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Look - No Carbon! The Future of Transportation

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A comprehensive public presentation to the Victoria Chapter of the BC Sustainable Energy Association, January 19th, 2015.

The section on electric vehicles is deliberately blank, since Christina Ianniciello gave a separate presentation on EVs which can be found here: https://www.bcsea.org/sites/bcsea.org/files/2015-01-19-ianniciello-electric-vehicles.pdf

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Look - No Carbon! The Future of Transportation

  1. 1. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com LOOK – NO CARBON! The Future of Transportation BCSEA Victoria Chapter January 19, 2015
  2. 2. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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  4. 4. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com OUR ATMOSPHERE
  5. 5. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  6. 6. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The last time the world was 3°C warmer, the sea level was up to 25 metres higher
  7. 7. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The last time the world was 3°C warmer, the sea level was up to 25 metres higher We are currently on track for 4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer
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  16. 16. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Garth Lenz
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  18. 18. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Garth Lenz
  19. 19. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com For an 80% chance of not hitting 2°C Budget = 506 Gt of CO2 We produce 40 Gt a year A Global Carbon Budget
  20. 20. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com For an 80% chance of not hitting 2°C Budget = 506 Gt of CO2 We produce 40 Gt a year Nature takes 55% Atmosphere takes 45% 18 Gt is added to the atmosphere A Global Carbon Budget
  21. 21. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com For an 80% chance of not hitting 2°C Budget = 506 Gt of CO2 We produce 40 Gt a year Nature takes 55% Atmosphere takes 45% 18 Gt is added to the atmosphere Budget shrinks by 18 Gt a year Exhausted in 28 years A Global Carbon Budget
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  24. 24. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com How Are We Using the Oil? Cars & light trucks 40% Heavy trucks 13% Flying 8% Shipping 2.5% Asphalt 3% Rail freight 1% Recreational 1% Military 1.5% TOTAL TRANSPORT 71% Non-transport uses 29%
  25. 25. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Integrated Cost Analysis $ Cycling Transit Highways Rail $
  26. 26. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Integrated Governance Cycling Transit Highways Rail
  27. 27. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com  Carbon Taxes  Vehicle Feebates  Road tolls  Municipal taxes  General taxes  GST How can we pay for it?
  28. 28. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1 Pedestrian-Friendly Cities
  29. 29. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  30. 30. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Neighbourhood Walkability Audit www.walklive.org
  31. 31. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus
  32. 32. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  39. 39. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comPortland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org
  40. 40. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guywww.restreets.org
  41. 41. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guywww.restreets.org
  42. 42. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com www.restreets.org
  43. 43. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com www.restreets.org
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  54. 54. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Pedestrian Cities 1. Make it a Municipal priority 2. Organize Walking Audits 3. Build costs into the Transportation Budget
  55. 55. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 2 Cycling
  56. 56. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle
  57. 57. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com  Safe bike routes and intersections  Good bike parking  Cycling education in schools
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  59. 59. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Shanghai, China
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  62. 62. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com School at Assen, Holland
  63. 63. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com A Dutch Intersection
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  67. 67. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric Bicycles
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  71. 71. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cost: $24 million
  72. 72. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com $24 million 3,200 km of 1.5 metre bike lane 200 - 700 km of bike lane with road widening 240 km of separated bike lane
  73. 73. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com SHOVEL READY PROJECTS
  74. 74. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1. Make it a Municipal and Regional Priority 2. Build into Transportation Budgets 3. Complete the CRD Regional Pedestrian & Cycling Masterplan
  75. 75. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comCRD Pedestrian and Cycling Master Plan
  76. 76. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 3 Public Transit
  77. 77. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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  79. 79. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.
  80. 80. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces 95% less CO2 than diesel
  81. 81. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 100% Electric Buses
  82. 82. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Umea, Sweden Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day 10-20 kWh = 10 km
  83. 83. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
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  85. 85. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comWinnipeg 100% Electric Bus
  86. 86. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comChinese BYD electric bus, being made in America
  87. 87. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Flash charge electric bus, Hamburg, Germany
  88. 88. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Flash charge electric bus, China
  89. 89. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Flash charge electric bus, Geneva
  90. 90. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Vienna, Austria Europe’s first fleet of mass-produced, quick-charge, fully electric buses. (Seimens)
  91. 91. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Bus stop on Interurban Road, Victoria
  92. 92. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Fun with Bus Shelters
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  99. 99. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Real-time electronic bus stops
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  101. 101. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Hasselt, Belgium Free transit, included in city taxes 1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership
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  103. 103. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Malahat 30,000 vehicles a day
  104. 104. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comLuxury Long-Distance Coaches
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  107. 107. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com An extra $12 a day over the bus for convenience, productivity and comfort. Needed 25 regular customers.
  108. 108. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Road-pricing on the Malahat
  109. 109. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com $2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day 240 luxury coaches @ $10 a day + $10 6-8,000 passengers a day 25% reduced traffic
  110. 110. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Nantes, France 4 Bus Rapid Transit
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  113. 113. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comLight Rail Transit or Bus Rapid Transit?
  114. 114. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Light Rail Transit 5
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  116. 116. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Rail for the Valley
  117. 117. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Possible Victoria LRT Route
  118. 118. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Victoria: $62 million/km Calgary: $15 million/km Calgary bus: $1.50 a ride Calgary LRT: 27 cents a ride
  119. 119. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Besançon: $22 million/km
  120. 120. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric train + green electricity = zero carbon 6
  121. 121. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Electrostar battery-powered train. Being tested in UK on a 12-mile stretch at 65 miles per hour. 80,000 phosphate and hot sodium nickel salt batteries, each the size of a BIC lighter.
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  123. 123. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The E & N
  124. 124. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Railway or Bikeway?
  125. 125. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Railway or Bikeway?
  126. 126. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 7 Zero-Carbon Telework
  127. 127. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems
  128. 128. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 8 Ride-Sharing
  129. 129. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Real-time Ride-sharing
  130. 130. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guaranteed emergency ride home Cash-out parking Rideshare Rewards
  131. 131. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com See 650 members share 23 vehicles www.victoriacarshare.ca 9 Car Sharing
  132. 132. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing Vehicles owners earn up to $300 a month
  133. 133. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Walk Bike Food Help Taxi Skype ParkRide share Ski-lift Maps Ferry Fly Car share LRTTransit Rail
  134. 134. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 10 Smart Growth
  135. 135. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 11 Electric Vehicles
  136. 136. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com How Are We Using the Oil? Cars & light trucks 40% Heavy trucks 13% Flying 8% Shipping 2.5% Asphalt 3% Rail freight 1% Recreational 1% Military 1.5% TOTAL TRANSPORT 71% Non-transport uses 29%
  137. 137. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 12 Freight
  138. 138. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Stronger Local Economies
  139. 139. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Electric freight train fuel economy up to 1500 ton-miles per gallon equivalent
  140. 140. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Huge rail capacity with the end of coal Fossil Fuels = 77% of US freight
  141. 141. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Renault Radiance concept truck 20% more efficient, not electric 20% increase in freight eliminates the gain
  142. 142. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Electric Trucks
  143. 143. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Electric Trucks
  144. 144. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cargohopper, for Urban Deliveries, Holland 3 tonnes max, 60 km range, 20 kph top speed.
  145. 145. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cargohopper, for Urban Deliveries, Holland 3 tonnes max, 60 km range, 20 kph top speed.
  146. 146. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Port of Los Angeles, full electric
  147. 147. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com HEINEKEN, Rotterdam, Netherlands Europe’s largest electric truck 19-tonnes truck, 9 tonnes load 200 kilometres range Distributing Heineken® beers
  148. 148. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Seimens Electric Dump-Truck Two 16-cylinder diesel engines, each with an output of around 1,700 kW, drive four 1200 kW electric motors. Being trialed in Siberia
  149. 149. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Siemens truck retro-fitted with diesel/electric power train being trialed in Germany
  150. 150. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Dutch concept Electric Trucks
  151. 151. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Mercedes future self-driving truck, Germany On the market by 2025
  152. 152. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Biofuel Farm and forest wastes Sewage and urban organic wastes Cultivated seaweed Renewable fuel Carbon monoxide and industrial wastes Green hydrogen Green methanol (hydrogen and waste CO2)
  153. 153. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Will there be enough? Rocky Mountain Institute With 84% fuel-saving potential, US demand = 3.1 million barrels a day US Dept. Agriculture US farmland could sustainably provide dry collectable biomass wastes = 3 million barrels a day.
  154. 154. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cargo-Cap Ruhr University of Bochum supported by the State of North Rhine-Westphalia.
  155. 155. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com www.cargocap.com
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  164. 164. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Double pipe: 3 million euros/kilometer Urban highway: 13-15 million euros/kilometer High-speed rail track: 15-18 million euros/kilometer
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  168. 168. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Solar Electric Freight Tube 1994 US Federal Highway Administration study
  169. 169. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Solar Electric Freight Tube 1994 US Federal Highway Administration study
  170. 170. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Food Tubes, UK
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  172. 172. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Hamburg Autobahn, Germany
  173. 173. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Hamburg Autobahn, Germany
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  177. 177. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comShipping - 2.5% of global oil use
  178. 178. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Siemens Electric Car Ferry, Norway, 2015 20 minute route. 120 vehicles, 360 passengers
  179. 179. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 80 meters long, two 450 kilowatts motors, lithium-ion batteries 1,000 kilowatt-hours capacity
  180. 180. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Diesel-electric propulsion Siemens Marine & Shipbuilding, Norway On a three-day cruise, the Skandi Marstein used 35% less energy than a diesel vessel.
  181. 181. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com
  182. 182. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  183. 183. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 9 MW solar panels Retractable sails Self-unloading cargo bays Superconducting power link Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cells
  184. 184. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Flying:
  185. 185. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comFuture Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane
  186. 186. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  187. 187. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraft Superconducting electric motors Paris Airshow, 2011 Up to Mach 4. Paris to Tokyo in 2.5 hours
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  190. 190. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com EADS E-Thrust
  191. 191. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com How Do We Get There?
  192. 192. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Community engagement x 20
  193. 193. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding Most Important Federal Policies
  194. 194. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding 2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure Most Important Federal Policies
  195. 195. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding 2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure 3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit Most Important Federal Policies
  196. 196. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding 2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure 3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit 4. The electrification of all railways Most Important Federal Policies
  197. 197. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding 2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure 3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit 4. The electrification of all railways 5. Generous incentives for electric vehicles Most Important Federal Policies
  198. 198. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding 2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure 3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit 4. The electrification of all railways 5. Generous incentives for electric vehicles 6. A requirement that new cars and light trucks produce zero grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2040 Most Important Federal Policies
  199. 199. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding 2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure 3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit 4. The electrification of all railways 5. Generous incentives for electric vehicles 6. A requirement that new cars and light trucks produce zero grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2040 1. R&D funding for long-distance transportation solutions Most Important Federal Policies
  200. 200. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding 2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure 3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit 4. The electrification of all railways 5. Generous incentives for electric vehicles 6. A requirement that new cars and light trucks produce zero grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2040 1. R&D funding for long-distance transportation solutions 2. The appointment of well-informed champions to the relevant ministries and agencies. Most Important Federal Policies
  201. 201. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Together, we can change the world If you feel inspired, join the BCSEA www.bcsea.org/join
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  203. 203. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com

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