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Green Buildings
The View from 2032

Guy Dauncey, November 2013

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
When you think about
the future of our world,
what do you feel?
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Excitement
Hope
Uncertainty
Worry
Fear
Guy Dauncey 2013
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How would YOU
like to live?

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Is this your dream home of the future?
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Or this?
This…

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Or this?
Guy Dauncey 2013
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This…

Guy Dauncey 2013

Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.c
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Or this?

Guy Dauncey 2013
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This …

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Or this?
Guy Dauncey 2013
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This…
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Or this?

Guy Dauncey 2013

Guy Dauncey 2007
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We’ve come a long way from this….

Guy Dauncey 2013
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To this …

Guy Dauncey 2013
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but…

Guy Dauncey 2013
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We’ve also come to this…

Guy Dauncey 2013
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©Smithore Dreamstime.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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If everyone lived like North Americans,
we'd need two more Earths
to provide the resources

Guy Dauncey 2013
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CO2

CO2
CO2

CO2

CO2
CO2

100 million tonnes a day
4 million tonnes an hour
67,000 tonnes a minute
As we burn thetonnesfuels…
1,000 fossil a second

Guy Dauncey 2013
2007
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Monday

Guy Dauncey 2013
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OMG!
Daddy, you’re
going to die!!!!

Monday

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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25 metres

18 metres

The last time the
global temperature
was 3°C warmer,
the sea-level was
25 metres higher.
10 metres

2 metres
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Massbommel, Holland

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Louisiana, USA
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Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)
CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)

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Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming

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Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves

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WE HAVE TO LEAVE

80%
OF THE FOSSIL FUELS
IN THE GROUND
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?
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Guy Dauncey 2007
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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OKAY,
SO LET’S
GET REAL
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The Best Green Building Policies

Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened

Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging

Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value

Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
2. All permitted improvement projects greater than 5,000
sq. ft. must upgrade to the new Green Building Code

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
2. All permitted improvement projects greater than 5,000
sq. ft. must upgrade to the new Green Building Code
3. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
2. All permitted improvement projects greater than 5,000
sq. ft. must upgrade to the new Green Building Code
3. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
4. On-Bill Financing for energy efficiency upgrades

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
2. All permitted improvement projects greater than 5,000
sq. ft. must upgrade to the new Green Building Code
3. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
4. On-Bill Financing for energy efficiency upgrades
5. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
2. All permitted improvement projects greater than 5,000
sq. ft. must upgrade to the new Green Building Code
3. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
4. On-Bill Financing for energy efficiency upgrades
5. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
6. Green building grants, education and technical services
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Ten Green Future
Building Themes

1: Energy Efficiency
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Good
insulation

Guy Dauncey 2013
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No
insulation
Heat
escaping
Heat not
escaping

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Heat not
escaping

Heat
escaping

Guy Dauncey 2013
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www.hotmapping.co.uk
Home Energy Retrofits
Most of the 2032 housing stock
will be today’s buildings
Building envelope: Reduce leaks
Heat: Switch oil/gas to solar heat pumps
Power: Add solar PV and solar hot water
Financing: Pay-As-You-Save Utility loan or
Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE)
loan, that runs with the property
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Internal wall insulation

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External wall insulation
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www.architecture2030.org
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www.rmi.org
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Empire State Building
Sustainability
Retrofit

38%
reduced energy use

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Window refurbishment
6,514 windows
= 4 x more efficient
Insulated Radiative Barriers
Chiller plant
Variable speed drives
5% improvement
Air handling units
Variable air volume
Wireless Control
Network
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Daylighting
Efficient plugs
and lighting
save 75% energy

Tenant Energy Management

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WE CAN ACHIEVE

90%
HEAT ENERGY
REDUCTION
IN NEW HOMES
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com
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16" foam insulation under slab and
outside foundation walls
8” studs, 24” OC with plywood and OSB
EuroLine Windows fiberglass/UPVC
triple-glazed U= 0.73
Air tightness 0.6 ACH at 50 pa.
(1.6 for R2000; up to 10 older homes)
Blown cellulose insulation
Heat recovery ventilation: 90% exhaust
heat transferred to incoming fresh air
Natural gas hot water, space heat
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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= 4.3% more
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Passivhaus

Winter: -10 oC outside, no heat needed
inside
Summer: 35 oC outside, only 26 oC inside

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Passive House
near St. Jacob
in Frankfurt.
“Factor 10”
Petra Genz and Folkmer Rasch

25,000
Passive Houses
In Europe

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Stabilized Insulated Rammed Earth
SIREWALL R-50

Guy Dauncey 2013
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SIREWALL insulates 13.5 times more than a
concrete wall of the same thickness;
5.5 times more than a rammed earth wall.

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Straw Bale Construction

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Solar heated cob house
The Highlands, Victoria, BC
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Ann & Gord Baird
Eco-Sense, Highlands of Victoria
www.eco-sense.ca
Energy Efficiency in Wall Assemblies
Tent
Earthship
Mobile Home
Basic stick-frame
Hi-end stick frame
ICF 9”
Cob 18”
Straw Bale 18”
Passive House
SIREWALL 24”

R1
R5
R10
R14
R20
R20
R10-20
R17-55
R50
R50

Meror Krayenhoff, November 2013
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Zero Net Energy Housing

By 2020, every new home in California must be
zero net energy - emit no carbon
and give power back to the grid.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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By 2016, every new home in Britain
must be zero-carbon.
www.zerocarbonhub.org
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Ten Green Future
Building Themes

2: Renewable Heat
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Renewable Energy Heat Pumps
Solar-Source
Moisture-Source
Ground-Source
Water-Source
Sewer-Source
Ice-Source
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Solar (Air Source) Heat Pump

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pump
Solar Air Moisture Heat Pump

Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Octopus Ice-Stick
www.octopus.tm
Since 1991
In Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland,
Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland,
Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Ice-Stick pipes condense water vapor from the
air, causing the refrigerant to warm and evaporate.
As the evaporated gas moves to the compressor,
pressurization raises its temperature.
A pump sends the accumulated heat through the
building’s water system.
As the heat is dispersed the pressure falls, and the
refrigerant travels back to the evaporator to repeat
the cycle.
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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• Saves 50-75% on heating costs
• Uses air moisture, quiet air collector
• Operates down to -25o C
The cross is
an Ice-Stick
heat pump

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Ground Source Heat

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Geothermal Radial Drilling
Austrian geo-drilling technique
http://geothermic.tracto-technik.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Water Source Heat

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Ice Source Heat
Richmond Olympic Skating Oval

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Greenwatt Way, Slough, UK

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63 kW solar PV
30 kW Biomass boiler
40 kW Air source heat pump
2 x 17 kW Ground source heat pumps
Energy Centre on roof 20m2 solar thermal panels
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District Heat

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Pre-insulated piping used to
heat most homes and
commercial buildings in
Scandinavia.
Insulation allows the delivery
of hot water at 200o C to
customers up to 15 miles
away, with a net loss of only
a few degrees.

Photo and text by Jayson Antonoff
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Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based District Heat

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat
from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments

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District Heating Plant, Vienna
Heats 60,000 apartments using incineration
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Friedensreich Hundertwasser
BedZED
Sutton, London, UK
Super-efficient,
smart metered
CHP power and hot water
from local tree wastes

Space heat: 88% less
Hot water: 57% less
Electricity: 25% less

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Energy
 Centre

Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED),

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Sutton, London, UK
Victoria - Dockside Green

Plan: 100% heat from gasified wood-wastes
Interim reality: Heat from natural gas

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Solar Thermal District Heating

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.
800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages

90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of
greenhouse gas emissions
per home per year.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
The Energy Centre

Solar hot water
panels
Guy Dauncey 2013
2007
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Community solar
heat panels
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Sorce: Solvis

Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany

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Collective solar thermal system
on a residential building, Germany
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www.wagner-solar.com
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Olivier Drucke, 2009
Ten Green Future
Building Themes

3: Solar Energy
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Rolf Disch Solar Architecture
Guy Dauncey 2013

Guy Dauncey 2007
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Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013
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Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials,
Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008
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Solar PV

7000% increase
since 2000
100,000
GW in
2012

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Business Insider, Oct 3, 2013
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3 kW
$15,000 in Victoria
$9,000 at IKEA, UK
3,300 kWh year

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Solar Economics in Victoria, BC
(No Feed-in Tariff)
3 kW, 3% financing, 3% pa BC Hydro inflation
2013
Cost per kW
$5,000
Cost of 3 kW system $15,000
$25 yr 3% mortgage $21,300

2020
$3,000
$9,000
$12,780

kWh per year
25 years + 3% pa

3,300 kWh
$12,009

3,300 kWh
$14,768

Profit (Loss)

(-$9,291)

$1,988

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Tubular hybrid solar photovoltaic panels
www.nakedenergy.co.uk
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Thin-film Solar PV
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Solar Hot Water

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Solar hot water
on a restaurant in
Sweden

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan
Rizhao, China
Population 3 million

99% of city centre households use solar hot water.
60,000 greenhouses, all solar powered.

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Rizhao, China

CSIRO
The Human Journey
5,000,000
years past

5,000,000
years future

This tiny slither of time is
the Age of Fossil FuelsGuy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
If we act as wisely, two hundred Carbon
Years become the launch ramp for a
billion Solar Years…

Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
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If we act as wisely, two hundred Carbon
Years become the launch ramp for a
billion Solar Years…

Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Fossil Solar
200 years
If we act as wisely, two hundred Carbon
Years become the launch ramp for a
billion Solar Years…

Renewable Solar
1.75 billion years
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Fossil Solar
200 years
Ten Green Future
Building Themes

Guy Dauncey 2013
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4: Smart Electronics
Guy Dauncey 2013
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“House off”
LED Lighting
Guy Dauncey 2013
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LED
Chandeliers

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Li-fi instead of Wi-fi
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Smart Thermostats: NEST

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Coming soon, Digital Art….

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Ten Green Future
Building Themes

5: Water
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Dual Flush Toilets

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Composting Toilets

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Rainwater
Storage

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Bioswale to capture rainwater
SEA Street, Seattle

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SEA Street, Seattle

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Porous
Pavement

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Water Conservation Credits
1. Builder in 2032 wants a building permit for a new
house
2. Water conserving actions in existing houses earn
conservation credits
3. Water conserving companies retrofit existing
houses, collect credits.
4. Builder must buy credits from existing owners to
qualify for building permit for new house
5. Net increase in water-use from new house = ZERO
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Ten Green Future
Building Themes

6: Green Roofs & Walls
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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8,000 sq ft zero carbon home designed for
Manchester United soccer player Gary Neville
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Toyko, Japan
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Musee du quai Branly in Paris
designed by Patrick Blanc Le Mur Vegetal
Patrick Blanc

Madrid’s vertical
garden is made up of
more than 15,000
plants, from 250
different species.

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Children’s Library, San Vicente del Raspeig, Spain
Architect Jose Maria Chofre
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Athenaeum Hotel, London
Patrick Blanc
Vancouver Public Library
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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ACROS building, Fukuoka, Japan
35,000 plants, 76 species
United Bank of Switzerland
Basel
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Rogner Spa and Hotel Hot Springs
Friedensreich Hundertwasser
Bad Blumau, Styria, Austria

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Before…

Semiahmoo Transit Station
Surrey, BC, Canada
Guy Dauncey 2013
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After…

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www.greenovergrey.com
The Gherkin, London

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Vincent Callebaut
Agora tower project
Xinyin, Taipei, Taiwan
High-performance
Suspended orchards
Organic vegetable gardens
No industrial waste
Central circular light
Solar PV
Rainwater filtration

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2007
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Singapore,
Editt Tower
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Vincent Callebaut
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Vincent Callebaut: Asian Cairns, Sustainable Megaliths for
Guy Dauncey 2007
Rural Urbanity, Shenzhen, China, 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2007
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Ten Green Future
Building Themes

Guy Dauncey 2013
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7: Food
www.talkgreentous.ca
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Guy Dauncey 2007
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Guy Dauncey 2007
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Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.com
Ten Green Future
Building Themes

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

8: The Market Response
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Green Homes Outselling the Market
In 2009, Certified green homes in Seattle
made up 33% of the new home market,
sold for a 37% premium per sq ft
and were on the market for 22% less time.
In July 2009, almost 50% of new homes were
sold with a green certification.
Over 50%, and appraisers will need to discount
a home that is not green, since green will have
become the new market norm.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Ten Green Future
Building Themes

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

9: Green Streets
and Neighbourhoods
Redesign, Remodel, Reclaim
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Portland, Oregon

Guy Dauncey 2013

Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.c
www.earthfuture.com

www.CityRepair.org
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
EarthSong Eco-Neigbourhood, Auckland, New Zealand

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Namba Parks
Osaka, Japan

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Hundertwasser's Waldspirale, Darmstadt, Germany
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Ten Green Future
Building Themes

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

10: Affordable Housing
Vancouver
Average House Prices, July 2013

Two-storey house: $1,151,250
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Vancouver
Average House Prices, July 2013

Detached bungalow: $1,052,500
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Vancouver
Average House Prices, July 2013

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Condo: $490,475
Communal Living

8-Bedroom house in North Van: $1.5 million
= $250k each for 8 owners
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Laneway Housing

Ideally no parking permit, rainwater collection,
zero-net energy
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Rooftop Housing

www.loftcube.net
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Shipping Container
Homes
502 Alexander St
Vancouver

280 sq ft
12 units, base cost
$85,000 each

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Community Land Trusts

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Affordable Housing Financing
Progressively increasing tax on real estate sales
over $1 million
15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore
companies
Annual levy on expensive properties registered
offshore
Escalating land tax on empty properties
Money to a city Affordable Housing Authority
Community Housing Circles, to buy land owned by a
Community Land Trust and build housing.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
REMEMBER…

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Boras, Sweden
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
A Green, Sustainable Future
is not an Option
It is an Absolute Necessity
in which we must all
become engaged
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey/
green-buildings-view-from-2032

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

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Green Buildings: The View from 2032

Editor's Notes

  1. Dietikon green housing in Switzerland