The Metropolitan Council forecasts population, household, and employment growth for the next 30 years to help plan regional infrastructure and guide local planning. Models are used to project growth at the regional and local levels based on economic trends, demographics like aging and smaller households, and interactions between land use, transportation, and the real estate market. The forecasts estimate the Twin Cities region will gain 370,000 households and 500,000 jobs by 2040, with growth expected across both urban and suburban areas. Local plans must be consistent with the Council's forecasts, though opportunities exist to provide feedback and request adjustments.

1. Forecasting the next 30 years
of metro development
Ramsey County
March 1, 2016
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2. Today’s discussion
• Why and how Met Council forecasts
• What data are considered in the
regional and local forecasts
• Particularly interaction of land plans,
market forces, transportation
• A view on the future: Forecast results
• Your questions
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3. Why we forecast
• Forecasts provide a reference as the
Council and local governments prepare
plans “addressing areas and populations
to be served, the levels, distribution, and
staging of services” (Minn. Stat. 473.146)
– Regional systems are scaled and staged to
accommodate forecasts
– Local plans accommodate the same growth
forecasts
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4. Metropolitan Council
How we forecast: models
• Models represent real-
world questions in a
simplified way…
– Key components
– System interactions
– Big-picture view
• Allowing freedom to…
– Test alternative scenarios
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5. Forecast models toolkit
A regional economic model for
region-level employment and population
A land use model for allocating
future land use, households and
employment to the local level
Travel demand
model
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6. Employment growth: +32%
2,033,000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Millions
Source: 2010 employment counts from Minnesota Department of Employment and
Economic Development; 2020-2040 forecasts from Metropolitan Council (July 2015)
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7. Population growth: +28%
3,652,000
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Millions
Source: 2010 data on population and households from Census Bureau;
2020-2040 forecasts from Metropolitan Council (July 2015)
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8. Households growth by type
229,000 244,000 238,000 249,000
280,000 292,000 278,000 289,000
418,000 426,000 439,000 462,000
90,000
134,000 193,000
236,000
100,000
162,000
229,000
249,000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Age 65+: 2+ person
household
Age 65+: 1 person
household
Under 65: 3+ person
household
Under 65: 2 person
household
Under 65: 1 person
household
Source: 2010 data on population and households from Census Bureau;
2020-2040 forecasts from Metropolitan Council (2015)
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9. Need for a local land use model
Totals from the regional model
are allocated to local zones
• Complete “loop” of transportation
and land use interaction
• Local land use model provides
distributions of people and jobs to
travel demand model
• Travel demand model returns
future network conditions,
accessibility measures
Population
Households
Jobs
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10. Households, 2040
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11. Met Council’s local land use model
• Key dynamics and components
of real estate market
• Where will we add 500,000 jobs
and 370,000 households?
– Site selection of households and
employers: what locations best
satisfy preferences, mediated by
prices?
– Supply of real estate: what locations
are viable to developers?
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12. Local data informs the model
Housing by type
Housing by type
Rent Equivalent Average (Weighted)
GISLibrary.DBO.TAZ2000
WRENTSFD
Less than 1,400
1,400 to 1,799
1,800 to 2,199
2,200 to 2,599
2,600 to 4,000
Rent for SF home
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13. Local data informs the model
• Base year land supply
• Employment levels
• Socio-economic
characteristics
• Housing stock
• Building costs, land prices
• Average rents
• Land consumption rates
• Regional systems and
services
• Planned land use as a
constraint
• Accessibility, by car and by
transit
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14. Peak hour drive times to State Fair: 2030
• In the future: more
people, more jobs
• Concurrently, travel
times can worsen
• Cumulative
accessibility can
increase or
decrease
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15. Local plans provide the envelope for what
development is allowable, possible
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16. We also consider the urban form today as
the starting template for future growth
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17. Households Growth, 2010-2040
< 1,000 households
1,001 4,000
4,0018,000
8,00116,000
16,00140,460
• The region will gain
370,000 households
over 30 years
• Expect growth in all
parts of the metro
urban services area
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18. Current households + growth
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19. Growth in Ramsey County to 2040
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Households
Households growth
Ramsey
St. Paul
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Employment
Employment growth
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20. Some aspects of the local forecasts are
surprising – but consistent with larger
demographic and market trends
• Long-term demand – for both locations and
real estate types – will continue changing
• Long-term, the fastest growing market
segments want central locations, access to
destinations, and a mix of housing options
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21. Households growth: smaller, older
229,000 244,000 238,000 249,000
280,000 292,000 278,000 289,000
418,000 426,000 439,000 462,000
90,000
134,000 193,000
236,000
100,000
162,000
229,000
249,000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Age 65+: 2+ person
household
Age 65+: 1 person
household
Under 65: 3+ person
household
Under 65: 2 person
household
Under 65: 1 person
household
Source: 2010 data on population and households from Census Bureau;
2020-2040 forecasts from Metropolitan Council (March 2015)
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22. The next 370,000 housing units
• With this demographic
mix, most housing to
be added will be
multifamily or attached
housing
• This is an estimate of
long-term demand
• What developers have
supplied or will supply
could differ
Manufactured
housing
1%
Single
family
detached
29%
Multifamily and attached
70%
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23. 65 and over population: 2014
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24. 65 and over population: 2040
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25. AGE_65_UP / POPINHH
0 - 10%
10 - 20%
20 - 30%
30 to 40%
Over 40%
65 and over population: 2014
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26. AGE_65_UP / POPINHH
0 - 10%
10 - 20%
20 - 30%
30 to 40%
Over 40%
65 and over population: 2040
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27. 1 person households: 2014
HHSIZE_1 / HHTOTAL
0 - 20%
20 - 30%
30 - 40%
40 - 50%
Over 50%
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28. 1 person households: 2040
HHSIZE_1 / HHTOTAL
0 - 20%
20 - 30%
30 - 40%
40 - 50%
Over 50%
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29. • With retirement and aging come big changes in
how people spend their day – where they go, what
they do
• For community planners, considerations include:
– recreation, arts and entertainment demand in the
community
– transportation
– emergency services and social services.
– need for life cycle housing options
Aging: Planning considerations
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30. Growth in all parts of the region
2010-2040 forecasts from Metropolitan Council (July 2015 update)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Rural
Rural Center
Emerging Suburban Edge
Suburban Edge
Suburban
Urban
Urban Center
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31. Households Growth, 2010-2040
< 1,000 households
1,001 4,000
4,0018,000
8,00116,000
16,00140,460
• The region will gain
370,000 households
over 30 years
• Expect growth in all
parts of the metro
urban services area
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32. Engaging with local governments
• The Council requires local land use plans
be consistent with the Council’s forecasts
– Cities can achieve this consistency by
adjusting land uses, development intensity,
or future development staging
– Also, the Council is receptive to adjusting
local forecasts, as needed
– Our objective: Council and local planners
working from the same numbers
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33. Multiple opportunities to adjust
•Local governments were invited to
comment on forecasts in 2015
– 4 cities’ forecasts revised following system
statements comments
•Interim forecast revisions also possible
via plan updates or plan amendments
– 5 cities’ forecasts revised, August–February
– More adjustments likely
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34. More information
www.metrocouncil.org/forecasts/
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35. Forecasting the next 30 years
of metro development
Ramsey County
March 1, 2016
Todd Graham, Principal Forecaster
Todd.Graham@metc.state.mn.us
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