Prof Henrik Lund, Aalborg University @ SDEWES in Dubrovnik October 2019 See the entire Keynote on Youtube: http://bit.ly/2B6Z06g

1. 100% Renewable Smart
Energy Systems
Henrik Lund
Professor in Energy Planning
Aalborg Universitet
The 16th International Symposium on
District Heating and Cooling
9-12 September 2018 in Hamburg, Germany

2. Aalborg University, Denmark
Jutland/Denmark:
• > 40% wind power (local owners)
• High share of the world’s offshore power
• 30% Distributed Generation
• 50% of electricity supplied by CHP
• >50% District Heating
• 10% of Natural Gas produced from Biogas

3. Renewable Energy Systems
A Smart Energy Systems Approach to the
Choice and Modeling of 100% Renewable Solutions
1. Edition in 2010
2. Edition in 2014
New Chapter on
Smart Energy
Systems and
Infrastructures

4. The long-term Objective of
Danish Energy Policy
Expressed by former Prime
Minister Anders Fogh
Rasmussen in his opening
speech to the Parliament in
2006 and in several political
agreements since then:
To convert to 100%
Renewable Energy
Prime minister 16 November 2008:
”We will free Denmark totally from
fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas”
Prime minister June 2019:
”… 70% reductions in Green
House gases by 2030..”
Prime minister 16 November 2008:
”… position Denmark in the
heart of green growth”

5. 2019 New Government and agreement:
70% reductions in
Greenhouse gases by 2030
Climate Law and Action plan:
1. Energy savings in among others public buildings
2. National Strategy for Sustainable buildings
3. Strategy for electrification of transport, industry
and society in general
4. More funds for green research and
demonstration projects
5. Assessment of Danish and North Sea countries
mutual expansion of offshore wind
6. Investigation of energy island of 10 GW wind
before 2030
7. Support afforestation (new forest)
8. Climate adoption via coordination of coastal
protection

6. 100% Renewable Energy 2050
…… but how…???!!

7. Energi System Analyse Model
CHP
Boiler
Electro-
lyser
Heat
pump and
electric
boiler
PP
RES
electricity
Fuel
RES heat
Hydro water
Hydro
storage
Hydro
power plant
H2 storage
Electricity
storage
system
Import/
Export
fixed and
variable
Electricity
demand
Cooling
device
Cooling
demand
Transport
demand
Process
heat
demand
Industry
Cars
Heat
storage
Heat
demand
www.EnergyPLAN.eu

9. Smart Energy Systems

10. Smart Energy Systems:
Hourly modelling of all smart
grids to identify synergies!
… and influence of different
types of energy storage..!

11. Smart Energy Systems
www.energyplan.eu/smartenergysystems/

12. Smart Grid (2005)
No definition.
However it can be understood
from the context that a smart grid
is a power network using modern
computer and communication
technology to achieve a network
which can better deal with
potential failures.

13. Smart Grid - definitions
“A smart grid is an electricity grid that uses information and communications
technology to gather and act on information, such as information about the
behaviors of suppliers and consumers, in an automated fashion to improve the
efficiency, reliability, economics, and sustainability of the production and
distribution of electricity.” (U.S. Department of Energy)
“Smart Grids … concerns an electricity network that can intelligently integrate
the actions of all users connected to it - generators, consumers and those that
do both - in order to efficiently deliver sustainable, economic and secure
electricity supplies.” (SmartGrids European Technology Platform, 2006).
“A Smart Grid is an electricity network that can cost efficiently integrate the
behaviour and actions of all users connected to it – generators, consumers and
those that do both – in order to ensure economically efficient, sustainable
power system with low losses and high levels of quality and security of supply
and safety.” (European Commission, 2011)
“Smart grids are networks that monitor and manage the transport of electricity
from all generation sources to meet the varying electricity demands of end
users” …. “The widespread deployment of smart grids is crucial to achieving a
more secure and sustainable energy future.” (International Energy Agency
2013).

14. Smart heating and
cooling grids - 2010
• In the European Commission’s strategy
[7] for a competitive, sustainable and
secure “Energy 2020“, the need for “high
efficiency cogeneration, district heating
and cooling” is highlighted (page 8). The
paper launches projects to promote,
among others, “smart electricity grids”
along with “smart heating and cooling
grids” (page 16).

15. Smart Energy Systems
• Smart Electricity Grids are electricity infrastructures that can intelligently
integrate the actions of all users connected to it - generators, consumers and
those that do both - in order to efficiently deliver sustainable, economic and
secure electricity supplies.
• Smart Thermal Grids are a network of pipes connecting the buildings in a
neighbourhood, town centre or whole city, so that they can be served from
centralised plants as well as from a number of distributed heating or cooling
production units including individual contributions from the connected buildings.
• Smart Gas Grids are gas infrastructures that can intelligently integrate the
actions of all users connected to it - supplies, consumers and those that do both
- in order to efficiently deliver sustainable, economic and secure gas supplies
and storage.
Smart Energy System is defined as an approach in which smart
Electricity, Thermal and Gas Grids are combined and coordinated to
identify synergies between them in order to achieve an optimal solution
for each individual sector as well as for the overall energy system.

16. From electricity smart grids to smart
energy systems published 2012
Smart Energy Systems and
Infrastructures published 2014
Smart Energy and Smart
Energy Systems published 2017

17. Energy Storage
Pump Hydro Storage
175 €/kWh
(Source: Electricity Energy Storage
Technology Options: A White Paper
Primer on Applications, Costs, and
Benefits. Electric Power Research
Institute, 2010)
Natural Gas Underground Storage
0.05 €/kWh
(Source: Current State Of and Issues
Concerning Underground Natural Gas
Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, 2004)
Oil Tank
0.02 €/kWh
(Source: Dahl KH, Oil
tanking Copenhagen A/S,
2013: Oil Storage Tank.
2013)
Thermal Storage
1-4 €/kWh
(Source: Danish Technology
Catalogue, 2012)

18. www.journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm

19. Existing distribution grids in DK

20. IDA Energiplan 2030

21. 100% Renewable Energy in
2050
Primær energiforsyning 100% VE i år 2050, PJ
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Ref 2030 IDA 2030 IDA 2050 Bio IDA 2050 Vind IDA 2050
Eksport
VE-el
Solvarme
Biomasse
Naturgas
Olie
Kul
Biomass potentials and consumtion in IDA 2030, PJ
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
DEA potential IDA 2030 Max potential
Waste
Energy crops
Slurry fibre fraction
Slurry biogas
Wood
Straw

22. CEESA Project 2011/2012
Transport:
Electric vehicles is best from an energy
efficient point of view. But gas and/or liquid
fuels is needed to transform to 100%.
Biomass:
.. is a limited resource and can not satisfy
all the transportation needs.
Consequence
… Electricity from Wind (and similar
resources) needs to be converted to gas and
liquied fuels in the long-term perspective…

24. Electricity
(111 PJ)
Conversion Process││ │ │Transport Fuel
Electric Grid1
Electricity
(100 PJ)
│Transport Demand
294 Gpkm
323 Gtkm
OR
Resource
Resource
Electricity
(111 PJ)
Conversion Process││ │ │
Electricity
(100 PJ)
│ Transport Demand
313 Gpkm
Freight is not
applicable
Transport Fuel
ORElectric Grid1
Electrolyser1
Biomass
[Cellulose]
(65 PJ)
Electricity
(83.5 PJ)
Methane
(100 PJ2
)
H2
(60.5 PJ)
Steam
Gasifier
Chemical
Synthesis
Hydrogenation
1.9 Mt
Syngas
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
61 Gpkm
36 Gtkm
Transport Fuel
OR
H2
O
(2.6 Mt)
4.5Mt
Marginal Heat
3
(7.6 PJ)
Power Plant
6 PJ
3
0.6 PJ
83 PJ
59 PJ
Electrolyser1
Biomass
[Glucose]
(60 PJ)
Electricity
(83 PJ)
Methane
(100 PJ2
)
H2
(60.5 PJ)
Anaerobic
Digester
Chemical
Synthesis
CO2
Hydrogenation
4.5 Mt
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
61 Gpkm
36 Gtkm
Transport Fuel
OR
H2
O
(2.3 Mt)
Biogas
(50 GJ)
2.3 Mt
OR
Biomass1
(77 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(100 PJ5
)
Electricity
(178 PJ)
CO2
(7 Mt)
Co-electrolysis4
Carbon
Sequestration &
Recycling3Electricity2
(7.3 PJ)
Chemical
Synthesis
Syngas
(139 PJ)
H2
O
(5.7 Mt)
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
or
50 Gtkm
83 Gpkm
Transport Fuel
Electricity
HeatPower Plant
Electrolyser6
Chemical
Synthesis
Fermenter
Hydrogenation
Chemical
Synthesis
Electricity
(307 PJ)
H2
(149.4 PJ)
Straw
(401.7 PJ)
H2
(72.2 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(62.6 PJ2
)
Ethanol
(100 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(337.5 PJ2
)
CO2
(4.4 Mt)
H2O
(15.5 Mt)
Hydrogenation
Low & High
Temperature
Gasification7
Resource Conversion Process││ │ │Transport Fuel
OR
Transport Demand │
52 Gpkm
67 Gpkm
31 Gtkm
39 Gtkm4
279 Gpkm
169 Gtkm
OR
OR
Lignin (197.7 PJ)
C5 Sugars (92.8 PJ)
Biomass
(40.2 PJ)
Power Plant
115
Mt
1 Mt
Marginal Heat1
(50.2 PJ)
303.6 PJ
3.4 PJ3
3.5 Mt

27. Publication
Smart Energy Europe
www.EnergyPLAN.eu/SmartEnergyEuro
pe
 Report Online
 Paper Published

28. A Clean
Planet
for all
A European long-term
strategic vision
for a prosperous,
modern, competitive
and climate neutral
economy

29. A Clean Planet for all
A European long-term strategic vision
for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy

31. Guiding principle:
transitioning the current energy system in
Aalborg to 100% Renewable Energy
in a way so it fits into 100% RES in DK, then
Europe and finally the World
• Sustainable use of Biomass
• Definition of transport demands
• How to handle Industry
• How to balance electricity
demand and supply as well as
other fuels

32. Biomass in Denmark – Power and Heat
7 5 P J
I M P O R T
B I O M A S S P O T E N T I A L
O P T I M I S T : C A . 3 0 0 P J
P E S S I M I S T : 1 6 5 P J
R E A L I S T : 2 0 0 P J
3 0 G J B I O P R . C A P I T A I S
H I G H G L O B A L L Y

33. The Danish and the Global
Biomass Challenge
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
IDA's Energy
Vision 2050
CEESA 2050 Elbertsen et al.
(2012)
Gylling et al.
(2012)
L. Hamelin et al.
(2019)
BioBoost Smart Energy
Europe
PRIMES / -
1.5TECH
PRIMES - 1.5LIFE PRIMES -
1.5LIFE-LB
JRC-EU-TIMES
Model
Denmark EU27 (not including Croatia) and
Switzerland
EU28 EU28 + Iceland,
Norway,
Switzerland, and
Western Balkan
Countries
[GJ/cap]
Bioenergy potentialsper capita projected in different publications and
current bioenergy consumption
Bioenergy potential per capita (GJ/cap) Current consumption in Denmark (2018)
Biomass
per. person
Today in DK (175 PJ) 30 GJ/capita
Recent research for EU (8500 PJ) 17 GJ/capita
EU 2050 scenario
(A Clean Planet for all)
15-21 GJ/capita
IDA 100% RES in DK in 2050 (200 PJ) 30 GJ/capita
Danish Energy Agency scenario 2014 35-45 GJ/capita

34. Biomass
• Local Biomass resources in Aalborg (incl.
waste) 6100 TJ/year.
• Aalborg´s share of Danish sustainable
biomass resources (incl. bio-share of waste,
straw/wood and biogas) approx. 6200
TJ/year.

35. Transport
• Transport part/share of 100% RES in
DK as a whole:
• IDA Energy Vision 2050: As much
electric vehicles as possible.
Supplemented by bio-fuels for
aviation, trucks etc.

36. Industry
• Coal, oil and natural as in Industry in Aalborg constitutes
3.750 GWh/year (incl. Portland)
• Aalborg’s share (population) of Danish consumptions are
990 GWh/year.
• IDA-plan:
Savings,
efficiencies,
district heating
and cooling,
electricity and
green gas.

37. PV versus
Wind

38. Sankey diagram of the current system

39. Sankey diagram of the 2050 system

40. Hourly balancing of electricity
demand and supply
4660
4670
4680
4690
4700
4710
4720
4730
4740
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Totalsystemcosts[mio
DKK/year]
Imbalances[GW/year]
Excess electricity production
Import
Total system costs

41. Vision results
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2018 2050 BAU 2050
Imbalanced
2050 Vision
TWh
Primary energy
Coal Oil Gas Biomass
Onshore wind Solar PV Offshore wind
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2050 BAU 2050 Ubalanceret 2050 Scenarie
Annualcosts[M€]
Annual costs
Variable costs Fixed O&M Investments

42. PV (570 GWh/y from 500 MW)
• Equal to 20% of electricity production
• Could in principle by on existing
roofs:
– 950 hektar out of 2200
– 950 hektar could fully exploited produce
1060 GWh/year
• Or around 800 hektar fields
(including roads etc. - based on
“Vust Holme”)
• In the Energy Vision prices have
been based on a mix between the
two…

43. Wind:1050 GWh/y from 300 MW
• Aalborg already has 158 MW
• New wind farm (Nørkær Enge)
will increase to 220 MW
• Replacement by bigger wind
turbines is expected before 2050
• Additional expected 280 MW off
shore will produce 1270
GWh/year.

45. More information:
http://energy.plan.aau.dk/book.php
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
www.4DH.dk
www.energyplan.eu/smartenergysystems/
www.henriklund.eu
www.heatroadmap.eu
www.energyplan.eu/SmartEnergyEurope