ONS Economic Forum, Cambridge
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ONS Economic Forum, Cambridge
- 1. Statistics for the public good Ed Palmer Deputy Chief Economist, Economic Advice and Analysis Office for National Statistics … and Clare (1991) economic.advice@ons.gov.uk Economic Forum, University of Cambridge 30 November 2018
- 2. To discuss today • UK Statistics Authority and the Office for National Statistics: our status and role • What the ONS does • Why we are transforming • Some examples of how we are transforming 2
- 3. The status and role of the UK Statistics Authority • An independent statutory body • Operating at arm’s length from government as a non- ministerial department, reporting directly to the UK’s Parliaments and Assemblies • In law (the Statistics and Registration Services Act 2007) our objective is: “promoting and safeguarding the production and publication of official statistics that serve the public good” • And that public good includes: • informing the public about social and environmental matters • assisting in the development and evaluation of public policy • regulating quality and publicly challenging the misuse of statistics 3
- 5. Who are we? • Economic, public policy and population statistics • Other government Departments also provide statistics, e.g. energy, health, environment • Our responsibility is for coherence of system as a whole • Census provider in England and Wales • Office locations in Newport, Titchfield, London UK Statistics Authority Other government stats producers Office for National Statistics Office for Statistics Regulation 5
- 6. Explaining the statistics you see in the news: November 2018 6
- 7. And a lot more: GDP growth Inflation (Un)employment Wages Trade Public finances Regional and country economic data Crime Births, deaths and marriages Population Migration Health and social care Personal income and wealth Well-being Environment …and more 7
- 8. Economic Statistics: transformation 8 • Users’ needs are changing • Economy is evolving quickly • Opportunities from new data sources • ONS needs to be more open Bean Independent Review of UK Economic Statistics 2016 Johnson • UK Consumer Prices Stats – A Review 2015 Barker / Ridgeway • National Statistics Quality Review 2014 Best Practice • European System of Accounts 2010
- 9. Data are central to the decisions which affect our lives Data are now available from previously unimaginable sources We treat personal data confidentially and make sense of numbers for the public good Economic Statistics: transformation 9
- 10. Three ways of calculating GDP Expenditure GDP(E) How much is spent Output GDP (O) How much is produced Income GDP (I) How much is earned 10
- 11. Three ways of calculating GDP Expenditure GDP(E) How much is spent Use of credit card data Retail sales Output GDP (O) How much is produced Use of VAT data Purchases Survey Improving Deflators Income GDP (I) How much is earned Use of PAYE & Self-Assessment data Improving the Supply-Use system 11
- 12. VAT: the benefits Current system Turnover is used as a proxy for gross value added Surveys sent to 45,000 firms each month Limited regional and local estimates Refreshing a survey takes time to get new data Future system VAT could give us GVA – in time… 2m returns each quarter Significant increase in granularity of estimates Admin data comes with historical data for rapid use 12
- 14. PAYE: the benefits Current system Average Weekly Earnings x employment = Salaries Labour Force Survey sent to 40,000 households Monthly Wages & Salaries Survey sent to 9,000 firms monthly Future system PAYE = Salaries + some pensions 65m records within 2 weeks, including 18m pension payments 14
- 15. Economic Statistics: analysis and research Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence • National Accounts and Beyond GDP • Productivity and the modern economy • Regional and labour market statistics • www.escoe.ac.uk 15 ONS Economic Statistics and Analysis Strategy • Sets out for users, stakeholders and researchers clarity on how we are working to improve UK economic statistics. • https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/clas sificationsandstandards/economicstatistic sclassifications/onseconomicstatisticsand analysisstrategyfinancialyearending2019
- 16. Understanding the UK economy Ellys Monahan Office for National Statistics economic.advice@ons.gov.uk University of Cambridge 30 November 2018
- 17. Latest data from the ONS • GDP • Economic well-being • Inflation • Employment • Productivity 17
- 18. GDP growth: 0.6% in Quarter 3 2018 18 Gross domestic product growth rate, quarter-on-quarter and quarter on same quarter a year ago UK, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018 Source: ONS
- 19. UK growth compared to other G7 countries 19Source: OECD and ONS
- 20. Latest data from ONS • GDP • Economic well-being • Inflation • Employment • Productivity 20
- 21. Economic well-being dashboard, Q2 2018 21Source: ONS
- 22. Latest data from ONS • GDP • Economic well-being • Inflation • Employment • Productivity 22
- 23. Measures of inflation: input producer prices, output producer prices, consumer prices 23Source: ONS 12-month growth rates for input producer prices and output producer prices (left-hand side), and Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) (right-hand side)
- 24. What is driving the growth in consumer prices? 24Source: ONS Contributions to the CPIH 12-month rate: October 2016 to October 2018
- 25. House prices, inflation and wages 25Source: ONS, Land Registry Index, January 2007 = 100 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2007 JAN 2007 JUL 2008 JAN 2008 JUL 2009 JAN 2009 JUL 2010 JAN 2010 JUL 2011 JAN 2011 JUL 2012 JAN 2012 JUL 2013 JAN 2013 JUL 2014 JAN 2014 JUL 2015 JAN 2015 JUL 2016 JAN 2016 JUL 2017 JAN 2017 JUL 2018 JAN 2018 JUL East of England Great Britain Cambridge CPIH AWE
- 26. Latest data from ONS • GDP • Economic well-being • Inflation • Employment • Productivity 26
- 27. Labour market headline figures 27Source: ONS UK, seasonally adjusted, Jan to Mar 2006 to July to Sep 2018 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 Jan-Mar 2006 Jan-Mar 2007 Jan-Mar 2008 Jan-Mar 2009 Jan-Mar 2010 Jan-Mar 2011 Jan-Mar 2012 Jan-Mar 2013 Jan-Mar 2014 Jan-Mar 2015 Jan-Mar 2016 Jan-Mar 2017 Jan-Mar 2018 Employment rate % (Age 16-64) LHS Unemployment rate % (Age 16-64) RHS
- 28. Latest data from ONS • GDP • Economic well-being • Inflation • Employment • Productivity 28
- 29. Productivity performance is a key weakness 29Source: ONS Output per hour and output per worker. Seasonally adjusted Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1994 to Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2018, UK
- 30. Latest data from ONS • GDP • Economic well-being • Inflation • Employment • Productivity 30
- 31. Recent developments in ONS economic statistics - a regional perspective Richard Prothero Head of ONS Centre for Subnational Analysis,
- 32. Devolution Programme A programme to improve ONS regional and local statistics. Regional Balanced GVA Regional & Sub-Regional Household Final Consumption Expenditure Regional Short Term Indicators Country and Regional Public Sector Finances Exports of Services Data Productivity Small Area Data Flexible Geographies Investigating Uses of Administrative Data Regional Prices Stakeholder Engagement
- 33. Economic growth by region/country UK UK -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 NorthEast NorthWest YorkshireandTheHumber EastMidlands WestMidlands EastofEngland London SouthEast SouthWest Wales Scotland NorthernIreland NorthEast NorthWest YorkshireandTheHumber EastMidlands WestMidlands EastofEngland London SouthEast SouthWest Wales Scotland NorthernIreland 1998-2007 2010-2016 % Annual growth rates of real GVA by NUTS1 regions, UK, 1998-2007 and 2010-2016
- 34. Economic Growth by Industry Groups
- 35. Labour Productivity since 2007 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Real GVA Growth Growth in Hours Worked Growth in GVA versus hours worked, NUTS 2, 2007-2016. Decrease in Labour Productivity Increase in Labour Productivity Chart from ONS Regional and sub-regional productivity in the UK: February 2018 East Anglia
- 36. Sub-regional Labour Productivity Nominal GVA per hour worked (£) 2016 – NUTS 3 sub-regions GVA per hour (£)
- 37. Distribution of firm level productivity (GVA per worker) in the non-financial business economy, NUTS1 regions, 2015
- 38. Distribution of local plant productivity by industry groups, 2015 Source: ABS
- 39. European Comparisons: Labour Productivity By Nuts 1 Region
- 40. European Comparisons: Household Income by Nuts 1 region
- 41. Net Fiscal Balance by country and region, 2016/2017 (£million) • In the financial year ending (FYE) 2017, all countries and regions except London, the South East and the East of England had a public sector net fiscal deficit. • This was the same when North Sea oil and gas revenue was allocated to regions on both geographic and population shares (the chart shows the geographic share). -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 London South East East of England South West East Midlands North East Yorkshire and the Humber West Midlands North West
- 42. Net Fiscal balance from 1999 to Financial Year ending 2016 (£ million) -60,000 -30,000 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 UK Greater South East (London + SE +EE) Rest of England (NE + NW + YATH + EM + WM + SW) N.Ireland/ Scotland/ Wales
- 43. Exports of Services 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Construction Retail (excluding motor trades) Primary and utilities Other services Administrative and support services Wholesale and motor trades Manufacturing Insurance and pension services Transport Information and communication Travel Real estate, professional, scientific and technical Financial Value of Services Exports £(m) East of England London REST of UK £m
- 44. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Peterborough Cambridge South Cambridgeshire Huntingdonshire Fenland East Cambridgeshire GVA (£millions) Total GVA (Balanced), Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority, 2016
- 45. Share of residents by highest level of qualification. Source: APS Jan-Dec 2015
- 46. Industrial specialisation Location quotient by industrial sector, 2015 Cambridge
- 47. Earnings by Workplace & Residence Median weekly earnings for full-time employees 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Peterborough Fenland East Cambridgeshire Huntingdonshire Cambridge South Cambridgeshire Workplace Earnings (£) 2016 (provisional) Resident Earnings (£) 2016 (provisional)
- 48. Index of Multiple Deprivation
- 49. Economies of Ale
Editor's Notes
- So: the Office for National Statistics (ONS) which is the executive office of the UK Statistics Authority and the largest producer of official statistics in the UK the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) which is the regulatory arm of the UK Statistics Authority. It assesses official statistics for compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, reports on system-wide issues and on how statistics are used, celebrating when the standards are upheld and challenging publicly when they are not. And other departments who produce their own statistics.
- Full range of our stats. Most popular? Baby names.
- Now turn to transformation.
- Thinking back to that circular flow of GDP, can measure in three ways. In theory they are the same. In practice not quite.
- New data sources and technology allow us to measure better the economy in each of the three ways. Expenditure: sales data Output: VAT (more later) Income: PAYE (more later)
- Emphasise speed, coverage granularity. Important for e.g. Brexit work, industrial strategy.
- Emphasise speed, coverage granularity. Important for e.g. Brexit work, industrial strategy.
- Also mention ESAS
- Charts shown in the presentation cover the latest available data. Many of the charts are taken from economic commentary and statistical bulletins for each topic which are available on the ONS website. Search “economic commentary” or topic title.
- Time series chart of GDP growth Blue bars represent quarter on quarter (LHS, %) Yellow line represents quarter on same quarter a year ago (RHS, %) UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.6% between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018 and Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018. All four sectors of output contributed positively to growth in Quarter 3 2018, with the largest contribution from the services industries at 0.3 percentage points. Household spending grew by 0.5% while business investment fell by 1.2% between Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2018. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth in Quarter 3 2018, driven by a 2.7% rise in exports, while imports were flat.
- In this chart –UK is the yellow line. The path of growth since the recession shows that Italy, Japan and Germany experienced larger peak-to-trough falls in GDP than the UK, Canada, France and the US. Of the countries recovered to their pre-crisis levels of GDP, the UK took the joint-longest along with Japan. Italy has yet to recover to its pre-crisis level. Over 40 quarters (10 years) after the start of the recession, the chart shows the US and Canada have grown the most since the recession, followed by Germany and the UK.
- The economic well-being dashboard is published within the Economic Well-being release. Figures above illustrate economic well-being indicators, UK, Quarter 2 (Apr - Jun 2018). Next release 8 January. Useful info-graphic style dashboard which shows the trends in each variable, and most also have a green or red arrow showing whether they are moving in a positive or negative direction The variables on the dashboard generally take a household or per capita perspective, for example, on the top row we have GDP per head, net national disposable income per head. There are also wealth characteristics in the dashboard. I’d like to draw your attention to the middle chart on the 2nd row - which is a behavioural question. This uses data from the Eurobarometer Consumer Survey, conducted by GFK on behalf of the European Commission and asks about people’s perceptions of their financial situation. So, again I recommend you have a look at the economic wellbeing release each quarter if you are interested in monitoring these wider measures of economic performance.
- Chart shows different measures of prices over time. The yellow line is input PPI, which grew by 10.0% in the 12 months to October 2018, slowing from 10.5% in the 12 months to September 2018. The dark blue line shows output PPI which can be thought of as factory gate prices. Output PPI grew by 3.3% in the 12 months to October 2018, up from 3.1% in the 12 months to September 2018. The largest upward contributions to the increase in the annual rate came from petroleum, and clothing, textiles and leather. The blue bars show CPIH which is consumer prices with owner occupiers’ housing costs included. CPIH was 2.2% in October 2018, unchanged from September 2018.
- The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.2% in October 2018, unchanged from September 2018. The large downward contributions to the change in the 12-month rate from food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, and some transport elements were offset by upward contributions from rising petrol, diesel and domestic gas prices. Other smaller upward contributions came from items in the miscellaneous goods and services, recreation and culture, and communication sectors.
- This chart looks at the relative house price growth since the economic downturn across various regions, compared with AWE regular pay growth and CPIH. As you can see the regions all experienced a dip in average house prices between January 2008 and May 2009, after which Cambridge (shown by the dark blue line) in particular began to recover fairly strongly. So by the end of 2009 to early 2010, average house prices in Cambridge had already returned to pre-recession levels, and by mid 2013 prices in these areas had also outpaced CPIH and AWE increases since the recession. In contrast, average house prices in Great Britain (shown by the yellow line) returned to their pre-recession level in mid 2013.
- Estimates from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show the unemployment rate continues its general decline and the employment rate continues to rise generally. In the three months to September 2018, the employment rate (for those aged 16 to 64) was 75.5%, slightly higher than 75.0% a year earlier – with 31.2m currently employed in the UK. (LHS) In contrast 1.4 million people were unemployed with a rate of 4.2%.
- Compared with the same quarter a year ago, labour productivity, on an output per hour basis, grew by 1.4% and has been growing for the past seven consecutive quarters. A 1.4% growth, compared with the same quarter in the previous year, is significantly lower than the long period of average productivity growth prior to the economic downturn, and represents a continuation of the UK's “productivity puzzle”. Productivity in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018, as measured by output per hour, was 17.6% below its pre-downturn trend – or, equivalently, productivity would have been 21.4% higher had it followed this pre-downturn trend
- Increase in demand for regional and local statistics to understand the economy and society at a sub-national level
- Release date: 26 April 2018 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/compendium/economicreview/april2018
- Differences in types of industry that have created growth pre-and post recession.
- Only half of 40 NUTS 2 regions had increase in real productivity 2007-2016 NI 1% increase in GVA, 2% decline in hours worked. NOTE APS/LFS show slightly higher hours worked growth than prod hours.
- Release date : February 7th 2018 Next release date: TBA City region, LEP, NUTS2, NUTS3 Real data – NUTS2 only
- Release date: 26 April 2018 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/compendium/economicreview/april2018 This Figure shows firm-level productivity data for the non-financial business economy for regions and countries. It shows the proportion of firms at different levels of gross value added (GVA) per worker. The distributions are skewed to the right, indicating that in all the regions there are fewer firms with high productivity levels than firms with lower productivity levels.
- London clear firm level productivity advantage in both service sector categories.
- Release date: 26 April 2018 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/compendium/economicreview/april2018
- Release date: 26 April 2018 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/compendium/economicreview/april2018
- Release date: 1 August 2018 Next release: TBA Country and regional public sector finances: Financial year ending March 2016 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/2015to2016 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/2016to2017
- Release date : 24 October 2018Next release : TBA https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/datasets/regionalisedestimatesofukserviceexports
- Local Authority GVA for all LA’s in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority: LA’s Cambridge, East Cambridgeshire, Fenland, Huntingdonshire and South Cambridgeshire make up NUTS3 region Cambridgeshire CC (East of England) Peterborough is in the NUTS 3 Peterborough (North East ) Regional Gross Value Added (Balanced) by Local Authority in the UK – Trevor Fenton Release date : 20th December 2017 Next release : December 2018
- Jan-Dec 2015
- The spatial distribution of industries in Great Britain: 2015 Regional and local industrial specialisms and the spatial distribution of industries in Great Britain Release date: 28 March 2017 Location quotient data and industrial specialisation for local authorities Location quotients can be interpreted as a local measure of geographical concentration of industries. They are calculated as the quotient between the local share of employee jobs in a specific industry and the local share of national employee jobs. LQ = (Ei,r / Ei ) / (Er / E)