1. The report examines the impacts of climate change and community adaptation strategies in Western Nepal. 2. Key findings include increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, more frequent droughts and floods negatively impacting agriculture, livestock, health, water resources and forests. 3. Communities have adopted adaptation strategies like alternative crops, improved livestock, water conservation, renewable energy to reduce their vulnerability.

1. Climate Change
Impacts and
Adaptation
Strategies by Poor
STUDY and Excluded
REPORT Communities in
Western Nepal:
A Comprehensive Study
of Banganga River Basin:
Arghakhanchi and
Kapilvastu, Nepal
BY:
DHRUBA GAUTAM
KRISHNA GAUTAM
DIPAK POUDEL
ActionAid Nepal
NATIONAL DISASTER RISK-REDCUTION December 2007
CENTRE NEPAL (NDRC NEPAL) Kathmandu
BANESHWOR, KATHMANDU

2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to extend our sincere gratitude to all persons who contributed to
this study in many different ways: by sharing their experience, thoughts and
opinions, and by contributing time, advice and hospitality. Therefore, this report
has been possible because of the support of so many people personally and
professionally.
We are particularly indebted to community and CBO members of two VDCs
under two districts for their patience, co-operation and good understanding
without their support it would not have been possible to complete this study. We
were encouraged when people accepted our presence, answered our queries
passionately and made us internalize the practical difficulties of the area made by
the recent flood, landslides, droughts, cold wave, etc (all disaster hazards).
Therefore, we remain obliged to them.
We would like to thank Mr. Shyam Sundar Jnavaly, Sr. Theme Leader, EDM,
AAN for his valuable inputs in finalizing the study framework and technical as
well as managerial support throughout the study period. We wish to thank the
SSDC and Sahaj Nepal officials especially Mr. Krishna, Mr. Yadav and Mr.
Umesh for sharing their update information and situation at the ground. They
have been valuable resource persons and accompanied with us during the field
visits too. Similarly the excellent supports were provided by Indreni Rural
Development Centre (IRDC) in managing the community of Banganga basin for
excellent fieldwork.
We thank CRC officials, particularly Mr. Nanda Kandangwa, RC, for their
support in managing logistics doing field work. We have learnt many things
from school teachers, students, and other key informant about the changing
behaviours of the people with changing climatic conditions. The information
provided by these people was also extremely valuable. Their observations during
the field work were extremely valuable sources of information for us.
Thanks.
Dhruba Gautam Study Coordinator,
Krishna Gautam, Field Coordinator
Dipak Paudel, Technical Coordinator
National Disaster Risk-reduction Centre Nepal (NDRC-Nepal)
Baneshwor, Kathmandu, Nepal
December 2007

3. Acronyms
AAN : ActionAid Nepal
CBO : Community Based organization
CC : Climate Change
CFUG : Community Forest Users Group
COP : Conference of Party
DADO : District Agriculture Development Office
DoHM : Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
DRR : Disaster Risk Reduction
FGD : Focus Group Discussion
GO : Government Organization
GoN : Government of Nepal
ICS : Improved Cooking Stove
IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
KII : Key Informant Interview
KP : Kyoto Protocol
MoEST : Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology
MoPE : Ministry of Population and Environment
NAPA : National Adaptation Programme in Action
NGO : Non-governmental Organizations
NTNC : Nepal Trust for Nature Conservation
PVA : Participatory Vulnerability Analysis
ToR : Terms of Reference
UNDP : United Nations Development Programme
UNEP : United Nations Environmental Programme
UNFCCC : United Nations ….
USCSP : US Country Studies Program
VDC : Village Development committee
WUA : Water Users Association

4. Glossary of Local Nepali Terms
Baadh Flood
Bari Upland mostly used for maize and mustard cultivation
Bikashee Biew Chemical fertiliser
Chulo Cooking stove
Haat Local weekly market
Kathha Unit of land, 20 kathha equals to one bigha (1 bigha=0.67ha)
Khet Paddy land
Mausam Weather
Pala Harmful thick fog
Pesa Traditional occupation to run family livelihood
Prabidhik Technicians
Sanstha Institution /organization
Sukkha Droughts
Ubjani Production
4

5. Executive Summary
1. Background:
• The effect of heat trapping due to the increasing presence of green house
gases causes global warming and subsequent result of warming is known as
climate change. According to third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global average surface temperature has
increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. Temperature rises beyond
2°C are likely to result in reduced crop yields and some ecosystems will be
irreversibly damaged. It will contribute to result in much more flooding in
low-lying areas with decline in food production, an increase in disease, and
the extinction of plants, animals, and entire ecosystems. Particularly, the poor
and most vulnerable people and the ecosystems in which they live and on
which they depend will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change.
• Although Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emission share is negligible compared
to global community, Nepal has already encountered some of the negative
impacts of climate change such as quicker glacial melt and glacier retreat. The
climate changed induced natural hazards such as landslides, floods and
droughts have affected the livelihood of poor and excluded. Despite these
impacts, Government of Nepal is yet to make its way into country’s major
planning on climate change.
• The impacts of climate change and adaptive measures are yet not well
researched and documented. Given this context, Climate Change Impacts and
Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded Communities in Western Nepal:
A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and
Kapilvastu, Nepal was commissioned by ActionAid Nepal (AAN) with the
broader objective of identifying the ways the climate change has impacted the
poor and excluded and strategies communities have adopted to live with the
impacts of climate change.
2. Outline:
• The report is organized into seven sections. The first section provides the
scenario of climate change in global and national context and introduction of
Nepal and study area with the second section. The third section covers
objectives and methods while the climatic change trends in Nepal and study
area is discussed in the fourth section. The impact of climate change in
different sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by local people is
discussed in fifth section. Conclusion and recommendation is given in the
sixth section. The last section of the report presents the annexes.
3. Objectives:
• The overall objectives of the study are to identify how climate changes are
noticed or observed by poor and excluded communities over a period of time
5

6. particularly in the sectors like: agriculture, livestock, health, water, forest and
biodiversity, and look at the impacts and effects made by these changes in the
communities and their community based adaptation strategies.
4. Methodologies:
• A number of methods and techniques were used based on the type of
information required to obtain to achieve the objectives. As the broad
framework for analysis was to assess the status and situation on each of the
key sectors the Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA) was the main
guiding tool to collect field level information. In order to broaden the ideas
and concept about the study, relevant reports and documents related to DRR,
climate change, climate change adaptation, and existing policy and strategy
were reviewed. Climate related data like temperatures and rainfall of the
relevant stations were collected from DoHM of GoN and analyzed. Several
round table interaction meetings were organized with stakeholders and
ActionAid Nepal to finalize the process, select the VDCs for studies.
Checklists and guide questions were used during transect walk, vulnerability
and hazard mappings exercise was conducted, time trend was analyzed for
disaster history review, Venn diagrams were prepared, seasonal calendar
developed and numerous focused group discussions held. Likewise,
information was collected from key informants including the government
stakeholders.
5. Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area:
• Analysis of recorded temperature and precipitation data in Nepal are limited
due to availability of data for only last 30 years. Studies have indicated that
temperature in Nepal is increasing. The warming seems to be consistent and
continuous after the mid-1970s. It is stated that the average warming in
annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was 0.06ºC/yr. The warming is
found to be more pronounced in the high altitude regions of Nepal such as
the middle Mountain and the high Himalaya, while the warming is
significantly lower or even lacking in the Tarai and Siwalik regions. Likewise,
rainfall is also increasing.
• Statistical analysis of the monthly data during 1971-2006 for the stations
Taulihawa in Kapilbastu and Khanchikot in Arghakhanchi and during 1977-
2006 for Pataki in Kapilbastu district reveals that monsoon rain for Patharkot
and Kanchikot is decreasing and extremely decreasing for Taulihawa station.
The data showed that the trend of monsoon rainfall was increasing in the
country but it was decreasing in the basin.
• In the recent years, people also have experienced unusual phenomenon like:
more thunderstorm but less rain, more wind, more mobility of clouds but less
rain. Elderly people during discussion opined the big thunderstorm without
rain is indicator of no potentiality of rainfall. People also have realized that
6

7. the duration of monsoon has also drastically decreased. Now, the rain starts
late and ends early. People used to use local knowledge for prediction of
possible rain and they used to plan for cultivation. But all those predictions
practices have started to fail now.
• In Kapilvastu, people shared that after the construction of Banganga barrage,
the problem of flooding and inundation in the riverside of Motipur and
Banganga/Kopuwa VDCs was increased. In the local people's experiences,
the cases of droughts are also increasing. Most of the droughts cases are
found when there is a need of rainwater. The experience of thick fog during
winter morning is also new phenomenon for local people. The fog now
remains for several weeks to months.
6. Climate Change, Its Impacts and Community Based Adaptation Strategies:
• Though people have poor knowledge on the technical matters of climate
change but they have shown several evidences, which demonstrate that they
have perceived, felt and experienced about its effects. The amount and
patterns of rain-fall, the frequency and extent of droughts, the trends of crop
failure due to emergence of new crop diseases, etc are some of the visible
impacts. Through the exercise of historical timeline, people have informed the
stories transferred from one generation to another about the changes of
climate and its impacts in local context. They sometimes have used the local
knowledge on the basis of position of clouds, wind flows, position of stars,
rainbow and with insects, pest and animal behaviour for the prediction of
weather but such predictions could not be completely relied upon. People
have linked that these are due to climate change.
• There are many evidences that show that how climate change is affecting
peoples' lives and livelihood. The rain pattern over the years is a live
experience. People have been facing longer and frequent droughts, erratic
rainfall, storms, thunderstorm and hailstone. As a result, crop failures are
common; the cases of landslide, flooding/inundation, and riverside erosion
are other phenomenon and further these are in increasing order. The spread
of new water and vector borne diseases are other impacts of climate change.
The most vulnerable ecological and socio-economic systems are those with
the greatest sensitivity to climate change and the least ability to adapt.
• Climate change has impacted agriculture in the study area and the people
have reported decreasing trends of crop production, more flowering and poor
fruiting in the fruits and vegetables, reduced production from on-farm
activities, explosion of pest and insect in crops, erosion of fertile top soil,
reduction in working hours for agriculture, shift to use hybrid seeds,
increasing workload of women and children and increasing trends of
seasonal migration as a result of climate change. Yet the adaptation strategies
of the affected people included their engagement in off-seasonal and
alternative crop varieties, establishment of dairy cooperative, vocational skills
7

8. building, accommodating in the crop growing season, initiation of
community based micro-credit programs and adoption of improved
agriculture practices, etc. Likewise, there has been reduction in grazing land,
high mortality of livestock, closure of shifting livestock grazing in the study
area. To adapt to these changes, people have started raising improved
varieties of livestock and reclaiming the degraded land along the riverbank.
• The respondents shared that these days, with the changing pattern of climatic
features, there have been different health problems. People have experience
clear heat and cold related illness, cardio vascular problems, vector borne
diseases like malaria, filaria, kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue
caused by bacteria, virus, and pathogens like mosquitoes and ticks, as well as
diarrhoea, cholera and intoxication caused by biological and chemical
contaminants in water. Birth of abnormal children is also experienced these
days. People have been using mosquito nets to escape from the mosquito
bites and also have given consideration in drinking water.
• Lowering the level of ground water, defunct farmer managed irrigation
systems, threatening of the wetlands, etc are impacts observed in water
resources. People have started protecting watershed to retain the water
resources, rehabilitating traditional ponds/water bodies, promoting
afforestation and conservation programmes and taking alternative measures
to increase irrigation efficiency to cope with these impacts. Likewise, in the
forestry sector, local people have observed forest resources depletion, forest
resources affected from unidentified diseases, and even extinction of some
species like of NTFPs because of changing climate. In order to reduce the
impact to people, people shared that there have been initiatives for alternative
energy sue, plantation of fast growing trees including bamboo and scaling
community forest programmes. Because of the impact on forest resources,
biodiversity is also being affected. Bees, aquatic animals, and birds are worst
hit by the climate change. Habitat protection measures with awareness
generating activities were taken by the community people to reduce the
impact on biodiversity.
7. Remarks:
• It has been observed from this study that climate change is evident in Nepal
and the impacts can be visualized. Therefore, concrete actions are required on
the part of all stakeholders. Based on the overall findings discussed above, the
study recommends different actions to community, local NGOs, and to AAN
which is carrying our climate change adaptation initiatives.
• The communities should be mobilized for the conservation of watershed to
protect the water resources. There is need to promote afforestation and
conservation. Adoption of renewable energy technologies like bio-gas, solar
energy, etc is needed to reduce the pressure on forest resources. In the
downstream, communities should be encouraged to make safer homes and
8

9. shelter, management of boats, raised roads and tube wells to reduce the
impact of flood. As there are ample opportunities for raising improved
varieties of livestock, the promotion of dairy cooperative could be one of the
income generation activities for the local people. With this, there should be
diverse agriculture that will help communities to adapt to the impacts of
climate change.
• Local NGOs and partner NGOs of AAN should prepare suitable strategies
and approaches for community based adaptation practices to climate change
in order build awareness of people in large scale. Farmers should be
encouraged to adopt alternative varieties like drought and flood resistance
crops to grow more and to secure food and livelihood in difficult time with
insurance at the time of piloting these actions. There is a need to establish
community based early warning system as a part of preparedness through
good communication and forecasting.
• As the climate change adaptation is relatively new area for local partner
NGOs, there is a need of advance capacity building initiatives on science and
art of climate change. These could be training, exposures and cross visits.
Policy advocacy with debates and discourses on existing policies related to
land, water, forest, disaster, energy etc and their implication on climate
change is necessary by organizing different meetings and forums. There is a
need to lead the advocacy for the formulation of policy related to climate
change adaptation.
9

10. Table of Content
Acknowledgements
Acronyms
Glossary of local Nepali Term
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Background 12
1.1 Background 12
1.2 Climate Change in the Nepal's Context 14
1.3 Plans and Policy Initiation for Environment and Climate Change Issues 14
Chapter 2: Nepal and the study area 19
2.1 Nepal 19
2.2 Socio-economic profiles of study area 19
2.2.1 Population 20
2.2.2 Caste composition 20
2.2.3 Language 20
2.2.4 Livelihood pattern 20
2.2.5 Food sufficiency status 21
2.2.6 Seasonal migration pattern 21
2.2.6 Land tenure system 22
2.3 Weather Characteristics of River Basin 23
Chapter 3: Objectives, Methods and Outline of Report 25
3.1 Objectives of the study 25
3.2 Methodology used 25
3.2.1 Review of Relevant literature and Information 25
3.2.2 Round table discussion 26
3.2.3 Building Rapport with local level stakeholders 26
3.2.4 Modality of the selection of VDCs 26
3.2.5 Design Instruments, Checklist and Guide Questions 26
3.2.6 PVA at Community Level 27
3.2 7 Meeting with Government Stakeholders 31
3.2.8 Reporting back to the Communities 31
3.2.9 Analysis the Vulnerabilities 31
3.3 Outline of the report 32
Chapter 4: Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area 33
4.1 Temperature 33
4.2 Precipitation 34
4.3 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation 37
10

11. 4.4 Unpredictable weather events 37
4.4.1 Flood 38
4.4.2 Droughts 40
4.4.3 Thick fog (pala) 41
Chapter 5: Climate Change, Its Impacts and Adaptation Strategies 43
5.1 Agriculture 44
5.1.1 Impacts of climate change on Agriculture 45
5.1.2 Adaptation strategies 50
5.2. Animal Husbandry 52
5.2.1 Impact of Climate Change in Animal Husbandry 52
5.2.2 Adaptation strategies 54
5.3 Human Health 54
5.3.1 Impact of climate change on Human Health 56
5.3.2 Adaptation strategies 59
5.4 Water Resources 59
5.4.1 Impact of climate change in Water Resources 60
5.4.2 Adaptation strategies 61
5.5 Forest Resources 62
5.5.1 Impact of climate change on Forest Resources 63
5.5.2 Adaptation strategies 65
5.6 Biodiversity 66
5.6.1 Impact of Climate Change in Biodiversity 67
5.6.1 Adaptations strategies 68
Chapter 6: Conclusion and Recommendations 69
6.1 Conclusion 69
6.2 Recommendation 70
6.2.1 Community 71
6.2.2 PNGOs 72
6.2.3 AAN 72
References 74
Annex-1: Climatic Assessment of Study Area 78
11

12. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded
Communities in Western Nepal:
A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu,
Nepal
Chapter 1
Background
The first chapter introduces climate change, the underlying causes and subsequent
impacts that local people have experienced over the years followed by the impacts of
climate change in people's lives and livelihood in the global context. In the later section
of this chapter, climate change in the Nepal's context is discussed. In this section, more
emphasis is given to explain how different groups of people of Nepal have experienced
the impacts of climate change with different cases and forms. Towards the end, a policy
review on environment and climate change is presented.
1.1 Background
Climate refers to the average weather and represents the state of the climate system
over a given time period. Due to natural variability or as a result of human
interventions, there is increase in the
Box 1: Vulnerability and its characteristics
emission of the greenhouse gases reflecting Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is
variation of the mean state of weather susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse
variables including temperature, effects of climate change, including climate
variability and extremes. In other words,
precipitation and wind (Orindi and Eriksen, vulnerability is a ‘set of conditions determined by
2005). The effect of heat trapping due to the physical, social, economic and environmental
increasing presence of these gases is factors or processes which increase the
susceptibility of a community to the impact of
understood as greenhouse effect which hazards,’ (The Hyogo Framework 2005-2015,
causes global warming and subsequent result adopted by the UN at the World Conference on
of warming is known as climate change. Disasters in 2005). It is a function of the character,
magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation
to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its
There are many evidences of climate change adaptive capacity. Among many, flood hazards as
that are being experienced by many people an impact of climate change, damages the
infrastructures, erodes the valuable agriculture land
especially the poor and excluded around the and losses of thousands of lives and livestock.
world in different forms. According to third
Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global
average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. There
is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years
is attributable to human activities. The global average surface temperature is expected
to increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, depending largely on the scale of fossil-fuel
burning. IPCC has determined that even if we take steps to reduce our greenhouse gas
12

13. emissions now, the globe could warm up at a rate faster than it has in the past 10,000
years (CEN).
The effects of climate changes are multifaceted. Past and current emissions mean that an
increase in temperature of 1°C to 1.5°C is inevitable. Yet the increase of 0.6°C that has
already occurred is having a severe impact on global ecosystems and especially on poor
people. To avoid the most serious impact of global warming and climate change, the
global mean temperature should be limited to a 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels
(UK Government, 2003). Temperature rises beyond 2°C are likely to result in reduced
crop yields in most tropical, sub-tropical, and mid-latitude regions and some
ecosystems will be irreversibly damaged or lost. It will contribute to result in much
more flooding in low-lying areas with decline in food production, an increase in
disease, and the extinction of plants, animals, and entire ecosystems (IPCC, 2007).
Further, as a result of human activities, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
are rising and with them, global temperatures. In addition to increases in temperature,
global warming results in more extreme weather patterns: more rain, longer dry spells,
stronger and more violent storms, more fires, and the spread of tropical diseases. As
climate change pushes the world towards more extreme weather, more and more
people will be exposed to recurrent disasters during their lives. IPCC (2007) predicted
that there will be a widespread increase in the risk of flooding for many human
settlements. Flooding and landslides, the unavoidable results of climate change, pose
the most widespread direct risk to human settlements. It’s estimated that by 2025 over
half of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods and
storms. Food, health, water and energy, the building blocks of livelihoods may face
many of the threats from, and responses to, global warming in the days to come.
Without stopping the effects of global warming, it is clear that the viability of millions
of people’s lives and livelihoods will be undermined; without significant new resources,
millions of others won’t be able to adapt to changes that are already happening.
Particularly, the poor and most vulnerable people and the ecosystems in which they
live and on which they depend will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change. In
both developing and developed countries, the impact of climate change can be much
greater for indigenous communities who rely most directly on their immediate
environments for subsistence and livelihood often living in the more remote and
ecologically fragile zone (UNFCCC, 2004). World Bank (2003) also mentioned that all
countries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest countries and the poorest
people within them are most vulnerable. Similarly, a study carried out by Regmi and
Adhikari (2007) found that the impact of global warming is already being felt by the
most vulnerable-the world’s poorest people and countries and its impact is severe on
Nepal because of the geographical and climatic conditions, high dependence on natural
resources and lack of resources to cope with the changing climate. Climate change is
increasingly recognized as among the greatest challenges human society will face over
13

14. the coming century. While it will affect everything from basic ecosystem processes to
the spread of disease, some of the greatest impacts are anticipated to occur due to
increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, i.e. storms, floods,
droughts, etc.
Furthermore, the incidence and economic impact of climate related disasters has been
increasing over recent decades (World Meteorological Organisation, Co-operative
Programme on Water and Climate et al., 2006). As the Hyogo framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction (DRR) highlights, DRR is essential if the world is to succeed in reaching
the Millennium Development Goals (ISDR, 2005). Conceptually, reducing the risk of
disasters is closely associated to adaptation processes. What makes people vulnerable?
To most people today, this is an everyday question that is as simple as it is complex.
1.2 Climate Change in the Nepal's Context
Although Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emission share is negligible compared to global
community, Nepal has already encountered some of the negative impacts of climate
change. Studies made by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology show that
average temperature in Nepal is increasing approximately 0.06 degrees Celsius per
year. The temperature in the Himalayas, however, is increasing at a faster rate, which is
resulting serious impacts on the glacial lakes-the sources of water for Nepal. Many
glaciers are retreating at a faster rate and rapidly melting glaciers means more seasonal
variation in river flow resulting more floods and droughts in the country. Because
Nepal has a complex, mountainous landscape, floods and landslides have also become
more frequent and severe. The high dependence on natural resources for livelihood and
inadequate resources to cope with are other reasons. These factors collectively
contribute to result the vulnerable situation of the rural poor and excluded.
About 85.8 percent of the total population reside in rural areas of Nepal and meet their
energy demand from biomass combustion, particularly firewood, while about 15
percent of the total population living in urban areas is exposed to different levels of
concentration of gases, including greenhouse gases. The Himalayas constitute a
threatened ecosystem in the world. Himalayas in Nepal are geologically young and
fragile and are vulnerable to even insignificant changes in the climatic system. This
system is threatened through anthropogenic activities such as farming practices and
natural resource consumption patterns (Regmi and Adhikari, 2007).
The climate induced natural hazards such as landslides, floods and droughts affect the
livelihood of poor and excluded (Gautam et al, 2007). Analysis of existing temperature
records already shows an increasing trend in Nepal. This warming has been more
pronounced in the middle mountain and the high Himalayas than in the lower Tarai1
1 It is marshy ground or meadow. It is the flat area lying to the south of the Churia range and extending to the Indian boarder.
Geology and soil composition consists of recent alluvial plain, boulders, gravel sands, clay and fine loamy deep soils.
14

15. and Siwalik2. But its effects are seen in the low lying area, i.e. the Tarai also. The analysis
of climate data from four recording stations representing inner Tarai, mid mountains for
the periods of early 1970s to 2000 and one for High Mountain for the period 1988 to
2000 has shown that there has been a clear warming trend in Nepal (Chaulagain, 2006).
A number of possible climate change-related impacts on agriculture, horticulture,
livestock, human health, water resources, forest resources and bio-diversity affecting
the poor's livelihoods and the environment (Gautam et al, 2007).
Nepal signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June 12, 1992 and ratified it on May 2, 1994. It has been
regularly participating in conference of parties (COPs) and other subsidiary meetings
and it also became party of Kyoto Protocol by submitting its instrument of Accession.
So far, Nepal does not have any specific policies on climate change (more of which is
discussed later); but it has some policies and programs to promote clean energy and
energy efficiency. It is therefore, there is a need of comprehensive, multilateral response
to climate change.
In Nepal, the impact of climate change is not experienced in the same manner by the
different groups of people. The poor communities are at the hardest hit by the climate
change. In the rural area of Nepal, the livelihood of the poor and excluded is entirely
dependent upon agriculture, livestock, water, forest resources and biodiversity
resources. The changes in these sectors as a result of climate change have affected
directly lives and livelihood of these rural poor. Particularly, women are more
vulnerable due to climate change. Similar findings are recorded from studies carried out
by Mitchell et al (2007) and Gautam et al (2007). According to these studies, climate
change is affecting everybody, regardless of caste, ethnicity, sex, race or level of income
but women and poor are at the worst hit. Women make up for 70% of the world’s poor.
They have less access to financial resources, land, education, health and other basic
rights than men, and are seldom involved in decision making processes. They are,
therefore, less able to cope with the impact of climate change and are less able to adapt.
The same studies also found that women in poor areas have started to adapt to a
changing climate and can clearly articulate what they need to secure and sustain their
livelihoods more effectively. Their priorities include a safe place to live and store their
harvest and livestock during the monsoon season, better access to services such as
agricultural extension, training and information about adaptation strategies and
livelihood alternatives, and access to resources to implement effective strategies and
overcome constraints. Among the many areas, the impacts of climate change are clearly
observed by poor and excluded on agriculture, livestock, human health, water, forest
resources and biodiversity.
2 The first range arising north of the Indo-gangetic plain, up to 1000 m, geology and soil composition consists of clay stone,
sandstone, conglomerate and loamy skeletal. The term Siwaliks is used throughout the Himalayan region. Churia (or chure) is a
Nepali word for Siwalik range. Locally, the word chure is used to describe a single hill crest, and Churia to describe a group or a
range of hill crests
15

16. 1.3 Plans and Policy Initiation by Nepal for Environment and Climate Change Issues
Various proven studies including Regmi and Adhikari (2007) suggest that Nepal has
started some initiative for environmental protection and management since 1990s. The
debates on the issues of climate change have even been started. The following sections
highlighted some of the initiatives that Nepal has taken for environmental and climate
change sectors.
• The Eighth Plan ((1992-1997): During this period, two major works were carried
out by the then HMG/Nepal. These included the formulation of enactment of
Environment Protection Act (1996) and Promulgation of Environment and
Protection Regulations (1997) which helped to start the debate and discourse in
environmental issues.
• The Ninth-Plan (1997-2002): The plan had prioritized agriculture,
industrialization and tourism development through environment management
intending to contribute to poverty reduction.
• The Tenth-Plan (2002-2007): The plan acknowledged the importance of weather
for economic performance but was almost silence in climate risks issues.
• Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF): This framework included
some ideas on impacts of weather and climate. (Shardul et al, 2003) finds that it
discusses vector-borne disease control and emergency preparedness and disaster
management, mitigation of floods and erosion in cultivated areas, and water
harvesting to provide year-round water supply for irrigation. In addition to
these, MTEF paid some attention on climate-related risks. But the framework is
almost unspoken about relation of hydropower plants due to the variability in
runoff, floods (including GLOFS), and sedimentation. The same situation was
also observed in road sector. It did not discuss flood and landslide risks, water
supply and sanitation, irrigation sectors due to climate risks.
• The National Conservation Strategy (NCS): NCS was a major step to
systematically develop an appropriate strategy for environment and resources
conservation in Nepal.
• Nepal Environmental Policy and Action Plan (NEPAP): After the UN
Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio, HMG/N
established the Environmental Protection Council (EPC) under the chairmanship
of the Prime Minister in 1992. Thereafter, NEPAP 1993 was introduced to carry
out sustainable management of natural resources; to address the issues of
population, health and sanitation, and poverty alleviation; to safeguard national
heritage; to mitigate adverse environmental impact and to support in legislation,
institutions, education and public awareness.
• United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD): Nepal
signed the International Convention to Combat Desertification and ratified it in
1996. Nepal took active part in the UN Conference on Desertification (1977), and
in the formulation of the UN Plan of Action to combat desertification for
addressing impacts of desertification, land degradation, and climate change in an
16

17. integrated way. Many of the responses to desertification, such as integrated
watershed management and community-based soil and water management,
would also enhance Nepal’s resilience to disasters and adaptive capacity to
climate change.
• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD): Nepal signed the CBD in 1992, and
ratified it in 1993. The Country’s Biodiversity Strategy (2002) was prepared
under the UNDP/GEF Biodiversity Conservation Project. It listed several
climate-related risks, such as flooding and sedimentation, as threats to
biodiversity.
• World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD): Nepal’s National
Assessment Report for the WSSD (2002) recognized the links between climatic
circumstances and land degradation, erosion and landslides. It also recognized
the increase in landslide risks due to the effects of paddy cultivation and
livestock grazing in the hills and mountains. However, adaptation to climate
change was not specifically addressed.
• Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal (SDAN): The SDAN listed Nepal’s
vulnerability to climate change, natural disasters and environmental degradation
among the constraints facing Nepal’s sustainable development. Though it did
not mention climate change explicitly, there was a specific section on protection
of the atmosphere.
• National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA): Nepal has prepared the
project document to initiate the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA)
with participation from a multi-disciplinary team, coordinated by Ministry of
Environment, science and Technology (MoEST).
• Major Policies of Nepal in Environmental Sectors: National Wetlands Policy
(2003), National Biodiversity Strategy (2002), Master Plan for the forestry sector
(1988), National Parks & Wildlife Conservation Act (1973), Forest Act (2049),
Forest Regulation (2051), Lake Protection Act (2053), Environmental Protection
Regulation (2054), Buffer Zone Regulation (2052), Convention on Biological
Diversity (1992), Aquatic Animals Protection Act (1961), Soil and Watershed
Conservation Act (1982), Water Resources Act (1992), Environment Protection
Act (1996), Environment Protection Rules (1997), and Ozone Depleting Substance
Consumption (Control) Rules, 2001 are the major policies in Nepal with the
objective of maintaining a clean and healthy environment by minimizing adverse
impacts in the pursuit of economic development.
• Local Self-Governance Act, 1998: It empowered the local bodies such as DDC,
VDC and the municipalities by outlining their environmental functions
comprising of local-level planning of the environment, forest and bio-diversity
conservation and use, and pollution control etc.
• National Agricultural Policy 2004: It emphasized to increase productivity rate
and to protect and promote natural resources to utilize them in the interest of
farmers.
17

18. Among the country’s global environmental commitments, climate change is yet to be
internalized by Government of Nepal (GoN). The climate change has yet to make its
way into country’s major planning documents. It has also been left out of the Nepal
Environment Policy and Action Plan. At the national level, meanwhile, Nepal has no
specific policy documents dealing with climate change. The preparation of the NAPA is
the first official initiative for mainstreaming adaptation into national policies and
actions for addressing adverse impacts of climate change and reducing vulnerability to
climate stimuli including extreme events. Nepal has prepared the project document to
initiate the NAPA with participation from a multi-disciplinary team, coordinated by
Ministry of Environment, Science, and Technology-MoEST (Alam, 2004).
18

19. Chapter 2
Nepal and the study area
This chapter is broadly categorized into three parts. Nepal’s introduction with its
different ecological regions is discussed in the first section followed by the socio
economic profiles of the study area. In the third section, a brief introduction on weather
characteristics of Banganga river basin has been discussed.
2.1 Nepal
Nepal is a land-locked country located in South Asia between India and China. It is
situated between latitudes of 26022' to 30027' north and between longitudes of 8004' to
88012' east. The east-west length of the country is about 800 km, and the average north-
south width is 140 km. Within the Box 1: Description of Ecological Regions of Nepal
147,181 km2 area of the country, A. Tarai: This is the southern part of Indo-Gangetic plain. It
physiographic regions range from extends nearly 800 km from east to west and about 30-40 km
from north to south. The average elevation is below 750 m. It
tropical forests in the south to the also covers Bhavar and Inner Tarai. The temperate is usually
snowy Himalayas in the north. high.
Nepal has a very diverse B. Siwalik: It is commonly called as Churia. Its elevation
ranges from 700 to 1,500 m. Due to its poor geology as a result
environment resulting from its of loose friable nature and extensive deforestation in past
impressive topography (please refer decades, landslides are the common phenomenon which
box 1). A cross-section of the country caused large sedimentation in the rivers that passes from
Churia. The temperate is moderate.
reveals that the topography C. Middle Mountain: It is also popularly termed as
generally progresses from altitudes Mahabharat. Its elevation is ranges from 1,500 to 2,700 m.
of less than 100 m in the southern These mountains are the first great barrier to monsoon clouds
and the highest precipitation occurs on the southern slope of
Tarai plain, up to more than 8,848m this range. The climate is moderate in this region.
peaks in the north. It has extreme D. High Mountains: High Mountains range from 2,200 to
spatial climatic variation – from a 4,000 m. This region consists of phyllite, schists and quartzite
rocks, and the soil is generally shallow and resistant to
tropical to arctic climate with a span weathering. The climate is cool.
of about 200 km. E. High Himalaya: Ranges from 4,000 to above 8,000 m
dominate the High Himalaya. The climate is of alpine type and
the snowline lies at 5,000 m in the east and at 4,000 m in the
Nepal has five ecological regions viz west. The area lying to the north of the main Himalayan range
Tarai, Siwalik, Middle Mountain, is the Trans-Himalayan region, which restricts the entry of
High Mountains and High Himalaya monsoon moisture and therefore the region has a dry desert-
like climate.
(please refer to box 1). This study only
covers two ecological regions i.e. Tarai and Siwalik.
2.2 Socio-economic profiles of study area
This study was commissioned in Banganga River basin of Arghakhanchi and
Kapilvastu districts of Western Development Region of Nepal. This study includes a
total of 6 Village Development Committee (VDCs). Subarnakhal and Simalpani VDCs
were selected from Arghakhanchi while Motipur, Banganga, Kopuwa and Niglihawa
VDCs were chosen from Kapilvastu. Out of the six VDCs under study, two are in the
upper catchments whereas four are in the lower catchments of the Banganga River
19

20. Basin. The VDCs selected from Arghakhanchi fall in Siwalik region while the VDCs
from Kapilvastu fall in Tarai region. The climatic conditions are hot tropical (sometimes
temperature reaching 420C to temperate.
Table 1: Population by VDCs
VDCs Total Population
2.2.1 Population HHs Male Female Total
The total number of HHs in the study VDCs Subarnkhal 585 1539 1710 3249
is 8,930 and average HHs size is 5.6. The Simalpani 1080 3023 3120 6143
population of study VDCs is 50,811 in which Motipur 2048 5312 5561 10875
Banganga 1942 5252 5438 10690
male and female population is 24,893 and Kopuwa 1661 4773 5005 9778
25,916 respectively. The VDC wise total HHs Niglihawa 1614 4994 5082 10076
with gender disaggregated population is Total 8930 24893 25916 50811
Source: CBS, 2001
given in table 1.
2.2.2 Caste composition
The caste composition in the Table 2: Major Cluster and Caste by VDCs
study area includes Brahmin, District VDCs Clusters Dominant
caste groups
Chhetri, Dalit, Tharu, Rana, Subarnkhal Chhetri Tole Brahmin, Chhetri
khanchi
Magar, Tarai non-dalit3, Mager tole Magers
Argha
Tarai-dalit4 and Mushlim. In Simalpani Simalpani Brahmin, Chhetri
Arghakhanchi, Brahmin, Pawora Magers
Motipur Balapur Hill migrants
Chhetri, Dalit, Rana, Magar Gheruwa Tharu
are in majority whereas Tharu Banganga Uptaha Hill migrants
and hill migrants Brahmin Sukumbasi Tole Tharu
Kapilvastu
Kopuwa Loharibagiya Hill migrants
and Chhetri in are in majority
Bankasiya Tharu
in Kapilvastu (Please refer table Niglihawa Jarlaiya Tarai caste people
2). Harnampur Tharu
Source: Field Study, 2007
2.2.3 Language
Nepali language is mostly
Table 3: Means of Livelihood in Studied VDCs
spoken in Arghakhanchi while VDCs Sources of livelihood (in percentage)
Tharu is the major language Agriculture Seasonal Service Business
spoken in Kapilvastu. Apart /livestock labour
from Nepali language, some Subarnkhal 86 6 5 3
Simalpani 91 6 2 1
people use their mother tongue
Motipur 78 4 9 9
within their families and
Banganga 72 5 12 11
societies. Kopuwa 76 6 10 8
Niglihawa 81 5 6 8
2.2.4 Livelihood pattern AVR % 80.6 5.3 7.3 6.6
The livelihood of majority of Source: FGDs, 2007
the population depends upon
3 Tarai Non Dalit includes Maurya, Yadav, Thakur, Mishra, Rad/ Kurmi, Gupta, Gosain, Kumhal, Kandu, Gadariya, Sahani/
Mahi/ Godiya, Sonar, Mali, Bhujwa.
4
Tarai Dalit includes Bhangi, Pasi, Luniya, Dhobi, Lohar, Bishwakarma, Baskhor, Chamar, Badhahi, Bahi, Bari, Khatik,
Kalwar and Gaddi.
20

21. agriculture/livestock (80.6%) followed by seasonal labour (5.3%) and GOs and NGOs
services (7.3%) and business (6.6%). The VDC wise means of livelihood is given in Table
3.
Majority of the people depend upon agriculture and livestock to run their livelihood.
Seasonal labour, services and business are other sources of livelihood.
2.2.5 Food sufficiency status
The level of food sufficiency is very miserable. In an average, only 23% HHs have food
sufficiency for the year round and 18% HHs
have no food sufficiency even for 2 months Table 4: Well-being ranking
VDCs Food sufficiency months (in %)
(Please refer table 4). The food sufficiency
12 and 6-11 2-5 > 2
months are decreasing with the increasing more
flooding and inundation problem. The level of Subarnkhal 15 16 43 26
food sufficiency is worst among the farmers Simalpani 17 21 44 18
Motipur 28 34 24 16
who reside along the Banganga riverbank Banganga 30 36 28 6
because of increasing events of flood every Kopuwa 26 30 27 17
year. Niglihawa 22 28 23 27
23 27.5 31.5 18.3
Source: Field Study, 2007
2.2.6 Seasonal migration pattern
In search of alternative employment opportunities many people mostly youth are
forced to go outside the village, mostly nearby cities within Nepal and India, leaving
women, children and elderly people at home alone. In such a situation, left over people
are becoming further vulnerable from disaster because of their poor coping capacities.
Seasonal migration normally peaks during November to January, after harvesting of the
paddy fields and broadcasting of the winter crop mostly wheat, mustard and maize.
Some go even early before the paddy plantation. As far as possible, male family
members opt to stay at home to attend to rebuilding and securing their housing before
the seasonal migration (Marcus Moench and Ajaya Dixit, 2007).
People started to migrate seasonally in Table 5: Trends of seasonal migration by VDCs
seeking alternative income source VDCs Seasonal migration (in percentage)
> 2 1-2 Only one Occasionally
since the cases of hazards are in Yrs Yrs season
increasing trends. It was also observed Subarnkhal 12 35 45 8
that seasonal migration is far and Simalpani 8 37 49 6
Motipur 3 56 32 7
wide. In every HH, one or more family Banganga 7 49 28 16
members are away for earning some Kopuwa 14 43 34 7
income during some period of the year Niglihawa 4 16 62 18
(please refer table 5). The income secures AVR % 8 40 42 10
Source: Field Study, 2007
a certain level and therewith food
security but the earning even does not become sufficient to pay back loan and to run the
family and house reconstruction (ibid). The main reasons for the seasonal migration as
shared by the community are as follows:
21

22. • Flooding, inundation and sedimentation cause the failure of crop production.
• With the population pressure, land is fragmented. The small plot of land is not
sufficient to produce adequate grains for the family.
• Inadequate opportunities of on-farm and off farm labour within the village.
• Loss of livestock due to out break of diseases.
• Low interest in agriculture due to continuous distress and trauma from
landslide, flood, and sedimentation.
Though people use indigenous knowledge about the flood forecasting, but they are not
able to escape the impacts of flood always. With several cloudbursts in the upper
catchments, people assumed there is a possibility of heavy rain. With this other
precautionary measures are taken.
2.2.6 Land tenure system
The land tenure system includes the categories of farmers in terms of having their own
land; own land plus sharecropping, landless plus sharecropping, and landless plus
rented others land, etc. The overall scenario of the land tenure system by VDCs is given
in table 6.
Table 6: Land tenure system by VDCs
VDCs Land tenure system (in percentage)
Own land Own land plus Landless plus Landless plus rented others
sharecropping sharecropping land
Subarnkhal 88 12 0 0
Simalpani 81 11 6 2
Motipur 72 16 7 5
Banganga 74 16 6 4
Kopuwa 63 15 15 7
Niglihawa 62 19 16 3
AVG % 73 15 8.5 3.5
Source: Field Study, 2007
From the table, it is clear that about 73% families cultivate their own land by
themselves. Likewise, 15% families run their livelihood by cultivating their own land
along with cultivate others land by sharecropping, and so forth.
2.3 Weather Characteristics of River Basin
Banganga river basin is an umbrella in shape and is extended from the north of the
East-west Highway to trans-boundary region of Indo-Nepal in the south. It extends in
between 270 41’ 30” to 270 54’ 07” North latitude and 800 04’ 22” to 800 18’ 56” East
longitudes.
Most of its part extends over the east-south part of Arghakhanchi district. The southern
depositional zone is called fan (Bhavar/inner Tarai) and it lies in northern side of
22

23. Kapilbastu. The total area of the basin is about 210 Km2, out of which around 85% lies in
the hill slope and the valley and the rest in fan and Tarai region (Please refer the map 1).
The altitude of basin varies from 125m in the south to 2256 m in the north. The average
slope of the basin is 28o. The basin has high potential to erosion and mass wasting varies
from place to place (Ghimire, 2001). The Banganga River and Dhunger Khola and their
tributaries are the major river draining in the Banganga basin. The Banganga River
originates from the southern slope of the Mahabharat Range in the northwest and flows
towards the south and then towards the east and join with Dhungre khola flowing from
southern slope of the Mahabharat Range in north east side. The average drainage
density of the basin is 3.8 km/km2.
A study carried out in 2001 shows that the agricultural land is increased by 85% from
1954 to 1990 whereas the forest land is decreased by 13.25% in the basin (Ghimire, 2001).
This massive
Map 1: Location Map of the Banganga River Basin
alteration in
cultivated land and
forest coverage Location
Banganga watershed
N
reflects into adverse S
#
Badachour
Jaluke
S
#
Ghartisara
impacts on the
S
# S
#
Pakri Khola
S
#
Amja
S
#
Thada S
# Rajausa
S
#
hydrological and
Mandre S
#
S
#
S
#
Kudapani
Subarnakhal Halde
S
#
Bahune Khola S
# S
#
S
# Ghorli_Khola Simle
Malarani
environmental
S
#
S
# Bharatpur Patuwachour
Bhedamare S
#
Dangre S
#
S
#
processes in the
Bahunkharka S
#
Neta_kharka S
#
Tallo Gangakhola S
#
Bhakari Dhunga
S
#
Panidanda
basin.
S
#
S
#
Khursane Sattyawati
S
# S
#
Simalpani Gandi
S
#
Karechuli S
#
Dhungri Kholagau
The distribution of Nepal
soil and rock types S
#
Boundary
that determines the
Pawara
Rivers or streams
Trails
potential of the S
# Village
hazards
geologically is S
#
Udayapur 2 0
Scale
2 4 Kilometers
shown in the table
S
#
Nanda_Nagar
S
#
S
# S
#
Logai Bairiya
7. Map 1 Source: Topsheets, scale 1:25,000; Topographical Survey Department, 1993
The VDCs of the lower catchments are suffering from several water induced disasters
like flood, inundation, and epidemic whereas landslides and bush fires are other
hazards in the upper catchments. Monsoon rainfall is the primary cause of flooding.
23

24. Table 7: Rock and soil types in the watershed
Rock or soil types Area (ha) Percentage
Alluvial fans, talus, colluviums 1133.2 5.5
Alluvium deposited or reworked by rivers 1774.85 8.4
Upper Siwaliks 1091.66 5.3
Middle Siwaliks 5707.35 27.5
Lower Siwaliks 4882.67 23.6
Bhaiskotta khola Sand stone and Shale 2424.29 11.7
Black and Carboneous shale 214.68 1.0
Ridhhkhola-Dhatibang Dolomities 932.45 9.3
Supa Khola Purpule shale 1602.03 7.7
Total 20733.18 100
Source: Aryal (1978)
24

25. Chapter 3
Objectives, Methods and Outline of Report
This chapter briefly discusses the overall objective of the study and the methodology
used during its different phases. The chapter later gives the general outline of the
report.
3.1 Objectives of the study
The overall objectives of the study are to:
• Identify how climate changes are noticed or observed by poor and excluded
communities over a period of time particularly in the sectors like: agriculture,
livestock, health, water, forest and biodiversity, and
• Look at the impacts and effects made by these changes in the communities and
their community based adaptation strategies.
3.2 Methodology used
The broad framework for analysis was to assess the status and situation on each of the
key areas outlined in the terms of reference. The Participatory Vulnerability Analysis
(PVA) was the main guiding tool to collect field level information.
3.2.1 Review of Relevant literature and Information
In order to broaden the ideas and concept about the study, relevant reports and
documents were reviewed. In addition to these, study reports, reports of other
organizations related to DRR, climate change, climate change adaptation, and existing
policy and strategy related to DRR were also reviewed to understand the issues and
concerns of risks and vulnerabilities.
Consultation meeting with Women in
As part of the review of secondary Upstream VDCs
information collection, climatic related data
like temperatures and rainfall of the relevant
stations within the basin were collected from
DoHM of GoN. A very less number of
stations lie in the basins. Stations of Index are
0715 at 1760 amsl in Arghakhanchi district,
0721 at 200m amsl and 0716 at 90m amsl were
chosen for Kapilvastu for this study.
The length of records of rainfall data from
these stations is good in climatic analysis because it insufficient to make such climatic
analysis if the data availability is for less than 30 years, But a length of record of
temperature in climatic station (Index 0721) is not significant for the climatic analysis;
since it is only available for 20 years. The records of temperature data especially daily
minimum temperature for most of the years are not available at the climatic stations in
25

26. the basin. However, the trend of temperature around the region of the basin was
attempted from different literatures. Risk-Vulnerability Mapping of Upstream VDCs
And the maximum temperature trend
based on 20 years data of Index 0721 has
also been analyzed. The temporal
variations of annual rainfall at each
selected stations were plotted and
studied separately. The mean monthly
rainfall has been performed for all those
selected stations. To do this, statistical
analysis of rainfall, ‘EXCEL’ from the
Microsoft Office Software has been
used.
3.2.2 Round table discussion
Several round table interaction meetings were organized between NDRC team and Sr.
Theme Leader, EDM/ActionAid Nepal (AAN) to understand key issues related to
study and its outputs. These interactions meetings were helpful in finalizing the study
design and field work for team.
3.2.3 Building Rapport with local level stakeholders
Preliminary meetings were
Risk-Vulnerability Mapping of Downstream VDCs
organized with local level
stakeholders to share the purpose of
the study. It was useful to select the
study VDCs and clusters within the
VDCs. The meeting decided to
choose two VDCs from
Arghakhanchi and four VDCs from
Kapilvastu district as sampled
VDCs. Then, request letters were
received from these VDCs to carry
out this comprehensive study.
3.2.4 Modality of the selection of VDCs
River basin concept was used while selecting the study VDCs. The diversity in terms of
caste, ethnicity, hill migrants and indigenous Tharu and Madhesi communities was
taken while selecting the clusters within VDCs. It has helped to explore the perspectives
and issues of different people on climate change, its impacts in peoples' lives and
livelihood and associated adaptation strategies.
3.2.5 Design Instruments, Checklist and Guide Questions
The NDRC team then prepared the checklists and guide questions to collect primary
26

27. information from the field. Through the induction meeting, those checklists were
shared with AAN partners in Kapilvastu like Sahaj Nepal and Siddartha Community
Development Centre along with the overall concept of the study. Amendments on the
checklists and guide questions were made on the basis of their feedback and
suggestions.
The checklists and guide questions
were then tested in the field in Time line and trend analysis of downstream VDCs
order to make them more realistic, Date Disaster Effects Trends
simple and to overcome (BS)
2019 Flood 26 houses were collapsed, 68 I
duplication before commissioning bigha of land was eroded by river
in the real fieldwork. 2028 Flood 10 bigha of land I
2031 Flood 15 bigha of land I
2030 Fire 2 houses (Bhusal and Pokhrel) I
3.2.6 PVA at Community Level 2032 Flood 1 house was collapsed, 30 bigha I
In order to examine and map out of land was eroded by river
the climate change adaptation by 2033 Flood 35 houses were collapsed, 25 I
poor, women, and excluded bigha of land was eroded by river
2034 Hailstone Damage of crops D
communities focusing DRR, 2041 Cold Damage of winter crops, losses D
various tools and techniques of wave of livestock, 2 children were died,
PVA were used. The team of elderly people were in difficult
situation
NDRC stayed 7-8 days in each 2055 Flood 5 kathha of land was eroded by I
VDC and the community to collect river
primary information using PVA 2057 Flood 8 kathha of land was eroded by I
river
tools, which are discussed here
2058 Drought Outburst of epidemic, I
under. production reduced by 70%
2059 Flood 10 kathha of land was eroded by I
a. Transects walks river
2061 Drought crop reduced by 45% I
These walks were also organized to 2060 Flood 5 kathha of land was eroded by I
familiarize with the area and the river
people that were mostly affected 2062 Flood 15 kathha of land was eroded by I
river, erosion of nursery
from the flood, landslides, fire,
Source: Field study, 2007
droughts, epidemics, etc. This
exercise was also useful to assess
the changes in land use pattern of the study clusters.
27

28. b. Vulnerability and hazard mapping
Vulnerability and hazard mappings exercise was found useful to know the context of
people's vulnerabilities from climate change perspective and their adaptation strategies.
In the exercise, people were requested to show the social infrastructures along with
major vulnerabilities to disasters, the most affected areas from climate change, etc by
sketching the village map in the ground. The discussion was then focused on the impact
of climate change on agriculture land, grazing fields, community ponds, forest, water
resources etc in the map. Before that, role was divided among the NDRC study team to
act as facilitators, recorders and observers. The symbols were made on the basis of
agreed consensus of the people.
Once the mapping was made on Time line and trend analysis of
the ground, it was copied in the Upstream VDCs
Date Disaster Effects Trends
large sheet of paper. The map was (BS)
again presented in the mass and 2029, Landslide 14 ropani of land damaged I
necessary corrections were made. 30
2032 Landslide 34 ropani of land damaged I
2032 Landslide 4 houses were collapsed, 12 I
c. Timeline and Trend Analysis ropani of land damaged
Communities in each VDC were 2033 Landslide 12 houses were collapsed,
I
asked about the major 23 ropani of land damaged
2035 Hailstone Damage of wheat crops
D
phenomenon including history of 2044 Cold Damage of winter crops and
D
area in terms of the disasters wave losses of livestock
occurrence, the experiences of the 2055 Landslide 34 ropani of land damaged
I
climate change, etc. The purpose 2057 Landslide 5 ropani of land damaged
I
2058 Drought Outburst of epidemic,
I
was to see and to explain the production reduced by 70%
causes and consequences of climate 2059 Landslide 42 ropani of land damaged
I
change and adaptation strategies of 2061 Drought Crop reduced by 60 %
I
2060 Landslide 58 ropani of land damaged
I
local people. Local people shared 2062 Landslide 9 ropani of land damaged
I
the dates and the type of disasters
that have occurred and the corresponding results/impacts. Elderly people contributed
the information from decades back. The following process was used to explore the
timeline and time trends.
• Initially, the purpose of the exercise Venn diagram of Downstream VDCs
was shared. Once the people knew
about the purpose of information
collection, they selected the elderly
and knowledgeable people both men
and women to list out the major
events, their effects and trends.
• In case of confusion of years, agreed
communities benchmarks were
established that were later verified
from other knowledgeable people. Source: Field study 2007
• The role played by the communities
28

29. during each disaster event was also recorded. The climate change phenomenon
and its impacts were discussed. Their increasing and decreasing trends were also
discussed.
• At the end of the exercise, the lead person
shared the timeline and trends to the Venn diagram of Upstream VDCs
community for the purpose of
verification.
The major disaster events and their correlation
with climate change were located with the time
line of the disasters and from some informal
meetings and interviews; a trend analysis of
these disasters and their impacts on climate
change was also carried out. This information
provided an opportunity to make further Source: Field study, 2007
analysis and to recommend the measures at the
end.
d. Venn Relationship
Venn diagrams were prepared sitting with the community members based on different
information on the existing support of various institutions. The following process was
used to assess the Venn relationships:
• The participants listed down the major organisations working in the VDCs with
their detail information.
• Discussion was made on how the Seasonal calendar of downstream VDCs
absence of effective Major Months
organisation/institution further Incident 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
promoted people's vulnerability to Flood
River Cutting
impacts of climate change. Fire
• The participants were requested to Starvation
identify the most important, least Loan
Diseases
important, the more accessible and Fetching
least accessible institutions at the time firewood
of people's need to reduce the effects Thunderbolt
Inundation
of climate change.
Freed animal
• Further, they were asked to place Snake bite
institutions based on their Cold wave
interrelationship (one way and two- Encephalitis,
Malaria
way relationship, near and far, more Eye disease,
access and less access etc). dysentery
• The institutional mapping (Venn Source: field work, 2007
diagram) was then later presented in the mass for its verification.
29

30. e. Seasonal Calendar
Seasons are the integral parts of people's lives and they exert an important impact upon
the livelihood of the local people. In these sites, the calendar reflected the perceptions of
the local people regarding seasonal variations in the various aspects and their
relationship in climate change. It helped to identify heavy workload periods, periods of
relative ease, credit, diseases, food security, wage availability and possibility of
occurrence of some disaster like fire, thunderstorm, flood, landslides, experience of
climate change impacts, etc. It also
established the pattern of crop Seasonal calendar of upstream VDCs
cultivation and vulnerability, crop Major Incident Months
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
diversification and changes in Landslide
climate. It helped the community River cutting
to identify the most vulnerable Fire
Starvation
group according to seasonality. For Loan
this, the following process was Diseases
adopted. Fetching firewood
• People were asked to list Thunderbolt
Snake bite
down the major events of Cold wave
the year and then fit it in to Encephalitis, Malaria
calendar. Eye disease, cholera,
dysentery
• It was discussed that how Source: field work, 2007
seasonality propagated
vulnerabilities and how people coped with such vulnerabilities.
• At the end of the discussion, the calendar was shared in the mass for the purpose
of triangulation.
f. Problem Tree for Casual Analysis
Casual analysis was very important to know the types of problems and their underlying
causes and effects of climate change. The participants were mobilised to identify major
problems and their cause and effects. For this, pair wise ranking was made to identify
the most crucial problems for climate change. For clarity, the facilitators drew the sketch
of tree by showing its three parts: the root, stem and branches. The stem was
symbolised as problem, roots as causes and branches as effects.
This exercise was able to analyse the level of awareness of the people at one hand and
on the other hand to identify the areas for interventions for the community actions to
ensure that proper DRR interventions are implemented in the community.
g. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)
The FGDs were organized to find potential areas where the communities needed to
focus in the coming days for DRR and climate change adaptation. The objective of this
exercise was to find out the current practices and plans of making communities safer
from climate change adaptation perspective.
30

31. h. Key informant interview
These interviews were made with Teachers, ex-VDC representatives, social elites,
mother groups, local NGOs and CBOs representatives, saving and credit groups, water
users association and community forest user's group representatives. They provided
key information and shared their reflections about climate
Problem tree: Upstream
change and the adaptation approaches to reduce its impacts. VDCs
FGDs were organised with male, female and mixed groups
taking both hill migrants and indigenous Tarai people
separately. The gender, social inclusion and different
occupations were kept in mind while selecting the
participants for FGDs. The key findings arrived from KIIs
and FGDs were later shared in the same mass meeting in
order to ensure authenticity of the information, its reliability
and validity.
3.2 7 Meeting with Government Stakeholders
The perspective of different stakeholders on disaster risk
reduction and climate change adaptation was important to know. Therefore, meetings were
organized with district level stakeholders such as Agriculture Service Centre, Livestock Service
Centre, Forest Range Post, Sub-health Post, and some non-government organisations
(NGOs)/Community Based Organisation (CBOs) and ex-Village Development Committee
(VDC) officials. The main purpose of these meetings was to record the perception and views
on the climate change impacts and adaptation strategies to
Problem tree: Downstream
reduce the risks.
VDCs
3.2.8 Reporting back to the Communities
Once the information and data were collected through
varieties of tools and techniques in the presence of small
groups as well as at the individual interview, mass
meeting was organized at the end of PVA exercise to
present all the PVA findings in each VDC. The purpose of
this exercise was to share main findings about the causes,
effects, impacts of climate change and their adaptation
strategies adopted by the communities and to motivate
the communities in the various aspects of climate change
adaptation process.
3.2.9 Analysis the Vulnerabilities
In order to arrive into specific conclusion, the information gathered from various
sources was synthesized, categorized and analyzed before final write up of report. All
issues related to climate change, its causes, effects, impacts and adaptation strategies
31

32. adopted by the communities especially, poor, women, excluded explored from PVA
process were categorized in to various forms in order to derive key findings, conclusion
and to make major recommendations.
3.3 Outline of the report
The report is organized into seven sections. The first section provides the scenario of
climate change in global and national context and introduction of Nepal and study area
with the second section. The third section covers objectives and methods while the
climatic change trends in Nepal and study area is discussed in the fourth section. The
impact of climate change in different sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by local
people is discussed in fifth section. Conclusion and recommendation is given in the
sixth section. The last section of the report presents the annexes.
32

33. Chapter 4
Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area
This chapter mainly focuses the climatic change trends in Nepal and study area in terms
of temperature and precipitation and changes in these two factors. With the thorough
informational and analysis, the chapter at its later part gives the information on
unpredictable weather events like flood, droughts and thick fog (pala) and its
relationship in climate change.
4.1 Temperature
Tarai belt is the hottest part of the country where the extreme maximum temperature
reaches more than 45ºC. The highest temperature ever recorded was 46.4ºC in
Dhangadhi, a town in far western Tarai, in June 1995 (MoPE, 2004). Similarly, 1990s was
the warmest decade and year 2005 was the warmest year on record, followed by 1998
and 2002. The same types of information are also observed by the Department of
Hydrology and Meteorology (DoHM).
The annual mean temperature is however around 15ºC, and increases from the north to
the south with exceptions in the mountain valleys. The temperature differences are
most pronounced during the dry winter season, and least in the middle of the monsoon.
Analysis of recorded temperature and precipitation data in Nepal are limited. One of
the reasons behind this is relatively short length of records of about 30 years. From
available studies, it has been found that temperature in Nepal is increasing at a rather
high rate. The warming seems to be consistent and continuous after the mid-1970s. The
average warming in annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was 0.06ºC/yr
(Shrestha et al. 1999).
Changing rainfall patterns and higher temperatures have forced people to shorten the
growing season and switch to more expensive hybrid crops. Frequent droughts and
floods are eroding community's assets and people's indigenous knowledge and leaving
people more vulnerable to disaster.
The warming is found to be more pronounced in the high altitude regions of Nepal
such as the middle Mountain and the high Himalaya, while the warming is significantly
lower or even lacking in the Tarai and Siwalik regions. High increase in summer river
flow provides further evidence that high summer temperatures are leading to fast
glacial melt in the Himalayas. Further, warming in the winter is more pronounced
compared to other seasons. In this sense, the trends in observed data are in agreement
with projections made by climate models. It can be seen that there is a general
resemblance between these two series: the generally decreasing trend from the 1940s to
the 1970s and the continuous increasing trend thereafter. This suggests that the climatic
variations in Nepal are closely connected to global climatic changes.
33

34. Similar warming trends observed in Nepal are also observed in the Tibetan Plateau. Liu
et. al. (2002) shows that warming is more pronounced in higher altitude stations than in
lower ones in the Tibetan Plateau. In contrast, the widespread area of lowland India
does not show significant warming. This Box 2: Summer is hotter and winter is colder
suggests that the Himalayas and the In our experiences, hotness and coldness both have
Tibetan Plateau, being elevated regions of increased. We are living in this area since generations.
We never experienced the hotness as in recent years. We
the globe, are sensitive to and affected by have realized that before 2040BS (…AD), the
climate change. temperature was usual. We were able to work in the field
through out the day but now, w have to break at least
3-4 hours in the afternoon because of the extremely
The people of study area also observed high temperature.
that summer are hotter and winters are
colder. They felt the increase in We don’t know why longer droughts are continuously
occurring? As a result of this, we have started to use
temperature especially after 1993. The mosquito net. This practice was also started after 2040.
uses of mosquito nets are widely used May be droughts are responsible to increase the
after this year. There were several temperature. We are not prabidhik (technicians).
incidences of drying up of maize crops in Like increase in temperature, winters are more painful
the hills due to more temperature and for us especially to our children, elderly and aged
frequent droughts cases. livestock. This is new challenge for us. The occurrence
of pala (thick fog) for several days is the new
phenomenon. We never burnt firewood during the day
In order to know the situation of time to warm ourselves. After 2052, thick fog remains
temperature trends, temperature data in even more than 15-30 days. It has caused our life very
difficult. We think, all these phenomenons reflect
Taulihawa station during 1989-2006 was changing climate.
analyzed. Only the data of maximum -Mr Shambhu Prasad Kewat and others, Niglihawa
temperature records for station Taulihawa
(0716) was analyzed and this is shown in figure 1. The graph shows that the annual
maximum temperature is significantly decreasing. The downstream of the basin
experienced not a long term Figure 1: Annual Maximum Temperature at station Taulihawa
decreasing trend of 33
temperature from the records
of year of data (1987) to the 32
end 1990s followed by
significantly decreasing trend
after 2000. The average annual 31
maximum temperature for
this station is 31 0C. 30
4.2 Precipitation
Majority of the climate related 29
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
hazards are linked with flood Years
induced disasters due to
changing pattern of rain in the recent decades. Local community has similar experiences
on the changes in the climate in the recent decades.
34

35. The annual average precipitation in Nepal is 1907 mm, with 80% of it falling during the
monsoon season (from June-September). Precipitations increase when moving from the
western to eastern part of the country. The northwest corner has the least rainfall,
situated in the rain shadow of the Himalayas. Rainfall also varies by altitude; areas over
3,000m experience a lot of drizzle, while below 2,000m, heavy downpours occur. Nepal
receives abundant rainfall but its distribution is not homogenous. The irregular patterns
of the rain are the main causes of floods, landslides, and water induced disasters. In
Nepal, most of the floods occur during the monsoon season (June to September) when
heavy precipitation coincides with snowmelt in the mountains. Spatial distribution of
rainfall is also the reason for occurrence of floods, landslides, and other water related
extreme events in the country.
US Country Studies Program (USCSP) found that the annual precipitation would
increase significantly which reflects that it will likely become drier during the dry
season, with a significantly wetter monsoon season. This pattern of precipitation would
likely cause droughts during the winter months and floods during the monsoon.
In order to know the monsoon and annual rainfall trends in the basin, statistical
analysis of the monthly data during 1971-2006 for the stations Taulihawa in Kapilbastu
and Khanchikot in Arghakhanchi and during 1977-2006 for Patharkot in Kapilbastu
district was
analyzed. Figure A: Compartive analysis of monsoon rainfall and average total annual rainfall for all
Monsoon selected stations
rainfall trend for 2500
Patharkot
station and
2000
Kanchikot
indicated that it
is decreasing but 1500
Rainfall in mm
Taulihawa
extremely Khanchikot
decreasing for 1000
Patharkot
Taulihawa
station (please
refer figures 2-4
500
in annex 1).
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Average
The comparative total
annual
analysis of Months
monsoon
months rainfall
and average
total annual rainfall for all selected stations is also analyzed (please refer figure A). The
35

36. data showed that the trend of monsoon rainfall was increasing in the country but it was
decreasing in the basin. Similarly, the annual rainfall trend in the basin was almost
decreasing (please refer figures 6-8 in annex). The annual rainfall trend for the station
Taulihawa was also significantly decreasing whereas for the others two stations are
almost decreasing. It means the downstream of basin is significantly dryer than before.
Similarly, the mean monthly rainfall during the monsoon months in month-wise for all
three selected stations has been analyzed and the trend is shown in annex 1.
In the study area, people have experienced that the amount of rain after 1990 is
continuously decreasing. For instance, before two decades, there was a practice of
Chattari and Sauin (local umbrella made up of leaves and bamboo) for each and every
family member for monsoon season. It was because the rain is falling continuously even
for two weeks. But now the practice of arranging chattrai and sauin is almost over as
there is no need because rain remains only for 2-4 hours in one event. People observed
that there is havoc and erratic rain for few hours to day and stopped for several days.
People used to use local knowledge for prediction of possible rain and they used to plan
for cultivation. When wind blew from
east to east, when chilly and tobacco Box 3: Mausam are unpredictable
became wet, when people suffered from The amount of rain in the recent years is continuously
decreasing. We have no rain in Bhadra (August 15-
bath diseases, when the cloud turned red September 15) for 10 years. It has hampered the
at the time of sunset, when bhulcharo production of paddy.
barked and flew towards north, during
We are also surprised that why our traditional
sukra rise and set, etc, it was considered knowledge and predictions are failed?. In the past the
that rainfall will take place. But all those old aged experienced people used to predict for
predictions have failed now. possibility of rain and droughts. Accordingly we used to
make plan for cultivation as well as harvesting the crops.
For example, when wind blown from east to east, when
In the recent years, people also have chilly and tobacco became wet, when people suffering
experienced unusual phenomenon like: from bath diseases, when the cloud turns red at the time
of sunset, when bhulcharo (a kind of bird) became bark
more thunderstorm but less rain, more and fly towards north, during sukra (especial star) rise
wind, more mobility of clouds but less and set, etc, were considered the symptoms of rain. All
rain. Elderly people during discussion these predictions are now not workable.
opined the big thunderstorm without rain We are realized that the changing in mausam (weather) is
is indicator of no potentiality of rainfall. the main factor for unbalancing the nature and so as to
occurrence of rain.
-Mr Devi Prasad Acharya, Kopuwa
People also realized that the duration of
monsoon has also drastically decreased.
Before 1989, the monsoon rains used to start at 15th of June and remained up to 15th of
October. But now, there is no certainty of rain. The rain starts late and ends early.
36

37. 4.3 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation
OECD has carried out 17 General Circulation Models for Nepal for assessing changes in
the areas average temperature and precipitation which reflects that there is a significant
and consistent increase in temperatures for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 across the
various climate models. It also has shown that increases in temperatures are somewhat
larger for the winter months (December, January, February) than the summer months.
Climate models also project an overall increase in annual precipitation. The signal
however it's somewhat more pronounced for the increase in precipitation during the
summer monsoon months (June, July and August). These results are broadly consistent,
though more pronounced than the Country Study for Nepal that was based on outputs
from four older generation Global Climate Models (Agarwala et al., 2003). Thus, based
on this analysis, there is a reasonably high probability that the warming trend already
observed in recent decades will continue through the 21st century. There is also a
moderate probability that the summer monsoon might intensify, thereby increasing the
risk of flooding and landslides with subsequent impacts on agriculture and livelihoods.
A study conducted in the vicinity of Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake in Dolakha district suggests
that mean temperature is increasing annually by 0.019°C with an increase in average
summer temperature of 0.044°C. This has resulted in increase in rainfall by 13mm per
year, while the number of rainy days is decreasing by 0.8 day per year. Consequently,
river flow is increasing at the rate of 1.48m3/s per year, which is about 1.5 times higher
than increased precipitation (Dahal, 2006). But the temperature and precipitation data
of Taulihawa station is something different. This also shows the changing patterns of
rain and droughts in the study area.
4.4 Unpredictable weather events
People get prepared for their activities and plans as per the nature of weather patterns.
These are based on the past experiences on nature of clouds, wind flows, historical time
trends of weather pattern, long term observations and the acquired knowledge from the
elderly people. Many people in the rural areas were found further vulnerable due to
climate related phenomenon. It is because they are susceptible to, and unable to cope
with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
In the recent years, people have realized some unpredictable extreme climatic events
such as intense rainfalls, longer and frequent droughts, heat stress, hot winds, cold
waves, hailstones and snowfalls, etc. As a result, the lives and livelihood of people is
always at risks and people are vulnerable.
37

38. Box 4: Floods and landslides worsen the livelihoods
Due to the climate change, we are compelled to face several 4.4.1 Flood
floods and droughts even within the same year. The CRED (2003) found that from 1954 to
settlement along the river banks are swept away by flood 2002, floods have affected over a
many times and the productive land in the hills are
continuously eroded by landslides. The cases of floods and million people in Nepal. During this
landslides are in increasing. We have been facing the flooding period, floods killed 5,003 people (24%
problems since 2004 continuously. In Motipur of Kapilvastu, of deaths from total disasters), left
this year, the flood damaged seven houses, eroded 15-18
bigha of land and changed the river course. 69,350 homeless (45% from total
disasters), and caused damages
Flood and landslides of 2018BS (…AD) has caused over amounting to USD 990,613 (75% from
siltation of Banganga riverbed. As a result, water in the river
is becoming less. Until 2029BS (…AD), we used to cross the total disasters).
Banganga River through elephants as the amount of water
was much even in the winter. Before 036-037BS (…AD), the Similarly, a study conducted by Nepal
width of the river was also narrow. But now there is no water
Trust
during the winter. We have experienced the effects of climate for Nature Conservation
change because of our long experience with the realities of (NTNC) found that Nawalparasi and
the local environment. Kapilvastu in the western region and
The extraction of sand, boulders and stones have caused for Mahottari in the central region are
further erosion of land along the river bank. highly flood prone districts which
-Mr Budhi Ram Tharu, Motipur have received no or very limited
government or external support for
disaster preparedness. Flash floods and a series of dams along the Indo-Nepal border
are the most common causes for flooding. Deaths are recorded with other extensive
devastation: houses and vast land masses are washed away, river banks are breached,
and peoples’ assets such as animals, standing crops, food stocks and non-food items are
damaged or lost.
Due to changing patterns of rain, people are continuously suffering water-induced
disasters. In the hills, more cases of landslides, soil erosion are recorded whereas the
Tarai area is affected by the flooding, inundation, river side cutting/erosion,
sedimentations, etc. These events have resulted crisis for livelihoods of smallholder
farmers as the flood impact more on the live and livelihood of rural poor. Similar
findings are also observed by Gautam et al (2007). According to this study, the major
impacts inferences from the discussion were: river cutting the agricultural land, forceful
migration of settlements that reside along the riverbank, and sedimentation of cropland
by boulders and sand. In the other hand, due to erratic rain, flash flood and longer
droughts, the production of crop has decreased and its trend is continuously increasing.
The unexpected diseases in the crop during and post flood situation also have caused
decrease in crop production. It was shared that the size of the cultivated land was
decreasing whereas the population was increasing every year.
The same study also found that the flood damages the crops and land whereby making
women further poor, and forces them to fall in the vicious circle of poverty. It reduces
the socio-economic strengths and compels to take loan from private moneylender to run
38

39. their livelihood. The flood damages stored seed and grains due to flooding and
inundation. Its direct impacts are visualised by the women on the crop of next year
planning and thus on the food security. Larger investment and fewer returns from the
agriculture activities discourage the women to be involved in this sector. But there is no
alternative. Hence, poor investment further impacts on the production and it
discourages them to fully rely on agricultural activities (ibid).
It was found that erratic rain, floods, droughts and other natural calamities are the
common phenomenon in the study village and people experienced these unusual
situations for more than 15 years. These situations are inviting new fear and trauma.
Gautam (2007a, b, c) also observed that in the flood affected area, people are suffering
from many socio-psycho problems due to poor social network, inequality, poor social
institutions and integration, poor social insurance and social solidarity, etc. Similar
findings are also observed by Gautam (2006a, b) and Gautam (2004) in eastern Nepal.
According to him, in the flood affected area, people are suffering from many psycho-
socio problems due to relocation, poor social closure, collective action and community
safety. When a community is hit by natural calamities, all of its social institutions are
likely to be affected. Similarly, Gautam et al (2007) identified that after natural
calamities, the entire social fabric that defines a population as a community is seriously
weakened. People have to relocate some permanently, hence neighbourhoods are
destroyed, friendships are severed, support networks are broken and family
relationships come under greater stress. Schools, social groups and families are apt to
never be the same.
In Kapilvastu, people shared that after the construction of Banganga barrage, the
problem of flooding and inundation in the river side of Motipur and
Banganga/Kopuwa VDCs was realized. The river course was also widening. The
settlements along both bank of river is being threatened every year from flood. But in
fact the deforestation in upper catchments is the main problem as river carries soil and
boulders along with water and deposits in the flood plain, which cause the problem of
flooding and inundation.
It was observed that communities have initiated many actions to build raised
embankments to connect the villages to each other and to the main road, providing an
escape route during the flood season. Culverts are being built to reduce water pressure,
and tube-wells with raised hand pumps are constructed to guarantee safe drinking
water when flood levels rise during monsoon.
Flood forecasting, early warning system and community based flood management can
save many lives and properties before, during and after the flooding situation. In the
study area, communities are enriched with indigenous knowledge on flood forecasting,
early warning and flood management practices. Though they have inadequate
knowledge on technical aspects about these issues, the nature of continuously
39

40. struggling with the flood disaster every year make them more knowledgeable in these
aspects. In several instances, their predictions about the rain and flood have come true
and the practices as part of the early warning system and flood management have
become more realistic. This is largely because they know the local context, the physical
set up, the problems of floods and possible solutions. Therefore, flood affected
communities are the storehouse of extensive knowledge on local physical condition and
history and trends of the flood.
As a part of flood forecasting, people have been using many skills and knowledge like
position of the cloud in the sky, watching the extent of rainfall in upper catchments and
Churia area, mobility of ants, abnormal fly bite, and abnormal crying/voices of animals
and birds. Similarly, people also used position of stars, magnitude of hotness, the
magnitude of thunderstorm and wind blown as early warning indicators. As part of
adaptation actions before the flood, people have been using some measures like
management of search and rescue related materials in advance, stocking Non Timber
Forest Products (NTFPs) as medicine to treat livestock, creating small drainage in each
plot of land, preparing the khatiya/palang of bigger height and using doko to save
chicken from flood. Similarly, people also practice preparing the grain storage,
procuring essential drugs in advance, managing firewood, storing dried food for
livestock, improving drainage, raising homestead and increasing the height of hand
pumps. It was found that the people from lower catchment were more knowledgeable
and aware to reduce the impacts of flood.
4.4.2 Droughts Box 5: The impacts of drought are even severe
We have been experiencing the impact of droughts as
In the local people's experiences, the cases
excessive heat; poor drinking water supply; poor crop
of droughts are also in increasing. Most of yields; lack of litter and grass; food shortages and
the droughts cases are found when there hunger. These are strong systems of droughts. In
is a need of rain water. Such events are drought period, many people suffer from many diseases.
In such a situation, we have no alternatives other than to
generally: during the seed bed sale our livestock, land, jewelry and other household
preparation, flowering stage of the paddy, items to run livelihood. Some people also borrow some
irrigating wheat and other winter crops. money from money lenders and saving and credit
groups. The loss from a year’s drought affects for
There is a belief that if there is even one number of years.
star twinkling at night in the month of -Ms Radha Magar, Subarakhal
July-August, then the production of crops
is decreased by 100,000 muri5. But all these perceptions are like fables.
It was found that frequent droughts destroy and erode social assets which are the very
means for adaptation. When their frequency and intensity increases, poor communities
are left with no time to recover from previous impacts through either asset
accumulation or acquiring the skills and knowledge necessary for adapting to future
5
1 muri equals 80 kg
40

41. climate changes. Consequently, they are being subjected to continuous hunger and
deeper vicious circle of poverty and vulnerability.
Regmi and Adhikari (2007) found that disasters severely disrupt livelihoods and
community development, whether they are flash floods or slower onset events, such as
drought. In fact, droughts can affect a greater number of people, and often the event
does not bring assistance until it is very late. By that point, many families could have
sold off their productive assets, and turned to experience a precarious state.
4.4.3 Thick fog (pala)
The experience of thick fog during winter morning is also new for local people. Yes, the
fog in winter is natural phenomenon but now the pattern of fog is also changing. The
fog now remains for several weeks to months. Before 2036BS (…AD) there was no
problem of pala (thick fog) in winter. Box 6: Thick fogs are harmful now
Before 2043BS (…AD), fog remained only We also experience thick fog during winter and ii used
for 4-5 days. The smoke from factories; tobe beneficial for lentil crop. But surprisingly all the
burning from increasing population and winter crops use pesticide from thick fog and of thick
compelled to
are affected
to reduce the effect
we are
resulting change in climate are the main fog. This problem started after 2042BS (1995AD).
reasons for pala to remain for several -Mr Laxman Chaudhary, Banganga-7, Sukumbasi Tole
days.
The pala during the winter cause decrease in the production of winter crops. Potato and
pulses are badly affected from pala. The cultivation of mustard is almost zero and there
is no crop of chana (beans) in the recent years.
People opined that if they have paddy that could be harvested within a short duration,
people could harvest it earlier to allow cultivation of early winter crops to be protected
from pala.
People also shared that the trends of pala Box 7: Production of winter crops has drastically
is increasing while the trend of rain is decreased
In the past the pala was evident before and after 2 days
decreasing. A strong correlation between of Maghe sakranti (15th January) but now it remains for
pala and rain is also observed by the local a month. Due to this the production of potato, tomato,
people. As there was no problem of pala lentil, and mustard is drastically reduced. People are
unable to harvest mustard and other winter crops
last winter, there was excess of rain because of thick fog.
during last monsoon. Last years' rain is -Mr Barma Singh, Jarlaiya, Niglihawa
considered as good rain within ten years
of period.
The thick fog is drying forest resources, the Sisau trees at one hand and people cite
example of its affect in livestock deaths.
41

42. Hence, the changes in weather events drastically changes the way of people's lives and
livelihoods. Frequent droughts and flooding cases are not only eroding the social assets
and knowledge of people, but also leaving people more vulnerable to disaster and
pushing them into hunger, famine and poverty.
42

43. Chapter 5
Climate Change, Its Impacts and Community Based Adaptation Strategies
This chapter explains how climate change is linked to various sectors and how these
sectors are affected from climate change. The broad sectors of analysis include
agriculture, animal husbandry, health, forestry, water and biodiversity.
Though people have poor knowledge on the technical matters of climate change but
they have shown several evidences which demonstrate that they have perceived, felt
and experienced about its effects. The amount and patterns of rain-fall, the frequency
and extent of droughts, the trends of crop failure due to emergence of new crop
diseases, etc are some of the visible impacts. Through the exercise of historical timeline,
people have told the stories transferred from one generation to another about the
changes of climate and its impacts in local context. They sometimes have used the local
knowledge on the basis of position of clouds, wind flows, position of stars, rainbow and
with insects, pest and animal behaviour for the prediction of weather but such
predictions could not be completely relied upon. People linked that these were due to
climate change.
There are many evidences that show that how climate change is affecting peoples' lives
and livelihood. The rain pattern over the years is a live experience. People have been
facing longer and frequent droughts, erratic rainfall, storms, thunderstorm and
hailstone. As a result, crop failures are common; the cases of landslide,
flooding/inundation, river side erosion are other phenomenon's and further these are
in increasing order. The spread of new water and vector borne diseases are other
impacts of climate change. The most vulnerable ecological and socio-economic systems
are those with the greatest sensitivity to climate change and the least ability to adapt.
Nepal is closely linking climate change adaptation to poverty alleviation, in addition to
maximizing synergies with other environmental concerns such as land degradation,
biodiversity, and disaster reduction. Nepal's major natural resources, biodiversity and
water, are at the forefront of climate vulnerability (Raut, 2006). At a conceptual level,
adaptation in human systems can be thought of as driven by two core processes:
selective pressures (the equivalent of natural selection in ecosystems) and what might
be termed agency-driven innovation (that is, proactive forms of innovation or action in
response to perceived constraints and opportunities). These two processes are not
separate; they interact as agents experience selective pressures or perceive opportunities
and most commonly act pro-actively or ‘adapt’ within the limits of their capacities,
perceptions and priorities. Nepal’s complex topography and geography leaves it quite
vulnerable to climate change. Mainly the agriculture, animal husbandry, health,
forestry, water and biodiversity, among others, would have serious consequences by
the effects of climate change. The following section deals the general background, the
43

44. impacts of climate change in these sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by the
people.
5.1 Agriculture
Since long, Nepal is considered one of the agriculture dominated countries and
livelihood of the people is entirely dependent on agriculture. Food, the basic need for
lives, is also acquired from agriculture. Unfortunately, this sector is particularly
vulnerable to the vagaries of the weather. Temperature, humidity, solar radiation and
precipitation are important climatic factors for crops. Permanent changes in these
factors can lead to failure of crops and subsequent low crop production. Extreme
climatic events such as intense rainfalls causing flooding and landslides, droughts and
other stress are undesirable. The associated crop failure also invites famine. Therefore,
whether it brings increasing floods and storms or worse drought, climate change has
been havoc for poor farmers, jeopardizing their livelihoods and threatening their food
security in the long run.
With staggering increase in population and food demand, even a slight decline in
annual food production is a matter of great concern in the country like Nepal. This
sector is adversely affected by the loss of top fertile soil due to soil erosion, landslides
and floods. Soil loss is a major cause of decline in agriculture production and the
negative effects of climate change may further aggravate this situation.
The agriculture sector has many challenges. First, numerous studies highlighted that
across the country, over half of all households rely on less than 0.5 hectares (0.67ha
equals 1 bigha) of land to support each family of around six members. Second, the
development of agriculture is still in subsistence level. Third, limited crops are the
sources of food security. Paddy in the Tarai and maize, wheat and barley in the hills are
the common crops to grow. Forth, there is negative correlation between increase in
population and food demand with total annual production due to many reasons
including variation in weather and climatic patterns.
The flood related disasters challenges the heavy soil erosion and landslide particularly
in the hills and river-side erosion, land cutting, siltation, flooding and longer period
inundations problems resulting reduction in yields.
The proven research findings and the responses of the people during the fieldwork
confirmed that the rate of precipitation of winter season (especially from November to
April) is decreasing which directly impacted the winter and spring crops. The
continuous reduction in production has incessantly been creating hunger,
vulnerabilities and famine in the poor communities.
44

45. Irrigation is the major input for the better agriculture production. It is estimated that
about 80% of all water in Nepal is used for irrigation. But the changes in temperature
and precipitation will alter the hydrological cycle. People during the discussion stressed
that higher temperatures, increased evapo-transpiration and decreased winter
precipitation are the main consequence of repeated droughts. This finding is also
supported by the study carried out by CSTNEPAL (1997). The study confirmed that
increased variability would severely impact irrigation and the farming livelihoods
dependent on it.
Changes may result in unpredictable and unreliable runoff, posing potentially serious
risk to water supplies in the lean season. This has already caused severe droughts in
Iran and Pakistan in areas that depend on water from mountain sources (Subbiah,
2001). Increased variability would severely impact irrigation and the farming
livelihoods dependent on it. The land that can be cultivated varies by location and
season, since the vast majority of surface water irrigation systems in Nepal depend on
the water flowing at its source (USCSP, 1997).
5.1.1 Impacts of climate change on Agriculture
The changes in climate impact the agriculture sectors in several forms. The major
impacts of climate change in agriculture sector are discussed hereunder.
a. Decreasing trends of crop Box 8: Weather related extreme events caused reduction in
production
production In our opinion, the reasons for crop failure are longer droughts,
Several studies in the past have high temperature, cold wave, pala and heavy rain for short period.
argued that for the better crop We think these entire phenomenons are due to climate change. We
did not experience such events before 23 years.
production, the role of
temperature, humidity, solar The amount of water during the monsoon is continuously
radiation and precipitation is decreasing. The rainfall occurs only for few days but the extent of
rain is high as compared to past. Due to this, we are continuously
important as they all are suffering from landslide and soil erosion in the hills and river side
necessary climatic factors. It is cutting, and inundation in the Tarai. We are facing more flood
obvious that permanent changes induced disasters for the past decades.
in these factors can lead to failure The importance of slow but continuous rain is especially necessary
of some crops and can reduce in for paddy during flowering stage, otherwise the production is not
yield. Similarly, another study satisfactory. Similarly, heavy wind is harmful at the flowering stage.
We have not experienced mild rain since 2043.
suggested that temperature rises
beyond 2°C are, according to the In these days, the nature of droughts is also different. Past droughts
IPCC, likely to result in reduced have been short and rainfall used to compensate the effects of
droughts but now we have been facing many drought events
crop yields in most tropical, sub- without rainfall. I think all these actions are responsible to reduce
tropical, and mid-latitude the crop production.
regions. Apart from these, with -Ms Laxmi Chaudhary, Banganga
increasing temperature, more
cases of flooding in low-lying
areas will be high, declines in food production, an increase in crop diseases.
45

46. The study found that the major causes of crop failures of winter crops are mainly due to
unpredictable longer and frequent droughts and monsoon crops due to heavy rain,
landslide, flooding and inundation. As noted earlier, in the hills, majority of the
population is directly dependent on a few crops, such as maize, wheat and barley and
wheat and paddy in the Tarai region. These crops are very sensitive to climate change
and its impact is reduction in yield. Rise
Table 9: Production Scenario within 30 years in temperature has a negative effect on
Crops Total production
1977 2007 maize as well as wheat and mustard.
Paddy 10 quintal/bigha 30 quintal/bigha The production of other winter crops
Mustard 60 kg/kattha 40 kg/kattha such as cereal, pulses, vegetables, fruits
Wheat No practice at all 20-25 quintal/bigha etc is also reduced due to changes in the
Maize 6 quintal/bigha 4 quintal/bigha
Pulses 6 quintal/bigha 2 quintal/bigha climate particularly due to longer
Source: FGDs and KIIs drought and erratic rain. The
production of chana is completely extinct
from many parts of the Tarai region including the study area (see table 9).
Monsoon crops are suffering from wind-storm and heavy rain during flowering stage of
plant. The wind during flowering stage is considered very harmful especially for paddy
crops.
Despite of unfavourable Box 9: Agriculture sector is badly affected by changing climate
climatic conditions, it was events
We are surprised that since 2001, there was new problem of more
found that the production of flowering and less fruiting in the fruits and vegetables. We at first observed
paddy and maize is this case in lauka (gourd) and mangos. This trend is continuously
increasing whereas the increasing. Now we could not be able to harvest the pear, mango, guava,
litchi fruits, etc, and cucumber, beans vegetables unless we used pesticides
production of others crops is to resume the flowers. We are surprised on these changes required. Use of
decreasing. The reasons for hybrid seeds instead of local is also the demand of time and nature.
increasing the production of
In our experiences, the unpredictable climate and rapidly changing weather
paddy and maize are due to has caused many new diseases in crops and fruits. Khirro, ashuro, simali,
excess use of chemical ketuki, kharani, nim, etc were used once crops were diseased, and their
fertilizer and pesticides. The effectiveness was also very good. We had no idea of English medicines
(pesticides) then. Now, unless the use of aausadhi (insecticides and
changing climatic pesticides), there is no chance of harvesting the good crop yield.
phenomenon are
responsible for decreasing As the production is drastically decreased, we have reduced interest in the
cultivation as well as the sharecropping practices. The weather related
the crops other than paddy phenomenon is also responsible for the erosion of fertile top soil in the
and maize. The data of crop hills. More cases of landslides are also observed in the recent years. This is
production is given in table one of the main reasons for increasing trends of seasonal migration.
9. We also experienced that the changes in climatic conditions also reduced
the working hours for agriculture and increased the workload of women
As crop yields decline and and children in agriculture. These all phenomenon have impacted our
agriculture patterns and behaviors.
resources become scarcer, -Mr. Balaram Gurung, Subarnakhal
women’s workload has been
expanded, jeopardizing their opportunities to be engaged outside the home or to attend
46

47. school. In times of drought, they will also have to spend more time performing another
typical female responsibility — carrying, purifying and supplying the family’s water
(Mitchell et al., 2007, Gautam et al., 2007).
b. Much flowering and poor fruiting in the fruits and vegetables
The visible but surprising phenomenon like much flowering and poor fruiting in the
fruits and vegetables was observed by local people in the recent years in the study
areas. They have no idea about its root causes but they argued that the changing
climatic condition is the main reason. Since then people have been motivated to use
pesticides and insecticides in the fruits and vegetables in order to resume the flowers. It
is because unless they resume the flowers, there is poor chance of fruiting. Using
pesticides and insecticides is unnecessary financial burden. As a result, many people are
discouraged to cultivate the crops that are more affected by the weather variability and
people have shifted to new occupations.
c. Reducing the scope of on-farm activities
In the recent years, people have changed their agri-based occupation to off-farm
activities/or in seasonal labour work in India. The unpredictable climate and rapidly
changing weather have resulted the delay in seedbed preparation. The delay in seed
bed means delay in paddy transplantation. And delay in transplantation means
reduction in yield. Even investment of handsome money in agriculture inputs, in the
recent years, people are unable to get satisfactory return. This is the reason that people
are not much interested in the sharecropping and rental land practices that used to be
popular in Tarai region of Nepal.
The continuous cases of more floods and droughts further worsen the lives and
livelihood of people. As a result, people are slowly attracted in off-farm activities hence
they are interested to invest in these sectors within and outside the village.
d. Explosion of Pest and Insect in crops
It was shared that local people have enough Box 10: Over use of pesticides affects
our human health
knowledge on preparation and application of We are compelled to eat pesticide in our
herbicides when crops suffer from diseases. Khirro, food because we eat off-seasonal
ashuro, simali, ketuki, nim, etc are some of the non- vegetables. The production of off-
seasonal vegetable is higher because of
timber forest products (NTFPs) that have been used the use of chemical fertilizer, pesticide
as herbicides since generations. Their effectiveness and insecticide. The insects and pests
used to be more than the pesticides and insecticides in are not killed even after the use of Meta
acid. The taste of cucumber and
the past. But now after the application of chemical cauliflower is gone completely. It is
fertilizer, the effectiveness of these NTFPs is greatly necessarily to seek the alternatives of
reduced. chemical fertilizer, pesticides otherwise
we will die in some years.
-Mr Jhavilal Bhandari, Motipur 4, Balapur
In the recent years, people have to observe many
unidentified diseases in crops. Some of the popular diseases includes: whitening of
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48. leafs, Patero, Latti, etc. People said that high humidity creates a favourable environment
for the growth of fungal and bacterial diseases in the crops. People repeatedly
expressed that the explosion of crop diseases is increasing due to excess use of chemical
fertilizer, pesticides and insecticides. Poor rain and longer droughts are other reasons as
perceived by local people.
Due to land fragmentation, people wish to produce more grain from small chunk of
land. Hence, they mostly use more fertilizers and other agriculture inputs. This is the
main reason for grooming new diseases in the crops.
There is poor possibility of cultivating off-seasonal vegetables like cucumber, beans and
tomatoes without the application of pesticides. In the other hand, people opined that
the production of mustard, potato and pulses are reduced due to excess use of pesticide
and insecticide. The production of maize, which is the prominent crop of mid hills, has
gone tremendously. Before 30 years the stem of maize used to be too high that people
could tab their buffaloes and the yield of the maize was also very impressive. But all
these have changed.
e. Erosion of fertile top soil
The erratic rain in the recent years has resulted more landslide and erosion cases in the
hills. Top soil is considered very fertile because people treated this part of soil every
year with compost manure. In Subarnakhal and Simalpani VDCs, the top fertile soil was
no more available in the recent years due to soil erosion, landslides and floods. About 5-
7 cm top soil is reduced as compared to the situation of 1987. Therefore, soil loss is a
major cause of decline in agriculture production in the hills and its effects is negative
particularly in yield. The germination and growth rate are affected.
f. Reduction in working hours for agriculture
Due to excess temperature, working hours in summer are decreased as compared to
past. Before a decade back, agriculture wage labourer used to work 8 hours from 9 am
to 5 pm without break. Now the way of working has changed. The worker in the field
gets involved in morning from 8-11 am and 3-5 pm in the afternoon. The period
between 11 am to 3 pm is too hot during the summer. People shared that this is the
visible evidences of raising temperature.
g. Shift to use hybrid seeds
Due to reduction of monsoon season/period by 1.5 month, the cultivation of long
period of monsoon crops is not feasible in the changed context in the project areas. As
the rain starts late and stop early, people are unable to cultivate long variety of paddy
like: Sattehri, kanajira, basmati, aanagi, aanadi, kala nimak, loti, etc. As the local varieties of
paddy needs much water as irrigation, people are compelled to use hybrid varieties of
paddy after 1981. Additionally, people are compelled to change seeds every year
because second generation seed wouldn’t work properly. Changing rainfall patterns
48

49. and higher temperatures have forced people to adopt short ripen varieties and to switch
to more expensive hybrid crops.
Unfortunately, the cost of hybrid seed is quite costly that poor can not afford. After the
cultivation of hybrid seeds, people are unable to cultivate local variety because pests in
these crops would destroy them. It shows that the changing pattern of climate mostly
has affected the poor and excluded communities.
h. Increase the workload of women and children
With the increasing trend of crop failures and limited on-farm scopes within the village
due to weather variation, the male counterparts used to go for seasonal migration
outside the village leaving women and children at home alone. The social structure
does not allow women to work outside the village. In such a situation women have
additional family roles. Apart from running family affairs, they have to look after the
livestock and involve in agriculture activities. When the crop fails, they have to take
loan from private moneylenders to run their families. These phenomenons push them
in vicious circle of poverty.
i. Increasing trends of seasonal migration
The trend of seasonal migration is common phenomena of the recent years. Its reasons
are many. Some of the outstanding reasons as shared during study are: crop failure,
decrease in land size, more cases of landslides in the hills, etc. Several water induced
disasters like landslide, erosion of productive soil, etc are other reasons. Seasonal
migration was reported to be started after 1990.
Changing weather events and climatic conditions have continuously emerged new
problems and challenges. As a result, there has been propagation of hunger, famine and
poverty. Many people from hills have migrated to Tarai permanently after their
livelihoods threatened by water induced disasters. With rapid immigration to Tarai,
population pressure has increased here, with increasing concerns in the balance of
ecology and socio-cultural set-up. The people of Tarai and hill have been migrating in
the urban centres within Nepal and cities of India and even in Arabian countries in
search of employment.
While young men are forced to leave their communities in search of new employment,
women, children and elderly are left behind alone to run their household livelihood. To
feed their families, women mostly borrow loan from neighbours in high interest rate.
When the food runs out, they even sell their livestock like chicken, goats. When their
male counterpart returns home with some earning, majority of the earned amount have
to be used to payback the loan including the interest.
Women during the discussions opined that the production is continuously decreasing
while investment in agriculture is increasing. This is also the demand of time. The
49

50. investment in agriculture is often risky due to unpredicted climatic conditions. The
growing population pressure results in heavy encroachment along the riverbank
(Gautam et al, 2007). Gautam (2007c) found in Banke and Bardiya that family roles and
responsibilities undergo considerable change with worsened economic hardship and
living conditions. It was also found that during the relocation, people are unable to
adopt parma system to ease the situation in the study area. The flood-affected families
were reported to be living with relatives, some as welcomed and some as unwanted
guests hence creating space in social milieu of kinship.
5.1.2 Adaptation strategies
a. Farm off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties
In order to escape from continuous crop failure from unusual rain and frequent
droughts, people are forced to seek some alternatives. For instance, some people have
been trying to reduce the paddy land and introduce vegetables and other crops that are
less susceptible with flooding and droughts in additional land. Cauliflower, cabbage,
chilli, tomato and cucumber are widely cultivated as alternative options to paddy.
In general, off-seasonal vegetable farming and maize are the common practices of
cultivation. In some area, people cultivate Box 11: New skills and knowledge are needed
sunflower, banana in commercial scale We have been practicing our cultivation frame with
changing aspects of climate. In the past, we used to
and NTFPs as an alternative crops.
plant our crops after the first rains, but since we started
experiencing frequent droughts and floods, we are
In addition to these, changes in crops and planting our crops much earlier. This is to allow the
crop varieties, crop diversification and crops to meet the first rains with the hope that they will
mature before the end of the rainy season and to
development of genetically adaptive prevent the crops from being washed away by the
varieties could be other adaptation floods. But these tricks have been ineffective in the
strategies. recent years.
The changing nature of mausam has also forced to adopt
b. Establishment of dairy cooperative off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties in order to get
The practice of stall feeding is widely more yield. We are also seeking new alternative
opportunities. The establishment of dairy cooperative,
adopted in study area when the yields of gaining new skills, initiating community based micro-
conventional crops are continuously credit programs are some of the very important
reduced. The development of dairy is the activities. We think, it is too risky to totally rely in crop
production.
new initiative in the study area. Now, -Ms Mahili Bhat Chhetri, Subarnakhal
selling milk is one of the potential
occupations.
c. Capacity building in new skills
People have been motivated to learn new skills and knowledge. It is not only interest
but the demand of time. People have developed the skills and initiated the work in
commercial approach.
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51. With the training in different off-farm activities, either people are engaged in the
cottage industries within the village or going abroad for employment in Arabian
countries and India. This is the reason that youth force in the remote village no longer
exists in the village.
c. Accommodate in the crop growing season
Changes in rainfall have resulted in changes in crops grown. For example, maize used
to be grown in April, but it is now being grown in November-December.
Before 1992, the paddy transplantation work used to begin from 1st August to 15th
September but now this work is completed within 15th July because of narrow rainy
season. The cultivated season is also narrowing.
People are not willing to carry out these practices but the changing climate has forced
them to do so. For instance, late cultivation of paddy hampered the cultivation season
of wheat and mustard. In the other hand, people used to transplant hybrid paddy quiet
earlier otherwise it is affected by insecticide and pests. All these practices are carried
out on the basis of experiences.
People now opt for short-season hybrid varieties because the growing season is shorter.
Rainfall patterns have hindered the growing of long-season local indigenous varieties of
crops. The short duration radish and carrot are common in these days.
f. Initiate community based micro-credit programs
In each village, saving and credit initiatives are grooming in the recent years. These
initiatives are especially targeted to escape from expensive interest rate in the village. In
initiating small enterprises at local level, and managing agri-inputs (seed, tools,
fertilizer, pesticides, etc) on time, people use the credit facilities. Apart from these
initiatives, people are also engaged in vegetable farming, bee keeping, goat raising,
poultry farming, etc with minimal credit mobilization. These initiatives are supportive
to minimize the risks of crop failure and extreme weather shocks.
These groups are also managing the institutional support in the group approach from
GOs and NGOs sectors. For instance, in Motipur and Kopuwa VDCs of Kapilvastu,
these groups are receiving the seed grants for cereal crop demonstration, treadle pump,
potato and onion seed in 50% subsidy rate. Apart from these, these groups also received
Rs 40,000 from DADO for irrigation, Rs 25,000 from APPSP for seed sprayer medicine,
training and cash support for semi incredible groups from GTZ, Minikit distribution
from agriculture support centre Kupowa,
g. Adopt improved agriculture practices
In the upper catchments area, the slash and burn practices are widely adopted. These
are also the reasons for landslides and erosion. In the downstream, due to improper
51

52. water management and irrigation facilities, flooding and inundation problems are
experienced. These disasters also hamper the good farming system.
5.2. Animal Husbandry
Animal husbandry is the second important occupation in the remote village after
agriculture. There were no diseases in livestock until 1993. After the use of pesticides
and insecticides in crop, grass and straw are also contaminated. These contaminated
feed are the source of diseases. The contaminated water is other reason. New diseases in
poultry are common. Goats have been suffering from PPR diseases. These new diseases
are attributed by local people to the results of changing climate system.
5.2.1 Impact of Climate Change in Animal Husbandry
Like agriculture sector, the changes
in climatic conditions also hamper Box 12: Changing climate worsen the animal husbandry
the animal husbandry in great practices
Animal husbandry has been important source of income of rural
extent. Some of the prominent people since long. But, the rural economy is getting meager due
impacts include: to reduction in animal husbandry practices. More flood, river
banks are silted by sand, stone and boulders has caused reduction
in grazing land. As a result, livestock farming is in decreasing
a. Reduction in grazing land order because of the scarcity of grass, forest, grazing land and
In the past, there was a general labor.
practice of farming more livestock
Not only the scarcity of grazing land, are we also continuously
for milk, meat and manure. The suffering from new diseases in livestock. In our experiences, it is
number of livestock was often due to use of insecticides and pesticides. We are not received any
considered on of the indicators of technical advice. No JTA visited our village to help us. Our goats
are suffering from many diseases. We assumed that there is a
people's well-being and there was poisonous grass in the forest. In the past some beneficial NTFP
plenty of grazing land. Shifting balance those poisonous grass but now there is no NTFP's in the
grazing practice was in place fro forest. NTFP's are illegally harvested. Once our livestock are
suffering from diseases, we started to cut and eat. That’s why we
Siwalik to inner Tarai. are suffering from many diseases.
But now, willingness to produce During last 10-14 years the extent of disease in livestock is in
increasing order but we got nothing from agriculture support
more ghee from livestock is centre as our livelihood entirely depends upon agriculture and
strange. The changing climatic livestock. So, we need more support from technician.
pattern has significantly reduced Unfortunately we never see the technician because we are living
the grazing land along the river in remote areas. The occurrence of thick fog in the Tarai area has
also forced to close shifting livestock grazing.
bank due to frequent flood and -Mr. Bali Ram Majhi, Niglihawa
sedimentation along it. The big
floods with boulders make the river bank desertified. Now, there is no more grazing
area. The forest along the village is also converted in to community forest. In many
places, forest land is turned into farming land.
For instance, due to the river erosion, seven families from Loharibagiya, Kopuwa were
migrated to Madhuban, Motipur because they were unable to raise their livestock. Now
52

53. some families again have come back to the previous settlements as the river has left
some land along the riverbank which can be utilized for livestock raising.
Due to increasing frequency of natural disaster like landslide and river side pollution,
many people have migrated from hills. The population pressure in Tarai also has
reduced the grazing land. In the other hand, due to loss of green patches along the river
bank, livestock rearing is decreasing. Likewise, due to reduction in grazing land, people
are practicing limited livestock farming using stall feeding system. The practice of
tending hybrid varieties of livestock is also common. For instance, in Tarai, the cow
rearing has reduced and subsequently animal manure has also reduced.
b. High mortality of livestock
Until 2048-50BS (…AD), the number of poultry and goat each farming household kept
was more than at the moment. People are now reluctant to increase commercial
farming of these livestock because of unidentified diseases. The common diseases in
livestock are vyagute, khoret, mate, padake, charchare, paralysis, stomach swelling,
ganghuti, fever, worm, etc. PPR and bird flu are new diseases. People linked that the
access uses of pesticides and insecticides in the crops with limited other climatic
constraints are root cause of livestock deaths.
The condition of high temperature and extreme cold are unfavourable for livestock.
These situations often invite the favourable environment for communicable diseases in
livestock. People reported that the mortality rate of livestock is especially high after
1991-93.
c. Closure of shifting livestock grazing
Before 1988, there was a practice of shifting livestock rearing from Siwalik to inner Tarai
during winter. That was a popular practice. The period was from November to
February in each year. It was believed that inner Tarai is very potential for livestock
grazing. In fact, buffalos and cows used to give Box 13: People have shifted to improved
more milk once they were grazed in nutritious varieties of livestock
grassland. The Gothala (cow boys) used to collect One of is introduction of improved varieties
climate
the benefits of changing pattern of
ghee, sale and procure rice. Sometimes they used of livestock in the village. Jursi Gai and
to barter rice and turmeric with ghee. The other Murra Bhainsee (cow and buffaloes) varieties
purpose of the shifting livestock was to involve in of improved keeping many common. The
practices of
livestock are
unproductive
buy and sale of livestock. livestocks like cows have been drastically
reduced.
But now this popular practice is closed. We are now trying to resume grazing land by
Continuous thick fog during winter and changes reclaiming the degraded land along the river
in climate induced disease, have reduced people’s bank. The another aspect to adopt the new
initiatives is
introduction of agro-forestry
willingness to take risk. Due to pala and thick fog environment.
during winter, many livestock have fallen ill. Now -Mr. Damodar Acharya, Motipur
majority of the cow boys are working in Arabian countries.
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54. 5.2.2 Adaptation strategies
The following are some of the adaptation practices to minimize the impacts of climate
change on animal husbandry.
a. Raise improved varieties of livestock
With the changing pattern of climate, people prefer to raise improved variety of
livestock instead of local. Now the emphasis is given to milk than compost manure.
Jursi Gai and Murra Bhainsee varieties of improved livestock are common. More milk
giving livestock are popular because selling milk is very easier because of dairy
development.
With the few numbers of livestock, there is no need of grazing land. Stall feeding
practice is largely practiced. There is increasing trend of replacing unproductive
livestock with improved varieties of livestock.
Similarly, cultivating new varieties of grass and fodder in private land is also popular.
The new varieties like NB 21, Napier, Amrisho, epil-epil, fast growing bamboo, etc are
common. Similarly, the promotion of private agro-forestry initiatives at local level is
also increasing now.
b. Reclaim the degraded land along the river bank
With the continuous flood, the river banks are like desserts. Now, people have group
approach to reclaim the degraded land for fodder promotion, income generation
activities through cash crops and community plantation through community forest
approach. In many places, people are being involved in group approach for the best use
of degraded land. These initiatives have become the source of income for poor people
living along the river bank in one hand and fodder supplement for livestock on the
other hand.
5.3 Human Health
Several studies opined that with global warming, it will lead to serious impacts on
human health. These effects will be direct and indirect. Indirect effects will happen
because of the close relationship between climatic conditions and insects and rodent
populations. This in turn will affect diseases such as asthma, as well as increase the
range of vector-borne parasitic diseases like malaria and Japanese Encephalitis,
leishmaniasis, etc. Food-borne diseases are likely to increase as a result of warmer
temperatures. Water-borne diseases may also increase because of extra demands on
diminished water supplies, which will in turn increase the risk of contaminated
supplies reaching the public. According to the World Health Organisation, UNEP, and
the World Meteorological Program, at least 150,000 people die unnecessarily each year
as a direct result of global warming. Warmer and wetter conditions could trigger
unprecedented levels of disease outbreaks in both humans and the natural world.
54

55. The same study further found that the direct effects of global warming will include heat
stress, with associated cardio-vascular effects, as well as the physical and psychological
impact of storms, floods and other extreme weather events. Adoption of the climate-
policy scenario was estimated to avoid 700,000 premature deaths each year as a result of
reduced particulate pollution with the greatest effect in developing countries.
Global warming is expected to expose
millions of people to new health risks. Box 14: New diseases are the product of chemical
The most vulnerable to ill health are those fertilizer and insecticides
Due to excess use of bikasi mal (chemical fertilizer),
communities living in poverty, those with angreji aauisadhi (insecticide) and environmental
a high incidence of under nutrition, and pollution, newly born babies have been increasingly
those with a high level of exposure to suffering from jaundice, dysentery, and diarrhea and
skin disease. We never suffered to this scale in the past.
infectious diseases. The current lack of -Ms Shova Chauwan, Niglihawa-6, Jarlaiya
primary healthcare for large portions of
the population also contributes to their vulnerability in this sector to future climate
change.
The impact of global warming is clearly observed in human health in the study area.
The areas that were once free of malaria now have become susceptible as local climate
has changed and safe drinking water has become harder to get. There has also been a
noticeable increase in diseases such as cholera and dysentery associated with changes in
rainfall patterns.
The proven studies highlighted that the risk of Malaria, Kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis
and mosquito are common with climate change scenarios for Nepal. The subtropical
and warm temperate regions of Nepal would be particularly vulnerable to Malaria and
Kala-azar. Similarly, an increase of temperature would make the subtropical region of
Nepal more vulnerable to Japanese encephalitis. Alam and Regmi (2004) found that
with warming of higher altitudes, it has been predicted that there may be an increased
spread of lower altitude disease vectors such as mosquitoes and consequent spread of
malaria, Kala-azar and Japanese encephalitis in such regions. Following table provides
information on the predicted impacts of climate change in the human health:
Health concerns Vulnerabilities due to climate change
Temperature related Clear heat and cold related illness
morbidity Cardio vascular illness
Vector borne diseases Changed patterns of diseases by region and by climate
parameter
Malaria, filaria, kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue
caused by bacteria, virus, and pathogens like mosquitoes and
ticks
Health effects of extreme Diarrhoea, Cholera and intoxication caused by biological and
weather chemical contaminants in water.
55

56. Damaged public health infrastructure due to cyclones / floods
Injuries and illness
Social and mental health stress due to disasters and
displacement
Health effects due to Malnutrition, hunger, particularly in children
insecurity in food
production
Source: Climate Change Impacts on Human Health in India, National Physical Lab, New Delhi
5.3.1 Impact of climate change on Human Health
The impact of climate change is directly impacted in the human health. Some of the
impacts that experienced by the people in the study area are discussed below.
a. Birth of abnormal children
Drought and erratic rainfall provoked food crises resulting less nutritious food
availability for pregnant women. In other words, malnutrition of pregnant women has
resulted disability with weak eye sight and abnormal health condition of newly born
babies.
Some people opined that with the use of excess pesticide content vegetables and fruits,
the pregnant women are particularly affected and the impacts are reflected in abnormal
birth of children.
b. Explosion of vector borne diseases
As noted earlier, the subtropical and warm temperate regions of Nepal are being
vulnerable to Malaria, Japanese Encephalitis and Kala-azar. Many vector-borne diseases
are known to be sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. The increase of mosquito is
observed especially after 1997 in project areas. People still remembered that before 1993,
there was no need of mosquito nets in any of their communities.
Temperatures between 22 and 32º C are very favorable for Malaria diseases to develop
and complete their cycle, while those above 32-34º C could reduce their survival rates
substantially. Thus the range of temperatures in Nepal is suitable for the Malaria
parasites to exist and develop. Kala-azar (Visceral leishmaniasis) cases have also shown
an increasing trend in the last two decades. This trend has become more pronounced in
the recent years.
As water- and heat-related diseases increase because of climate change, women will
bear the extra burden of increased care giving and increased threats to their own health.
The World Health Organisation states that, “Changes in climate are likely to lengthen the
transmission seasons of important vector-borne diseases, and to alter their geographic range,
potentially bringing them to regions that lack population immunity and/or a strong public
health infrastructure.” Malaria is one example of a vector-borne disease that is likely to
56

57. increase due to climate change, particularly as a result of increased temperatures and
rainfall.
Pregnant women are particularly vulnerable because they attract malaria-carrying
mosquitoes at twice the rate of non-pregnant women. Moreover, pregnancy reduces a
woman’s immunity to malaria, making her more susceptible to infection and increasing
her risk of illness, severe anaemia and sometimes eventual death. Maternal malaria
increases the risk of spontaneous abortion, premature delivery, stillbirth and low birth
weight – a leading cause of child mortality (Mitchell et al., 2007).
In this context, it is unsurprising that besides the material losses, women have to cope
with the psychosocial impacts of the floods. In the research areas in Nepal, Gautam
(2007) observed that people were
Box 15: Explosions of new diseases are as a result of
suffering from anxiety and lack of sleep changing mausam
and generally feeling desperate and In the past, there was no problem of communicable
helpless. Families often had to relocate, diseases even though there were no toilets but now each
house has its own toilet and the practice of open
sometimes permanently, to safer grounds defecation is also reduced. Yet the extent and magnitude
during the flood season. This has created of communicable diseases is more compared to past
a severe impact on social support years. We are surprised on explosion of vector borne
diseases and spread of water borne diseases. Many cases
networks and family ties which help of abnormal children birth are experienced in the village
women to cope better. The evidence from in the recent years. In my view, explosions of new
this research suggests that this is common diseases are as a result of changing mausam.
-Mr Bhoj Raj Pokherel, Simalpani-5, Pawora
across all flood-affected areas. The
psychosocial effects of disasters are of course not limited to women, but in their role of
care-givers, they have the extra burden of looking after their other family members even
when they themselves are in great distress, especially when support groups are not
available.
It was perceived that high humidity creates a favourable environment for the growth of
fungal and bacterial diseases. It was also seen that in hope of better production, women
started to use more chemical fertilizer, and engaged in haphazard use of insecticides
and pesticides without consultation with relevant technicians. The reduction in compost
manure is due to decline in household (HH) labour force in the recent years and its
impact was reduction in number of livestock. This is primarily because of nuclear
family structures, tendency of seasonal labour abroad and because of minimal grazing
area (Gautam et al, 2007).
c. Spread of water borne diseases
It is well-known fact that flooding and inundation contaminate the water sources in
different forms. For instance, when drinking water is mixed with open defecation and
sewerage, it will contaminate drinking water sources and people using the polluted
water suffer from many water-borne diseases.
57

58. In the study area, people experienced growing water-borne diseases like dysentery,
diarrhoea, dengue, fever, common-cold, jaundice, skin disease, eye infections, etc as a
result of flooding and inundation as well as longer droughts. As a result, people opine
that they are exposed to new health
risks. Many water-borne infectious Box 16: Health awareness is only the important
adaptation practice
diseases are known to be sensitive to In my opinion, with the growing number of NGOs and
changes in climatic conditions. These CBOs, people have been enriched with health awareness
diseases also increase because of extra activities with information on symptoms of various
communicable diseases and ways to treat those diseases
demands on diminished water supplies, with community efforts. The improvement of health and
which will in turn increase the risk of sanitation at individual, family and community level has
contaminated supplies reaching the helped us to fight against these diseases. But, interestingly,
we have been facing new diseases. I don't know why these
public. diseases are spreading but these are the challenges for us.
Mr. Keshav Giri, Balapur, Motipur
During longer droughts, people have
reported to suffer from new diseases. People also have experienced that the hair loss
and hair whitening cases are also as a result of changing climate.
5.2.2 Adaptation strategies
a. Conduct awareness program
Local NGOs have been imparting various awareness programs to increase health
awareness especially for communicable diseases. These initiatives are useful to reduce
the impacts of health hazards resulted from climate change.
b. Use of mosquito net and manage clean environment
In the study VDCs of Kapilvastu, in each monsoon, people have been suffering from
Malaria, Kala-azar and Japanese Encephalitis. People from their own initiative tried to
spread DDT to control these diseases. Use of mosquito net, managing clean
environment around the houses are some of the other adaptation practices.
5.4 Water Resources
Nepal is one of the richest countries in water resources. The monsoon contributes
significantly in water regime of the country. As a result, several sources of water in the
form of glaciers, snow pack, groundwater, and river networks exist in Nepal. The
country has about 6000 rivers and streams including 3 major river basins: Sapta Kosi in
the east, Karnali in the west and Sapta Gandaki in the central part the country
(Upadhyay, 2000). The annual run-off from the total drained areas is estimated to be 202
billion m3. The contribution from the Nepalese territory accounts to an annual run-off
of 170 billion m3. About 4063 sq km is estimated to be covered by surface water, of
which 97.3 percent is under the large rivers followed by natural lakes (1.2 %), ponds (1.2
%) and reservoirs (0.3 %) (HMG, 1992). The area under snow and ice is 17,920 km2,
which represents about 13 percent of the country's total area (WECS, 1988).
58

59. Nepal's Tarai belt has rechargeable ground water potential, which occurs in both
artesian and non-artesian aquifers (WECS, 2002). The theoretical potential on the basis
of average flow is estimated to be 83000 MW electricity (Shrestha, 1968), out of which
44,600 MW has been assessed to be technically feasible, while 42,130 MW (50.6 Percent)
could be economically harnessed (Sharma and Adhikari, 1990).
The vast water resource potential of Nepal has considerable importance in the economic
development of the country. However, Nepalese river basins spread over such diverse
and extreme geographical and climatic condition that the potential benefits of water are
accompanied by risks. Besides, climate change could add a new dimension to water
management: the availability of only 26 km 3 water out of total water (202 km3) in dry
season shows that water scarcity is imminent in Nepal unless water resources are
properly managed.
Anticipated changes in hydrological cycle and the depletion of water resources
therefore are some of the top environmental challenges Nepal is going to face due to
Climate Change. The water related problems as such are likely to be more severe in
Asian countries like Nepal where the monsoon, characterized by high precipitation
variability, is the dominating climatic force (Sharma, 1993).
Many studies have opined that the changes in temperature and precipitation alter the
hydrological cycle and water resources. The total water reserve capacity is 200 billion
m3, and runoff provides 72% of water reserve (144 billion m3) while snow provides
12% (24 billion m3). In addition, the mean monthly discharges show that global
warming would shift the peak discharge month from August to July, due to the fact that
the snow cover on mountaintops would melt earlier. This could lead to increased
flooding and more pronounced variations in water availability throughout the year in
the downstream.
In Nepal, glaciers have been retreating rapidly for the past few decades because of
rising temperatures. A UNEP/ICIMOD study in 2001 has identified 3,252 glaciers and
2,323 glacial lakes in Nepal. Among them, 20 lakes are in risk of bursting in five to ten
years time with catastrophic results unless urgent actions are taken.
Climate change impacts on water resources will affect Nepal through a number of
ways, including disasters, irrigation, and domestic water usage. These changes, in turn,
could place additional burdens not only the livelihoods of communities in highland
regions but equally in the middle mountain and the Tarai.
59

60. 5.4.1 Impact of climate change in Water Resources
Water is the largest natural resource of Nepal. The country’s water requirements cover
drinking water and personal Box 17: Water resources are continuously depleting
hygiene, religious activities, We are continuously suffering from drinking water during longer
agriculture, industrial droughts because all the hand pumps are dried out. It also hampered
artesian borings. Due to continuous droughts, level of ground water is
production, hydropower also lowering. Many farmer managed irrigation systems in the hills are
generation, and recreational becoming defunct. Wetlands are also threatened in the Tarai.
activities such as swimming
In the recent years, because of the longer droughts, people are
and fishing,. There is a growing compelled to broadcast maize in Asadh instead of Chaitra end. Now,
pressure on water resources we can not predict for the occurrence of droughts. In the past, if there
due to the growth of the was spider net every where, cloud blowing from west to east, thunder
population, expansion of storm towardsthesesouth, these have now failed. considered for longer
droughts. But
the
predictions
symptoms were
irrigation systems for
increasing agricultural Before 30 years, the amount of rainfall was more so that we could
produce charuwa paddy. Now because of the changing pattern of
production. climate, all of lakes and ponds are becoming dried up. As the forest is
continuously depleting, the amount of rainfall is also decreasing. We
Like other sectors, the changing have estimated that there is only 40% of rainfall as compared to 30
years ago. In the past, rain occurred for full of four months.
patterns of climate in recent -Mr Gunanidhi Bhattrai, Kopuwa
decades have hampered the
water resources sector severely. Some of the pertinent issues shared by the people
during study are presented below.
a. Lowering the level of ground water
The changes in temperature and precipitation are responsible to alter the hydrological
cycle and water resources. Until 1977, the artesian borings were successful even in 110
feet depth but now it needs at least 165 feet to receive good discharge. People felt that
the layer of groundwater was drastically lowering.
With the lowering of the ground water, its direct impact is in the functionality of hand
pumps. About 40% hand pumps are defunct during April-June each year. Only those
hand pumps installed by FINNIDA are functional during longer droughts because of
their greater depth.
Apart from hand pumps, many traditional and religious wells have completely dried
up. Ponds have been unable to hold more water due to over siltation. People opined
that the reduction in number of day rain, and flood induced disasters and erratic
rainfall disturbs natural recharge system. There is poor correlation between discharge
and recharge. With erratic rainfall pattern, people have experienced more discharge and
less recharge. Its impact is seen in the ground water.
60

61. b. Defunct farmer managed irrigation systems
The farmers managed irrigation systems in the Siwalik and even in the Tarai area are
effective means for irrigation. Due to low cost and based on the indigenous technology,
people have been operating these systems since generation. But now, these systems are
perceived to be at risks due to climate change.
Now, these systems have been facing frequent floods and longer droughts. The big
floods have destroyed the physical set-up whereas the longer droughts have reduced
the water discharge in the rivers. As the frequency of droughts is also increasing, more
likely threats in the coming days are expected. The upper watershed of each river is also
depleted in the recent years hence continuously dried many water sources. The poor
recharge is also the reason for dried up water sources.
It is estimated that about 30% FMISs in study area are defunct and its rate is
continuously increasing. Local people attribute to changing climate and associated
causes.
c. Threatening of the wetlands
In the recent decades, due to climate
change, river basins and wetlands are Box 18: Efforts are initiated to protect water
resources
becoming damaged. As a result, they are As the problems are growing up as a result of water
not able to provide water supply of source depletion, we are now involved in the protection
adequate quality and quantity to maintain of watershed to retain the water resources. The idea of
community forest was very successful in this respect.
vital ecosystems. Similarly, many traditional ponds/water bodies are now
being rehabilitated to resume the monsoon water so that
As noted earlier, more discharge and poor it could be used in the winter. New initiatives like
sprinkle irrigation in the hills and drip irrigation in the
recharge is one of the reasons for drying Tarai are initiated to increase irrigation efficiency. We
many wetlands. Its direct impact is in think these are the demands of time.
aquatic life including fisheries. The -Mr Chhabilal Karki, Subarnakhal-1
fishery is one of the vital sources of livelihood of many indigenous caste people and this
is at risks. Many aquatic animals are now endangered affecting the balanced eco-
system.
With the depletion of wetland resources, the social attachments of people for recreation,
religious activities, livelihood, etc. are at risks.
5.4.2 Adaptation strategies
The following are some of the practices that are being adopted by people as part of
adaptation strategies for water resources.
a. Protection of watershed to retain the water resources
Once the watershed resources are depleted by the human activities along with physical
factors, regeneration practices are now being performed. This includes: control of open
61

62. grazing, setting strict rules and regulation, social fencing, provision of kanji house,
communityplantation of fast growing species, etc. Protection of water sources in many
places is resumed in the recent years.
b. Rehabilitation of traditional ponds/water bodies
The traditional ponds are being abandoned in many places. Some ponds are filled by
sitation, others are either encroached or have dried up. But now with the implication
made by the absence of traditional ponds, people are building awareness on the
importance of traditional ponds. Now people in many placed have started to harvest
monsoon rain that later could be used in feeding and swimming for livestock. In some
places of Tarai, pond water is being lifted by pump set for irrigation and used during
out break of fire. The physical set up of ponds are upgraded by raising the bank of
ponds and plantation along the river bank.
c. Promote afforestation and conservation
In Nepal, from 1979-1998, a study showed that the forested area decreased by one third.
Its implication was also shared in the study area. When the Churia hills and the forest
area near the village in Tarai become inhabitant by poor, people have started to protect
them by their own initiatives. The protection of forests was supportive to increase water
availability in dry season. The people of Kapilbastu shared that it has also reduced
landslides and erosion, and enhanced the local biodiversity.
d. Alternative measures to increase irrigation efficiency
Based on the past experiences, people in the study area have started to initiate dip
borings, artesian borings, sprinklers, etc to increase irrigation efficiency. It is said that
sprinkle would increase the efficiency by 50% over surface irrigation, although it
involves greater capital investments and is not suitable for paddy. Installing drip
networks to supply water directly to roots is another measure, but is feasible only for
extremely dry conditions due to the high costs. But the increased efficiency can help to
expand the irrigated area.
5.5 Forest Resources
Studies found that about 350 million of the world’s rural poor and forest-dwelling
indigenous peoples depend on forests for their home, livelihoods, and energy supply.
Forests contain literally millions of types of flora and fauna, as much as 90 per cent of
the world’s land-based species. But industrial logging has resulted in the lands of
indigenous peoples being overrun, forests being destroyed, and cultural traditions
threatened in a continuous manner.
About 80 percent of the population of Nepal depends on the forests for daily fuel wood
supply and 42 percent on the fodder for livestock as these are extracted from the forest
(WECS, 1997). Therefore, forest stands as one of the most important natural resources to
meet the basic needs of firewood, fodder and timber of the people. The land resource
62

63. map of the country has revealed that cultivated land covers about 20 percent of the total
land, forest 29 percent, grassland covers 12 percent, shrub lands 11 percent, and other
categories like rocks, snow lands and settlements make up the rest. Of the total
forestland, 35 percent is in the hills and one-third in the mountain region (UNEP, 2001).
Global Warming may cause forest damage through migration towards the upper
region, changes in their composition, extinction of species etc. Observations and
experiments demonstrate that an increase of just 10o C in global average temperature
would affect the composition and functioning of forests (Trobe, 2002).
Forest constitutes Nepal's largest natural resource in terms of coverage. The annual
deforestation rate on average is estimated to be 1.7 percent with 2.3 percent in the hills
and 1.3 percent in the Tarai (FRIS, 1999). Similarly, the growing stocks of forest have
declined from 522 million m3 in mid- 1980s to 387.5 million m3 in 1999.
Article 2 of the Kyoto Protocol spelled out that industrialised countries shall
“implement and/or further elaborate policies and measures… such as… promotion of
sustainable forest management practices, afforestation and reforestation” in helping to
limit and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.
Now, the degradation of the environment through poor land use and deforestation is a
serious concern. People have clear ideas about implications of these activities through
more floods and droughts but have failed to take more concrete initiatives as there are
few alternatives.
If there is thick forest, the first flood takes good soil with water which is considered
very fertile and the rain is also on time, with reduced droughts. But due to continuous
depletion of forest resources, people have to face more water induced disaster events in
the recent years. Bhandari (2007) opines that over the past decades people have
experienced summer hotter and winter less coldly as compared to previous decades.
People perceive that these adversities have become worse due to deforestation around
the area in the recent past.
5.5.1 Impact of climate change on Forest Resources
Following section deals about the immediate impacts of climate change in forest
resources.
a. Forest resources depletion from unidentified diseases
The forest resources are continuously depleting. For this, both human and physical
environment is responsible. Landless people in many places encroached the forest in
one hand and in the absence of political bodies in the village; illegal timber extractors
destroy the rich resources of forest. The forest during 2036-046BS (…AD) was heavily
cleared.
63

64. In the recent decades, the unidentified diseases and thick fog also hamper the growth of
forest resources. For instance, Sisau, Imili, Epil-epil and Kimbu are badly affected by
diseases. Many hectors of Sisau forest has now completely dried up. The growth rate of
forest resources has declined. The growth rate of sapling is decreasing because of
drought and cold. Due to less rains in the recent years, stem of sal trees is found hollow.
People said that these are due to longer droughts and high temperatures.
b. Depletion of forest resources
The changes in vegetation in upper catchments have created the adverse effects in the
downstream. Vegetation patterns would be altered by changes in temperature and
precipitation, which in turn would affect biodiversity in forests.
Due to more temperature and droughts, the cases of more forest fire are recorded. Fires
destroy the young plants and dried old tress.
The pattern of erratic rain in the recent years invites the water induced disasters like
landslides and soil erosion in the hills and flooding, inundation, river bank erosion,
river cutting, sedimentation, etc in the flat land Tarai. These different forms of disaster
are responsible for the depletion of forest resources in many places.
In the study areas, people reported that there are old trees which are ready to harvest
but there are no young trees to supplement the forest resources. As a result, more
problems will be visualized in the immediate future.
c. More pressure on forest products as fuel energy
Forests are the largest natural resources in terms of area coverage. A majority of the
people in the study area use the products of
forests for firewood, fodder, timber, and Box 19: Forest resource are becoming less
for growing population
medicines though NTFPs. Over grazing practices In the past, there was plenty of Jymir in the
add the pressure on forest resources. forests but it is a kind of tale story for us. This
may be the impact of poor rain and longer
droughts.
Due to water induced disasters, many people in
the hills and people living along the river bank Before 20 years, we used to use NTFP when
in Tarai have became landless. Poor and forest- we were suffering from any diseases but now
the effectiveness of NTFP is also decreasing.
dwelling indigenous peoples depend on forests Now we are compelled to use English
for their home, livelihoods, and energy supply. medicine when we become sick. Forest
resources like Sisau are continuously depleting
from unidentified diseases. With the increase in
Until recently, in Tarai, bullock cart was population, more pressure is on forest
considered one of the indicators of well being. products as fuel energy. If such trends
The collection of firewood, timber, fodder, etc continue, we will not get any forest resource
from the jungle (forest).
using bullock cart is also the reason for more -Ms Mathura Gautam, Motipur-8, Dhodekol
pressure on forest.
64

65. d. Extinct of NTFPs
In the past, forests were very rich along with varieties of NTFPs. Local treatment
system, which was very effective, largely depends upon the NTFPs. Even the cancer
diseases are treated through NTFPs. Now the availability of NTFP is decreasing
continuously.
People in the study area opined that many NTFPs cannot survive in the changing
climatic condition. With the increase of temperature and droughts as well as thick fog in
the winter, many NTFPs have become extinct. The NTFPs have declined with the
depletion of forest resources. Illegal and poor harvesting is another factor for their
extinct.
5.5.2 Adaptation strategies
a. Alternative energy promotion
With the depletion of forest resources in many places, now people have been using
burning of cow dung especially in the Tarai. Alternative energy technologies like bio-
gas, solar home system (SHS), improved cooking stove, micro-hydro, etc are in wide
use. However, the majority of people are at risk as they are too poor to change to a
cleaner fuel, or to have access to modern fuels.
b. Plantation of fast growing trees including bamboo
Promotion of agro-forestry activities in the private land is the recent practice. People
have been selecting fast growing tress that are both feasible for fodder and fire wood.
Epil-epil, kimbu, bamboo, etc are some of the
most popular trees in these days. Box 20: The use of poison and changing
climate threaten the biodiversity
In the recent years, catch fish is done through
c. Practice of community forest poison. There is a rule to penalize the person
Converting government owned forest along the who is involved in fishing by poison (Rs 2000)
village and forest interface is new practice but the people from Kapilvastu used to come
at night for fishing illegally. Despite of several
through community managed forest concept. It efforts, we are unable to control illegal fishing
was possible to conserve, manage and use the by poisoning. Our livestock are compelled to
forest resource without hampering the natural drink poisonous water. So 40-50 goats and
chickens die every year from poisonous water.
forest set-up once the forest is under community It has impacted on aquatic animals.
ownership.
Due to changing climatic conditions, there is
threat to bees and beekeeping business. There
The community forest users groups (CFUGs) are were many birds that are no more seen now.
increasing. It was possible to promote greenery, About 22-24 varieties of birds including Lalsor,
increase ownership, construct fire line, build the Tikiya, Panihaash are in Jagadishpur wetland
but 65% birds have disappeared.
capacity of CFUGs, control slash and burn -Ms Basundhara Karki, Simalpani-5, Pawora
practices/khoriya cultivation, etc after handover
of the management of forest in the hand of
community. Stall feeding, tree and grass fodder production, improvement in the
65

66. livestock breeds and bio-engineering activities are other inputs to conserve the forest
landscape. Gautam (2007a) has found that people in the eastern region of Nepal have
adequate knowledge, skills and information about the bioengineering techniques like
bamboo spur since generation. This is the reason that, for instance in Jhapa, people
advocate to grow kass along the river bank and this initiative is very much successful to
save the rive bank from erosion. In the study area also, community forest is becoming
popular.
5.6 Biodiversity
Rich biodiversity and natural beauty are some of the key factors that are helpful to
attract tourists. In unprotected public areas, habitats have suffered great threat as a
result of loss or alteration, over-extraction, illegal collection of species, poaching or
hunting of wild animals, over-grazing, fire, and commercial trade.
Nepal is also rich in fascinating biological diversity. Nepal occupies only 0.03 percent of
the total surface of the earth (MoPE, 2001) and covers 0.1percent of the world's land
area but has high representation of biotic diversity. It claims 9.3 percent of bird, 4.5
percent of mammal, 2 percent of reptiles, 6 percent of butterfly, 1.0 percent of fish and
over 2.0 percent of the flowering plant species of the world.
This richness of species can be attributed to the immense physical and climatic variation
of the land. The immense bio-climatic diversity in Nepal supports more than 35 forest
types (Stainton, 1972). They are home to 5833 species of flowering plants, including
about 248 species of endemic plant and 700 species of medicinal plants. Nepal's
landmass is also home to 185 species of mammals, 847 species of birds, 645 species of
butterflies, 170 species of fish and other animals (MoPE, 2001).
Forests contain millions of types of flora and fauna. With the depletion of forest
resources, these flora and fauna are at risks. Nepal has a striking variety of species,
including 60 that are currently endangered. One study has inferred that 2.4% of
biodiversity may be lost with climate change (Regmi and Adhikari, 2007).
Majorities of the people rely on forest products such as firewood, food, fodder, timber
and medicines. Its extensive utilization and increasing demand has led to a decline both
in area and quality. Global warming may cause forest damage through mitigation of
forests towards the polar region, change in their composition and extinction of species.
This could affect not only on Nepal’s biodiversity but the livelihoods of people. Tropical
wet forests and warm temperate rain forests would disappear, and cool temperate
vegetation would turn to warm temperate vegetation. Vegetation patterns would be
different under the incremental scenario (at 2ºC rise of temperature and 20 percent rise
of rainfall) than the existing types. Thus, climate change will have a direct impact on
vegetation, biodiversity and even wildlife.
66

67. 5.6.1 Impact of Climate Change in Biodiversity
a. Impact on aquatic animals
The water induced disasters as a result of climate change have hampered the water eco-
system in the river. Due to over sedimentation and siltation, many deep parts of the
rivers in the study area have risen. Deep parts are considered the habitat of aquatic
animals including fishes. The siltation also has hampered the natural food like fungi in
the river. The shortage of food and reduction in water volume in the river in winter, has
kept life of many aquatic animals at risks.
According to the local people in Kapilbastu, the practice of killing fish with the
application of pesticide/poison is another reason for deteriorating the river eco-system.
Its impact is negative health hazards to livestock, birds and human beings. Now, fishes
and other aquatic animals are decreasing.
b. Threatening of bees
The increasing temperature and global warming has posed farmers to use pesticides
and chemical fertilizer in the crops to get more yield to compromise other climatic
requirements. It is considered that the mortality rate of bees and other beneficial insects
is increasing due to excess use of pesticide in mustard and other cereals, pulses and
vegetables. A kind of grass which is grooming fast is responsible to reduce the
production of mustard.
From the study area, it is learnt that the production of honey has now drastically
reduced once farmer have starting using pesticides in their crops. Hence, the reduction
of bees and other beneficial insects have created negative impacts in the local
biodiversity and surroundings.
c. Extinct of birds
People have clearly stated that the types and number of birds at the moment shall not
remain the same if climate change continues. Talchara, birds which used to move in a
group basis are no longer seen in the sky. Before 10 years, groups of these birds in
several days used to migrate from hills to Tarai.
The habitat of the birds is also encroached with the over population. Simal trees are
considered very tall tress in Tarai and these trees were considered the habitat for many
birds. These Simal trees were also in the farm land. Once they stayed in the Simal trees,
many harmful insect and pests are eaten by birds. Hence there was no problem of
diseases in the crops. But tall Simal tresses are no longer available in the Tarai.
Tropical wet forests and warm temperate rain forests have drastically disappeared, and
cool temperate vegetation has turned to warm temperate vegetation. Vegetation
patterns would be different under the incremental scenario than the existing types.
Thus climate change has created direct impact on birds.
67

68. 5.6.1 Adaptations strategies
a. Ban to harvest Simal tree
Seeing the importance of simal tree especially within the crop land, the GoN banned to
cut and harvest it. In the past, the ply and brick factories procured all tall trees.
b. Increase awareness on biodiversity and wetland conservation
Compared to past, there is an increase awareness on the importance of compost manure
and herbicides, bio-pesticides, etc to save beneficial insects like bees. The discussions
were underway to increase the yields without fertilizers and pesticides. Similarly many
NGOs in the recent years are engaged in increasing the awareness and taking some
actions for biodiversity conservation and protection of the value of wetlands.
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69. Chapter 6
Conclusion and Recommendations
From the above discussions and reflections, different conclusions are made and some
recommendations are listed on the changing weather pattern, climate change and their
impacts on agriculture, animal husbandry, human health, forest and water resources as
well as in biodiversity.
6.1 Conclusion
In the recent years, the trends of crop production are in decreasing order except in
maize and paddy. More flowering and poor fruiting in the fruits and vegetables is the
common phenomenon. In order to promote the knowledge and methods which enhance
the resilience of small-farmer agriculture and food production, there is a need of
organizing demonstration, training, and extension services aimed at promoting new
crops and techniques to farmers. Access to credit for tools, loan, seeds, and transport are
equally important sectors to look into. Community based seed bank would be beneficial
with the support from district agriculture development office to enable the farmers of
quality and appropriate variety of seed. Introducing new flood and drought-resistant
crops as an alternative would be important step. More research and innovation on crop
diseases are needed to control the pest and insect in crops wisely without hampering
the beneficial insects in the environment.
Animal husbandry is the second largest means of livelihood of people after agriculture.
This sector is suffering from reduction in grazing land, high mortality of livestock and
poor technical know-how. There is a need of improving the technical knowledge of
farmers on animal husbandry through training, exposure, innovation and development
of the agro-vets at local level. Initiatives for improving agro-forestry in private land are
required to supplement the fodder and grass.
Over use of chemical fertilizer and pesticides in the crops make the grains, fruits and
vegetables more contaminated. The use of these foods makes explosion of many
diseases and their impacts can be felt in the longer term. Similarly, unavailability of
nutritious food and proper sanitation make health situation further vulnerable. The
changing climatic events make the explosion of vector and water borne diseases. Hence
there is a need of both curative and preventive measures to reduce the effects of new
diseases. The improvement in technology and dissemination may be other activities to
intervene in. It is because the current pattern of primary healthcare for large portions of
the population can not contribute to reduce their health vulnerability.
The several evidences and the reflection of local people found that the level of ground
water is deepening. Many farmer managed irrigation systems are continuously
dysfunctional and wetlands are dried up. Due to this, there will be scarcity of drinking
water and irrigation facilities in the future. Water ecosystem is at risk. Hence there is a
69

70. need to conserve upper watershed to resume the water source and control erosion
fertile top soil. In order to increase the irrigation efficiency, sprinklers and drip
networks should be promoted. These initiatives can help to expand the total irrigated
area.
In the recent years, forest resources have depleted from unidentified diseases. Depletion
of forest resources, flora and fauna and NTFPs are due to increasing pressure on forest
resources. It is therefore required to promote afforestation and conservation. Planting
protective forests can increase water availability in dry season, reduce landslides and
erosion, and enhance biodiversity and finally sustain the natural resource base.
Water induced disasters are the by-product of weather variation and changes in climate
conditions. Floods, drought, and landslides can completely disrupt existing
development efforts and further eroding the resilience of communities including the
livelihoods. Heavy rains often trigger devastating landslides and result direct impacts
on downstream communities. Hence, there is a need of comprehensive efforts like
addressing climate-related hazards in all development endeavours, building the strong
social tie-up among the people and orienting the people on community-based disaster
management to reduce vulnerability.
Vulnerability to the hazards of climate change depends on technology, wealth,
education, information, skills, infrastructure, and management capability, etc.
Assessment of vulnerability and addressing of context specific problems is vital for
prioritizing adaptation measures. Building capacity of local communities is a key
approach to cope with unintended effects of climate change. Awareness and knowledge
management is a prerequisite for any effective response aimed at reducing the
vulnerability of climate change. Current trend of climate change and its impacts and
future projections on the change and impacts should be shared with the school
students, teachers, CBO members in wider scale.
Nepal has experienced several barriers in implementing policies related to climate
change. These include the lack of attention at the national policy level and low people's
awareness. The role of District Natural Disaster Relief Committee (DNDRC) is yet to be
fully understood. Policy to action needs participation of and cooperation from different
stakeholders (government policy makers, implementing agencies, development
partners, private sector, and the communities). The related specific recommendations
are made in the succeeding paragraphs.
6.2 Recommendation
Based on the overall context discussed above, the study recommended the following
action that AAN and its PNGOs, NGOs and civil societies, community should carry out
in order to reduce the impacts of climate change and promote the community based
adaptation practices.
70

71. 6.2.1 Community
Based on the overall study findings, the following activities should be carried out in
upper catchments i.e. the study VDCs of Arghakhanchi
• The communities should be mobilized for the protection of watershed to
protect the water resources. The rehabilitation of traditional ponds/water
bodies is another steps to recharge the area.
• There is need to promote afforestation and conservation. Plantation of fast
growing trees including bamboo and ajambari could be initial step through the
promotion of community forestry initiatives. Grazing control is necessary to
control soil erosion in the upper catchments.
• Adoption of renewable energy technologies like bio-gas, solar energy, etc is
needed to reduce the pressure on forest resources. In the same time, improved
cooking stove and bio-briquette should be promoted in large scale.
• The communities should be oriented to form community based disaster
preparedness plans and their proper implementation to reduce the risks of
disaster.
• There is a need to provide especial skills to divert people from subsistence
farming practices to alternative income generation activities.
Similarly, in the downstream VDCs of Kapilvastu, following activities should be
initiated to reduce the impact of climate change.
• In the downstream, communities should be encouraged to make safer homes
and shelter, management of boats, raised roads and tube wells to reduce the
impact of flood.
• The communities should be mobilized to seek alternative irrigation through
treadle pumps and artisan boring. The PNGOs could link the farmers groups
with relevant government agencies for financial and technical support in these
regards.
• The communities should encourage to from self-help groups, initiate saving
and credit and cooperative development for the alternative income generation.
Skill development training on bicycle/motorbike repairing, rings casting for
toilet and other relevant occupation could be other areas to improve their
livelihood.
• Plantation of bamboo and other fast growing trees should be initiated on the
river banks to reduce the river cutting.
• Group farming should be initiated in the river bank by reclaiming the
degraded land along the river bank.
• It is also recommended to initiate off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties to
grow more. In the same time, farmers should be encouraged to change the
crops pattern from cereal to HYV like vegetables and other cash crops.
71

72. • Seeing the negative impacts of chemical fertilizer and pesticides, farmers
should encourage promoting green manure and bio-pesticides, etc through
advocacy and campaigning.
• As there are ample opportunities for raising improved varieties of livestock, the
promotion of dairy cooperative could be one of the income generation activities
for the local people.
6.2.2 PNGOs
The PNGOs of AAN including NDRC should carry out the following activities to
reduce the impact of climate change.
• The PNGOs including NDRC should prepare suitable strategies and approach
for community based adaptation practices to climate change in order build
awareness of people in large scale.
• Farmers should be encouraged to adopt alternative varieties like drought and
flood resistance crops to grow more and to secure food and livelihood in difficult
time with insurance at the time of piloting these actions.
• There is a need to organize sensitization training to school teachers and students,
CFUGs, WUAs, S/C groups, mother on climate change for the advocacy and
campaigns as well as uniform understanding and rational planning.
• There is a need to initiate integrated watershed management programs in upper
catchments.
• There is a need to establish community based early warning system as a part of
preparedness through good communication and forecasting.
• A detail PVA exercise should be carried out to make hazards and vulnerability
mappings so that these maps could be used for monitoring purpose and to assess
the impacts of DRR.
• Knowledge documentation on the impact of climate change, community based
adaptation practices are other areas to look on.
• Community's knowledge based and environmental friendly small scale
mitigation activities could be other activities for DRR.
6.2.3 AAN
The only community level efforts are not sufficient to reduce the impact of climate
change. More policy level advocacy works are needed to strengthen the community
level initiatives. In this regard, AAN should carry out following activities to sustain the
community level initiatives.
• As the climate change adaptation is relatively new areas for PNGOs, there is a
need of advance capacity building initiatives. These could be training, exposures
and cross visits.
• So far, some organizations have just initiated the climate change activities at local
level. There is need to build networks for knowledge sharing and knowledge
management so that other can lean more from each others program.
72

73. • Policy advocacy is most important aspect. Debates and discourses on existing
policies related to land, water, forest, disaster, energy etc and their implication
on climate change is necessary by organizing different meetings and forums.
• There is a need to lead the advocacy for the formulation of policy related to
climate change adaptation. So far, Nepal does not have any specific policies on
climate change. It is therefore, a need of comprehensive, multilateral response to
climate change. The policy on climate change could fill this vacuum.
• AAN need to support in the national adaptation plan of action development.
73

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78. Annex-1: Climatic Assessment of Study Area
Climatic extreme events especially floods and droughts are the concerns of the
study. These extreme events in any region are the results of extreme
meteorological and hydrological conditions of the region. Changes in extreme
weather events and on much other behaviour of living beings and physical
environments are the concerns of understanding of climate change. For the study
of climate change longer period data is required to obtain more confidence on
the result. In Nepal, the services of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
(DHM), which is government authorized agency, started to provide information
in a systematic manner only from 1966? A very less number of stations lie in the
watershed of this study. Three stations were considered in the study to observe
the trend pattern in rainfall and one station for temperature. These stations of
indexes are 0715(Khanchikot Station of height 1760 m amsl) in Arghakhachi
district, 0721 (Patharkot Station of height 200m amsl) and 0716 (Taulihawa
Station of height 90m amsl) in Kapilbastu were chosen in the study. Here, the
station of index 0716 is climatic station and the stations of indexes 0715 and 0721
are the rainfall stations.
In order to make a climatic analysis, data from equal and more than 30 years is
required. In this context, the length of records of rainfall data from all these
stations is comparatively good than the temperature data of station 0716. It
means length of record of temperature from this station is not significant for the
analysis; it is only available for 20 years. However, the trend of temperature
around the region of the basin was received from different literatures in order to
look its variability and trend. The temporal variations of annual rainfall and
seasonal rainfall at each selected stations are plotted and looked separately. The
mean normal rainfall (monsoon rainfall) has been performed for all those
selected stations using office excel .
Summer Rainfall Patterns and its Impacts in the Study Area
Monsoon rainfall from June to September plays significant role in agriculture
and water resources perspectives. Total normal monsoon rainfall (average
monsoon rainfall of about 30 years) in study area is about 1630mm per year.
Monsoon rainfall trend for station 0721(Patharkot) has almost not changed but
trend for station 0715(Khachikot) and for 0716 (Taulihawa) has been extremely
decreasing (Figure 1). In the periods 70s and 80s, the rainfall pattern was almost
above the normal in the study area. During the periods (1970-1990), however,
community felt no scarcity of water for paddy cultivation as they have shared
their experiences during the field visit.
78

79. Monsoon Rainfall Pattern in Study Area
3500
0715 (Kachikot)
0721(Patharkot)
0716(Taulihawa)
3000
Linear ( 0716(Taulihawa))
Linear (0721(Patharkot) )
Linear ( 0715 (Kachikot))
2500
Rainfall in mm
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Years
Figure 1: Monsoon Rainfall in the Selected Stations
On the other hand, frequencies of normal below rainfall were observed more
than normal above in upstream and extreme downstream of the watershed in the
last 15 years( Figure 1). It clears that the lower region of the study area has been
suffered from the adequate water availability. Figure 1 shows that in all three
stations, the impacts of droughts varied in the recent years. The impacts are
observed in groundwater levels, drinking and irrigation water supply. As a
result, reduction of rice production, major crop of summer season, has been
observed in the recent years in the watershed. The historical rainfall data
supports the community experiences that they felt, the extreme 'flood' in
alternate years in the recent decade. It causes loss of paddy production and has
been inadequate for sufficient yield of rice. Regarding the monsoon rainfall trend
nationwide, the monsoon rainfall trend seem to be increasing in the recent years
(DHM, 2007). The reverse trend has been observed in monsoon rainfall at local
level in study area. This phenomenon gives a clear picture that an influence of
local climate is significant.
Winter and Total Rainfall Patterns and its Impacts in the Study Area
The winter monsoon, dominated by western disturbances in the country, from
November to February, is the main source of winter crops production. The wheat
is one of the major crops in the study area during this dry season. Farmers do not
79

80. depend on the river runoff for the irrigation purpose in the dry season, but on
rainwater. The winter-rain in the study area is shown in the figure (Figure…).
The normal rainfall (average of about 30 years) are 108 mm, 63 mm and 58mm
observed for the stations 0715( Kachikot), 0721(Patharkot), and 0716 (Taulihawa)
respectively.
Winter Rainfall Pattern in the Study Area
300
250
200
Rainfall of station 0715(Khanchikot)
Rainfall in mm
150 Rainfall of station 0716(Taulihawa)
Rainfall of Station 0721(Patharkot)
Linear ( Rainfall of station 0716(Taulihawa))
100 Linear (Rainfall of station 0715(Khanchikot))
Linear (Rainfall of Station 0721(Patharkot))
50
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-50
Years
Figure 1: Winter Rainfall in the Selected Stations
The winter rainfall is almost seen to decreasing trend. The frequency of below
normal rainfall in upstream of the watershed is more in the period between 1990s
and 2006 than in the period of 1980s. Similarly, below normal rainfall in
downstream of the watershed has been noticed in the recent years. This
assessment has clarified that the water resources like groundwater and river-
water are becoming limited due to the continued drought in the study area. It is
observed during the field visit that only the few farmers especially in the middle
region of the study area have been able to supply limited water using surface
irrigation in winter season. Due to rapid decline in water sources, drought
impacts have been felt by the community especially in downstream of the
watershed. The declination of winter season crops especially wheat and other
cash crops are the result of the impacts in the study area.
In addition, almost all the annual rainfall trend in the watershed seems to be
nearly decreasing (Figure 3). The annual rainfall trend for the station Taulihawa
and for the Kanchikot are significantly decreasing whereas for the station
80

81. Patharkot it is mildly decreasing. It shows that the downstream of watershed is
significantly driest and upstream of the watershed is also becoming dry.
Mean Annual Total Rainfall in Study Area
4000
3500
3000
2500
Rainfall of station 0721( Patharkot)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall of station 0715( Khanchikot)
Rainfall of station 0716( Taulihawa)
2000
Linear (Rainfall of station 0716( Taulihawa))
Linear (Rainfall of station 0715( Khanchikot))
Linear ( Rainfall of station 0721( Patharkot))
1500
1000
500
0
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
Yeas
Figure 3: Mean Annual Total Rainfall in the Selected Stations
Temperature Pattern and its Impacts in the Study Area
The climatic station of 0716(Taulihawa) represents the temperature scenario in
the downstream of the watershed. The temperature data for this station during
1989 -2006 was reviewed. As per the data records obtained from the DHM, the
maximum temperature for this station has been reviewed. The annual maximum
temperature seems to be significantly decreasing for this station (Figure 4). The
down stream of the watershed has experienced a short term decreasing trend of
temperature from the records of year 1987 to the end of 1990s and it has again
been significantly decreasing after 2000.
81

82. Annual Maximum Temperature at station Taulihawae
33
32
31
Temperature in
degree Celsius
30
29
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Years
Figure 4: Annual Maximum Temperature for the Station Taulihawa
The average annual maximum temperature for Taulihawa station is 31 0C. It is
observed that the mean annual temperature in the region is decreasing by 0.040C
for the last 30 years (ICIMOD, 2001). It implies that days have been cooled. It
supports on the experiences felt by community that the intensity of the coldness
has increased in the plain region of the study area. People have now adopted
their own practices in germination of the seed. For example, farmers are
germinating seed in sac and maintaining its temperature and water manually.
People are loosing the mustard production in the recent years and potato
production has also been affected. People also have observed the diseases like
Charchare Bhyaguto Rog affecting livestock in terai region of the study area. These
changes in crop production and diseases may be the results of changes in
climate. But, further detail study in analyzing the causes of these changes is
required.
82