The document provides a weekly market snapshot for October 9, 2009, highlighting key economic indicators such as the ISM non-manufacturing index and the falling jobless claims, alongside concerns sparked by the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate hike. Retail sales and consumer price index data for September are anticipated to be influential in the upcoming economic calendar. Additionally, the document outlines various financial statistics, including market indices, interest rates, and commodity prices.

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Weekly Market Snapshot
October 9, 2009
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Market Commentary
by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
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The economic data calendar was thin. The Institute for Supply
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Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 50.9 in September,
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compared to 48.4 in August – 50 represents the breakeven level; anything Houston, TX 77057
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August – adjusted for inflation, so it appears that net exports will be a slight
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drag on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2009.
Jobless claims fell somewhat, but there’s a fair amount of volatility in the
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numbers at this time of year.
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The bigger story was the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to through
raise short-term interest rates, which renewed concerns about the dollar and RAYMOND JAMES
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sent gold prices to record highs. Australia’s economy was in very good
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shape heading into the global recession and the RBA cut rates sharply. The
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country’s growth has been better than expected and Australia is likely to be
close to trend in 2010 – so there is less of a need for accommodative
monetary policy. While many may see this as the start of a trend (other
central banks hiking rates), interest rate increases are likely to be delayed in
most major economies.
Next week, the economic calendar heats up. The reports on retail sales and
the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should receive the most weight. Treasury is
expected to report a $1.4 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2009, lower than

2. estimated earlier. Retail sales will reflect a pullback in vehicle sales, but
should be moderate ex-autos. The CPI should be up moderately.
Indices
Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 9786.87 9509.28 11.51%
NASDAQ 2123.93 2057.48 34.68%
S&P 500 1065.48 1029.85 17.96%
MSCI EAFE 1567.44 1524.76 26.67%
Russell 2000 607.75 583.75 21.68%
Consumer Money Rates
Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 4.50
Fed Funds 0.25 1.50
30-year mortgage 4.93 5.87
Currencies
Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.607 1.731
Dollars per Euro 1.479 1.365
Japanese Yen per Dollar 88.39 99.14
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.052 1.128
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.25 12.32
Commodities
Last 1-year ago

3. Crude Oil 71.69 88.95
Gold 1055.11 907.62
Bond Rates
Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.94 0.88
10-year treasury 3.28 3.34
10-year municipal (TEY) 4.51 4.89
Treasury Yield Curve – 10/9/2009
S&P Sector Performance Charts – 10/9/2009

4. Economic Calendar
October 12 — Columbus Day Holiday (bond market
closed)
October 13 — Treasury Budget (September and
FY2009, tentative)
October 14 — Import Prices (September)
Retail Sales (September)
Business Inventories (August)
FOMC Minutes (September 22-23)
October 15 — Jobless Claims (week ending October
10)
Consumer Price Index (September)
Real Earnings (September)
Empire State Manufacturing Index

5. (October)
Philly Fed Index (October)
October 16 — Industrial Production (September)
Consumer Sentiment (mid-October)
October 21 — Fed Beige Book
November 3/4 — FOMC Meeting
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks
involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic
and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above
material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not
guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends
mentioned will continue in the future. Municipal bond interest is not subject to federal
income tax but may be subject to AMT, state or local taxes. Investing involves risk
and investors may incur a profit or a loss.
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and,
if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US
government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal
and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting
short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant
potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and
there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are
rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than
more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt
insured revenue bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered
reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.
Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business October 8th, 2009.
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