brief idea

1. APPRAISAL OF OUTER RING
ROAD(HYDERABAD) PROJECT
V.SHIVA PRAKASH
141576

2. INTRODUCTION
 Hyderabad Urban Development Authority (HUDA) is
currently engaged in developing a 162.38 km long ORR
(Outer Ring Road) to the Hyderabad City connecting
various National Highways and State Highways in and
around the city. It is to be developed in three stages
involving private partnership from the years 2007-2037.
 The study is a critical appraisal of the project including
financial analysis, economic analysis,impacting the
viability of the project, risk analysis and stakeholder
benefits.

3. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE
PROJECT:
Objectives:
 Assessment of the financial viability of the proposed
investment in the project
 Assessment of the adequacy of the financing plan for
the project
 Sensitivity analysis of how the project’s returns are
impacted as a result of change in project variables
Analysis methodology:
The input data was obtained by the estimates and
reports of financial consultant,and interviews with
HUDA officials during the study of the project. The
analysis considers a time period of 30 years from FY07
to FY37. This includes the initial 5 years of construction
from FY07 to FY11.

4. PROJECT REVENUES:
Four major revenue streams were considered namely:
 Revenue from value addition charges: HUDA intends to
develop the land adjoining ORR and make it commercially
viable. It is proposed that buyers will pay HUDA for both
the land and the built up space.
 Revenue from development of intersection land banks: In
the ORR, there are 10 major intersections where 250
acres of land will be available for commercial development.
HUDA intends to commercially develop these intersections
land banks on a PPP basis. The two potential revenue
streams associated with this is
a) license fees the land/buildings will bring in
b) revenue sharing on the rental income
received wherein HUDA has decided that 3% of its total

5. CONTD..
 Revenue from sale of land for township development:
HUDA intends to develop the land banks in the vicinity
of ORR as independent townships on a PPP basis. 12
Areas have been planned to be sold to developers for
township development between FY08 and FY12. The
townships derive value only because of ORR, and so
revenues from sale of land for township development
are included in the financial model. The year wise
sales schedule and potential revenue generated are
shown in the excel sheet. The basic assumptions
regarding development expenses incurred is 10% of
sales value and capital gains taxes to be paid are
20% of gains after reducing development expenses.
These will be deducted from gross revenue and net
revenue is calculated.

6. CONTD..
Toll Revenues: The Government is favorable to implement
toll collection at a future date. But currently the possibility
is
an uncertainty due to present political compulsions. Hence
toll
revenues are not considered for the financial model as a
conservative measure.

7. CONTD..
COSTS:
The cost heads are classified into two major categories
a)Initial capital costs
b) Subsequent Annual maintenance costs and fixed
obligations
Initial Capital Costs: Falls under two heads further
a) Construction Costs and
b) Relief and rehabilitation costs
Fixed Compulsory Expenses: Falls under two heads
a) BOT Annuity to private partner and
b)Maintenance to be incurred by HUDA

8. RESULT
 The NPV of the project works out to be INR 542 crore
using base costs and assumptions. The project can be
financially viable provided it is completed as per
project plan and the initial costs and revenue
estimates.
 The IRR computations is 218% .This is not a a
reliable figure, because of multiple changes in cash
flows.

9. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
RELIEF AND REHABILITATION ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
 Construction of the ORR will lead to the displacement of several
families living in the affected area. HUDA has announced the
Relief and Rehabilitation measures for those individuals and
families that are affected by the ORR project
Cost – Benefit analysis of R&R:
Agricultural and vacant land-owners and encroached/assigned
land losers:
All owners of agricultural or vacant land are entitled to a
cash compensation of 180% of the approved land rate (LAO). In
the case
of a landowner losing 80% or more of his/her land holdings due
to acquisition by HUDA, they are entitled to a developed plot
of approximately 360 sq. ft. per acre lost.

10. COSTS
 The economic value of the land was calculated by
considering the annual revenues obtained from
the land as perpetuity, and thereby calculating the
value of the land based on a 12.5% rate of
interest on the perpetuity. The per acre cost of
land for each village based on both the methods
described above were compared, and the higher
cost was taken as the per acre cost of land in
each village. In this manner the total economic
costs of the land lost by project affected families
across all affected villages were calculated.This
cost was estimated to be INR 240 crore.

11. BENEFITS
The benefits for agricultural and vacant landowners who
were displaced were two-fold. First, a
cashcompensation
of 180% of the market value of the land inclusive of a
42% solatium was paid to each of the affected
landowners.
In addition, it was assumed that 20% of the landowners
whose
lands were acquired would lose 80%or more of their
land holdings – a conservative estimate from the
Stake holder’s perspective.
 The NPV arrived at was INR266.5 crore, indicating
that the compensation awarded to this group of
affected families was well in excess of the losses
incurred.

12. OVERALL ANALYSIS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS:
The study is based on the data provided at a stage
when HUDA was trying to attract JICA, a
multilateral lending agency for investing in phase
2B of the project.
 The financial analysis shows a positive NPV
which is based on many assumptions of revenue
inflow, which are highly sensitive to changes in
variables. To attract an investor in such a
scenario would require strong Government
Commitment to pay off the annuity.

13. CONTD..
 The IRR in the financial flow again is based on
varied cash flows that could be misleading since
these are based on projections subjected to
change in political environment
E.g.: In ORR, an agitation over Telangana can
make the law and order vulnerable and the
project could be stalled, the townships sales need
not take off, the expected percentage value
additions could be less etc