2014 August GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Educational Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through August 2014

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com
Agenda
1.  Introduction
2.  Demand: National Overview
3.  Demand for On-Line Programs
4.  Demand for On-Ground Programs
5.  Medical Assisting: Preview of Report
6.  Summary

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Key Demand Trends and Observations
1.  We added a data supplier, increasing our dataset by 10% to 34 million inquiries.
2.  Total inquiries in August declined sharply
3.  After several months of growth, projected conversions are flat to down
4.  Market share is shifting between on-line and on-ground programs.
5.  One of the industry’s largest programs, Medical Assisting, is poised for growth

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Who Is Gray?
GrayData
Completions
IPEDS
Employment
BLS/O*NET
Placement Rates
Gray Research
Industry Inquiries
GrayReports
Demographics
US Census
Job Postings
WANTED Analytics
Students Programs StrategyLocations
§  Demographic
priorities
§  Geo-priorities
§  Market share
§  City selection
§  Location selection
§  Relocation analysis
§  Consolidation
§  Program ideation and
selection
§  Feasibility studies
§  R&D
§  Market reports
§  Business strategy and
implementation
§  Acquisition analysis
§  Pricing
§  Outcome improvement
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Education Institutions and Investors
Mission
Help clients do well by doing good

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What is GrayReports?
Over 34 million qualified inquiries (up 10%)
January 2012 to the present
Over 950,000 new inquiries in August
Over 185 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries

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Agenda
1.  Introduction
6.  Summary

GRAY
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Education Industry Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2013
2014
Education Industry Inquiry Growth
Inquiry volumes continued to decline in August.
§  Inquiries for the first eight months of 2014 declined approximately 6% year-over-year.
§  In July, the industry recorded a 10% year-over-year decline.
§  In August, that decline expanded to 16% year-over-year.
2012
-16% YOY

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1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry).
Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates
Inquiries convert to applications over a period of time, typically flattening out in about four months.
§  About two-thirds of the inquiries that are going to convert do so in the month they are received.
§  By the end of the second month, 87% of the eventual conversions have happened.
§  After three months, only 5% more conversions are likely from that cohort of inquiries.
67%
87%
95%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Same Month Month 2 Month 3 Month 4
Cumulative Inquiry Conversion Norms

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2.8%
2.5%
2.9%
2.7%
2.8%
3.2%
3.1%
2.9%
2.7%
2.8%
2.7%
2.8%
3.1%
2.8%
3.3%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
3.1%
2.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
ApplicationRate
Education Industry Conversion Rates
2013 2014
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates
Immature Months1
Inquiry-to-application conversion rates have strengthened in 2014.
§  The first five months of 2014 are mature and outperformed 2013.
§  June, July, and August are not yet mature, Gray has forecast conversion rates for these months.
§  Our forecast suggests that June will be down YOY; July and August will be roughly flat YOY.
2.8%
2.7%
1.9%

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Education Industry Conversion Growth
Through May, conversion volumes beat 2013, but that pattern is likely to change.
§  Actual conversions are up year-over-year for every mature month.
§  June, July and August are not yet mature, our forecasts suggest that YOY conversions will drop.
§  We forecast that July-Aug. will also finish below the average for January thru May.
2012
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Education Industry Conversions
All Programs and Award Levels 2013 2014
Immature Months1

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A New Pattern: What Happened This Past Summer?
The previous charts highlighted two adverse trends this past summer:
•  After staying close to year-ago levels for the first six months of 2014, total inquiries dropped 10% below
year-ago levels in July, and 16% below in August.
•  After exceeding year-ago levels for the first five months of the year, it looks like inquiry conversions from
June and later will fall short of last year.
This chart indicates one potential reason for these trends.
June 8-14
June 29-July 5
July 20-26
Google Trends: Searches for “Corinthian Colleges”

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§  Recently price per inquiry seems to have stabilized at about $45.
§  August inquiry prices were $4.30 higher year-over-year, an 11% increase.
Average Price Per Inquiry
In 2014, price per inquiry jumped about 10% in June and has been steady since.
$42.35 $42.29 $42.20
$42.84
$41.79
$45.16 $44.79 $45.13
$30.0
$32.0
$34.0
$36.0
$38.0
$40.0
$42.0
$44.0
$46.0
Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Avg.PPI
Inquiry Prices
Average and YoY Change
2014 2013

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Average Cost-Per-Conversion
Cost-per-conversion improved during the first quarter but rose during the second quarter.
§  In Q1, cost per conversion declined, with March 2.8% below 2013.
§  Since then, cost per conversion has been rising year-over-year and month-over-month.
§  Our forecasts suggest this trend will continue, with cost-per-conversion rising to over $1,100.
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2013 $1,056 $1,198 $965 $1,026 $991 $1,007 $743 $1,047 $1,047 $1,037 $962 $910
2014 $953 $1,014 $938 $1,059 $1,114 $1,246 $1,264 $1,706
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Cost-Per-Conversion
$1,184 $1,100 $1,143

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Agenda
1.  Introduction
6.  Summary

GRAY
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Line Programs
2013
2014
On-Line Inquiries
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for on-line programs continue to post drastic declines.
§  So far in 2014, inquiries for on-line programs have dropped 24% YoY.
§  In August, they were down 40.8% YoY.
-40.8%
YOY

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1.8%
1.8%
2.1%
2.2%
2.1%
3.4%
1.9%
2.1%
2.0%
2.2%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
2.4%
2.5%
2.7%
2.2%
2.3%
1.0%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
ApplicationRate
On-Line Education Industry Conversion Rates
2013 2014
On-Line Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates
Immature Months1
Conversion rates were poor in the first two months of 2014, then strong in the next three months.
§  June appears likely to seriously underperform a very strong June 2013.
§  In contrast, July is ahead of 2013 and has two more months until maturity.
§  August is off to a slow start but has an opportunity to exceed 2013’s fairly low rate of 2.1%.

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Education Industry On-Line Conversion Growth
On-line conversion volumes are mostly down this year.
§  January through April reported year-over-year declines of greater than 15%.
§  May broke the pattern, with a 7% year-over-year gain.
§  June’s total is 50% below 2013 and is unlikely to close the gap.
§  July is likely to beat 2013, it is already close and will continue to convert for another month or two.
2012
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
On-Line Conversions
Immature Months1

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On-Line Average Price Per Inquiry
2014 on-line inquiry prices are consistently higher than 2013.
§  Prices spiked in June but have drifted back down in July and August.
§  2014’s average price is up 14% year-to-date over the same period in 2013.
$43.20 $44.24 $43.46
$45.61 $44.15
$51.31
$47.46
$45.44
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
Avg.PPI
On-Line Inquiry Prices
2014 2013

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2013 $2,258.73 $2,153.90 $1,914.17 $1,863.25 $1,931.78 $1,074.51 $2,104.74 $2,033.94 $2,093.29 $1,865.82 $2,067.43 $2,079.81
2014 $2,428.59 $2,573.29 $1,828.16 $1,829.96 $1,626.35 $2,384.26 $2,037.87 $4,526.70
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
On-Line Cost-Per-Conversion
On-Line Average Cost-Per-Conversion
Cost-per-conversion for on-line programs has improved in recent months.
§  In March, April and May cost-per-conversion beat 2013.
§  June was unusually low in 2013; this year it will probably end considerably higher.
§  July 2014, which has two more months until maturity, is already 3.2% below 2013 totals.
Not Fully Mature

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Largest On-Line Programs: August Growth
In July, three of the five largest on-line programs were down by more than 45% YoY.
§  On a brighter note, Registered Nursing inquiries are up 89% year over year.
§  The decline in Medical Assisting may be ending, inquiries were down only 1%.
-23% -18%
62%
-9%
-3%
-47%
-67%
89%
-1%
-58%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Business Admin. &
Mangement
Criminal Just./Police Sci. Registered Nurse Medical/Clinical Assistant Accounting
Five Largest Programs
August Inquiries: Year-over-Year Change
2013 YoY % Change 2014 YoY % Change
1. Includes only programs within the top 75 for total inquiries since January 2012.

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Top 5 Fastest-Growing On-Line Programs in August
The five fastest-growing programs1 all grew 70% or more year-over-year in August.
§  Three of the programs grew more than 100%.
§  Three health care programs were on the list of fastest growing programs in August.
§  Computer Systems, Networking and Telecommunications have made the list two months in a row.
-81% -84%
40% 62%
-28%
664%
227%
104% 89% 70%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
Comp. Systems Network
& Telecom.
Network and System
Admin.
Health Professions & Rel.
Prog.
Registered Nurse/RN Nursing Assistant
Industry Inquiries
Fastest Growing Programs – August 2014

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On-Line Program Fastest-Growing Cities of the Top 75
The “fastest-growing cities1” for on-line programs were actually the ones that declined the least.
§  Once again, the “fastest growing markets” for on-line programs actually declined year-over-year.
§  These markets lost nearly a third of their total inquiries.
-1%
-30%
-23%
-17%
-34%
-31% -37% -37%
-38% -38%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Louisville, KY Greensboro, NC Cincinnati, OH Richmond, VA Tucson, AZ
Industry Inquiries
5 Highest Growth Markets – August 2014
1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.

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Largest Cities for On-Line Programs: August Growth
Inquiry volumes posted steep declines in the five largest markets in August.
§  Each market reported a decline of greater than 40%.
§  New York was hit the hardest—down over 54%.
§  In August 2013 the five largest cities had a 6.5% market share. This shrank to 5.4% in Aug. 2014.
-24.4% -24.6%
-29.0%
-34.4%
-29.6%
-54.2%
-41.5%
-51.0% -53.1%
-48.0%
-70.0%
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
New York, NY Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX
Change in Industry Inquiries
5 Largest Markets
12 Months Ending August 2014
1. Includes only cities in the top 75 for inquiry volume since January 2012 within a 15 mile radius for all award levels nationally.

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Agenda
1.  Introduction
6.  Summary

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Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
Inquiries for on-ground programs remain a bright spot.
§  The first eight months of 2014 have produced an 8.4% year-over-year increase in inquiries.
§  The second quarter of 2014 outperformed Q2 2013 by 18%.
§  However, August recorded a 7% year-over-year decline in inquiries.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
2013
2014
-7%

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3.9%
3.4%
4.2%
3.7%
3.8%
3.5%
4.8%
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.8%
4.1%
4.0%
3.7%
4.1%
3.5%
3.2%
3.0%
3.1%
2.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Inquiry-to-
Application
Conversion Rate
Education Industry On-Ground
Conversion Rates 2013 2014
On-Ground Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates
Immature Months1
Conversion rates for on-ground programs are mixed compared to last year’s.
§  January and February were up over 2013.
§  March through May were down compared to the prior year, June and July are likely to follow suit.
§  August is off to a strong start but may not reach last year’s high-point, which was set in July 2013.

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Education Industry On-Ground Conversion Growth
On-ground conversion numbers are up this year.
§  January through May all reported year-over-year increases in conversions.
§  June is not yet mature but has already exceeded 2013 volumes by 3%.
§  July is unlikely to exceed 2013, which was last year’s high-watermark with 18,485 inquiries.
§  August is off to a strong start and is likely to meet or beat last year.
2012
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
On-Ground Conversions
Immature Months1

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On-Ground Average Price Per Inquiry
August is the first month of 2014 where on-ground inquiry prices exceeded $40.
§  August is 12% above its 2013 inquiry prices.
$38.07 $37.04 $38.07 $37.34 $36.08 $37.73 $39.31 $40.22
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Avg.PPI
On-Ground Inquiry Prices
2014 2013

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On-Ground Average Cost-Per-Conversion
Since April, average cost per application for on-ground programs has been trending higher.
§  Through March, cost per conversion was lower in 2014 than 2013.
§  In April and May, cost per conversion started to rise—exceeding $1,000 and up year-over-year.
§  June, July, and possibly August are immature, but are likely to continue this trend.
2013 $1,056 $1,198 $965 $1,026 $991 $1,007 $743 $1,047 $1,047 $1,037 $962 $910
2014 $953 $1,014 $938 $1,059 $1,114 $1,246 $1,264 $1,706
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
On-Ground Inquiry Cost-Per-Conversion
Not Fully Mature

GRAY
On-Ground Largest Programs: August Growth
In August, two of the five largest programs declined by more than 15% YoY.
§  Registered Nursing programs experienced the strongest growth of nearly 63%.
§  Med. Office Assistant/Specialists programs grew over 39% YoY.
0%
-2%
26%
-3%
22%
-16%
-7%
63%
-28%
39%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Medical
Assistant
Business Administration Registered Nurse Criminal Justice Medical Office
Assistant
Five Largest Programs
August Inquiries: Year-over-Year Change

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Top 5 Fastest-Growing On-Ground Programs in August
The five fastest-growing programs1 all grew over 60% year-over-year in August.
§  Two are traditional hands-on trade programs: Welding and Electrical Technician.
§  Registered Nursing makes another appearance as a fastest-growing program.
§  Finance and Management Science round out the list.
-50% -37%
35%
338%
26%
298%
216% 202%
70% 63%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Welding Tech. Finance, General Electrical, Electronic &
Comm. Eng. Tech.
Management Science Registered Nurse
Industry Inquiries
Fastest Growing Programs – August 2014

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Fastest-Growing Cities for On-Ground Programs
Among the 75 largest cities, the fastest-growing cities1 are all up over 25%.
§  All of the fastest-growing markets were located in either California or Texas.
§  The market share for the fastest-growing cities increased from 1.8% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014.
1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.
-25%
17% 21%
56%
-9%
145%
111%
44% 44%
27%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
San Diego, CA San Antonio, TX Riverside, CA Fresno, CA Austin, TX
Industry Inquiries
Highest Growth Markets – August 2014

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Largest Cities for On-Ground Programs: August Growth
Inquiry volume declined in three of the five largest markets in August 2014.
§  Los Angeles recorded strong year-over-year growth of 16%.
§  New York grew 4%.
§  Atlanta, Chicago, and Philadelphia experienced declines between 19 and 34 percent.
-1%
5%
-9%
-18%
-8%
16%
4%
-21%
-34%
-19%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL Atlanta, GA
Change in Industry Inquiries - Five Largest Markets
12 Months Ending August 2014
1. Includes only cities in the top 75 for inquiry volume since January 2012 within a 15 mile radius for all award levels nationally.

GRAY
Agenda
1.  Introduction
6.  Summary

GRAY
§  There is room for growth in Medical Assisting programs.
Medical Assisting Report: Emerging Opportunity
-
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
2011 2012 2013
BLS Employment!
Job Postings!
Completions!
Placed Completions!
Job Postings,
Completions,
Placements for
MAs
BLS
Employment
for MAs
Growing
Employment
Opportunity

GRAY
§  We will also provide profiles of the top 100 markets in the US.
Medical Assisting Report: Local Profiles
us 19
Input Title
51.0801
Completions Placement Wages
Demand
Demand1
Growth
20131
Completions
Weighted1
Average
Past112B
Month1Job1
Postings
Job1
Postings1
Growth1
(YoY)
BLS1Total1
Employment
BLS1
Annual1Job1
Openings JOG1Ratio Growth
10th1
Percentile
Number1of1
Competitors
18B341
Year1Olds
Completions1
Per11,0001
Pop1(18B34)
Las3Vegas5
Henderson5
7,514 9% 1,038 58.0% 1,426 55.6% 2,463 143 0.1 3.5% $24,440 7 466,0033 2.2
100% 36,198 110% 8,437 100% 6,831 151% 19,174 1,103 1.7 5.8% $29,570 1 3,784,102 0.2
95% 25,663 36% 2,758 81% 4,392 48% 7,692 462 0.6 4.7% $26,478 4 1,311,627 0.7
90% 16,098 25% 1,931 78% 3,295 37% 5,734 362 0.5 4.5% $25,114 4 964,224 1.0
80% 8,419 15% 1,379 73% 2,336 25% 4,013 255 0.3 4.2% $24,470 6 709,984 1.2
70% 6,862 9% 1,080 72% 1,502 18% 3,262 191 0.3 4.0% $23,901 7 522,611 1.3
60% 5,317 4% 721 69% 1,036 13% 2,599 158 0.2 3.8% $22,698 8 458,626 1.5
50% 3,888 B1% 589 68% 813 9% 2,215 127 0.2 3.7% $22,242 11 392,558 1.8
40% 2,991 B4% 446 66% 647 4% 1,739 114 0.2 3.4% $21,768 13 292,814 2.0
30% 2,419 B7% 336 65% 493 0% 1,478 89 0.2 3.2% $21,125 16 256,004 2.2
20% 1,508 B14% 289 61% 405 B7% 1,087 63 0.1 3.0% $20,820 21 213,508 2.6
10% 852 B22% 141 59% 296 B15% 793 45 0.1 2.7% $20,108 26 175,853 3.1
0% 129 B41% 24 47% 25 B68% 380 19 0.1 2.3% $16,150 62 128,417 6.3
Description
Select
Las1VegasBHendersonBParadise,1NV
Medical3Assisting
de
Medical3Assisting353Las3Vegas5Henderson5Paradise,3NV
Wanted3Analytics Employment
A3program3that3prepares3individuals,3under3the3supervision3of3physicians,3to3provide3medical3office3administrative3services3and3perform3clinical3
duties3including3patient3intake3and3care,3routine3diagnostic3and3recording3procedures,3pre5examination3and3examination3assistance,3and3the3
administration3of3medications3and3first3aid.33Includes3instruction3in3basic3anatomy3and3physiology;3medical3terminology;3medical3law3and3ethics;3
patient3psychology3and3communications;3medical3office3procedures;3and3clinical3diagnostic,3examination,3testing,3and3treatment3procedures.
Percentile
Employment3Opportunities
Inquiries
Student3Demand
Population
Competitive3Intensity
Employment1
per11,0001
Pop1(18B34)
Jo
5.3
9.3
7.8
7.4
6.7
6.3
6.0
5.7
5.4
5.0
4.5
4.0
1.7

GRAY
Medical Assisting: Opportunity or Liability?
§  Introduction and Executive Summary
§  Overview of Medical Assisting
§  Health Care Industry Trends
§  Job Market for Medical Assistants
§  Student Demand
§  Market Size and Competition
§  Placement Outcomes
§  Associate’s Degree vs. Non-Degree Programs
§  Best Practices for MA Student Success
§  Profiles of the top 100 Markets
§  Appendixes
–  MA Certifications
–  MA Student Demographics
–  Are Top-Performing MA Programs Just Lucky
Medical Assisting Report: Table of Contents

GRAY
Agenda
1.  Introduction
6.  Summary

GRAY
Key Findings
Inquiry quality is improving and shifting from on-line to on-ground programs.
§  Overall inquiries are down 16%, conversion rates are flat—leading to a decline
in conversions.
§  Online inquiries and conversions continue to drop sharply.
§  Inquiries for on-ground programs are more stable.
§  One of the largest programs in the industry--Medical Assisting--is poised for
growth
•  Completions are down 25%
•  Jobs are growing rapidly

GRAY
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§  Customized for your locations
§  Customized for your programs
§  Monthly PDF overview of inquiry, application, and pricing tends in your markets
§  On-line access to your market data by program, campus, veteran’s status, years since
high school and other factors

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact me:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
617-401-7662
For the presentation or a recording of the
session, please visit:
GrayAssociates.com

2014 August GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

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2014 August GrayReports - Student Demand Trends