Mohamed Badraoui, National Agricultural Research Institute, Morocco

1. 1
High expectations for COP22 after COP21 success,
in particular in Africa
COP21 : a historical milestone in the fight
against climate change
COP22 : strong expectations to make it a
"COP for action" but also a "COP for Africa"
Translate the progress achieved in Paris in
concrete terms
Climate finance mechanisms, technology transfers,
transparency, NDCs review
Target to limit global warming to 2°C officially
adopted with aim for 1.5°C
At least $100 Bn / year to support
developing countries
Pledge from developed countries
1. Nationally Determined Contributions 2. Greenhouse gas
Target to be carbon neutral in 2050
All GHG2 emissions compensated by carbon sinks
Commitments from countries in the fight
against climate change (NDC1)
Country-level mitigation and adaptation measures
Place the most vulnerable regions, especially
Africa at the core of the negotiations
Especially agricultural productivity
and climate resilience / adaptation issues

2. 2
Agriculture in Africa is a critical part of the solution to the
global challenges raised by climate change and food security
Mitigation Adaptation
Reduction of GHG1
emissions
Carbon sequestration in
soils and forests
Development of a productive
and resilient agriculture
1. Greenhouse gas 2. African forests amount to ~20% of forests cover globally 3. By 2030 4. According to FAO
Source : World Resources Institute 2012, Journal of Resources and Ecology 2012
African agriculture is a major asset
against Climate Change,
which we need to preserve
~20%
of African GHG emissions
come from agriculture...
... accounting to less than ~1%
of global GHG emissions today
~ 20%
of global mitigation
potential of soils3
~ 30%
of global mitigation
potential of forests2
60%
of uncultivated arable lands
globally
> x5
potential productivity gains of
African agriculture4
African agriculture could become
an asset for global Food security,
which we need to develop

3. 3
Agricultural
productivity &
infrastructure gaps
Food insecurity and
poverty
Climate change
Lack of long-term investment
(subsistance agricultural,
uncertainties, emergencies...)
Reduction of soils
carbon sequestration
potential and
emissions increase
Deforestation
Water
scarcity
Soils
degradation
Difficulties in adopting good
agricultural practices
(ex. préservation...)
Investment need in
soils, forestry and
water management
Climate migrations
Environmental impact Socio-economic impact
Source: BCG analyses
Water stress
Extreme climate events
epidemic
The Paris Agreement recognized the vulnerability of Food
Security to Climate Change...

4. 4
The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity has
negative consequences on socio-economic development
Source: BCG analyses
Agricultural
productivity gap
Climate change
Reduction of soils
carbon sequestration
potential and
emissions increase
Deforestation
Water scarcity
Soils
degradation
Competition to
access natural
resources
Demographic
pressure
Unemployment
Political unrest
Environmental
impact
Socio-economic
impact
Rural exodus
Displaced people
Forced
migrations
(wars...)
Climate migrations
Food insecurity
and poverty

5. 5
Adaptation, Agriculture and Africa do not capture their fair
share of current Climate funding ("tripe bias")
0
100
200
300
400
Mitigation
Adaptation
Public
~$143 B
17%
Total (private
& public)
~$ 390 B
6%
0
100
200
300
400
Africa
& Middle-East
Japan,
Korea,
and Israel
Americas
Western
Europe
Asia-
Pacific
~$ 390 B
5%
10%
12%
24%
31%
Total financing (public & private)
400
200
100
0
Water
treatment
Transportation
Energy
efficiency
Renewables
~$143 B
4%
10%
15%
18%
34%
Agriculture, forests
and soils
Public financing
Adaptation Agriculture
4% of public Climate funds
~40 % of worldwide jobs
vs.
Africa
<5% of total Climate funds
vs.
16% of worldwide population
20% of developing countries'
population
6% of total Climate funds1
17% of public Climate funds
vs.
50 % for a "balanced share"2
between Adaptation and Mitigation
1. Private and public funding 2. COP 15, 2009 : '“provide new and additional resources […] approaching $30 billion for the period 2010–2012, with balanced allocation between adaptation and
mitigation.”
Source : experts' interviews, CPI Report 'Global landscape of Climate Finance 2015'

6. 6
Several years of public under-investment in the African
agriculture
1. The mix of investment sources varies significantly across countries
Source: Identifying opportunities for climate-smart agriculture investments in Africa – FAO (2011), OECD stat. APD (2014), World Bank / IBRD Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (2010)
Public spending for Agriculture in Africa: Trends and Composition, Fan et al. April 2009; Agriculture in Africa, Transformation & outlook, NEPAD, 2013
Annual investments (financed and non financed) for the
development and adaptation of agriculture in Africa ($B)
10%
4%
5%
5%
6%
0
5
10
15
19901980 Objective
of the
CAADP
20102000
6%
5%
6%
10%
11%
0
5
10
15
2010
-5 points
2014200019901980
Official development aid in the African
agriculture has decreased in the past 30 years
The share of public investment in the African
agriculture has decreased in the past 30 years
Evolution of the official development assistance
dedicated to agriculture (1980 – 2014)
Maputo (2003)
commitment: dedicate
10% of public expenses to
agriculture
Massive investments required to improve the African agriculture productivity, make up for CC effects
and mitigate the risk of decreasing sequestration potential of African soils

7. 7
24
16
11Public funds
Annual investments
required by 2050
Private funds
52
Annual investment
"gap"
Annual investments for the
agricultural development and
farming adaptation to CC
35
The gap in funding of climate-resilient agriculture & rural
development in Africa could be filled by climate funds
1. The mix of investment sources varies significantly across countries
Source: Identifying opportunities for climate-smart agriculture investments in Africa – FAO (2011), OECD stat. APD (2014), World Bank / IBRD Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (2010)
~70%1
~30%1
Annual investments (financed and non financed)
for the development and adaptation of agriculture in Africa
($B)
~$52B / yr
Estimated amount necessary to
ensure the development and
adaptation of African agriculture
$16B /yr
Investment "gap", which could
be filled by climate funds as
"climate-smart" agricultural
development and to make up for
the impact of CC on African
agricultural productivity

8. 8
Improving agricultural productivity in Africa yields benefits
for Africa and for the world
For Africa
Adaptation to climate change
Improvement of food security
Major contribution to UN
Sustainable Development Goals
For the world
Preservation and improvement of
soils carbon sequestration potential
in Africa
Reduction of GHG emissions
Contribution to global food security

9. 9
An initiative for the Adaptation of African Agriculture ("AAA")
to climate change under the global climate action agenda
Contribute to the Global Climate
Action Agenda and accelerate
"AAA" projects development
"AAA"
Leverage the Instruments recommended by the UNFCCC for "AAA"
III I
Ensure increased funding and
facilitated access for "AAA" projects
to climate finance
II
Increased funding for the adaptation
of African agriculture
I.1
Conditions for an effective access
to climate funds
(eligibility and accreditation criteria)
I.3
Commitment to monitor climate
funds effectively disbursed
I.2
Agricultural Water management
(FAO water scarcity initiative)
II.2
Climate risk management
II.3
Technology transfer
Capacity building
(policy making, CC project
organization...)
South-South
cooperation
Negotiation and
advocacy
Solutions
Financing solutions (SHF)
II.4
Soils management
II.1
Soils fertility
Carbon sequestration in soils
("4 for 1000")
Reconversion to fruit
trees and agroforestry

10. 10
The "AAA" initiative fits in an existing environment of African
initiatives and political statements
The Abidjan
Declaration
The Dakar Conference
The Comprehensive
Africa Agricultural
Development Program
The Adaptation
in Africa Initiative
Ensuring resilient agricultural
development in Africa
Putting agriculture at the
center of African public
policies
Defining a roadmap for the
transformation of agriculture
in Africa
April 2016
2003
(Maputo Declaration)
October 2015Announced in Dec. 2015
Ensuring resilient economic
development for Africa,
5 key principles
• Enable African ownership
and leadership
• Ensure accountability and
transparency
• Ensure inclusion
• Leverage regional
complementarities
• Evidence-based planning
and decision making
processes
5 priorities:
• Set up multiple nutrition
programs
• Improve agricultural
productivity
• Develop agricultural
activities (value chain
approach)
• Increase funding for
agriculture
• Support the inclusion of
women and young people
4 main objectives
• Scale-up adaptation-
related activities in Africa
• Policy and institutional
capacity building
• Increase investments and
funding
• Improve climate
information services
3 opportunities for action
• Build Governments'
capacities
• Develop climate resilient
agricultural policies
• Reinforce financial and
technical support to
adaptation
African initiatives for agriculture and
adaptation
Political statements for agriculture and
adaptation in Africa

11. 11
The "AAA" initiative contributes to the achievement of SDGs1
"AAA" is at the
core of several
Sustainable
Development
Goals (SDGs)
Increase of farmers
revenues
Food security for
all
Better nutrition
Impact on
education in rural
areas
Impact on women
employment and
education
Multiplier effect of
agricultural GNP
on the economy
Mitigation and
adaptation to CC
Soils, forests and
natural
ecosystems
conservation
Governance
capacity building
Technical and
financial
innovations
Improved
standards of living
in rural areas
Sustainability of
agricultural output
South-South
cooperation
and PPP
Core
Strong
link
Indirect link
1. Sustainable Development Goals 2. Millenium Development Goals
Source: UNDP
Limitation of
rural exodus
Improved
agricultural
water mngt

12. 12
The "AAA" is an initiative for all stakeholders involved in
climate change and agricultural development
Note : Initiative's promoters targeted by the syndication process
African and international stakeholders invited to rally and support the initiative
"AAA"
International
org. and
Donors
Private
sector
(farmers,
companies...)
Scientific
community
NGOs
and
civil society
Governments
(Africa and
rest of the world)
• Design climate-smart and efficient
agricultural policies
• Build capacities
• Provide resources and
expertise
• Provide financial and
implementation support
to agricultural projects
• Adopt good agricultural
practices
• Facilitate technology
transfer
• Develop innovations
• Identify relevant projects to
be supported
• Develop R&D partnerships
with local universities
• Advocate for "AAA"
initiative
• Share best practices
• Build capacities
• Provide financial support
• Facilitate technology
transfer
• Facilitate capacity
building and best
practices sharing

13. 13
AAA organization: overall positionning at the nexus of
climate and agricultural development spheres
Agricultural
Ministries and
agencies
Governments
Local &
international
NGOs
Proposed
projects
Pre-selected
projects proposed to
donors
Agricultural development
Climate change
Country
interfaces
enabling
sourcing "AAA"
projects eligible
for donors' funds
Assistance to
project structuring
and packaging
(orchestrate
technical
assistance...)
Interfaces with
donors to
present projects
that are in line
with their
priorities
Climate-smart "know how"
(Adaptation & Mitigation)
Sourcing
Structuring &
Packaging
Matching
"AAA" organization
Projects
Donors

14. 14
• Setting-up of a facility
structure
• Fundraising (operating
costs)
• Identification of first
projects
• Staffing: < 10
• Enrichment of project
catalogue ("opportunistic"
approach)
• Support to and matching of
first projects
• Operations across all
Africa
• Foundation ?
AAA organization roadmap to 2020
Launch at
COP22 with core
partners and key
core team
already in place
(Nov. '16)
First projects
proposed to donors
(S2 2017)
"AAA" structure is
fully operational
Launch Ramp-up Expansion
2020: Entry into force of
the Paris Agreement

15. 15
~ 50 stakeholders support the "AAA", including governments,
international organizations , civil society, and private sector
q Key donors and international development organizations, concerned by
adaptation of agriculture in Africa, are involved in the design and promotion of
"AAA", contributing internal expertise and resources.
q 28 African countries and many other European countries supporting the "AAA".
q Private sector companies with track-record in developing "AAA"-like projects
(agricultural development, climate project finance, capacity building,...) in the
framework of their social and environmental responsibilities could contribute
significantly to rural transformation in Africa,
q Over 30 National scientists and 30 international scientific experts participating
to the "AAA" Scientific Committees managed by INRA, sourcing "AAA"-like
projects

16. 16
Synergy-coalition-alliances with other initiatives in the
framework of the global climate action agenda
q African Adaptation Initiative (AAI) launched at COP21 by Egypt as chair of
AMCEN of the African Union, and ported by AGN.
q French initiative 4/1000 launched at COP21 on C sequestration & agroecology..
q FAO Global framework of water scarcity in Agriculture.
q UN climate resilience initiative (Anticipate, Absorb, Reshape) A2R
q Sustainable Oases initiative (SOI) launched by Morocco at COP22
q Africa renewable energy initiative (AREI): nexus energy-agriculture.
q LDN initiative of the UNCCD.
q …etc

17. 17
1. United Nations Framework Convention Climate Change
q Up-stream integration, partnership, contractualization
and impact analyses at different scales are key principals
to ensure sustaibnable transformative rural development.
q Capacity building of agricultural negociators.
q Need for setting up the metrics of adaptation. How to
measure adaptation to CC?
q Pertinent climate & soil data are needed for Africa: good
prospect for collaboration and partnership.
Conclusions: many challenges

18. 18
Conclusions: many challenges (2)
q Agricultural technology transfer for developing countries.
National polices and adoption by smallholder farmers
communities ?
q Mobilize significant climate funds to prepare and
implement impact oriented agricultural & rural
development projects.
q More synergy between the 3 UN conventions and their
subsidiary bodies.

19. 19
Key Messages
q Global environmental and social changes like climate
change, high pressure on natural resources and
globalization of trade are impacting on 20% GDP and 50%
of employment in developing countries and inducing
massive migration;
q The degree of resilience and adaptation to such big
changes is becoming more difficult to achieve because
both public domestic investments and international aid
for development to African agriculture was decreasing
during the last 30 years, making African economies more
and more vulnerable.

20. 20
Key Messages (2)
q UNFCCC COP22 (Marrakech 2016) was the COP of
actions to implement Paris agreement - Morocco
launched a new initiative for the adaptation of African
agriculture to climate change (AAA or Triple A).

21. THANK YOU