A recent conference paper depicting the next technology horizon especially in healthcare, how the new industrial internet era, vertical urban farming and mesh-networked driverless integrated public transport will reshape our congested megacities into liveable carbon-capture mega-systems, and bring our buildings to Life...

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& IT conference1
2014 Technology & IT Conference
Current & future directions of technology in the sector
Rydges Sydney Airport | 24 March 2014
Head Consultant, Management & Technology | GDN consulting firm
Systems Integrations
The Next Horizon

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Global risks
Megatrends
Content

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Content | Other reference

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global risks

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2014 Global Risks Map
Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2013 / 2014 (World Economic Forum)

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Top 10 Global Risks
Environment /
sustainability
Financial /
Economic
Geo-political
Societal
Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2013 / 2014 (World Economic Forum)

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sustainability

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Human population
Biosphere
regeneration
Human
consumption
~ 1.3 times
what
the planet
can sustain
Net loss
28%
Steadily growing since mid 80’s
Source: Simms A., NEF (New Economics Foundation), London
Earth Profit & Loss
2014 based on Averaged human lifestyle

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Resources & multi-polar geopolitics dichotomy

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Real world & economic dichotomy
“Irredeemable money has almost invariably
proved a curse to the country employing it”
Fisher, I. 1911, The purchasing power of money
Economy Real World
The continuous economic growth delusion
fiat (irredeemable) money system
M.V = Pr.Q
Quantity Theory of Money
I = Po.A.T
Ehrlich / Holdren equation
or P = M.(V/Q)
Derived Theory of Inflation

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A way out of the monopoly conundrum?
Economy Real World
M.V = Pr.Q
Quantity Theory of Money
I = Po.A.T
Ehrlich / Holdren equation
M.V = Pr.Q I = Po.A.T
Re-link currency to a tangible specie
(Unit of Sustainable Biosphere)
ey
M = monetary mass in circulation
V = velocity of money in circulation
Pr = price index
Q = quantity consummed expressed in physical unit
a = fixed exchange rate
U = unit of sustainable biosphere
R = regenerated biosphere
I = impact of human activity
B = biosphere size
Rj = biosphere regenerative index
Po = human population size
A = affluence factor expressed in currency
T = technological factor expressed in CO2 emmission
M.V = Pr.Q
M = a.U
U = R-I
R = B.Rj
I = Po.A.T
 The top-down equivalent of a new Bretton-Woods
 Recent G20 proposal failures (Zhou Xiaochuan)
 “Too many Chefs in the kitchen”

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Disconnected physical & financial worlds
ETR (Ecological tax reform)??
EIA (Environmental impact assessment)??
Inter-sector policies, new institutions, legal reform??
IM (Industrial metabolism) ??
VA (Voluntary agreement) ??
EE (Ecological economics) ??
 Climate change
 Financial crises
 Social instabilities
 Major fiscal imbalances
 Ineffective multi-polar geopolitics

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climate change

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The 2º C tipping point
2 x unstoppable feedback loops kick-in:
 Deep ocean Methane release
 Permafrost CO2 release
°C
Eq CO2
2°C
Runaway CC

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How are (24 x ) biggest emitters tracking?
Latest estimate  3.7º C increase
Source: Climate Action Tracker | Climate Analytics, Ecofys Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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Potential
reforestation
Food growing
Habitable
zones
Inhabitable
deserts
Inhabitable
floods, droughts
extreme weather
Land lost to
rising waters
(2m assumption)
a map of climate change risks
The World 4ºC warmer
Source: New Scientist Climate Change Report, 2009

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Climate change risks & demographics
• Since 2008, more people in cities than rural areas
• 95% cities located in climate change risk zones

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Climate change risks & geo-political instabilities

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ageing world

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Ageing population & major fiscal imbalance risks
Worker (15 to 64) to Retiree (64+) dependency ratios
Source: UN, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, 2013

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New market
megatrends

22. 2014 Technology
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be where the client wants you to be when they want you to be there
The rise of multi-channeling (Clicks & Bricks)
& direct sourcing (personal tailored manufacturing)
 Disruptive global digital neo-economics including conventional barter resurgence
 New global redeemable digital currencies & economic dematerialization
 Generalised crowdsourcing along the entire value chain
 3D printing manufacturing revolution & IP challenge
 3D printing of live tissues & organs (Bio-printing)
The new Maslow’s

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Industrial metabolism & economic dematerialization
P&L (US$ b)
Net sales 100
GP 25
Labor 8
Marketing 5
Others 7
Tot Exp 20
NIBT + 5
Balance sheet (US$ b)
Assets 70
Current 20
Fixed 50
Liabilities & Equity 70
Current 10
Long-term 30
Equity 30
Physical accounting
measured in physical units
Triple Bottom Line
Planet People Profit
 Product research, recycling, energy needs
 Build-To-Order 3D printing manufacture
 Blurred demand & supply chains
 Shortening product lifecycle
 Crowdsourcing research
 Reclaimed / recycled construction material
 Recycling-conscious building design
 On-site renewable energy sources
 Low energy consumption
 Waste reduction
 Telecommuting
 Carbon-neutral
Modal shift to low-carb co-transportation
“Predictive forecast”-driven logistics

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The rise of agile micro internationals
& SOLO* | SOHO** | SME***
 Small is Beautiful
 ~0.5b businesses globally, but…
 By 2020  4.6b global workers, 88% (4b) in knowledge-based jobs
 A new type of workforce  freelance-able, on-demand & independent
 Evolving industry organizations with deeper involvement in members’ affairs
* SOLO = Solo-Entrepreneur
** SOHO = Small Office Home Office
*** SME = Small & Medium Enterprises
88%
(4b)

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The rise of the machines 1/3
Courtesy: GE, 2012, Industrial Internet White Paper

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The rise of the machines 2/3
The Internet of Things
IPv4 (4.3b addresses)  IPv6 (3% in 2014)
Big Data Analytics
Deep domain expertise & learning algorithms
merging genomics & informatics
6th level normalization & above
Mobile connecting
technology
Smart information
Smart machines

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Rise of the machines 3/3  Healthcare perspective
* Source: 2011, OECD Health Data, Health Spending Per Capita by source of funding
US$
731b
Estimated global
healthcare system
current inefficiencies

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Metropolis & Mobility
The integrated
new megacity

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 Evolving from net emitters to carbon-capture mega-systems
 Sustainable autonomous flexible re-configurable buildings
 Integrated vertical urban farming (edible + bio-fuels)
The rise of the sustainable integrated megacities
95% cities located in climate change risk zones
 Ideal candidates to tackle the issue
1. 40% water needs reduction
2. Biosphere size increase
3. Carbon-capture system

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population & mobility asynchronous trends
The hyper-connected World
Connectedness + telecommuting
 Decrease in travel
Sydney – London in 2 nanoseconds
P = physical movement
I = mass of information in circulation
 IP f
1

Higher demand for small
fuel-efficient cars or for
no cars at all
(Millennial cliff)
46%
* Source: 2012 New York Times Research Millennial preferences
18~24 y-o US drivers choose
access to the Internet
over owning a car *

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Urban mobility  the new horizon
• Congestion-free cities replace end-users as the new automotive clients
• Integrated mass individual + public urban transport
• Self-guided vehicles for ageing population
• Fluid mechanics applied to traffic flows
• End of the ubiquitous traffic light

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Real life example | Commercial driverless cars
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3HdqeZMNco
 5 x US driverless laws since Dec 2013
 CES 2014  9 x driverless models
 Google new driverless economics

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Living space
The integrated
ALIVE building

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Integrated building | Embedded robotics
Integration between mobile & fixed (security, lifts, doors) systems
Royal North Shore Hospital | St Leonards
http://youtu.be/w1zupfTftcY

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Integrated building | Inverted Info flow 1/2
 The imminent end of the ubiquitous KVM (Keyboard, Video, Mouse)
 Pervasive embedded sensor, data-collecting & connecting technology
 Integrating systems by connecting medical sensors to applications
The Old KVM paradigm

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Integrated building | Inverted Info flow 2/2
 The advent of “Big Data Analytics” & “smart information”
 “Smart information” routes itself to the right users
 The entire building becomes a workstation
 The building is “alive” & cares
 NUI* & embedded VR / AR**
* NUI = Natural User Interface
** VR = Virtual Reality AR = Augmented Reality

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Integrated building | The new (G) NUI*
* GUI = Graphical User Interface NUI = Natural User Interface

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Real life example | Thomas Holt Kirrawee site
• Integrated self-aware, self-healing & self-maintaining “alive” building
• Technology & IT consulting involved at pre-design stage
• High, subacute & palliative focus in line with trends
• Client needs & information flow drive architecture
• Residents & workforce friendly design

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Aged-friendly modular stair-less radial design
self  supported living  subacute  end-of-life (same room)
Existing Homes | Rebuild or retrofit
Or ….

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Existing Homes | Rebuild or retrofit… Or?Wearable exoskeletons

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Summary  Recommendations
Marketing / Business Development
1. Identify & engage with your audiences experientially & digitally (public, clients, contacts, workforce, partners)
2. Shift from informational website to integrated transactional multi-device online presence
3. Align / Embed with your business development & marketing strategies
4. Think 360º client solutions not just RESIDENTIAL
5. Diversify both service offering & funding base
Organizational / Operational perspective
1. Scrutinize your entire value chain including organizational framework & its integration with your supply chain
2. Consider strategic in & out-sourcing across all functions | lobby / leverage of your industry association/s
3. If you’re yet to do so, shift to paperless fully electronic operations across all functions
Assets
1. Be strategic & forward looking  Your building will be around for decades
2. Involve your IT & technology people at design brief stage
3. Think laterally & literally outside the square

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