Canada – Employment – February 2016 - Job Losses and Job Creation
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This presentation will discuss the job market for February 2016. The analysis will look at job creation as well as job losses including what is happening within a particular industry.
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Canada – Employment – February 2016 - Job Losses and Job Creation
- 1. Canada – Employment – February 2016 By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA March 13, 2016
- 2. Disclaimer • This presentation is one opinion on the labor market for Canada
- 3. Paul Young - Presenter Bio • CPA/CGA • 25 years of experience in Academia, Industry and Financial solutions • Youtube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAArky1bAXPSuV2NLtUnyLg
- 5. Executive Summary • Canadian employment was little changed on the headline but the details are curious. The currency initially weakened on the headline reaction but is coming back probably as the details get questioned. • Of particular note is that we’re asked to believe that jobs in the health & social services and education sectors are suddenly among the riskiest and most volatile ones out there as they accounted for much of the weakness alongside other service sectors that suddenly shed jobs in categories that we find to be unusual. These two broad health and education sectors combined to shed a fairly enormous 36,500 jobs in a single month. • Health care jobs are up 60,500 y/y but fell by one-third of that amount in a single month (-19,600). I’m unaware of large sudden lay announcements in this sector. Jobs in the education fell 16,900 in a single month and that accounts for most of the -22,800 job losses in this sector y/y. ‘Other’ services that have been flat over the past year suddenly shed 14,900 jobs in February? And forget about the C$ encouraging more Canadians to travel within the country and more foreign tourists to come here — • the accommodation and food services category dropped 11,200 jobs and is down 48k over the past year. I find it unusual for employment in these sectors to be so volatile with large sudden single month cuts particularly in sectors with employment rigidities. Goods producing sectors were up sharply (+42.2k) but services were down 44,500. Within the goods sector, construction jobs were up 34,000. 34,000! That might be a milder than usual winter effect, or noise. Manufacturing jobs were up 7,600 and agriculture was up by a similar amount while natural resource employment fell by 8,900. • The unemployment rate ticked higher to 7.3%. • Public sector payroll employment was down 20,400 but private payroll jobs were up 15,200 netting to a drop in payroll employment of 5,300. Within sectors, most services were lower. Self employed jobs were flat (+3k) and when added to the drop in payroll employment nets out to the mild headline 2,300 loss. By province, most of the headline decline was focused upon Ontario (-11,200) and Saskatchewan (-7,800) while employment in Alberta was flat (+1,400) and British Columbia added 14,100 jobs.
Editor's Notes
- http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/scotiaflash20160311.pdf
- Stats Canada
- http://niagaraatlarge.com/2016/03/10/ontario-government-cuts-to-health-care-hurt-patients-and-provinces-vulnerable/
- http://www.thestar.com/yourtoronto/education/2016/03/09/tdsb-approves-cutting-teacher-jobs-as-enrolment-dips.html