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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
LOOK – NO CARBON!
The Future of Transportation
BCSEA Victoria Chapter
January 19, 2015

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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OUR
ATMOSPHERE

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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The last time the world was
3°C warmer, the sea level was up
to
25 metres higher

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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The last time the world was
3°C warmer, the sea level was up
to
25 metres higher
We are currently on track for
4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer

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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

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Earthfuture.com Garth Lenz

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Garth Lenz

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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For an 80% chance of not hitting 2°C
Budget = 506 Gt of CO2
We produce 40 Gt a year
A Global Carbon Budget

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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
For an 80% chance of not hitting 2°C
Budget = 506 Gt of CO2
We produce 40 Gt a year
Nature takes 55%
Atmosphere takes 45%
18 Gt is added to the atmosphere
A Global Carbon Budget

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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
For an 80% chance of not hitting 2°C
Budget = 506 Gt of CO2
We produce 40 Gt a year
Nature takes 55%
Atmosphere takes 45%
18 Gt is added to the atmosphere
Budget shrinks by 18 Gt a year
Exhausted in 28 years
A Global Carbon Budget

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How Are We Using the Oil?
Cars & light trucks 40%
Heavy trucks 13%
Flying 8%
Shipping 2.5%
Asphalt 3%
Rail freight 1%
Recreational 1%
Military 1.5%
TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%
Non-transport uses 29%

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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Integrated Cost Analysis
$
Cycling
Transit
Highways
Rail
$

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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Integrated Governance
Cycling
Transit
Highways
Rail

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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 Carbon Taxes
 Vehicle Feebates
 Road tolls
 Municipal taxes
 General taxes
 GST
How can we pay for it?

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1 Pedestrian-Friendly Cities

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Neighbourhood Walkability Audit
www.walklive.org

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Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus

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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.comPortland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org

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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guywww.restreets.org

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Guywww.restreets.org

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www.restreets.org

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www.restreets.org

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www.earthfuture.com

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www.earthfuture.com

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Pedestrian Cities
1. Make it a Municipal priority
2. Organize Walking Audits
3. Build costs into the Transportation Budget

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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
2 Cycling

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement
is by bicycle

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 Safe bike routes and intersections
 Good bike parking
 Cycling education in schools

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Earthfuture.com Shanghai, China

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Earthfuture.com School at Assen, Holland

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Earthfuture.com A Dutch Intersection

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Electric Bicycles

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Cost: $24 million

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$24 million
3,200 km of 1.5 metre bike lane
200 - 700 km of bike lane with road widening
240 km of separated bike lane

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SHOVEL READY PROJECTS

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1. Make it a Municipal and Regional Priority
2. Build into Transportation Budgets
3. Complete the CRD Regional
Pedestrian & Cycling Masterplan

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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.comCRD Pedestrian and Cycling Master Plan

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3
Public Transit

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Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage
treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.

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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces
95% less CO2 than diesel

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100% Electric Buses

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Umea, Sweden
Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
10-20 kWh = 10 km

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On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

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Earthfuture.comWinnipeg 100% Electric Bus

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Earthfuture.comChinese BYD electric bus, being made in America

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Flash charge electric bus, Hamburg, Germany

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Flash charge electric bus, China

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Flash
charge
electric bus,
Geneva

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Vienna, Austria
Europe’s first fleet of mass-produced,
quick-charge, fully electric buses. (Seimens)

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Bus stop on Interurban Road, Victoria

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Earthfuture.com Fun with Bus Shelters

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Real-time electronic bus stops

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Hasselt, Belgium
Free transit, included in city taxes
1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership

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Malahat
30,000 vehicles a day

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Earthfuture.comLuxury Long-Distance Coaches

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An extra $12 a day over the bus
for convenience, productivity and comfort.
Needed 25 regular customers.

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Road-pricing
on the Malahat

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$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day
240 luxury coaches @ $10 a day + $10
6-8,000 passengers a day
25% reduced traffic

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Nantes, France
4 Bus Rapid Transit

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Earthfuture.comLight Rail Transit or Bus Rapid Transit?

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Light Rail Transit
5

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Rail for the Valley

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Earthfuture.com Possible Victoria LRT Route

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Victoria: $62 million/km
Calgary: $15 million/km
Calgary bus: $1.50 a ride
Calgary LRT: 27 cents a ride

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Besançon: $22 million/km

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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Electric train + green electricity
= zero carbon
6

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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Electrostar battery-powered train.
Being tested in UK on a 12-mile stretch at 65 miles per hour.
80,000 phosphate and hot sodium nickel salt batteries,
each the size of a BIC lighter.

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The E & N

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Railway or Bikeway?

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Railway or Bikeway?

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7 Zero-Carbon Telework

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Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems

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8 Ride-Sharing

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Earthfuture.com Real-time Ride-sharing

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Guaranteed emergency ride home
Cash-out parking
Rideshare Rewards

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See
650 members share 23 vehicles
www.victoriacarshare.ca
9
Car Sharing

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Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicles owners earn
up to $300 a month

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Walk Bike
Food Help
Taxi
Skype
ParkRide share
Ski-lift
Maps
Ferry Fly
Car share
LRTTransit
Rail

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10 Smart Growth

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11
Electric Vehicles

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How Are We Using the Oil?
Cars & light trucks 40%
Heavy trucks 13%
Flying 8%
Shipping 2.5%
Asphalt 3%
Rail freight 1%
Recreational 1%
Military 1.5%
TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%
Non-transport uses 29%

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12
Freight

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Stronger Local Economies

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Electric freight train fuel economy up to
1500 ton-miles per gallon equivalent

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Huge rail capacity with the end of coal
Fossil Fuels = 77% of US freight

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Renault Radiance concept truck
20% more efficient, not electric
20% increase in freight eliminates the gain

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Earthfuture.com Electric Trucks

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Earthfuture.com Electric Trucks

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Cargohopper, for Urban Deliveries, Holland
3 tonnes max, 60 km range, 20 kph top speed.

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Cargohopper, for Urban Deliveries, Holland
3 tonnes max, 60 km range, 20 kph top speed.

146.
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Earthfuture.com Port of Los Angeles, full electric

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HEINEKEN, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Europe’s largest electric truck
19-tonnes truck, 9 tonnes load
200 kilometres range
Distributing Heineken® beers

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Seimens Electric Dump-Truck
Two 16-cylinder diesel engines, each with an output of
around 1,700 kW, drive four 1200 kW electric motors.
Being trialed in Siberia

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Siemens truck retro-fitted with diesel/electric
power train being trialed in Germany

150.
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Earthfuture.com Dutch concept Electric Trucks

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Mercedes future self-driving truck, Germany
On the market by 2025

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Biofuel
Farm and forest wastes
Sewage and urban organic wastes
Cultivated seaweed
Renewable fuel
Carbon monoxide and industrial wastes
Green hydrogen
Green methanol (hydrogen and waste CO2)

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Will there be enough?
Rocky Mountain Institute
With 84% fuel-saving potential, US demand
= 3.1 million barrels a day
US Dept. Agriculture
US farmland could sustainably provide dry
collectable biomass wastes
= 3 million barrels a day.

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Cargo-Cap
Ruhr University of Bochum
supported by the State of North Rhine-Westphalia.

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www.cargocap.com

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Double pipe: 3 million euros/kilometer
Urban highway: 13-15 million euros/kilometer
High-speed rail track: 15-18 million euros/kilometer

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Solar Electric Freight Tube
1994 US Federal Highway Administration study

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Solar Electric Freight Tube
1994 US Federal Highway Administration study

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Earthfuture.com Hamburg Autobahn, Germany

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Earthfuture.comShipping - 2.5% of global oil use

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Siemens Electric Car Ferry, Norway, 2015
20 minute route. 120 vehicles, 360 passengers

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80 meters long, two 450 kilowatts motors,
lithium-ion batteries
1,000 kilowatt-hours capacity

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Diesel-electric propulsion
Siemens Marine & Shipbuilding, Norway
On a three-day cruise, the Skandi Marstein used 35% less
energy than a diesel vessel.

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Solar Sailor
www.solarsailor.com

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9 MW solar panels
Retractable sails Self-unloading cargo bays
Superconducting power link
Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cells

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Flying:

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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.comFuture Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

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Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraft
Superconducting electric motors
Paris Airshow, 2011
Up to Mach 4. Paris to Tokyo in 2.5 hours

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EADS E-Thrust

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How Do We Get There?

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Community engagement x 20

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1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon
light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding
Most Important Federal Policies

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1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon
light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding
2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure
Most Important Federal Policies

195.
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1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon
light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding
2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure
3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit
Most Important Federal Policies

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1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon
light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding
2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure
3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit
4. The electrification of all railways
Most Important Federal Policies

197.
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1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon
light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding
2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure
3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit
4. The electrification of all railways
5. Generous incentives for electric vehicles
Most Important Federal Policies

198.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon
light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding
2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure
3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit
4. The electrification of all railways
5. Generous incentives for electric vehicles
6. A requirement that new cars and light trucks produce zero
grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2040
Most Important Federal Policies

199.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon
light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding
2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure
3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit
4. The electrification of all railways
5. Generous incentives for electric vehicles
6. A requirement that new cars and light trucks produce zero
grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2040
1. R&D funding for long-distance transportation solutions
Most Important Federal Policies

200.
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon
light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding
2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure
3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit
4. The electrification of all railways
5. Generous incentives for electric vehicles
6. A requirement that new cars and light trucks produce zero
grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2040
1. R&D funding for long-distance transportation solutions
2. The appointment of well-informed champions to the
relevant ministries and agencies.
Most Important Federal Policies

201.
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Together, we can change the world
If you feel inspired, join the BCSEA
www.bcsea.org/join

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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com