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The Economist  forecast for Russia Russia Today: Current Issues Key indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP growth (%) 5.6 -3.0 2.0 4.0 4.4 4.6 Consumer price inflation (av; %) 14.1 13.5 10.4 8.5 7.4 7.0 Budget balance (% of GDP) 3.6 -8.0 -3.0 -1.3 -0.8 -0.7 Current-account balance (% of GDP) 5.9 -2.2 -0.6 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Central bank refinancing rate (end-period; %) 13.0 12.0 11.0 9.0 8.5 8.0 Exchange rate Rb:US$ (av) 24.9 36.0 36.7 36.8 36.9 37.1 Exchange rate Rb:€(av) 36.5 48.1 50.8 52.1 53.4 54.5
Real Currency Appreciation  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ After the big bang”  by Hoff and Stiglitz ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How to Exploit Energy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Russia’s Future Role in the World Economy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Legal system ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Russia’s 2005 corruption  ranking by Transparency  International:   126 of 159 countries
Russian Trade Share of CIS countries in trade:  17%  Share of EU in trade:  52% Main exports 2007       % of total          Main imports 2007         % of total     Oil, fuel&gas     65.2          Machinery&equipment        43.9     Metals     13.5          Chemicals          12.0     Chemicals     5.5          Food/agricul prod         11.7     Machinery/equipment     5.0          Metals          6.6     Major markets 2007     % of total          Major suppliers 2007          % of total     Netherlands     12.1          Germany          11.9     Germany     9.6          China          10.9     Italy     7.8          Ukraine          6.0     China     5.0          US          4.2 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
"BRIC“ emerging markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
20% starting 2009
 
Intellectual property rights ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Intellectual property rights ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Demographic Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Male Life Expectancy: Russia vs LDC’s
Moscow vs. Rest: Life Expectancy
Foreign Direct Investment in Russian Industry
Investment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Problems foreign direct investors in Russia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Investment Rates in Selected Economies, International Prices
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Other Concerns
Climate Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact of Climate Change:  Melting Permafrost ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact of Climate Change:  More Precipitation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Climate Impacts Industries - Oil ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Industries - Timber ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Services - Transportation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Services - Tourism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Regional Income Disparities  Real Incomes in Some Russian Regions
Internal Migration in Russia and the U.S.  Percentage of total population that moved from one oblast/state to another each year ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Economic Priorities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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10 Russia Current

  • 1. The Economist forecast for Russia Russia Today: Current Issues Key indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP growth (%) 5.6 -3.0 2.0 4.0 4.4 4.6 Consumer price inflation (av; %) 14.1 13.5 10.4 8.5 7.4 7.0 Budget balance (% of GDP) 3.6 -8.0 -3.0 -1.3 -0.8 -0.7 Current-account balance (% of GDP) 5.9 -2.2 -0.6 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Central bank refinancing rate (end-period; %) 13.0 12.0 11.0 9.0 8.5 8.0 Exchange rate Rb:US$ (av) 24.9 36.0 36.7 36.8 36.9 37.1 Exchange rate Rb:€(av) 36.5 48.1 50.8 52.1 53.4 54.5
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Russian Trade Share of CIS countries in trade: 17% Share of EU in trade: 52% Main exports 2007      % of total        Main imports 2007        % of total    Oil, fuel&gas    65.2        Machinery&equipment       43.9    Metals    13.5        Chemicals        12.0    Chemicals    5.5        Food/agricul prod       11.7    Machinery/equipment    5.0        Metals        6.6    Major markets 2007    % of total        Major suppliers 2007        % of total    Netherlands    12.1        Germany        11.9    Germany    9.6        China        10.9    Italy    7.8        Ukraine        6.0    China    5.0        US        4.2 
  • 8.
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  • 10.  
  • 12.  
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. Male Life Expectancy: Russia vs LDC’s
  • 17. Moscow vs. Rest: Life Expectancy
  • 18. Foreign Direct Investment in Russian Industry
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. Investment Rates in Selected Economies, International Prices
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. Regional Income Disparities Real Incomes in Some Russian Regions
  • 31.
  • 32.