Презентация директора USC Annenberg Innovation Lab Джонатана Таплина для конференции АДВ Future of Media 2014.

2. Sponsors
Research Supporters

3. The Edison Project
Research & Executive Education
“I find out what the
world needs, then I
proceed to invent.”
- Thomas Edison

4. This Should Be the Best of Times for the
Media and Entertainment Business
“For the first time, a majority of the world’s population
will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be
the most important social and economic sector in the
vast majority of countries around the world.”
- National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030

5. S I G N P O S T S O F T R O U B L E
“There's going to be an implosion where three
or four or maybe even a half-dozen
megabudget movies are going to go crashing
into the ground, and that's going to change the
paradigm.”!
- Steven Spielberg speaking with George Lucas at USC,
June 2013

6. The The Digital Interregnum

7. The The Old Gateway

8. The New Gateway
53% Facebook Ads, 46% You Tube Views

9. 5 Billion Smart Phones by 2016
1%@ 50 cents=$25 Million

12.
Cable Television
“Cord cutting used to be an urban myth. It isn’t
anymore.”!
- Moffett Research

13.
Television
“Is it reasonable for 75 million who
don’t want ESPN to pay for the 20
million who do, at a false price?”
– Barry Diller
If affiliate fees started to decline,
Disney could offer ESPN over-the-
top for $15/month, and keep all the
revenue.

14.
Home Entertainment
“Consumers are
choosing different ways
to watch our product,
and we’re not going to
see any one of them go
back to historical levels.”
Dennis McGuire, President,
Paramount Pictures Home
Entertainment

15.
On Demand World

16. Average viewers!
40 Million
Average Viewers!
8 Million

17.
Online Advertising
“With demand clearly growing as more ad dollars shift online and the
industry’s constant endeavors to increase the value of its ad inventory
through improved targeting, more creative executions, new ad formats
and effectiveness measurements – CPMs should be increasing. But this
is not happening. Why not?”
- Commscore, The Economics of Online Advertising

18. Per Capita Entertainment Expenditure
1998-18-34 cohort-$340/year!
!
2012-18-34 cohort-$232/year!
Source-Consumer Expenditure Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics!
Thought Experiment"
• What is the potential 2020 Home Entertainment Spend?!
• With 5 Billion Smartphones by 2016!
!
!
Top 10% spend $28/mo=$170 Billion!
Next 40% spend $10/mo=$240 Billion!
Bottom 40% generate $5/mo in Ad Revenue=$120 Billion!
Total=$530 Billion"
!
!
2012 Global Consumer spending on entertainment=$140 Billion"
Source:IHS Global

19. Hurdles to the Next Boom
1. The Curation Problem"
2. The Advertising Problem"
3. The Piracy Problem"
4. The Network Monopoly Problem

20. The Long Tail Is a Myth

21. Human
Man
Or
Machine
Price Discrimination

22. The Barriers to Change
Bots & Ad Supported Pirates

23. B Network Competition

24. IP TV

25. T H E N E W S C R E E N S
The Oculus Rift

26. S I G N P O S T S O F O P P O R T U N I T Y
The New Manufacturing

27. Could it be that the current
production and distribution system
is simply not capturing the
possibilities of this new world?

28. Research Pillars
The New Metrics
and Measurement
The New M&E Ecosystem
The New Screens
The New Creators
and Makers
The New Business
Models