Getting to Net Zero - for Everything

Guy Dauncey
Seattle
November 13, 2015

FOR EVERYTHING –
Electricity, Transport,
Buildings

1. The climate crisis is urgent and real

2.
We must
change our
future story
from negative
to positive,
from worry and
fear to
determination
and hope.

3. The fundamental solution is to get to
100% renewable energy
as quickly as we possibly can.

Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan
4. The challenge is huge, but it’s
mostly achievable

5. We will need the best policies, taxes,
initiatives and regulations to help us get there.

We will also need our very best leaders
Nov 3, 2015

Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

The current increase in global warming is
"...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima
atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s
how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.”
- James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

Washington State Forest Fires
Summer 2015

The last time the world was 3°C warmer
the sea level was 25 metres higher

2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres

The Shanghai region facing + 2° C and + 4° C
temperature increase

Tianjin (near Beijing) facing + 2° C and + 4° C
temperature increase. Population 7 million.

Vancouver, BC, facing + 2° C and + 4° C
temperature increase

To what extent do you agree or disagree?
“The climate change we are currently seeing is
largely the result of human activity.”
IPSOS/MORI
2014

“The climate change we are currently seeing is
largely the result of human activity.”
IPSOS/MORI
2014

“We are heading for an environmental disaster
unless we change our habits quickly.”
IPSOS/MORI
2014

2.
We must
change our
future story
from negative
to positive,
from
fear and worry
to hope and
determination.

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
HOPE
WORRY
or
?

Let’s put fossil fuels in their historical context

For more than 300,000 years, we have
harvested the Sun’s energy using firewood

For the past 300 years, we have been
harvesting it from ancient fossil fuels

It was fossil fuels
that launched the Industrial Age,
and the whole modern world.

It is fossil fuels
that have made advanced engineering,
solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

We should not vilify fossil fuels.
We should thank them, and then say
“It’s time to move on.”

The Age of Fossil Fuels has been
THE LAUNCH RAMP

A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

A billion years
And with every passing year,
solar technologies will improve
and fall in price.
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
CO2 reduction

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
renewable energy
increase

2°C is the boundary between
‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’
James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

for a 75% chance
that the global temperature will not rise by 2°C
The 2015
Global Carbon Budget
493Gigatonnes of CO2

Austin Texas:
“As soon as
we can, but no
later than
2050.”

INDC =
Intended Nationally
Determined Contribution

4. The challenge is mostly achievable

1. 100% of our electricity from renewable energy
THE SEVEN BIG CHALLENGES

2. 100% of our transportation from renewables

3. 100% of our building heat from renewables

4. 100% of industrial heat from renewables

5. To end deforestation across the world

6. To eat much less red meat

6. To store carbon in forests and farms
7. To eat much less red meat
8. For the whole planet
THE EIGHT BIG CHALLENGES

1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
Price of
Solar Module
per Watt
The Solar Revolution is
Happening

Natural gas fuel cost projections, 2015-2040
Solar PV purchase agreements, 2015-2040

100 GW
in 2012
Solar PV 140-fold increase
since 2000
200 GW
in 2014

Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK

Solar railway
Paris to Amsterdam
16,000 panels
3.4 kilometres
3,300 MWh a year

Solar panels on the roof of greenhouses growing
mushrooms Neihuang county, Henan province, China
Reuters

Egypt: 7 million vehicles
= 2 million tonnes of CO2 a year

7 million ELECTRIC vehicles
If each travels 10,000 km a year
Average 20 kwh per 100 km
= 14,000 GWh a year

Solar in the Middle East
85 sq km = 14,000 GWh/year

Egypt = 1 million sq km
Solar PV for
7 million vehicles
= 85 sq km

Egypt = 1 million sq km
.Solar PV for
7 million vehicles
= 85 sq km

Planned Ouarzazate Solar Thermal Plant
Morocco

Palouse Wind Project, Washington State

TRANSPORTATION
Plan to shift all modes of transport
to 100% renewable energy

Transportation without Oil
A Vision of the Future

This used to be full of traffic
Times Square, New York

This used to be a highway
Seoul, South Korea

stephanekirkland.com
Place de la République, Paris 2006
This used to be a traffic chaos

This used to be the Alaska Way Viaduct…

This used to be six lanes of busy traffic

This used to be rusty old railway line

In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement
is by bicycle

Safe protected bike lane, San Francisco

The Hovenring Bicycle Bridge, Holland
Connects Eindhoven and Veldhoven

Future Bloor St Bike Route, Toronto

Granville Street Future Bridge
Vancouver

Australia’s Brightbus: 625 miles range

China – Fast-Charging Electric Bus

Los Angeles BYD Articulated Electric Bus
170 miles range

Top
Hiroko – 120 km (62 miles) range

Smart Electric – 135 km range
84 miles

Nissan Leaf – 120 km range- 75 miles

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Mitsubishi MiEV- 150 km range
93 miles

Tesla Model X: 250 miles range

The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
2018

Estimates of costs of lithium batteries in
electric vehicles

From 2025, all BMWs to be electric

BMW 100% electric truck, Germany

Norway’s Electric Ferry ZeroCat
5.7 km route, 20 minute round trip

Long-Distance Trucking: nothing ready yet

Long-Distance Shipping : nothing ready yet

Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet

Planned Zero Carbon Energy Center
Wuhan, China
BUILDINGS

THREE HUGE CHALLENGES
1. All new buildings need to be zero-carbon
2. All existing buildings need to be retrofitted to
become zero-carbon
3. New District Heat networks need to be built that
use renewable energy

The 2030 Challenge and the AIA 2030 Commitment
have been adopted by:
• 70% of world’s top 20 A/E/P firms
• 52% of all US architecture firms
• The AIA
• The USGBC
• The US Conference of Mayors
• The US Federal Government
• The White House
• National Governors Association
• Washington, Illinois, California, Minnesota
• and many others

Passive House LEED
Living Building ChallengeNet Zero Energy

Passive House Institute US
www.phius.org
Passive House construction reduces
conventional heat load by 90% and overall
energy by up to 70%.

Passive House, Victoria, B.C.
90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2, 4.4% more cost
www.bernhardtpassive.com

Heating used 12.5 kWh/(m2.a) in first year
compared to the design value of 15 kWh/(m2.a).
Conventional designs use 12 x more.
Passive House Indoor Tennis Hall,
Vaxjo, Sweden

Eight-storey wood-framed Passive Buildings
Vaxjo, Sweden

Passive House in Santa Cruz, California

The largest Passive House building in the
world: the “RHW.2” in Vienna

Optimize Energy Performance:
6% performance improvement = 1 point
50% performance improvement (max) = 18 points

Annual Energy Use:
1% performance improvement = 1 point
90% performance improvement (max) = 29 points

By 2050: 5,700 a year
3% a year
Building Retrofits
Seattle
655,000 people
200,000+ buildings?
By 2030: 13,500 a year
7% a year
By 2040: 8,000 a year
4% a year

Germany plans to improve
the energy efficiency renovation rate
of its existing building stock
from 1% to 2%, and later to 3% per year.

Six Sources of Renewable Heat
Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat
Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator Dog-source heat

“Honey, what on Earth
are they doing to our
lawn?”

Geothermal Radial Drilling
From Austria www.tracto-technik.com

“Oh my, do you
fancy a coffee
when you’re
done?”

Ocean-source heat
Brentwood College, Mill Bay, BC

The aquathermal buildings use
25% of the energy used by
the other buildings.
13 months to pay for themselves.

The loops lie 30 feet deep in Saanich Inlet, covering
1,000 square feet. Stainless steel exchangers
provided a $250,000 savings compared to the cost of
traditional heat exchangers.

Stokmarknes Hospital, Norway: thermal energy
from the ocean provides nearly 90% of the heat

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.
Solar Thermal District Heat

800 solar hot water panels on the garages
90% of residential space heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C). www.dlsc.ca

The Energy Centre
Community solar heat
panels
Solar hot water
panels
Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.com
Solar heating throughout the cold
Alberta winter

BedZed, London, 1990. Biomass District Heat. Failed to work – now
natural gas. The wood chip gasifier had reliability problems due to
technical problems and an imposed no late-night operation rule.
Biomass District Heat

In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat
from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments
Sewer-Source District Heat

Vancouver South-East False Creek
Sewer-Source District Heat

Pre-insulated piping used to heat most homes and
commercial buildings in Scandinavia.
Delivery of hot water at 200o C to customers up to 23 km
away, net loss of only a few degrees.

Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero
100% solar district heat + 23.4 MWth solar thermal storage
+ Biomass cogeneration plant
Stored Solar District Heat

Marstal Solar Heat Storage Tank, Denmark

Solar Thermal Heat Storage Tank

Surrey, BC, Canada
Planned District Heat:
• Industrial Waste Heat
• Sewer Heat Recovery
• Geo-Exchange
• Solar Thermal Heat
• Refrigeration Heat
Recovery
• Biomass/Woodwaste
• District Heat
• CHP
Hybrid Renewable District Heat

5. We will need the best policies, taxes,
incentives and regulations to help us get there.

Passive Building Regulations In Europe
www.passivehouse-international.org
Crossway Passive House, Kent, England

European Union Legislation
By 2019, all new public buildings nearly Net Zero
By 2021, all new buildings nearly Net Zero

Freiburg, Germany
Since 2011 the Passive House standard has been mandatory.

Hamburg, Germany
Since 2012, municipal funding for new housing projects granted
exclusively to Passive Houses.

District of Lippe
All new buildings to Passive House Standard.
Also applied when retrofitting existing buildings.
Indoor swimming pool, Lunen, Lippe

Hanover
300 terraced houses, semi-detached and detached SF houses being
built to PH Standard.
1998

Cologne
Since 2010, all new buildings in Cologne must be designed under the
Passive House concept

Brussels
All buildings and retrofits to be Nearly-Zero Energy
by the end of 2015
based on the Passive House Standard.

Since 2015, every new building must be built
to passivhaus standards.
Conversion of a 1930s vintage office building into condos
MDW Architecture

Renovation and Part-New Construction of Former Brewery
to Offices and Hotel by Architects l’Escaut

Mixed New Build and retrofit Passive House Apartment
Building by A2M

Passive House Childcare Project by A2M

Brussels took a top down approach with its legislation, but gained
support from the base by implementing incentives starting in 2010 to
help builders and designers get on track, including a $12/SF incentive
for exemplary high-performance buildings.
90% of the grant was given to the owners, 10% to the design team to
encourage innovation.
“If it’s not smart, beautiful, and inspiring, the Passive House
movement could not take off. ” - Joke Dockx, Director for Energy at the
Brussels Institute for Management of the Environment
By 2015, Brussels had 15 million sq. ft. of Passive House space.
Brussels
Belgium

Total energy consumption
Total GHGs
Employment
Population

The PassREg project ended
in April 2015.
All the deliverables,
important best practices
and related resources can
be found here:
www.passreg.eu

San Francisco
Includes projects that aim for Passive House or EnerPHit certification
in their list of options for fast-track planning approval.

Marin County, CA
The applicable green building rating system shall be that
which is most recently adopted by Build It Green, the U.S.
Green Building Council or the Passive House Institute.

New York City
To dramatically reduce GHGs from buildings city-wide by
2050, New York will look to “Passive House, carbon neutral,
or `zero net energy’ strategies to inform the standards.”
New York Times

State of Pennsylvania
Incentives for Passive House compliance of multi-family
buildings. Under Energy Efficiency Goals, Passive House is
the only standard listed: “The development meets/will meet
Passive House Certification for energy efficiency.”

Vancouver 100% Renewable Energy City

Vancouver’s Zero-Emissions Building (ZEB) Priorities
• All new buildings to be zero-emission by 2030
• Demonstrate ZEB standards in new City buildings
• Ensure rezoning policy leads the transition to ZEBs
• Incentivize and streamline the development of ZEBs
• Establish + enforce GHG intensity limits for new dev’t
• Develop innovative financing tools to help fund new ZEBs
• Establish partnerships to build industry capacity
• Mandate building energy benchmarking and labeling

Vancouver 100% Renewable Energy City
Zero-Emissions Building Priorities
Retrofit existing buildings to perform like new construction
• Mandate energy efficiency improvements for existing buildings
• Provide flexibility to achieve energy efficiency requirements
through the support of on-site generation or neighbourhood energy
system connection

The climate crisis is urgent and real

We must
change our
future story
from negative
to positive,
from worry and
fear to
determination
and hope.

The fundamental solution is to get to
100% renewable energy
as quickly as we possibly can.

The challenge is huge, but it’s mostly
achievable

We’ll also need the best
local leadership

“The thing always
happens that you really
believe in; and the belief
in a thing makes it
happen.” - Frank Lloyd
Wright

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.co
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com

Getting to Net Zero - for Everything

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