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RUSSIAN FEDERATION
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1 | P a g e
Russia is widely regarded as one of the most naturally endowed countries on the face of
the earth. As a country, the Russian Federation is blessed with the world’s largest natural gas
reserves, the second largest coal reserves, and the eighth largest coal reserves. As will be
alluded to later in this paper, this creates an opportunity for the economic scope of the country
to be “over-dependent” on the oil sector especially regarding exports. This, mixed with the
complications of a perceived vastly corrupt government creates a negative horizon for this
beautiful country. However, in the short-term horizon, oil will continue to be a significant part
of the Russian economy. It was recently reported that China will ink a $25 billion deal to
become the main importer of Russian oil via loans to oil companies.
Interestingly enough, the corruption of the Russian economy has not gone unnoticed.
Transparency International has a corruption perception index widely credited with putting the
public sectors of certain countries in the public view. It reiterates the fact that to most people,
the Russian government has significant improvements to make. The following information in
this paper an in-depth understanding of the economic impact of specific elements in the
Russian economy. Section 1 will give a macro-economic and trade-related view of different
characteristics of Russia. These were scholarly articles compiled from journalistic databases
such as Sciencedirect, ebescohost, and other sources. Section 2 gives an examination of trade
restrictions and disputes filed by the WTO by and against Russia.
2 | P a g e
Section 1: Russia at a glance:
In this section we use the IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the data from
OECD. Our observation period is 1992-2013. Some of the variables did not have data for the
whole observation period. In those cases we used everything that was indeed available.
In the empirical analysis we used the following variables: the growth rate of real GDP,
inflation, shares of imports, exports, and international trade in nominal GDP, terms of trade,
the current account, wage rates and manufacturing employment. Growth rate of real GDP is
calculated as the percent change in real GDP. Inflation rate is the percent change in the
Consumer Price Index (cpi). Exports are calculated as percent shares of nominal GDP, as are
imports. International trade is the percent share of nominal GDP occupied by the sum of
exports and imports. Terms of trade or the ratio of export prices to import prices was obtained
from the OECB. The current account is roughly the sum of exported goods and services minus
imports. It is expressed as a percent of nominal GDP. Data for manufacturing wages was not
available, so the wage rate was used instead. The IFS data for the wage rate was expressed as a
percent change over the previous period. Change in manufacturing employment was calculated
as a percent change in the index.
Descriptive statistics of the variables are summarized in Table 1. The average inflation
rate for the Russian Federation, or Russia, was 82%, and a standard deviation of 196. Changes
in wage rates show similar distribution patterns, with an average of 80% and standard deviation
of 179. However, it is important to note that changes in inflation, wages, imports, and exports
all exhibit similar patterns over the observation period. Their maximums occur in the early
3 | P a g e
1990s coinciding with the formation of the Russian Federation. Then they plummet drastically
and from the late 1990s forward they exhibit considerably less volatility.
Section 2: Literature Review
In an article by Vladimir Shlapentokh (1997), he explains that after the fall of the Soviet
Union, Russia as a society opened up to the world in numerous ways. The transition since 1992
has been very unstable for the Russians and their economy as a whole. Openness to
international trade is always viewed as beneficial to a society in comparison to a closed
economy. Through trade with other countries, it is possible for Russia to improve their quality
of goods and services, as well as experience profits from items that they have a comparative
advantage in. As with any aspect of trade, there is the probability that every transaction doesn't
end positively. In this case, openness in Russia has also lead to many consequences that
threaten their economy in many different aspects relative to importing and exporting a variety
of goods. With the shift in Russia’s openness to the world today as opposed to its former closed
economy, there have been many positive and negative results from international trade.
Before the dismantling of the Soviet Union majority of Russians could not leave the
country. Mikhail Gorbachev started to relax these restrictions in the 1980’s, but it was Boris
Yeltsin who provided a full-scale opening of society after the collapse of the Soviet Union
(Shlapentokh, 2012). One of the biggest changes converting from a closed economy to an open
economy was the ability to now travel abroad. Along with this of course came international
trade relationships with other countries. Glasnost (Openness in Russia) was seen as a great
opportunity, beneficial to Russia as well as other trade partners. This new open economy
4 | P a g e
promoted a substantial amount of economic growth stemming from increased production and
gains from trade.
As the new open economy began to emerge in Russia there have been some important
developments that can account for the positive and negative effects relative to international
trade. Globalization of the international economy is a real revolution in Russian life
(Inostrannye iazyki I poezdki za granitsu, 2011). Globalization has increased the flow of labor
migration as well as the flow of capital and consumer goods. Economic privatization has also
developed as a result of openness in Russia. This has increased corruption and uncertainty
within the country. Also a result of glasnost is the disappearance of a cohesive public ideology
that persuades people to be concerned about the interests of the country and society as a
whole (Green, 2011). This has both a positive and negative effects on Russia. Consumers have
been given the opportunity to buy diverse goods and services. Even Russian consumers with a
smaller amount of income will see the benefits relative to international trade because of low
prices as a result of comparative and absolute advantages.
As a result of globalization the negative consequences outweigh the benefits brought to
the Russian economy. The increased concentration on exporting oil and natural gas has opened
Russia to the “Dutch disease” of relying on fuel production to earn most of their revenue
(Kuvshinova, 2010). These are the main goods that the economy exports seeking gains from
trade. There is a huge uncertainty factor that comes along with these goods. The price and
production can easily be changed from a variety reasons for example a discovery of these goods
in another country or a substitute good. Russia relies heavily on the exports of oil and natural
5 | P a g e
gases, but if the relative price of these good decreases the Russian economy will suffer its
consequences.
In 1992 when the Soviet Union dissembled, Russians had many predictions for the
future of their economy. The openness has brought many new developments to the country.
They are an illustration of how Russians have adapted to the new economy. As a result of
openness there have been many benefits, for example Russian consumers have a higher utility
as well as higher nominal income in comparison to the previously closed economy. On the
other hand, it has introduced a plethora of negative consequences such as “Dutch disease”.
Although lucrative gains from trade have been seen from gas and oil, the negative impact of
openness wouldn’t affect Russia as much if the price of these goods were lower. As a result of
the openness in Russia’s economy compared to the closeness of its past during the Soviet
system, both a negative and positive impact on the country has been established.
Russia is heavily dependent on its export of oil and oil-related resources. Such
dependence in this sector has left Russia vulnerable to the trade implications that come along
with having your economy heavily dependent on a specific resource. Specifically, more recent
news has been uncovered with Russia and its vulnerability with self-imposed trade restrictions.
Russia is a powerhouse of natural resources, holding the world’s largest natural gas reserves,
second largest coal reserves, and eighth largest oil reserves. As reported by the Observatory of
economic complexity, their top five exports are composed of crude petroleum, petroleum gas,
coal briquettes, and semi-finished iron. Others include wheat, gold, diamonds, and iron.
Russia’s top five imports include cars, packaged medicaments, vehicle parts, computers, and
6 | P a g e
delivery trucks. Others include telephones, tractors, airplanes, helicopters and broadcasting
accessories.
Before entering the World Trade Organization, Russia was not able to capitalize on the
multilateral trading system provided by the WTO. This prevented Russia from taking advantage
of this unique opportunity. In an article by David Warner (2014), he explains that in with the
help of the government of Switzerland, Russia was able to become a member of the WTO in
August of 2012.
In an article by Deb Larson (2014), she expands on the notion that Russian behavior has
become hostile in the west, often rejecting help from diplomats representing US interests. She
also goes on to explain that there have been considerable “perceived slights.” This implies that
the Russian Federation has had the notion of being slighted by the U.S for a number of years.
Usually in cases of diplomacy, certain sacrifices have to be made by both parties in order for a
common ground to be reached. More on this subject, this may explain the idea that Russia has
been opposed the U.S. position of power in the United Nations, specifically its, “coalition-
building and diplomatic bargaining within international institutions to constrain the dominant
power (The U.S.).”
In a sense, the US is expanding on the already extensive list of sanctions on US exports
to Russia. This includes all items regulated on the US munitions list, high technology defense
articles, and many other articles that contribute to Russia’s military capabilities. To expand on
this subject, the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry Security (BIS) is further
restricting Russia’s imports of American technology. The BIS controls exports and re-exports of
7 | P a g e
commodities, technology, and software to support national security and foreign policy ,
including nuclear , chemical and biological weapons, and missile non-proliferation, human
rights, regional stability, and curbing terrorism. The BIS reports that the export sanctions, while
not interfering with the energy supply from Russia, does make it difficult for Russia to establish
stability with future long term projects. Other restrictions include vegetables, meat, fish, and
dairy products from twenty-eight countries in the European Union, Canada, Norway, and
Australia.
International trade in Russia has a number of disadvantages and also a number of
advantages. Depending on the angle one chooses to look at this topic from, either the benefits
outweigh the cost or vice versa. However, it will be useful to note that equal attention will be
given to the benefits as well as the costs of international trade in a country such as Russia.
The first cost or disadvantage of international trade in Russia will have to be the
association of corruption with Russian trade. It has been suggested that corruption in Russia
has been a persistent issue that has immensely affected the trade relations between Russia and
other trade partners (Judge et al., 2011; Levin and Satarov, 2000). Furthermore, as suggested by
Transparency International’s rankings in terms of Corruption Perceptions Index which ranks
countries based on how corrupt trade, public sector and economic practices are perceived to
be, Russia’s Corruption Perceptions Index was 136 out of 175 (Transparency International,
2014). It is also suggested that corruption in Russia is ubiquitous and indiscriminate, especially
among governmental parastatals in both local and international trade (Transparency
International, 2014).
8 | P a g e
Another cost to Russia during international trade is associated with the problems that
arise due to capital flights. This can be as a result of corruption in the economic system,
economic and political unpredictability, or prominent international trade with countries that
have a higher currency value. It has been suggested that the Russian government has struggled
to regulate capital flight by using two strategies: first by trying to change Russia’s financial
system and currency procedures; and second by coming up with more efficient state controls
over international trade. However, these actions have not been effective due to the absence of
legal structures and institutional capabilities that can monitor and in time regulate these
developments (Tikhomirov, 1997). Capital flights (especially when linked with international
trade) can be tied back to the problem of extreme corruption in the Russian economy.
Tikhomirov (1997) goes on further to suggest that arrangements for exporting capital under the
disguise of foreign trade, which solely banks on the mispricing of goods, was first known to
have originated in Russia during the 1991–1993 period. Exported goods from Russia were
intentionally priced lower, while the imported goods were purposely priced higher with the
exporter typically getting an additional fee as bribe. As a result of corruption in international
trade in Russia, capital flight is aggravated and this in turn will diminish Russia’s tax base,
increase Russia’s public deficit, decrease domestic investment and will ultimately destabilize
Russia’s financial markets.
Benefits associated with international trade in Russia include lower-priced imports and
new inward investment. Foreign trade between Russia and other countries will stimulate
economic growth by creating jobs in industries that are export-oriented. Foreign trade in Russia
also creates economic, political and financial alliances between Russia and its trade partners.
9 | P a g e
The European Union (EU) has been having trade misunderstandings with Russia over the
past years. The European Union (EU) is a global force to be reckoned with however, the EU has
been finding it quite problematic to influence Russia even though the EU is by far superior in
global power and influence than Russia in conventional terms (Leonard & Popescu 2007).
Leonard & Popescu (2007) go on to suggest that there are several factors responsible for this
dispute between the two entities. Some of them, as suggested are lack of unity, a poor strategy
management, and a misguided view of the significance of the power resources in a particular
circumstance. It has often been suggested that a critical weakness in the EU’s ability to use
power is its lack of unity. Even though the EU should act as a single entity in trade concerns, it is
still not a territorial state and its internal cohesion is fallible. Diverse member states can have
incompatible ideas about the preferred objectives, which impedes any coordinated action and
indicates a poor resolution in international disputes (Smith, 2001).
In an article by Forsberg Tuomas (2014), he expands on his belief that Russia’s
involvement in the Ukraine has put a strain on its relationship with The United States of
America and the European Union, which caused the US to put up sanctions on Russian Imports.
Russia’s response to these sanctions was to sanction its own imports from the countries that
sanctioned Russia. This all caused the Russian ruble to decline and Russia’s economy to fall.
The reason why the US, EU, and other countries sanctioned Russia was to diminish Russia’s
economy enough for Russia to leave Ukraine. In Mark Adomanis's article (2015), he explains
that this did in fact hurt Russia’s economy. The ones affected by these sanctions were Russia’s
Businesses. Large investors and energy companies could not do anything with Russia. Those
10 | P a g e
businesses started to lose money. Since these major businesses played a major role in the
Russian economy, the economy started to fall. With Russia being a top oil and natural gas
producer, over the past year, oil prices have fallen. Russia is receiving less money that what is
has been used to in the past years. This also hurt the Russian economy. With all this in effect,
the Russian ruble has also declined.
In accordance with this information, the nations that are directly involved in trade with
Russia are experiencing economic problems. The diplomatic strain the government has caused
has directly affected the lifestyle of the people that live there. The people living in Russia are
experiencing inflation. Money is not flowing around the Russian economy for people to buy
more things. More companies are backing out of Russia because Russia’s economy is collapsing;
even larger companies. They see that there is no benefit to stay in Russia based on the actions
of the Russian Government.
Russia’s response to the sanctions were to sanction its own imports from the countries that
sanctioned Russia. This is Russia thinking that they are a great power still while they are still
trying to get back to that position. A reason for Russia to react in this way could be because of
confusion of the actions from the west. The Russian government feels it deserves more respect
while simultaneously trying to rebuild as a country, but because of disagreements in western
governments, diplomatic warfare has ensued. Russia’s actions with this sanction have
demonstrated their belief that they can prosper without the help of certain countries. With
this, of course, Russia is forced to become a self-dependent state.
11 | P a g e
Russia’s hopes were that as a country they can be independent, however their actions have
resulted in the economic retraction they are experiencing. The worst part is that this may not
be the floor. In order for Russia to prosper, there has to be an infusion of capital, better trade
conditions for Russia and her partners, along with much needed entrepreneurial activity and
government assistance. The problem is with the current stance of the Russian government, this
is highly unlikely. Entrepreneurial activity needs time to have an effect on the economy. As Yury
Federov (2014) states in her article, it is the belief of Russian entrepreneurs that they must first
leave the country to improve their income, because Russia has a huge limit on its interactions
with other countries.
Section 3: Trade Characteristics and Disputes
Russia’s trade characteristics can be broken down into five essential main parts. These
include agriculture, energy, transport, science, and technology. Since its inception into the
WTO, population growth, higher domestic consumption, and a better functioning political
system has paved the way for Russia to improve as a country. 80% of its exports are oil, natural
gas, and metals. Although global oil prices have been declining, it still remains a significant part
of the Russian Gross Domestic Product. As a natural resource imbued country, the percentage
of exports dedicated to oil and mining may be reduced in the future, but more than likely it will
never be completely eliminated. In fact, in May of 2014, Russia and China inked a $400 billion
gas deal in which Russia will be China’s main supplier of oil for a very long time. Accession into
the WTO allows Russia to diversify the number of countries it can export to, while allowing for
the opportunity for economic growth.
12 | P a g e
The first element in Russian trade is agriculture. Although its importance in the export
aspect of Russian trade may be undervalued when compared to oil, the agricultural sector
provides many jobs to its citizens. Main components include wheat, barley, oats, potatoes, and
rye. As of 2000, Russia has emerged as one of the world’s premier exporters on grain with a
14% market share. The main focus of the government has been to improve domestic
production in the agricultural sector. The shocks that have affected this include the surge in
food prices, the financial crisis of 2008, and the severe drought in 2010. This prompted
governmental assistance and the institution of specific federal programs.
The second element in Russian trade is energy. It is a well-known fact that Russia has
the world’s largest reserves of natural gas. This explains why oil and mining is such a significant
part of exports, as it has an implied comparative advantage in its production. Russia is also a
prominent energy producer because of improvements in its production of hydroelectricity. It
also was one of the world’s leading innovators in nuclear energy.
The third element of Russian trade is transport. Most cities in Russia have developed
railways, as the state-run “Russian Railways” is a monopoly. The most common types of
transportation are bus, trolley, and tram. As displayed in table 5, transportation service exports
account for 2.3% of total trade. The final category is science and technology. This accounts for
3% of its production and employment and key market indicators, as displayed by table 2,
include telephone subscriptions, internet subscriptions, and secure internet servers. It has seen
declining growth in energy conservation and consumer goods production, but a revamped
governmental effort and improving economy has led to more efficient energy use, innovative
13 | P a g e
IT, and an increase in research and development spending for nuclear energy and
pharmaceuticals.
As discussed later in this paper, there were only two different types of disputes that
other countries imposed on Russia. These included cost adjustment methodologies and certain
anti-dumping measures on the items countries imported from Russia. The second type of
dispute was certain measures related to the energy sector. This so called “Third Energy
Package” had directives, regulations, legislation, and decisions that were inconsistent with
certain obligations under the articles of the WTO agreement that the European Union signed.
Russia adopted the terms of entry and became a member of the World Trade
Organization (WTO) on December 16, 2011 after over eighteen years of negotiations. These
long and complex negotiations were as a result of trying to negotiate a term favorable for both
the Russian Federation and the World Trade Organization (WTO) since the Russian Federation
applied to the WTO in June 1993.
According to 2010 rankings by the World Trade Organization, the Russian Federation
ranks twelfth place in terms of merchandise exports and eighteenth place in terms of
merchandise imports. Regarding commercial services world ranking, the Russian Federation
ranks twenty-third and ranks sixteenth in commercial services imports. The Russian
Federation’s share in world total exports for merchandise is 2.63% while the share in world
total imports is 1.61%. In regards to commercial service trade, Russia’s share in world total
exports is 1.19% while the share in world total imports is 2%.
14 | P a g e
Merchandise exports are worth $400,132 (in millions) and imports are worth $248,738
(in millions). Russia’s main destinations of exports are European Union (52.2%), Ukraine (5.8%),
Turkey (5.1%), China (5.1%) and Belarus (4.5%). The main origins of imports are European Union
(38.3%), China (15.7%), Ukraine (5.6%), United States (4.5%) and Japan (4.1%). Principal
merchandise goods traded (exports and imports) include agriculture, fuels and mining products,
and manufactured products. Commercial services exports are worth $43,961 (in millions) and
imports are worth $70,223 (in millions). Principle services traded (exports and imports) are
transportation and travel.
Russia has been an official member of the WTO since August 2012. Its contribution to
the WTO budget is over 2 percent (WTO a). The average import duty on all goods is 7.7 percent.
However, non-ad valorem tariff rate is 9.1 percent (WTO a). Import duties constitute only 5.8
percent of tax revenues in Russia (WTO a). 14 percent of agricultural products and 33 percent
of non-agricultural imports enter the country duty-free (WTO a). Table 1 summarizes tariffs and
imports imposed by Russia. It can be seen that animal products, beverages and tobacco have
the highest tariffs while cotton and petroleum have the lowest tariffs. Table 2 summarizes the
duties faced from exporting to major trading partners. It can be seen that the European Union
is the largest trading partner for Russia, especially for non-agricultural products.
As characterized by the WTO website, a dispute arises when a member government
believes another member government is violating an agreement or commitment that has been
made in the WTO (WTO c). They are usually settled through the dispute settlement body, after
a request for a panel has been granted. The most common dispute Russia seems to have with
other members of the WTO are cost adjustment methodologies and certain anti-dumping
15 | P a g e
measures on items that other counties import form Russia. Although there are different sub-
categories in the anti-dumping cases, it is by far the most prevalent. Countries that have
reported these disputes with Russia include Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Indonesia,
Norway, Turkey, Ukraine, and the United States. These countries have voiced their disapproval
as complainants, third parties, or respondents.
Elements of the anti-dumping cases involve rejection of price and cost information of
producers and exporters in the country of origin, imposition, continuation, and collection of
anti-dumping duties and use of these duties as specific action against government subsidiaries.
The second most common dispute is measures related to the exportation of rare earths.
For Russia, this was mostly third party involvement on the restrictions certain countries put on
the export of rare earths. Countries involved in this dispute included China and Indonesia. All
other disputes varied.
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APPENDIX
Table 1: Descriptive Statistics (1992 – 2013)
Variable name Number of
observations
Mean Standard
deviation
Minimum Maximum
Inflation rate 21 8.22 196.24 5.07 874.62
Growth rate of real GDP 18 3.73 4.90 -7.82 10.05
Exports (X) 22 33.94 8.48 24.73 64.25
Imports (M) 22 24.45 6.16 20.14 49.75
International trade
(X+M)
22 58.39 14.13 47.26 114.00
Terms of trade 19 92.00 28.43 56.07 137.46
Current account 15 0.58 0.33 0.34 1.64
Change in wages 21 80.26 179.32 7.15 822.10
Change in manufacturing
employment
21 -2.94 5.10 -11.42 10.50
*Notes: Exports, imports, international trade, and current account are expressed in terms of
percent of nominal GDP.
Figure 1: Real GDP growth and inflation rate
*Data taken from IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the OECD
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
rgdpgr
inf
17 | P a g e
Figure 2: Share of international Trade in nominal GDP
*Data taken from IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the OECD
Figure 3: Terms of Trade (2005=100)
*Data taken from IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the OECD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
xgdp
mgdp
xmgdp
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
18 | P a g e
Figure 4: Share of current account in nominal GDP
*Data taken from IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the OECD
Figure 5: Percent change in wages and manufacturing employment
*Data taken from IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the OECD
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
mwagch
mempch
19 | P a g e
Table 2: Tariffs on imports imposed by Russia
Summary Total Ag Non-Ag
Simple average finalbound 7.7 11.1 7.2
Simple average MFN
applied 2013 9.7 12.2 9.3
Trade weightedaverage 2012 9.1 14.7 8.3
Imports(inbillions) $US 2012 314.8 38.5 276.3
Tariffs and imports by product groups
*Source: WTO (b)
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Table 3: Russia Exports to Major Trading Partners and Duties Faced (2012)
*Source: WTO (b)
Table 4: Russia’s Top Trade Export Partners
Country (Trade Partners) Percentage of Exports
European Union 52.20%
Ukraine 5.80%
Turkey 5.10%
China 5.10%
Belarus 4.50%
*Source: WTO (c)
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Table 5: Russia’s Top Trade Import Partners
Country (Trade Partners) Percentage of Imports
European Union 38.30%
China 15.70%
Ukraine 5.60%
United States 4.50%
Japan 4.10%
*Source: WTO (c)
Table 6: Merchandise Trade Summary for the Russian Federation
MERCHANDISE TRADE Value Annual percentage change
2013 2005-2013 2012 2013
Merchandise exports, f.o.b. (million US$) 294 10 1 -1
Merchandise imports, f.o.b. (million US$) 980 13 4 2
2013 2013
Share in world total exports 2.78 Share in world total
imports
1.82
Breakdown in economy's total exports Breakdown in economy's
total imports
By main commodity group (ITS) By main commodity
group (ITS)
Agricultural products 5.7 Agricultural
products
13.0
Fuels and mining products 71.4 Fuels and mining
products
3.0
Manufactures 19.3 Manufactures 75.3
By main destination By main origin
1. European Union (28) 45.8 1. European Union
(28)
42.6
2. China 6.8 2. China 16.9
3. Japan 3.7 3. United States 5.3
4. Kazakhstan 3.3 4. Ukraine 5.0
5. Belarus 3.2 5. Belarus 4.4
Unspecified destinations 12.8 Unspecified
origins
0.1
*Source: WTO (c)
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Table 7: Commercial Services Trade for the Russian Federation
COMMERCIAL SERVICES
TRADE
Value Annual percentage change
2013 2005-2013 2012 2013
Commercial services exports (million
US$)
64 769 13 7 11
Commercial services imports (million
US$)
123
008
16 19 18
2013 2013
Share in world total exports 1.39 Share in world total imports 2.81
Breakdown in economy's total exports Breakdown in economy's total
imports
By principal services item By principal services
item
Transportation 31.7 Transportation 14.2
Travel 18.5 Travel 43.5
Other commercial services 49.7 Other commercial services 42.3
*Source: WTO (c)
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Table 8: Summary of trade disputes involving Russia
Foreign Party As Complainant As Respondent As 3rd Party
European Union -Anti-Dumping (imports from
Russia)
-Energy Sector Measures
-Recycling Fee on motor vehicles
-Import of pigs,pork, and other
pig products
-Anti-Dumping (light commercial
motor vehicles from
Germany/Italy)
-Tariff Treatment (Agriculture)
-Exports (rare earths,
tungsten,molybdenum)
-Tax incentives for large
aircrafts
Japan recycling fee on motor vehicles -Anti-Dumping (stainless
steel seamless tubes)
Canada/Norway -Imports (Marketing/Seal
products)
United States -Anti-Dumping (steel)
China -Exports (rare earths,
tungsten,molybdenum)
Dominican Republic -Trademarks (Tobacco
Products)
India -Solar Cells/Modules
Cuba -Trademarks (Tobacco
Products)
Indonesia -Trademarks (Tobacco
Products)
Ukraine -Safeguard Measures on
passengercars
Denmark -Atlanto-Scandian Herring
Brazil -Taxation/Charges
Argentina -Anti-Dumping (biodiesel)
Korea -Anti-Dumping (Oil tubular
goods)
Total Number of
Cases
2 5 20
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When Russia became an open country, this caused positive and negative benefits. This
increased the flow of labor migration as well as the flow of capital and consumer goods which
gave the Russian consumers benefits relative to comparative advantages and absolute
advantages. Because of this globalization Russian has experienced more negatives due to the
Dutch disease. Since Russia is heavily dependent on its export of oil, this leaves Russia
vulnerable. Disputes between Russia and the US have caused problems in the United Nations.
Both countries interests are perceived as a threat by the other country. Also knowing that
Russia Is corrupt, this has caused many problems with international trade such as other
countries knowing how corrupt Russia is, that they do not want to trade with Russia. Another
issue that Russia is facing is sanctions. Mainly the US and EU have sanctioned Russia because of
Russia’s involvement with the Ukraine. Russia’s response to these sanctions was to implement
sanctions on the country’s that sanctioned Russia. In the end, this was a major hit to the
Russian economy.
The elements of Russian trade are agriculture, energy, transport, science and
technology. Even though Russia’s main export is oil, Agriculture still plays a significant role.
Russia had emerged as one of the world’s premier exporters on grain. As far as energy, Russia
has the world’s largest reserves of natural gas. The two different types of disputes that other
countries imposed on Russia were cost adjustment methodologies and anti- dumping
measures.
25 | P a g e
References
Adomanis, Mark. "Is Russia's Economy Rebalancing In The Face Of Western Sanctions? Not
Really." Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 11 Feb. 2015. Web. 23 Feb. 2015.
Forsberg, Tuomas, and Antti Seppo. "Power Without Influence? The EU And Trade Disputes
With Russia." Europe-Asia Studies 61.10 (2009): 1805-1823
Judge, W.Q., McNatt, D.B., Xu, W., 2011. The antecedents and effects of national corruption: a
meta-analysis. Journal of World Business, Volume 8. 93–103.
Learn More About Trade in Russia. (2015, February 1). Retrieved February 25, 2015, from
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/profile/country/rus/
Levin, M., Satarov, G., 2000. Corruption and institutions in Russia. European Journal of Political
Economy 16, 113-120.
Larson, D. Shevchenko, A. (2014). Russia says no: Power, status, and emotions in foreign
policy, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Volume 47, Issues 3–4, September–
December 2014, Pages 269-279,
OECD (2015), Terms of trade (indicator). Available at http://data.oecd.org/trade/terms-of-
trade.htm#indicator-chart doi: 10.1787/7722246c-en
Psaki, J. (2014). United States Expands Export Restrictions on Russia. Retrieved from US
Department of State website: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/225241.htm
26 | P a g e
Rapoza, K. "On Economy, Russia Shoots Self In Foot." Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 7 Dec. 2014.
Web. 23 Feb. 2015.
Smith, M.E. (2001) ‘The European Union’s Commercial Policy: Between Coherence and
Fragmentation’, Journal of European Public Policy, 5, pp. 787–802
Tikhomirov, V. (1997). Capital flight from post-Soviet Russia.Europe-Asia Studies, 591–615.
Transparency International, 2011. Corruption perceptions index 2014. Available at
http://www.transparency.org
Tuomas, F. 920140 Status conflicts between Russia and the West: Perceptions and emotional
biases, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Volume 47, Issues 3–4, Pages 323-331.
U.S. Commerce Department Expands Export Restrictions on Russia - 7/29/2014. (2014).
Retrieved from Office of Congressional and Public Affairs website:
http://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/107-about-
bis/newsroom/press-releases/press-release-2014/710-u-s-commerce-department-
expands-export-restrictions-on-russia
Vladimir S. Russia's openness to the world: The unpredicted consequences of the country's
liberalization, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Volume 45, Issues 3–4,
September–December 2012, Pages 355-361, ISSN 0967-067X,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2012.07.013.
.
27 | P a g e
Warner, D. (2014). Moving Borders: Russia’s Creative Entry into the World Trade Organization
(WTO). Alternatives: Global, Local, Researchgate, 39(2), 90-107.
doi:10.1177/0304375474566152
WTO (a). Trade profiles: Russian Federation Available at
http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/WSDBCountryPFView.aspx?Language=E&Country=RU
WTO (b). Tariff profiles: The U.S. Available at
http://stat.wto.org/TariffProfile/WSDBTariffPFView.aspx?Language=E&Country=RU
WTO (c). Member Information: Russian Federation and the WTO. Available at
http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/ru_e.htm
28 | P a g e

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461 - Final

  • 2. 1 | P a g e Russia is widely regarded as one of the most naturally endowed countries on the face of the earth. As a country, the Russian Federation is blessed with the world’s largest natural gas reserves, the second largest coal reserves, and the eighth largest coal reserves. As will be alluded to later in this paper, this creates an opportunity for the economic scope of the country to be “over-dependent” on the oil sector especially regarding exports. This, mixed with the complications of a perceived vastly corrupt government creates a negative horizon for this beautiful country. However, in the short-term horizon, oil will continue to be a significant part of the Russian economy. It was recently reported that China will ink a $25 billion deal to become the main importer of Russian oil via loans to oil companies. Interestingly enough, the corruption of the Russian economy has not gone unnoticed. Transparency International has a corruption perception index widely credited with putting the public sectors of certain countries in the public view. It reiterates the fact that to most people, the Russian government has significant improvements to make. The following information in this paper an in-depth understanding of the economic impact of specific elements in the Russian economy. Section 1 will give a macro-economic and trade-related view of different characteristics of Russia. These were scholarly articles compiled from journalistic databases such as Sciencedirect, ebescohost, and other sources. Section 2 gives an examination of trade restrictions and disputes filed by the WTO by and against Russia.
  • 3. 2 | P a g e Section 1: Russia at a glance: In this section we use the IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the data from OECD. Our observation period is 1992-2013. Some of the variables did not have data for the whole observation period. In those cases we used everything that was indeed available. In the empirical analysis we used the following variables: the growth rate of real GDP, inflation, shares of imports, exports, and international trade in nominal GDP, terms of trade, the current account, wage rates and manufacturing employment. Growth rate of real GDP is calculated as the percent change in real GDP. Inflation rate is the percent change in the Consumer Price Index (cpi). Exports are calculated as percent shares of nominal GDP, as are imports. International trade is the percent share of nominal GDP occupied by the sum of exports and imports. Terms of trade or the ratio of export prices to import prices was obtained from the OECB. The current account is roughly the sum of exported goods and services minus imports. It is expressed as a percent of nominal GDP. Data for manufacturing wages was not available, so the wage rate was used instead. The IFS data for the wage rate was expressed as a percent change over the previous period. Change in manufacturing employment was calculated as a percent change in the index. Descriptive statistics of the variables are summarized in Table 1. The average inflation rate for the Russian Federation, or Russia, was 82%, and a standard deviation of 196. Changes in wage rates show similar distribution patterns, with an average of 80% and standard deviation of 179. However, it is important to note that changes in inflation, wages, imports, and exports all exhibit similar patterns over the observation period. Their maximums occur in the early
  • 4. 3 | P a g e 1990s coinciding with the formation of the Russian Federation. Then they plummet drastically and from the late 1990s forward they exhibit considerably less volatility. Section 2: Literature Review In an article by Vladimir Shlapentokh (1997), he explains that after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia as a society opened up to the world in numerous ways. The transition since 1992 has been very unstable for the Russians and their economy as a whole. Openness to international trade is always viewed as beneficial to a society in comparison to a closed economy. Through trade with other countries, it is possible for Russia to improve their quality of goods and services, as well as experience profits from items that they have a comparative advantage in. As with any aspect of trade, there is the probability that every transaction doesn't end positively. In this case, openness in Russia has also lead to many consequences that threaten their economy in many different aspects relative to importing and exporting a variety of goods. With the shift in Russia’s openness to the world today as opposed to its former closed economy, there have been many positive and negative results from international trade. Before the dismantling of the Soviet Union majority of Russians could not leave the country. Mikhail Gorbachev started to relax these restrictions in the 1980’s, but it was Boris Yeltsin who provided a full-scale opening of society after the collapse of the Soviet Union (Shlapentokh, 2012). One of the biggest changes converting from a closed economy to an open economy was the ability to now travel abroad. Along with this of course came international trade relationships with other countries. Glasnost (Openness in Russia) was seen as a great opportunity, beneficial to Russia as well as other trade partners. This new open economy
  • 5. 4 | P a g e promoted a substantial amount of economic growth stemming from increased production and gains from trade. As the new open economy began to emerge in Russia there have been some important developments that can account for the positive and negative effects relative to international trade. Globalization of the international economy is a real revolution in Russian life (Inostrannye iazyki I poezdki za granitsu, 2011). Globalization has increased the flow of labor migration as well as the flow of capital and consumer goods. Economic privatization has also developed as a result of openness in Russia. This has increased corruption and uncertainty within the country. Also a result of glasnost is the disappearance of a cohesive public ideology that persuades people to be concerned about the interests of the country and society as a whole (Green, 2011). This has both a positive and negative effects on Russia. Consumers have been given the opportunity to buy diverse goods and services. Even Russian consumers with a smaller amount of income will see the benefits relative to international trade because of low prices as a result of comparative and absolute advantages. As a result of globalization the negative consequences outweigh the benefits brought to the Russian economy. The increased concentration on exporting oil and natural gas has opened Russia to the “Dutch disease” of relying on fuel production to earn most of their revenue (Kuvshinova, 2010). These are the main goods that the economy exports seeking gains from trade. There is a huge uncertainty factor that comes along with these goods. The price and production can easily be changed from a variety reasons for example a discovery of these goods in another country or a substitute good. Russia relies heavily on the exports of oil and natural
  • 6. 5 | P a g e gases, but if the relative price of these good decreases the Russian economy will suffer its consequences. In 1992 when the Soviet Union dissembled, Russians had many predictions for the future of their economy. The openness has brought many new developments to the country. They are an illustration of how Russians have adapted to the new economy. As a result of openness there have been many benefits, for example Russian consumers have a higher utility as well as higher nominal income in comparison to the previously closed economy. On the other hand, it has introduced a plethora of negative consequences such as “Dutch disease”. Although lucrative gains from trade have been seen from gas and oil, the negative impact of openness wouldn’t affect Russia as much if the price of these goods were lower. As a result of the openness in Russia’s economy compared to the closeness of its past during the Soviet system, both a negative and positive impact on the country has been established. Russia is heavily dependent on its export of oil and oil-related resources. Such dependence in this sector has left Russia vulnerable to the trade implications that come along with having your economy heavily dependent on a specific resource. Specifically, more recent news has been uncovered with Russia and its vulnerability with self-imposed trade restrictions. Russia is a powerhouse of natural resources, holding the world’s largest natural gas reserves, second largest coal reserves, and eighth largest oil reserves. As reported by the Observatory of economic complexity, their top five exports are composed of crude petroleum, petroleum gas, coal briquettes, and semi-finished iron. Others include wheat, gold, diamonds, and iron. Russia’s top five imports include cars, packaged medicaments, vehicle parts, computers, and
  • 7. 6 | P a g e delivery trucks. Others include telephones, tractors, airplanes, helicopters and broadcasting accessories. Before entering the World Trade Organization, Russia was not able to capitalize on the multilateral trading system provided by the WTO. This prevented Russia from taking advantage of this unique opportunity. In an article by David Warner (2014), he explains that in with the help of the government of Switzerland, Russia was able to become a member of the WTO in August of 2012. In an article by Deb Larson (2014), she expands on the notion that Russian behavior has become hostile in the west, often rejecting help from diplomats representing US interests. She also goes on to explain that there have been considerable “perceived slights.” This implies that the Russian Federation has had the notion of being slighted by the U.S for a number of years. Usually in cases of diplomacy, certain sacrifices have to be made by both parties in order for a common ground to be reached. More on this subject, this may explain the idea that Russia has been opposed the U.S. position of power in the United Nations, specifically its, “coalition- building and diplomatic bargaining within international institutions to constrain the dominant power (The U.S.).” In a sense, the US is expanding on the already extensive list of sanctions on US exports to Russia. This includes all items regulated on the US munitions list, high technology defense articles, and many other articles that contribute to Russia’s military capabilities. To expand on this subject, the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry Security (BIS) is further restricting Russia’s imports of American technology. The BIS controls exports and re-exports of
  • 8. 7 | P a g e commodities, technology, and software to support national security and foreign policy , including nuclear , chemical and biological weapons, and missile non-proliferation, human rights, regional stability, and curbing terrorism. The BIS reports that the export sanctions, while not interfering with the energy supply from Russia, does make it difficult for Russia to establish stability with future long term projects. Other restrictions include vegetables, meat, fish, and dairy products from twenty-eight countries in the European Union, Canada, Norway, and Australia. International trade in Russia has a number of disadvantages and also a number of advantages. Depending on the angle one chooses to look at this topic from, either the benefits outweigh the cost or vice versa. However, it will be useful to note that equal attention will be given to the benefits as well as the costs of international trade in a country such as Russia. The first cost or disadvantage of international trade in Russia will have to be the association of corruption with Russian trade. It has been suggested that corruption in Russia has been a persistent issue that has immensely affected the trade relations between Russia and other trade partners (Judge et al., 2011; Levin and Satarov, 2000). Furthermore, as suggested by Transparency International’s rankings in terms of Corruption Perceptions Index which ranks countries based on how corrupt trade, public sector and economic practices are perceived to be, Russia’s Corruption Perceptions Index was 136 out of 175 (Transparency International, 2014). It is also suggested that corruption in Russia is ubiquitous and indiscriminate, especially among governmental parastatals in both local and international trade (Transparency International, 2014).
  • 9. 8 | P a g e Another cost to Russia during international trade is associated with the problems that arise due to capital flights. This can be as a result of corruption in the economic system, economic and political unpredictability, or prominent international trade with countries that have a higher currency value. It has been suggested that the Russian government has struggled to regulate capital flight by using two strategies: first by trying to change Russia’s financial system and currency procedures; and second by coming up with more efficient state controls over international trade. However, these actions have not been effective due to the absence of legal structures and institutional capabilities that can monitor and in time regulate these developments (Tikhomirov, 1997). Capital flights (especially when linked with international trade) can be tied back to the problem of extreme corruption in the Russian economy. Tikhomirov (1997) goes on further to suggest that arrangements for exporting capital under the disguise of foreign trade, which solely banks on the mispricing of goods, was first known to have originated in Russia during the 1991–1993 period. Exported goods from Russia were intentionally priced lower, while the imported goods were purposely priced higher with the exporter typically getting an additional fee as bribe. As a result of corruption in international trade in Russia, capital flight is aggravated and this in turn will diminish Russia’s tax base, increase Russia’s public deficit, decrease domestic investment and will ultimately destabilize Russia’s financial markets. Benefits associated with international trade in Russia include lower-priced imports and new inward investment. Foreign trade between Russia and other countries will stimulate economic growth by creating jobs in industries that are export-oriented. Foreign trade in Russia also creates economic, political and financial alliances between Russia and its trade partners.
  • 10. 9 | P a g e The European Union (EU) has been having trade misunderstandings with Russia over the past years. The European Union (EU) is a global force to be reckoned with however, the EU has been finding it quite problematic to influence Russia even though the EU is by far superior in global power and influence than Russia in conventional terms (Leonard & Popescu 2007). Leonard & Popescu (2007) go on to suggest that there are several factors responsible for this dispute between the two entities. Some of them, as suggested are lack of unity, a poor strategy management, and a misguided view of the significance of the power resources in a particular circumstance. It has often been suggested that a critical weakness in the EU’s ability to use power is its lack of unity. Even though the EU should act as a single entity in trade concerns, it is still not a territorial state and its internal cohesion is fallible. Diverse member states can have incompatible ideas about the preferred objectives, which impedes any coordinated action and indicates a poor resolution in international disputes (Smith, 2001). In an article by Forsberg Tuomas (2014), he expands on his belief that Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine has put a strain on its relationship with The United States of America and the European Union, which caused the US to put up sanctions on Russian Imports. Russia’s response to these sanctions was to sanction its own imports from the countries that sanctioned Russia. This all caused the Russian ruble to decline and Russia’s economy to fall. The reason why the US, EU, and other countries sanctioned Russia was to diminish Russia’s economy enough for Russia to leave Ukraine. In Mark Adomanis's article (2015), he explains that this did in fact hurt Russia’s economy. The ones affected by these sanctions were Russia’s Businesses. Large investors and energy companies could not do anything with Russia. Those
  • 11. 10 | P a g e businesses started to lose money. Since these major businesses played a major role in the Russian economy, the economy started to fall. With Russia being a top oil and natural gas producer, over the past year, oil prices have fallen. Russia is receiving less money that what is has been used to in the past years. This also hurt the Russian economy. With all this in effect, the Russian ruble has also declined. In accordance with this information, the nations that are directly involved in trade with Russia are experiencing economic problems. The diplomatic strain the government has caused has directly affected the lifestyle of the people that live there. The people living in Russia are experiencing inflation. Money is not flowing around the Russian economy for people to buy more things. More companies are backing out of Russia because Russia’s economy is collapsing; even larger companies. They see that there is no benefit to stay in Russia based on the actions of the Russian Government. Russia’s response to the sanctions were to sanction its own imports from the countries that sanctioned Russia. This is Russia thinking that they are a great power still while they are still trying to get back to that position. A reason for Russia to react in this way could be because of confusion of the actions from the west. The Russian government feels it deserves more respect while simultaneously trying to rebuild as a country, but because of disagreements in western governments, diplomatic warfare has ensued. Russia’s actions with this sanction have demonstrated their belief that they can prosper without the help of certain countries. With this, of course, Russia is forced to become a self-dependent state.
  • 12. 11 | P a g e Russia’s hopes were that as a country they can be independent, however their actions have resulted in the economic retraction they are experiencing. The worst part is that this may not be the floor. In order for Russia to prosper, there has to be an infusion of capital, better trade conditions for Russia and her partners, along with much needed entrepreneurial activity and government assistance. The problem is with the current stance of the Russian government, this is highly unlikely. Entrepreneurial activity needs time to have an effect on the economy. As Yury Federov (2014) states in her article, it is the belief of Russian entrepreneurs that they must first leave the country to improve their income, because Russia has a huge limit on its interactions with other countries. Section 3: Trade Characteristics and Disputes Russia’s trade characteristics can be broken down into five essential main parts. These include agriculture, energy, transport, science, and technology. Since its inception into the WTO, population growth, higher domestic consumption, and a better functioning political system has paved the way for Russia to improve as a country. 80% of its exports are oil, natural gas, and metals. Although global oil prices have been declining, it still remains a significant part of the Russian Gross Domestic Product. As a natural resource imbued country, the percentage of exports dedicated to oil and mining may be reduced in the future, but more than likely it will never be completely eliminated. In fact, in May of 2014, Russia and China inked a $400 billion gas deal in which Russia will be China’s main supplier of oil for a very long time. Accession into the WTO allows Russia to diversify the number of countries it can export to, while allowing for the opportunity for economic growth.
  • 13. 12 | P a g e The first element in Russian trade is agriculture. Although its importance in the export aspect of Russian trade may be undervalued when compared to oil, the agricultural sector provides many jobs to its citizens. Main components include wheat, barley, oats, potatoes, and rye. As of 2000, Russia has emerged as one of the world’s premier exporters on grain with a 14% market share. The main focus of the government has been to improve domestic production in the agricultural sector. The shocks that have affected this include the surge in food prices, the financial crisis of 2008, and the severe drought in 2010. This prompted governmental assistance and the institution of specific federal programs. The second element in Russian trade is energy. It is a well-known fact that Russia has the world’s largest reserves of natural gas. This explains why oil and mining is such a significant part of exports, as it has an implied comparative advantage in its production. Russia is also a prominent energy producer because of improvements in its production of hydroelectricity. It also was one of the world’s leading innovators in nuclear energy. The third element of Russian trade is transport. Most cities in Russia have developed railways, as the state-run “Russian Railways” is a monopoly. The most common types of transportation are bus, trolley, and tram. As displayed in table 5, transportation service exports account for 2.3% of total trade. The final category is science and technology. This accounts for 3% of its production and employment and key market indicators, as displayed by table 2, include telephone subscriptions, internet subscriptions, and secure internet servers. It has seen declining growth in energy conservation and consumer goods production, but a revamped governmental effort and improving economy has led to more efficient energy use, innovative
  • 14. 13 | P a g e IT, and an increase in research and development spending for nuclear energy and pharmaceuticals. As discussed later in this paper, there were only two different types of disputes that other countries imposed on Russia. These included cost adjustment methodologies and certain anti-dumping measures on the items countries imported from Russia. The second type of dispute was certain measures related to the energy sector. This so called “Third Energy Package” had directives, regulations, legislation, and decisions that were inconsistent with certain obligations under the articles of the WTO agreement that the European Union signed. Russia adopted the terms of entry and became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on December 16, 2011 after over eighteen years of negotiations. These long and complex negotiations were as a result of trying to negotiate a term favorable for both the Russian Federation and the World Trade Organization (WTO) since the Russian Federation applied to the WTO in June 1993. According to 2010 rankings by the World Trade Organization, the Russian Federation ranks twelfth place in terms of merchandise exports and eighteenth place in terms of merchandise imports. Regarding commercial services world ranking, the Russian Federation ranks twenty-third and ranks sixteenth in commercial services imports. The Russian Federation’s share in world total exports for merchandise is 2.63% while the share in world total imports is 1.61%. In regards to commercial service trade, Russia’s share in world total exports is 1.19% while the share in world total imports is 2%.
  • 15. 14 | P a g e Merchandise exports are worth $400,132 (in millions) and imports are worth $248,738 (in millions). Russia’s main destinations of exports are European Union (52.2%), Ukraine (5.8%), Turkey (5.1%), China (5.1%) and Belarus (4.5%). The main origins of imports are European Union (38.3%), China (15.7%), Ukraine (5.6%), United States (4.5%) and Japan (4.1%). Principal merchandise goods traded (exports and imports) include agriculture, fuels and mining products, and manufactured products. Commercial services exports are worth $43,961 (in millions) and imports are worth $70,223 (in millions). Principle services traded (exports and imports) are transportation and travel. Russia has been an official member of the WTO since August 2012. Its contribution to the WTO budget is over 2 percent (WTO a). The average import duty on all goods is 7.7 percent. However, non-ad valorem tariff rate is 9.1 percent (WTO a). Import duties constitute only 5.8 percent of tax revenues in Russia (WTO a). 14 percent of agricultural products and 33 percent of non-agricultural imports enter the country duty-free (WTO a). Table 1 summarizes tariffs and imports imposed by Russia. It can be seen that animal products, beverages and tobacco have the highest tariffs while cotton and petroleum have the lowest tariffs. Table 2 summarizes the duties faced from exporting to major trading partners. It can be seen that the European Union is the largest trading partner for Russia, especially for non-agricultural products. As characterized by the WTO website, a dispute arises when a member government believes another member government is violating an agreement or commitment that has been made in the WTO (WTO c). They are usually settled through the dispute settlement body, after a request for a panel has been granted. The most common dispute Russia seems to have with other members of the WTO are cost adjustment methodologies and certain anti-dumping
  • 16. 15 | P a g e measures on items that other counties import form Russia. Although there are different sub- categories in the anti-dumping cases, it is by far the most prevalent. Countries that have reported these disputes with Russia include Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey, Ukraine, and the United States. These countries have voiced their disapproval as complainants, third parties, or respondents. Elements of the anti-dumping cases involve rejection of price and cost information of producers and exporters in the country of origin, imposition, continuation, and collection of anti-dumping duties and use of these duties as specific action against government subsidiaries. The second most common dispute is measures related to the exportation of rare earths. For Russia, this was mostly third party involvement on the restrictions certain countries put on the export of rare earths. Countries involved in this dispute included China and Indonesia. All other disputes varied.
  • 17. 16 | P a g e APPENDIX Table 1: Descriptive Statistics (1992 – 2013) Variable name Number of observations Mean Standard deviation Minimum Maximum Inflation rate 21 8.22 196.24 5.07 874.62 Growth rate of real GDP 18 3.73 4.90 -7.82 10.05 Exports (X) 22 33.94 8.48 24.73 64.25 Imports (M) 22 24.45 6.16 20.14 49.75 International trade (X+M) 22 58.39 14.13 47.26 114.00 Terms of trade 19 92.00 28.43 56.07 137.46 Current account 15 0.58 0.33 0.34 1.64 Change in wages 21 80.26 179.32 7.15 822.10 Change in manufacturing employment 21 -2.94 5.10 -11.42 10.50 *Notes: Exports, imports, international trade, and current account are expressed in terms of percent of nominal GDP. Figure 1: Real GDP growth and inflation rate *Data taken from IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the OECD -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 rgdpgr inf
  • 18. 17 | P a g e Figure 2: Share of international Trade in nominal GDP *Data taken from IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the OECD Figure 3: Terms of Trade (2005=100) *Data taken from IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the OECD 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 xgdp mgdp xmgdp 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  • 19. 18 | P a g e Figure 4: Share of current account in nominal GDP *Data taken from IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the OECD Figure 5: Percent change in wages and manufacturing employment *Data taken from IMF’s International Financial statistics (IFS) and the OECD 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 mwagch mempch
  • 20. 19 | P a g e Table 2: Tariffs on imports imposed by Russia Summary Total Ag Non-Ag Simple average finalbound 7.7 11.1 7.2 Simple average MFN applied 2013 9.7 12.2 9.3 Trade weightedaverage 2012 9.1 14.7 8.3 Imports(inbillions) $US 2012 314.8 38.5 276.3 Tariffs and imports by product groups *Source: WTO (b)
  • 21. 20 | P a g e Table 3: Russia Exports to Major Trading Partners and Duties Faced (2012) *Source: WTO (b) Table 4: Russia’s Top Trade Export Partners Country (Trade Partners) Percentage of Exports European Union 52.20% Ukraine 5.80% Turkey 5.10% China 5.10% Belarus 4.50% *Source: WTO (c)
  • 22. 21 | P a g e Table 5: Russia’s Top Trade Import Partners Country (Trade Partners) Percentage of Imports European Union 38.30% China 15.70% Ukraine 5.60% United States 4.50% Japan 4.10% *Source: WTO (c) Table 6: Merchandise Trade Summary for the Russian Federation MERCHANDISE TRADE Value Annual percentage change 2013 2005-2013 2012 2013 Merchandise exports, f.o.b. (million US$) 294 10 1 -1 Merchandise imports, f.o.b. (million US$) 980 13 4 2 2013 2013 Share in world total exports 2.78 Share in world total imports 1.82 Breakdown in economy's total exports Breakdown in economy's total imports By main commodity group (ITS) By main commodity group (ITS) Agricultural products 5.7 Agricultural products 13.0 Fuels and mining products 71.4 Fuels and mining products 3.0 Manufactures 19.3 Manufactures 75.3 By main destination By main origin 1. European Union (28) 45.8 1. European Union (28) 42.6 2. China 6.8 2. China 16.9 3. Japan 3.7 3. United States 5.3 4. Kazakhstan 3.3 4. Ukraine 5.0 5. Belarus 3.2 5. Belarus 4.4 Unspecified destinations 12.8 Unspecified origins 0.1 *Source: WTO (c)
  • 23. 22 | P a g e Table 7: Commercial Services Trade for the Russian Federation COMMERCIAL SERVICES TRADE Value Annual percentage change 2013 2005-2013 2012 2013 Commercial services exports (million US$) 64 769 13 7 11 Commercial services imports (million US$) 123 008 16 19 18 2013 2013 Share in world total exports 1.39 Share in world total imports 2.81 Breakdown in economy's total exports Breakdown in economy's total imports By principal services item By principal services item Transportation 31.7 Transportation 14.2 Travel 18.5 Travel 43.5 Other commercial services 49.7 Other commercial services 42.3 *Source: WTO (c)
  • 24. 23 | P a g e Table 8: Summary of trade disputes involving Russia Foreign Party As Complainant As Respondent As 3rd Party European Union -Anti-Dumping (imports from Russia) -Energy Sector Measures -Recycling Fee on motor vehicles -Import of pigs,pork, and other pig products -Anti-Dumping (light commercial motor vehicles from Germany/Italy) -Tariff Treatment (Agriculture) -Exports (rare earths, tungsten,molybdenum) -Tax incentives for large aircrafts Japan recycling fee on motor vehicles -Anti-Dumping (stainless steel seamless tubes) Canada/Norway -Imports (Marketing/Seal products) United States -Anti-Dumping (steel) China -Exports (rare earths, tungsten,molybdenum) Dominican Republic -Trademarks (Tobacco Products) India -Solar Cells/Modules Cuba -Trademarks (Tobacco Products) Indonesia -Trademarks (Tobacco Products) Ukraine -Safeguard Measures on passengercars Denmark -Atlanto-Scandian Herring Brazil -Taxation/Charges Argentina -Anti-Dumping (biodiesel) Korea -Anti-Dumping (Oil tubular goods) Total Number of Cases 2 5 20
  • 25. 24 | P a g e When Russia became an open country, this caused positive and negative benefits. This increased the flow of labor migration as well as the flow of capital and consumer goods which gave the Russian consumers benefits relative to comparative advantages and absolute advantages. Because of this globalization Russian has experienced more negatives due to the Dutch disease. Since Russia is heavily dependent on its export of oil, this leaves Russia vulnerable. Disputes between Russia and the US have caused problems in the United Nations. Both countries interests are perceived as a threat by the other country. Also knowing that Russia Is corrupt, this has caused many problems with international trade such as other countries knowing how corrupt Russia is, that they do not want to trade with Russia. Another issue that Russia is facing is sanctions. Mainly the US and EU have sanctioned Russia because of Russia’s involvement with the Ukraine. Russia’s response to these sanctions was to implement sanctions on the country’s that sanctioned Russia. In the end, this was a major hit to the Russian economy. The elements of Russian trade are agriculture, energy, transport, science and technology. Even though Russia’s main export is oil, Agriculture still plays a significant role. Russia had emerged as one of the world’s premier exporters on grain. As far as energy, Russia has the world’s largest reserves of natural gas. The two different types of disputes that other countries imposed on Russia were cost adjustment methodologies and anti- dumping measures.
  • 26. 25 | P a g e References Adomanis, Mark. "Is Russia's Economy Rebalancing In The Face Of Western Sanctions? Not Really." Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 11 Feb. 2015. Web. 23 Feb. 2015. Forsberg, Tuomas, and Antti Seppo. "Power Without Influence? The EU And Trade Disputes With Russia." Europe-Asia Studies 61.10 (2009): 1805-1823 Judge, W.Q., McNatt, D.B., Xu, W., 2011. The antecedents and effects of national corruption: a meta-analysis. Journal of World Business, Volume 8. 93–103. Learn More About Trade in Russia. (2015, February 1). Retrieved February 25, 2015, from http://atlas.media.mit.edu/profile/country/rus/ Levin, M., Satarov, G., 2000. Corruption and institutions in Russia. European Journal of Political Economy 16, 113-120. Larson, D. Shevchenko, A. (2014). Russia says no: Power, status, and emotions in foreign policy, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Volume 47, Issues 3–4, September– December 2014, Pages 269-279, OECD (2015), Terms of trade (indicator). Available at http://data.oecd.org/trade/terms-of- trade.htm#indicator-chart doi: 10.1787/7722246c-en Psaki, J. (2014). United States Expands Export Restrictions on Russia. Retrieved from US Department of State website: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/225241.htm
  • 27. 26 | P a g e Rapoza, K. "On Economy, Russia Shoots Self In Foot." Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 7 Dec. 2014. Web. 23 Feb. 2015. Smith, M.E. (2001) ‘The European Union’s Commercial Policy: Between Coherence and Fragmentation’, Journal of European Public Policy, 5, pp. 787–802 Tikhomirov, V. (1997). Capital flight from post-Soviet Russia.Europe-Asia Studies, 591–615. Transparency International, 2011. Corruption perceptions index 2014. Available at http://www.transparency.org Tuomas, F. 920140 Status conflicts between Russia and the West: Perceptions and emotional biases, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Volume 47, Issues 3–4, Pages 323-331. U.S. Commerce Department Expands Export Restrictions on Russia - 7/29/2014. (2014). Retrieved from Office of Congressional and Public Affairs website: http://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/107-about- bis/newsroom/press-releases/press-release-2014/710-u-s-commerce-department- expands-export-restrictions-on-russia Vladimir S. Russia's openness to the world: The unpredicted consequences of the country's liberalization, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Volume 45, Issues 3–4, September–December 2012, Pages 355-361, ISSN 0967-067X, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2012.07.013. .
  • 28. 27 | P a g e Warner, D. (2014). Moving Borders: Russia’s Creative Entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). Alternatives: Global, Local, Researchgate, 39(2), 90-107. doi:10.1177/0304375474566152 WTO (a). Trade profiles: Russian Federation Available at http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/WSDBCountryPFView.aspx?Language=E&Country=RU WTO (b). Tariff profiles: The U.S. Available at http://stat.wto.org/TariffProfile/WSDBTariffPFView.aspx?Language=E&Country=RU WTO (c). Member Information: Russian Federation and the WTO. Available at http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/ru_e.htm
  • 29. 28 | P a g e