This presentation is supplemental to the 2040 Socioeconomic Study completed by Transport Studio at the request of the Valdosta-Lowndes Metropolitan Planning Organization. More information is on our website at www.sgrc.us/transportation.

1. Valdosta-Lowndes MPO
2040
Socioeconomic Data Study
VLMPO Policy Committee
October 29, 2013

2. Agenda
• Why?
• What?
• How?
• Results!

3. Why do you need socioeconomic data?
• The need for transportation improvements
• People and jobs create trips
•
•
•
•
How many?
When?
Where from?
Where to?
• Federal funding
• Federal requirements
• GDOT regulations

4. What kind of data?
• Population and employment
• Base and existing year data
• 2010 base year
• Today’s updates
• 2040 horizon year projections
• Interim year projections

5. Planning Data
Transportation
Comprehensive planning
• Population and households
• Housing
• Gender
• Age
• Race
• Educational attainment
• Labor force
• Income
• Employment
•
•
•
•
Service
Retail
Manufacturing
Wholesale
• Student enrollment

6. How? LRTP Data and Projection Process
• Base year data
• Determine horizon year
control totals
• Distribute growth to zones
• Traffic analysis zones or TAZs
• Verify and revise
• Develop interim year data

7. Various Population Projections

8. Horizon Year Population – Lowndes County

9. Horizon Year Population – Model Area
2010 Travel Demand Model Area Population 110,780
2040 Travel Demand Model Area Population 154,820
40% increase in thirty years

10. Major Assumptions
• Household and employment growth follow population growth trend
• Ratio of jobs to housing in region
• Kinds of jobs in region
•
•
•
•
Service
Retail
Manufacturing
Wholesale
• Growth Areas
• Densities
• Dwelling units per acre
• Jobs per acre

11. Horizon Year Targets (2040)
Lowndes 149,288 146,302
TDM Households
Wholesale
Employment
Retail Employment
Service
Employment
Manufacturing
Employment
TDM Employment
TDM Population
County-wide
Population
Travel Demand Model (TDM) Area Variables
76,082
5,057
50,025
19,634
1,366
59,472
Berrien
24,514
841
1
0
1
0
0
342
Brooks
17,644
3,720
65
3
44
2
16
1,512
Lanier
13,868
3,959
5
0
1
4
0
1,609
205,314 154,822
76,153
5,060
50,071
19,640
1,382
62,936
Total

12. Wholesale
Employment
Retail
Employment
Service
Employment
Manufacturing
Employment
TDM Total
Employment
Households
TDM
Population
TDM
VLMPO Travel Demand Model (TDM) Area
2010
110,780
45,040
54,340
3,610
35,730
14,010
990
2040
154,820
62,940
76,150
5,060
50,070
19,640
1,380
Households and employment follow population growth trend in the region

16. Land already
developed -ornot suitable for
development
Future population
and employment
distributed to
zones
Land suitable for
development
Developable land
by Growth Area
and other
parameters

17. Distribute
Growth to Zones
A. Growth Areas within
zone boundary
B. Suitable and
available for
development
C. Developable acres
within each Growth
Area are assigned
jobs or housing
D. Developable acres
with access to water
or sewer service
may be assigned
jobs or housing
A
D
B
C

18. Population 2010

19. Population Density 2010

20. Population Density 2040

22. Employment Density 2010

23. Employment Density 2040

24. Findings
• Identified Growth Areas will accommodate most growth by 2040
• Some households assigned to areas zoned residential with existing access to
water or sewer service
• Service jobs assigned to areas with existing access to water or sewer service
based on zoning
• Industrial Growth Areas contain more land than will be needed by
2040 for projected manufacturing and wholesale jobs

25. Recommendations
• Consistent Census boundaries and traffic analysis zone boundaries
• Update Census boundaries to reflect real life conditions if applicable
• Adjust zone boundaries as needed
• Evaluate Growth Areas during plan update(s)
• Evaluate land use scenarios with VLMPO travel demand model
• Evaluate policies and development patterns through comprehensive planning
process
• Continue coordination with MAFB and other major employers

26. Thank you
Corey Hull, AICP
229-333-5277
chull@sgrc.us
Whitney Shephard, PE, LEED AP
912-677-0430
whitney@transportstudio.net