10 Factors Changing Our Media and Our Lives
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The document discusses 10 factors that are changing media and lives: 1) Predictability is decreasing as viewing habits become less predictable; 2) Scarcity is being challenged as distribution pipelines expand; 3) Brands are becoming more important cues for consumers; 4) Excess capital is fueling opportunities for deals and partnerships; 5) Consumers are becoming content creators through user-generated content and social networks; 6) Data is becoming a valuable commodity that can be used for behavioral targeting and direct response advertising.
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10 Factors Changing Our Media and Our Lives
- 1. 10 Factors Changing Our Media and Our Lives Gigi Johnson Faculty Director, EMEP 2008 UCLA Anderson MBA ’88 President, Maremel Ventures, Inc. Lecturer, UCLA Anderson October 2008
- 2. Bets on the Futures
- 3. Power in New Hands/Voices Founded 1994 Mkt Cap: $18 bn (was $37 bn) Founded 1998 Mkt Cap: $117 bn (was $142 bn) Launched PC 2003 Founded 2003 Sold for $580MM Founded 2005 Sold for $1.65 bn Founded 2/04 Microsoft paid $240MM for 1.6% 10/07
- 6. Maximize Economic Rent by Slicing Time and Space Rights Location Time Shifting Multiple Use Multiple Media Example Venue None 1 No Theater, sporting event, concerts Venue Yes 1 No Theatrical movies Home None 1 No (Historically) Television Home None 1 No Radio Home Yes Some No Rental Home Video/DVD Home Yes 1 No Digital download services with time limits (Movielink, etc.) Home Yes Yes No DVD; books, newspapers; DVRs (digital video recorders, like Tivo) Any Yes Yes Yes Downloaded Digital Music and Video
- 7. Pipe Battles, Round One: Cable/Satellite Faceoff Maremel Ventures Page
- 11. US: 10 Hours Per Day Consuming Media Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson, MPAA
- 12. Share of Time: Primary Currency Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson, MPAA
- 13. U.S. Share of Wallet: Almost $850/person/year Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson; MPAA
- 14. Shifting Seas and Shifting Revenues
- 15. Significant Economics of Time and Money: DVD Maremel Ventures Source: MPA
- 17. DVDs – Quick Plateau
- 20. Cable Channel Expansion Maremel Ventures Page Source: Screen Digest, FCC, NCTA 1994: Launch of Digital Satellite 1997: Launch of Digital Cable
- 21. … but we’re watching 15-16? Maremel Ventures Page
- 23. Maremel Ventures Page SOURCE: NIELSEN MEDIA RESEARCH, FEB. EACH YEAR
- 25. TV Embedded Messaging to Keep Viewer Attention
- 29. “ Wired” 2004 Concept – The Long Tail
- 31. One example: migration from traditional broadcast radio Maremel Ventures
- 37. Alliances Around Aggregators Winter 2008
- 44. Gartner’s Technology Life Cycle Models
- 45. What about Old businesses…Flow to Films…What Do They Know? Source: HLHZ 5/07
- 50. Avatars for Kids? Stardoll 1.1MM uniques Club Penguin – 6mm monthly uniques Doppelganger’s The Lounge Gaia Online 2MM uniques/month 1MM posts/day Habbo Hotel – 200K U/M Webkinz -- 6mm uniques/month
- 51. Digital Evangelism into Old Media
- 59. Social Network Environment 4/07 U.S. Maremel Ventures
- 61. Global Differences in Influence
- 63. Yet We Aren’t All in the Pool Source: Pew Internet Study May 2007
- 65. And from Networks, Traffic
- 66. And Selling (To) Different Users
- 68. One-way Media – Broadcast
- 69. One-way Media – Cable 1980s-1990s Satellite Headend TV(s) & analog cable box Viewer(s) Project Canoe
- 79. Platform A/AOL Family Quigo 11/07 Tacoda 7/07 Third Screen Media 5/07 Advertising.com 6/04 Lightningcast 5/06 AdTech 5/07 Relegence 11/06 Userplane 8/06 Truveo 12/05 Weblogs 10/05 Xdrive 8/05 Wildseed, Ltd 8/05
- 82. Past Successful Format Adoptions Sources: Rogers (1995), Steinberg (1980) The DVD is the fastest adopted consumer technology in the history of mankind. Faster than TV’s, cell phones, VCR’s, and even the internet! Technology Introduction Take off (20%) Saturation (80%) B&W TV 1928 1950 1959 Color TV 1951 1964 1981 HDTV 1993 2008??? ??? AM Radio 1912 1920 1943 FM Radio 1934 1940 1979 VCR 1964 1980 2000 DVD 1997 1998 2006
- 85. The Gear Wars – Selling New Gear to Do What?
- 86. #8: Growing Internet Family Source: Universal McCann NextThingNow 4/08
- 87. Global Shift in Participation Source: Universal McCann NextThingNow 4/08
- 88. UK Media: How to Monetize This?
- 89. Medium for Social Change Source: NYT, 5/29/07
- 92. Now “Quadruple Play”? Pipes, Gardens? Video Voice Mobile Data/Web