Dr. Wilfried Aulbur from Roland Berger presented on the topics of electric trucks and automated trucks. Some key points included: - Electric trucks are expected to reach a 2-8% market penetration in Europe and North America by 2025, with higher adoption in bus and urban delivery vehicles. Total cost of ownership for electric trucks is approaching parity for certain use cases. - Automated trucks have the potential to significantly impact the trucking industry but widespread adoption is not expected until the mid-2020s as the technology and regulations are still being developed. Transfer hubs could allow automated trucks to operate between cities while conventional trucks handle local deliveries. - The presentation analyzed various use cases and regions for the application

1. Presented by
Dr. Wilfried Aulbur, Senior Partner Roland Berger

2. Source: Factiva; Roland Berger
Press clippings
Apr
4.600
Mar
4.200
Aug
7.900
Jul
6.700
Jun
7.100
May
5.400
Freightliner Goes Electric: Truck maker unveils
battery-powered eCascadia, eM2 models Equipment World, June 2018
World’s First Unmanned Electric Truck
Enters Testing at China’s Tianjin Port YiCai Global, April 2018
Bosch to launch new electric commercial
vehicle powertrain in 2019 Logistics Middle East, August 2018
Otto Co-Founder Launches New
Autonomous Truck Startup Company Trucking Info, August 2018
Electric Commercial Vehicle Market – Technological
Innovations in Batteries to Boost Growth Business Wire, March 2018
Number of news hits for "electric
truck" & "automated truck"

3. Fuel economy/
CO2 targets
Green fleet
image
Some large fleets adopt
electric vehicles to convey
a green image
No relevance yetSome large fleets adopt electric
vehicles to convey a green image
Incentives Incentives stimulate sales, but
are restricted to certain states
Strong incentives have
boosted electric vehicle sales
Limited incentives on purchasing
prices available
Local
emissions/city
restrictions
Inner city restrictions expected
to play only minor role
Need to address local emission
issues in major cities
Several cities expected to ban
high emission vehicles in inner
cities
TCO
advantage
Selected use cases with
positive TCO effects
Fleet operators are not yet
optimizing TCO of their fleets
Selected use cases with
positive TCO effect
Future fuel economy targets
can be met without electrification
Future fuel economy targets can be
met without electrification
No fuel economy targets yet in
place
Tech-
nology pull
Regulatory
forces
Drivers for CV electrification
Source: Roland Berger
Main driver

4. Source: Roland Berger
Current state of the industry and future trends: Electric trucks
1) Compared to a conventional truck for USD 130,000
Range [mi]
Example
trucks
Example payback
calculation for 2025
for a truck with 300 mi
range
Daimler EVBYD EV
125 300-500250
Diesel truck
1,000+
Nikola HFC
500-1,000
Battery capacity [kWh]
Battery cost 2025 [USD]
Purchasing price [USD]
Incremental investment1) [USD]
Operating cost savings [USD/year]
Payback time [mo]
600
~85,000
~200,000-250,000
~70,000-120,000
+20,000-25,000
42-60✓
Tesla EV
Economically viable range

5. Source: Roland Berger
Expected BEV penetration 2025 ['000]
BusHD Truck MD Truck
95% 5%
ICE BEV
98% 2%
>99% <1%
5%95%
ICE BEV
92% 8%
91% 9%
94% 6%
79% 21%
ICE BEV
56% 44%

6. Source: Roland Berger
Current state of the industry and future trends: Automated trucks
Today:
Confined areas
• Controlled low speed
environment with restricted
access, e.g.
‒ Harbor terminals
‒ Mining operations
‒ Large production sites
‒ Large agricultural farms
• Mixed conventional and driver-
less stage 4 automated traffic
• Use of existing highway
infrastructure and operation
at normal traffic speed
• Transfer hubs will enable
switching btw. conventional
and automated trucks
Future (2025+):
Transfer hubs
Current capabilities
OEMs are working on vehicles
with Stage 3 and Stage 4 capabilities
Startups such as Embark in the United
States and TuSimple in China have exhibited
initial Stage 3 capabilities with aftermarket
solutions in pilot applications
Applications …
Specialized technology companies are
working on specific areas of automated
vehicles, such as video safety technology,
next-generation vision technologies, high-
definition mapping, deep learning, AI and
computing technology

7. Source: Roland Berger
Example USA: Operating cost and time impact for example trip
Cost impact [USD per load] Time impact
[trip duration in hrs]
Origin to hub 25 mi
Hub to hub 1,030 mi
Hub to destination 25 mi
Truck on-road
Desti-
nationOrigin
826
203
20
-40%
Long-haul
Drayage
Transfer hub
Transfer
hub model
1,049
Conventional
truck
1,736
• Elimination of driver cost
between transfer hubs
• Operation of conventional trucks is
limited by hours-of-service regulation
• Automated trucks can run almost 24/7
-50%
Transfer
hub model
~24
Conventional
truck
~48
Example trip along the I-10 corridor Impact of automated trucks
Potential transfer hub locations

8. FLHawaii
1.2
1.1
Truck fleet
2017
3.1
1.4
0.9
0.8
0.5
Tractors
replaced by
automated
trucks
0.4
0.6
Truck fleet
2035 (w/o
automation)
4.1
1.9
CAGR 1.6%
Truck fleet
2035
3.9
0.5
1.3
1.0
1.1
Incremental
drayage trucks
0.2
Incremental
automated
trucks
Automated truckTractor sleeper cabTractor day cabStraight truck
Source: Roland Berger
Example USA: Impact of transfer hubs on US heavy duty truck fleet
Million trucks
States assumed to allow
driverless truck operation
Automated trucks can be operated in
multiple states along the sun belt
(automated truck corridors)
About 25% of the truck freight volume
could be handled through transfer hubs
Fewer trucks are needed as automated
trucks can run almost 24/7
Potential future case Incremental effects on fleet size & composition

9. Source: Roland Berger
Application sweet spots for autonomous and electric trucks (indicative)
Trip length
Long
Short
Trip repetitiveness
Low High
300 mi
500 mi
50 mi
Yard
Drayage
Inner-city distribution
Regional line haul
Long-haul
Stage 4 (hub-2-hub)
Electric Stage 4 (confined)
Platooning & Stage 5
Fully electric trucks Autonomous trucks

10. Source: Roland Berger
Key take aways and implications
Electrification will also happen in the
commercial vehicle space, but volumes
will remain limited outside some
growth pockets (e.g., city bus China)
Key take aways
Automation has the potential to
disrupt the trucking industry, but the
technological and legal framework
won't be ready before the mid of the
next decade
Implications
•Climate change & AI are real – the
question is not IF but HOW to change
•Timelines will vary by region & use case –
A focused innovation strategy is a must
•Diesel has still a lot of life left and we will
continue to need truck drivers – Invest, but
don't cannibalize your core business

11. Source: Roland Berger
Walter Rentzsch
Principal
Automotive, CV & Strategy
Wilfried Aulbur
Senior Partner
Automotive, CV & Strategy
Stephan Keese
Senior Partner
Automotive, CV & Strategy
+1 312 543 3743
Wilfried.Aulbur@rolandberger.com
+1 312 385-0426
Stephan.Keese@rolandberger.com
+1 248 275-3851
Walter.Rentzsch@rolandberger.com
Frank Pietras
Principal
Automotive, CV & Strategy
+49 89 9230 8498
Frank.Pietras@rolandberger.com