The document discusses various approaches to country risk analysis, including qualitative analysis of financial, macroeconomic, legal, regulatory and political factors, quantitative ratings and scoring approaches, and econometric modeling approaches. It also reviews several specialized country risk rating institutions such as BERI, Euromoney, Institutional Investor, International Country Risk Guide, COFACE, OECD, and others that provide ratings of country risk using different quantitative methodologies. The ratings are useful but also have limitations as predictive tools and in oversimplifying complex country risk profiles.
The document discusses various approaches to country risk assessment, including qualitative analysis of financial, macroeconomic, legal, regulatory and political parameters, as well as quantitative rating approaches. It then summarizes ratings from several specialized country risk rating institutions, including the strengths and limitations of country risk ratings. Finally, it provides examples of country risk ratings from 2007 for various countries from institutions like Euromoney and Institutional Investor.
The document provides a country risk analysis for investing internationally. It analyzes the political, economic, and financial risks associated with investing in different countries. The main categories of country risk are defined as political risk, economic risk, and financial risk. Key components of each risk category are identified. Country risk scores and analyses are then provided for the USA, India, and Pakistan based on these categories and components to determine which country presents the lowest, medium, or highest risk for foreign investment. Recommendations are made regarding investment approaches and levels for each country based on their current and forecasted risk profiles over the short and long term.
The document discusses country risk analysis. It defines country risk as risks arising from changes in a country's business environment that may negatively affect profits or asset values. Country risk includes factors like currency controls, devaluation, political instability, and terrorism. The document outlines various factors used to analyze country risk, such as political, economic, location, sovereign, transfer, exchange rate, and financial risks. It also discusses techniques for assessing country risk like using checklists, ratings, and the foreign investment risk matrix. Country risk is an important consideration for multinational companies in decisions like capital budgeting.
The document discusses country risk analysis. It defines country risk as risks arising from changes in a country's business environment that may negatively impact profits or asset values. It identifies several political, economic, financial, and subjective factors that contribute to country risk, such as currency controls, civil unrest, economic growth rates, corruption, and consumer attitudes. The document also discusses methods for assessing country risk like checklists, the Delphi technique, and quantitative analysis. It provides examples of how country risk ratings can inform investment decisions and be incorporated into capital budgeting.
This document discusses country risk analysis, which assesses potential risks and rewards of doing business in a country. Country risk represents adverse impacts of a country's environment on a multinational company's cash flows. Country risk analysis can be used to monitor countries where a company currently operates, screen countries to avoid excessive risk, and improve analysis for long-term investment decisions. It discusses political, economic, subjective, and financial factors to consider in country risk analysis. The presentation also outlines oversight policies and procedures that multinational companies employ to manage country risk exposure.
Lexis nexis risk solutions true cost of financial crime compliance global rep...Hannes Bezuidenhout
The document summarizes the key findings of a report on the global cost of financial crime compliance. The projected total cost of compliance across major markets is $180.9 billion annually, with the majority in the UK and Germany. Average compliance costs are highest for mid-large firms in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Netherlands, ranging from $41-53.8 million annually. This is 3-4 times higher than comparable firms in North America and Asia Pacific, and up to 7 times higher than in Latin America, due to factors like complex European regulations, data privacy laws, and labor costs.
1. The document discusses challenges in identifying emerging risks and proposes frameworks to assess emerging risks. It notes the increasing complexity, volume and interconnectedness of risks.
2. Traditional risk assessments often consider likelihood and impact, but the document advocates also considering risk velocity and duration. Emerging risks are often unexpected, high impact events rather than predictable low probability risks.
3. Leading companies focus on potential risk consequences rather than likelihood alone. Assessing business value at risk, threat magnitude, existing defenses and mitigation responses/costs is proposed for emerging risk evaluation.
The document discusses various approaches to country risk assessment, including qualitative analysis of financial, macroeconomic, legal, regulatory and political parameters, as well as quantitative rating approaches. It then summarizes ratings from several specialized country risk rating institutions, including the strengths and limitations of country risk ratings. Finally, it provides examples of country risk ratings from 2007 for various countries from institutions like Euromoney and Institutional Investor.
The document provides a country risk analysis for investing internationally. It analyzes the political, economic, and financial risks associated with investing in different countries. The main categories of country risk are defined as political risk, economic risk, and financial risk. Key components of each risk category are identified. Country risk scores and analyses are then provided for the USA, India, and Pakistan based on these categories and components to determine which country presents the lowest, medium, or highest risk for foreign investment. Recommendations are made regarding investment approaches and levels for each country based on their current and forecasted risk profiles over the short and long term.
The document discusses country risk analysis. It defines country risk as risks arising from changes in a country's business environment that may negatively affect profits or asset values. Country risk includes factors like currency controls, devaluation, political instability, and terrorism. The document outlines various factors used to analyze country risk, such as political, economic, location, sovereign, transfer, exchange rate, and financial risks. It also discusses techniques for assessing country risk like using checklists, ratings, and the foreign investment risk matrix. Country risk is an important consideration for multinational companies in decisions like capital budgeting.
The document discusses country risk analysis. It defines country risk as risks arising from changes in a country's business environment that may negatively impact profits or asset values. It identifies several political, economic, financial, and subjective factors that contribute to country risk, such as currency controls, civil unrest, economic growth rates, corruption, and consumer attitudes. The document also discusses methods for assessing country risk like checklists, the Delphi technique, and quantitative analysis. It provides examples of how country risk ratings can inform investment decisions and be incorporated into capital budgeting.
This document discusses country risk analysis, which assesses potential risks and rewards of doing business in a country. Country risk represents adverse impacts of a country's environment on a multinational company's cash flows. Country risk analysis can be used to monitor countries where a company currently operates, screen countries to avoid excessive risk, and improve analysis for long-term investment decisions. It discusses political, economic, subjective, and financial factors to consider in country risk analysis. The presentation also outlines oversight policies and procedures that multinational companies employ to manage country risk exposure.
Lexis nexis risk solutions true cost of financial crime compliance global rep...Hannes Bezuidenhout
The document summarizes the key findings of a report on the global cost of financial crime compliance. The projected total cost of compliance across major markets is $180.9 billion annually, with the majority in the UK and Germany. Average compliance costs are highest for mid-large firms in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Netherlands, ranging from $41-53.8 million annually. This is 3-4 times higher than comparable firms in North America and Asia Pacific, and up to 7 times higher than in Latin America, due to factors like complex European regulations, data privacy laws, and labor costs.
1. The document discusses challenges in identifying emerging risks and proposes frameworks to assess emerging risks. It notes the increasing complexity, volume and interconnectedness of risks.
2. Traditional risk assessments often consider likelihood and impact, but the document advocates also considering risk velocity and duration. Emerging risks are often unexpected, high impact events rather than predictable low probability risks.
3. Leading companies focus on potential risk consequences rather than likelihood alone. Assessing business value at risk, threat magnitude, existing defenses and mitigation responses/costs is proposed for emerging risk evaluation.
The document discusses common causes of financial crises and failures based on lessons learned from the recent global financial crisis. It outlines regulatory reforms proposed as a result, and emphasizes the importance of basic risk analysis for banks. Key causes mentioned include flawed business strategies, poor governance/oversight, excessive risk-taking, and macroeconomic imbalances. Proper accountability of all stakeholders in risk management is highlighted.
Nearly 80% of European insurers are on track to implement Solvency II by 1 Jan 2016, but there is wide variation in the level of preparedness by country.
Dutch, UK and Nordic insurers are most confident in meeting the requirements, while French, German, Greek and Eastern European insurers are less confident.
Our survey of more than 170 insurance companies across 20 European countries sheds light on key areas of implementing Solvency II, including data and IT readiness, organizational change, regulatory interaction, recovery and resolution planning, and capital optimization.
We will also discuss our other findings:
- Insurers are seeking to improve the effectiveness of their risk management.
- Challenges of reporting and ensuring robust data and information technology (IT) remain very significant.
- Preparedness for Pillar 3 remains relatively low, and action is needed in 2014 to meet the requirements on time.
- Many insurers are not satisfied with the level of support from their regulators in providing timely feedback on plans and interpretation of new requirements. This is due, in part, to the significant resourcing challenges regulators face.
- Automation of many risk management activities, particularly reporting, remains relatively low.
Link to on-demand webcast: http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Issues/webcast_2014-06-03-1500_insurance-european-solvency-ii-survey-2014
Link to survey report: http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Financial-Services/Insurance/EY-european-solvency-ii-survey-2014
Costs of sovereign default: restructuring strategies, bank distress and the c...ADEMU_Project
This document discusses a research project analyzing how the costs of sovereign debt default, including impacts on economic growth, are affected by the restructuring strategy employed and whether the default triggers a bank crisis. The researchers aim to identify transmission channels through which defaults impact GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows, and whether these channels are influenced by the default strategy. They use a dataset of debt default and banking crisis events in 69 countries from 1970-2013. Local projections and augmented inverse probability weighting methods are employed to estimate effects on macroeconomic variables while addressing endogeneity concerns. Preliminary results suggest defaults negatively impact growth, investment, and credit by weakening the financial sector, and these effects depend on the restructuring strategy and whether a bank
This document discusses different approaches to evaluating sovereign risk:
1) Rating agencies privately analyze countries' political and economic risks and assign credit ratings.
2) Credit scoring uses statistical models to predict ratings based on economic variables.
3) Fundamental analysis independently assesses each country based on economic factors and simulations.
4) Market prices reflect supply and demand and imply default probabilities.
This document discusses the transition from using economic capital to risk-based capital requirements (ERM) in insurance. It covers key aspects of the economic capital and Solvency II approaches such as risk identification, data selection and limitations, calibration of risk models, aggregation of risks and dependencies, and validation of capital models. The document also discusses challenges such as data quality issues, limitations of rating agency data, and ensuring diversification benefits are captured accurately when aggregating risks.
This document discusses political risk and strategies for companies expanding internationally. It identifies risks companies may face entering Russia like an inconsistent legal system and centralized government. France poses uncertainty risks from strict regulations. The document explains that quantifying but not weighting risks allows for flexibility. Setting up local partnerships or affiliates in Iran could help reduce expropriation risks. It also discusses how terrorism has impacted foreign interests in countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia for oil.
Mercer Capital's Community Bank Stress Testing: What You Need to KnowMercer Capital
While there is no legal requirement for community banks to perform stress tests, recent regulatory commentary suggests that community banks should be developing and implementing some form of stress testing on at least an annual basis.
Whether you are considering performing the test in-house or with outside assistance, this webinar will be of interest to you. This webinar: covers the basics of community bank stress testing; reviews the economic scenarios published by the Federal Reserve; provides detail on the key steps to developing a sound community bank stress test; and discusses how to analyze and act upon the outputs of your stress tests.
Debt Trends in the Capital Structure of European InsurersA.M. Best Company
Catherine Thomas, A.M. Best's Senior Director of Analytics, gave a presentation focusing on Europe's debt trends and capital structure. The presentation originally debuted during A.M. Best's recent London briefing.
3Q 2013 Consolidated Earnings PresentationGaranti Bank
- The document provides an earnings presentation for the 9 month period ending September 30, 2013 for BRSA Consolidated Financials. It summarizes key highlights including macroeconomic factors, financial results, asset composition and quality, funding and profitability. Specifically, it notes higher interest rates suppressed margins in 3Q but core banking profitability remained strong. Loan growth was selective and profitability focused, with retail loans driving growth. Asset quality remained sound with adequate coverage levels.
A.M. Best's Chief Rating Officer Stefan Holzberger discussed ratings, opportunities and capitalization in the EMEA markets during A.M. Best's recent briefing in London.
This document summarizes a Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) of Greece conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Greek financial system has strengthened since EU integration, with profitable and well-capitalized banks, but also faces challenges from rapid credit growth exposing banks to new risks. Medium-term challenges include improving competitiveness and developing new funding sources. Supervision has been effective for banks but weaker for insurance. Key recommendations include monitoring credit risks from new lending, strengthening supervision across all sectors, and addressing structural issues hampering competitiveness.
Capital Adequacy Stress Tests: Pre-Provision Net Revenue and Scenario DesignCRISIL Limited
The document provides details about a web conference on capital adequacy stress tests with a focus on pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) modeling and scenario design. It includes dial-in details for participants to join the audio portion of the web conference, which will be presented by Joshua Hancher from CRISIL Global Research & Analytics. The agenda covers PPNR modeling components like balance sheet projections, net interest income, noninterest income and expenses. It also discusses scenario development and case studies from CRISIL GR&A on commercial loan forecasts and fair value of loans held-for-sale.
The document discusses COSO and its publications on enterprise risk management (ERM) and internal control. It summarizes COSO's definitions and objectives for ERM and internal control, and the key components and principles of each. It also examines the relationship between COSO and auditing standards, specifically how COSO maps to assertions used in risk assessment and how an auditor can leverage COSO during the risk assessment process.
The textile and apparel industry is the largest export industry and foreign exchange earner in Sri Lanka. It began modestly in the 1950s and grew significantly with economic liberalization policies in the 1970s and partnerships with international brands in the 1980s. The industry produces a wide range of clothing for major international brands. While it faces challenges from competitors and issues retaining its GSP+ status, the government is working to increase the industry's global market share through trade agreements and improving technology, branding, and support for small and medium enterprises.
The document provides an overview of a business diagnostic review to assess readiness for international expansion. It includes an analysis of the business model, SWOT analysis of internal and external factors, performance mapping of key operations, and strategies for market entry, cultural engagement, and exiting the market. The review evaluates the balance of customers, capacity, and cash flow as well as time targets, ambitions, valuations, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
The document discusses common causes of financial crises and failures based on lessons learned from the recent global financial crisis. It outlines regulatory reforms proposed as a result, and emphasizes the importance of basic risk analysis for banks. Key causes mentioned include flawed business strategies, poor governance/oversight, excessive risk-taking, and macroeconomic imbalances. Proper accountability of all stakeholders in risk management is highlighted.
Nearly 80% of European insurers are on track to implement Solvency II by 1 Jan 2016, but there is wide variation in the level of preparedness by country.
Dutch, UK and Nordic insurers are most confident in meeting the requirements, while French, German, Greek and Eastern European insurers are less confident.
Our survey of more than 170 insurance companies across 20 European countries sheds light on key areas of implementing Solvency II, including data and IT readiness, organizational change, regulatory interaction, recovery and resolution planning, and capital optimization.
We will also discuss our other findings:
- Insurers are seeking to improve the effectiveness of their risk management.
- Challenges of reporting and ensuring robust data and information technology (IT) remain very significant.
- Preparedness for Pillar 3 remains relatively low, and action is needed in 2014 to meet the requirements on time.
- Many insurers are not satisfied with the level of support from their regulators in providing timely feedback on plans and interpretation of new requirements. This is due, in part, to the significant resourcing challenges regulators face.
- Automation of many risk management activities, particularly reporting, remains relatively low.
Link to on-demand webcast: http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Issues/webcast_2014-06-03-1500_insurance-european-solvency-ii-survey-2014
Link to survey report: http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Financial-Services/Insurance/EY-european-solvency-ii-survey-2014
Costs of sovereign default: restructuring strategies, bank distress and the c...ADEMU_Project
This document discusses a research project analyzing how the costs of sovereign debt default, including impacts on economic growth, are affected by the restructuring strategy employed and whether the default triggers a bank crisis. The researchers aim to identify transmission channels through which defaults impact GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows, and whether these channels are influenced by the default strategy. They use a dataset of debt default and banking crisis events in 69 countries from 1970-2013. Local projections and augmented inverse probability weighting methods are employed to estimate effects on macroeconomic variables while addressing endogeneity concerns. Preliminary results suggest defaults negatively impact growth, investment, and credit by weakening the financial sector, and these effects depend on the restructuring strategy and whether a bank
This document discusses different approaches to evaluating sovereign risk:
1) Rating agencies privately analyze countries' political and economic risks and assign credit ratings.
2) Credit scoring uses statistical models to predict ratings based on economic variables.
3) Fundamental analysis independently assesses each country based on economic factors and simulations.
4) Market prices reflect supply and demand and imply default probabilities.
This document discusses the transition from using economic capital to risk-based capital requirements (ERM) in insurance. It covers key aspects of the economic capital and Solvency II approaches such as risk identification, data selection and limitations, calibration of risk models, aggregation of risks and dependencies, and validation of capital models. The document also discusses challenges such as data quality issues, limitations of rating agency data, and ensuring diversification benefits are captured accurately when aggregating risks.
This document discusses political risk and strategies for companies expanding internationally. It identifies risks companies may face entering Russia like an inconsistent legal system and centralized government. France poses uncertainty risks from strict regulations. The document explains that quantifying but not weighting risks allows for flexibility. Setting up local partnerships or affiliates in Iran could help reduce expropriation risks. It also discusses how terrorism has impacted foreign interests in countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia for oil.
Mercer Capital's Community Bank Stress Testing: What You Need to KnowMercer Capital
While there is no legal requirement for community banks to perform stress tests, recent regulatory commentary suggests that community banks should be developing and implementing some form of stress testing on at least an annual basis.
Whether you are considering performing the test in-house or with outside assistance, this webinar will be of interest to you. This webinar: covers the basics of community bank stress testing; reviews the economic scenarios published by the Federal Reserve; provides detail on the key steps to developing a sound community bank stress test; and discusses how to analyze and act upon the outputs of your stress tests.
Debt Trends in the Capital Structure of European InsurersA.M. Best Company
Catherine Thomas, A.M. Best's Senior Director of Analytics, gave a presentation focusing on Europe's debt trends and capital structure. The presentation originally debuted during A.M. Best's recent London briefing.
3Q 2013 Consolidated Earnings PresentationGaranti Bank
- The document provides an earnings presentation for the 9 month period ending September 30, 2013 for BRSA Consolidated Financials. It summarizes key highlights including macroeconomic factors, financial results, asset composition and quality, funding and profitability. Specifically, it notes higher interest rates suppressed margins in 3Q but core banking profitability remained strong. Loan growth was selective and profitability focused, with retail loans driving growth. Asset quality remained sound with adequate coverage levels.
A.M. Best's Chief Rating Officer Stefan Holzberger discussed ratings, opportunities and capitalization in the EMEA markets during A.M. Best's recent briefing in London.
This document summarizes a Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) of Greece conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Greek financial system has strengthened since EU integration, with profitable and well-capitalized banks, but also faces challenges from rapid credit growth exposing banks to new risks. Medium-term challenges include improving competitiveness and developing new funding sources. Supervision has been effective for banks but weaker for insurance. Key recommendations include monitoring credit risks from new lending, strengthening supervision across all sectors, and addressing structural issues hampering competitiveness.
Capital Adequacy Stress Tests: Pre-Provision Net Revenue and Scenario DesignCRISIL Limited
The document provides details about a web conference on capital adequacy stress tests with a focus on pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) modeling and scenario design. It includes dial-in details for participants to join the audio portion of the web conference, which will be presented by Joshua Hancher from CRISIL Global Research & Analytics. The agenda covers PPNR modeling components like balance sheet projections, net interest income, noninterest income and expenses. It also discusses scenario development and case studies from CRISIL GR&A on commercial loan forecasts and fair value of loans held-for-sale.
The document discusses COSO and its publications on enterprise risk management (ERM) and internal control. It summarizes COSO's definitions and objectives for ERM and internal control, and the key components and principles of each. It also examines the relationship between COSO and auditing standards, specifically how COSO maps to assertions used in risk assessment and how an auditor can leverage COSO during the risk assessment process.
The textile and apparel industry is the largest export industry and foreign exchange earner in Sri Lanka. It began modestly in the 1950s and grew significantly with economic liberalization policies in the 1970s and partnerships with international brands in the 1980s. The industry produces a wide range of clothing for major international brands. While it faces challenges from competitors and issues retaining its GSP+ status, the government is working to increase the industry's global market share through trade agreements and improving technology, branding, and support for small and medium enterprises.
The document provides an overview of a business diagnostic review to assess readiness for international expansion. It includes an analysis of the business model, SWOT analysis of internal and external factors, performance mapping of key operations, and strategies for market entry, cultural engagement, and exiting the market. The review evaluates the balance of customers, capacity, and cash flow as well as time targets, ambitions, valuations, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
Political risk refers to complications faced by businesses and governments due to political decisions and changes. In Bangladesh, representative democracy is not properly exercised, resulting in frequent political unrest that disrupts business. Corruption is also widespread. As a result, foreign investment is low and local businesses struggle. Recent violence between political parties has killed over 100 people and damaged over 1500 vehicles and other property. The unstable political environment poses major challenges and risks for foreign investors in Bangladesh.
Businesses and governments face many political risks. Understanding of these risks helps in managing them in a better way. http://i-strategic.com/ highlights some of the most common political risks.
The textile and apparel industry in Sri Lanka is a major driver of the economy, providing over 300,000 direct jobs and 600,000 indirect jobs. It contributes 39% of industrial production and 43% of total exports. The industry is dominated by women, who make up 85% of the workforce. It began growing significantly in the 1980s when Sri Lanka became an attractive outsourcing destination due to its open economic policies and trade-friendly environment. The United States is the largest importer of Sri Lankan textiles and apparel, accounting for 76% of exports. The industry is concentrated in the western province and large companies dominate.
Political risk refers to actions by foreign governments that can negatively impact investments. This includes war, government seizures of property, restrictions on moving profits out of the country, contract repudiation, currency inconvertibility, discriminatory taxation, embargoes, expropriation of property, and nationalization. Companies can purchase various types of political risk insurance to mitigate these risks when investing abroad. Risk management strategies also include diversifying investments across several countries, negotiating protection clauses in contracts, and pursuing bilateral investment agreements between the home and host countries.
This document provides an overview of country risk analysis. It discusses the history and sources of country risk data, including rating agencies. Various methodologies are described for analyzing economic, financial, and geopolitical factors that influence a country's risk level. The document outlines the key components of a comprehensive country risk analysis, including evaluating a country's economic policies, financial system, and strengths/weaknesses. The overall goal is to assess risk exposure and set appropriate pricing for credit or investment decisions involving that country.
1) The document discusses the causes and effects of the 2008 global financial crisis, comparing it to the 1929 crash. It analyzes factors like loose regulation, risky lending practices, and accounting standards that contributed to hidden economic bubbles bursting.
2) Going forward, the document recommends measures like improving supervision, reforming compensation schemes, and coordinating international regulatory alignment to prevent future crises and promote recovery.
3) While short term economic pressure is expected, stimulus packages and a focus on innovation could help economies recover once clean up of bank balance sheets is complete. Risk management practices will also likely be overhauled.
We develop an ordered logit model to examine the dynamic evolution of the credit rating of Greek Government Bonds under various macroeconomic scenarios
This document discusses country risk management and assessment. It defines country risk as political and economic uncertainty that can affect loans and investments. It lists political and economic risk indicators such as inflation rates and government stability. Methods of assessing risk include analyzing debt factors, balance of payments, economic performance, and political instability. Country risk is distinguished from firm-specific credit risk. Ratings systems and indexes are used to evaluate country risk, along with both quantitative and qualitative factors. Reducing country risk involves controlling local operations and intellectual property.
This document summarizes a presentation by Gita Gopinath at the Banco Central do Brasil on tackling high inflation in emerging markets. It discusses how emerging markets have fared relatively well in the current tightening cycle due to earlier monetary policy tightening. However, inflation has proven persistent, arguing for maintaining tight monetary policy. The document also examines how monetary policy should respond to potential financial stresses and the role of fiscal policy in fighting inflation.
PIRAEUS BANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ASSESSMENT MODEL: 2016 RANKINGSIlias Lekkos
The aim of this study is to provide clarity and transparency as to the methodology developed by Piraeus Bank in order to assess the financial strength, balance sheet quality and capital adequacy of a large number of -mostly European- financial institutions.
The methodology developed allows shortlisting the “preferred” financial institutions and ranking them each year from “best” to “worst”.
Having created the shortlist, the findings can be further used for the following three purposes:
To select fixed income instruments issued by the shortlisted institutions to be included in Piraeus Bank’s fixed income investment strategy
To use this shortlist as a starting point for the equity selection process of the above financial institutions
And last but not least, to evaluate current and potential counterparties for the wholesale banking division
Generating income for your portfolio in a late-cycle marketnetwealthInvest
Learn how you can defend your portfolio in times of heightened market volatility and explore the different types of fixed-income investments with Paul Chin, Head of Investment Strategy and Research at Jamieson Coote Bonds.
Relatório da Economist distribuído a grandes bancos diz que Brasil tem “alto ...diariodocentrodomundo
Um relatório anual da revista The Economist distribuído aos bancos coloca o Brasil numa posição de “alto risco operacional” devido à pandemia da Covid-19.
O documento alerta sobre o que pode acontecer na América Latina após o coronavírus: “Haverá ‘cicatrizes’ econômicas de investimentos e perdas de capital humano, e grandes mudanças setoriais, à medida que alguns setores avançam enquanto outros lutam.”
Essas crises às vésperas das eleições podem provocar uma onda de mudança. “Em um grande ano eleitoral para a América Latina, os riscos políticos já estão se tornando evidentes. O risco político é alto à medida que os eleitores protestam contra os governantes e pedem mudanças, dando espaço para que as propostas populistas prosperem”, diz a Economist.
Segundo a revista, um dos maiores fatores de risco para o continente é a baixa eficácia dos governos federais no combate ao vírus. No caso do Brasil, Bolsonaro é citado nominalmente e acusado de “enfraquecer as instituições democráticas”.
1 Cinemark Holdings Inc. Simulated ERM Program .docxoswald1horne84988
1
Cinemark Holdings Inc.: Simulated ERM Program
Ben Li, Assistant Vice President of Compliance, is assigned the responsibility of developing an ERM
program at Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CHI). Over the past year, Ben has put in place the following ERM
activities:
Risk Identification and Assessment
The risk identification and assessment process steps are as follows:
1) Conduct online surveys of the heads of the 10 business segments and their 1-2 direct reports (15
people) and their mid-level managers (80 people). Exhibit 1 shows the instructions that are
included in the online survey. Exhibit 2 shows samples of the information collected from the
online survey.
2) Each of the 10 business segments separately organizes and compiles the results of the online
survey. They typically compile a robust list of 70-80 potential key risks. Each business segment
then prioritizes their top-5 risks and reports them to Ben Li, resulting in a total of 50 key risks (a
partial sample of the top-50 risk list is shown in Exhibit 3).
3) A consensus meeting is conducted where the 50 risks are shared with the top 10 members of
senior management in an open-group setting at an offsite one-day event. The 50 risks are each
discussed one at a time, after which the facilitator has the group collectively discuss and score
them for likelihood and severity. The risk ranking is calculated as the likelihood score plus the
severity score; the control effectiveness score is used to determine if there is room to improve
the controls and is used in the risk decision making process step. The top-20 risks are identified
as the key risks to CHI and are selected for additional mitigation and advanced to the risk
decision making stage. A Heat Map (see Exhibit 4) is provided to assist in this effort.
4) The 30 risks remaining from the 50 discussed at the consensus meeting are considered the non-
key risks, and these are monitored with key risk indicators to see if, over time, either the
likelihood and/or severity is increasing to the level which would result in one of these being
elevated to a key risk.
Risk Decision Making
Ben Li formed a Risk Committee to look at the risk identification and assessment information and to
define CHI’s risk appetite and risk limits, which were defined as follows:
Risk Appetite
CHI will maintain its overall risk profile in a manner consistent with our mission and vision and with the
expectations of our shareholders.
Risk Limits
CHI will also avoid any individual risk exposures deemed excessive by its Risk Committee; the individual
risk exposures will be determined separately for each key risk. CHI has zero tolerance for risks related to
internal fraud or violations of the employee code of conduct.
2
Ben Li expanded the role of the Risk Committee to also select and implement the risk mitigation for each
of the 20 key risks, at the same time as the committee determines the risk limits. .
Securities Clearing and Settlement Systems and Long Term Local Currency Bond ...SDGsPlus
The document discusses trends in long-term local currency bond markets after the 2008 financial crisis. It notes that direct bank lending to emerging markets has declined while bond market inflows have increased. Local currency bond markets and domestic capital markets have potential to play a greater role in long-term financing. Clearing and settlement infrastructure is essential to develop long-term local currency bond markets by mitigating risk, facilitating liquidity, and supporting access by international investors. While clearing and settlement systems generally functioned well during the crisis, areas for improvement include risk management, governance, and cooperation across authorities.
This document discusses approaches for measuring and managing systemic risk from an economic perspective. It outlines network analysis, portfolio modeling using market data, and macro stress testing approaches. It also discusses plausible mitigation strategies like hedging, collateral management, and central clearing counterparties. Specific examples are provided on modeling local contagion, ranking financial institutions by systemic risk under baseline and stressed scenarios, and assessing the impact of sovereign defaults. Collateral management strategies like haircut valuation under baseline and stressed conditions are also examined.
Roland berger eurofinas-rb-europeancf_survey2018_publicreportAdam Kuszyk
An interesting study on consumer financial products. Margins, growth rates, competition, changing customer experience. Projection from 2015 to 2018. Soon, edition of 2018 will be available with a projection of 2021. I am glad that I could be a participant in both.
Since the previous Intrum Justitia and Oliver Wyman report in 2008, Retail and SME credit
markets across Europe have been hard hit by the banking and government debt crises.
New lending and growth stagnated across developed European countries, though signs
of recovery are now emerging. Non-performing loans are a significant ongoing issue,
particularly in Southern European markets.
The document provides an outlook for global banks in 2021, noting that while strong bank balance sheets and government support programs have limited downgrades so far, continued economic weakness or asset quality stress as support winds down could lead to more negative ratings actions. The recovery for banking systems will be slow, uncertain, and uneven. Near-term risks include a worsening pandemic, long-term effects of support programs, higher corporate insolvencies, and stress in the property sector. Low interest rates will squeeze bank profitability for many years. The pandemic is accelerating digital transformation in banking. While regulators have taken a pragmatic approach, consensus on regulatory approaches could fragment further globally.
This document discusses financial soundness indicators (FSIs), which are intended to provide summary measures of the soundness of financial institutions and markets. It outlines the history and development of FSIs, including their introduction following crises in the 1990s. The document describes the IMF's process for selecting core and encouraged FSIs and coordinating their compilation among member countries. It notes progress made but also issues that have arisen, such as limitations of the data. The document concludes by discussing plans to review and potentially revise the FSIs to address lessons from the recent crisis and better capture systemic risks going forward.
This document discusses financial soundness indicators (FSIs), which are intended to provide summary measures of the soundness of financial institutions and markets. It outlines the history and development of FSIs, including their introduction following crises in the 1990s. The document describes the IMF's process for selecting core and encouraged FSIs and coordinating their compilation among member countries. It notes progress made but also issues that have arisen, such as limitations of the data. The document concludes by discussing plans to review and potentially revise the FSIs to address lessons from the recent crisis and better capture systemic risks going forward.
Analysing and managing riscal risks: best practices - Johann Seiwald, IMFOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Johann Seiwald, IMF, at the 12th Annual Meeting of OECD-CESEE Senior Budget Officials held in Ljubljana, Slovenia, on 28-29 June 2016
Crisis and Emergency Management| How best to manage Risk| paul young cpa, cga
The document discusses crisis management and how to best handle crises. It defines crisis management as planning for and responding to crises or emergencies. It notes that the public sector has historically been poor at crisis management due to a short-term focus on elections rather than long-term planning. The document recommends that all governments and businesses implement comprehensive risk management frameworks including crisis management policies, and that external auditors review these frameworks. It also suggests using new technologies like AI, RPA, and scenario planning to improve crisis preparedness.
Hubungan antara kenaikan peringkat kredit dan penurunan biaya utang (cost of debt) telah dibuktikan. Kenaikan satu tingkat peringkat kredit diperkirakan dapat menurunkan yield SBN dan biaya pinjaman luar negeri sekitar 75-150 basis poin. Perbaikan peringkat kredit dan penurunan risiko negara Indonesia telah mengurangi biaya pendanaan dan membuka akses ke sumber pembiayaan baru.
This document provides country risk classifications for 188 countries that are participants in the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits. Each country is assigned a risk classification number from 0 to 7, with 0 being the lowest risk. The classifications are determined by the OECD and are valid as of October 28, 2011. The classifications help determine the terms and conditions for officially supported export credits.
Teks tersebut membahas kasus hukum yang menimpa dua pegawai KPPN yang divonis bersalah atas kasus korupsi penggunaan anggaran negara. Teks tersebut juga mengkritik putusan hakim dan menilai pegawai KPPN hanya melaksanakan tugas sesuai SOP tanpa adanya unsur kesalahan.
Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang peringkat kredit dan klasifikasi risiko negara (country risk classification/CRC). CRC digunakan untuk menilai risiko investasi di suatu negara berdasarkan faktor-faktor ekonomi, keuangan, dan politiknya. OECD memperbaiki peringkat CRC Indonesia dari level 5 menjadi 4 karena pertumbuhan ekonomi positif Indonesia di tengah krisis global.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Confirmation of Payee (CoP) is a vital security measure adopted by financial institutions and payment service providers. Its core purpose is to confirm that the recipient’s name matches the information provided by the sender during a banking transaction, ensuring that funds are transferred to the correct payment account.
Confirmation of Payee was built to tackle the increasing numbers of APP Fraud and in the landscape of UK banking, the spectre of APP fraud looms large. In 2022, over £1.2 billion was stolen by fraudsters through authorised and unauthorised fraud, equivalent to more than £2,300 every minute. This statistic emphasises the urgent need for robust security measures like CoP. While over £1.2 billion was stolen through fraud in 2022, there was an eight per cent reduction compared to 2021 which highlights the positive outcomes obtained from the implementation of Confirmation of Payee. The number of fraud cases across the UK also decreased by four per cent to nearly three million cases during the same period; latest statistics from UK Finance.
In essence, Confirmation of Payee plays a pivotal role in digital banking, guaranteeing the flawless execution of banking transactions. It stands as a guardian against fraud and misallocation, demonstrating the commitment of financial institutions to safeguard their clients’ assets. The next time you engage in a banking transaction, remember the invaluable role of CoP in ensuring the security of your financial interests.
For more details, you can visit https://technoxander.com.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
Markets rallied in May, with all three major U.S. equity indices up for the month, said Sam Millette, director of fixed income, in his latest Market Risk Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Explore the world of investments with an in-depth comparison of the stock market and real estate. Understand their fundamentals, risks, returns, and diversification strategies to make informed financial decisions that align with your goals.
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksAny kyc Account
This presentation explores the pivotal role of KYC compliance in shaping and enforcing global regulations within the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. Dive into the intricate connection between KYC practices and the evolving legal frameworks governing the crypto industry.
Discovering Delhi - India's Cultural Capital.pptxcosmo-soil
Delhi, the heartbeat of India, offers a rich blend of history, culture, and modernity. From iconic landmarks like the Red Fort to bustling commercial hubs and vibrant culinary scenes, Delhi's real estate landscape is dynamic and diverse. Discover the essence of India's capital, where tradition meets innovation.
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?Newman Leech
Newman Leech's success in the real estate industry is based on key lessons and principles, offering practical advice for new investors and serving as a blueprint for building a successful career.
11. Quantifying Country Risk MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance 30% 70% Overall Country Risk Rating Political Risk Rating Transfer Risk Rating Political Factors Political factor A Political factor B Political factor C Financial Factors Financial factor A Financial factor B Financial factor C Weights 30% 50 20 Weights 30% 40 30
34. International Country Risk Guide: RCI MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance Composite Political, Financial and Economic Risk Rating with weighted average Coup d’état FORECAST
35. OECD Credit rating MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance 1997 Knaepen Package= convergence on the pricing of officially supported medium and long term export credits. One of the key elements of the Knaepen Package is a system for assessing country credit risk and classification of the countries into 7 categories . The Country Risk Classification Method measures the country credit risk, i.e. the likelihood that a country will service its external debt. The Country Risk Classification Method uses an econometric model based on quantitative indicators, e.g. the financial and the economic situation and the payment experience of the countries and takes account of possible qualitative factors, e.g. political and other economic and financial factors not included in the quantitative Econometric Model. The details of the Country Risk Assessment Model are confidential and not published. http://www.oecd.org/document/49/0,2340,fr_2649_34169_1901105_1_1_1_1,00.html
36. OECD Credit rating MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance The final classification, based only on valid country risk elements, is a consensus decision of the sub-Group of Country Risk Experts that involves the country risk experts of the Participating Export Credit Agencies. The sub-Group of Country Risk Experts meets several times a year. These meetings are organized so as to guarantee that every country is reviewed each time a fundamental change is noticed and at least once a year. The meetings are confidential and no official reports of the deliberations are made. 8 country risk categories from 0 (no risk) to 7 (high risk)
37. OECD Country risk classification in 2008 MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Greece Austria Czech Rep Chile China Israel Algeria Morocco Albania Bolivia Haiti Cambodia Belgium Canada France HongKong Hungary Poland South Africa Brazil Peru Panama Philippines Indonesia Pakistan Cameroon Niger Nigeria USA UK Trinidad & Tobago Thailand Russia Romania Vietnam Argentina Kuwait Mexico Malaysia Mexico Bulgaria Guatemala Gabon RCI
48. The 9 pillars of global competitiverness MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance Hard + Soft DATA : Public debt + REER + interest rates + inflation + savings rate + legal and Regulatory framework + infrastructure + Education system and management schools….
65. Fraser Institute’s Index of Economic Freedom MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance Source: http://www.fraserinstitute.ca/shared/readmore.asp?sNav=pb&id=852
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67. UNDP – HDI MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance 154. Haiti 155. Gambia 156. Senegal 157. Eritrea 158. Rwanda 159. Nigeria 160. Guinea 161. Angola 162. Tanzania, U. Rep. of 163. Benin 164. Côte d'Ivoire 165. Zambia 166. Malawi 167. Congo, Dem. Rep. of the 168. Mozambique 169. Burundi 170. Ethiopia 171. Chad 172. Central African Republic 173. Guinea-Bissau 174. Burkina Faso 175. Mali 176. Sierra Leone 177. Niger 1. Norway 2. Iceland 3. Australia 4. Ireland 5. Sweden 6. Canada 7. Japan 8. United States 9. Switzerland 10. Netherlands 11. Finland 12. Luxembourg 13. Belgium 14. Austria 15. Denmark 16. France 17. Italy 18. United Kingdom 19. Spain 20. New Zealand
68. HDI- Life Expectancy 1970-2005 MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance 1970-75 2000-05 Norway 74.4 79.3 Iceland 74.3 80.6 Australia 71.7 80.2 Ireland 71.3 77.7 Sweden 74.7 80.1 Canada 73.2 79.9 Japan 73.3 81.9 United States 71.5 77.3 Switzerland 73.8 80.5 Netherlands 74.0 78.3 Finland 70.7 78.4 Luxembourg 70.7 78.4 Belgium 71.4 78.8 Austria 70.6 78.9 Denmark 73.6 77.1 France 72.4 79.4 Italy 72.1 80.0 United Kingdom 72.0 78.3 Spain 72.9 79.5 New Zealand 71.7 79.0
69. HDI- Life Expectancy 1970-2005 MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance 1970-75 2000-05 Senegal 40.1 55.6 Eritrea 44.3 53.5 Rwanda 44.6 43.6 Nigeria 42.8 43.3 Guinea 39.3 53.6 Angola 37.9 40.7 Tanzania, U. Rep. of 49.5 46.0 Benin 47.0 53.8 Côte d'Ivoire 49.8 46.0 Zambia 50.2 37.4 Malawi 41.8 39.6 Congo, Dem. Rep. of the 46.0 43.1 Mozambique 40.7 41.9 Burundi 44.1 43.5 Ethiopia 43.5 47.6 Chad 40.6 43.6 Central African Republic 43.5 39.4 Guinea-Bissau 36.5 44.6 Burkina Faso 43.8 47.4 Mali 38.0 47.8 Sierra Leone 35.4 40.6 Niger 38.4 44.3
70. COUNTRIES X & Y: A multi-index composite graph MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance
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75. Nord Sud Export: export country risk MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance Risk classes Type of risk rate 7 Very low risk (eg: OCDE) From 541 to 700 6 Low risk From 431 to 540 5 Moderate risk From 381 to 430 4 Rather high risk From 321 to 380 3 High risk From 271 to 320 2 Very high risk From 161 to 270 1 Dangerous risk From 1 to 160
76. Nord Sud Export: investment country risk MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance Export Investments Sovereign risks (15 criteria) 30% 10% Market risks (15 criteria) 40% 30% Political risks (15 criteria) 10% 30% Business environment (15 criteria) 20% 30%
79. MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance Heritage Foundation established since 1985, in partnership with the WSJ, an economic freedom index for some 160 countries, both industrialized and developing. The ranking is based on ten socio-political and economic criteria, including political stability, state interference, investment codes, regulatory framework, institutional strength, and corruption scope. www.heritage.org PricewaterhouseCoopers’s Opacity Index measures the lack of clear, accurate, formal and widely accepted practices in a country’s business environment. As such, it focuses on the relative state of corrupt business practices, the transparence of the legal system and the quality of the regulatory framework. It measures the resulting extra risk premium that stems from additional business and economic costs. www.opacityindex.com/ The Institute for Management Development’s World Competitiveness Report analyses 49 industrialized and emerging economies around the world based on a far-reaching survey since 1989. Its analysis of the institutional framework addresses issues such as state efficiency, transparency of government policy, public service’s independence from political interference, bureaucracy as well as bribery and corruption. www.imd.ch
80. MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance Freedom House since 1972 monitors the progress and decline of political rights and civil liberties in 192 countries. FH publishes an annual survey of the Progress of Freedom in the world. The ranking is based on a wide survey of regional experts, consultants, and human rights specialists. Political stability and civil liberties are ranked on a scale of 1 (best) to 7 (worst). www.freedomhouse.org/ratings/index.htm The Political and Economic Stability Index of Lehman Brothers and Eurasia measures relative stability in around 20 EMCs by integrating political science theories with financial markets developments. The monthly evaluation uses both quantitative and qualitative criteria, including institutional efficiency, political legitimacy, economic performance, and government effectiveness. www.legsi.com Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) specializes in strategic business information and analysis in East and Southeast Asia, with emphasis on corruption and business costs. Annual risk reports survey over 1,000 senior expatriates living in to obtain their perceptions of corruption, labor quality, intellectual property rights risks and other systemic shortcomings. www.asiarisk.com
81. MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI) provides a Political Risk Index assessing the social and political environment of a country. It is built on the opinion and scores provided by a hundred experts with a diplomatic or political science background. Governance quality is included into political risk analysis along with government effectiveness and social indicators. http://www.beri.com Political Risk Service’s risk analyses cover a hundred countries and are updated on a quarterly basis. International Country Risk Guide measures and tracks corruption perception in government, law and order, expropriation risk, as well as the quality of bureaucracy. These measures stem from the subjective assessment of experts around the world. http://www.prsgroup.com WORLD BANK: Given its unique policy dialogue with more than 180 countries, the Bank has developed a comprehensive database of composite governance indicators, measuring perceptions of voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and corruption. www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/
82. MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance The London-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) provides a comprehensive é-year forecasting country risk analysis on some 100 EMCs., on a quarterly basis. The EIU method flows from expert’s answers to a series of 77 predetermined qualitative and quantitative questions. http://www.eiu.com To look upon governance and corruption, Moody’s takes into consideration the structures of social interaction, social and political dynamics, as well as the economic fundamentals. Moody’s relies on the judgment of a group of credit risk professionals to weigh the various risk factors as well as the impact of each of these factors upon business prospects. http://www.moodys.com Standard and Poor’s rating approach is both quantitative and qualitative. It is based on a checklist of 10 categories, including governance and political risk. The political risk factors gauge the impact of politics on economic conditions, as well as the quality of governance and the degree of government support in the population. S&P assigns short term and long-term ratings. http://www.standardandpoors.com
83. MH BOUCHET/CERAM-Global Finance Euromoney publishes ratings of some 180 countries since 1982 on a semi-annual basis. The methodology is built from a blend of quantitative criteria and qualitative factors coming from surveys with about 40 political analysts and economists. Political risk receives a 25% weighting, as much as economic performance. Countries are graded on scale from 0 (worst) to 100 ( best). www.euromoney.com Institutional Investor ’s ratings are published twice a year since 1979 to assess the creditworthiness of about 150 countries, based on a survey of some 100 international bankers’ perception of creditworthiness, including economic, financial and socio-political stability criteria. The resulting score scales from zero (very high chance of default) to 100 (least chance of default). www.institutionalinvestor.com Transparency International , a non-profit non-governmental organization in Berlin, provides an annual survey of corruption practices in nearly 90 countries since 1995. The Corruption Perception Index is based on a wide network of information sources with local NGOs, domestic and foreign corporations, investors, and business contacts. www.transparency.org