ICIS webinar - Price sensitivity analysis with neural networksICIS
The power markets are full of what if’s. The impact of renewable generation on spot power prices has naturally generated a great deal of volatility in the markets. Inputs and assumptions such as power demand, changing weather forecasts, and available capacities are just some of the key drivers that help predict the price of power. But what if there is more wind generation than expected? What happens if demand for power turns out to be stronger than anticipated?
While uncertainties in the market cannot be eliminated, they can be identified, quantified and their impact assessed on positions and portfolios. The goal of this webinar is to explain how Neural Networks power price models can help to assess the sensitivities that can impact spot prices in the German day ahead market and how you can use this to your advantage.
V SIMPOSIO EMPRESARIAL INTERNACIONAL FUNSEAM: LOS RETOS DEL SECTOR ENERGÉTICO
CLAUSURA
Presentación
D. Antonio Brufau, Presidente de Repsol
Conferencia de clausura
La regulación en la consecución de los Retos Energéticos: el papel de ACER: D. Alberto Pototschnig, Director de ACER
Albania toward large and sustainable energy developments by lorenc gordaniLorenc Gordani
This presentation, based to my daily empirical experience, concentrates an assessment about the huge interest for the foreigner investors on the business opportunities offered in ongoing by the traditional hydropower source and the emerging energy sectors of photovoltaic, wind, biomasses, natural gas, efficiency and managing, energy trading and supply, etc.
Further, it will follow with a brief analysis of the catalogue of legal procedures framework to obtain the permission rights and develop a project in energy infrastructure production. The all will be present as much as possible in a simple manner to explain the “philosophy” to which them based, for helping in the overcoming the complexity and the identifying the right approach needed to address it by interested developers.
In this regard, “a file rouge” will bring an analysis of the different incentives and benefit traditionally brought and the new opportunities offered by the liberalization and the regional integration of the market. A fluid situation, which is making more and more possible the complete projects and the open new procedure and follows with the planning on the developments of new large-scale and sustainable projects.
Tor Eigil Hodne - Interconnecting Germany and Norway: Nordlink in the Context...Innovation Norway
Interconnecting Germany and Norway: Nordlink in the Context of Energy Security,
Climate Change and Market Integration
Tor Eigil Hodne, Head of Brussels Office, Statnett SF
Cost development of renewable energy technologiesLeonardo ENERGY
This course covers the cost development of renewable energy technologies, which includes the analysis of technological change, in particular with regard to technological learning, the assessment of learning rates of renewable energy technologies available in literature and forecasting studies. For many (energy) technologies, a log-linear relation was found between the accumulated experience and the technical (e.g. efficiency) and economic performance (e.g. investment costs). The rate at which cost decline for each doubling of cumulative production is expressed by the progress ratio (PR). A progress ratio of 90% results in a learning Rate (LR) of 10% and similar cost reduction per doubling of cumulative production (IEA 2000; Junginger, Sark et al. 2010). Learning curves for the renewable energy technologies as well as levelised cost of electricity will be presented. The latter also include the impact of resource conditions (e.g. wind and solar yield) at different locations as well as operation and maintenance costs and fuel expenditures in the case of biomass technologies.
Agora EnergyWende Think Tank : Future Cost of PV Key Insights PresentationEnergy for One World
By 2025, solar power in sunny regions of the world will be cheaper than power from coal or gas / Success depends on stable regulatory conditions
In a few years, solar energy plants will deliver the most inexpensive power available in many parts of the world. By 2025, the cost of producing power in central and southern Europe will have declined to between 4 and 6 cents per kilowatt hour, and by 2050 to as low as 2 to 4 cents, according to a study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems commissioned by Agora Energiewende. Agora Energiewende is an independent German think tank dedicated to research on the future of the electrical power system. The study uses only conservative assumptions about technological developments expected for solar energy. Technological breakthroughs could make electricity even cheaper, but these potential developments were not taken into consideration.
Solar power is already cost-effective: In the sunny, desert country of Dubai, a long-term power purchase contract was signed recently for 5 cents per kilowatt hour, while in Germany large solar plants deliver power for less than 9 cents. By comparison, electricity from new coal and gas-fired plants costs between 5 and 10 cents per kilowatt hour and from nuclear plants as much as 11 cents.
“The study shows that solar energy has become cheaper much more quickly than most experts had predicted and will continue to do so,” says Dr. Patrick Graichen, Director of the Agora Energiewende. “Plans for future power supply systems should therefore be revised worldwide. Until now, most of them only anticipate a small share of solar power in the mix. In view of the extremely favourable costs, solar power will on the contrary play a prominent role, together with wind energy – also, and most importantly, as a cheap way of contributing to international climate protection.”
The study also reveals that electricity generation costs for solar power are highly dependent on financial and regulatory frameworks, due to the high capital intensity of photovoltaic installations. Poor regulation and high risk-premiums reflected in interest rates can raise the cost of solar plants by up to 50 percent. This effect is so great, that it can even outweigh the advantage offered by greater amounts of sunshine. Graichen says: “Favourable financing conditions and stable legal frameworks are therefore vital conditions for cheap, clean solar electricity. It is up to policy makers to create and maintain these conditions.”
ICIS webinar - Price sensitivity analysis with neural networksICIS
The power markets are full of what if’s. The impact of renewable generation on spot power prices has naturally generated a great deal of volatility in the markets. Inputs and assumptions such as power demand, changing weather forecasts, and available capacities are just some of the key drivers that help predict the price of power. But what if there is more wind generation than expected? What happens if demand for power turns out to be stronger than anticipated?
While uncertainties in the market cannot be eliminated, they can be identified, quantified and their impact assessed on positions and portfolios. The goal of this webinar is to explain how Neural Networks power price models can help to assess the sensitivities that can impact spot prices in the German day ahead market and how you can use this to your advantage.
V SIMPOSIO EMPRESARIAL INTERNACIONAL FUNSEAM: LOS RETOS DEL SECTOR ENERGÉTICO
CLAUSURA
Presentación
D. Antonio Brufau, Presidente de Repsol
Conferencia de clausura
La regulación en la consecución de los Retos Energéticos: el papel de ACER: D. Alberto Pototschnig, Director de ACER
Albania toward large and sustainable energy developments by lorenc gordaniLorenc Gordani
This presentation, based to my daily empirical experience, concentrates an assessment about the huge interest for the foreigner investors on the business opportunities offered in ongoing by the traditional hydropower source and the emerging energy sectors of photovoltaic, wind, biomasses, natural gas, efficiency and managing, energy trading and supply, etc.
Further, it will follow with a brief analysis of the catalogue of legal procedures framework to obtain the permission rights and develop a project in energy infrastructure production. The all will be present as much as possible in a simple manner to explain the “philosophy” to which them based, for helping in the overcoming the complexity and the identifying the right approach needed to address it by interested developers.
In this regard, “a file rouge” will bring an analysis of the different incentives and benefit traditionally brought and the new opportunities offered by the liberalization and the regional integration of the market. A fluid situation, which is making more and more possible the complete projects and the open new procedure and follows with the planning on the developments of new large-scale and sustainable projects.
Tor Eigil Hodne - Interconnecting Germany and Norway: Nordlink in the Context...Innovation Norway
Interconnecting Germany and Norway: Nordlink in the Context of Energy Security,
Climate Change and Market Integration
Tor Eigil Hodne, Head of Brussels Office, Statnett SF
Cost development of renewable energy technologiesLeonardo ENERGY
This course covers the cost development of renewable energy technologies, which includes the analysis of technological change, in particular with regard to technological learning, the assessment of learning rates of renewable energy technologies available in literature and forecasting studies. For many (energy) technologies, a log-linear relation was found between the accumulated experience and the technical (e.g. efficiency) and economic performance (e.g. investment costs). The rate at which cost decline for each doubling of cumulative production is expressed by the progress ratio (PR). A progress ratio of 90% results in a learning Rate (LR) of 10% and similar cost reduction per doubling of cumulative production (IEA 2000; Junginger, Sark et al. 2010). Learning curves for the renewable energy technologies as well as levelised cost of electricity will be presented. The latter also include the impact of resource conditions (e.g. wind and solar yield) at different locations as well as operation and maintenance costs and fuel expenditures in the case of biomass technologies.
Agora EnergyWende Think Tank : Future Cost of PV Key Insights PresentationEnergy for One World
By 2025, solar power in sunny regions of the world will be cheaper than power from coal or gas / Success depends on stable regulatory conditions
In a few years, solar energy plants will deliver the most inexpensive power available in many parts of the world. By 2025, the cost of producing power in central and southern Europe will have declined to between 4 and 6 cents per kilowatt hour, and by 2050 to as low as 2 to 4 cents, according to a study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems commissioned by Agora Energiewende. Agora Energiewende is an independent German think tank dedicated to research on the future of the electrical power system. The study uses only conservative assumptions about technological developments expected for solar energy. Technological breakthroughs could make electricity even cheaper, but these potential developments were not taken into consideration.
Solar power is already cost-effective: In the sunny, desert country of Dubai, a long-term power purchase contract was signed recently for 5 cents per kilowatt hour, while in Germany large solar plants deliver power for less than 9 cents. By comparison, electricity from new coal and gas-fired plants costs between 5 and 10 cents per kilowatt hour and from nuclear plants as much as 11 cents.
“The study shows that solar energy has become cheaper much more quickly than most experts had predicted and will continue to do so,” says Dr. Patrick Graichen, Director of the Agora Energiewende. “Plans for future power supply systems should therefore be revised worldwide. Until now, most of them only anticipate a small share of solar power in the mix. In view of the extremely favourable costs, solar power will on the contrary play a prominent role, together with wind energy – also, and most importantly, as a cheap way of contributing to international climate protection.”
The study also reveals that electricity generation costs for solar power are highly dependent on financial and regulatory frameworks, due to the high capital intensity of photovoltaic installations. Poor regulation and high risk-premiums reflected in interest rates can raise the cost of solar plants by up to 50 percent. This effect is so great, that it can even outweigh the advantage offered by greater amounts of sunshine. Graichen says: “Favourable financing conditions and stable legal frameworks are therefore vital conditions for cheap, clean solar electricity. It is up to policy makers to create and maintain these conditions.”
Improving forecasting to optimise programme and project decisions by "Chris B...Project Controls Expo
Improving forecasting to optimise programme and project decisions by Chris Beach - Strategy Director for Amec Foster Wheeler, UK at Project Controls Expo 2017, Arsenal Stadium, London
An integrated OPF dispatching model with wind power and demand response for d...IJECEIAES
In the day-ahead dispatching of network-constrained electricity markets, renewable energy and distributed resources are dispatched together with conventional generation. The uncertainty and volatility associated to renewable resources represents a new paradigm to be faced for power system operation. Moreover, in various electricity markets there are mechanisms to allow the demand participation through demand response (DR) strategies. Under operational and economic restrictions, the operator each day, or even in intra-day markets, dispatchs an optimal power flow to find a feasible state of operation. The operation decisions in power markets use an optimal power flow considering unit commitment to dispatch economically generation and DR resources under security restrictions. This paper constructs a model to include demand response in the optimal power flow under wind power uncertainty. The model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear quadratic problem and evaluated through Monte-Carlo simulations. A large number of scenarios around a trajectory bid captures the uncertainty in wind power forecasting. The proposed integrated OPF model is tested on the standard IEEE 39-bus system.
Concentrated Solar Power Storage in South AfricaDavid Williams
Concentrated Solar Power Storage in South Africa
The guide 'CSP Storage: South Africa' provides insight into the current and future prospects of storage technology,
as well as assessing the dispatchability potential for the South African market. In addition, it contains
exclusive extracts from the CSP Today business intelligence reports.
Tariff policy of India: Salient Points Amitava Nag
Revised Tariff Policy notified by MoP on 28.01.2016.State Government can notify a policy to encourage investment in the State by allowing setting up of generating plants, including from renewable energy sources out of which a maximum of 35% of the installed capacity can be procured by the Distribution Licensees of that State for which the tariff may be determined under Section 62 of the Electricity Act, 2003.
Unlocking the Benefits of the Smart Energy MarketMichael Campbell
Ofgem are planning substantial changes that aim to transform the Electricity Industry, with more of a focus on Half Hourly Settlement. Joel Stark MD recently gave a presentation at the ESTA aM&T Conference on how the shift to HH Settlement will benefit you.
The share of renewables in the European energy mix is increasing dramatically, but the corresponding development of the energy infrastructure, particularly in the distribution network, is lagging sorely behind. If these trends continue, we may be heading for a (CO2-free) train wreck in the not-so-distant future.
Improving forecasting to optimise programme and project decisions by "Chris B...Project Controls Expo
Improving forecasting to optimise programme and project decisions by Chris Beach - Strategy Director for Amec Foster Wheeler, UK at Project Controls Expo 2017, Arsenal Stadium, London
An integrated OPF dispatching model with wind power and demand response for d...IJECEIAES
In the day-ahead dispatching of network-constrained electricity markets, renewable energy and distributed resources are dispatched together with conventional generation. The uncertainty and volatility associated to renewable resources represents a new paradigm to be faced for power system operation. Moreover, in various electricity markets there are mechanisms to allow the demand participation through demand response (DR) strategies. Under operational and economic restrictions, the operator each day, or even in intra-day markets, dispatchs an optimal power flow to find a feasible state of operation. The operation decisions in power markets use an optimal power flow considering unit commitment to dispatch economically generation and DR resources under security restrictions. This paper constructs a model to include demand response in the optimal power flow under wind power uncertainty. The model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear quadratic problem and evaluated through Monte-Carlo simulations. A large number of scenarios around a trajectory bid captures the uncertainty in wind power forecasting. The proposed integrated OPF model is tested on the standard IEEE 39-bus system.
Concentrated Solar Power Storage in South AfricaDavid Williams
Concentrated Solar Power Storage in South Africa
The guide 'CSP Storage: South Africa' provides insight into the current and future prospects of storage technology,
as well as assessing the dispatchability potential for the South African market. In addition, it contains
exclusive extracts from the CSP Today business intelligence reports.
Tariff policy of India: Salient Points Amitava Nag
Revised Tariff Policy notified by MoP on 28.01.2016.State Government can notify a policy to encourage investment in the State by allowing setting up of generating plants, including from renewable energy sources out of which a maximum of 35% of the installed capacity can be procured by the Distribution Licensees of that State for which the tariff may be determined under Section 62 of the Electricity Act, 2003.
Unlocking the Benefits of the Smart Energy MarketMichael Campbell
Ofgem are planning substantial changes that aim to transform the Electricity Industry, with more of a focus on Half Hourly Settlement. Joel Stark MD recently gave a presentation at the ESTA aM&T Conference on how the shift to HH Settlement will benefit you.
The share of renewables in the European energy mix is increasing dramatically, but the corresponding development of the energy infrastructure, particularly in the distribution network, is lagging sorely behind. If these trends continue, we may be heading for a (CO2-free) train wreck in the not-so-distant future.
Knut Eirik Gustavsen - Electric Vehicles Disrupting the Norwegian GridInnovation Norway
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Capacity mechanisms for improving security of supply: quick fixes or thoughtf...Université de Liège (ULg)
This presentation discusses future electricity market designs and, in particular, capacity remuneration mechanisms that are needed for new investments and security of supply.
Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany WEC Italia
Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy
BUILDING ON THE PV EXPERIENCE OF EUROPEAN MARKETSpvsinbloom
PV Market Status in 2010 and prospects for 2011
Market Outlook until 2015
Policy recommendations to sustainably develop a market
PV on the road to competitiveness
V SIMPOSIO EMPRESARIAL INTERNACIONAL FUNSEAM: LOS RETOS DEL SECTOR ENERGÉTICO
MESA 1. RETOS PARA EL SECTOR DE LA ELECTRICIDAD
Inversión en proyectos intensivos en capital y señales de mercado: Dña. Ana Quelhas, Directora de Planificación Energética del Grupo EDP
Preside la mesa: D. Ferran Tarradellas, Director Representación en Barcelona de la Comisión Europea
Johannes KINDLER, former vice-chairman of the “BundesNetzAgentur” (the German Federal Network Agency) and currently working for an international law firm: Bird&Bird, spoke about the development of German power grid: its issues and the need for European policies for networks.
Philipp Steinberg - La transición energética en Europa y el cambio climáticoFundación Ramón Areces
Entre el 30 de junio y el 2 de julio de 2014 organizamos en la Fundación Ramón Areces (C/ Vitruvio, 5, en Madrid) un curso de verano en colaboración con la Universidad Complutense de Madrid sobre los retos energéticos de Europa ante el cambio climático. En estas jornadas, diferentes expertos analizaron la transición energética en Europa para cumplir las exigencias de los compromisos internacionales en materia de emisiones de CO2.
Energiezekerheid in onzekere tijden: gaat het licht uit? Een lezing van Johan Albrecht, Faculteit Economie & Bedrijfskunde (Ugent) in het Turnhoutse Wetenschapcafé op 15 oktober 2014
The European long term vision and the Elia Group challengesElia
Presentation given by Sophie De Baets, European Regulatory & Public Affairs Advisor at Elia, during the EU Briefing on Energy organised by Amcham Belgium on 7/7/2014.
Revealing the value of flexibility in electricity markets - September 2013Stephen Woodhouse
The attached slides outline our ideas on how the value of flexibility could be traded in the European electricity markets, within the context of the Target Model. Contact Stephen Woodhouse at Pöyry for further details of an ongoing study
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Final report from Sweco's multiclient project "Capacity Markets in Europe - Impact on Trade and Investments" (Feb 2014).
The study was supported by 15 industry stakeholdes (power companies, TSO:s, national regulators) from 8 countries.
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2015 ble ikke bare et år med flere kommersielle gjestedøgn og et økt turismeforbruk - Norge tok også andeler i internasjonal turisme. Forventningene til 2016 er gode og preget av optimisme.
Altered Terrain: Colonial Encroachment and Environmental Changes in Cachar, A...PriyankaKilaniya
The beginning of colonial policy in the area was signaled by the British annexation of the Cachar district in southern Assam in 1832. The region became an alluring investment opportunity for Europeans after British rule over Cachar, especially after the accidental discovery of wild tea in 1855. Within this historical context, this study explores three major stages that characterize the evolution of nature. First, it examines the distribution and growth of tea plantations, examining their size and rate of expansion. The second aspect of the study examines the consequences of land concessions, which led to the initial loss of native forests. Finally, the study investigates the increased strain on forests caused by migrant workers' demands. It also highlights the crucial role that the Forest Department plays in protecting these natural habitats from the invasion of tea planters. This study aims to analyze the intricate relationship between colonialism and the altered landscape of Cachar, Assam, by means of a thorough investigation, shedding light on the environmental, economic, and societal aspects of this historical transformation.
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WRI’s brand new “Food Service Playbook for Promoting Sustainable Food Choices” gives food service operators the very latest strategies for creating dining environments that empower consumers to choose sustainable, plant-rich dishes. This research builds off our first guide for food service, now with industry experience and insights from nearly 350 academic trials.
Characterization and the Kinetics of drying at the drying oven and with micro...Open Access Research Paper
The objective of this work is to contribute to valorization de Nephelium lappaceum by the characterization of kinetics of drying of seeds of Nephelium lappaceum. The seeds were dehydrated until a constant mass respectively in a drying oven and a microwawe oven. The temperatures and the powers of drying are respectively: 50, 60 and 70°C and 140, 280 and 420 W. The results show that the curves of drying of seeds of Nephelium lappaceum do not present a phase of constant kinetics. The coefficients of diffusion vary between 2.09.10-8 to 2.98. 10-8m-2/s in the interval of 50°C at 70°C and between 4.83×10-07 at 9.04×10-07 m-8/s for the powers going of 140 W with 420 W the relation between Arrhenius and a value of energy of activation of 16.49 kJ. mol-1 expressed the effect of the temperature on effective diffusivity.
Willie Nelson Net Worth: A Journey Through Music, Movies, and Business Venturesgreendigital
Willie Nelson is a name that resonates within the world of music and entertainment. Known for his unique voice, and masterful guitar skills. and an extraordinary career spanning several decades. Nelson has become a legend in the country music scene. But, his influence extends far beyond the realm of music. with ventures in acting, writing, activism, and business. This comprehensive article delves into Willie Nelson net worth. exploring the various facets of his career that have contributed to his large fortune.
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Introduction
Willie Nelson net worth is a testament to his enduring influence and success in many fields. Born on April 29, 1933, in Abbott, Texas. Nelson's journey from a humble beginning to becoming one of the most iconic figures in American music is nothing short of inspirational. His net worth, which estimated to be around $25 million as of 2024. reflects a career that is as diverse as it is prolific.
Early Life and Musical Beginnings
Humble Origins
Willie Hugh Nelson was born during the Great Depression. a time of significant economic hardship in the United States. Raised by his grandparents. Nelson found solace and inspiration in music from an early age. His grandmother taught him to play the guitar. setting the stage for what would become an illustrious career.
First Steps in Music
Nelson's initial foray into the music industry was fraught with challenges. He moved to Nashville, Tennessee, to pursue his dreams, but success did not come . Working as a songwriter, Nelson penned hits for other artists. which helped him gain a foothold in the competitive music scene. His songwriting skills contributed to his early earnings. laying the foundation for his net worth.
Rise to Stardom
Breakthrough Albums
The 1970s marked a turning point in Willie Nelson's career. His albums "Shotgun Willie" (1973), "Red Headed Stranger" (1975). and "Stardust" (1978) received critical acclaim and commercial success. These albums not only solidified his position in the country music genre. but also introduced his music to a broader audience. The success of these albums played a crucial role in boosting Willie Nelson net worth.
Iconic Songs
Willie Nelson net worth is also attributed to his extensive catalog of hit songs. Tracks like "Blue Eyes Crying in the Rain," "On the Road Again," and "Always on My Mind" have become timeless classics. These songs have not only earned Nelson large royalties but have also ensured his continued relevance in the music industry.
Acting and Film Career
Hollywood Ventures
In addition to his music career, Willie Nelson has also made a mark in Hollywood. His distinctive personality and on-screen presence have landed him roles in several films and television shows. Notable appearances include roles in "The Electric Horseman" (1979), "Honeysuckle Rose" (1980), and "Barbarosa" (1982). These acting gigs have added a significant amount to Willie Nelson net worth.
Television Appearances
Nelson's char
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Climate change refers to significant and lasting changes in the average weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It encompasses both global warming driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases and the resulting large-scale shifts in weather patterns. While climate change is a natural phenomenon, human activities, particularly since the Industrial Revolution, have accelerated its pace and intensity
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The carbon cycle is a critical component of Earth's environmental system, governing the movement and transformation of carbon through various reservoirs, including the atmosphere, oceans, soil, and living organisms. This complex cycle involves several key processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, and carbon sequestration, each contributing to the regulation of carbon levels on the planet.
Human activities, particularly fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, have significantly altered the natural carbon cycle, leading to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and driving climate change. Understanding the intricacies of the carbon cycle is essential for assessing the impacts of these changes and developing effective mitigation strategies.
By studying the carbon cycle, scientists can identify carbon sources and sinks, measure carbon fluxes, and predict future trends. This knowledge is crucial for crafting policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions, enhancing carbon storage, and promoting sustainable practices. The carbon cycle's interplay with climate systems, ecosystems, and human activities underscores its importance in maintaining a stable and healthy planet.
In-depth exploration of the carbon cycle reveals the delicate balance required to sustain life and the urgent need to address anthropogenic influences. Through research, education, and policy, we can work towards restoring equilibrium in the carbon cycle and ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come.
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024punit537210
Situated in Pondicherry, India, Kuddle Life Foundation is a charitable, non-profit and non-governmental organization (NGO) dedicated to improving the living standards of coastal communities and simultaneously placing a strong emphasis on the protection of marine ecosystems.
One of the key areas we work in is Artificial Reefs. This presentation captures our journey so far and our learnings. We hope you get as excited about marine conservation and artificial reefs as we are.
Please visit our website: https://kuddlelife.org
Our Instagram channel:
@kuddlelifefoundation
Our Linkedin Page:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/kuddlelifefoundation/
and write to us if you have any questions:
info@kuddlelife.org
Presented by The Global Peatlands Assessment: Mapping, Policy, and Action at GLF Peatlands 2024 - The Global Peatlands Assessment: Mapping, Policy, and Action
Peatland Management in Indonesia, Science to Policy and Knowledge Education
Stefan Goebel - Putting a Price on Security of Supply – Capacity Mechanisms
1. PUTTING A PRICE ON SECURITY OF SUPPLY – CAPACITY MECHANISMS
Berlin, 23 October 2014
Stefan-Jörg Göbel
2. Our two quite opposite experiences
Positive: >10.000 MW European third party RES under management!
Putting a Price on Security of Supply
Negative: 3 digit million EUR write- offs in German CCGTs!
2
3. Decline in power price
3
Yearly average Spot price for base and peak load at the EPEX-DE
Putting a Price on Security of Supply
01020304050607080901002008200920102011201220132014(implied) EUR/MWh BasePeak
4. Margins for gas units on the term market
Putting a Price on Security of Supply
4
-20-15-10-5051015202530Jan 10Jul 10Jan 11Jul 11Jan 12Jul 12Jan 13Jul 13Jan 14Jul 14 [€/MWh] Clean Spark Spread Peak Cal_11Cal_11 LieferungCal_12Cal_12 LieferungCal_13Cal_13 LieferungCal_14Cal_14 LieferungCal_15
5. Statkraft production decline and CCGT economics in Germany
Capacity utilisation of gas power plant fleet dropped to insignificant levels
1200 MW CCGT´s have fixed operational costs of about 18m EUR/a (15 EUR/kW/a)
Currently however only marginal costs can be recovered
There is no commercial role for gas-to- power!
5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Production in TWh
Year
Production of Statkraft Fleet
Knapsack 1
Herdecke
Emden
Robert Frank
Knapsack II
6. Some speculation about capacity development: From overcapacity to a new equilibrium?
Putting a Price on Security of Supply
6
Source: Kurzstudie zur Kapazitätsentwicklung in Süddeutschland bis 2025 unter Berücksichtigung der Situation in Deutschland und den europäischen Nachbarstaaten, 17 September 2014; own speculation
Optimistic Scenario
Demand
Dispatchable Supply
2015
2020
2025
2030
Speculation 1: Bust and Boom
Speculation 2: Steady Fall
7. Generation capacity on its way to a new equilibrium?
Starting point - decline:
•Dispatchable supply is falling because of cash burn of existing generators. Oct 2014: 49 units representing 13500 MW applied for decommissioning.
•No new capacity to come online under existing market framework and conditions.
Break point - stabilising:
•All capacity earns back operating costs (O&M mainly) or believes to do so soon.
•No consensus if this is at a point giving security of supply.
Turning point - increase:
•New capacity or significant plant refurbishment is not only able to recover operating costs but also investments.
•Statkraft believes this point will never be reached under the current market conditions.
Putting a Price on Security of Supply
7
8. In a zero marginal cost dominated system cost coverage must come from very few hours
Putting a Price on Security of Supply
8
hours
price
Price distribution in a renewable dominated world
„Traditional“ price distribution
In theory generators are indifferent if they sell at 400 EUR/MWh in 500 hours or at 40 EUR/MWh in 5000 hours.
But what would set the price at 400 EUR/MWh?
Also in practice generators are afraid of political intervention.
9. Current Interventions in the so called Energy Only Market (EOM) in Germany
Redispatch: Frequent TSO interference for balancing various areas of the grid, marginal cost compensation only
The „Irsching case“: Irsching CCGT run mainly under redispatch and thus qualifying for full cost coverage, no transparency, possibly discriminating
„Netzreserve“: Capacity contracted by TSOs in the south as redispatch potential. Intransparent cost compensation, non-German capacity more generously treated.
„Stilllegungsverbot“: 12 months notice period before a plant may be decommissioned, if TSOs veto decommssioning yearly fix OPEX will be taken over
Putting a Price on Security of Supply
9
10. The Government‘s timeline
Studies on market design
-Results: “The power market works in principle and can provide security of supply”
Green Book: Publication November 2014, Consultation until March 2015
White Book: Publication May 2015, Consultation until September 2015
New energy law until Q3/2016
Consultation with neighboring states in parallel
Putting a Price on Security of Supply
10
11. How would a EOM+CRM look like, what would it cost: An illustration of one of million options
A yearly auction to secure a capacity level which is set by the regulator
All capacity can participate: New, old, all fuels, demand side, no minimum size, domestic and foreign
A capacity price merit order is made and the last unit still needed to cover the targeted capacity level sets the clearing capacity price
All capacity can still participate in the EOM
Existing capacity will thus bid the expected „missing money“ between EOM income and yearly fixed operational costs
This means that in a market without missing money and overcapacity the capacity price will be zero!
Putting a Price on Security of Supply
11
12. Current arguments – some quotes from Frontier Economics‘ study concluding CRM not needed
„Please note: Political control over the level of capacity / security of supply is no economic value as such.“
„EOM can provide security of supply if reforms will take place.“
„EOM can in principle also provide sufficient security of supply without „explicit“ capacity prices.“
„… it takes a clear commitment from the political side and the administration to accept scarcity induced price peaks.“
„Difference between system costs as NPV (2015) over model horizon (2015- 2039) and all regions (Central Europe) compared to EOM: 2.2bn – 9bn EUR.“
Assumed CO2 price 2024: 30 EUR/t, 2034: 50 EUR/t
Assumed demand side management participation 2035: 3.7 – 9 GW
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13. Putting possible CRM costs into perspective
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Frontier Economics additional cost estimate vs. EOM:
0.1-0.4bn EUR/a
Nominal CRM payment if capacity price is set by CCGT yearly fixed operational cost @15 EUR/kW/a and 80 GW:
1.2bn EUR/a
2014 EEG levy:
24bn EUR/a
2011-2014 “savings” effect @15 EUR/MWh price decline and 600 TWh:
9bn EUR/a
14. Recommendations
A well-designed Capacity Market is necessary, to achieve security of supply, climate protection, integration of RES and affordability of energy
Several variants of a Capacity Market can work, as long as these are market- wide and allow for full and fair competition between all capacity providers and cross-border participation is ensured.
A Capacity Market should not aim to keep all overcapacity alive
Fast implementation of Capacity Market is needed to avoid inefficient closure of efficient gas-fired capacity.
Closure would mean capital destruction for society.
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15. Putting a Price on Security of Supply
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Questions? Answers!