This document discusses techniques for accurately forecasting and tracking revenue and expenditures. It notes that forecasts are estimates that can be biased depending on who initiates them and their objectives. It recommends acquiring comprehensive data, identifying key variables, tying past trends to present and future estimates, building a range of estimates, updating forecasts regularly, and responding to actual changes rather than sticking to the original forecast. Examples are given for forecasting expenditures, payroll, and revenue over multiple years.

1. Revenue and Expenditures
Forecasting and Tracking
101
Kenneth Hunter, MPA
2014 Winter NCLGBA Conference

2. Politics of Forecasting
• Who initiates?
• What is their objective?
• How does this bias results?
• What’s the solution?
– Where’s budget v. finance?

3. Hunter’s Fundamentals of
Forecasting
• Forecasting is an ESTIMATE!
• Data & evidence matter
• Multiple perspectives are key
• Present analysis, never sell it

4. Building a Forecast
• Acquire dataset
• Identify known variables
• Tie past to present, then to future
• Build a range
• Update/revise regularly
• Remain honest

5. High End
Low End
Applied

6. Evaluation
• You know much less than you think
• Building compromised consensus
• Validity matters
• Respond to ACTUAL changes

7. Applied Examples
• Expenditures (end of year)
• Payroll (next year w/adjustment)
• Revenue (end of year, forward to
future years)