A Positive Vision of a Sustainable Future

Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014
www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
A Positive Vision of a
Sustainable Future
Guy Dauncey, March 2014

We have come a long way from this….

but…

©Smithore Dreamstime.com
We have also come to this…

GDP =
Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet

Gross Depletion of the Planet
+ Yield
- Costs
= Profit

Gross Depletion of the Planet

CO2

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com

Liquefied Natural Gas - also a Fossil Fuel

As we burn the fossil fuels…
CO2 CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2
100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
= 1,000 tonnes a second

The last time the world was 3°C warmer
the sea level was 25 metres higher

2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres

1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves

All of this must remain in the ground

And this…
And this…

The power
of our vision
must be stronger than
the power
of our fears

“The future belongs to those who believe
in the beauty of their dreams.”
― Eleanor Roosevelt

"Dreams are extremely important.
You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”
- George Lucas

So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?

A Beautiful Green Future
A Cooperative Economy
Harmony with Nature
Cultural
Social
• Green Business
• Values-Based Banking
• Basic Income vs Poverty
• Debt Solutions
• Local Currencies
• A State Bank of BC
• Strong Local Economies
• Microcredit + more…
• 100% Renewable Energy
• Green Transportation
• Access to Nature
• Restored Creeks
• Compassion to Animals
• Clean Air & Water
• Lighter Consumer Footprint
• Zero Waste + more…
• Affordable Housing
• Affordable Education
• Green Homes and Buildings
• Affordable Healthcare & Dental
• Real Neighbourhoods
• Living Streets
• A Sharing Economy
• A Child-Friendly World + more…
• Beauty, Thriving Arts
• Strong First Nations
• Strong LGBT Community
• Local Food
• Rich Multicultural Realm
• Meaningful Vision of the Future
• Thriving Political Participation
• High Social Change Engagement

Seven Themes
1: A Cooperative Economy
2: Affordable Housing
3: The Return of Nature
4: Food without Chemicals
5: Energy without Fossil Fuels
6: Our Homes and Neighbourhoods
7: How Do We Make It Happen?

1: A Cooperative
Economy
Businesses flourishing in harmony with
other businesses, and with workers,
community, nature and the world.

Every Town or City has a
Mutual Support Business Network
Businesses pay a 0.4% levy on sales to
mutual support and cooperation.

Emilia Romagna, Italy
There are half a million businesses and coops in
the region, which pay a 0.4% levy on sales to
local inter-business organizations.
In return, they receive support with financing,
training, research, development strategies and
export efforts.

Emilia Romagna, Italy
• Population 4.4 million
• $$$, top ten European regions
• 32% self-employed
• 76% work in small
• Business with 4-5 workers
• Italy’s 4th largest exporter
• 400,000 enterprises
• 15,000 cooperatives
• Strong tradition of reciprocity,
regional economy mutual
support system, financed by
a 0.4% levy on sales
• High density of banks
• Regional credit system with
close ties to local enterprises
• Lowest unemployment
• Highest rate of citizen
satisfaction in Italy

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Cooperatives have set up their own
Mutual Support Networks

Local Businesses
are making
Wage Differential
Reduction Pledges
from 30:1 to 10:1

Many businesses have become
Benefit Corporations

Most businesses have Women
Directors on the Board
“Companies with more Women Board Directors
experience higher financial performance,
according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”

All businesses are incentivized to
acquire
Green Business Certification

Youth Enterprise Initiatives flourish

A publicly-owned
State Bank
has been established
Creates new credit
Holds public taxes and fees
Targets strategic investments
Clearing bank for other banks
Profits recycled, public benefit
Modeled on
The Bank of North Dakota

Banks and credit unions have embraced
Values-Based Banking
The banks in the Global Alliance for Banking on Values have
assets that exceed $60 billion, and touch the lives of
10 million people in 25 countries.

All banks and credit unions provide
Debt Circles

Many people have joined an
interest-free JAK Bank

WIR Inter-Business Banking is giving
businesses credit when they need it

Community Currencies are flourishing

Time-banking is flourishing
VANCOUVER

Micro-Lending is flourishing

Basic Income for all
has been established
A Basic Income is an income unconditionally
guaranteed to all on an individual basis,
without means test or work requirement.

The Local Food Economy
is flourishing
www.solefoodfarms.com

Student Debt problems have been solved

The Oregon Solution: Pay It Forward

The Sharing Economy is thriving

A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…

2: Affordable
Housing

Average Single Family Home:
$346,000
46% increase since 2005
Parksville/Qualicum

$346,000
Parksville/Qualicum
25 year mortgage @ 8.75%
5 year @ 4%

Possible Affordability Initiatives
Inclusionary Zoning
Density Bonusing
Secondary Suites
Infill Development
Demolition Control

$$ GATHERING THE MONEY $$
•Progressively increasing tax on real estate
sales over $2 million
•15% sales tax on properties bought through
offshore companies
•Annual levy on properties registered offshore
for tax reasons
•Escalating tax on empty properties to stop
developers from sitting on them

A Community Land Trust
which buys land for affordable housing
Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi

In rental apartments
Tenants’ Stewardship Councils
have the first right of purchase

Communal Renting has been legalized
for more than five people

Communal ownership has become common

Car-Free Laneway Micro-Housing
has become common

Rooftop Housing
is the new cool
thing for younger
people.

Micro-homes
502 Alexander St
Vancouver
280 sq ft
12 units, base cost
$85,000 each
CMHC

Micro-Homes Village Zone on
temporarily vacant land

3: The Return of Nature

Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini,
New York
Turning dull concrete schoolyards…

into Green Schoolyards

Semiahmoo Transit Station
Surrey, BC, Canada
Bringing greenery
into our towns and cities…

www.greenovergrey.com

Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna

Musee du Quai Branly, Paris
Patrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal

Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc

Restoring urban creeks and streams

Rainwater
Storage

4: Organic Food for All

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c

Food imported to
Vancouver Island:
95%

Good farmland
sits empty
Young people
want to farm

There are 7,702 hectares in the Alberni Valley
ALR. Only 3,171 hectares are actively farmed.
4,531 hectares are not being farmed.

Only 239 hectares are being used for
vegetables, berries, grapes and other
horticultural food crops.
= 3% of the farmland.
The valley produces between 5% and 11%
of the food consumed locally.

Using small-scale intensive organic
horticulture, farmers can earn to earn up to
$25,000 an acre, grossing up to $80,000 a
year of profit per small farm.

Throughout the world, in every culture,
farmers have lived in small farm villages

Yarrow Ecovillage and Farm, Yale, BC
Farm Villages

100 Hectare Farm
Anywhere, BC Farm
Village

100 Hectare Farm
Anywhere, BC Farm Village
Cost of land:
$100,000?
Shared by 5
families =
$20,000 each
Cost per small
starter
self-built house:
$150,000

100 Hectare Farm
Anywhere, BC
Four levels of protection,
to ensure that the Zone
is not abused:
1.New Community Farm Zone
2.A Covenant attached to the land
3.Strata Council Farm Fees
4.A Registered Housing Agreement

Alberni Valley Farmland
4,531 hectares =
possible 50 Farm villages

LAND OWNERSHIP
MODELS
(a) Strata-title, owned by
the new farmers
(b) A Community Land
Trust owns the land, the
farmers own their houses

Land zoned agricultural should also
carry a requirement applying to future
owners from the time of purchase, that
at least
10%
of the land be used to grow food …

or be leased to someone who will grow
food.

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
5: Energy without Fossil Fuels

Winter: -10o
C outside, no heat needed inside
Summer: 35o
C outside, only 26o
C inside
The Passive House

Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

Construction costs:
4.3% more per square foot

Monthly net energy savings
more than the increased mortgage

Air Source Solar Heat

Ground-Source Solar Heat

Water-Source Solar Heat

Solar Hot Water

Rolf Disch Solar Architecture
Solar PV

Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013

100,000
GW in
2012
Solar PV 7000% increase
since 2000

4 kW PV System
$16,000 in Victoria
$14,000 if 5 houses together
4,400 kWh year

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
Roman Empire
Islamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Oil
……………………………………….
The last 10,000 years

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
The last 10,000 years
...................................................
What happens here,
when we stop using oil?

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun does not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
and get cheaper.

Transportation without Fossil Fuels

Neighbourhood Walkability Audit
www.walklive.org

In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement
is by bicycle

Granville Street Bridge
Vancouver’s Future

Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

Free transit, paid in city taxes
From 1996-2006 ridership increased
from 1,000 to 12,600 riders a day
Payment is now $1 per ride.
Hasselt, Belgium

Real-time electronic bus stops

Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas
from sewage treatment

OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Bus Rapid Transit in Curitiba, Brazil

Light Rail Transit
www.islandtransformations.org

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.comElectric + Green Electricity = No Climate Impact

See
Victoria Carshare Coop
650 members share 23 vehicles
www.victoriacarshare.ca
Car Sharing

Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicles owners earn
up to $300 a month

Chevy Volt Hybrid Gas Electric Car
2,500 km on one tank of gas

Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012
Diesel plug-in hybrid
75 km battery range
0.9 litres/100 km 312 mpg

In France: Renault Twizy EV
2 seats, 100 km range
80 kph, 3.5 hours recharge
$9,700 + $60/month battery lease

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Smart Electric – 135 km range

Mitsubishi MiEV – 150 km range

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Toyota RAV4 EV - 148 km range

Tesla Model-X: 300-400 km range

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month
Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
The Cost of Power for Electric Cars
EV Bargain!!
10 times cheaper
to run!

Solar Roadways
In US, 3 x total electricity demand
www.solarroadways.com

No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies

6: Our Homes
and Neighbourhoods

Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, Colombia

Pedestrian Plaza
In Buenos Aires,
Argentina

Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea
Before and After

Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea

The Highline
Converted Railway,
New York

London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames
Thomas Heatherwick

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.cPortland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org

Creekside Commons Cohousing, Courtenay

A Happy, Resilient Future
More walking, biking, bus, carsharing Lower transport costs
More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating
Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs
Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community
More urban greenery More inner space, and peace
Stronger community economy More financial security
Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs
No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city
More civic engagement Healthier political realm
Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness
More arts, music and neighbourhood
celebration
More friends, more happiness,
more love

7: How Do We
Make It Happen?

Engaging Young People
www.leadingchangenetwork.com

Electronic ballots
Voting aged reduced to 16
Transferable Voting for City Hall
$100 tax credit for voting

Design the Future
Community Meetings

A Green, Sustainable Future
is not an ‘Option’
It is an Urgent Necessity

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?
Where Do We Come From?
What Are We?
Where Are We Going??

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Universe has taken
13 billion years
to create us

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in the Universe
1024
: 1 trillion trillion

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Stars in the Universe
1024
: 1 trillion trillion
Atoms in your body
1027
: 1,000 trillion trillion

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We are amazing…
and we are all conscious

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We have free will
We can make a difference

It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
This is about us, our planet,
our children and our future.

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com

A Positive Vision of a Sustainable Future

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