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We Are All
Futurists:
Rethinking and
Retooling for
Possible Digital
Future(s)
Exploring and
disrupting beliefs/norms
around the present and
futures of work and
information decision
systems
Dr. Gigi Johnson
Maremel Institute
Retooling
for…what
futures?
●What if we knew “The Future”?
●WHOSE future?
●Are we futures takers or futures
creators?
●What would we retool and rebuild as
individuals and experts making
decisions?
●What would we do within our
organizations?
What would
we do if we
“really
knew”?
Would we find
good news in bad?
And take action?
Khan Academy 2008 //
Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy 1951-53
Vannevar
Bush:
Created
Memex;
Coodinated
War Tech
1945
●As We May Think
Warned of
Human
Challenges of
Change
1970
1982
1987-
1994
1987 Star Trek
Holodeck
“Cyborg
Anthropology”
Sub-specialty launched at the Annual Meetings of the
American Anthropological Association, associated
with the Committee for the Anthropology of Science,
Technology, and Computing.
How humans and non-human objects interact with
each other, and how that changes culture.
-- Amber Case
1993
Fiction and
Movies:
Framing
Future
Experiences
●1982 - Bladerunner –Nov. 2019
timeline
●1984 - The Terminator– Skynet
“ 2:14 a.m. Eastern time on
August 29th 1997”
●1995 - first In Death book by JD
Robb (Nora Roberts) in 2058 NYC
●1999 - The Matrix
●2002 - Minority Report - MIT’s
work spurred Oblong human-
computer interface
●2011 – Ready Player One – in
2045 – 2018 film
●2015 -Ex Machina – 2015
Framing
Processes
of Futuring:
2004
Futuring: The exploration of the future. World
Future Society, Edward Cornish
2008
Wall-E Hove
2009
Up, 2009
16
New Expectations of “Experience“
“FOMO”: Fear of Missing Out
2019
And Now 2020
202
1
The “Futures”
of Work
“The” Future?
Whose future?
Who is influencing our
perspectives and
choices?
Participative Futuring?
Foresight and trend
analysis as a
consulting business
Prediction
Marketplaces
Labor Data
Analytics
and ML
Futuring
Organizations
and Publications
Institute for the Future
World Future Society
Futurist Magazine
Futures Research Quarterly
Journal of Futures Studies (2007-present)
Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies (1971-2014)
http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/
Institute for the
Future
20 Combintorial
Forecasts
Institute for the Future: http://www.iftf.org/maps/20-combinatorial-forecasts/20-combinatorial-forecasts-map/
Global Trends
2040
Bioconvergence
2040
National
Intelligence
Council 2021
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Global Trends
2040
Future of
Work 2040
National
Intelligence
Council 2021
Our Focus:
Current/Futures
of Information
and
Automation
in/with Work
• Automation
• Digitization
• Augmentation
“Work” –
Individual level
• Remote
• Global
• Collaborative Systems
Workplace
• “Ma” – space in between
• Collaboration
• Gig
• Hiring / Training /
Retention
Systems
Exponential
Growth in
Information
Gartner Hype
Cycle
for Emerging
Technologies
(2019 / 2021)
https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-
trends-appear-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-
emerging-technologies-2019/
Word
Accuracy
(Kleiner
Perkins)
Partial List of
AI
Performance
2019 IBM
Cognitive
Opentech
Group
Decreasing
Cost of a
Digital
Worker (to
whom?)
2017 IBM
Cognitive
Opentech
Group
IBM Open AI
Five Segments of Smart Machines
●Source: BCC Research / Siemens.com
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages
McKinsey impact by
2030
McKinsey
Framework
Data
Management
as 5C’s of the
Future
MIS Quarterly
Research Curations
2022
https://www.misqrese
archcurations.org/blog
/2022/2/11/data-
management
How do we
rethink and
retool?
How do we as people, information system
professionals, and thought leaders?
Teams, Collective
Working, and
Algorithms
Store,
Recombine,
Recall,
Connect
Filter
Discover
Recognize
Work
Decisions
Emotions
Collaborate
Combine
INPUT OUTPUT
Input Mind Output
What do we
know…and
how do we
work in the
Gaps? Now
Near
Futures
Far
Futures
Stepping
into the Near
Future
Weak Signals – What is “coming” vs. here
… as I’ve said many times the future is
already here — it’s just not very evenly
distributed.”
-- William Gibson, 1999 NPR interview
Big Picture
Issues:
Look at other
sectors for
what already
is happening
Impact of Connected Tech and Data Decision
Systems on…
●Medical care
●Biotech
●Industrial Work
●Agriculture
●Education
●Gig Economy
●Creative Work
●Large Corporations
●Aging
●Transportation
●Digital Home
●Travel/Tourism
●Immigration/Migration
Business
Models to
pull
attention,
influence,
and decisions
Smartphone
Dependence:
Dscout study,
2016, 94 people
https://blog.dscout.com/mobile-touches
Tristan Harris, https://journal.thriveglobal.com/how-technology-hijacks-peoples-minds-from-a-magician-and-
google-s-design-ethicist-56d62ef5edf3
If you control the
Menu, You Control the
Choices
Tristan Harris
Music Use
and
Location:
Training Us
and Selling
our
Behaviors to
Brands
Behavioral Segmentation
Newsfeeds Curated
Data + Natural Language Processing
=
Alexa Questions
Adding to Where You Are: Computer Vision and AR in
RL
On the Good Side:
Augmented
Creativity,
Computational
Creativity and
Creative Systems
●Creative systems: Ben
Shneiderman, Univ. Of
Maryland College Park, defined
it, technologies that allow
more people “to be more
creative more of the time””
●AI to support Business Process
Reingineering – Disney, Fox, ???
●AI to support creative processes
– Fox, Warner Bros. company-
wide systems; embedded in
creative support tools
●DESKILLING and broadening
use by DAWs, game engines,
plugins, and no-code creative
tools
So How Do We Retool our
Decision Information
Support Systems for a Digital
Future?
Store,
Recombine,
Recall,
Connect
Filter
Discover
Recognize
Work
Decisions
Emotions
Collaborate
Combine
INPUT OUTPUT
Input Mind Output
What do we
worry from
Near to Far
Futures?
Now
Near
Futures
Far
Futures
AI, Big Data,
and Tracking
Customers
●AI and Big Data to connect customers, mass data, and
behaviors
●Datorama BI (now part of Salesforce)
●Pex, with 10,000 servers, scraping and computer
vision detecting audiovisual near real time
●Satellite coverage of parking lots, military, and
agritech
Gathering
Remote Raw
Data . . . And
Aggregating
It
Grokking
Data for
Decisions
and Decision
Support
Systems
And beyond:
Weaponizing
and Filtering
by Beliefs
and
Information
●Propaganda – not new
●Mythopoesis – Finnish Defense Forces tracking a
decade of narrative shifting beliefs about probable
futures
●David Boje – antenarratives – pieces of social stories to
be recrafted into worlds
●Now: Personalized based on attitudes; changing past
and view of the future
●Agnotology – production of ignorance
●Data voids – being filled in by players
●Organized Immaturity – systems reducing our agency
and executive functions by design and marketplace
●2016 – erasing Whitehouse.gov – moved to a different site
●Hyperlinks – not permanent views and shares of the
past
●My brief time in ICANN – Brazil and Russia looking to
create separate Internets
● “Frictionless” autonomous car environments
Tristan Harris’
Solutions –
Designing Systems
to Value our
Time
●https://journal.thriveglobal.com/how-technology-
hijacks-peoples-minds-from-a-magician-and-
google-s-design-ethicist-56d62ef5edf3
What do we
know…and
how do we
work in the
Gaps?
And help our
organizations
build Decision
Resilliance?
Now
Near
Futures
Far
Futures
The Industries of the Future
(2016), Alex Ross
Algorithms to Live By: The
Computer Science of Human
Decisions (2016), Brian
Christian, Tom Griffiths
The Master Algorithm (2016), Pedro
Domingos
Data and Goliath: The Hidden
Battles to Collect Your Data and
Control Your World (2015), Bruch
Rise of the Robots: Technology
and a Threat of a Jobless Futures
(2016), Martin Ford
The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and
Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies
(2014), Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee
The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight
for a Human Future at the New Frontier of
Power (2019), Shoshana Zuboff
Weapons of Math Destruction:
How Big Data Increases Inequality and
Threatens Democracy (2016), Kathy O’Neil
Books 1
Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers,
Strategies (2016), Nick Bostrom,
Future of Humanity Institute
Possible Minds: 25 Ways of
Looking at AI (2019), ed. John
Brockman
The Inevitable: Understanding the 12
Technological Forces That Will Shape
Our Future (2016), Kevin Kelly
Superforecasting: The Art and
Science of Prediction (2016)
Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Future Babble: Why Expert
Predictions are Next to
Worthless, and You Can Do
Better (2011), Daniel Gardner
The Future: A Very Short
Introduction (2017),
Jennifer Gidley
Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of
Artificial Intelligence (2018), Max
Tegmark (MIT)
AI Superpowers: China, Silicon
Valley, and the New World Order
(2018), Kai-Fu Lee
Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing
Our Digital Future (2017 ), Andrew
McAfee, Erik Berynholfsson
Shaping the Future of the Fourth
Industrial Revolution (2018) Klaus
Schwab, Nicholas Davis, Satya
Nadella
http://artxsmart.tumblr.com/
Artxsmart
Gigi Johnson, EdD
gigi@maremel.com
@maremel
@gigijohnson
Related
Research
●Smartphone owners interact with their phones an average of 85
times a day, including immediately upon waking up, just before
going to sleep, and even in the middle of the night
(Perlow 2012; Andrews et al. 2015; dscout 2016).
●Ninety-one percent report that they never leave home without
their phones (Deutsche Telekom 2012),
●46% say that they couldn’t live without them (Pew Research
Center 2015).
●Smartphones promise to create a surplus of resources,
productivity, and time (e.g., Turkle 2011; Lee 2016
●Consumers’ interactions with their smartphones can both
facilitate and interrupt off-screen performance (e.g., Isikman et
al. 2016; Sciandra and Inman 2016).
●Capacity limits shape a wide range of behaviors, from in-the-
moment decision-making strategies and performance (e.g.,
Lane 1982; Lynch and Srull 1982) to long-term goal pursuit and
self-regulation (e.g., Hofmann, Strack, and Deutsch 2008;
Benjamin, Brown, and Shapiro 2013).
Futurist
Societies
from Ross
Dawson
●Global Associations
– Association of Professional Futurists (APF)
– International Institute of Forecasters (IIF)
– LaFutura
– The Millennium Project
– World Futures Society (WFS)
– World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF)
●National/Regional Associations
– Center for Philippine Futuristics Studies and Management Inc. (APF)
– Dutch Futures Society (DFS)
– European Foresight Platform (EFP)
– Finnish Society for Futures Studies
– Futures Specialists Helsinki
– Futuribles
– Institute for Futures Research (IFR)
– Italian Institute for the Future (IIF)
– Kansallinen ennakointiverkosto (KEV) (National Foresight Network)
– Netzwerk Zukunftsforschung e.V. (Network Future Research e. V.)
– Polish Society for Future Studies
– Prospective 2100
– The Futures Foundation
●Sector Specific Associations
– Communities of the Future (COTF)
– Euroconstruct
– Public Sector Foresight Network (PSFN)
– Society of Police Futurists International
Visual Notes, EPIC Conference Jan. 2019 Keynote
EPIC Notes
https://rossdawson.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/FutureofWork.pdf
We all understand the joys of our
always-wired world—the connections,
the validations, the laughs … the info.
… But we are only beginning to get our
minds around the costs.
Andrew Sullivan, New York Magazine,
Sept. 2016, “I Used to Be a Human Being”

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