3. FORESIGHT
NOW NEW NEXT, WHY, DRIVERS OF CHANGE, STEEP, JORDAN
DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
SCENARIOS
PLAUSIBLE FUTURES, 2 AXIS, NARRATIVES
4. FORESIGHT
CYCLES:
things which change and then change back (industry cycles)
ISSUES:
things which people disagree about (GM crops)
TRENDS:
things which change in one direction (increase in e-commerce)
EVENTS:
happenings that impact on the future (Kyoto Protocol, 9/11)
DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
NOW NEW NEXT
6. WHY INVEST IN FORESIGHT?
Better anticipate and manage change.
Build resilience into business strategies.
Pool ideas to drive business development.
Understand the different contexts we are moving towards.
Identify opportunities before or as they arise.
To proactively mitigate business risks.
Engage staff in debate and build consensus.
Generate momentum to support strategies and programmes.
DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
13. Client: HRH Princess Sumaya bint El Hassan, President of
El Hassan Science City
Brief:
- Support the National Agenda
- Identity issues, actions and research areas
- Educate a wide group of citizens
- Promote a national discussion on important issues
- Create a body of knowledge as a foundation for action,
- Developing a National information System
Output:
- Develop a resilient and meaningful national strategy.
- Foster innovations that contribute to economic growth.
- Empower local communities
Foresight contact: Paul Oliver
The National Campaign on Public Awareness
for the Drivers of Change
CASE STUDY: JORDAN NATIONAL CAMPAIGN
14. Stakeholders & participants
• Government ministries – senior civil servants.
• Local government – political and administration.
• Civil society – including local small businesses and service
providers, women‟s groups, refugee communities, NGOs and rural
communities.
• University undergraduates and postgraduates
• Pre-university students.
• Business – senior executives, wide range of industry sectors,
major players by % of GDP.
• Academics (university level) – multiple disciplines, including
social, demographics, science and economics.
• Jordanian armed forces – current and retired.
• Royal Jordanian Geographic Centre
• Department of Statistics
Page 14.
15. Waste: When does waste become a resource?
Page 15.
Research: Waste kg/person/day
Research: Energy
consumed in transportation
Research: Energy & water
consumed in reprocessing
Research: Capital cost of
reprocessing plants
Research:
Demographic
forecasts
Idea: Build a CHP
plant?
Idea: Charge for collecting
non-recyclable waste + pay
for recyclable waste?
Idea: Set up local
points for waste
sorting?
Idea: Public education to
consume less packaging?
Idea: Tax
packaging at
source?
Example output
16. FORESIGHT
NOW NEW NEXT, WHY, DRIVERS OF CHANGE, STEEP, JORDAN
DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
SCENARIOS
PLAUSIBLE FUTURES, 2 AXIS, NARRATIVES
18. Context
Business travel will
continue to grow.
How confident are we
in this official future?
What else could happen?
Insights
Choreographing Sensations
Susan Kozel, Artist, School of
Interactive Arts & Technology
Cars. That’s a Man’s World.
Mogens Laursen, Brand
Development Manger, Volvo
Guests of the Future
Simon Dannatt, CEO, Kae
Marketing Intelligence
Concepts
One Space
Fluid, open space with
interconnected rooms
We-hive
Plug-in rooms are organized
according to a network of tribes
Ego Hotel
Highly self-expressive guest
pods situated around
transportation hubs
Tactiles
Sensual space sensitive to its
guest‟s needs
Hotels of the Future
The Business Traveller
Hilton International, Copenhagen
19. Context
The role of the city as the
centre of commerce is
thousands of years old.
Why wouldn‟t it stay this
way?
Insights
High Street Success Factors
Christoph
Ackert, Chairman, Location
Services
Guerilla Retailing
Russ Miller, Vacant
A Never Ending Love Story?
Dieter
Geissbuehler, Architect, Alexander
Galiker DG und Partner
City Centre Retail Gazette
2025
Concepts
The Love Inn
Holistic leisure club and social
beauty centre
Spiral to Heaven
Comprehensive health check-
up retailing space
Digital Rough Guide
Culturally-sensitive shopping
guide for the global consumer
Empty Spaces
Disused space „mobbed‟ and
„swarmed‟ for social shopping
City Centre Retail 2025
Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute, Zurich
22. The Global Human Development Index (HDI)
combines three basic dimensions:
1) life expectancy at birth as an indicator of the
health and longevity of a population;
2) adult literacy and the gross enrolment in
primary, secondary and tertiary educational
institutions; and
3) standard of living, as measured by the natural
logarithm of the gross domestic product (GDP)
per capita at a purchasing power parity in US
Dollars.
Many consider this to be a much better evaluation of
the health of a nation or economy than solely the
23. Planetary Health represents the capacity of the
planet to support a wide variety of life, for
example, the number of species, bio-
diversity, pollution, abundance and fertility, etc. In
this context, we are interested in the carrying
capacity of the planetary system.
we also did an exhibition in a shipping container for design week in tokyo – we had a sushi bar conveyor carrying the cards plus blanks – we received 1200 issues over the duration of the 1 week show.
50-100 workshops to be held – we are coaching the Jordanian team facilitating the events.TouringDoC bus collating feedback on the ground.Web-site to support on-line community.
The multitude of workshops are all leading to the development of a set of drivers of change cards for Jordan. Whilst this provides a focus for the project team there are many other deliverables on route. In addition to the campaign aspect of raising awareness and inclusivity the output of the drivers raised at each workshop are also acting as input to establish research and innovation agendas. For example, an issue raises the question, which in turn leads to the identification of research requirements, which also informs the creation of ideas. The platform being developed for capturing issues driving change is also generating a platform for open innovation at the national scale to encourage new and emerging business.
The different worlds are created by selecting 2 issues that when mapped as opposites in a 4 square allow us to explore 4 very different worlds. One square will often be the official future – the other three are often difficult “hard to think about” scenarios that seem implausible to those working in the industry
for example between 2005 and 2008 we collected the opinion of 1000’s of people on where they thought we were today (e.g. C) and where they thought we were heading in 20 years time (e.g. C’) – the arrows show the trends of movement of votes from one quadrant to another.
