The document discusses the potential for a flourishing green economy without tar sands or pipelines. It outlines a vision of transitioning to renewable energy sources like solar and wind power across various sectors of the economy, including transportation, buildings, and infrastructure. Specific strategies proposed include increasing rates of walking, cycling, public transit, electric vehicles, and telecommuting to reduce oil dependence and transition to a sustainable economy.

1. YES!
A Flourishing Green Economy
Without Tar Sands or Pipelines
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TEN MINUTES,
FIVE THOUGHTS
1 2 3
4 5

3. 1
The power
of our vision
must be stronger than
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the power
of our fears

4. The Skeptic’s Fear of Life without Oil
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5. “The future belongs to those who believe
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in the beauty of their dreams.”
― Eleanor Roosevelt
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6. So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?
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?

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Two Possible
Futures
One YES
One NO

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Which path
will you
take?
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12. Saying YES
as well as NO
Solar, Wind, Wave
100% Renewables
Green Buildings
Green Cities
Cycling
Electric Transit
Electric Cars
Carsharing
Organic Farming
EcoForestry
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Green Chemistry
Biomimicry
Smart Tech
Education
Innovation
Software
Robotics
3-D Printing
Soul & Eco-Tourism
Holistic Healthcare

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14. THE CLIMATE CRISIS…
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Think Globally,
VOTE
LOCALLY
On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections
BRING IT HOME

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16. 2
We don’t need to vilify fossil fuels.
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We can praise them,
and then say
“Enough!”

17. For 500,000 years, we harvested the
Sun’s energy through firewood
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18. For 300 years, we have been harvesting
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it through fossil fuels

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It was fossil fuels
that launched the Industrial Age,
and the modern world.

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It is solar energy
expressed through fossil fuels
that has made advanced engineering,
solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

21. The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the essential
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LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
500,000 years
Firewood
300 years
Fossil Fuels
1,750,000,000 years
Solar Energy

22. For the next 1,750,000,000 years, we will
be able to harvest the Sun’s energy
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directly through advanced
solar technologies

23. The Age of
Firewood
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The Age of
Fossil Fuels
The Solar Age

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Price of Solar PV
per Watt
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
A hundredfold fall
in the price of solar PV
since 1977

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100 GW
in 2012
Solar PV 7000% increase
since 2000
137 GW
in 2013

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27. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.Kcomagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

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29. More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour
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than humans use in a year.

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31. The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
A billion years
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
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32. The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
A billion years
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
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and fall in price.

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34. By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW solar
could lose its owner up to $1,000 a year
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36. By 2020, every commercial roof that is not
solar could lose its owner $10,000 a year
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37. Guy Dauncey 2014
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38. T-Sou’ke Chief Gordon Planes:
“First Nations have lived for thousands of years on this
continent without fossil fuels. It is appropriate that First
Nations lead the way out of dependency and addiction to
fossil fuels and to rely on the power of the elements, the sun,
the wind and the sea once again.”
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Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

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Solar railway
Paris to
Amsterdam

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Mass production = falling prices

43. BC, 2014: 4 kW PV System $16,000 + tax
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4,400 kWh year

44. Solar Economics in BC, 2020
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4 kW PV system
15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
Cash down
Cost per kW $1,600
4 kW + 5% tax $6,720
kWh per year 4,400
25 year savings $25,600
Profit +$19,000

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C
3
We Need to
Change the Game
from Defence
To Offense

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solutions
will build

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solutions
will build
! !!! ! !

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52. Guy Dauncey 2014
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54. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Natural gas:
5 jobs per $1 million
Solar:
14.5 jobs per
$1 million
Building Retrofits:
17 jobs per $1 million
Mass Transit:
22 jobs per $1 million

56. creating demand and jobs worth $1,000 in value.
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$100 spent on renewable energy
may circulate and be spent
10 times before it leaves the country,
$100 spent on imported oil
$70 leaves the country
$22 goes to the oil company
$3 to the credit card company, $8 to the gas station
owner.

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If the $90 trillion expected
to be invested in global
infrastructure in the next 15
years is done in a low-carbon
manner, it could
“cost about the same as
conventional
infrastructure, but deliver
significantly greater
economic, social, and
environmental benefits in
the long-run.”
www.newclimateeconomy.report

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“After a year of hard work we
reached a clear conclusion:
“Yes, it’s possible to have better
growth and better climate;
“Yes, it’s possible to create jobs,
improve the economy, and
reduce emissions;
“Yes, it’s possible to make these
fundamental changes.”
www.newclimateeconomy.report

59. $100B invested in wind or solar
will produce more energy than oil
- Kepler Chevreux, French investment bank,
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September 2014

60. EROCI = energy return on capital invested
By 2020, all renewable technologies have a
significantly superior net EROCI to oil
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at both $100 and $125 a barrel.
By 2035, solar will produce double the energy of oil
for the same money. For onshore wind, the net
energy will outstrip oil by nearly 6:1.

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Reality Check
The Rapid Progress
of Renewables…?
Barry Saxifrage, May 2014

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Reality Check
Barry Saxifrage, May 2014

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The BEST future economy
will be a green sustainable economy
with far less use of fossil fuels.
Leaving 80% of the fossil fuels
in the ground will create
a better economy.
In a nutshell…

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For light transport,
we can have
Transportation without Oil
and the economy will keep going
4

65. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Istanbul,
Turkey

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Seoul, South Korea

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The Highline
Converted Railway,
New York

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Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux
Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio

75. London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames
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Thomas Heatherwick

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77. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com 15% trip shift to cycling

78. In Holland, cycling is the main mode of
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transport for 31% of the people

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82. Guy Dauncey 2014
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83. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Granville Street Bridge
Vancouver’s Imagined Future

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Electric Bikes

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91. Guy Dauncey 2014
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94. Guy Dauncey 2014
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OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

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Mulhouse, Germany

98. Guy Dauncey 2014
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99. Four people in Beijing
Five people in Vancouver
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100. 5% Trip Shift to Ride-Sharing
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101. See
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Shift to Car Sharing

102. Vehicle owners
can earn up to
$300 a month
www.relayrides.com
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103. North America car-sharing forecast
4.4 million users by 2016
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David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan

104. Sustainable urban design for walking,
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cycling and transit

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107. Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed
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108. Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed
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109. Fast, dangerous streets being slowed
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110. Fast, dangerous streets being slowed
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111. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Vehicles

112. Top
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Hiroko EV

113. Top
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114. Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
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115. Tesla Model X: 300-400 km range
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Nissan Leaf Electric Pick-Up
D-I-Y Conversion

117. Honda solar electric car charging
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119. No tax, saving $4,000.
Annual driving fee 7 x cheaper than a regular car.
No parking charges anywhere in Norway.
No ferry charges, no road tolls around Oslo.
Allowed to drive in the bus lanes.
Free municipal EV recharging.
Electricity $10 a week vs $55 for a regular car.
Overall savings $369 a month.
21 models to choose from.
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120. The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
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121. Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% shift to cycling = 80% …
15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …
5% shift to telework = 60% …
5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …
5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …
50% vehicles hybrid EV = 30% …
50% of vehicles electric = 5% …
Lightweight design 50% = 2.5% …
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100% vehicles EVs = 0.0%

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www.bcsea.org

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124. Long Distance Electric Freight
Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck
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Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg
Super-efficient designs 9 mpg

125. Long Distance Electric Freight
With difficulty: EV Trucks not ready.
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Biofuels questionable.
Hydrogen not happening.

126. With difficulty: and a long way off
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127. With difficulty: and a long way off
Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane
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128. BEYOND CAPITALISM…
A Flourishing Green Co-operative Economy 5
Benefit Corporations
Green Business Certification
Public Banking
Basic Income
Values-Based Banking
Microlending
Community Currencies
An Entrepreneurial State
Green Bonds
The Sharing Economy
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Carbon Taxes
Genuine Progress Indicators
Local Business Synergy
Cooperatives
Youth Businesses & Coops
First Nations Businesses
Minority Businesses
Serious Tax Reform
Closure of Tax Havens
Targeted Growth vs no-growth

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$10
Special
Price

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Fall
2014

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132. www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
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Dream it
Wish it
Do it

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Josephine Wall
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www.josephinewall.co.uk

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