity will continue to shift into emerging markets and more and more bankers
S
will head from London and New York to Sao Paulo, Singapore, and Hong Kong as well as
places like Jakarta. However, there will be more aspirants than opportunities as the battle
for emerging growth markets heats up: Global firms build their presence on the ground
(especially beyond hubs such as Hong Kong and Singapore). Regional champions such
as Standard Chartered in Asia or Itau in Latin America invest into their IB capabilities and
local players get serious on various forms of IB, CIB or merchant banking growth.
Moving decisively and robustly executing this transformation while maintaining day to day
focus on capturing business and managing risk in volatile and adverse market conditions will
be paramount. Perhaps another five years down the road we will look back on 2012 as the
year that decided the fate of banks that survived and those banks that did not.
11. Competence Center Financial Services 11
Contact
Markus Böhme
Partner
50 Collyer Quay, #10-02 OUE Bayfront
Singapore, 049321 Singapore
Phone: +65 65 97-4577
E-mail: markus.boehme@rolandberger.com
Kiarash Fatehi
Partner
OpernTurm, Bockenheimer Landstraße 2-8
60306 Frankfurt, Germany
Phone: +49 69 29924-60
E-mail: kiarash.fatehi@rolandberger.com
Pierre Reboul
Partner
11, rue de Prony
75017 Paris, France
Phone: +33 1 53670-325
E-mail: pierre.reboul@rolandberger.com
12. Amsterdam
12 Investment Banking Outlook Summer 2012 – At a turning point?
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