green and smart techologies for profitably anda positively resolving climate destabilization, mass poverty, species extinction, oil wars and resource conflicts. And accelerating solutions through wiki-meshups.
Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08
A Dose of Cognitive Surplus Towards
A Climate for Life
migrate to a
More absolute poverty than any time in human history
1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours
Humanity’s Climate Footprint
1100 Within grandchild’s lifespan
Present atmospheric CO2
concentration not exceeded past
Your grandchildren’s lifespan 400,000 years, and likely not
during past 20 million years.
Your children’s lifespan
Your lifespan Global temperature rising 15 to
60 times faster than historical
Your parents lifespan
Oceans more acidic than past
6th largest extinction – 100 times the natural background rate
NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLE
First documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report
A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,
Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint
Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-
based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000
Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus
Large-scale distributed work-force projects are
impractical in theory, but doable in reality.
The Internet-connected population worldwide
watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.
One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per
year worth of peer participation.
The WIKIPEDIA MODEL:
In 6 years and with only 6 employees,
Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than
the Encyclopedia Britannica,
Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 70,000 volunteer
editors and content authors,
Translating content into 140+ languages, and
Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
• General purpose tool for gathering
and distributing knowledge swiftly
• Process not product, never finished
• Error-correcting process leads to
better articles, on average, over time
• Every web page latent community
able to be enhanced and grown with
conversation, sharing, plug-ins
• Cumulated insights with annotated
Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions
oil gas coal forests
geothermal agriculture Assumes:
1% 2% 1% 5%
10% 1) Global
per year all
wind century long;
3% per year
solar carbon cap &
15% carbon tax
CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)
BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –
113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.
SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800
TW-yrs). Save $50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.
Envision eliminating the need for 13.8 billion coal railcars this century.
OR, Envision eliminating the need for 6,700 Chernobyl reactors.
OR, Envision eliminating the need for 13,800 Glen Canyon dams.
OR, Envision eliminating the need for 17 million LNG tanker shipments.
“Leasing”CO2 emissions per year
Gigatons global CO2 Services
Billion tons CO2 Some 5 billion tons CO2 per year
25 in CO2 offset services available
in LDCs, increasing their
revenues by billions of dollars
annually ; and saving ODCs
billions of dollars.
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
13 million hectares burned each year
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75
ExaJoules of Energy Supply
$700 billion per year in energy bill savings
Envision 18 million coal railcars
that would wrap around the world
seven times each year.
Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil
supertanker shipments per year.
Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.
$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value
Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account
CFL factories displace powerplants
The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million
CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will
produce lighting services sufficient to displace several
billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments
used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.
source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991]
Less Large Power Plants & Mines
More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Coal Power Plants
Less Coal Rail Cars
Less Coal Mines
Biggest Efficiency Option of Them All:
Supplier Chain Factories & Products
Demand Facts Efficiency Outcomes
Industrial electric motor systems 2 trillion kWh per year savings –
consume 40% of electricity equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be
worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in built through 2030 worldwide.
China – over 7 trillion kWh per
year. $240 billion savings per decade.
Retrofit savings of 30%, New $200 to $400 billion benefits per
savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh. decade in avoided emissions of
GHGs, SO2 and NOx.
Support SEEEM (Standards SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive
for Energy Efficiency of market transformation strategy to promote efficient
Electric Motor Systems) industrial electric motor systems worldwide
$50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction
Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
Green Buildings – ecologically
sustainable, economically superior,
higher occupant satisfaction
The Costs and
of Green Buildings,
Public library – North Carolina A Report to
Force, Oct. 2003, by
Greg Kats et al.
$500 to $700
per m2 net
Heinz Foundation Ecology Center,
Green Building, PA Ohio
Daylighting could displace 100s GWs
Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,
consume half of a commercial building
Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time
lighting, eliminating massive amount of power
plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in
Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
High-E Windows displacing pipelines
Full use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan
pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as
well as accrue over $15 billion per year of
savings on energy bills.
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Key to
harnessing Retail Efficiency Power Plants (EPPs)
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
USA minus CA & NY
Electricity 165 GW
New York Plants
net savings of
$1,000 per family
California proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost
efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and
lower GHG emissions.
California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share
IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES
Brick house construction is still widely used in many
rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildings
land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year,
and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year.
The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal
for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing
chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of
premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.
Food, Fuel, Species
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha
of land may be required for
Combined with the 800 million ha of
additional land needed for medium
growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens
intact ecosystems and biodiversity-
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Wind & Solar experts
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND
NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm non-wind farm
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 2MW wind turbines
Large Wyoming Strip Mine
Total Wind spacing area
Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
CO2 U.S. electricity sector
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about
70% of Great Plains land area, it
contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross
Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in
American history for Great Plains
rural communities, while also
enabling one of world’s largest
restorations of native prairie
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains
= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil
carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from
selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);
2) Re-introducing free-
ranging bison into these
prairie grasslands --
which naturally co-
evolved together for
millennia -- generating a
potential revenue stream
from marketing high-
value organic, free-range
Also More Resilient
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met
simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on
roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of
buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios.
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of
new land to make PV our primary energy source!
Solar PV satisfying 90% of total
US electricity from brownfields
90% of America’s current electricity
could be supplied with PV systems
built in the “brown-fields”— the
estimated 5 million acres of
abandoned industrial sites that
exist in our nation’s cities.
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
Economics of Commercial BIPV
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV
(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and
Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237
Polished BCR 2.33 2.14
Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1
NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024
BCR 1.89 1.70
PBP (yrs) 2 2
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of
Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
Economics of Commercial BIPV
Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings and savings from
displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage
and bi-directional power flows could stabilize
large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power
with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for
wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating
reserves or storage for wind.
Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J.
Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary
PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel
84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or
73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33
miles on average
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL
A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion
gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million
barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL
~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx,
40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx
nationwide (from higher coal generation).
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and
Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
migrate to a
Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption
becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.
Closing the Loop – Reducing Use of Virgin Resources
& Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients
E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/