A New Green Economy

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
A New Green Economy

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
When you think about
the future of our world, what do you feel?

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
HOPE
WORRY
or
?

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The power of our vision

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
than the power of our fears
The power of our vision

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
English Bay, Vancouver, April 16, 2015

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com©Smithore Dreamstime.com

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Burning fossil fuels and
destroying Earth’s forests

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Arctic Sea Ice Decline

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The left map shows temperatures of 40 below zero moving
down from the Arctic, while much of Alaska is above freezing
point.
The right map shows temperature anomalies for Feb 19 to 26,
2015.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
“The Blob”
April 2014

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
“The Blob”
April 2015

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
If global warming exceeds
1.6°C
up to
31%
of Earth’s species
will be committed to
extinction,
having nowhere to go
to escape the rising heat

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Wake up everybody!
400 ppm in February 2015
“Such CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have
likely not been seen since at least the end of the
Oligocene, 23 million years ago.”
– Scientific American

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
A: Burning Earth’s fossil fuels
B: Destroying Earth’s forests

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
GDP =
Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
70%
OF CANADIANS SUPPORT MOVING TO A
SYSTEM OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
2°C

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
2°C is the boundary between
‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’
James Hansen,
NASA Chief Climate Scientist
2°C is the boundary between
‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’
James Hansen,
NASA Chief Climate Scientist

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
for a 75% chance
that the global temperature will not rise by 2°C
The 2015
Global Carbon Budget
493
Gigatonnes of CO2

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Canada’s 2015
CO2 emissions
500Megatonnes of CO2

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Canada’s total
Carbon Budget
6,000
Mt of CO2

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Canada’s
Annual CO2 Reduction
25
Mt of CO2

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
25 Mt CO2 reduction

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Zero
By 2040

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The Race to Zero
Carbon
The Race to Zero
Carbon

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
is the Race to
100% Renewable
Energy
is the Race to
100% Renewable
Energy

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
$10
Special
Price

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia
BCSEA 2013
www.bcsea.org

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Our vision
is a sustainable
future in which
all of BC’s
energy
is green and
renewable.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
“The future belongs to those who believe
in the beauty of their dreams.”
― Eleanor Roosevelt

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Two Possible Futures

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
One Rational Choice

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
We don’t need to vilify fossil
fuels. We can praise them, and
then say “Enough!”

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
For 300,000 years, we harvested
the Sun’s energy through firewood

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
For 300 years, we have harvested
it from fossil fuels

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
It was fossil fuels
that launched the Industrial Age
and the modern world.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
It is fossil fuels
that have made advanced engineering,
solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The Age of Fossil Fuels is the necessary
LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
30,000 years
Firewood
300 years
Fossil Fuels
A billion years
Solar Energy

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The Age of
Firewood
The Age of
Fossil Fuels
The Solar Age

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
and fall in price.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Sunmine, Kimberley, BC. 1.05 MW, 4,000 solar modules
www.sunmine.ca

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
SALT SPRING’S SOLAR PRIDE
84 PV panels, 21 kw system installed on
Gulf Islands Secondary School, Salt Spring

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
Price of Solar PV
per Watt
A hundredfold fall
in the price of solar PV
since 1977

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Mass production = falling prices

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
100 GW
in 2012
Solar PV 140-fold increase
since 2000
200 GW
in 2014

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.comKagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Williston Lake, Northern BC
438,000 acres

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Floating Solar on 10% of Williston Lake
could generate 5,500 GWh a year
= 500,000 households

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour
than humans use in a year.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW solar
could lose its owner up to $1,000 a year

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
10 kw system, $2.60 a watt

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
By 2020, every commercial roof that is not
solar could lose its owner $10,000 a year

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Solar railway
Paris to
Amsterdam

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Prince Rupert 3,200 kwh
Skidegate 3,757 kwh
Terrace 4,120 kwh
Prince George 4,180 kwh
Victoria BC 4,480 kwh
Vancouver 4,430 kwh
Kelowna 5,000 kwh
Kimberley, BC 5,390 kwh
Calgary 5,390 kwh
Medicine Hat, AB 5,546 kwh
Seville, Spain 6,000 kwh
Phoenix, Arizona 6,919 kwh
Saudi Arabia 6,940 kwh
How much electricity will a
4 kw solar PV system deliver a year?

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
T-Sou’ke First Nation
Vancouver Island

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
T-Sou’ke
Chief Gordon Planes:
“First Nations have lived
for thousands of years
on this continent
without fossil fuels.
It is appropriate that
First Nations
lead the way out
of dependency and
addiction to fossil fuels
and rely on the power
of the elements,
the sun, the wind
and the sea once again.”

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com T’Sou-ke Nation Solar Project

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
“We have a strong desire
to re-establish our identity
and develop our community resilience
to provide a safe, nurturing world
with opportunities for our children
and grandchildren.”

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
$100B invested in wind or solar
will produce more energy than oil
- Kepler Chevreux, French investment bank,
September 2014

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Bear Mountain Wind Farm, Tumbler Ridge, BC.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The Proposed Site C Dam
on the Peace River
Big hydro – or wind, solar and geothermal?

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
www.thesolutionsproject.org

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
For local transportation,
we can have
Transportation without Oil
and the economy will keep going

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.comMake walking fun and joyful

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Istanbul,
Turkey

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Seoul, South Korea

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Highline
Converted Railway,
New York

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux
Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames
Thomas Heatherwick

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com More cycling

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
In Holland, cycling is the main mode of
transport for 31% of the people

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com San Francisco Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com Vancouver Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Granville Street Bridge
Vancouver’s Imagined Future

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Electric Bikes

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The Copenhagen Wheel

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.comSolar electric bike, top speed 48 km/hr

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.comSolar Bike Lane, Holland

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com Cycling on the Solar Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Solar Bike Lane in Korea – 32 kilometres

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com Better Local Transit

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com Shift to Telework

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Cisco Systems
Four people in Ottawa
Five people in Kelowna

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
More Safe Community
Ride-Sharing

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
See
More Car Sharing

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicle owners
can earn up to
$300 a month
www.relayrides.com

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
North America car-sharing forecast
4.4 million users by 2016
David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Sustainable urban design for walking,
cycling and transit

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
www.restreets.org
Fast, dangerous streets being slowed

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com More Electric Vehicles

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Top
Hiroko EV

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Top

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Tesla Model X: 300-400 km range

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Hybrid Trucks
VIA Motors V-Trux

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
More Hybrid Trucks
GM Silverado
GM Sierra

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Nissan Leaf Electric Pick-Up
D-I-Y Conversion

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Remember this?

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Coming soon: The Volkswagen
Electric Camper Van

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Honda solar electric car charging

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
No tax, saving $4,000.
Annual driving fee 7 x cheaper than a regular car.
No parking charges anywhere in Norway.
No ferry charges, no road tolls around Oslo.
Allowed to drive in the bus lanes.
Free municipal EV recharging.
Electricity $10 a week vs $55 for a regular car.
Overall savings $369 a month.
21 models to choose from.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Sales of Electric Vehicles in Norway

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
$5,000 for a
new EV
+ $3,250 for
a clunker
trade-in

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Falling prices for battery packs may cause a
surge in electric car sales
TechExplore.com

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Siemens ZeroCat all-electric car ferry, Norway
120 cars +360 passengers
10 minutes recharge, 30-minute trip
800 kw, 400 kw battery bank. 10 knots

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
WE CAN ACHIEVE
90%
HEAT ENERGY
REDUCTION
IN NEW HOMES

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.comUp to $600 for low-income attic insulation
Rolling in the Pink

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Saving Energy – Happy to be a HERO
Up to $1,000 for basement insulation

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Solar Air Source Heat Pump

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Geothermal
Ground-source
Geo-exchange
Heat Pump

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Solar, Wind, Wave
100% Renewables
Green Buildings
Green Cities
Cycling
Electric Transit
Electric Cars
Carsharing
Organic Farming
EcoForestry
Green Chemistry
Biomimicry
Smart Tech
Education
Innovation
Software
Robotics
3-D Printing
Soul & Eco-Tourism
Holistic Healthcare
Saying YES
to a New Green Economy

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
September 2014

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Canada, population 35 million
500
6.6 73,000 26,000
Canada-wide
1.75
A very approximate sense of Canada’s gain
blog.floridaenergycenter.org

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Cumulative installed solar PV capacity: Global

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Cumulative installed wind capacity: Global

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Projected renewables share of global primary energy
demand: All renewable energy sources

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Natural gas:
5 jobs per $1 million
Solar:
14.5 jobs per
$1 million
Building Retrofits:
Mass Transit:

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Canada supports 18 million jobs
4.4% are via fossil fuels
95% are not via fossil fuels

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Jobs related to fossil fuels
All other jobs

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Fossil Fuel Jobs, Canada 2015
Direct Jobs Indirect Jobs Induced Jobs
257,000 298,000 244,000
100% Renewable Energy Jobs, 2015 - 2040
Solar 59,500 45,000 42,000
Wind 17,000 13,000 12,000
Geothermal 8,500 6,000 6,000
Buildings 49,000 31,000 28,000
Cycling 25% trips 312,000 103,000 103,000
Transit 214,000 71,000 71,000
Electric Vehicles 0 0 14,000
Rail Electrification 8,000 6,000 6,000
Organic Farming 98,000 0 27,000
TOTAL 766,000 275,000 309,000
Preliminary non-reviewed research
Guy Dauncey, BCSEA, April 2015

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Coal, Oil and
Gas, 2015
100% Renewable Energy,
2015-2040
Direct Jobs 257,000 766,000
Indirect Jobs 298,000 275,000
Induced Jobs 244,000 309,000
TOTAL 799,000 1,350,000
Preliminary non-reviewed research
Guy Dauncey, BCSEA, April 2015
Fossil Fuels vs 100% Renewable Energy
How to the jobs compare?
Over the next 25 years, as Canada makes the
transition to 100% renewable energy, there could be
70% more energy-related jobs
than there are fossil-fuel jobs today.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The BEST future economy
will be a green sustainable economy
with far less use of fossil fuels.
Leaving 80% of the fossil fuels
in the ground will create
a better economy.
In a nutshell…

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Benefit Corporations
Green Business Certification
Public Banking
Basic Income
Values-Based Banking
Microlending
Community Currencies
An Entrepreneurial State
Green Bonds
A Sharing Economy
Carbon Taxes
Genuine Progress Indicators
Local Business Synergy
Cooperatives
Youth Businesses & Coops
First Nations Businesses
Minority Businesses
Serious Tax Reform
Closure of Tax Havens
Targeted Growth vs no-
growth
BEYOND CAPITALISM…
A Flourishing Green Co-operative Economy

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Sixteen Building Blocks
of a Green, Entrepreneurial, Cooperative
Economy

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The transition from a capitalist
to a cooperative economy
could be one of the defining achievements
of the 21st
century.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Capitalism was built over time, block by block…

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The
Market
system

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Private
Property
Ownership
The
Market
system

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Banking
Private
Property
Ownership
The
Market
system

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Banking
Private
Property
Ownership
The
Market
system
Contract Law

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Limited Liability
Banking
Private
Property
Ownership
The
Market
system
Contract Law

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Limited Liability
Banking
Private
Property
Ownership
The
Market
system
Double Entry
Book KeepingContract Law

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Limited Liability
Banking
Private
Property
Ownership
The
Market
system
Tax Havens
Double Entry
Book KeepingContract Law

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Limited Liability
Banking
Private
Property
Ownership
The
Market
system
Tax Havens
Double Entry
Book Keeping
Credit
Cards
Contract Law

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
We will build the Green Entrepreneurial Cooperative
Economy in the same way: Block by Block

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Entrepreneurial
State

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Regional Business
Networks
Entrepreneurial
State

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Regional Business
Networks
Help with
Business
Start-Ups
Entrepreneurial
State

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Regional Business
Networks
Help with
Business
Start-Ups
Entrepreneurial
State
100%
Renewable
Energy
Regions

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Regional Business
Networks
Cooperatives Support Networks
Help with
Business
Start-Ups
Entrepreneurial
State
100%
Renewable
Energy
Regions

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Regional Business
Networks
Help with
Business
Start-Ups
Entrepreneurial
State
100%
Renewable
Energy
Regions
Green
Business
Certification

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Public Banking
Regional Business
Networks
Help with
Business
Start-Ups
Entrepreneurial
State
100%
Renewable
Energy
Regions
Green
Business
Certification

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Public Banking
Regional Business
Networks
Help with
Business
Start-Ups
Community Development
Corporations
Entrepreneurial
State
100%
Renewable
Energy
Regions
Green
Business
Certification

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Public Banking
Regional Business
Networks
Help with
Business
Start-Ups
Corporations
Benefit
Corporations
Entrepreneurial
State
100%
Renewable
Energy
Regions
Green
Business
Certification

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Public Banking
Regional Business
Networks
Help with
Business
Start-Ups
Corporations
Benefit
Corporations
Entrepreneurial
State
100%
Renewable
Energy
Regions
Genuine Progress Indicators
Green
Business
Certification

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
9.4
m
201
1
4.5m
NDP LIB
2.8m
OTHER
1.6M
CON
5.8m

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Conservatives 62% YES
Liberals 77% YES
New Democrats 82% YES
Green Party 93% YES
OF CANADIANS SUPPORT MOVING TO A
SYSTEM OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Dream it
Wish it
Do it

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
If you want to make a difference,
now would be a great time to do so.

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The visions we
offer our
children shape
the future.
It matters what
those visions
are.
Carl Sagan

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
The whole future of the Earth
seems to depend on the awakening of
our faith in the future.
- Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia
BCSEA 2013
www.bcsea.org
www.bcsea.org

Guy Dauncey 2015
Earthfuture.com
BCSEA 2013
www.bcsea.org
Why not join us, and become a Member?
www.bcsea.org/join

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