Positive vision of win-win-win actions to avoid climate catastrophe, end mass poverty, reduce species extinction, by using web-based social collaboration tools and collective intelligence actions.
Michael P Totten A Climate For Life Mesh Talk Bioneer Los Angeles 12 09 09
1. A CLIMATE FOR LIFE MESH
Or, How Many Bits & Wits (Collective
Intelligence) Does It Take to Turn Global
Climate Threats into Sustainable
Prosperity and Well-Being
Presentation to the
Bioneers of Los Angeles
December 09, 2009
Michael P. Totten (mtotten@conservation.org) Chief Advisor,
Climate, Energy & Green Technologies, CI’s Center for
Environmental Leadership in Business
4. Observed Antarctic Warming Trend ( C/decade) from 1957-2006
Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science., Ian Allison, Nathan Bindoff, Robert Bindschadler, Peter Cox, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre ,
Matthew England, Jane Francis, Nicolas Gruber, Alan Haywood , David Karoly , Georg Kaser, Corinne Le Quéré, Tim Lenton, Michael Mann, Ben McNeil, Andy Pitman, Stefan Rahmstorf , Eric
Rignot, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stephen Schneider, Steven Sherwood, Richard Somerville, Konrad Steffen, Eric Steig, Martin Visbeck, Andrew Weaver., www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/
5. Trend in Ocean Surface Temperature ( C, 1959-2008)
Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science., Ian Allison, Nathan Bindoff, Robert Bindschadler, Peter Cox, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre ,
Matthew England, Jane Francis, Nicolas Gruber, Alan Haywood , David Karoly , Georg Kaser, Corinne Le Quéré, Tim Lenton, Michael Mann, Ben McNeil, Andy Pitman, Stefan Rahmstorf ,
Eric Rignot, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stephen Schneider, Steven Sherwood, Richard Somerville, Konrad Steffen, Eric Steig, Martin Visbeck, Andrew Weaver.,
www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/
8. Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 Trajectory
GtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm
Based on 6 Celsius
climate sensitivity
Main difference between two projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion
Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/
9. Where the world needs to go:
energy-related CO2 emissions per capita
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.
Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
10. CLIMATE CATASTROPHE THREAT
THE GOOD & GREAT NEWS AND
THE BAD & WORSE NEWS
The GOOD news is there does not appear to be any scientific,
technological or economic barrier to achieving atmospheric
stabilization of GHGs at a level low enough to avoid global climate
catastrophe – or 350 ppm CO2.
The GREAT news is it appears feasible this could be done while
growing a prosperous economy, ending poverty, and halting species
extinction and ecosystem destruction.
The BAD news is the estimated net present value of climate change
impacts from BAU (business-as-usual) is $1240 TRILLION, assuming
stabilization of CO2 at between 550 and 800 ppm by 2100.
The even WORSE news is that humanity is on pace to exceed 850 ppm.
11. Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
12. CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020
Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 for
developing countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or
about half the €215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
13. Adopting Win-Win-Win Portfolios
Use portfolio of multiple-benefit actions to become
climate positive and create new marketing opportunities
Abundant ICT Sector Market Expansion Opportunities
Radical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green Power Biodiversity Protection
14. Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies
1) RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Pursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous
improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary
benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water &
resources)
2) PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMS
Add conservation carbon offset options to portfolio
that deliver triple benefits (climate protection,
biodiversity preservation, and promotion of
community sustainable development)
3) ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELS
Select only verifiable „green power/fuels‟ that are
climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow
poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts
15. 1824 Liters per year 4.8 tons CO2 emissions per
(10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year) = year
~34€ ($48) to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation at 7 € ($10) per tCO2
Adds 1.6 pence per liter
16. Geological storage (CCS) vs U.S. fossil Electricity CO2
Ecological storage (REDD) mitigation cost annually
Carbon Mitigation Cost (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
$ per ton CO2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
$50
$45 ~$100 billion
$40 ~3 ¢ per kWh
$35
$30
$25 Reduced Emissions Deforestation
$20 & Degradation (REDD)
$15
$10
~$18 billion
$5
~0.5 ¢ per kWh
$- 0
CCS REDD
Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
17. U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7.50 per ton CO2
2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions 1/2 cent per kWh
$18 billion/yr REDD trade
Poverty reduction
Prevent Species loss
A A win-win-win
win-win-win
Tropical Deforestation 2007 outcome
outcome
13 million hectares burned
7 billion tons CO2 emissions
18. At the Governors Global Climate Summit in Sept., California Governor Schwarzenegger and
10 other governors from the United States, Brazil and Indonesia are sending a letter to U.S.
President Obama, Brazilian President Lula da Silva, and Indonesian President Yudhoyono
urging them to include forest protection in international and national climate change policies .
20. A carbon tax applied to emissions from agriculture and land-use
change would encourage protection of natural resources
Source: Wise, M. A., K. V. Calvin, A. M. Thomson, L.E. Clarke, B. Bond- Lamberty, R. D. Sands, S. J. Smith, A. C. Janetos, and J. A. Edmonds. 2009a.
“Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy.” Science 324 (5931): 1183–86.
21. So Much to be Done
So Little Time
Who You Gonna Call?
23. ICT/IP Companies Get IT!
Bits Can Deliver Services Better than Atoms
The key challenge is transforming last century’s
pervasive legacy regulations, policies, and
incentives for expanding resource supplies to
harnessing this century’s opportunities for
delivering the myriad smarter, greener ICT-based
services.
24.
25. The WIKIPEDIA MODEL:
In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees,
Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the
Encyclopedia Britannica,
Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer editors and
content authors,
Translating content into 150+ languages, and
Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
26. Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus
http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/
Large-scale distributed work-force projects are
impractical in theory, but doable in reality.
The Internet-connected population worldwide watches
roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.
www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo
oking-for-the-mouse.html
One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year
worth of peer participation.
27. efficiency solar
wind
finance
Smart grid
food
mobility light
wiki
tools
Eco
services
learning
Clean water
28. Poverty Reduction & Elimination
Climate Mitigation Financing Services
Preventing Species Extinction
Public Incentives
Smart Energy Services
Avoiding Oil & Resource Wars
IP platform for creating A Climate for Life
Focus+Context Visual Foraging Tools
Smart ICT
Utility Smart
Services
29. Climate Mesh Template for Green Development Strategies
= hyperlink to Mesh resources
Knowledge tools
Knowledge Needs
CLICKS AWAY
Web access, share,
add, distribute,
produce, collaborate
around shared vision
30. Climate Mesh for Raising the Bar
Going Beyond Reinvention of the Wheel
• Interdisciplinary linkages
• Visual salience of connected issues
• Easier exploration of nested hierarchies for user to explore without
getting lost
• Recognizing relationships previously unaware of
• Relevance ranking for surfacing best-in-play examples (and best-to-
avoid alerts)
• Multi-faceted computation and visualization tools
• Capacity to examine and compare multi-criteria and multi-attribute
challenges, problems, solutions
• Access to continuously evolving results, learning curves, experience
curves, insights, understandings, and capability to communicate,
query, converse on findings
• Accessible by smart phones & netbooks worldwide
31. Trans-disciplinary Connections & Linkages for Leveraging Greater Insight & Value
End-Use
Efficiency options
Utility services
Climate
ICT tools Mitigation
Reduced
Deforestation Solar
Photovoltaics
32. Trans-disciplinary Connections & Linkages for Leveraging Greater Value
IRP including End-
Use Efficiency
Utility Services
Incentives
Decoupling
regulation Onsite Solar PV
33. “Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to
harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants”
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
USA minus CA & NY
Per Capital
Electricity 165 GW
Consumption Coal
Power
New York Plants
California
[EPPs]
Californian‟s have
net savings of
$1,000 per family
Utility’s Earnings Go Up even as
Revenues Go Down
Customers’ Bills Go Down even as
Rates Go Up
34. More Retail Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs
Less Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants
Less Coal Power Plants
Less Coal Rail Cars
Less Coal Mines
35. Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –
The Power in the Photon Bitstream
36. Earth receives more solar energy
every 90 minutes than humanity
consumes all year
37. In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by
applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots,
along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use
scenarios.
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new
land to make PV our primary energy source!
38. Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of
total US electricity from brownfields
90% of America’s current electricity could
be supplied with PV systems built in the
“brown-fields”— the estimated 2+
million hectares of abandoned industrial
sites that exist in our nation’s cities.
Cleaning Up
Brownfield
Sites w/
PV solar
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
39. Economics of Commercial BIPV
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV
(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and
Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Material Economic
Beijing Shanghai
Replaced Measure
NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237
Polished BCR 2.33 2.14
Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1
NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024
BCR 1.89 1.70
Aluminum
PBP (yrs) 2 2
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
40. Economics of Commercial BIPV
Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings and savings from
displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
41. Attributes of breakeven PV systems
Attributes & incentives include:
Compensation for power at retail
electric rates
Tax credits
Financing, leasing, and depreciation
options
Net-metering options and/or rate-
based incentives
Building credits for architectural
applications
Willingness to pay for clean power and
innovation
Quality of solar resource and customer
load match
Progressive state government,
regulatory, and utility support.
The best niche markets are the
locations that have the best
combinations of these attributes
and incentives.
Source: Christy Herig, Customer-Sited Photovoltaics Focusing on Markets that Really Shine, NREL, www.nrel.gov/research/pv/cust-sited.html
45. Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map
algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank
expansion of solar panel locations.
46. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Solar-battery
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Wind-battery
turbine spacing
Cellulosic ethanol
Corn ethanol
Wind & Solar experts
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in
plug-in electric driven vehicles
WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO
POWER VEHICLES
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
47. 95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 3MW wind turbines
Platform footprint
6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi2
Total WindFarm spacing area
37,500 mi2
Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
CO2 U.S. electricity sector
40% USA total GHG emissions
48. Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about 70%
of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4
to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in American
history for Great Plains rural
communities, while also enabling one of
world’s largest restorations of native
prairie ecosystems
How?
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains
= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
49. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
non-wind farm Wind profits
windpower farm
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm non-wind farm
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
50. Montana South Dakota
Great Plains Multi-TW
Wind Resources in Varying
Stages of ICT/IPC
Technical, Ecological,
Wyoming Nebraska Economic, Financial
Assessment, Mapping,
Visualization, Installation,
Operation & Post-
Iowa Production Options
Colorado
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Texas
51. Potential Synergisms
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil
carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2
mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);
2) Re-introducing free-
ranging bison into these
prairie grasslands -- which
naturally co-evolved together
for millennia -- generating a
potential revenue stream
from marketing high-value
organic, free-range beef.
Also More Resilient to
Climate-triggered
Droughts
53. National Green & REDD
Economic Development
Strategies launched in
2009 by the Presidents
of Suriname and
Guyana
WIN-WIN-WIN PORTFOLIOS
Low-Deforestation, Low-Carbon
Development Strategies, using REDD
carbon savings traded for revenues to
help fund green economic development.
ICT/IP intensive approach could create
open source public knowledge assets for
other nations and cities to leverage.
54. Suriname
• 165,000 km2 in size
• 4 times size of Netherlands
• 470,000 people, 80% live in
Paramaribo
• 25% of the population live
on less than $2 a day
A South American nation
with a population the size
of a small city.
Paramaribo
55. Guyana
• 215,000 km2 in size
• About the size of Oregon
• 770,000 people, 90% reside
on coastal strip (~10% of
Guyana land area)
• 17% of the population live
on less than $2 a day
A South American nation
with a population the size
of Portland, OR
56. Offshore Wind Farms
National Green & REDD
Green Bldgs Economic Development Strategy
REDD Carbon Revenues
Utility financial incentives
Standards
motors appliances
Spatial
mapping
Trust fund
57. Other Users of the
Open Source Climate
Mesh public
knowledge assets and
resources
www.seattle.gov/mayor/climate/
More than 1000
U.S. Cities
Over 1000 mayors
representing 75% of U.S.
cities with 30,000 people or
more are committed to
reducing their CO2 emissions
below 1990 levels
58. Other Users of the
Open Source Climate
Mesh public
knowledge assets and
resources
More than 2000
global companies
doing GHG
inventories
59. Other Users of the Open
Source Climate Mesh public
knowledge assets and
resources
Over 500 U.S. colleges
61. End-Use Efficiency
Onsite & field-erected
Utility rebate solar power systems
programs
Local, state, federal
Financial Incentives Economic Payback
Calculator
63. Wind farms on Great Plains
Smart Grid and Plug-in Electric Vehicles
Water savings
Transmission lines
Utility financial incentives
64. Microfinance village water
Water challenges of poor
Waterborne infectious diseases
Village UV water
UV water
purification businesses
purification
65. Bottom of the Pyramid Growth
$300 Billion Capital Needed to MicroFinance Poor Out of Poverty
Creating a World
Without Poverty
Social Business and the
future of Capitalism
Three to four $100 microfinance loans enables most Grameen
Bank borrowers to move out of poverty
66. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
67. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
68. Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power
(Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)
Women are enjoying the
hazardless and hassle free
lighting system in their daily
life.
They are getting opportunities to
earn extra money by utilizing
their time after dusk by sewing
or poultry farming.
69. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
70. Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking
dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach
adulthood stunted for good.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
71. 4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust
physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of
dollars in lost income to the poor
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
72. A new water disinfector for the
developing world’s poor
DESIGN CRITERIA
• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for
disinfection
• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1
ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1
m3)
• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor
• Reliable, Mature components
• Can treat unpressurized water
• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds
• Low maintenance: 4x per year
• No overdose risk
• Fail-safe
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,
Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-
water%202008.pdf WaterHealth Intl device
73. WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other
Treatment Options
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
74. WaterHealth International
Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of
our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of
operating and maintaining the equipment and facility.
Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus
creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities
for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water
to outlying areas.
And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user
fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
75. E-bikes are now among the cheapest & cleanest
travel mode options in China
Source: Cherry, C. R. 2007. “Electric Two-Wheelers in China: Analysis of Environmental, Safety, and Mobility Impacts.” Ph.D. thesis. UC Berkeley; Weinert, J.,
C. Ma, and C. Cherry. 2007. “The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons for Rapid Growth.” Transportation 34 (3): 301–18.
76. Energy R&D Expenditure 1974-2007
Source: IEA 2008a; IEA, http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/rd.asp Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),
http://www.oecd.org/statsportal .
77. Climate change is not a priority yet
Source: Gallup Poll, March 5-8, 2009, www.gallup.com/poll/106660/Little-Increase-Americans-Global-Warming-Worries.aspx.
79. Small local adjustments for big global benefits: Switching from SUVs to fuel-
Efficient passenger cars in the USA alone would nearly offset the emissions
generated by providing energy to 1.6 billion more people
Source: BTS (Bureau of Transportation Statistics). 2008. Key Transportation Indicators November 2008. Washington, DC: U. S. Department of Transportation.
80. If we want to hold CO2 even to 550 ppmv, even with
aggressive energy efficiency we will need as much
clean, carbon‐free energy within the next 40 years,
online, as the entire oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear
industries today combined – 10 to 15 terawatts. This
is not changing a few light bulbs in Fresno, this is
building an industry comparable to 50 ExxonMobils.
Professor Nate Lewis, Caltech
81. Innovation Intensity of U.S. Industrial Sectors
(R&D investment as percentage of annual revenues)
82. Intensive beef production is a heavy producer of
greenhouse gas emissions
Source: Williams, Audsley, and Sandars 2006.Determining the Environmental Burdens and Resource Use in the Production of Agricultural and Horticultural
Commodities. London: Department for Environmental Food and Rural Affairs.
Note: The figure shows CO2 equivalent emissions in kilograms resulting from the production (in an industrial country) of 1 kilogram of a specific product. The
car and road image conveys the number of kilometers one must drive in a gasoline- powered car averaging 11.5 kilometers a liter to produce the given
amount of CO2e emissions. For example, producing 1 kilogram of beef and driving 79.1 kilometers both result in 16 kilograms of emissions.