Otago Energy Research Centre (OERC) Seminar 5th July 2018 Dr Ian Mason Co-Director MEngSt(Renewable Energy) Programme Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury “A Smart Energy System for New Zealand” This seminar will explore the potential for a fully integrated, 100% renewable, energy system for New Zealand. The roles of electricity, heat and fuels, and the prospects for interactions between these energy carriers, will be outlined. Engineering, social and political challenges will be discussed.

1. A SMART ENERGY SYSTEM
FOR NEW ZEALAND
Ian Mason
Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury,
Christchurch, New Zealand.

2. ABSTRACT
• This seminar will explore the potential for a
fully integrated 100% renewable energy
system for New Zealand.
• The roles of electricity, heat and fuels, and
the prospects for interactions between these
energy carriers, will be outlined.
• Engineering, social and political challenges
will be discussed.

3. KEY CONCEPTS
• The ‘three energy carriers’…Electricity;
Heat; Fuels (liquid, solid, gaseous)
• The ‘three no-regrets’…Energy efficiency;
More renewables; Energy infrastructure
• The ‘three tenors’…Ooops!
• Energy storage
• Energy spillage
• Energetics

4. ENERGY CARRIERS
Resource/technology
• Solar/thermal
• Solar/PV & CST
• Wind/turbine
• Hydro/turbine
• Biomass/various
• Wave & tidal/turbine
• Geothermal/turbine
Energy carrier
• Heat
• Electricity
• Electricity
• Electricity
• Electricity
• Heat (hot gases)
• Liquid & gaseous fuels
• Electricity
• Electricity & heat

5. ENERGY RETURNED ON
ENERGY INVESTED
• General trend…
• Hydro >wind >some biomass >geothermal
>PV >other biomass

6. • “A Smart Energy System is a design in which
smart Electricity, Thermal and Gas Grids are
combined and coordinated to exploit
synergies to achieve an optimal solution for
each individual sector as well as for the
overall energy system.”
SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS

7. DANISH VISION
Source: Klimakommissionen (2010)

8. EXAMPLE SYSTEM
Source: Mathiesen et.al. (2015)

9. GRIDS & STORAGE
Source: Mathiesen et.al. (2015)

10. DENMARK 2050Source: Mathiesen et.al. (2015)

11. PROSPECTS FOR NZ
Advantages
• Superior wind and solar
resources
• More temperate climate
• Larger area: 268,000 km2
v 43,094 km2
• Smaller population: 4.7
million vs 5.7 million
Disadvantages
• No inter-national
electricity links
• No district heating
• No gas grid in SI
• Distant from markets
• Expertise on which to
build?

12. NEW POLICY DIRECTIONS
• Labour/NZ First coalition government with Green
Party support (October, 2017). Agreement includes:
• “Introduce a Zero Carbon Act and establish an
independent Climate Commission”
• “Request the Climate Commission to plan the
transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2035
(which includes geothermal) in a normal hydrological
year.”
• “Stimulate up to $1 billion of new investment in low
carbon industries by 2020”

13. PRIMARY & DELIVERED
ENERGY
Source: MBIE (2017)
Fossil Fuels: 60%
Renewables: 40%

14. ELECTRICITY
Source: MBIE (2017)
Fossil Fuels: 15%
Renewables: 85%

15. 100% RENEWABLE
ELECTRICITY FOR NZ?
• Study period: 6 y (2005-2010)
• Resolution: 30 min
• All fossil-fuelled generation removed
• Replaced with wind + geothermal

16. “WILLING SUSPENSION OF
DISBELIEF!”
• Centrally planned and
operated system
• Single goal: optimal use
of energy resources =>
minimisation of spillage
• Hydro operation
allowed to vary
• Hydro lake system
treated as single
reservoir
• Backcasting

17. ELECTRICITY MIX

18. GENERATION PATTERNS
HISTORIC (30-min) 100% Renewable (30-min)

19. SUPPLY-DEMAND
30-min resolution

20. PEAKING OPTIONS
Source: Mason et.al., 2013
• Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (368
GWh,1550 MW); DSM; gas turbines

21. SECURITY OF SUPPLY &
SPILL CONTROL
Lake levels Deficits and surpluses

22. OPTIMISING STORAGE
Storage vs penetration Example storage profile
Over-specifying generation
reduces storage but creates spill

23. SYSTEM EVALUATION
• PV-battery system, EROEI basis, 2.5 x
required annual generation

25. OPTIONS FOR SPILL
• Hydrogen=>electricity via fuel cell
• Hydrogen=>electro-fuels
• Hydrogen=>heat (via gas grid)
• Thermal storage via heat pumps
• Thermal storage e.g. water
• Curtailment

26. 100% RENEWABLE
ENERGY FOR NZ?
• Study period: 2014
• Scope: stationary energy & transport
• Context: Paris Target 2030

27. Required GHG Removal
GREEN Grid 27
1990 2005 2030
65.8 MT
83.7 MT
81.7 MT
88.9 MT
58.6 MT
BAU gross**Gross CO2-e
emissions
**From: Modelling the economic impact of New Zealand’s post-2020 climate change contribution, Adam Daigneault,
Landcare Research, prepared for Ministry for Primary Industries & Ministry for the Environment , May 2015
30% below 2005*11% below 1990
2021
*New Zealand Submission under the Paris Agreement:
New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contribution (2021-2030)
Removal
30.3 MT
(88.9 – 58.6)

28. Renewable Electricity
Electric Power Engineering Centre 28
Short- Medium
Term Scenario.
Includes: Heat
Pumps < 100 oC
Excludes:
Aviation, Shipping,
Heavy Vehicles
Delivered Energy
Reduction (ex T&D)
54%
Emissions
Reduction
25.4 Mt

29. Bioenergy
• All process heat, water heating and space heating
requirements using wood chips:
• Delivered energy 39,173 GWh/y
• Annual harvesting of 18,550 ha (P. Radiata); allocation of 31%
of NZ’s plantation forestry
Electric Power Engineering Centre 29

30. Discussion
• Additional renewable electricity: 41,620 GWh/y
• “In the pipeline” => 15,000 GWh/y
• Difference: 26,620 GWh/y; 5.5 – 7.6 GW of wind
(offshore/onshore)
• Build rate: 550-760 MW/y over next decade!
Electric Power Engineering Centre 30

31. ENGINEERING
CHALLENGES
• Massive electrification (2-3 x 2014)
• High wind penetration; offshore wind
• Inertia, spill (projects in progress)
• Energy conversion improvements
• Storage; bioenergy; build rate (2050)
GWh

32. SOCIAL SCIENCE
CHALLENGES
• Scenario reframing…
• More turbines/pylons on land/seascape
• View with or without these, OR
• View with structures VS view with
landslides, flooding and/or collapsed
electrical infrastructure?

33. MORE SOCIAL SCIENCE
CHALLENGES
• Interventions: e.g. social comparisons
• Economic paradigms & narratives;
Ecological, Steady State, ‘Doughnut’
models; GDP growth, “externalities”

34. AN APPROPRIATE PARADIGM
Adapted from: Raworth, 2017
Geothermal
energy
Gravitational
energy (tidal)
Insulating blanket:
CO2 & other GHGs

35. AN INAPPROPRIATE
PARADIGM

36. POLICY CHALLENGES
• Integrated energy policy
• Electricity governance (EA): fit for high
renewables penetration, storage, spill?
• Energy + Storage market ?
• Seriously critique neo-classical
economic model - is it fit-for-purpose in
a climate-constrained world?

37. WHAT NOW?
• Model NZ 2050 Smart Energy System
at hourly or better resolution
• Reframe social science investigations
• Develop appropriate policies
• Continue the conversation!

38. • Arthur Williamson, Shannon Page, Allan
Miller
• Students in the Renewable Energy Masters
programme and the ‘Sustainable Energy
Systems’ course at UC
• Michael Jack and OERC
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

39. THANKS FOR LISTENING
Any questions
ian.mason@canterbury.ac.nz

40. REFERENCES
• Klimakommissionen. 2010. Green energy-the road to a Danish energy system without fossil fuels.
Klimakommissionen - Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy, Copenhagen, Denmark, 28
September, 2010
• Mason, I.G., Page, S.C., Williamson, A.G., 2010. A 100% renewable electricity generation system
for New Zealand utilising hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass resources. Energy Policy 38,
3973-3984.
• Mason, I.G., Page, S.C., Williamson, A.G., 2010. Could New Zealand have a 100% renewable
electricity system?, Proceedings of the Electricity Engineers Conference and Exhibition, 17-18
June, 2010, Christchurch, New Zealand.
• Mason, I.G., Page, S.C., Williamson, A.G., 2010. Transitioning to a 100% renewable electricity
generation system: balancing the roles of wind generation, base-load generation and hydro
storage, Proceedings of the NZ Society for Sustainability Science and Engineering Conference
"Transitions to Sustainability"; 30 November - 3 December, 2010, Auckland, New Zealand.
• Mason, I.G., Page, S.C. and Williamson, A.G., 2013. Security of supply, energy spillage control
and peaking options within a 100% renewable electricity generation system for New Zealand.
Energy Policy 60 (1), 324-333.
• Mason, I.G., Miller, A.J.V., 2016. Energetic and economic optimisation of islanded household-
scale photovoltaic-plus-battery systems. Renewable Energy 96, 559-573.
• Mason, I.G., Wright, E.K., Wratt, J.R.S., 2017. An evaluation of electrolytic hydrogen as an
aviation fuel for New Zealand, Proceedings of the EEA Conference and Exhibition, 21-23 June
2017, Wellington, NZ.

41. REFERENCES
• Mason, I.G., Gates, H., Chua, H., Miller, A., 2017. Transitioning New Zealand to Renewable
Energy. , Proceedings of the EEA Conference and Exhibition, 21-23 June 2017, Wellington, NZ.
• Mathiesen, B.V., Lund, H., Connolly, D., Wenzel, H., Ostergaard, P.A., Moller, B., Nielsen, S.,
Ridjan, I., Karnoe, P., Sperling, K., Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. Smart Energy Systems for coherent
100% renewable energy and transport solutions. Applied Energy 145, 139-154.
• MBIE, 2017. Energy in New Zealand, NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment,
Wellington, New Zealand.
• Raworth, K., 2017. Doughnut Economics: seven ways to think like a 21st century economist.
Chelsea Green Publishing, White River Junction, Vermont, USA.
• Schipper, J., Wood, A., Edwards, C., Miller, A., 2017. Impacts of renewable generation on
frequency quality, Green Grid Conference 2017. Electric Power Engineering Centre, University of
Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
• Schipper, J., Wood, A., Edwards, C., Miller, A., 2018. Recommendation for Ancillary Service
Markets under High Penetrations of Wind Generation in New Zealand. Electric Power Engineering
Centre, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand., Unpublished report.
• Schwartfeger, L., Wood, A., Bickers, G., 2018. Energy and Capacity Requirements for a 90%
renewable system in New Zealand, Proceedings of the EEA Conference and Exhibition, 20-22
June 2018, Wellington, NZ.