The Future of Japan

Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
The Future of Japan

The Future of Our World

Guy Dauncey
Dawn
Sea

Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com

When you think about
your personal future
what do you feel?

Excitement
Hope
Uncertainty
Worry
Fear

When you think about
the future of our world,
what do you feel?

Guy Dauncey
A Presentation to Students
at Vancouver Island University, July 2014
Building a New Future

What is your vision
of the future?

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

XishuangbanNa Residence
Sustainable Modern Bamboo High-Rise
in China

Bird Island: Zero Energy Home in Kuala Lumpur

1
What is our
REALITY?
実在

We’ve come a long way from this….

To this …

but…

Everyone wants to go shopping…

©Smithore Dreamstime.com
We’ve also come to this…

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

?……

If everyone lived like Canadians or Japanese,
we'd need two more Earths
to provide the resources.

Live Rainforest
Dead Rainforest

What went wrong?
How did this…

Gross
Domestic
Product
国内総生産

turn into this? …

Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet
惑星のグロス枯渇

Do you think there are
too many people
on the Earth?
YES NO ?

Do you think we
consume too much?
YES NO ?
消費する

2
GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
地球規模の気候変動

Almost all our energy is Solar Energy

Almost all energy is Solar Energy
The Sun sends us solar energy
The trees capture the energy
through photosynthesis
and convert it into CARBON
In

359 million years ago
The Carboniferous (Solar) Era

When ancient
forests died,
they stored the
carbon
as
COAL
In

When we burn the
COAL
it releases the
ancient carbon
and causes
GLOBAL
WARMING
In

Ancient Solar Energy Solar Coal
Bye-bye, West VirginiaHello, Global Warming

The Sun also sends solar energy
into the ocean

It is captured by ocean plankton,
who store it as CARBON

When they die,
the ancient carbon
becomes
OIL and GAS

Most of our energy comes from:
COAL, OIL and GAS
Ancient solar energy = ancient carbon

Ancient Marine Plankton Solar Oil & Gas
Hello, Global Warming

Oil is also a cause of war and conflict

They are all FOSSIL FUELS
They all cause Global Warming

The cars we drive all cause global warming

12.5 million tonnes of coal
10 million tonnes of oil
7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas
Every day, we burn
this ancient carbon energy

This gives us lots of ……
POWER!

85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuels

Earth has a very thin atmosphere
which traps and holds the sun’s heat,
using CO2, methane, & water vapour.

As we burn the fossil fuels…
When we burn fossil fuels…

CO2 CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2

CO2 CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2
100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
= 1,000 tonnes a second

Carbon dioxide traps

Carbon dioxide,
like the other greenhouse
gases, traps
HEAT
in the troposphere

The carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere
is rising

After 10,000 years of relative stability
at 280 ppm, this is how dramatically
CO2 is rising in the atmosphere.

Heat warms the air and the oceans

Glaciers are melting

The Arctic sea ice is melting

Greenland is melting

Around parts of Greenland, ocean surface temperatures rose
1.8°-3.6°F between 1990-2011.

The last time the world was 3C warmer,
the sea level was 25 metres higher

The last time the world was
3°C warmer, during the Pliocene,
the sea level was up to
25 metres
higher.
We are currently on track for
4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer

2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres

If all Earth’s polar ice melted
70 metres sea-level rise
92 metres
70 metres

This is impacting all marine life
that uses calcium carbonate to build its shells

The ocean is absorbing 26% of the CO2,
making it more acidic.

If global warming exceeds
1.6°C
up to
31%
of Earth’s species
will be committed to
extinction,
having nowhere to go
to escape the rising heat

2°C of warming, Hansen’s team says,
will have consequences that will be
“disastrous,” and which will
“cause major dislocations for civilization.”
2°C of warming, Hansen’s team says,
will have consequences that will be
“disastrous,” and which will
“cause major dislocations for civilization.”

Which of us is going to raise a hand and say,
“Yes, it’s worth it”?

Seoul, July 2011

IPCC 2007

www.globalwarmingart.com
+ 2˚C rise

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
is the
Age of Fossil Fuels
This
10,000
years past
10,000
years future

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Sun is rapidly setting
on the Age of Fossil Fuels.

 Past Future Age of
Fossil
Fuels
We are HERE

The Age of
Firewood
The Age of
Fossil Fuels
The Solar Age

The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the
LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
500,000 years
Firewood
300 years
Fossil Fuels
Science
Engineering
Enlightenment
Two billion years
Solar Energy

Comparison of Vegetation Zones
Average vs Warmer (21st Century) Climate

Kyoto, December 23rd 2006

Mount Fuji in Spring

Mt. Fuji - no snow

All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level

Florida 17 feet (5-6 metres) sea level rise

Hurricane Katrina, August 2005

New Orleans, August 2005

Torrential
downpours
and floods

At the current predicted temperature rise,
33%
of the Earth will be affected
by extreme drought by 2100
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK), 2006

Number of days over
100°F / 38°C
60 days a year
120+ days a year

At the current predicted temperature rise,
Up to 20%
of the world’s economy could be lost
That’s like the Great Depression
and both World Wars combined
+

Wake up! Call the media! Get on TV!
Climate change is destroying our world!

There’s also a second problem
The Global Oil SupplyGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007

Do you sometimes feel
that it’s all getting
out of control?

So what shall
we do?

Do you think it is
possible to stop
burning fossil fuels?
化石燃料
YES NO ?
燃やす

3
JAPAN’S
ENERGY PROBLEM
エネルギー問題

Coal 21%
Oil 46%
Gas 15%
Nuclear 15%
= 1,000
Terawatt hours
a year

Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
97% of all
Japan’s
energy
is imported
$$
$$
$$
$$

Uranium 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
USA 75%
France 11%
Britain 10%

Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
?

www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath

www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf

How serious 切実
is Japan’s
Energy Problem?
1. Very serious
2. I don’t know
3. Not serious

4
JAPAN’S
ENERGY
SOLUTIONS
解答Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013

We need…
A 100% Shift to
Renewable
Energy
©Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com

We need…
A Green Economy
Harmony
with Nature
True Sustainability

How much energy does Japan need?
1,000 terawatt hours a year

1,000 terawatt hours
a year
千テラワット時間今
年

Where will the green
electricity come from?

Efficient Appliances

LED lights
only use
1 to 5 watts

How much energy can Japan SAVE?
200 to 500 terawatt hours a year

More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour
than humans use in a year.

Solar energy travels at the speed of light
1,000 million kilometres an hour

Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds

www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture
Solar Power

Ota Solar City, Japan

Solar-powered homes
Yoshikawa, near Tokyo

Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK

Solar railway
Paris to Amsterdam
16,000 panels
3.4 kilometres
3,300 MWh a year

Dow’s Solar Shingles

Thin film solar

Thin film solar production

Thin Film: average module efficiencies 13.9%
US $0.49 per watt (First Solar)
Conventional multi-crystalline PV: $0.43 per watt
average conversion efficiency 15% - 19%

The Falling Price of Solar PV

Price of
Solar Cells
1977: $76
1981: $24
1991: $9
2001: $6
2011: $1.25
2013: $0.74

Solar Economics in BC, 2020
4 kW PV system
15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
Cash down
Cost per kW $1,600
4 kW + 5% tax $6,720
kWh per year 4,400
25 year savings $25,600
Profit +$19,000

Solar Economics in Japan, 2020
4 kW PV system
35 cents kwh, 0% per year increase
Cash down
Cost per kW $1,600
4 kW + 0% tax $6,400
kWh per year 4,400
25 year savings $38,500
25 year profit +$32,000

Price of Installed Solar Power
Germany: $2.50 a watt
US & Canada: $4 a watt
Japan: $4 a watt

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
and fall in price.

By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW
will lose up to $1,000 a year

Victoria:
Solar Rooftop Potential Everywhere

Vancouver:
Solar Rooftop Potential Everywhere

Every commercial roof could look like this,
and earn $10,000 a year

How much SOLAR energy
could Japan produce?

Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

Concentrating Solar Thermal Energy

Solar Millennium AG
The Sun radiates almost 1000 times
more energy onto Earth’s deserts
than humans use.

Odeillo solar furnace, France. Built 1970
10,000 mirrors, 3000°C

Solana, Arizona
280 MW Solar Thermal + 6 hours storage

254 sq km
Global electricity use
110 sq km
European Union
www.desertec.org
High-voltage DC can transmit electricity up to 3000 km.
90% of the world’s people live within 3000 km
of the world’s deserts and arid regions

Solar One, Nevada, 64 MW
Earth’s total known fossil energy reserves
are equivalent to 47 days of solar energy
reaching the Earth’s deserts

How much SOLAR THERMAL energy
Unknown

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa
2-12 cents kWh
39 countries could get 100% power
= 17% of the world’s people

Geothermal power
Nesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland

How much GEOTHERMAL energy
Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita

Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark
Wind Energy

Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan

Siemens AG

Wind Power in Japan

How much WIND energy
570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year

How much HYDRO energy
79 - 140 terawatt hours a year

How much TIDAL energy
20-70 terawatt hours a year

South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok
tidal power plant

The Cost is Falling
1990 2013 2020
Wind 30 8-10 8 cents kWh
Solar 200 30 15 cents kWh

THE RESULT
Japan needs 1,000 TWh a year
Low High
Efficiency 200 500
Solar 72 300
Geothermal 30 500
Wind 570 5000
Hydro 79 140
Tidal 20 70
TOTAL 971 6510

Do you think it is
possible for Japan stop
burning fossil fuel
化石燃料
for electricity?
YES NO ?

5
TRANSPORTATION
輸送
SOLUTIONS
解答Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013

CO2 CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2
100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
= 1,000 tonnes a second

Copenhagen
36% of all work trips by bike.

Electric Bicycle

Moto Electra World Record
Across US in 3 Days

www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Electric Motorbike

Solar electric bicycles in Tokyo

Electric train, running on
green electricity
= no climate impact

Public Transit

www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net

Electric bus, running on green electricity
= no climate impact

OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Japan’s Future Electric Bus

Chevy Volt
1,400 km on one tank of gas

Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

Smart Electric – 135 km range

Mitsubishi MiEV
160 km range

Toyota RAV4 EV
148 km range

Tesla Roadster 393 km range

Top
The KIA Pop: yet to be released

Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven University
Family size, 4-seater
Roadworthy, legal in Holland
Weight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)
Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshine
Solar PV cost $4,000
10 months a year it produces more energy than it uses
Excess power back into the grid

Electric cars,
running on green electricity
= no climate impact

1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
PV for EV

1.5 kW solar PV
$7,500
3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

Solar Roadways
In US, 3 x total electricity demand
www.solarroadways.com

Honda solar electric car charging

Electric car fast charging

Mercedes Biome – made from bioplastic

Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com

9 MW of solar panels
Retractable sails between each cargo bay
Self-unloading cargo bays
Superconducting power link
Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cells
Sleek, low wind resistance design

Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Telemeetings = no climate impact

Do you think it is
possible for Japan
to have
transportation
without oil?
YES NO ?

6
BUILDING
SOLUTIONS

We can live and work in green buildings

What is your vision of a future green world?

Is this your dream home of the future?

Or this?Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013

This…

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Or this?

This …

Or this?

Heating 加熱
without Fossil Fuels

Solar Heat + Storage
Austria

Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating

Solar Heating from the Air

Ground Source Heat
2 million installations in 30 countries
$20,000 to $30,000

Water Source Heat

Ice-Source Heat
Richmond Olympic Skating Oval

Solar Heat
Solar hot water
on a restaurant in
Sweden
Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan

www.solarbc.ca
A project of the BCSEA

Lindau Hospital, Germany

Rizhao, China

99% of city centre households use solar hot water.
60,000 greenhouses, all solar powered.
Whole city plans to become carbon neutral.
Rizhao, China
Population 3 million

CSIRO

Solar Wall Heating

Welsh Development Agency
Technology Center, St. Asaph, Wales

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
Year-Round Solar Heating

Energy Centre
Community solar
heat panels
Solar hot water
panels

800 solar hot water panels on the garages
90% of residential space heating (40-50o
C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of GHGs per home per year.

No groundwater intrusion,
so the heat accumulates over the summer.

Molten Salt: 7.5 hours after dark

• Heat storage in an underground
aquifer

100% solar heated house, Emmental, Switzerland
www.jenni.ch

Collective solar thermal system
on a residential building, Germanywww.wagner-solar.com

Pearl River
Tower
Guangzhou,
China

Bahrain
World Trade Centre

Virgo Road, Oakland Hills, San Francisco
Robert Nebolon architect

Toyko, Japan

8,000 sq ft zero carbon home designed for
Manchester United soccer player Gary Neville

ACROS Fukuoka building in Fukuoka, Japan.
35,000 plants, 76 species

Osaka

Ogimachi – Shirakawa Farm Village

Tono Furusato Restored Farm Village

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Madrid, Spain

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Gangnam district, Seoul

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
ACROS Fukuoka building
Fukuoka, Japan

Do you think it is
possible to heat
Japan’s buildings
without fossil fuels?
YES NO ?

7
OUR PAST
AND
OUR FUTURE

We have been developing intelligence
for millions of years

Our technology
is the expression of our
cumulative 累積の
shared シェアード
intelligence 知性

Where are
we going?

We have made our
full evolutionary
journey
over 13.8 billion years

We have made
our recent
evolutionary journey
over ten million years

There will be
a billion years
before the Sun runs out of fuel
and begins to die

A billion years
10 億年
We are here
Past
過去
Future
将来

Firewood
1.5 million years
Cumulative
Intelligence
The Carbon Years…

The Carbon Years
could be the launch-ramp…
Firewood
1.5 million years
Cumulative
Intelligence
Fossil Fuels
200 years

The Carbon Years could be
the launch-ramp for the solar years
Firewood Solar
1.5 million years
Cumulative
Intelligence
Fossil Solar
200 years
True Solar
1 billion years

THE CLIMATE EMERGENCY
IS VERY REAL
What is stopping us from making
faster progress?
1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心
2. Political corruption 政治腐敗
3. Ignorance 不知
4. Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership
指導

8
FINAL
THOUGHTS

A Thousand PossibilitiesGuy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013

What will you do with your life?

We Day, Canada www.weday.comGuy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013

It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013

www.metowe.comGuy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c

By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand
We need to roll up the past.

www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com By Iskren Rumenov Petrov, age 14, from Bulgaria
We need to sail away from our old, polluting ways
and build a green, sustainable world.

This is about you, your children,
and your future.

決意

Number of stars in the Universe
1024
: 1 trillion trillion

The Universe has taken
13 billion years
to create us

Number of
atoms in your
body:
1027
: 1000 trillion
trillion
All self-organized
into one amazing
whole

Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bang
or in a later Supernova explosion

Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion

Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole

100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars

We are all conscious

Do you have free will to choose your future?
Or is everything predetermined?

You have free will
We can make a difference

This is about us, our planet,
and our future.

There are 7 billion of us humans…

Can we self-organize ourselves
into
one
peaceful
whole,
living
in harmony
with Nature?

Our Home

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
Fall
2014

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

The Future of Japan

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