Global View - Market analysis - Week Ending January 29, 2016
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Here is brief presentation on the markets including factors that may influence the overall market returns for the next few quarters. It should be noted that we are in period of low commodity prices led by slower economic growth Caution: This analysis is just one opinion of the market including the key drivers. It is up to individuals to do their own plan including reaching out to trusted financial adviser https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0UuAoSMOVU
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Global View - Market analysis - Week Ending January 29, 2016
- 1. Global View – Canada – W/E January 29, 2015 By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
- 2. Employment - Canada • Job Creation • The breakdown by full-time versus part-time jobs was strongly skewed toward full-time employment. 147,400 new full-time jobs were created over 2015 and 267,500 new FT jobs were created since June of 2014 after which commodities plunged. • Both government payrolls and private sector payrolls have contributed to hiring. The private sector added 30,600 jobs in 2015 and 89,500 since June 2014 while the public sector added 39,600 last year and 75,200 since mid-2014 • Key Quotes
- 3. US GDP • Consumer Spending up 3% • Inventories grew by 60% from October. • Impact on manufacturing
- 4. Canada - GDP • Key Comments • Service sector output was up 0.2% because of retail (+1.3%) and wholesale (+1.2%) trade as well as transportation and warehousing (+0.8%). Mild gains in the service sector were also registered in real estate services (+0.3%), professional/ scientific (+0.1%) and management services (+0.3%). Very soft gains and contractions were mixed across other service categories. • Within the goods sector and in addition to what has already been observed in mining, note that manufacturing output was up 0.4% m/m, construction was flat, and the ag/fishing/forestry sector was up 0.5%.
- 5. Key Areas Key Drivers • Automotive Sales are expected to grow in 2016 • US housing starts should remain vibrant • US Consumer spending should remain vibrant Key issues • Low commodity price • Slow growth China • Iran trade sanctions lifted
- 7. Market Outlook – January 29, 2015
- 8. Market Outlook – January 29, 2015
- 10. North American Markets / TSX
Editor's Notes
- Scotiabank Economics CFIB - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/7114-public-sector-workers-earn-more-work-less.html
- ScotiaBank Reuters In the third quarter, businesses accumulated $90.2 billion worth of inventories, instead of the $56.8 billion reported last month. That followed more than $100 billion worth of inventories accumulated in each of the prior two quarters. As a result, the change in inventories chopped off only 0.59 percentage point from third-quarter GDP growth, rather than the 1.44 percentage points the government reported in October. That, however, suggests inventories could be a drag on fourth-quarter growth. "The bigger inventory overhang helps explain why manufacturing sentiment remains cautious early in the fourth quarter, and does present downside risk to our 2.5 percent estimate for current-quarter GDP growth," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a still strong 3.0 percent rate in the third quarter, down from the 3.2 percent rate estimated last month. The downward revisions mostly reflected weak outlays on communication services and utilities. A measure of private domestic demand, which excludes trade, inventories and government spending, was revised down to a still sturdy 3.1 percent pace from the previously 3.2 percent rate. Though there are signs consumer spending slowed early in the fourth quarter, it should continue to be supported by strong income gains. Income at the disposal of households after adjusting for inflation rose at a robust 3.9 percent pace in the third quarter. A trade deficit that was larger than previously estimated subtracted 0.22 percentage point from GDP growth in the third quarter. Data on Tuesday showing a smaller goods trade deficit suggested trade would contribute to fourth-quarter growth. Deep spending cuts by energy firms following a collapse in oil prices continued to weigh on growth. Spending on mining exploration, wells and shafts tumbled at a 47.1 percent rate, rather than the 46.9 percent pace reported last month. However, business spending on equipment was revised up to a 9.5 percent rate from a 5.3 percent pace. The Commerce Department also reported that corporate profits after tax fell at a 1.6 percent rate in the third quarter after rising at a 2.6 percent pace in the second quarter. Profits, which have been undercut by the dollar's strength and lower oil prices, were down 8.1 percent from a year ago, the biggest decline since the fourth quarter of 2008.
- Scotia bank
- Scotia Bank
- BMO Economics
- BMO
- BMO