The United Kingdom’s post-Brexit future is uncertain. But one thing is clear: boosting economic growth will depend heavily on addressing long-standing productivity challenges.
FICCI Survey brings to the fore the concerns of India Inc. over the possible near term impact of ‘Brexit’ on Indian business and the economy. Yet, it remains sanguine that the UK will make renewed efforts to strengthen ties with countries of the Commonwealth group and India stands to gain given its own growth performance and a much better regulatory and business environment. The respondents were hopeful that this can be an opportunity for India and UK to make renewed efforts to strengthen ties.
Brexit impact in global financial marketsAndi Belegu
The UK vote a month ago to leave the European Union will have across the board results for budgetary markets, making both open doors and issues. Brexit may increment worldwide money related soundness since heterogeneous monetary markets and financial frameworks increment budgetary dependability, gave the British administrative framework winds up being adequately not the same as the European framework.
The United Kingdom’s post-Brexit future is uncertain. But one thing is clear: boosting economic growth will depend heavily on addressing long-standing productivity challenges.
FICCI Survey brings to the fore the concerns of India Inc. over the possible near term impact of ‘Brexit’ on Indian business and the economy. Yet, it remains sanguine that the UK will make renewed efforts to strengthen ties with countries of the Commonwealth group and India stands to gain given its own growth performance and a much better regulatory and business environment. The respondents were hopeful that this can be an opportunity for India and UK to make renewed efforts to strengthen ties.
Brexit impact in global financial marketsAndi Belegu
The UK vote a month ago to leave the European Union will have across the board results for budgetary markets, making both open doors and issues. Brexit may increment worldwide money related soundness since heterogeneous monetary markets and financial frameworks increment budgetary dependability, gave the British administrative framework winds up being adequately not the same as the European framework.
Brexit news. Relocating to Europe decisions made.Pete S
The effects of Brexit have started to show. Companies and organisations are publishing details of their post Brexit plans.
These actions represent a major decision by various types of businesses, often at considerable cost. The lost to the UK will be long lasting and substantial.
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union.
Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote
A few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister.
The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU remain uncertain.
Hard Brexit
Means that the United Kingdom leaves the EU Single Market and trades under World Trade Organization rules
Under WTO rules, each member must grant the same market access—including charging the same tariffs—to all other members as the most favoured nation
Soft Brexit
Involves the option of staying in the Single Market (like Norway)
As a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), Norway has a free trade agreement with the European Union, which means that there are no tariffs on trade between the two
Working with Toby, Harry and Robbie we created a Brexit presentation for our economic exam talking about different macro economic factors and political parties.
80% Pass
Brexit is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a referendum held on 23 June 2016 in which 51.9 percent of those voting supported leaving the EU, the Government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, starting a two-year process which was due to conclude with the UK's exit on 29 March 2019. That deadline has since been extended to 31 October 2019.
BREXIT (Britain Exit) The Reasons & ImpactsSlide Gen
BREXIT_The Reasons & Impacts
Brexit is an abbreviation of "British exit". In 23 June 2016 Britain came out from European Union (EU) by the Vote of Britain’s people.
After Having 43 years of membership this great country makes this big decision. In 1973 United Kingdom got the membership in EU to expand the business among 28 members and share a common economical system.
New perspectives on Brexit for Financial Services, with relocation, the harde...Emilie Pons
In the wake of Brexit, several banks have announced a relocation to EU 27. Whether, they already have a subsidiary or need to open one, banks should not perceive Brexit as an easy task but have to plan now, in order to gain a competitive advantage. In this short presentation, Chappuis Halder & Co. offers 4 perspectives for Investment banks on the areas where it can help, such as Modelling /Clearing houses/EU Intermediate Holding Company/ Back & Middle Office optimisation
The Saturday Economist Brexit Briefing, all the information needed to make an...John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist on Brexit. All the information you need to make and informed decision. We analyse the arguments in to the business, economic, political and social. The political arguments relate to who governs Britain. The social argument largely dealing with immigration and implications for education, health care and welfare.
The economics case argues against Brexit, largely because of the uncertainty relating to the alternative options. Brexit will damage investment prospects in the short term (uncertainty) and in the long term (strategic). We consider that motor, aerospace and financial services industries are particularly at risk.
As for business ... there is no business case to support the "Brexit" argument. The level of uncertainty is too severe JKA
With the recent Brexit developments, there is a sense of uncertainty amongst the investment management industry. This webinar will take a deep dive into the implications of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union while also highlighting the changes and opportunities that will play out in the industry over the coming months. Gain a better understanding of how Brexit will impact you personally and what you need to do to prepare for the future.
Brexit news. Relocating to Europe decisions made.Pete S
The effects of Brexit have started to show. Companies and organisations are publishing details of their post Brexit plans.
These actions represent a major decision by various types of businesses, often at considerable cost. The lost to the UK will be long lasting and substantial.
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union.
Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote
A few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister.
The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU remain uncertain.
Hard Brexit
Means that the United Kingdom leaves the EU Single Market and trades under World Trade Organization rules
Under WTO rules, each member must grant the same market access—including charging the same tariffs—to all other members as the most favoured nation
Soft Brexit
Involves the option of staying in the Single Market (like Norway)
As a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), Norway has a free trade agreement with the European Union, which means that there are no tariffs on trade between the two
Working with Toby, Harry and Robbie we created a Brexit presentation for our economic exam talking about different macro economic factors and political parties.
80% Pass
Brexit is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a referendum held on 23 June 2016 in which 51.9 percent of those voting supported leaving the EU, the Government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, starting a two-year process which was due to conclude with the UK's exit on 29 March 2019. That deadline has since been extended to 31 October 2019.
BREXIT (Britain Exit) The Reasons & ImpactsSlide Gen
BREXIT_The Reasons & Impacts
Brexit is an abbreviation of "British exit". In 23 June 2016 Britain came out from European Union (EU) by the Vote of Britain’s people.
After Having 43 years of membership this great country makes this big decision. In 1973 United Kingdom got the membership in EU to expand the business among 28 members and share a common economical system.
New perspectives on Brexit for Financial Services, with relocation, the harde...Emilie Pons
In the wake of Brexit, several banks have announced a relocation to EU 27. Whether, they already have a subsidiary or need to open one, banks should not perceive Brexit as an easy task but have to plan now, in order to gain a competitive advantage. In this short presentation, Chappuis Halder & Co. offers 4 perspectives for Investment banks on the areas where it can help, such as Modelling /Clearing houses/EU Intermediate Holding Company/ Back & Middle Office optimisation
The Saturday Economist Brexit Briefing, all the information needed to make an...John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist on Brexit. All the information you need to make and informed decision. We analyse the arguments in to the business, economic, political and social. The political arguments relate to who governs Britain. The social argument largely dealing with immigration and implications for education, health care and welfare.
The economics case argues against Brexit, largely because of the uncertainty relating to the alternative options. Brexit will damage investment prospects in the short term (uncertainty) and in the long term (strategic). We consider that motor, aerospace and financial services industries are particularly at risk.
As for business ... there is no business case to support the "Brexit" argument. The level of uncertainty is too severe JKA
With the recent Brexit developments, there is a sense of uncertainty amongst the investment management industry. This webinar will take a deep dive into the implications of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union while also highlighting the changes and opportunities that will play out in the industry over the coming months. Gain a better understanding of how Brexit will impact you personally and what you need to do to prepare for the future.
In this special edition of Valuation Insights, we discuss some of the key valuation and compliance impacts that will likely result from Brexit. Specifically, we review the short-term and long-term economic implications, as well as compliance and regulatory considerations. We also highlight valuation issues, including how companies and investors determine cost of capital and measure risk in the current environment, and discuss implications for transfer pricing with respect to EU Directives. While all industries will be impacted by Brexit, in this issue we focus on the banking and financial services sectors, which stand to be the most heavily affected.
Coface French economists view on Brexit, taking a view on the short term uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. Growth forecasts revised for 2016 and 2017. Elections across Europe bringing uncertainty. A potential Scottish referendum looming and challenges Northern Ireland face.
Three issues dominated much of the Brexit referendum debate: trade, investment and migration; and they will continue to dominate during the exit negotiations. Uncertainty is the key word when analysing the outlook for the UK, with much depending on the UK government’s ability to negotiate trade agreements in a timely manner. Here we investigate the post-referendum economic landscape and explore the potential impact on the UK of a disorderly exit, as well as the impact on key economic indicators should the UK have a change of heart and remain in the EU.
S&P Study: Capital investment paralysis is the main BREXIT risk for European ...Sébastien Marchipont
economical impacts of Brexit assessed by S&P:
- Short-term financial risks that would immediately follow a U.K. decision to leave the EU include currency devaluation, a higher cost of debt capital, and reduced access of U.K. companies to international capital markets.
- Long term, our key concern is the possibility of a curtailment in corporate investment. But U.K. corporates and EU-based companies operating in the U.K. would also face risks in adapting to new trade agreements and tariff regimes, navigating changing immigration rules to maintain adequate supply and flexibility in the labor force, and complying with regulatory regime changes--including the environment for mergers and acquisitions.
Economic Update October 2017 - If you look at the larger commonwealth countries put together – including India, Pakistan, Australia and Canada – the top 10 make up simply 8% of our exports compared with 44% for the European Union. And if you take all 52 or 54 commonwealth countries, they make up just 9% of all our exports.
Le Royaume-Uni lui-même serait le plus affecté, avec, à l'horizon 2030, un différentiel de Produit intérieur brut (PIB) par habitant pouvant aller, dans le pire des scénarios, jusqu'à 14% par rapport à ce qu'il serait en restant dans l'UE. Les économies que pourrait réaliser Londres en ne contribuant plus au budget européen ne compenseraient en aucun cas le manque à gagner, préviennent les auteurs de l'étude.
The United Kingdom (UK) intends to withdraw from the European Union (EU), a process commonly known as BREXIT, as a result of June 2016 referendum in which 52% voted to leave EU. The term “BREXIT” is the short form of the words “BRITISH” and “EXIT”.
Ya hay 265 empresas FinTech en España. En esta actualización se incorpora Insight View (herramienta que nos da información sobre la solvencia y los niveles de riesgo de nuestros clientes) en la vertical de crédito
Economic outlook de Credito y Caucion - Mayo 2017Ignacio Jimenez
Repunte cíclico del comercio global pese a la incertidumbre y la debilidad estructural
El último Economic Outlook difundido por Crédito y Caución muestra una mejora de sus perspectivas económicas mundiales, pero resalta las debilidades estructurales no resueltas y el aumento de la incertidumbre.
Previsión de insolvencias de los mercados avanzadosIgnacio Jimenez
El entorno de insolvencia en la mayoría de los mercados avanzados registrará en 2016 poca o ninguna mejoría.
El informe difundido por Crédito y Caución alerta del agravamiento de las perspectivas de insolvencia en línea con las revisiones a la baja en las previsiones de crecimiento del PIB.
El informe recalca los efectos del Brexit, que influye en la confianza en muchos mercados avanzados y genera volatilidad en el mercado financiero. Tras la decisión del Reino Unido de salir de la Unión Europea, se prevé que sus insolvencias aumenten un 2% en 2016 y un 3% en 2017. La revisión de las previsiones ya está pesando sobre la confianza en muchos otros países de la zona euro, particularmente aquellos con alta exposición al Reino Unido.
Infografia: la gestion del riesgo en españa en numerosIgnacio Jimenez
Infografia que resume el estudio realizado por el IE Business School sobre la gestión de crédito en España con la colaboración de Iberinform y Crédito y Caución.
Plazos medios de pago, impagos significativos, comparación de impagos con la administración pública y entidades privadas.
El Barómetro de Prácticas de Pago revela el crecimiento del riesgo de crédito de las exportaciones de Europa del Este.
Europa del Este crecerá en 2016 en el entorno del 1,1%. A pesar del crecimiento de la región, su tejido empresarial afronta un incremento de la morosidad asociada a las exportaciones. Esta es una de las principales conclusiones de Barómetro de Prácticas de Pago difundido por Crédito y Caución, que muestra la preocupación del 20% de las empresas de la región, frente al 16% de Europa occidental, por sus niveles de flujos de caja debido al creciente riesgo de crédito del comercio derivado del retraso en los pagos de los compradores extranjeros.
Estudio gestión del riesgo de crédito - mayo 2016Ignacio Jimenez
Estudio de la Gestión del Riesgo de Crédito en España elaborado por el Observatorio de Cash Management que impulsan Iberinform, Crédito y Caución y el IE Business School
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
NO1 Uk Divorce problem uk all amil baba in karachi,lahore,pakistan talaq ka m...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
#vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore#blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #blackmagicforlove #blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #Amilbabainuk #amilbabainspain #amilbabaindubai #Amilbabainnorway #amilbabainkrachi #amilbabainlahore #amilbabaingujranwalan #amilbabainislamabad
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
NO1 Uk Black Magic Specialist Expert In Sahiwal, Okara, Hafizabad, Mandi Bah...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
#vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore#blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #blackmagicforlove #blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #Amilbabainuk #amilbabainspain #amilbabaindubai #Amilbabainnorway #amilbabainkrachi #amilbabainlahore #amilbabaingujranwalan #amilbabainislamabad
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
1. Summary
• A 52% majority of Britons voted in favour of leaving the EU; Prime Minister Cameron has announced his
resignation.
• The Brexit decision will have moderate effects on the EU in the short-term through uncertainty in
investment and trade, as well as in the long-term primarily through trade.
• Insolvencies expected to rise in the short-term, especially in Ireland, the Netherlands and Belgium, due
to close trade and investment ties. The remaining European countries would see little impact.
• Corporates operating in the transport equipment, food, textiles, electrical equipment and chemicals
sectors are most exposed due to close trade linkages.
Brexit as a European matter
On 23 June 2016, the UK voted to leave the European
Union. While the uncertainty of any future deals could
impact trade in the long term, existing trade agreements
will limit short term volatility. Brexit could trim 1% to 3%
off of UK GDP by 2018 and could be more in the longer
term, depending on the trade arrangement agreed upon.1
The economic ties between the UK and the rest of the EU
are among the deepest in the world so the EU would also
feel any disruption or slowdown in economic activity in
Britain. In this research note, we assess the effects that the
‘leave’ vote could have on businesses in the rest of Europe.
1
GDP forecasts gathered from recent studies on the impact of Brexit
from the OECD, LSE, HM Treasury, and NIESR.
Close trade and investment ties could signal
vulnerability
In the near term, Brexit negatively affects business and
consumer confidence as the UK moves into unknown
territory. Business sentiment has already deteriorated and
companies are delaying hiring and investment decisions
ahead of the referendum.2
The GBP exchange rate has
depreciated more than 5% in trade-weighted terms in 2016
while the implied volatility has also risen sharply.
2
As evidenced by polling by Markit and the UK Recruitment and
Employment Confederation.
Atradius Economic Research – June 2016
Higher insolvencies anticipated in
Europe following Brexit vote
2. 3
When referring to European countries, we are referring to the rest of
member states of the European Economic Area (EEA) plus Switzerland.
Figure 1 Volatility of GBP
Source: IHS
The UK will now undergo negotiations with the EU to
determine, among other things, the trade arrangement
between the two economies. There are several outcomes
that the trade negotiations could lead to, ranging from
WTO rules (least desirable) to a EU-UK free trade
agreement (FTA; most desirable). Depending on the
outcome of the negotiations, many new tariff and non-
tariff barriers may come into place and/or negotiations
may go on even longer. This negotiation phase will take
two years and negotiating an FTA could take even longer.
As a result, uncertainty will persist in the coming years
which would continue to be reflected in financial markets
and business sentiment. Borrowing would also become
more expensive for UK firms, as risk premia are likely to go
up, especially for those companies which are dependent on
trade with the EU.
For other European countries, both short-term and long-
term economic impacts would generally be felt through
two channels: trade and investment.3
Continental
Europeans would also be affected by similar decreases in
sentiment and rises in risk premia. Countries with a large
stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) and other assets in
the UK, such as property, equities and bonds, would see
the euro value of their assets decline in the wake of a
Brexit. This could cause foreign investors to become more
reluctant. Furthermore, countries with close trade ties to
the UK, as measured by exports to the country, would also
feel pressure from the lack of certainty about the final
trade arrangement. In the more medium term, any barriers
to trade would have negative impacts.
Figure 2 Vulnerable European countries
FDI (int’l investment position) vs. Exports (value added, % GDP)
Sources: ONS, OECD, Atradius
These trade and investment linkages are presented in
Figure 2.4
There are a small handful of countries that are
more exposed than the rest: Ireland and Norway in terms
of exports and the Netherlands in terms of FDI.
Luxembourg, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and
Belgium also stand out in both respects.
Moderate impact on insolvencies
The rate of business failures is very closely linked to
developments in GDP, so a deterioration in economic
growth should have adverse consequences for the
business environment. Most GDP impact studies focus on
long-term impact, but the commercial focus is more
immediate. Real disruptions to trade would not occur until
late 2018 when the UK would leave the EU. In the near
term, Atradius expects the uncertainty felt now – causing
investments to be postponed and business sentiment to
weaken – to lead an uptick in insolvencies across several
European countries with close trade and investment ties
with the UK.
In order to forecast the impact on insolvencies, we use the
OECD near-term GDP forecasts for Brexit.5
The effects are
cumulative over the coming two years. These short-term
impacts are primarily financial through two channels: first
is through shocks to financial conditions and confidence in
the UK alone and second is shocks to financial conditions in
Europe.
Figure 3 Brexit GDP forecasts – difference from baseline
2016-2018
Source: OECD
The drag on growth is most acute in the UK (-1.35
percentage points). The other forecasts are according to
groups of countries together with comparable levels of
vulnerability to the UK, broadly in line with the countries
we identify as most exposed.6
We apply the aggregate
group forecasts for each individual country as an indicator
of effects on GDP. Our insolvency forecasts are presented
in Figure 4.
4
Data are taken from OECD’s Trade In Value Added (TIVA) Database.
Though data are from 2011, it is reasonable to assume that trade
linkages have remained roughly the same in more recent years.
5
See Global Economic Outlook June 2016, OECD. Chapter 1, Box 1.1.
6
“Europe High” is the EEA countries highly exposed to the UK, including
Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland. “Europe Moderate”
are those countries with moderate exposure: Austria, Belgium,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Spain and Sweden.
25
50
75
100
2014 2015 2016
Norway
Ireland
Luxembourg
Denmark
Belgium
Netherlands
Spain
Germany
Sweden
Portugal
France
Switzerland
Italy
Greece
Austria
Finland
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
0 5 10
FDI(GBPbillion)
Exports
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
United Kingdom Europe High Europe Moderate
UK shock Europe shock
3. Figure 4 Brexit-related shifts in insolvencies
Cumulative difference from baseline 2016-2018
Source: Atradius Economic Research
As would be expected, the countries with the closest trade
and investment ties with the UK are those that are forecast
to see the sharpest rise in insolvencies. The effect on
bankruptcies in Ireland are expected to be nearly as strong
as that to be felt in the UK since Ireland sends nearly 10%
of its GDP worth of value added exports to the UK. Belgium
and the Netherlands are also forecast to see 2.5 and 2.0
percentage point higher insolvency levels respectively than
otherwise through both trade and investment channels.
Luxembourg and Norway would also likely see a higher
than otherwise level of insolvencies by 2018. The
remaining countries (including closely tied countries like
Switzerland, France and Germany) are all forecast to only
see 0.5 percentage point or less increase in insolvencies.
Most exposed sectors in European countries
A closer look at these vulnerable markets offers an
indication of the trade sectors that may be most exposed
to the UK exit. As mentioned, uncertainty is the key player
in the near term that could affect GDP and insolvencies. In
the longer term, trade is the primary channel as it would
only be effectively disrupted from 2019 on after the UK
officially leaves the EU. However, the deterioration in
confidence and potential decrease in UK import demand
(resulting from the weaker pound) in particular could lead
to short-term impacts on trade sectors as well.
Figure 5 presents which sectors in which countries are
most reliant on the UK for their exports. Across Europe, the
sectors that derive significant value added from exports to
the UK are transport equipment, food, textiles, electrical
equipment and chemicals. These sectors are likely to suffer
most. However, the sectors most exposed to the UK tend
to be small relative to the size of the economy, so that the
impact of the Brexit on the total economy will be much
smaller. Large sectors such as public services and
construction do not have that much exposure to the UK.
The impact on Ireland would span more sectors than other
countries – particularly manufacturing, food, and metals.
The electrical equipment sector in the Netherlands and
Luxembourg could be vulnerable to elevated insolvencies
while textiles and chemicals could face obstacles in the
Netherlands and Belgium. While Norway is not forecast to
see a large effect on bankruptcy rates due to Brexit, its
chemicals and metals sectors are highly exposed due to
the high ratio of exports to the UK. If followed by any trade
impediments, most of these countries would see parts of
their economies negatively affected and would likely
become more reluctant FDI investors in the UK.
Figure 5 Most at-risk sectors
Sources: OECD TIVA, Atradius
< 0.5
< 0.5
< 0.5
< 0.5
< 0.5
< 0.5
< 0.5
< 0.5
< 0.5
< 0.5
< 0.5
0.5
1.0
2.0
2.5
3.5
4.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Portugal
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
Austria
Germany
Greece
Italy
Switzerland
Spain
France
Norway
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Belgium
Ireland
UK
Agriculture
M
ining
Food
Textiles
Paper
Chem
icals
M
etals
M
achinery
Electrical
equip.Transport
equip.M
anufactur-
ing
Construct-
ion
Telecom
Fin.ServicesBusiness
services
Austria
Belgium
Switzerland
Germany
Denmark
Spain
Finland
France
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Sweden
Red = exports to UK are more than 10% of value added, Yellow = exports to UK are more than 5% but less than 10% of value added, Green = exports to
UK are less than 5% of value added
4. Disclaimer
This report is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or advice as to particular transactions, investments or
strategies in any way to any reader. Readers must make their own independent decisions, commercial or otherwise, regarding the information provided.
While we have made every attempt to ensure that the information contained in this report has been obtained from reliable sources, Atradius is not
responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information in this report is provided ’as is’, with
no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from its use, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied. In no
event will Atradius, its related partnerships or corporations, or the partners, agents or employees thereof, be liable to you or anyone else for any decision
made or action taken in reliance on the information in this report or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of
such damages.
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