The document discusses how exponential technologies are accelerating at an increasing rate due to factors like Moore's Law, convergence of technologies, and new business models. It outlines seven forces that are further amplifying this acceleration, including saved time, availability of capital, and communications abundance. The document also predicts five major migrations over the next 100 years as a result of these trends, such as climate migrations, virtual worlds, and a potential "meta-intelligence" through brain-computer interfaces.
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The Future Is Faster Than You Think Book Summary
1. The Future Is
Faster Than
You Think
Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler
Book Summary
2. Once a technology becomes digital – that is, once it can be programmed
in the ones and zeros of computer code – it hops on the back of Moore’s
Law and begins accelerating exponentially.
We use our new computers to design even faster new computers, an this
creates a positive feedback loop that further accelerates our acceleration.
Ray Kurzweil, director of engineering at Google, calls it the ‘Law of
Accelerating Returns.’
3. Formerly independent waves of exponentially accelerating technology are
beginning to converge with other independent waves of exponentially
accelerating technology.
For example, the speed of drug development is accelerating not only
because of biotechnology, but also because AI, quantum computing and
other exponentials are converging on the field.
4. Our brain, which really hasn’t had a hardware update in two hindered
thousand years wasn’t designed for this scale or speed. And if we struggle to
track the growth of singular innovations, we’re downright helpless in the face
of the converging ones.
5. The Six Ds of Exponentials.
Digitization – once a technology becomes digital it jumps on the back of
Moore’s Law.
Deception – exponentials generate a lot of hype when first introduced, but
spend a long time failing to live up to it.
Disruption – exponentials disrupt existing products, services, market and
industries.
Demonetization – where a product or service once had a cost, now money
vanishes from the equation. (e.g. early photographs and digital
photography)
Dematerialization – physical products disappear. (iTunes dematerialized
Music Stores)
Democratization – this happens when exponential scales and goes wide.
6. The pace of change is accelerating due to three overlapping amplifiers.
First – exponential growth of computing power and new technologies.
Second – accelerating individual technologies converging with other
accelerating technologies, producing overlapping waves of change.
Third – a set of seven new forces, by-product of converging exponentials,
but acting as an additional accelerant.
7. Force #1 : Saved Time. Technology has shrunk innovation development
times and expanded the time innovators can devote to development. Its an
accelerating feedback loop of acceleration.
8. Force #2 : availability of Capital. Today its easier for innovators to fund
funding more than ever before. And this abundance is financing even more
innovation.
9. Force #3 : Demonetization. Nearly every basic business requirement –
energy, education, manufacturing, transportation, communication,
insurance and labor is growing cheaper.
10. Force #4 : More Genius. Until recently, most genius was squandered. One of
the by-products of our hyper connected world is that these extraordinary
individuals will no longer be casualties of class, country or culture.
Add to this developments in neurobiology and ‘brain-computer interfaces’.
11. Force #5 : Communications Abundance. If network size, density, and fluidity
have turned our cities into the best transformation engines we’ve yet
managed to create, then the fact that we are about to link the entire globe
intro a single network means the whole planet may become the largest
innovation lab in history.
12. Force #6 : New Business Models. Traditionally, innovation means the
discovery of breakthrough technologies or the creation of new products or
services. But today, we are creating new business models.
There are seven emerging models. The Crowd Economy, The Free / Data
economy, The Smartness Economy, Closed-loop Economies, Decentralized
Autonomies Organization, Multiple World Models, Transformation Economy.
13. 1. Crowd Economy. This includes crowd sourcing, crowd funding, ICOs,
leveraged assets and staff-on-demand – essentially, all the developments
that leverage the billions of people already online and the billions coming
online.
2. The Free / Data Economy. Platform version, essentially baiting customers
with free service and making money off the data.
3. The Smartness Economy. Taking any existing tool and adding a layer of
‘smartness’
4. Closed-loop Economies. Waste-free or cradle-to-cradle economies.
5. Decentralized Autonomous Organizations. AI / block-chain driven
systems without any human involvement.
6. Multiple World Models. We have real-life personae and online personae
and this delocalized existence is only going to expand with AR & VR.
7. Transformation Economy. If experience economy was about sharing
experiences, in the next iteration, you’re not paying for an experience,
you’re paying your life transformed by this experience.
14. Force # 7: Longer Lives. Extending the healthy human lifespan means
increasing the number of years we’re operating at peak capacity and
capable of making the greatest contribution to society.
15. But there are disruptions to our disruptions.
Technological unemployment, rogue AIs, Water crisis, climate change and
species die-off.
16. Over the next hundred years the Five Great Migrations will transform the
world as we know it.
Climate Migrations, Urban Relocations, Virtual Worlds, Space Migration and
Meta-Intelligence
17. Virtual Worlds. 321 million Americans already spend eleven hours online.
With greater potential of VR and new technologies, this adds up to another
great migration, an exodus of consciousness.
18. Meta-intelligence.
Technologies like BCI (Brain-computer interface) allow upgrades to human
brain capabilities. It could evolve into a migration with a cloud-based
collective consciousness.