This document summarizes Pakistan's energy situation and low carbon development potential. It finds that Pakistan heavily relies on natural gas and imported oil to meet its energy needs, and has a large demand-supply gap. While Pakistan has huge potential for low carbon energy like solar, wind, and hydropower, current plans still focus mainly on high carbon resources. The document examines case studies of domestic biogas plants, micro-hydropower projects, and a grid-connected hydropower plant, finding benefits like rural electrification, economic opportunities, and reduced emissions. It concludes that Pakistan needs a policy shift to emphasize and develop indigenous low carbon energy technologies.

1. Low Carbon Development
Case Studies: PAKISTAN
Dr Muhammad Tousif Bhatti

3. Country Context
 Geographical area : 796,096 km2
 GDP: 4 per cent (2012)
 Estimated per capita GDP is around US$2,891.
 About two-thirds of the population lives in rural areas.
 Urban population contributes to about three-quarters of GDP and almost all of
the government’s revenue.
 Agriculture is central to economic growth and development
– 24 per cent of GDP
– half the employed labour force
– largest source of foreign exchange
– feeds the entire population.
 Facing an acute energy crisis
 energy shortages have cost the country up to 4 per cent of GDP over the past
few years.

4. Energy Situation:
Commercial Sources

5. Energy Situation:
Traditional Sources
• Traditional fuels like firewood, dung and crop residues currently
contribute a major share of the everyday energy requirements of rural
and low-income urban households.
• In rural areas, food is cooked in a traditional cooking stove and
biomass fuels are mainly used because of the unavailability of natural
gas .
Cooking fuel used in Pakistan.
Cooking fuel Urban areas (%) Rural areas (%)
Wood 19.55 68.71
Oil/natural gas 77.84 7.41
Electricity 0.05 0.07
Other* 2.56 23.81
Source: Bhutto et al, 2011
*Other consists of dung cake and any other material used as fuel for cooking other than electricity, gas,
oil, wood and charcoal

6. Energy Situation:
Renewable Sources
Achievements in renewable energy during 2011-12
Technology Units
installed
Capacity Houses electrified/
benefited
Micro hydropower (canal fall type) 12 290 kW 2,500
PAT (pump as turbine) micro
hydropower plant
01 220 kW Commercial
Solar module 01 15 kW 150
Solar power backup system 01 03 kW Backup for lighting and fans
Biogas 38 190 m3 38
Solar thermal
Water heater 30 Standard1 30
Solar cooker box type 15 Standard1 15
Solar concentrator/dryer 22 Standard 22
Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, 2013

7. Where we are?
Electricity access in 2011 – regional aggregates
Region Population without
electricity (millions)
Electrification
rate (%)
Urban
electrification
rate (%)
Rural
electrificati
on rate (%)
Developing countries 1,257 76.5 90.6 65.1
Africa 600 43 65 28
Developing Asia 615 83 95 75
India 306 75 94 67
China 3 99.8 100.0 99.6
Southeast Asia 134 77.6 90.5 67.2
Rest of developing Asia 172 61.4 81.9 51.7
Bangladesh 61 60 90 48
North Korea 18 26 36 11
Mongolia 0 88 98 67
Nepal 7 76 97 72
Pakistan 56 69 88 57
Sri Lanka 3 85 96 84
Latin America 24 95 99 81
Middle East 19 91 99 76
Transition economies and
OECD
1 99.9 100.0 99.7
World 1,258 81.9 93.7 69.0
Source: International Energy Agency, 2013

8. Where we are?
People relying on traditional use of biomass for cooking, 2011
Region Population relying on
traditional use of
biomass (millions)
Percentage of population
relying on traditional use of
biomass
Developing
countries
2,642 49.4
Africa 696 67
Sub-Saharan
695 79
Africa
Nigeria 122 75
South Africa 6 13
North Africa 1 1
Developing Asia 1,869 51
India 818 66
Pakistan 112 63
Indonesia 103 42
China 446 33
Latin America 68 15
Brazil 12 6
Middle East 9 4
World 2,642 38.1
Source: International Energy Agency, 2013

9. Energy Efficiency
499
614
482
205
2,813
2,029
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
China
Iran
Bangladesh
Srilanka
India
Pakistan
Energy use in kg of oil equivalent per capita (2011)
• Energy efficiency is a
measurable quantity. It is the
ratio of energy input into a
process to energy or work
(electricity, heat, transportation)
produced by that process.
• Pakistan is ranked 37th in the
world in terms of power
consumption in MWh per year
• Pakistan is ranked 45 among
the UN member countries for
energy efficiency.
• Pakistan’s energy efficiency in
2010 was 203.3 kgoe per
$1,000 GDP
• China (264.97), Iran (278.22),
Nepal (316), India (184.05),
Bangladesh (140.32) and Sri
Lanka (103.87).
Figure 8. Energy efficiency in Pakistan compared with selected countries

10. Energy demand projections by fuel in Pakistan’s energy
2010 2015 2030
Mtoe Share (%) Mtoe Share (%) Mtoe Share (%)
Oil 20.69 26.1 32.15 26.8 66.84 18.5
Natural gas 39.99 50.4 52.98 44.1 162.58 45
Coal 7.16 9.0 14.45 12.0 68.65 19
Hydro 11.03 13.9 16.40 13.7 38.93 10.8
Renewable 0.84 1.1 1.60 1.3 9.2 2.5
Nuclear 0.69 0.9 2.23 1.9 15.11 4.2
Total 79.40 100 120.1 100 361.31 100
Source: Ministry of Planning Development and Reforms, Government of Pakistan

11. Projected energy requirement and
energy deficit (2010-2030)
Energy source (Mtoe) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Oil 4 3 1 1 1
Gas 40 36 25 19 20
LPG 1 1 1 1 1
Coal 2 3 4 6 8
Hydel 7 8 15 17 24
Renewable and nuclear 1 1 5 8 14
Total indigenous supply 55 52 51 52 68
Total energy requirements 73 96 131 176 238
Energy deficit 18 44 80 124 170
Imports for the deficit
Oil 14 29 46 64 85
LNG or gas – 4 18 34 48
LPG – 1 2 3 4
Coal 4 10 14 23 33
Source: Hagler Bailley Pakistan, 2008

12. Low Carbon Energy: Potential vs Planning
Estimated electricity capacity from renewable energy sources 2010-2050 (GW)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wind (grid connected) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8
Solar PV (decentralised) 9.9 14.1 19.1 24.5 29.9
Solar PV (centralised) 116.2 116.2 116.2 116.2 116.2
Solar thermal (centralised) 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6
Biomass (field residues) 1.7 2 2.5 3 3.7
Biomass (animal waste) 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.1
Biomass (municipal solid waste) 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9
Small hydro 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Total 167.7 173 179.3 186.1 193.9
Source: Farooq and Kumar, 2013
Plan for promotion of renewable energy in Pakistan’s power sector
Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Wind 100 800 2,000 3,500 6,000
Solar 1 100 500 1,000 1,500
Biomass 60 300 500 750 1,000
Small
1 150 500 800 1,200
hydro
Total 162 MW 1,350 MW 3,500 MW 6,050 MW 9,700 MW
Source: National Electric Power Regulatory Authority
Note: The hydropower potential is 59 GW out of which 11 percent is tapped, 14 % is under construction

13. Inferences
 No state wise estimates available for contribution of non-commercial
sources of energy
 The share of on-grid renewable energy sources (solar, wind, biogas) is nill
at the moment.
 Off-grid reliance on solar energy is trending but technologies are imported
and costly.
 The country is heavily depending on high carbon energy sources (natural gas
and imported oil) to meet its energy requirements
 The demand-supply gap is large; national plans are still focusing on high
carbon resources
 Huge potential of low carbon energy is identified in the country
 The national policy to promote renewable energy has not been very
ambicious.
 A policy shift is needed to emphasize on low carbon energy sources by
removing barriers
 Solutions lie in developing of indigenous technologies (on-grid and off-grid)
through research and developments and upscaling them

14. Case Studies-
Domestic Biogas Plants (household scale)
 This case study is based on improving the quality of life
of rural farmers, particularly women, and through
constructing domestic biogas plants at the household
level to fulfil the energy demand by reducing the use of
subsidised fossil fuels for cooking.
 The project was initiated by the Pakistan Biogas
Development programme with financial support provided
by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands (EKN).
 The project aims to facilitate the construction of
domestic biogas plants at the household level by setting
up 14,000 biogas plants in Punjab, out of which 3,500
biogas plants have been installed (Zaidi, 2010).

15. Potential benefits of domestic biogas plants in Pakistan
Benefit type Potential benefits
Environmental  Reduced deforestation and desertification
 Controlled GHG emission from livestock and organic waste
disposal
 Recycled nutrients and restored soil fertility.
Social  Direct impact through reduced drudgery (time collecting
firewood, for example), especially for girls, as well as access
to brighter light.
 Reduced indoor air pollution.
Economic  By allowing the alternative allocation of time, in particular
for female members of the household due to the reduction in
burden of collecting firewood.
 By providing employment and increasing agriculture yield,
improving sanitation and integrated animal husbandry
practices.
Health  Improvement in health (eg, respiratory and eye diseases,
accidental burns) by eliminating indoor pollution and fires.

16. Case Studies-
Micro hydropower/agro-processing mills (Community and SME scale)
 PCRET is playing a major role in promoting renewable energy in
Pakistan, especially in development of micro hydropower
projects, aiming to electrify remote hilly areas.
 Recent example is actuation and installation of 476 micro
hydropower plants ranging from 5-50 KW capacity in the northern
areas of Pakistan.
 This decentralised energy generation has electrified around
56,000 households.
 The science is harnessing the flows of natural waterfalls for power
production.
 The technology used is cross flow (Banki type) turbine, which is a
radial flow impulse turbine, was used.
 The micro hydel turbines were made by local manufacturers and
all other equipment was manufactured locally or by the PCRET.

17. Potential benefits of micro hydropower Pakistan
 The project aims is to reach a total 250,000 rural houses without
break of supply.
 Helps in economic development of rural areas by providing job
opportunities to more than 1,000 local inhabitants.
 Hydro is the cheapest among all energy sources, having production
costs of PKR 5.0 per kWh of electricity.
 Enhance the local manufacturing industry.
 Promote small-scale industrial activities in rural areas.
 The micro hydropower projects are environmental friendly and have
no adverse environmental impact such as displacing people, wasting
land, waterlogging, deforestation or emission of toxic gases.
 Macro level runoff river hydropower projects have very negligible
resettlement, land acquisition and environmental impacts.

18. Case Studies
Macro – grid-connected hydropower
 The 84 MW New Bong Escape Hydropower Project is located in Azad Jammu
and Kashmir, Pakistan.
 This is a run-of-the-river hydropower project and commenced commercial
operation on 23 March 2013.
Potential benefits
 Promote sustainable economic growth
 Encouraged economic growth by reducing the level of very costly electricity and
compensating incremental demand for power
 Increased energy security
 Significant environmental benefits compared to alternative thermal power options in
terms of GHG emissions (estimated reduction of GHG emissions is 218,000 ton CO2
equivalent per year).
 Produced about 300 to 500 job opportunities during the construction phase and around 90
job opportunities after operation.
 Reduced reliance on imported fuel oil, thereby not impacting the country’s trade and
current account deficits.

19. Thank you
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